Miller might actually find it easier to operate in Portland’s offense with Oden off the floor and less of an emphasis on throwing the ball inside. Harsh as that sounds, given Oden’s unquestioned likability and hideous luck, Miller and Roy appeared to be the main sufferers from the lack of offensive flow that has plagued Portland this season as Oden’s role expanded. If the Blazers open things up a bit more with Oden sidelined, as Roy envisions, that could really help Miller.

Yet the reality remains that Miller and Roy are an iffy tag team because both need to see so much of the ball to be effective, which explains why Miller has started only nine games. There’s this, too: While NBA front-office sources say there is considerable outside interest in young (and mostly forgotten) Portland guard Jerryd Bayless, Miller’s more substantial salary — $6.7 million to Bayless’ $2.1 million — would probably bring a bigger talent payoff in a trade.

“They need a Mo Williams-type to play with Brandon Roy,” said one rival team executive in the West. “They need a shooter to play off him.”

Stein suggests that both Miller and Sessions were signed so that the Blazers and T-Wolves would have tradeable assets that they can “flip” at some point during the season. Sessions supposedly had an opportunity to play for the Knicks on a one-year deal and probably should have done just that. Chris Duhon is struggling, so it’s likely that Sessions would be the starter by now, and with his ability, he could post some nice numbers in Mike D’Antoni’s system. The Knicks aren’t going to trade for Sessions now because his contract would eat into their projected cap space next summer.

Sorry, I couldn’t resist the fish reference…

The Magic signed Brandon Bass to a four-year deal.

The Orlando Magic are trying to keep up in the arms race in the competitive Eastern Conference, agreeing to terms on Friday with free agent forward Brandon Bass on a four-year deal believed to be worth $18 million.

The Mavericks tried to keep him, but Dallas’ commitment to Magic free agent center Marcin Gortat to an offer sheet made money scarce. New Orleans, Bass’s first team, and Cleveland also were working to sign him.

With Hedo Turkoglu gone to Toronto, there may be an opportunity for a starting job at power forward in Orlando for Bass, with the Magic moving Rashard Lewis back to his normal small forward position. But even if he doesn’t start, Bass will provide toughness and size for an Orlando team that now has to contend with Shaquille O’Neal and re-signed forward Anderson Varejao in Cleveland and the return of Kevin Garnett and newly signed Rasheed Wallace in Boston.

Sometimes GMs target productive bench players that play behind All-Stars and they turn out to be good starters. The Mavs signed Dwight Howard’s backup, Marcin Gortat, and the Magic turned around and signed Dirk Nowitzki’s backup to shore up their power forward position. Though I wasn’t a big fan of the Magic’s decision to acquire Vince Carter at the expense of Hedo Turkoglu and Courtney Lee, I do like this signing. This will allow the Magic to go big with Lewis at small forward and Bass at power forward, or utilize Bass off the bench.

I think Bass is starter quality and it will be interesting to see how the 24-year-old develops after posting two seasons with a PER of 16.00 or more.

Once the draft is over, the next step of the NBA offseason is the free agency period. Negotiations start July 1, but players have to wait until July 8 to actually sign on the dotted line. Due to the economy, this promises to be an interesting summer, as more franchises seem to be trying to cut payroll than add talent. There are eight teams with significant cap space this summer, and there’s no guarantee that they’ll be willing to use it. Teams that are over the cap can add good players in two ways: 1) they can sign a player to the Mid-Level Exception (MLE), which will be around $5.8 million per season (and can be split up between two or more players), or 2) they can work out a sign-and-trade with the player’s old team.

Below is a list of the top unrestricted free agents this summer. These are players who can sign with whomever they like. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign.

1. Carlos Boozer, PF (27 years-old)
PER: 17.28
At press time, Boozer hasn’t officially opted out, but he is expected to. He can play another year for $12.3 million, but he thinks he’s due for a raise, and I don’t think he’s going to get the kind of raise he’s expecting. Boozer is one of the top 20 players in the league when healthy, but it’s that whole “when healthy” part that’s the problem. Over the past five seasons, he has missed a third of his team’s games. At 27, he’s in his prime, and assuming he has the right supporting cast, I think he can be one of a twosome or threesome on a championship-caliber team. Boozer may not get a raise this summer, but he could get long-term security. The Pistons, Raptors, Kings and Thunder all have the space to make a run at him, but Sacramento and OKC might consider themselves too far away from contending to add a big piece like Boozer. The Pistons seem like the best fit, but they are rumored to have more interest in Ben Gordon. There’s always the possibility that another team works out a sign-and-trade with Utah, but I don’t think anyone is going to give him a max deal, not in this economy.
Value: $12.0 – $13.0 million per year

