I woke up today with an extra spring in my step because I knew it was the first Saturday of the 2011 college football season. But what really got me going was knowing I would once again be providing quality fade material for bettors around the world.

It’s about people helping people, folks.

No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU, 8:00PM ET
The last time Jarrett Lee opened a season as a starting quarterback was in 2006…for Brenham High School. LSU was going to have uncertainty at the quarterback position regardless of whether or not Lee or Jordan Jefferson was named the starter. But where the problem comes in is that Jefferson was assumed to be the starter for months. Now, just weeks before the season, they switch to Lee because of Jefferson’s off-field issues. It’s usually unwise to go against the SEC in a non-conference game but I’m not that bright so I’ll assume the risk. I think LSU’s outstanding defense will tire late in the second half after trying to keep up with Darron Thomas and LaMichael James for most of the game. The Tigers’ D figures to be on the field an awful lot tonight.
THE PICK: OREGON -3

No. 7 Boise State vs. No. 22 Georgia
All the talk in this one has revolved around Aaron Murray but I expect Kellen Moore to once again play mistake free. He has all new weapons this year but the Broncos’ offense rarely misses a beat from season to season. Never go against Boise State in their opener or in their bowl game. These types of games might as well be their freaking Super Bowl…
THE PICK: BOISE STATE -3

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Everyone seems to be hyper-cautious these days, so Boise State is holding back three players from tomorrow night’s showdown with Georgia at the Georgia Dome.

The Broncos announced in a brief statement Friday that senior safety Cedric Febis, sophomore defensive tackle Ricky Tjong-a-Tjoe and sophomore wide receiver Geraldo Boldewijn had not accompanied the team to Atlanta.

“The three are being held out of the game due to a review of their NCAA eligibility,” the statement read. “The review is not academic or violation of team rules.”

The three players all have a few noteworthy things in common. The first is that all three are originally from Amsterdam, the Netherlands, where they each played for local football club teams before coming to the U.S. All three played for prep high schools in Boise before joining the Broncos.

The second is that all three are expected to be major contributors for the Broncos this season. A fifth-year senior, Febis was in line to earn a starting safety position following the graduation of Jeron Johnson. He is likely to be replaced by redshirt freshman Jeremy Ioane.

The spread has moved from Boise State by 3.5 to Boise by 3.

ESPN Insider also has a great article about how Aaron Murray is as good as Kellen Moore. One thing to keep in mind is that Murray will be behind a veteran offensive line and Moore will be playing behind three new starters. I remember Mel Kiper making the point that the experience of the offensive line was one of the best predictors of success for a college football team. This should be a great game but I think Georgia might pull this one out.

Almost a year ago we decided to try to quantify the stature of college football programs so that we could rank them against one another. (Click here for the 2010 Rankings.) Then our football guru, Anthony Stalter, wrote a little bit about each program and the direction that it’s headed.

Here’s how the total points are determined — 20 points for a national championship, 10 for a BCS title game loss, seven for a BCS bowl win, five for a BCS bowl loss, five for a BCS conference championship, three for a mid-major conference championship, two for a BCS conference runner-up and one for a major bowl appearance (i.e. a bowl that has a recent payout of more than $2 million, so for 2011 that would be Capital One, Outback, Chick-fil-A, Cotton, Gator, Insight, Holiday, Champs Sports and Alamo.) You’ll see the total points in parenthesis after the team’s name.

We put some thought into the point values for each accomplishment, paying special attention to how the point values are relative to one another. For example, we figured that one national championship would equate to four BCS conference championships, or three BCS bowl wins. We only looked at the last five years, as college football has increasingly become a fluid and fickle sport, and that’s about how far back a recruit will go when deciding amongst a list of schools.

Lastly, since a program is so dependent on the guy in charge, we added or subtracted points if the program saw an upgrade or downgrade at the head coach position in the last five years. A max of 10 points would be granted (or docked) based on the level of upgrade or downgrade. Again, we tried to quantify the hire relative to the program’s other accomplishments. For example, hiring Nick Saban is probably worth two BCS bowl appearances, or 10 points. (Sure, he might lead Alabama to more, but he also might bolt for another job in a year or two.)

So, without further ado, here are the rankings. Every year we’ll go through and update the numbers based on what the program did that year (while throwing out the oldest year of data), so don’t fret if your team isn’t quite where you want them right now. Everyone has a chance to move up.

