Larry Fitzgerald isn’t happy with the number of balls being thrown his way. In PPR leagues, Fitz is averaging 16.3 fantasy points through two games, which isn’t bad, but he’s only averaging 53 yards per game, well off last season’s average of 89 ypg. If he weren’t catching TDs, fantasy owners might be a little panicked.

Mike Bell is likely to miss Week 3, at least according to Jay Glazer, who is usually right about such things. Pierre Thomas is coming back from his own knee sprain and was active on Sunday, so if Bell misses, he’ll have a shot to post some nice numbers against Buffalo if the Saints give him his usual workload. The good news for Bell is that an MRI revealed no structural damage.

Troy Williamson is out for the year. The Jags also cut Nate Hughes, so the starting duties are left up to Torry Holt and Mike Sims-Walker (who posted some nice numbers in garbage time on Sunday). Sims-Walker is worth a pickup in most 12-team leagues. Let’s just hope he can stay healthy.

HC McDaniels says that B. Marshall is a rotational player. This is not what we wanted to hear. It’s not clear why McDaniels is rotating his WRs when Marshall and Eddie Royal are far and away the Broncos’ two best wideouts. Royal has been getting consistent snaps, so this looks like some sort of punishment for Marshall. Not good. Fantasy owners can feel free to bench Marshall if they have a better option waiting in the wings. It looks like Marshall’s days of 10-15 targets a game are long gone, at least for now.

Saints beat writer Jeff Duncan speculates that Pierre Thomas’s injury is worse than the team is letting on. Duncan says that HC Sean Payton comes from the Belichick school of releasing injury information to the media. If Thomas doesn’t play, Mike Bell is a decent start even though the Eagles are pretty good defensively. Philly gave up 72 rushing yards to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and the Saints have a much better passing attack than Carolina does. This should keep the Eagles off balance and open up some running lanes. Assuming Thomas sits, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bell had 80-90 yards rushing and a TD in Week 2.

Jamal Lewis probable to start. Rookie James Davis is still questionable with a shoulder injury, so Lewis should be a serviceable start against the Broncos, who gave up 108 total yards and a TD to Cedric Benson last week.

Redskins’ beat writer thinks the team will take more shots downfield in Week 2. This would be good news for Santana Moss, who is a big-play receiver. The Giants smothered him in Week 1, but he should have an easier time getting open against a sketchy Rams defense.

HC Haley wants to get the running game on track. Well, of course he does. But it’s good to hear that Haley isn’t ignoring the problem. The Raiders really struggled against the run last season, but played better in Week 1 against the Chargers, so we’re not sure LJ is a sure bet for a good game. He’s startable if you’re in a pinch, however.

Matt Schaub is close to 100 percent. The Titans gave up a lot of yards through the air to Ben Roethlisberger last week, so there is a possibility that Schaub could have a bounce-back game this week. I’m not excited about his prospects, but he’s not a terrible start.

HC McDaniels plans to spread the ball around. He doesn’t want to name a WR1 because he doesn’t want to get into the habit of forcing the ball to a guy that’s double-teamed. In Week 1, Marshall led the way with seven targets, while Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokley had four targets apiece. Expect Marshall and Royal to lead the team in targets this season.

Steelers to use rotation at RB. Willie Parker will get two series and Rashard Mendenhall one until one player gets a hot hand. Mewelde Moore will be in on third downs and in no huddle situations. It was a little more than a week ago that HC Mike Tomlin said that Willie Parker was his running back. A lot can change in a week.

Vikings intent on involving Bernard Berrian more. Berrian should be a nice play this week against the Lions, but he and Brett Favre haven’t had a lot of time to work together and it showed in Week 1 against the Browns.

Knowshon Moreno says he feels 100 percent. He also says that he ran tentatively against the Broncos, but should be ready to go against the Browns, who gave up a ton of yards to Adrian Peterson last week.

Matt Cassel is feeling much better. The Chiefs haven’t committed to announcing him as the starter, but most of the signs point to that being the case. The Raiders are actually pretty tough against the pass, so if you can hold off on starting Cassel, do so.

