That cigar smoke you see floating over your house is coming from BCS headquarters, where they’re lighting them up at a furious pace for the second straight season.

Boise State lost to TCU 36-35 today, and just like in last year’s shocking loss to Nevada, the Broncos missed a very makeable field goal at the end of the game. This time, it was Dan Goodale who missed a 39-yard kick as time expired to give the Horned Frogs the win in stunning fashion.

Like last year, the Boise State defense gave up a late lead, and that’s probably where a lot of the blame lies. But watching Goodale miss that kick certainly had to give Boise fans flashbacks to Kyle Brotzman’s miscue against Nevada. One big difference with this is that unlike Brotzman, Goodale hasn’t built up a ton of goodwill around campus for having been a spectacular kicker throughout his career.

The loss puts an end to any hopes the Broncos had of possibly squeezing into the national title game, and probably douses all hopes of getting into a BCS game at all.

And how’s this for schadenfreude? The game was played in Boise only because the Mountain West was trying to stick it to TCU as it was set to leave for the Big East. That worked out well, didn’t it?

Depending on when you read this, Boise State is either beating on Colorado State or just beat on Colorado State. Either way, we’re that much closer to an inevitable conclusion: The Broncos aren’t going to lose this year and will play in a BCS bowl.

Here’s the schedule for Boise State, and I dare you to find a loss there. Here’s a hint: There isn’t one. TCU was supposed to be the big one, as these two teams have carried the non-automatic qualifier flag for the past few years, but the Horned Frogs are a shadow of their former selves.

Yes, anything can happen, but it won’t. Boise State is going to finish 12-0 and probably in the top three in the human polls. They won’t play for the national title because their schedule isn’t strong enough to put them ahead of any of the other unbeaten teams, or a one-loss SEC team, for that matter. And, frankly, I don’t think it should.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a huge Boise State supporter. I think what the Broncos have done in the last decade is remarkable and the deserve to be discussed along with the top programs in the country. Staying consistent in a good conference is hard. So is staying consistent in Idaho. But it would be really hard to put them ahead of an undefeated Oklahoma or Wisconsin team at the end of the season.

They deserve a shot at the top prize, but until people wise up and we get a playoff, they won’t get it. And, frankly, in the system we have, they aren’t doing enough to get one.

The Mountain West is having itself a rough year. After losing Utah (Pac-12) and BYU (Independent) a couple of months ago, ESPN.com is now reporting that TCU will also leave the MWC to join the Big East in 2012.

The conference change allows TCU to play in an automatic BCS-qualifying league beginning in the 2012-13 school year. TCU currently plays in the Mountain West Conference, which does not have an automatic bid to the BCS and is going through some changes of its own. BYU and Utah are leaving the conference just as Boise State enters.

TCU would become the Big East’s ninth football team. The conference has extended an invitation to Villanova to become its 10th football member.

This is great for TCU and the Big East, but Boise State has to be having a “WTF?” moment. The Broncos joined the Mountain West in part because they thought it would improve their strength of schedule in the eyes of BCS voters. But now that Utah, TCU and BYU are all heading out of town, they probably would have been better served staying in the WAC in terms of SOS competition.

Maybe Boise should join the Big East, too.

I figured it was only a matter of time before Auburn jumped Boise State in the human polls. I just thought it would come after a win a little bigger than at Ole Miss — a team that is now 3-5 and lost at home to Jacksonville State.

But the latest USA Today/ESPN coaches poll is out, and there are the Tigers, 23 points ahead of Boise at No. 2.

I get it, Auburn has better credentials to this point in the season than Boise State does. It plays a tougher schedule, and is deserving of the No. 2 spot in the polls. (Side note: Saw Oregon for the second time live last night, and my god, the Ducks are good. I mean, I was impressed with the way they blitzed UCLA, but they made USC look slow last night. That’s crazy.)

What I don’t get is the timing. If you had Boise State No. 2 in your poll last week, what did the two teams do this week that made you change your mind? The Broncos were a little sloppy, and obviously not fully on their game on Tuesday, and still blew Louisiana Tech. To me, that’s the measure of a really good team, one that can still win handily while not at its best. Auburn, meanwhile, looked pretty slick in a 20-point win of its own against Ole Miss. Impressive, for sure, but not so impressive that you would think, “Wow, this is the performance that pushes Auburn to No. 2!”

Of course, I don’t know how important this jump really is. Boise needed Auburn and/or Oregon to lose anyway, and now that just becomes more evident. The Tigers and Ducks will still be Nos. 1 and 2 in the BCS standings when they’re released tonight, and the Broncos will continue to have to root against other teams for their own self interest.

A couple other notes from the poll: Missouri falls to No. 14 and Michigan State to No. 15 after some tough losses Saturday. Florida State fell from No. 15 to No. 24 after its loss Thursday. Of course, in the spirit of this always sane poll, that’s one spot in front of NC State, the team it just lost to. Which has the same record.

The Southeastern Conference may have lost its stranglehold on the national championship today.

South Carolina shocked the world (OK, so it wasn’t exactly the biggest upset ever, but it was still pretty big) when it knocked off No. 1 Alabama 35-21 this afternoon. The win is huge for Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks, who were showing signs of being a legitimate SEC title contender this season. It’s also vindication for Stephen Garcia, the much-maligned South Carolina quarterback who could only watch from the bench two weeks ago as his team lost to Auburn.

But for the conference, it could be a big problem. In most years a one-loss SEC team makes the title game without hesitation, but this isn’t most years. This year is all about the Boise State argument, and don’t look now, but TCU is still undefeated, and Ohio State might not have anyone on its schedule that can beat it. And, oh yeah, that team in Eugene, Ore. is looking pretty good this year, too.

