In his latest column, Simmons rails on those that defend Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th-and-2 against the Patriots Sunday night. First, he skewers the idea that it was statistically the right move. Then he questions the assumption that the Colts would have scored had the Pats punted. After that, he questions a few other justifications for Belichick’s decision. The whole thing is a good read, but here’s the meat of his conclusion…

Did it feel like the end of an era? Yeah, a little. The truth is, Belichick is 57 years old. I doubt he’s banking those famous 19-hour work days anymore. I doubt he possesses the same hunger that fueled him when he was trying to escape Bill Parcells’ shadow and make a name for himself. Everything is gravy for him at this point. His place in history is secure.

Career security can be damaging in one of two ways: either you stop taking chances, or you feel emboldened and start taking too many of them. Belichick’s recent history shows that he would rather roll the dice than do something conventionally. He made so many trades in the draft this past April that I can’t even remember where we ended up picking. Right before the season, with the Patriots picked by many as the clear Super Bowl favorite, he dealt one of his defensive pillars (Richard Seymour) to Oakland for a future first-round pick. On Sunday night, he went for the jugular in Indianapolis when the situation demanded prudence.

There is a time for statistics and a time for common sense. And on the road, up six, facing a 4th-and-2 on your own 28 yard-line? That’s a time for common sense.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

- NESW SPORTS has video of Bill Simmons’s appearance on Jimmy Kimmel.

- Over on BLEACHER REPORT, “Jersey Al Bracco” rips into Mike McCarthy for giving the beat reports the same old platitudes after the Packers’ embarrassing loss to the then 0-7 Bucs last week.

- THE BIG LEAD discusses statistical guru Nate Silver’s plan to try to predict the winner of the World Cup.

- SPORTSbyBROOKS has video of a WGN reporter dunking and talking trash to a little kid. The kid starts crying. Nice.

- FANHOUSE explains how those refs at the LSU/Alabama game could not see that Patrick Peterson’s feet were indeed inbounds. The televisions that they use to review plays are not in HD. Seriously.

On the Blazers’ acquisition of Andre Miller…

21. Andre Miller
We knew Miller was a bad fit when the Blazers signed him. It just didn’t feel right. He’s a moody loner; they had great chemistry last season. He needs the ball in his hands; so does Brandon Roy. He likes freelancing; Nate McMillan is hands on. But Portland felt obligated to spend its extra cap money, and nobody else was pursuing Miller, so what transpired was the equivalent of two single wedding guests going through the motions on the dance floor.

I could use someone, and you could use someone. Unfortunately, I hate bald guys and I have a tiny butt; you’re bald and you love bubble butts. We have no spark and are destined to fail. But crap, there’s nobody better. Screw it, would you like to come back to my room?

I get Portland’s thinking: It wanted to turn that cap space into an asset. And I get Miller’s thinking: He wanted to get paid and hoped things would work out. But now we’re here. Incredibly, Portland plans on bringing Miller off the bench. He’s already miserable. (And available, by the way. Make Kevin Pritchard an offer. Seriously, call him right now.) So what did we learn? Just because you have cap space doesn’t mean you HAVE to use it.

On Shaq joining the Cavs…

8. Shaquille O’Neal
Red flag No. 1: He’s 835 pounds. Red flag No. 2: He has never successfully pulled off the whole “sidekick” thing; even to the bitter end, he was playing the big brother/little brother routine with Dwyane Wade. Red flag No. 3: He’s splitting time with Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who might be a better fit for this particular team because of his outside shooting. Red flag No. 4: He has never, ever, ever, not in his entire life, played for a coach as offensively challenged as Mike Brown. Red flag No. 5: He doesn’t have the luxury of Phoenix’s training staff anymore. Red flag No. 6: He’s so fat that it’s like looking at one of those TVs where the HD is screwed up so it makes everyone seem wider. Red flag No. 7: The Suns traded him for two guys who they immediately bought out for a combined $14 million. Red flag No. 8: The Cavs are better off if he’s playing 15-20 minutes a game and that’s it. Red flag No. 9: He’s so fat that it’s possible Delonte West was packing three guns because he got confused and thought Shaq wanted to eat him. Red flag No. 10: He’s awfully close to some records, which will make it awkward if Cleveland tries to reduce his playing time.

That’s 10 red flags. Ten. (To be fair, Shaq doesn’t look THAT fat. He just looks a little, um, heavy. Maybe it’s the uniform that makes him look doughy for some reason. I just know that, when I saw the cover of Sports Illustrated this week, I couldn’t figure out why Aretha Franklin shaved her head. Then I realized it was Shaq.) And that’s before we get into the whole, “Shaq seems like a great guy, but if he’s a great guy, then why did he leave four teams on really bad terms” thing. Be prepared for him to do more harm than good in Cleveland. One difference: If he crosses LeBron like he crossed Nash, he’ll be getting the Braylon Edwards 48-hour ticket out of town.