LaDainian Tomlinson sits out again. Given the horrible matchup against the Ravens, it would be wise to avoid using LT2 this week. If he doesn’t play and you have Darren Sproles, he could be used as a flex or as a RB2 if you’re in a PPR league.

Brandon Marshall refuses to answer the media’s questions. This could be a sign that Marshall’s attitude isn’t as good as it has seemed over the past couple of weeks and that he’s headed for a meltdown. It could also be a sign that he blames the media for all the problems he’s having in Denver and he’s going to punish them for it. Marshall has too much talent to ignore.

T.O. wants his QB to go deep. “…Trent has to better assess what he’s seeing out there and take some shots down the field. We’re going to do that, and by no means was that the reason that we lost the game.” That’s not quite the controversial Owens that we saw in Philly and Dallas, but we’ll see if it develops. The Bills should have some opportunities to go deep against the Bucs, who were torched by T.O.’s old team last week.

HC McDaniels says that Brandon Marshall’s attitude has been “great” since returning from suspension. He went on to say that Marshall could “absolutely” contribute in Week 1. Marshall’s stock is still a little shaky, but this is exactly what his owners were looking for coming out of last week’s suspension. He’s a solid start against a traditionally bad Cincy defense.

Pierre Thomas misses Wednesday practice, likely out for Week 1. I wrote about this yesterday and suggested that owners pick up Mike Bell to start against the Lions on Sunday. It’s a great matchup and Bell proved in Denver that he is more than capable of posting good numbers.

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Looking at the Brandon Marshall situation with a purely fantasy eye, his suspension for the remainder of the preseason may create an environment where the troublesome wide receiver becomes a value on draft day.

After news of the suspension broke, a fellow owner in my slow auction league nominated him for bidding. I won him for $21, which was 5% of my total payroll (or about two-thirds his pre-suspension value). Here’s what Joe Bryant (of Footballguys.com) had to say in a recent email:

Marshall will probably fall out of the top 100 picks in most drafts now. We would still take a chance on him around the 9th/10th round range in PPR leagues, because if this really goes completely sour, you can cut him for the WW flavor of the week, but if he straightens out, he’ll be the rare top 20 WR you can get out of the top 100.

But this hasn’t been the case, at least not yet. According to Antsports, in 12-team redraft leagues from 8/29-8/31, his ADP dropped from the late third into the early fifth. I had a keeper league that drafted this Sunday, and Marshall went in the middle of the sixth. (I realize that in a keeper league, his value will be somewhat higher because of his long-term value in the league.)

Other owners are going to be scared off by Marshall’s ridiculously bad offseason. But the bottom line is that he’s in a contract year, and if he wants to score a big payday, he’s going to need to show up and act like a professional. At least this what I hope his agent is telling him on a daily basis during his suspension.

There are some indications that the Broncos are willing to work with Marshall this year. The suspension itself was only for the preseason, and if he behaves, he could very well be on the field for the team’s opener. This is a clear sign that the Broncos value Marshall and what he can do for the team. They are not yet at the point where he’s too much of a headache to deal with. Moreover, Josh McDaniels spoke about the situation at the most recent preseason game and he seemed optimistic about the WR’s short-term future.

The driving force behind Marshall’s future is Marshall himself. If he wants a fat contract, he needs to shut his mouth and play out his current deal. If he performs up to his usual standard, some team will forget about all of this and will give him the kind of contract he’s looking for. From a fantasy point of view, this makes Marshall a risk, but a worthwhile risk in the middle rounds. If he realizes his situation, swallows his pride, and acts like a professional, he can get the kind of money he wants. This is why I’m optimistic about Brandon Marshall in 2009.

Given what we know right now, his ADP of 5.05 sounds about right. I’d take him after Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson, but before Santonio Holmes, Antonio Bryant and Santana Moss.

Of course, he could completely flake out and get suspended for the entire season, a la Keyshawn Johnson.

Don’t you love fantasy football?