1. Ohio State (58)

Previous Rank: #2 (+1)
Some college football fans will take issue with the Buckeyes being No. 1 because of their “soft schedule.” But this is a team that has dominated its conference five of the past six years and has finished no worse than second in each of the past six seasons. They’ve also appeared in two title games (though they lost both) and nine straight BCS bowl games, winning the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl in the past two years. They’ve got an interesting season coming up though. Five of their players including quarterback Terrelle Pryor, running back Dan Herron and receiver DeVier Posey will miss the first five games next year after being suspended. Can the Buckeyes stay unscathed until those players return?

2. Florida (51)

Previous Rank: #1 (-1)
If it weren’t for Urban Meyer leaving the program (and their lousy 2010 season), the Gators would probably still be ranked No. 1. They have three conference championships and two national championships in two years, but the lose of Meyer hurts big-time in these rankings. But don’t fret Florida fans, if Will Muschamp gets the program back on the right track then the Gators won’t be at No. 2 for long.

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College kickers are about as reliable as cell phone service in the mountains.

They’re just as likely to make a 55-yarder as they are to miss a PAT. And unfortunately for Boise State, kicker Kyle Brotzman fell into the latter category Friday night in Nevada.

Everyone knows the situation for Boise. Because of the conference the Broncos play in, they have to win out to have a shot to play in the BCS title game. And even then, they have to beat the one or two top ranked teams on their schedule, then hope those opponents go on to do great things the rest of the year, then hope hell freezes over, then hope McDonalds comes out with the McRib sandwich at the exact right time, then pray that their auto mechanics don’t try to screw them over when they go in for a simple oil change.

In other words: They have to be perfect in order to hope to play for a national title. Then they have to be lucky.

In 2010, they couldn’t be perfect. With the game tied 31-31 with 13 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter on Friday night, Kellen Moore heaved a beautifully timed deep pass to Titus Young, who somehow got behind Nevada’s defense and made a spectacular catch for a 53-yard gain. With one second left, the Broncos used their final time out and sent kicker Kyle Brotzman up for a cheap shot field goal to win. But he pushed the short kick right and Nevada had new life.

In overtime, Moore once again led the Broncos into field goal range and again, Brotzman missed – this time from 29 yards out. The Wolf Pack then drove into field goal range for Anthony Martinez and, like adding salt in the wounds of Boise, he converted a 34-yarder that couldn’t have been more down the middle.

Game.

With the loss, Boise can’t even claim to be WAC champions in 2010, although not that that matters. If they can’t play for a national championship, then who cares about the conference? Go ahead, Nevada – take the damn thing. The Broncos had their sights on a much bigger prize.

Of course, while Brotzman will play the goat, the one thing that cannot be overlooked is how Nevada was only the second team all year (Virginia Tech being the first) to challenge Boise in the second half. The Broncos had built a 24-7 lead at halftime, then their offense went completely stagnant until five minutes left in the fourth when Doug Martin took a screen pass 79 yards for a touchdown to give Boise a brief 31-24 lead. Other than that, they were completely shutdown by a motivated Wolf Pack defense.

Speaking of defense, Boise’s was completely worn down in the second half, which is something they didn’t experience all year. Usually by the fourth quarter their starters are standing on the sidelines watching their backups play because they’re up by three touchdowns. But on Friday night, they weren’t only in the thick of it, they were also being run over by the combination of Colin Kaepernick and Vai Taua. The senior duo put the game on their shoulders and led the Wolf Pack to greatness. It was almost surgical what they were doing to Boise’s defense in the second half.

That said, Brotzman has to make one of those kicks. Maybe Nevada goes on to score a touchdown in overtime and they win anyway, but if Brotzman hits that chip shot at the end of the fourth, Boise escapes with a close call instead of disaster. Maybe they don’t play for a national title, but at least they’re still in the discussion.

Not anymore.

So who saw that coming?

Nevada 34, Boise State 31. All talk of a BCS title game appearance, gone. Hell, all talk of a BCS game, gone.

I fell asleep at halftime of this game, as it was nearly midnight and I was whipped after a lot of traveling over the holiday weekend. You know how sometimes when you fall asleep with the TV on and you’re not 100% asleep so what’s happening on the TV is kind of finding it’s way into your dreams? Yeah, I had a lot of that going on in my head. So when I came to at about 3 a.m., I had a weird feeling. Then I saw a graphic on Sportscenter with one loss next to Boise. I literally thought I was still sleeping.

