As the #1 overall pick in the 2005 draft, Andrew Bogut has had his share of ups and downs in his career. Lofty draft status means heightened expectations, and when the seven-foot Australian missed most of last season with a back injury, a friend of mine declared that he was a bust.
While my buddy was no doubt just trying to tweak me — I’m a longtime Bucks fan — he did have something of a point. Deron Williams and Chris Paul went #3 and #4 in the same draft, and they were both already playing at an All-Star level. To that point, Bogut’s best season was his third, where he averaged 14-10 with 1.7 blocks in 35 minutes of playing time. He certainly wasn’t a bust, though he hadn’t lived up to his lofty expectations, either.
But Bogut has undergone something of a transformation over the last 12 months. His fine play this season — 16-11 on 53% shooting, 2.3 blocks (2nd in the league) — can be attributed to a few factors. First, Michael Redd is now out for the season after trying to come back from knee surgery, so head coach Scott Skiles has asked Bogut to carry a bigger load offensively. He has developed a terrific left hand hook, which has made him one of the league’s few “go-to” post players.
In his Rookie Watch: Midseason Awards (Insider subscription required), Thorpe says that Thornton is the next best rookie scorer after Tyreke Evans.
There are a few obvious choices here, but I think Thornton is the most deserving simply because of what he’s done in difficult circumstances. Despite being pulled into and out of the rotation, playing for two coaches already and often getting paired with another rookie in the backcourt, he has been able to put up points and help drive the Hornets back into playoff contention.
Ultimately, I think Thornton will be an excellent scorer off the bench for a contending team. He has supreme confidence in his ability to get a bucket from anywhere.
Difficult circumstances? Thornton has played with Chris Paul and Darren Collison at point guard, maybe the best 1-2 punch at the position in the entire league in terms of setting up teammates for shots. Meanwhile, Brandon Jennings has been asked to run the Bucks offense, deal with the absence, arrival and disappearance of Michael Redd, and has helped Andrew Bogut develop into an All-Star caliber player, all while leading the Bucks in scoring.
Thornton’s has a higher points per shot (PPS), averaging 1.15 to Jennings’ 1.05, but Jennings is averaging almost seven more points per game while being the focus of the opponent’s defensive game plan. Jennings is just as good from long range and gets to the line twice as often. Sure, he’s struggled of late as teams have started to figure out how to stop him, but that’s just it — teams are trying to stop him. Is anyone game planning for Marcus Thornton?
That move is almost impossible to guard without double-teaming. He’s so good at getting to the basket, so when he stops and spins, it’s tough for the defender to change direction quickly enough to properly contest the jumper.
He’s currently the frontrunner for the ROY, and it’s doubtful that Blake Griffin is going to get enough games in to catch him. Brandon Jennings and teammate Omri Casspi are the only other serious candidates at this point. Since Michael Redd is starting to play well in Milwaukee and Casspi is Evans’s teammate, it is going to be tough for either guy to usurp him. It would probably take an injury or a month-long slump to turn the tide of the ROY race.
1. Tyreke Evans, Kings: After missing three games with a bum ankle, he returned to the Kings’ lineup in Saturday’s loss to the Mavs. He didn’t shoot well but provided his usual goodies in the rebound and assist columns. (Last week: 1)
2. Brandon Jennings, Bucks: Critics point out that his game slumped a little in December. Considering how well he played in November, averaging 22.1 ppg, he can afford to slip up some more and still not finish any lower than second in the Rookie of the Year voting. (Last week: 2)
3. Omri Casspi, Kings: Kudos to the Kings’ front office for drafting not one but two studs. He is averaging more than 18 points and eight boards while shooting almost 50 percent from 3-point range in his last five games. (Last week: 5)
No arguments here. I think Evans’s strong December pushed him ahead of Jennings, who has tailed off a bit. Jennings averaged 22-4-6 in November and 17-3-6 in December.
And Casspi is also impressive. When was the last time the same team had two strong ROY candidates?
When it comes to the rookie class, Brandon Jennings has dominated the headlines, and for good reason. His 55-point outburst against Golden State was quite the coming out party and his 22.1 ppg average in November was far and away tops amongst rookies, right?
Not so fast.
Rather quietly, Tyreke Evans has put together a nice month and a half. Here’s a comparison:
Aside from Jennings’ superior accuracy from long range, those numbers are pretty similar. Evans has been playing more off guard since Kevin Martin has been sidelined, but the Kings are still starting him at the point. In December, he’s averaging 24-5-6 and is shooting 51% from the field. After his hot start, Jennings has cooled off, averaging 19-3-6 this month, while shooting just 39% from the field. He has only hit 9 of 31 threes in December (29%).