Basically, the chances of there being two undefeated teams at the end of the season are pretty high right now, and while Alabama (or heck, South Carolina) would have played one heck of a schedule if it runs the table the rest of the way, keeping out one of the undefeated teams would start quite an uproar.

I am personally of the belief that while the SEC is probably still the country’s toughest conference, you can’t keep an undefeated Boise State team out of the championship game. The Broncos have done enough over the past few years to show they’re not a fluke, and it would be high time they got their shot.

What do you think? Should a one-loss Alabama (or SEC) team get a title shot over Boise?

I’m assuming you’re excited today.

I know I am. As nice as Thursday was for college football lovers, there’s nothing quite like the first full Saturday of college football. I could barely sleep last night, as thoughts of TCU’s defense, Brian Kelly’s debut in South Bend and Erin Andrews — on the set of Gameday … pervs — danced through my head.

Before I get into the five things you should look out for today, a brief introduction: My name is Paul Costanzo and I’ll be guiding you through your college football Saturdays this season. I’m not a college football expert, by any means. I’m just a huge fan who happens to have a journalism degree. I’m also a good friend of Anthony’s, so if I suck at this, you can direct all your hate mail to him. You can read me daily in the Times Herald newspaper out of Port Huron, Mich.

But enough about me, let’s get to the games.

It’s the first weekend, so I’d advise you to take all that you can in. But here are five things to focus on:

1. Brian Kelly’s debut at Notre Dame: Whether you love or hate the Irish, this is one to watch. Kelly has had nothing but success in his previous stops, and Notre Dame fans are hopeful that he’s the next Lou/Ara/Devine/Rockne. Because if he isn’t, well, let’s just say that’s not good for Notre Dame. His fast-break offense, led this year by first-year starter Dayne Crist, should have an opportunity to show itself off today against Purdue. But with the Irish, the question is defense, and it will be tested by Miami transfer Robert Marve and the Boilermakers’ own wide-open style.

2. Can Rich-Rod avoid the super hot seat?: Some would argue that Rich Rodriguez is already squarely on the super hot seat, but I don’t think there would be any argument if Michigan loses at home today to Connecticut. Don’t get me wrong, UConn is a good team. A very good team, in fact. But Michigan fans don’t want to hear excuses about losing to basketball schools, especially after going 8-16 over the past two seasons. If Michigan wins today, the pitch forks will go away for at least another week. If it loses, however, (which is a definite possibility) Rodriguez might want to pack at least one bag, just to be prepared.

3. Can Jacquizz Rodgers and Oregon State solve TCU’s defense?: The Horned Frogs lost some significant pieces on defense — defensive end Jerry Hughes foremost among them — but I imagine that Gary Patterson is going to be sending another strong unit out onto the field this year. That unit will get a strong test today with Oregon State, led by the Rodgers brothers, Jacquizz and James. This game is also interesting for the fact that we have a Pac-10 team going on the road and trying to pull off an upset against a Mountain West team.

4. Can North Carolina field a full team?: If you’re headed to Atlanta today, make sure to bring your spikes, because the Tar Heels are running a special “First 50 in the door get a jersey … and a scholarship” promotion. North Carolina has been decimated by suspensions, and will be without most of its defense, including stud defensive tackle Marvin Austin, and its biggest playmakers on offense. That was enough for Vegas to move the betting line by a touchdown, and all the action is still moving toward LSU. If this were in North Carolina, I’d almost go with the “team rallies around adversity” angle. But deep in the heart of SEC country, I have a tough team seeing the Heels rallying for anything today.

5. Can Boise State capitalize on its best chance to make the title game?: You’ll have to wait for Monday to watch for this, but you should definitely be watching. Boise State travels to Fed Ex Field to take on Virginia Tech in the weekend’s showcase game. The Hokies have high hopes coming into the season, as they’re the favorite in the ACC and a dark horse in national title talks. But don’t be fooled, this one is all about the Broncos. With a preseason top-five ranking attached to them this year, this is the Broncos’ best shot at truly busting the BCS and playing for the national title. A win against Virginia Tech puts them on course to do just that. And with nearly the entire team returning from a year ago — including stud quarterback Kellen Moore — Boise State is a legitimate national title contender.

No surprise here: Defending champs Alabama has the No. 1 ranking in the preseason Coaches Poll.

From FOX Sports.com:

Boise State will begin the season ranked No. 5. The Broncos, like Alabama, finished last season 14-0. They beat TCU in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Crimson Tide got 55 of 59 possible first-place votes. The other four went to Ohio State, which is No. 2 in the newspaper’s ranking.

Florida is third, followed by Texas, which lost to Alabama in the BCS title game in January.

Virginia Tech is sixth, followed by TCU, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Iowa to round out the top 10.

Nos. 11 through 15 are Oregon, Wisconsin, Miami, Penn State and Pittsburgh. They are followed by LSU, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Arkansas and Florida State, which will be without Bobby Bowden as coach for the first time in 35 years.

With all that has happened in college football over the past couple of months, it’s hard to fathom that actual games will be starting in a few weeks. Football is almost upon us!

Couple things that I’m interested in seeing:

- How TCU bounces back from its dud in the Fiesta Bowl.

- How Texas QB Garrett Gilbert fairs in his first full season after getting thrown to the wolves in the BCS title game.

- What the Tim Tebow-less Gators will look like (it’s felt like an eternity since Tebow wasn’t the one taking snaps from under center).

- What Mark Ingram has in store for an encore performance.

- What Nebraska’s defense looks like without Ndamukong Suh, who was perhaps the most dominant defensive player in college football last year.

What has your attention heading into the new college season?