I wasn’t, obviously. You hate to pin losses on one player, but Kyle Brotzman is going to have a hard time getting to sleep for the next few weeks, at least. Especially if Auburn or Oregon fall next week. He missed two chip shot field goals, from the middle of the field. One would have won the game at the end of regulation after Kellen Moore hit Titus Young on one of those plays that a team of destiny makes. The second would have given his team a 34-31 lead in the first overtime.

A friend of mine tweeted last night (yes, I checked my Twitter at 3 a.m. to get confirmation on what I had seen), “I’m surprised ‘That poor kid,’ isn’t a trending topic right now.” And it was accurate. Nearly every tweet written on the game included the phrase, and after watching the highlights you can see why.

But let’s not forget the fact that Nevada’s defense shut down the Boise State offense in the second half until late in the fourth quarter. The Broncos have been stepping on team’s throats all season long, and with a 24-7 lead at halftime, I assumed that’s what they’d do again — hence the sleeping.

I had a feeling Boise might let down after seeing Auburn come back and ruin their chance to move to No. 2. But I thought that might come early if it did, not in the second half with a 24-7 lead. It’s absolutely mind-boggling.

It’s a huge win for Nevada, but an even bigger win for the power conferences, who have one less undefeated team to worry about.

And it’s a huge loss for the Broncos, who went from brink of the title game, to certainly the Rose Bowl to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl all in one day.

Cam Newton’s done a lot of smiling so far this season. He’s the Heisman Trophy front-runner on the undefeated No. 2 team in the country.

A lot of people, including Vegas, don’t believe he’ll be smiling after today’s Iron Bowl, however.

The Tigers come into today’s game (2:30 p.m. ET on CBS) as a 4-point underdog against their biggest rival, Alabama, despite coming into the game with the undefeated record, Newton and two wins against the teams that have given Alabama its two losses.

It’s the game that is supposed to open the door for Boise State, or perhaps TCU to break into the national title game. It’s the game that’s supposed to save the NCAA from being embarrassed down the road if Newton is found to be ineligible after the Tigers have won a national title.

But will it be? Read the rest of this entry »

I know it’s blasphemy in college football to even think it, but what if the conference that has ruled the sport for most of the last decade just isn’t that good this year?

Yes, there are still great athletes all over the field in these games. Yes, some of the best coaches in the country are leading these teams. But what exactly has the SEC done this year to prove that it’s worthy of being called the best conference in the country?

What are the conference’s big nonconference wins? LSU has two wins over other BCS conference teams, but those are against a scandal-ridden North Carolina team (a game the Tigers very nearly lost) and a mostly erratic West Virginia team. Alabama has a win over Penn State, but so what. Not only are the Nittany Lions down this year, but they were playing with a true freshman in his first road start.

The nation’s No. 2 team, Auburn, is even without a signature nonconference win. The Tigers struggled to put away a Clemson team that came into tonight 4-4 in the ACC.

I understand the difficulty of going through conference games, and that the physical play of the SEC is tough to go through week after week. But what, other than past performance, do we have to go on when judging the SEC this year?

If Auburn beats Alabama next week, it will go to the national title game, and that’s fine. I have no problem with that. But all the talk of a one-loss SEC team somehow finding its way into the title game seems based completely on what we’re used to, not what we’re seeing on the field.

If you want to bring past performance into it, how do you overlook Boise State, which hasn’t lost a game since the Poinsettia Bowl in 2008 against TCU? Or how about a TCU team that’s only loss over the last two years is that same Boise team in last year’s Fiesta Bowl?

I think everyone who’s voting should learn a lesson from the 2006 season, when many thought Michigan and Ohio State deserved a rematch in the title game because they had been so dominant all season. The problem was, the perceived tough games they played were all either in conference, or against teams with more tradition than punch (Notre Dame and Texas). Luckily, the voters voted against that and the Big Ten was exposed, oddly enough, by the SEC.

No real big surprises in today’s USA Today/ESPN coaches poll, as the top two remained the same — Oregon and Auburn — and TCU moved up to No. 3 after a dismantling of Utah.

Boise State, of course, was the victim of TCU’s rise, even after a dominating win over a pretty good Hawaii team. But that shouldn’t surprise you. Last week, Auburn jumped Boise State after a win over a bad Ole Miss team, so the fact that TCU jumped the Broncos after perhaps the most impressive performance of the season shouldn’t come as a shock. In fact, I really don’t have a problem with this jump. TCU has played a better schedule thus far than Boise State, and absolutely dominated it much in the same way Boise has dominated its schedule. This was an exclamation point win for the Horned Frogs, and if voters believed TCU was the better team, there was no better time than now to make that move.

