This is it: This is the nasty wench that I’m putting all my money on. Anything less than 32 out of 32 correct picks and I consider this a failure.

All right, so I’ll take 10 of 32 correct picks – especially this year where the draft is the ultimate mystery. Thanks to the ongoing CBA fiasco, teams haven’t had the opportunity to address needs in free agency, meaning there are countless scenarios that we could see play out Thursday night in the first round.

Feel free to poke, prod and criticize – just make sure you do it before the draft. Don’t be like this clown, who told me how dumb I was two years after I compiled my 2009 mock draft. (I know how dumb I am, so just be up front with me at the start.)

As a bonus, my colleague at TSR, John Paulsen, spent some time crunching the numbers in order to provide scouting combine comparisons for every player. I’ll let him describe the method behind his madness.

John: I compared each prospect’s combine scores with players from the last six combines to determine the best athletic comparison. There are eight categories: height, weight, 40-yard dash, shuttle, 3-cone, vertical leap, broad jump and bench press. Not all prospects compete in all six tests, so certain comparisons are more confident than others.
Realize that we’re not suggesting that these players will turn into their comparisons – we’re simply saying that athletically, this is whom each prospect compares to based on their combine numbers.

All right – let’s get nasty, Ricky.

No. 1 Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is a possibility at this pick, but I think when it comes down to it Ron Rivera will want to kick off his tenure in Carolina by taking a franchise quarterback. Newton is the ultimate boom or bust selection.
Combine Comparisons: Vince Young; Tim Tebow.

No. 2 Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
There has been a lot of talk the last two days that the Broncos are considering Von Miller with this pick. But he’s not the ideal fit for the 4-3 in my eyes and I think in the end, Dareus is too good to pass up here.
Combine Comparisons: Marcus Thomas; Corvey Irvin; Red Bryant.

No. 3 Buffalo Bills: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
The Bills may flirt with the idea of taking a quarterback with this pick and they could certainly use an upgrade on the defensive line. But in the end, I think GM Buddy Nix will take the unquestioned best player in the draft.
Combine Comparisons: Brandon Ghee, Malcom Jenkins, Myron Lewis, Aquib Talib. As John notes, Peterson is faster than all four, although Talib is the best comparison in terms of size/speed. Another interesting comparison is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who has the speed, but Peterson is almost 40 lbs heavier. Based on his 40, we really haven’t seen anyone with Peterson’s size/speed combination in the last six years.

No. 4 Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
The Bengals need to figure out their quarterback situation in regards to Carson Palmer but I don’t think they’ll pull the trigger on Blaine Gabbert here. With T.O. not expected back and Chad Ochocinco’s status up in the air, I like the Bengals to go receiver at this spot. Julio Jones is definitely a possibility (a lot of mocks have Cincy taking him), but Green is still the better overall prospect.
Combine Comparisons: Malcom Kelly; Limas Sweed; Hank Baskett.

No. 5 Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
Miller might not slip past Buffalo at No. 3 but if he does, I think Arizona would love to pair him with O’Brien Schofield at outside linebacker. Miller is viewed as the best pass-rushing OLB in the draft, which is certainly a need for the Cardinals (especially after they release Joey Porter and his $5.75 million salary in 2011).
Combine Comparisons: Aaron Curry; Clay Matthews.

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While appearing on Mike and Mike on Thursday morning, ESPN’s Adam Schefter said that the Bills will give Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert a “long, hard look” at the No. 3 pick in tonight’s draft.

“I’ve been hearing buzz since last night,” Schefter said. “If Cam Newton was in play for the Bills, why wouldn’t Blaine Gabbert?”

I get what Schefter’s saying, although Newton would seemingly attract Chan Gailey more than Gabbert would, because the Buffalo head coach likes mobile quarterbacks. Of course, Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t mobile and had some success under Gailey last season, so it’s not like Gailey only goes with mobile quarterbacks. Plus, Gabbert has above average athleticism for his size.

With the amount of needs the Bills have on defense, I wouldn’t think they would draft a quarterback at No. 3. This could just be a smokescreen in order to lure a QB-needy team up to No. 3 so that they can acquire more picks and still land a defender of their choice further down. But you never know – this draft is a mystery.

The closer we get to Thursday’s NFL draft, the more muddled Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert’s stock appears to be.

According to NFL Network’s Mike Lombardi, Gabbert’s draft stock is “slipping” and the 49ers, who hold the seventh overall pick, are only “lukewarm” on the Missouri product. Lombardi even suggests that Gabbert “could easily slide out of the top 10.”

I don’t buy this. I can see the 49ers not being interested in Gabbert, but I don’t see him falling out of the top 10. Yes, the fact that he played in the spread at MIZZOU raises concerns. But Sam Bradford proved last year that just because a QB played in the spread in college, doesn’t mean he won’t be able to tie his shoes without falling over as soon as he reaches the pros.