Yet another fantasy football season is over, and while some owners are desperately trying to forget about 2008, I think it’s a fine time to make a few of my own New Year’s resolutions for 2009…

1. I will not draft a quarterback in the first five rounds.
Just take a look at this list of the top nine QBs (and their Average Draft Positions) this past August: Tom Brady (1.07), Peyton Manning (2.04), Tony Romo (2.12), Drew Brees (3.05), Carson Palmer (4.07), Ben Roethlisberger (5.04), Derek Anderson (6.01), Donovan McNabb (6.04) and Matt Hasselbeck (6.12). Only two of those players – Brees (QB1) and McNabb (QB8) – met or exceeded expectations, while just two others – Manning (QB6) and Romo (QB10) – had top 10 seasons. Heading into the season, I liked Jay Cutler (QB2), Aaron Rodgers (QB3) and David Garrard (QB9) in the middle rounds, but I seemed to always end up drafting a QB in the first four rounds. Roethlisberger (QB15) was my usual pick, but I did end up with Palmer, Brady, Romo and Brees on various squads as well. It’s hard to argue with Brees or Manning in the second round, but I’m not taking a QB that early in 2009 unless there is absolutely no one else I like on the board, and the chances of that happening are slim to none. I think it’s much better to load up on RBs, WRs and a TE early and then draft two or three QBs in the 7th-10th rounds.

2. I will no longer ignore RBBCs on draft day.
Back in July, I wrote a piece – “Five running games to avoid on draft day” – where I actually advised owners to avoid three backs that actually finished the season in the top 10. DeAngelo Williams (RB2), Steve Slaton (RB8) and Chris Johnson (RB9) were all mentioned in the post since, at the time, they were in the midst of some very murky Running Back By Committee (RBBC) situations. Go ahead and laugh, I don’t blame you. But don’t get me wrong – I’m still going to avoid the “lead” back in RBBCs situations when it’s time to draft. I realize now that the time to look at RBBCs is in the middle to late rounds, when those “lead” backs (in this case, Jonathan Stewart, Ahman Green and LenDale White) are already off the board. Granted, Stewart and Williams both were being picked in the mid-sixth, but Johnson was available in the 9th and Slaton was going in the 14th on draft day. It’s okay to grab a back that is part of a RBBC, but stay away from the first guy, and wait until the middle or late rounds to burn a flier on the backup.

3. I will not shy away from suspended players.
In August, both Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall were facing short suspensions. Since their value was depressed, Smith was going late in the third and Marshall was going in the late-fourth/early-fifth. Sure, it hurts to lose a game or two, but in the grand scheme, it’s better to get those two players on draft day and suck it up for a couple of weeks than it is to go with a less productive player just because it looks like you’ll get a full 16 games out of him. Marshall finished as WR4 and Smith as WR10, so they were both worth drafting in the third, regardless of suspension.

4. I will not underestimate rookie RBs.
Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Tim Hightower…the aforementioned Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson…these are all rookie RBs that exceeded draft day expectations. The funny thing is that other than Johnson, none of those guys were picked in the first round of the 2008 NFL Draft. There were four RBs drafted prior to Johnson: Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones and Rashard Mendenhall, and Stewart was the only one not to have an injury-plagued season. What can we learn from the five guys that did prosper? They were all drafted into a situation where there was a gaping hole at RB (Forte, Smith) or where there was an aging/unspectacular veteran ahead of them (Hightower, Slaton, Johnson). Heading into next season, I’m adding Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles to my list of players to watch, as they have the talent (and may have the opportunity) to prosper in 2009. Being an NFL running back is a young man’s game, and it’s wise to keep this in mind on draft day.

5. I pledge…yet again…to stay away from Denver running backs.
The Denver Broncos always seem to have a good running game. This season, despite burning through a number of backs, the Broncos still finished #2 in yards per carry (4.8) and #14 in rushing touchdowns (15). With that kind of consistent production, it’s always tempting to pick the top back in Denver on draft day. After several years of abstinence, I was smitten with the 2008 prospects for Selvin Young, who had several nice outings the previous season and looked to be on track for a nice year. But even when he was healthy, the bane of my fantasy football existence – Mike Shanahan – used Young in a RBBC along with Andre Hall and Michael Pittman, limiting his value. All three backs were eventually injured, and Peyton Hillis took over in midseason, finishing the year as the team’s top rusher even though he only got more than 10 carries in two games (and was himself injured in Week 14). No more, I say. No more! Wait, the Broncos fired Mike Shanahan? Okay, then this applies to his new team, wherever he lands.