2. Hedo Turkoglu, SF (30)
PER: 14.82
With the Magic’s trade for Vince Carter, and Turkoglu’s rumored demands for a five-year deal worth $50 million, the general consensus is that Hedo won’t be back in Orlando. I think the Magic would consider a three-year deal at around $8 million per season, but that would put the franchise in luxury tax territory for the foreseeable future. (It would also make them a contender, so it may be worth it.) The Blazers, Raptors and Kings are reportedly interested, but Toronto seems intent on re-signing Shawn Marion, so they may elect to go another direction. Still, at 30, he’s not going to be as effective in the last two years of the contract as he is in the first three, so a five-year deal may be asking too much.
Value: $8.0 – $9.0 million per year

3. Ben Gordon, SG (26)
PER: 17.02
The Bulls reportedly want to re-sign Gordon, but the Pistons seem interested and have a rumored promise of $11 million per season. That seems steep for Gordon, who is undersized for an off guard, doesn’t always have the best shot selection and has a reputation for being a less than stellar defender. He is an outstanding shooter and scorer, and can carry a team at times with his offensive ability. Gordon may sign for over $10 million per season, but I have a gut feeling that he’s going to regret the decision to turn down two different extensions from the Bulls over the last two years.
Value: $8.0 – $9.0 million per year

4. Ron Artest, F (29)
PER: 15.64
Artest played for $7.4 million last season, and I think his best bet for a contract that’s more than the MLE is with the Rockets. Don’t expect them to break the bank, as Daryl Morey knows that the Rockets probably won’t have much competition for Artest’s services. He brings a lot to the table, both good and bad. He’s not a great fit with any of the teams with significant cap space, so the Rockets might be able to lock him up to a three-year deal for a bit more than the MLE.
Value: $7.0 – $8.0 million per year

5. Trevor Ariza, SF (24)
PER: 15.51
Ariza really came on this season and was a big factor in the Lakers’ championship run. He averaged 11.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and shot an astounding 48% in the postseason. That, plus his stellar defense, is exactly what the Lakers need out of the small forward position, and all indications are that they’ll be able to re-sign him. I’d expect a MLE-type deal, because he’s unlikely to leave L.A. even if another team offers him a little more money. The Blazers and Kings could both make a run at him, but they would probably need to offer him $7 million or more per season to pry him away from L.A.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

6. Jason Kidd, PG (36)
PER: 16.95
Barring a sign-and-trade, Portland and Atlanta are the only teams in the market for Kidd’s services that could offer him more than a mid-level deal. The general consensus is that he’ll re-sign with the Mavs, though at 36, I doubt Dallas gives him more than a two-year deal. I think Mark Cuban will do what it takes to keep Kidd in town, or else he’d have to deal with the ramifications that the Kidd-for-Devin Harris deal was a disaster. (He’s still in denial.)
Value: $7.5 – $8.5 million per year

7. Lamar Odom, F (29)
PER: 16.60
Odom has said in the past that he can’t imagine not living near the beach, so I don’t think that the Lakers have to come very strong to retain his services for another two or three years. Most of the teams with cap space could use him, but I think he’ll stay put. When he plays to his potential, his value is well over $10 million per season, but given his age and tendency to disappear for long stretches, I think the Lakers will get a hometown discount. I don’t see another team offering him enough to leave L.A.
Value: $7.0 – $8.0 million per year

8. Shawn Marion, F (31)
PER: 16.02
The Raptors have said that they intend to re-sign the Matrix, and he played well for them when they went 9-4 down the stretch. His reputation of being a bit of a malcontent will work against him in this market, though he’s bound to sign for more than the mid-level. He still has two or three good seasons before his skills start to decline.
Value: $7.0 – $8.0 million per year

9. Mehmet Okur, FC (30)
PER: 17.59
Okur has the option to play another year (for $9 million), but at press time, the feeling was that he was almost certain to opt out. He had a great year, averaging 17.0 points, 7.7 rebounds and shooting almost 45% from long range, and there are a number of teams — the Thunder, Pistons, Raptors and Kings — that could use him. He isn’t a good help defender, but he’s physical on the block and is a pretty good defensive rebounder. I think he’ll stick with the Jazz, but he’ll test the waters first.
Value: $8.0 – $9.0 million per year

