With Blake Griffin sidelined for the first six weeks of the season, the race for ROY is suddenly wide open. Griffin will still have plenty of time to stake his claim, but for now, the spotlight is elsewhere. It was supposed to shift to Tyreke Evans in Sacramento, but the Bucks’ Brandon Jennings has stolen the show.

He nearly became the second rookie in the history of the NBA to register a triple-double in his first game when he posted 16 points, nine rebounds and nine assists against the Sixers. The next night, after a quiet first half where he only scored three points, he erupted for 16 points in the third quarter, leading Milwaukee to a huge comeback (and an eventual win) against the Pistons. Here’s a look at a phenomenal steal and finish that brought the house down…

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This is very bad news for the once-likely Rookie of the Year. (LA Times)

Clippers’ rookie power forward Blake Griffin, the No. 1 overall draft choice in June, has a stress fracture of the left patella, or kneecap, and could miss as much as six weeks of the season.

Tests revealed the fracture and a second opinion later in the day backed up the results and conclusion of the first doctor.

A Clippers spokesperson said it is a non-displaced fracture. But the team will take a conservative approach, meaning Griffin could be out of action until December. On top of the fracture, Griffin is also dealing with tendinitis of the left knee and has been said to have been playing with some measure of pain.

He suffered the stress fracture in the team’s final exhibition game against New Orleans on Friday, wincing after he came down on a dunk late in the third quarter.

The Clippers (wisely) shipped Zach Randolph to Memphis to clear minutes for Griffin, so they are suddenly a little thin on the front line. Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby will likely see an increase in playing time, and DeAndre Jordan and Craig Smith should see a big jump in minutes as well.

With Griffin sidelined, the race for Rookie of the Year is pretty wide open, though I have to give Tyreke Evans frontrunner status for the time being. He is going to get a ton of minutes and should be immediately effective at the NBA level. The Bucks’ Brandon Jennings is my darkhorse pick.

Every year, first-year players greatly impact the NBA regular season. They tend to thrive on bad teams for two reasons: 1) the best players generally go early in the draft to struggling franchises, and 2) those teams need their services so they play heavy minutes. In fact, over the last three years, the players that made the All-Rookie First Team played an average of 29.0 minutes per game. Playing time is opportunity, and with opportunity comes production.

Over that span, players that were named to the All-Rookie First Team played on teams with a combined 500-730 (.407) record. Only four players — Andrea Bargnani and Jorge Garbajosa on the 2006-07 Raptors, Luis Scola on the 2007-08 Rockets and Michael Beasley on the 2008-09 Heat — played on teams with a winning record. The other 11 players were on teams that averaged 25 wins.

Looking ahead to the 2009-10 NBA season, there are a number of rookies that will get big minutes on bad teams. I’m going to rank them in order of what I perceive to be their talent plus their opportunity, because a rookie needs both to succeed in his first year. Fantasy hoopsters should take note: Rookies can be great picks on draft day, if you know which ones to pick.

1. Blake Griffin, Clippers
In the preseason, Griffin is averaging 14.7 points and 8.5 rebounds in 28.5 minutes per game. The Clippers found a taker for Zach Randolph to clear the way for Griffin to start at power forward, and he should be a fixture there for the next few years. I expect he’ll get 33-35 minutes per game during the regular season, so 16-17 points and 9+ rebounds are a reasonable expectation. From a fantasy perspective, he’s currently PF19 off the board, but will likely finish as the PF11 or better if he stays healthy. 10/27 Update: He didn’t stay healthy. Griffin will miss six weeks with a stress fracture in his knee.

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That seems to be the indication, according to ESPN…

There were strong indications Thursday night that the New York Knicks were assembling the final details of an offer sheet they believe will ultimately land Milwaukee Bucks restricted free agent Ramon Sessions.

Terms of the proposed deal were not immediately available, but NBA front-office sources told ESPN.com that the Bucks were indeed bracing for the offer sheet and also more likely to pool the free-agent cash they’re prepared to spend this summer to try to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers to the signature of athletic power forward Hakim Warrick rather than matching what’s coming to Sessions from the Knicks.

Frank Madden at BrewHoop had this to say about the potential “swap”…

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Kevin Arnovitz of TrueHoop runs down the eight biggest stories of summer league. He discusses Blake Griffin and Anthony Randolph’s star potential, how the economic crisis is affecting European basketball as well as the NBA, how free agency (specifically the Lamar Odom, Carlos Boozer and Allen Iverson situations) had executives gossiping like housewives, the death of the back-to-the-basket game and how dysfunctional organizational structure breeds dysfunctional franchises.