6. I’ll grab Tony Gonzalez or Jason Witten in the fourth round, Antonio Gates or Dallas Clark in the fifth. Or Chris Cooley or maybe even Owen Daniels in the sixth. Otherwise, I’m going to wait on a TE.
I had Gonzo in my keeper league and boy, was it ever nice. Anyone who had Witten for the first half of the season knows what I mean. You can’t beat getting 10-20 points consistently from your TE. There’s no greater advantage in fantasy football. But tight ends are pretty spotty week-to-week, so much so that even this year’s TE3, Dallas Clark, had a very modest start to the season (and, if I remember correctly, he even hit a few waiver wires). It’s great to get a top guy, and right now that list includes six players (forget about the injury-prone Kellen Winslow, for now) – Gonzo, Witten, Gates, Clark, Cooley and Daniels – but once those “studs” are gone, it’s a crapshoot. Guys like John Carlson, Visanthe Shiancoe, Zach Miller, Dustin Keller, Bo Scaife, Greg Olsen, Tony Scheffler, Kevin Boss and Heath Miller all had stretches where they posted starter-quality numbers. If those top guys are gone, it’s better just to wait until the later rounds to snag a few guys with upside.

7. I will be wary of young, upstart running backs when there is a vet present that still has some gas left in the tank.
What do Earnest Graham, Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart and Selvin Young all have in common? Yes, they’re all NFL running backs, but they’re also youngish, upstart running backs that saw their fantasy value decrease due to a veteran presence in the same backfield – Warrick Dunn, Justin Fargas, DeAngelo Williams and Michael Pittman, respectively. In fact, Williams was a victim of this trend two seasons ago when everyone thought that he was about to blow up. Instead, DeShaun Foster continued to play a major role in the Carolina backfield. The grizzled Dunn is especially dangerous – he limited the upside of Jerious Norwood when he was in Atlanta before limiting Graham’s value in Tampa. Beware of the vet with a little gas left in the tank, especially if the team just signed them before the season.

8. I will always play Defensive Team By Waiver Wire.
Unless I’m in a league where I have to pay for each transaction, I am going to go with DTBWW. In my weekly, Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em, I gave at least two recommendations each week for defenses that were widely available on the waiver wire, and on the whole, those recommendations did rather well. My top pick averaged 9.8 points, while my second pick averaged 6.1 points. Combined, they averaged 7.9 points, which would yield 126 points on the season – the same total as the #6 DT (NYG) scored this year. My top picks scored at a rate that would have racked up 157 points, one point behind the #2 DT (TEN). I typically go with a defense that is playing at home and is facing a sack-happy offensive line. And usually it works out.

9. I will never again draft Chris Chambers.
I swore off Chris Chambers a long time ago, but somehow still ended up with him in my keeper league. Why did I draft him? It had something to do with the 51 catches, 833 yards and five TD he posted over a 14-game span with his new team after the Chargers traded for him last season. Specifically, it was the 23 catches, 398 yards and three TD he posted over the last five, including three playoff games against the best competition in the AFC. Something told me that the Chargers, by trading for Chambers, didn’t have faith that Vincent Jackson was capable of being the main guy. Something told me that with Gates hobbled in the preseason, Chambers could play a mighty big role in a San Diego offense that was bound to break out with an up-and-coming QB at the helm. Things started well in 2008, and although Chambers didn’t catch many passes over the first five games (11), he did find the endzone five times. After missing two games with an injury, he tallied just 22 catches for 236 yards and zero TD over the last nine games.

I’ve been playing fantasy football for 16 years now, and I’ve found that it’s important learn something each and every season. This year, I learned these nine lessons, but like most New Year’s resolutions, I’m sure it won’t take me too long to break a few. (Trust me though; I will never — ever — draft Chris Chambers again.)