10. Andre Miller, PG (33)
PER: 18.71
Statistically speaking, Miller’s last two seasons were two of his best, and he proved that he’s not over the hill. He’d be a good fit with the Blazers, but so far there has been no confirmation of interest. The Hawks are another team that could use his leadership, and it looks like Mike Bibby may be on his way out of town. Besides those two teams, Miller’s best bet is to re-sign with the Sixers (who just drafted the raw Jrue Holiday) or take a mid-level deal with a contender in need of point guard help.
Value: $6.0 – $7.0 million per year

11. Rasheed Wallace, FC (34)
PER: 14.91
Wallace says he wants more than the mid-level, but I’m not sure that’s what the market is going to bear. He’ll likely sign with a contender, and other than the Blazers (and maybe the Hawks) all of the contenders are over the cap. That leaves two options: 1) a mid-level deal or 2) a sign-and-trade. At 34, it’s going to be interesting to see how long of a deal he gets, as his game looked to be on the decline last season.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

12. Allen Iverson, G (34)
PER: 15.89
AI is in a tough spot. He’s a former MVP that is at his best when his team is built around him — only his skills aren’t quite good enough to justify that. His move to Detroit was a disaster, so he hasn’t been able to prove that he’s willing to accept a lesser role to benefit his team. This makes him a very risky addition for a contender. I don’t see any of the teams with cap space rolling the dice, but will Iverson sign a mid-level deal? That might be his only option at this point.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

13. Mike Bibby, PG (31)
PER: 16.38
Bibby was better in his first full season with the Hawks, but Atlanta just traded for Jamal Crawford and drafted Jeff Teague, so Bibby’s stint in Atlanta is likely over. Portland could use his services, but there hasn’t been any indication out of the Pacific Northwest that that’s the case. He’s not much of a creator, so he’d be the best fit for a team that would ask him to knock down open shots (i.e. the Rockets, Heat, Lakers, Mavs). I think he’ll eventually sign for a playoff team at the MLE.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

14. Brandon Bass, PF (24)
PER: 16.49
Bass has performed well in limited minutes behind Dirk Nowitzki, but it might be time for a change of scenery. While his PER has been 16+ the last two seasons, he’s still pretty much flying under the radar. At just 24, he still has room to grow, and he’s already a solid offensive player. He’s probably a 14/7 guy as a starter, but he’s more likely going to join a contender at or near the mid-level and come off the bench.
Value: $4.5 – $5.5 million per year

15. Chris Andersen, FC (31)
PER: 18.16
“The Birdman” brought great energy off the Denver bench and even outplayed Nene at times. I criticized the Nuggets for giving Marcus Camby away, but clearly it was Andersen that made it possible. At 31, he’s no spring chicken, but he’s certainly in line for a raise. He’s a great shotblocker and rebounder, and is decent when he’s asked to catch the ball and finish. But he isn’t particularly good as a post defender and has limited outside touch. He strikes me as another near mid-level guy.
Value: $4.5 – $5.5 million per year

16. Anderson Varejao, FC (26)
PER: 14.62
Varejao is tough on the class and has the potential to be a hard-nosed defender, yet he spends a lot of time flopping to the floor looking for the call. His offensive game is non-existent (and isn’t improving), and as a liability on that end of the court, he’s not going to get the kind of contract he’s expecting. As Jeff Van Gundy has pointed out, it’s going to be tough for the Cavs to play Shaq and Varejao at the same time, which makes him sort of expendable in Cleveland. They may re-sign him so that Shaq can get a game off from time to time, but I don’t think they’re going to meet his asking price. I don’t know that any of the teams with cap space would be willing to pay more than the mid-level for 6’11″ defender/rebounder with no discernible offensive game. Someone will offer him a mid-level deal.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

Other notables: Grant Hill, Kyle Korver, Zaza Pachulia, Dahntay Jones, Antonio McDyess, Drew Gooden, Anthony Parker, Flip Murray, Stephon Marbury, Wally Szczerbiak, Joe Smith, Anthony Carter, Von Wafer, Marquis Daniels, Rodney Carney, Shelden Williams, Chris Wilcox, Desmond Mason, Matt Barnes

That wraps up the significant unrestricted free agent. Check back on Monday, when I’ll break down this summer’s group of restricted free agents.