The top two in the BCS standings should remain the same, but I’d expect the gap between Auburn and TCU at 2 and 3 to close. First off, the Horned Frogs moved up in the coaches poll, and I’ll guess they’ll do the same in the Harris Poll. Plus the computers will likely close the gap as Auburn played Chattanooga and TCU played what was the No. 5 team in the BCS standings.

The best news for TCU and Boise State, however, had to be Alabama’s loss. There’s a good chance that the Tide were the only one-loss team capable of jumping over them into the national title game. I don’t know all the tie-breaker rules off-hand, but I believe LSU needs Auburn to lose each of its next two games in order to get into the SEC championship game. So if Alabama beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl, that will open up a spot for either TCU or Boise State.

I doubt a win over a three-loss SEC East champion would be enough for voters to vault Auburn back into the game. And even though it’s happened before, I can’t imagine an 11-1 LSU team that didn’t even play in its conference title game would jump the unbeatens. It wouldn’t be unprecedented — see Nebraska in 2001 — but it would be borderline criminal. Then again, that pretty much fits right in line with the BCS.

Ugh.

After going 3-1 two weeks ago, I successfully predicted a downfall last Saturday by putting forth a brutal effort. Alabama (no front door cover, Tide?), South Carolina (couldn’t hang onto that lead, Cocks?) and LSU (only 20 points at home, Tigers?) were all losers, while my only winner was Temple over Penn State (even though the Owls tried to blow that one for me late).

Here goes a better effort this week…

No. 17 Ohio State –16.5 at Illinois, 12:00PMET
Lay the points. The Buckeyes are 4-0 against the spread this year and have done it in rather easy fashion. I realize this is their first road test of the year, not to mention their first Big Ten game, but Ohio State is the far superior team and should roll. The Buckeyes haven’t lost to the Illini since 1991 and while Illinois has hung with them in recent years, it’ll be too much Terrelle Pryor this Saturday.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE –16.5

No. 11 Wisconsin vs. No. 24 Michigan State +2, 3:30PM ET
The Spartans will certainly get a lift from Mark Dantonio, who returns to the sidelines (the press box, actually) this weekend after suffering a heart attack following MSU’s overtime win over Notre Dame two weeks ago. The Spartans have rushed for over 200 yards in each of their first four games and while the Badgers have a potent rushing attack themselves, I like MSU to win outright in East Lansing. Every year the Spartans beat an opponent they’re not supposed to and while a win on Saturday would hardly be shocking, it would still be considered an upset with Wisconsin ranked 11th in the nation.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE +2

Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina State +4, 3:30PM ET
I feel as though people are falling asleep on this NC State team, which is coming off impressive wins over Cincinnati and Georgia Tech the past two weekends. They don’t have a great rushing offense, but their passing game led by Russell Wilson ranks 19th in the nation and they’re averaging 37.75 points per game. After losing to Boise State and James Madison earlier in the year, VA Tech has gotten back on track with wins over East Carolina and Boston College the past two weekends. That said, there’s still something missing from this team and while Tyrod Taylor has made a ton of highlight reel plays, he leads an offense that is 87th in passing. I think NC State keeps this game within a field goal and covers.
THE PICK: NC STATE +4

No. 3 Boise State –43.5 vs. New Mexico State, 8:00PM ET
Usually I don’t even consider games that have point spreads of over 30 points because of the threat of a backdoor cover, but I always make an exception when New Mexico State is involved. As long as the Broncos don’t take their foot off the gas I could see them scoring in the 60s this weekend. The Aggies rank second-to-last in total defense among FBS teams and the Broncos can ill-afford to suffer a letdown now that they’re ranked third in the nation. Boise rolls.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE –43.5

Season Record: 4-4

By the end of the day today, we could have a whole new look at the national title picture. Then again, you could say that any week in college football.

This time, however, there’s actually a chance that things could get jumbled up. The top team in the country, Alabama, is facing by far its stiffest test of the season as it travels to Fayetteville to take on Ryan Mallett and Arkansas. No. 3 Boise State will play in its second — and probably last — “showcase” game of the year when it plays host to Oregon State.

We know that if Boise State loses, a lot of the debate about who deserves what will go away, at least until we have to sort through a handful of one-loss teams at the end of the season (but we’ll save that for later). If the Tide lose and the Broncos win, is Boise all of the sudden in the driver’s seat for a spot in the title game? Probably not, actually.

It’s a big slate today, so find a spot on the couch by the mid-afternoon games and settle in for some good football. Read the rest of this entry »