The Kings are a surprising 9-12, while the Bucks are a less surprising 10-11. Evans is much stronger and is probably better suited to the rigors of an NBA season (though it should be noted that he has missed a game this season, while Jennings has not). Meanwhile, Jennings attacks the defense with quickness using more of a finesse game (pull up jumpers, crafty layups, teardrops) to score. It’s going to be interesting to see these two guards battle for status as the ROY frontrunner, and what happens when Blake Griffin returns. Also, can Evans keep up this pace with Kevin Martin back in the lineup?
I have caught chunks of five Jennings games so far, including a decent piece of his 55-point game, but haven’t seen him in person yet. First time I watched him on TV? Blown away. Sometimes you can just tell with these things. I thought Chris Paul played well beyond his years as a rookie; Jennings is a lefty Chris Paul, only if Paul could shoot 20-footers and 3s with a hand in his face. More importantly, his teammates love him. And he has a wonderful sense of The Moment already. I can’t say enough about him. He’s a superstar in training. He’s the first Buck in 25 years who could actually sell tickets and jerseys there. Amazing. He will save basketball in Milwaukee, as long as this early start doesn’t go to his head. And it might.
Regardless, he’s the least likely franchise rookie I can remember. I always make fun of bumbling GMs in this space, so let’s pay tribute for once to someone who absolutely crushed a decision: Bucks GM John Hammond. It’s one of the best draft picks ever. A franchise-alterer. I don’t get floored by much with sports anymore, but this Brandon Jennings thing floored me. Never saw it coming. It more than made up for Rubio fleeing back to Spain for three more years.
While I agree that Hammond crushed this decision (and that Jennings could save basketball in Milwaukee), I don’t think that he’s a lefty Chris Paul. Paul averaged 7.8 assists and 12.1 shots in his rookie season while Jennings is averaging 5.7 assists and 18.7 shots per game. Jennings is more of a lefty Iverson (7.5 assists and 19.8 shots per game). He’s a shoot-first point guard who has the ability to set up others if he wants. Iverson didn’t have much to work with in Philly, and the Bucks’ roster is pretty sparse outside of Andrew Bogut (a good center with a few star qualities), Ersan Ilyasova (a good sixth man with upside), Charlie Bell, Luke Ridnour and Luc Mbah a Moute (rotation players). So it’s no surprise that Jennings is going to shoot a lot. He has to.
After a blistering hot start, he has come down to earth in the last few games. He is 25 of 84 (30%) in his last five games, and the Bucks went 1-4 over that span. The good news is that he is 10 of 19 (53%) from 3PT over that same span. Teams are going to game plan for him now and it’s his job to adjust.
Here’s an inside look at the Bucks’ rookie, with a focus on his 55-point game against the Golden State Warriors.
While the last few years haven’t been very kind, Milwaukee is a proud franchise with a long tradition of winning. Led by Lew Alcindor, they won a championship in 1971, and in the ’80s, the team advanced at least as far as the Conference Semifinals in nine of 10 seasons. The team has a nice 1-2 punch now with Jennings and Andrew Bogut, and if Michael Redd can get healthy, this team is a good bet to make the playoffs in the East.
Not since the 2001 Playoffs have I been this excited about the Milwaukee Bucks. That was the year George Karl led the so-called “Big Three” — Ray Allen, Glenn Robinson and Sam Cassell — to the Eastern Conference Finals, where they faced Allen Iverson and the Philadelphia 76ers. They were just a missed Robinson jumper away from making the NBA Finals.
For a small market team to develop into a serious contender, they have to get lucky. Big name free agents generally don’t want to play in Milwaukee or any other small market, so they have to acquire their superstar through the draft. The Spurs landed Tim Duncan. The Magic landed Dwight Howard. The Cavs landed LeBron James.
That Bucks team won the first pick in the 1994 lottery (Robinson), swung a draft day trade in 1996 (Allen) and traded for an underrated point guard (Cassell) during the 1998-99 season. Robinson wasn’t a franchise player like Duncan, Howard or LeBron, but with Allen and Cassell (along with an up-and-coming reserve named Michael Redd), the Bucks were able to make a run in a watered down Eastern Conference.
This summer, the Bucks got lucky again. While it would have been nice to win the lottery and the right to draft Blake Griffin, the next best thing happened — they struck gold with the #10 pick. As the draft grew closer, it appeared that the Bucks had zeroed in on Jennings, but as Chris Sheridan writes, they didn’t think he’d be there.