Related content:

The Top Restricted Free Agents of 2009
Which NBA teams will have cap space this summer?
The Top 10 NBA Free Agents of 2010

The NBA free agency period starts July 1st, and as that date approaches I’ll preview this year’s free agent class in more detail. But for now, I’d like to take a look at which teams have the cap flexibility to be major players in free agency this summer. (Mind you, just because a team has cap space, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll use it. Just sayin’.)

Not familiar with the NBA salary cap? Here’s a quick primer…

1. The cap for the 2008-09 season was $58.7 million. The general consensus is that the cap will stay flat or decrease slightly. We’ll assume it sticks at $58.7 million.

2. If a team is over the cap, the only free agents they can sign are their own, unless they elect to sign a player to the mid-level exception (~$5.8 million per season), the bi-annual exception (~$2.0) or to a minimum contract. (The bi-annual exception may not be used in two consecutive years.)

3. If a team is under the cap, they can sign any free agent they want as long as they do not exceed the cap. They can also take on salary via trade up to the cap, so a team like the Grizzlies (with almost $20 million in cap space) could conceivably trade their first round pick to the Suns for Amare Stoudemire or to the Raptors for Chris Bosh.

Here’s a list of the bigger names in the free agent pool this summer:

Unrestricted: Carlos Boozer, Ben Gordon, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Hedo Turkoglu, Allen Iverson, Mehmet Okur, Rasheed Wallace, Mike Bibby, Anderson Varejao, Grant Hill, Kyle Korver, Trevor Ariza, Brandon Bass, Chris Andersen, Zaza Pachulia, Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden

Restricted: David Lee, Paul Millsap, Ray Felton, Josh Childress*, Marvin Williams, Glen Davis, Ramon Sessions, Charlie Villanueva, Nate Robinson, Leon Powe, Hakim Warrick, Linas Kleiza, Jarrett Jack and Shannon Brown

* It appears that if Childress does return to the NBA, the Hawks still hold his rights, so he would be a restricted free agent.

There are eight teams that project to have more than $5.8 million (the value of the mid-level exception) in cap space this summer:

Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Cap Space: $19.7 million
Memphis has been reluctant to spend for several years now and is probably one of the franchises that’s struggling the most in the current economy. I lived in Memphis for three years, and given its small size and overall lack of wealth, I always thought that it would struggle to support a professional sports team. With a core of Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about what they have at off guard, small forward and center. The big decision this summer is what to do with restricted free agent Hakim Warrick. When dealing with bad teams, numbers can be deceptive, because no matter what, somebody has to score and rebound, right? Warrick’s PER (16.91) is #24 amongst power forwards, so ideally he’d be coming off the bench for a playoff team. The Grizzlies projected cap space assumes they make the qualifying offer to Warrick ($3.0 million). Memphis is one of those teams that could really use the services of a Carlos Boozer, David Lee or Paul Millsap, but in this economy, are the Grizzlies willing to make that kind of a commitment? They could try to make a run at Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire next summer, but the odds are long that either guy would want to play for the Grizzlies.

Detroit Pistons
Projected Cap Space: $19.6 million
Unless they’re thinking about keeping Rasheed Wallace around, the Pistons don’t really have any big decisions this summer when it comes to personnel already on the roster. The Chauncey Billups-for-Allen Iverson swap was designed to free up cap space and in those terms, it worked beautifully. Sure, the Pistons gave up any chance of a deep run in the playoffs by trading Billups away, but the writing was on the wall – i.e. the Pistons weren’t going to the Finals – so Dumars chose to start the rebuilding process earlier rather than later. Neither Iverson nor ‘Sheed are likely to be back, but Wallace has a better chance of returning, however slight. The Pistons appear to be building around Tayshaun Prince and Rodney Stuckey (and Rip Hamilton?), but those are complementary players, not franchise-types. Joe Dumars built a winner without a true franchise player before, and he can do it again. The Pistons need size. Keep an eye on the Jazz. If Boozer opts out, he could land in Detroit, but if he doesn’t, the Pistons could go after Paul Millsap since the Jazz would have a tough time matching a substantial offer.