Gabbert is a big, strong-armed passer with above-average athletic ability and a good football I.Q. Is he unpolished? Yes, much like all quarterback prospects are at this stage. Is he a sure thing? No, but no prospect is a sure thing heading into the draft.

Assuming Carolina passes on him with the first overall pick, the Bills, Bengals, Cardinals, 49ers, Titans and Redskins are all possibilities for Gabbert in the top 10. In fact, I really like him at No. 8 overall to Tennessee, which will obviously need a quarterback once it dumps Vince Young. I’m not as connected as Lombardi and I would need a calculator to add up how many times I’ve missed on observations when it comes to previous drafts (a fact readers are never shy to remind me about…a-holes). But I don’t see a well put-together quarterback prospect like Gabbert slipping out of the top 10.

Of all the teams that are currently slated to draft in the top 10 on Thursday, the Tennessee Titans might be the biggest enigma of them all.

Spend some time scouring the internet for mock drafts and you’ll find that the majority of them have the Titans taking a defensive lineman with the eighth overall pick. There are a handful of draft observers that have the Titans taking Auburn’s Nick Fairley, who remind some of former Tennessee defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth.

But when you consider the Titans’ list of needs, defensive tackle isn’t among them. Guard is a potential need, as is inside linebacker and cornerback. Outside linebacker is also a bigger need than defensive tackle, and one could make the argument that safety is as well.

Oh, and the Titans may want to think about doing something at quarterback, which is easily the team’s biggest hole heading into Thursday night.

Vince Young’s name may still be on the Titans’ roster, but at this point it’s just a formality. Young’s days in Tennessee are numbered, as confirmed by new head coach Mike Munchak over the weekend. Seeing as how Kerry Collins is set to become a free agent once the labor issue is resolved, there’s a ton of uncertainty for the Titans surrounding the most important position on the field.

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Here are Jon Gruden’s QB Camp videos with Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett and Andy Dalton.

Cam Newton

Blaine Gabbert

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It’s amazing that it’s been over a month since I last compiled a mock draft. I mean, with all of the free agency rumors flying around the web these days, I find my decision not to release an updated mock rather irresponsible.

Oh wait, that’s right: There is no free agency. Thank YOU, NFL players and owners…you unbelievable bums.

With a week left to go, here’s my latest crack at predicting the first round of 2011 NFL Draft. I’ll send out one final mock next week before we do the damn thing at Radio City Music Hall on April 28.

View NFL Mock Draft 3.0

1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
The Panthers have been tight-lipped about who they’re taking, and they should be. Hey, it’s not like they can fire up contract talks with Newton’s agent seeing as how there’s no CBA currently in place. It’s time for the Panthers to settle on a franchise quarterback and even though there are plenty of warning signs surrounding Newton, I believe he’ll be their pick.

2. Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
The Broncos have several needs, including safety, tight end and running back. But John Fox is a defensive-minded coach and defensive tackle is arguably the team’s biggest need, making Dareus the pick here.

3. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Is cornerback a pressing need for the Bills? No. Was running back a pressing need for the Bills last year when they took C.J. Spiller? For the second year in a row, I think GM Buddy Nix will take the best player available, regardless of position. And seeing as how Peterson is viewed as the most complete player in the draft, I like his chances of winding up in Buffalo.

4. Cincinnati Bengals: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
The Bengals seem dead set on bringing back Carson Palmer, even though he seems dead set on retiring if the team doesn’t trade him this offseason. T.O. won’t be back next year and Chad Ochocinco’s days in Cincinnati are running out as well. Jones has really impressed teams this offseason with his blend of size, speed and route-running ability. Some believe he’s a better prospect than Georgia’s A.J. Green.

5. Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
Miller might be gone by this pick but if everything breaks right, I like Arizona selecting him at this spot. The Cardinals desperately lack a pass-rushing presence at the linebacker position and Miller can really get after the quarterback. So you do the math, buck-o.

6. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Mike Holmgren is slowly adding pieces to his West Coast Offense and it’s time for him to find his Jerry Rice. Jones would arguably be a better fit for the Browns because of his blocking ability, but Holmgren wouldn’t complain if Green fell to him here. The former Georgia product can help aid in the development of Colt McCoy.

7. San Francisco 49ers: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
This team is hard to figure out. They would seemingly like to bring back Alex Smith for one year and take a QB in one of the first two rounds to groom this season. But they could always wait and draft their signal caller of the future next year. San Fran also has needs along the defensive line and at linebacker, making Nick Fairley and Robert Quinn possibilities at this pick as well. They would do back-flips if Peterson fell to them here, but with him off the board they’ll go with the next best thing in Amukamara.

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Despite a report a week ago that stated the Redskins were trying to move up in the first round, Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com writes that Washington is actually trying to trade down.