He also describes out the deep 2009 point guard class fared this summer.

The Point Guard Class
Several point guards who came to Las Vegas made strong impressions. Jonny Flynn, despite all the turmoil surrounding Ricky Rubio, stood out. Though many in Vegas questioned the wisdom of playing Tyreke Evans at point guard long-term, few doubted that his strength, size, and capacity to get to the rim would make him a scoring machine. Observers had reserved praise for Brandon Jennings and Stephen Curry, the former for his unrefined shot, the latter for looking more like a gunner than a floor general. Some of the mid-first-rounders earned a lot of praise. Dallas’ Roddy Beaubois led Vegas point guards in oohs and aahs, zipping through the lane in traffic and filling it up from beyond the arc. Of all the point guards in Las Vegas last week, Darren Collison was among the most polished before going down with an ankle injury. After starting Summer League 1-for-15 from the field, Ty Lawson bounced back to turn in three dominant performances, averaging 23.7 points over that span. Lawson is the kind of point guard who needs to be surrounded by scorers to excel. He’ll have that in Denver.

It seems like Brandon Jennings is a divisive personality right now. I’ve read some scouting reports that said he played outstanding at summer league while other observers barely mention his name. He averaged 14.6 points, 8.2 assists, 3.6 steals and 4.2 turnovers. He only shot 38% from the field, but even though he has an “unrefined shot,” he made 9 of 21 (43%) three-point attempts. He’s lightning quick, so if he can get a little more consistent with his jumper and develop a Tony Parker floater in the lane, he’s going to be tough to stop.

How quickly he has to develop depends on whether or not the Bucks are able to keep Ramon Sessions. If Sessions signs elsewhere, Luke Ridnour may keep the starting job while Jennings learns in a reserve role. If Sessions stays, it would give the Bucks great depth at point guard and trade assets for the future. I think the Bucks will match an offer up to the mid-level for Sessions, but the way they’ve been dumping salary this summer, he should be a prime target for teams that have a need at point guard.

TrueHoop tracked down Brandon Jennings’ former teammate, Ibrahim Jaaber, to provide a scouting report on Jennings and Ricky Rubio.

Ibrahim Jaaber is uniquely situated to comment on both. It is much discussed that Jennings did not play much for his Italian team, Lottomatica Roma. That’s in part because Jennings played behind Jaaber, a former two-time Ivy League player of the year who has played in Europe since graduating in 2007.

Jaaber agreed to provide a scouting report on his former teammate, Jennings, as well as Rubio, whom Jaaber faced on the court last December. I don’t know if it’s fair to expect Jaaber to be unbiased — Jennings is a former teammate, and he has no such relationship with Rubio — but he assures he is speaking from the heart when he writes:

I look at both as players who will need to be nurtured and given a lot of attention in order to thrive in the NBA. After one or two seasons in the League, given the same coaching, opportunities and development, in my opinion, I think Brandon Jennings will be the overall better player. Which is not to say that Ricky won’t be successful. I just think Brandon has greater potential — and as they are both in my eyes players who will have to make great developments, I would invest my pick in the better athlete, Brandon Jennings.

The piece is longer, and Jaaber makes a case for both players, but he’d take Jennings over Rubio.

Jennings was a top 5 pick all season, but has seen his stock drop recently as concerns over his lack of playing time in Italy crossed with the emergence of several other point guard prospects, namely Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, Stephen Curry and Jonny Flynn. Everything I’m reading points to the fact that Jennings is a great athlete and has outstanding quickness, but doesn’t have the same feel for the game as some of the other prospects do. His jumper seems to be falling and he has had several good workouts in recent days. He could go as early as #7 (to the Warriors) or possibly as late as #14 (to the Suns), and given the fluidity of this draft, even that’s not a solid range.

The draft is just a few days away, so it’s a good time to take one final stab at mocking the first round of this draft. I’ll continue to update the consensus draft this week, but this will be my last attempt at predicting what will happen this Thursday.

First, let’s take a look at the most recent consensus. Chad Ford released the most recent version of his mock draft today, NBADraft.net also updated today, while DraftExpress updated their mock yesterday.

Now I’ll go, pick by pick, through the first round, taking the consensus into account while also throwing in my $0.02 here and there.