Atlanta Hawks
Projected Cap Space: $17.8 million
Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachulia and Flip Murray are unrestricted free agents and Marvin Williams is a restricted free agent, so the Hawks could have a very different roster heading into next season. Both the Hawks and Bibby are saying the right things, but can the two come to terms on a fair deal? There’s no way that Bibby is worth what he made last season ($15.0 million), but how much is he willing to come down to return to Atlanta? Looking at this list, would there be another team wiling to offer him more than the mid-level? Memphis? Detroit? Toronto? Minnesota? Nope. Oklahoma City? Sacramento? Probably not. Portland? Maybe. The point is that in this economy, by playing hardball the Hawks should be able to re-sign him for a two-year deal averaging around $7 million per season. I’m not sure that he’s even worth that at this point in his career (remember – he’s 31), but if the Hawks want him back, they need to be careful not to overpay. Likewise, is Marvin Williams worth the $7.4 million it’s going to cost to keep him around for another season? He’s just 22 and already has the 13th-best PER amongst small forwards. Then there’s Josh Childress, who can return from Greece as a restricted free agent. With all these decisions and all this potential cap space, the Hawks promise to be one of the most interesting franchises to watch this summer.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Cap Space: $17.1 million
With a young, improving core of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, as well as a likely top 5 draft pick, the Thunder seem primed for a good season. Westbrook is more of an off guard than a pure point, so they could use a lead guard, as well as some help on the front line. They could go after Boozer, Millsap or David Lee, and are one of the teams that could easily snatch Ramon Sessions away from my beloved Bucks. The question is whether they’ll go after inexpensive young guys that can grow with Durant and Westbrook (Lee, Millsap, Sessions) or go after an established star (Boozer, Kidd, Bibby, etc.) with the thinking that they’ll become instant contenders. With their cap space, the Thunder could afford to add two or three starter- or star-level players, or they could elect to bide their time and try to add a superstar next summer.

Sacramento Kings
Projected Cap Space: $13.7 million
The Kings have good cap flexibility, but have serious lack of talent. They have one star – Kevin Martin – who is locked up for the next four years at a pretty reasonable price. Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes have some upside, while Andres Nocioni and Francisco Garcia are decent role players. The Kings made the mistake in giving Beno Udrih a long-term deal, so now they have to pay him an average of almost $7 millon over the next four years. Ugh. All right, so how do they turn this thing around? First, they have to hit in the draft. Ideally, that means Blake Griffin, whom they can pencil in at power forward for the next five years. Then they would need to find a good young point guard (Sessions?) that can grow with the Kings’ young lineup. Throw in a value at small forward (Josh Childress, Marvin Williams, Trevor Ariza, etc.) and the Kings would be much better next season. Not “playoff” better, but they’d probably win 10-15 more games. Baby steps.

Toronto Raptors
Projected Cap Space: $11.6 million
What are the chances of Chris Bosh re-signing if the Raptors have another miserable year? By trading Jermaine O’Neal to Miami for Shawn Marion (and his expiring contract), the Raptors have some financial flexibility this summer. If Toronto were to sign a premier big man like Carlos Boozer, David Lee or Paul Millsap, they would improve their chances of winning this season (and keeping Bosh around) while also giving themselves some insurance if Bosh bolts. Toronto already has two of the most important pieces to winning in the NBA: (1) a good point guard in Jose Calderon and (2) a good big man in Bosh. But over the last couple of years they have struggled to find the right complementary pieces. O’Neal didn’t work out, but the Raptors were 10-6 over their last 16 games with Marion, so one option would be to bring the Matrix back at a discounted price. Another free agent to keep an eye on is Ben Gordon. With his ability to put the ball in the hoop, he would thrive in an up-tempo attack and could really take the pressure off of Bosh and Calderon. Besides, the Raptors need a shooting guard now that the 33-year-old Anthony Parker looks to be over the hill.

Portland Trail Blazers
Projected Cap Space: $9.8 million
The Blazers are unique on this list in that they are a playoff team that has some cap space, but they won’t have to use it to keep their core players in town. Portland could add a legitimate star-level player to a roster already loaded with talent. They are set on the wing with Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw, and are pretty strong up front with LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla, so the major need seems to be at the point where Steve Blake is more of a placeholder than the point guard of the future. Jerryd Bayless is also a possibility, but his playing time dried up as the Blazers got closer to the playoffs. There are a number of good point guards available – Jason Kidd, Andre Miller, Mike Bibby – or the Blazers could go younger and try to pry Ramon Sessions or Ray Felton away from the Bucks and Bobcats, respectively. Portland has some good mojo working, and the guys least likely to upset the apple cart are experienced, pass-first points like Kidd or Miller. The Blazers could offer them more than the mid-level, which gives Portland the inside track on either player (if they want it).

Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Cap Space: $7.8 million
The T-Wolves actually look like they’re turning things around. They have an up-and-coming big man (Al Jefferson) and they hit in the draft, finding an efficient, heady power forward (Kevin Love). If I’m running this team – and I’m more qualified than Bill Simmons, who is campaigning for the position – I’d move Randy Foye to off guard and tell him to shoot 200-250 three-pointers per day this summer. Then I’d use my cap space to steal Ramon Sessions away from the Bucks. Mike Miller could play small forward for another season, so I’d use my draft pick on the best player available, preferably a shooting guard who could join Sessions and Foye in a three-guard rotation. Josh Childress and/or Marvin Williams would be a great fit, and might be had for the mid-level (or use the cap space on Childress/Williams and sign Sessions to the mid-level). I’d end up with a core of Sessions, Foye, Childress/Williams, Love and Jefferson – all under the age of 26. Like a fine wine, I’d wait a couple of years for this group to age, and add a piece here or there to complement this core. We’d be in the playoffs by 2011, I’m telling you…

With the Mavericks’ 106-93 Game 5 win in San Antonio, it is the first time that Tim Duncan has lost a first round series. Tony Parker shot 55% from the field, and averaged 28.6 points, 6.8 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game. Battling sore knees, Duncan still shot 53% from the field, averaging 19.8 points and 8.0 rebounds. Normally, those kinds of numbers from the Spurs’ top two players would result in a series win. What happened?

1. No supporting cast.
Manu Ginobili was out. Duh. But the rest of the Spurs failed to step up in his absence. Parker and Duncan combined to shoot 100 of 185 (54%) in the series, which means everyone not named Tim or Tony combined to make just 75 of their 198 attempts (38%). Roger Mason shot 42% from long range during the season, but made just 37% in the series. The midseason addition of Drew Gooden was a bust; he averaged just 7.3 points and 3.8 rebounds, and shot 33% from the field. Without Ginobili, there wasn’t a third scorer to take the pressure off of Parker and Duncan.

2. Mediocre defense.
The Mavs averaged 96.4 points per game, shot better than 46% from the field and better than 38% from long range during the series. Now those numbers are by no means eye-popping, but they are very un-Spurs-like. San Antonio just couldn’t get the consistent stops it needed to make up for its overall lack of scoring. Josh Howard and Dirk Nowitzki were both stellar, while J.J. Barea and Brandon Bass played great off the bench when Dallas needed it.

The Spurs head into the summer with zero cap space, but with the fiscal state of the league, they’ll have a good opportunity to add a quality player at the mid-level exception, assuming they want to spend the money. My guess is that they will, given that Tim Duncan’s championship window continues to get smaller and smaller. The team is fine in the backcourt, with Parker, Ginobili, Mason and George Hill. They need help on the wing and in the frontcourt, so the priority will likely be a big man. Rasheed Wallace’s name has been floated, but Zaza Pachulia, Anderson Varejao, Brandon Bass, Chris Andersen and Antonio McDyess are cheaper options.

With the trade deadline in the rear view mirror and players tied to their current teams at least until the summer, it’s a good time to take a look ahead at the free agent class of 2009. Given the state of the economy and how so many teams are saving up for the class of 2010, some are suggesting that this summer’s free agency could be a “nuclear winter” of sorts, no pun intended. The salary cap and luxury tax thresholds are likely to decline for the first time in years and that has GMs and owners around the league scrambling to cut salary where they can.

There are three types of free agents: players with early termination options (ETO) or player options (PO), restricted free agents and unrestricted free agents.

Players with ETOs or POs

This group includes Kobe Bryant, Jermaine O’Neal, Al Harrington, Jamal Crawford and Mehmet Okur, but it’s highly unlikely that any of these guys will hit the open market given the kind of money they’ll be making by extending their respective contracts. Of this group, Hedo Turkoglu, Anderson Varejao and maybe Carlos Boozer are the only big names that are likely to hit free agency. Boozer has already stated that he’s going to opt out, but he may decide against it if he doesn’t come back strong from his injuries. Turkoglu — the reigning Most Improved Player — is having another nice season, but he’s not playing quite as well as last year. Still, he can command more than the $7.3 million he’s due to make next season. Varejao could stay with the Cavs and make $6.2 million next season, but he and his agent (Dan Fegan) have been looking for more. Varejao wants a long term deal but it seems he and the Cavs disagree on how much he’s actually worth.