To celebrate his fantasy football league’s 20th anniversary and the 40th birthday of a buddy, Bill Simmons and a group of friends hit Vegas. As usual, he has a number of funny anecdotes, but this was my favorite from Part 1.

7:45: We will refer to it in 2039 as “The Sneeze.”

Here’s what happened: I stood up at the end of a shoe right as Grady’s cigarette smoke nailed me in the nose and mouth, causing me to abruptly sneeze. Unfortunately, my mouth had water in it, which ended up ejaculating (and really, that’s the right verb) all over our unfriendly female dealer’s hands and arms. In the history of my life, I don’t think I have ever bummed anyone out more. It’s a new record. I could have attacked her with a bat Juan Marichal-style and she would have been happier. She took an exaggerated step back, frowned, grabbed a napkin and wiped the sneeze juice off her hands with a record amount of disdain … and then, to make it more awkward, refused to accept my sincere/mortified apology, which made me friends laugh even harder, which made her hate us even more, which in turn made us dislike her again because she’d been killing us for an hour, which suddenly made me feel happy that I accidentally sneezed all over her.

“We will be talking about that sneeze 30 years from now,” Russ says, wiping the tears from his eyes.

The dealer glares at him. She’s in Eff You Mode. If you know anything about blackjack, you know this ain’t ending well.

Here’s my favorite blurb from Part 2. Bill and his friends are at their fantasy draft, and were given a suite at Ceasar’s by the CEO of a fledgling fantasy football company.

12:20: The doorbell rings. It’s CEO Eric! He’s accompanied by two scantily clad Pizza Girls, five pizzas and a case of Bud Light. I’m not kidding — this almost caused a riot. One girl is dressed like a cheerleader; the other is wearing Tom Brady’s jersey and underwear (only if both had been shrunk to one-fourth the size). Later, CEO Eric described our reaction as “2-year-olds at a birthday party as Barney walks in.” By the way, we’re old.

12:40: Pizza, beer and awkward conversation with the girls is highlighted by a hungover Grady (wearing Tevas) struggling to keep things moving by asking the girl in the Brady jersey, “So, where are you based out of?” My favorite moment of the weekend so far. Slayed me. I want to see this scene re-enacted online with Zach Galifianakis playing Grady. In Tevas.

“So, where are you based out of?” Classic.

Bill Simmons is convinced that “Almost Famous” is the quintessential movie of the aughts, so much so that he decided to pull quotes from the movie and apply them to the 2009 NBA offseason. Here’s an example.

3. Some of the stuff that happens is good for a few people to know about, as opposed to, say … a million people.

To Artest. Here’s a classic case of someone hoodwinking the American public with a 10-year pattern of bizarre behavior that eventually immunized them to all future crazy Ron Artest stories and anecdotes, such as the fact that he’s wearing No. 37 to honor Michael Jackson because it’s the same number of weeks that “Thriller” led the charts (um, what?), or his recent revelation that he had been pining to play for the Lakers for two solid years. Artest told reporters that he wandered into the Lakers’ locker room to express that desire to a showering Kobe Bryant — right after L.A.’s bitter Game 6 thrashing in Boston in the 2008 Finals, no less — adding, “Yeah, I walked in the shower. I’m not a homosexual or nothing like that, but Kobe had no clothes on.”

These anecdotes just bounce off people now. Artest is a benevolent crazy. Or so we think. Being around this nuttiness every day is a little different from merely hearing about the nuttiness in secondhand anecdotes. I know for a fact he routinely broke plays on offense and is still a handful behind the scenes, and the Rockets buried every 2008-09 story that would have made this patently clear. For instance, Artest routinely walked around in his underwear in public places: the Rockets’ team bus, hotels, you name it. People around the team barely flinched after a while. Before Game 7 of the Lakers series — only the biggest game of the entire season — they finally flinched.

Here’s what happened: Artest missed the first two team buses (the ones for players, coaches and team personnel) from Houston’s hotel to the Staples Center and barely made the third and final bus, which was reserved for business staff, sponsors and friends of the team. These stunned people watched Artest sprint to the bus right before it left, jump on and take one of the remaining seats … yes, wearing only his underwear. Owner Leslie Alexander happened to be sitting on the bus and witnessed the whole thing. And you wonder why the Houston Rockets didn’t make any effort whatsoever to bring back Artest.