#1 CLIPPERS
The Clips have shown no signs of trading away their opportunity to draft Blake Griffin. There is much fluidity with the next few picks, but the Oklahoma product is pretty much guaranteed to be the first pick. The Clippers will then (reportedly) try to move Zach Randolph or Chris Kaman, though it might be wise to move forward with Kaman and Griffin in the front court, Baron Davis at the point, and Eric Gordon and Al Thornton on the wing. Randolph is going to be tough to move. (I still can’t believe that Mike Dunleavy traded for him last season.)
Pick: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma

#2 GRIZZLIES
The consensus says that Hasheem Thabeet will be the pick and I don’t disagree, even though he just pulled out of a workout with Memphis due to a shoulder injury. DraftExpress thinks that Memphis will go with James Harden and move O.J. Mayo to the point, which they say is his natural position. I don’t know that they’ve given up on Mike Conley yet, so I think they will go big with this pick. Their biggest need is at power forward, so trading down and drafting Jordan Hill is a possibility. But if they stand pat, Thabeet could very well be the pick, even though he doesn’t seem to want to play in Memphis.
Pick: Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn

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Brandon Jennings has changed his mind about working out for a few teams recently, and it may be due to concerns that he’s going to slip in next week’s draft.

In New Jersey, after avoiding the Nets for weeks, Brandon Jennings is expected to join a group for a workout Saturday. The Star-Ledger reports the reason for the about-face is, as one scout said, that Jennings is “sliding like a five-year-old in the park.” More evidence of a fall for Jennings comes from Phoenix, where The Arizona Republic reports Jennings will work out for the Suns, who hold the 14th pick.

I called Jennings “the wild card” a few weeks ago, and it seems like he has one of the biggest ranges in the draft. He could go as early as #3 or #4, or he could slip to the mid-teens (or further). The point guard depth in this draft is excellent, but the teams at the bottom of the lottery aren’t necessarily in the market. Toronto (#9) has Jose Calderon, New Jersey (#11) has Devin Harris, Charlotte (#12) has Ray Felton and D.J. Augustin. Indiana (#13) and Phoenix (#14) could go with a point guard, but Detroit (#15) and Chicago (#16) likely will look to fill other needs.

With six or seven guards vying for four or five picks in the top 10, someone is going to slip to Indiana or Phoenix in the middle of the round. I wouldn’t be surprised if Philadelphia has a shot at a good guard at #17.

Brandon Jennings isn’t shy. When being interviewed by the Sacramento Bee after a workout with the Kings, Jennings had some sharp words for Ricky Rubio. [Transcript from The Sporting Blog.]

Jennings: Well, put it like this: If he was in a workout with me, Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson, Stephen Curry, he wouldn’t even probably be at the top.

Reporter: You think he’s all hype?

Jennings: Yeah.

Reporter: Because?

Jennings: Because he played in the Olympics, he been playing pro ball since he been 14, so you know, there it is right there. And you know, his stats? 26 minutes, and he be having like 16 points, 7 assists [inaudible -- sounds like he says 900] steals? Come on. Twenty-six minutes, and you have all that? So I really don’t know. I really don’t know. I can’t wait to play him, though. I’m just letting y’all know that now. I can’t wait.

Reporter: You think you should go before Ricky Ruubio in the draft?

Jennings: Yeah, I think I’m a better player than he is. I can shoot the ball better than he can. The only time I’ve seen him do something is when he has a home run pass or something. So I think the dude is all hype. I can’t even front. I’m going to be real with you guys.

Two weeks out, Rubio is still considered the top point guard in the draft, but his stock isn’t quite as high as it once was. While they love the “feel” that he has for the game, some personnel people are concerned about his overall athleticism and his suspect jumper.

Meanwhile, Jennings stock has slipped considerably since midseason largely because he got inconsistent playing time while in Italy.

Rubio is definitely more pass-first than he is shoot-first, and the opposite is true for Jennings, at least reputation-wise. Of the best point guards in the league, most are pass-first, so it’s no surprise that Rubio is favored right now.

Of all the top prospects in this year’s draft, perhaps the least is known about Brandon Jennings, who skipped an opportunity to play a year at Arizona to join a team in Italy. He had an up-and-down season, his minutes were inconsistent, but by most accounts he did improve. Chad Ford wrote a nice piece for ESPN Insider — it’s long, but this struck me as particularly interesting…

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