For the most part, guys in this group are going to be conservative and play out their contracts.

Restricted Free Agents

RFAs hardly ever change uniforms, but in this economic climate there are teams that are unlikely to match substantial offers for their restricted free agents. The other issue is that once a team signs a RFA to an offer sheet, the player’s team has a full week to match the offer. Most teams know instantly whether or not they’re going to match, but they take the full week so that the other team can’t make any other offers because its money is tied up in the offer sheet. The NBA should reduce this period to three or four days so that teams are more willing to make offers to RFAs. Or better yet, it should eliminate restricted free agency completely to avoid Josh Childress-type cases in the future.

(Stepping down from my soapbox…)

Anyway, the list of restricted free agents includes Childress, David Lee, Paul Millsap, Nate Robinson, Charlie Villanueva, Ramon Sessions (ESPN says he’s restricted though HoopsHype and ShamSports show Sessions as an UFA), Marvin Williams, Raymond Felton, Leon Powe and Linas Kleiza.

The Knicks can’t afford to keep both Lee and Robinson and sign LeBron or some other max-type free agent next summer, so if someone comes along and offers either player a substantial contract, it is unlikely that the Knicks will be able to match. Millsap played great in Boozer’s absence, and they are very similar players so it is unlikely that Utah can afford to keep both. Millsap looks like a potential All-Star and would be a cheaper option, but only time will tell if the Jazz have the balls to let Boozer walk.

Childress will probably return to the U.S. after a year playing in Greece. I suspect he’ll be a mid-level type guy, which increases the number of potential suitors as teams that are over the cap can still sign a player at the mid-level. The Bucks are in financial trouble and they need to get rid of Michael Redd or Richard Jefferson if they hope to keep both Sessions and Villanueva. Both players are having career years under Scott Skiles, but it’s unclear if the Bucks will be able to keep them. I’d expect Sessions to be a mid-level guy (and should be a solid starter for that price), while Charlie V might command a bit more. There are still questions about his heart, but if he’s thriving under Skiles, could he really be lacking toughness and drive? The Bucks have been hit by injuries to Redd and Andrew Bogut but are still holding onto the #8 playoff spot in the East, so they’d be wise to keep this core together if they can.

The Bobcats’ decision to draft D.J. Augustin made Raymond Felton expendable, so he could probably be had for the right price. I’m guessing that he’s a mid-level guy as well, though he and his agent will probably want more. Leon Powe and Linas Kleiza are both productive bench players and if the offer sheet is big enough, the Celtics and Nuggets (respectively) may decide not to match.

Unrestricted Free Agents

This group includes Ben Gordon, Lamar Odom, Shawn Marion, Allen Iverson, Ron Artest, Mike Bibby, Andre Miller, Jason Kidd, Rasheed Wallace, Trevor Ariza and Brandon Bass. Most of these players are older and on the decline, but they can still play. Veteran players in this group might be shocked by the kind of pay cut that they’re going to have to take in today’s climate. The days of 30+ year-old stars (not superstars) signing max or near-max deals are over, at least for a while. I bet all of these guys sign for less than $10 million per season. (I know…that’s peanuts, right?)

Gordon, Ariza and Bass are younger and could still be on the rise if they find the right team. Gordon seems to think he’s a starter and should be paid as such, but he’s small and doesn’t have a reputation for being a very good defender. He can really score though. If some team wants to pay him starter’s money, he’d be a good match to play alongside a bigger point guard who could cover the opponent’s off guard (Utah, Denver, Detroit?) or he needs to go to a team that doesn’t emphasize the defensive end.

Ariza continues to play well for the Lakers, but since he’s a much cheaper option than Odom, he’s probably going to be staying put. Bass had a terrific season two years ago, and is really coming on after a slow start this season. He’s just 23 and has some upside. I’d expect some team will sign him to a deal averaging in the $3-$4 million range, which would make him one of the best bargains of the summer.

So where will these players end up? Your guess is as good as mine. There are only a handful of teams — Atlanta, Detroit, Memphis (of course), Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Portland, Sacramento and Toronto — with the cap space (~$7 million or more) to sign a good player for another team, so I think there may be quite a few starter-level players/borderline stars signing mid-level deals this season. Playoff contenders that are over the cap won’t be able to pass up a good player for $5 million per season and there should be a number of guys that fit the bill this summer.