While I believe Artest is an upgrade over Trevor Ariza for the next 2-3 years, he has to stay relatively sane. While Artest walking around in public in his underwear is certainly strange, Simmons is right — it’s not surprising. We’re immune to these types of stories. Ron Artest is crazy. But on the court, he’s pretty much kept it together for the last few years and he can help the Lakers…if he keeps it together. Did I mention that he has to keep it together?

He has to keep it together.

But back to “Almost Famous.” I too loved this movie, and after reading Simmons’ praise for the director’s cut, I’m going to try to catch it real soon. But, to me, the film represents the only time that Kate Hudson starred in anything good. Check out this list of her starring credits from IMDB.com…

About Adam (2000), 6.2 viewer rating
Gossip (2000), 5.4
Almost Famous (2000), 8.0
Doctor T and the Women (2000), 4.7
The Four Feathers (2002), 6.3
How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days (2003), 6.2
Alex & Emma (2003), 5.4
Le Divorce (2003), 4.9
Raising Helen (2004), 5.7
The Skeleton Key (2005), 6.5
You, Me and Dupree (2006), 5.7
Fool’s Gold (2008), 5.4
My Best Friend’s Girl (2008), 5.7
Bride Wars (2009), 5.0

Taking out pre-rom-com Kate (”Gossip”), Cameron Crowe’s gift (”Almost Famous”), her stab at the epic period piece (”The Four Feathers”) and her stab at a horror/thriller (”The Skeleton Key”), isn’t she the poster girl for bad comedy? I realize that she’s Goldie Hawn’s daughter, but that doesn’t mean that she’s automatically going to be comedic gold.

Hudson proved in “Almost Famous” that she can act, and she has a reputation for being a hard worker and a joy to be around. But, at 30, she’s at the point in her career where she can put the crappy rom-coms on hold for a while and flex her acting muscle a little bit. She shined in “Almost Famous” because her character had a little bit of grit and a lot of sadness to her. I’d love to see her take on more roles where she doesn’t eventually get the guy before the credits roll.

In Bill Simmons’s most recent mailbag, a reader asks a question about former Redskins and Texans GM Charley Casserly…

Q: I’m taking Sports Leadership taught by Charley Casserly at Georgetown next fall. What percentage of the class is going to be on “How to draft a defensive end from N.C. State even when a running back from USC is available”?
– Rawiri, Washington

SG: Hold on, hold on, hold on … Charley Casserly is teaching at Georgetown??? This is the last straw! What’s next — Trevor Ariza’s agent and Lamar Odom’s agent teaching a class in sports law? For years, I’ve been waiting for some college or university to approach me about teaching a class called “Sports Column Writing 101,” “How to be Lazy and Succeed” or “Weaving Pop Culture and Sports to Your Own Literary Detriment.” Did I get one offer? Did UCLA ever say, “Let’s give Simmons a class, I bet 30 kids will be dumb enough to sign up?” Noooooooooooooo! But failed GM Charley Casserly gets to teach kids at Georgetown, the school I wanted to attend that brutally rejected me in 1988? This makes me want to skin sheep in front of a PETA rally. I’m so bitter right now.

Why is Simmons hating on Casserly? He doesn’t offer any evidence, so I guess that this is all about the Mario Williams-over-Reggie Bush pick in 2006. Only that pick has turned out pretty well for the Texans. Williams was a Pro Bowler last year and Bush has missed 10 games in his first three seasons.

In fact, after a semi-disastrous start in Houston in 2002 (David Carr, Jabar Gaffney and Fred Weary), Casserly rebounded in 2003-2006 by drafting five future Pro Bowlers (Williams, Andre Johnson, Jerome Mathis, DeMeco Ryans and Owen Daniels). Ryans was named Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2006. The Texans went 2-14 in the 2005 season, and Casserly was run out of town resigned after the 2006 Draft. But the team has improved since then, posting a respectable 22-26 record in the three years since his departure. Much of the credit for this leap is given to the aforementioned players that Casserly drafted.

Prior to joining the Texans, Casserly was the GM for the Washington Redskins, where he won Executive of the Year honors in 1999 after fleecing the Saints for all their picks in the draft (as well as a future first and third) while still landing the guy he wanted — Champ Bailey.

While Casserly did have his share of clunkers (Heath Shuler must be mentioned), the guy had his share of good picks as well. Again, I don’t know what Simmons’s beef is here, but if it’s the whole Williams/Bush thing, then he should check his facts — Casserly has been vindicated.

Read the first four parts of Correcting Bill Simmons.