According to a league source, the Redskins are looking to trade down in the first round with the idea they will draft either Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder or TCU quarterback Andy Dalton.

The Redskins, who pick 10th overall, would like to get a second-round pick from a team in exchange for moving back to their spot in the first round. They could then use their two second-round picks to bolster the defense.

For a team that doesn’t have a third-round pick, this scenario makes a lot more sense than trying to trade up.

The X-factor here would be if Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert were to fall to them at the 10th spot. The Redskins would likely take him there, rather than trading back.

I share in Prisco’s thoughts exactly. Teams can’t trade 2012 draft picks without a CBA in place, so it would be difficult for a team like the Redskins to move up in the first round without having enough 2011 selections to make a deal. Besides, why would the Redskins want to sacrifice maybe first, second and fourth round selections to move up a couple of spots when they don’t have a third rounder? I get that if a team is in love with a player, you move up and get him. But the Redskins may wind up sacrificing their entire draft for one player if they traded up, which might not be worth it in the end.

It sounds like if Gabbert is there at N0. 10, the Skins will take him. If he doesn’t fall, then they could wait to see if Ponder or Dalton is there in the second or third. (Assuming of course that they trade down and acquire a third round pick.)

Pro Football Talk is associated with NBC and is a juggernaut in the industry (82K Twitter followers and counting), and while I appreciate the work that guys like Gregg Rosenthal and Evan Silva do in fantasy circles, some of PFT’s practices bother me.

For example, I just saw this headline on Twitter:

Reading that, I’m thinking, “Wow, Fitzy must have said something pointed about Gabbert.”

Clicking through to the article, I see Fitzgerald’s actual quote:

“I would doubt that we would draft a quarterback that high (No. 5),” Fitzgerald told FOX Sports Arizona on Tuesday. “I would doubt it. But, who am I? I’m just a player.”

The author, Silva (whose work I generally respect), concluded that Fitzgerald must be talking about Blaine Gabbert, since the Cardinals have been linked to the Missouri QB.

Only Fitzgerald never mentioned Gabbert. And he never said that the Cardinals shouldn’t draft a QB. He just said that he doubted they would. Big difference.

Headlines are meant to drive interest and traffic, I get that. But this one was simply misleading.

NFL Network’s Albert Breer tweeted on Monday that there might be “a ton of trade action” involving quarterbacks at the bottom of the first round in this month’s draft.

Wrote this last week … But keep hearing — from everyone — that there’ll be a ton of trade action for QBs at bottom of Round 1.

Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert should be long gone by the time the teams in the bottom of the first round are on the clock. The wildcards appear to be Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett, who could go anywhere in the top 15 to the top of the second round. Florida State’s Christian Ponder and Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick are starting to garner first round attention as well, so maybe the reports about there being “a ton” of late-first round trade action are on the money.

That said, how would Breer, or anyone else for that matter, know what teams are going to do at this point? Teams don’t even know whether or not the CBA will be signed by the end of the month, making the draft an even bigger crapshoot than it already is. Furthermore, teams can’t trade 2012, 2013 or 2014 picks because there is no CBA. Thus, trading selections would seemingly be a more difficult task than in years past.

If I had to guess right now, I would think that Newton and Gabbert will be off the board by pick No. 12, while Locker and Mallett will go in the bottom half of the first round. Ponder (who I think is a perfect fit for Cincinnati) will go in the second and Kaepernick will go in either the second or third. Of course, a lot could change from now until the end of the month though, so we’ll just have to wait and see.

Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press wrote a couple interesting blurbs about Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre in his recent column:

Possible scenario: The Vikings trade their No. 12 overall pick in the draft with their 2012 first-round pick to move high enough to get Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert.

It still looks, though, like Donovan McNabb from the Washington Redskins will end up as the Vikings’ starting QB for next season.

Don’t discount the possibility of Brett Favre, who turns 42 in October, returning next season, but not with the Vikings. Maybe Carolina.

It’s important to take this with a massive grain of salt considering Walters buried these comments at the end of an article that focused on Minnesota Gophers AD Joel Maturi and under the heading “DON’T PRINT THAT.” Clearly Walters is just throwing crap against a wall to see if it sticks.

That said, the McNabb scenario makes sense. Take it for what it’s worth, but I’ve held the belief that the Vikings would go with a veteran quarterback this offseason and then draft a signal caller in the middle rounds for new OC Bill Musgrave to groom. But recent comments made by head coach Leslie Frazier indicate that the Vikings might want to draft a QB in the first round and start him.

Either way, McNabb would be a fit if the Vikes were interested.

As for Favre landing in Carolina, eh, I doubt it. General manager Marty Hurney invested a second round pick in Jimmy Clausen last season and I’m sure new coach Ron Rivera wants to draft a QB like Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert with the first pick. When it comes to Lord Favre, nothing can be ruled out. But him landing in Carolina doesn’t make much sense.