When I saw the headline — “’09 free agents may be better than ’10 class” — I was ready to jump all over David Aldridge for saying that any free agent class could be better than the one that will likely feature LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire. But as I read the full article, he made some sense. I still don’t agree with him, but I see his point.

Here’s a look at the possible free agents in ’09:

Those with asterisks either have options for ’09 or can terminate existing contracts for ’09, and many are expected to do one or the other, for one reason or another:

Kobe Bryant*, Carlos Boozer, Shawn Marion, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Hedo Turkoglu*, Mehmet Okur*, Andre Miller, Mike Bibby, Jason Kidd, Allen Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, Kyle Korver*, Anderson Varejao*, Drew Gooden, Stephon Marbury, Grant Hill, Brandon Bass, Joe Smith, Wally Szczerbiak, Zaza Pachulia and Anthony Parker. Jermaine O’Neal could join the group if he walks away from $23 million next season. (Don’t hold your breath. There’s no asterisk by Boozer because he’s already said he’s opting out next summer.)

Aldridge has four major arguments:

1. 2010 is fool’s gold.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that unless seismic changes take place, James is either going to stay in Cleveland in 2010 or go to New York. Maybe Los Angeles. Wade will almost certainly choose between Miami, New York, L.A. and Chicago. Bosh will choose between the preceding cities and, perhaps, Detroit. And that’s it.

Without the Big Three on the market for most NBA cities, the ’10 class loses a good bit of its luster. That’s going to leave a lot of teams with max money to spend on mostly not-max players.

2. Given the recession, owners will not want to spend.

Only seven or eight teams are going to be over the luxury tax threshold this season. That number isn’t going up any time soon. Fewer teams contributing luxury taxes to their fellow competitors will further erode many teams’ bottom lines.

“People have spent (in recent years) not to be a tax payer,” says a CEO of a major market team. “Indiana really can’t afford to spend up to the tax based on their local economy. But they do, because everyone else is doing it … now, I think you’re going to see teams having to make a lot of tough decisions on spending.”

3. Since fewer teams have cap space this summer, ’09 will have more opportunity.

The point is, there will be far fewer ’09 suitors than ’10 teams. And while Bryant is equally not likely to leave L.A. for smaller-revenue teams this summer, those teams are nonetheless in a buyer’s market similar to that of Major League Baseball. There will be solid, veteran players available who may well have to settle for cents on the dollar instead of bigger paydays. A wise team will likely get a whole lot more bang for its reduced buck in ’09.

Says one extremely high-ranking team executive: “This is going to be a nuclear winter for free agents. I would not want to be one this summer. So, if the point is that this summer will be great because there will be bargains galore, you are on the money.”

4. ’10 is loaded with wings, while ’09 has better point guards and bigs.

The ’10 group is lousy with wings — big wings, small wings, fast wings, shooting wings. But so is the whole NBA. The worst teams in the league — Oklahoma City, Washington, Minnesota, Memphis — all have perfectly fine wing players. It’s the point guards and centers that most of them lack, and so does the 2010 class.

Point guards available in two years: Nash. He’s it. And he’ll be 35 on opening night, 2010.

Point guards available next year: Kidd (who, granted, will be 36 on opening night, 2009), Miller and Bibby.

Quality bigs under 35 in two years: Bosh, Nowitzki and Chandler.

Quality bigs under 35 next summer: Boozer, Okur, Varejao, Wallace. Not-great-but good ones include Dallas’ Bass, Chicago’s Gooden and Atlanta’s Pachulia.

I don’t disagree with any of his individual points, but I don’t believe that they combine to make the ’09 class better than the ’10 class. To say that one class is better than another is to say that the collection of talent in one is greater than the other. That’s simply not the case here. It doesn’t matter if only a few cities have a shot at LeBron, D-Wade, Bosh and Amare — those four players hold more value than the entire ’09 class. (All right, maybe they don’t, but you get my point.) Just because the Grizzlies won’t have a shot at LeBron, it doesn’t make the ’09 class better. It might make it better for the Grizzlies, or for any other team with cap space in ’09 and no shot at LeBron, but it doesn’t make ’09 a better class on the whole.

And just because there may more bargains in ’09 than ’10 doesn’t make the former better, it just means that there may be better value available.

Aldridge’s points are all valid, it’s just his conclusion that I don’t agree with. When comparing two free agent classes, the one with more talent is the one that’s better. The other class may have a few traits that will make it appealing to certain teams, but that only makes it better to those individual teams.