If I were smart I would change my college football predictions to “Tail Material” and my NFL predictions to “Simply f#$king Awful.”

But I’m not that smart.

While my college prediction record is well above .500 at 21-13-2 on the year, my NFL record continues to sink into the abyss. The Saints scored a meaningless touchdown with 17 seconds left against the Rams last Sunday to push the combined score over the total when, of course, I had the under 48.5. I knew it was going to be a bad day but considering I also had the Giants, Broncos and Seahawks, I didn’t know it was going to be a train wreck of an afternoon.

My 0-4, yes 0-4, Week 8 brings my season record to 13-19. Fade me now or forever hold your peace.

Giants @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
The Giants have screwed me at every turn this year but I’m finally on to them. You see, if they’re predicted to win they’re liable to throw up a stinker because they have a tendency to play down to their competition. That’s why they almost lost to Arizona on the road, lost to Seattle at home and needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat a winless Miami team last Sunday. But when the masses believe they’ll lose, there the G-Men are, up in everyone’s faces with an outright win. Go back to Week 3 when they played the Eagles on the road. They were 9-point underdogs and they won outright in impression fashion. New York has had New England’s number for years so I’ll gladly take the points with the Giants – Bill Belichick and his non-consecutive loss streak be damned.
THE PICK: NEW YORK GIANTS +9

Packers @ Chargers, 4:15PM ET
If Philip Rivers didn’t fumble late in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs on Monday night and the Chargers went on to win that game, then the spread for this game would have probably stayed around 3 points. Instead, San Diego is a 5.5-point home underdog against a Green Bay team that is undefeated but has showed signs of cracking. They haven’t played a complete game since their 49-23 win over the Broncos in Week 4. They stunk in the first half against Atlanta in Week 5, stunk in the second half against St. Louis in Week 6 and stunk in the fourth quarter against Minnesota in Week 7. Teams coming off their byes have generally struggled in the NFL this year, so I’m taking the Chargers and the points. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see San Diego win outright.
THE PICK: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS +5.5

Falcons @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
I don’t trust the Falcons as far as I can throw them, which isn’t very far. They have rarely crushed teams under conservative coach Mike Smith and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey. They always find a way to leave opponents in the game until the very last second and I don’t think this week will be any different, even though they’re playing a winless Indianapolis team. Atlanta also has a date coming up next week with New Orleans so this game has trap written all over it.
THE PICK: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7

Dolphins @ Chiefs, 1:00PM ET
Here’s letdown game No. 2 on my list this week. The Chiefs must feel as though they’ve played a full 16-game season even though this is only Week 9. After starting the year 0-3, they’ve battled back with four-straight wins, including two against divisional opponents the past couple of weeks. Now they’re favored at home against a team they should beat in winless Miami. The Dolphins showed last Sunday that they’re not quite ready to throw in the towel and they’re going to win a game at some point. I don’t know if it’ll be this week or not that Miami collects its first win but I’m taking the points either way.
THE PICK: MIAMI DOLPHINS +4

Last Week: 0-4
Season: 13-19

Check out the most current NFL Football Betting odds.

Giants @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
There are a couple of really good matchups on this week’s schedule, including Ravens-Steelers, Bucs-Saitns and Packers-Chargers. But none of them compare to this one when you think about the intrigue surrounding this game. Not only were the Giants the ones to ruin the Patriots’ perfect season back in 2007, but New England is also coming off a loss and Bill Belichick never loses when coming off a loss. But for whatever reason, New York has had New England’s number over the years. Could you imagine how burned Belichick would be if the Giants were the ones to end his non-consecutive losing streak? Game…of…the…week.

Ravens @ Steelers, 8:20PM ET
It doesn’t get much better than this, especially when you considering how hot the Steelers are and how badly the Ravens beat Pittsburgh in Baltimore in Week 1. The Steelers are coming off an emotional win against the Patriots but Pittsburgh and Baltimore always get up for each other so don’t expect Mike Tomlin’s squad to suffer a letdown. But can Ben Roethlisberger bounce back from his rough Week 1 performance in order to create even more of a divide between these two teams in the AFC North? After brutal matchup after brutal matchup for the Sunday Night Football gang, finally NBC gets a good game.

Bears @ Eagles, 8:30PM ET, Monday
Are the Eagles back? That’s the question on everyone’s mind. They might be but don’t forget Michael Vick has never beaten the Bears, which includes losing 31-26 in Chicago last season. For whatever reason, Vick has never been able to get the best of Brian Urlacher and with the Bears having two weeks to prepare for this game, it’ll be interesting to see how Philly plays following its 34-7 dismantling of Dallas last Sunday.

Bucs @ Saints, 1:00PM ET
I wouldn’t want to be Raheem Morris’ Bucs this weekend. Not only are the Saints steamed that they lost to Tampa three weeks ago but they’re also coming off an embarrassing loss to the previously winless Rams last Sunday. No wonder oddsmakers set the spread at New Orleans –9 despite the fact that this is a divisional game and should be close. If the Bucs can drum up some pressure on Drew Brees using their front four and force turnovers, Tampa could hand New Orleans its second straight loss. But I wouldn’t count on the Bucs pulling off the upset. The Saints have been a different team at home this year. A 62-7-type of team.

Packers @ Chargers, 4:15PM ET
We’re about to see what Norv Turner’s squad is made of. They had a win in the bag on Monday night before Philip Rivers fumbled it away and now the undefeated defending Super Bowl champions come in this Sunday. San Diego’s pass rush has been very good this season but its secondary has been picked apart at times. If the Chargers can get after Aaron Rodgers then there’s no reason to think that San Diego can’t pull off the upset – especially at home. But on the other side of the ball, if the Chargers can’t get their running game going then Rodgers may eventually start to pick apart the Bolts’ secondary. This is an extremely interesting matchup.

Jets @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
What a great matchup this will be between one of the best passing attacks in the league and one of the best pass defenses. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills’ offense have moved the ball through the air at will but the Jets don’t wilt in coverage. That said, Rex Ryan better get more consistency out of his pass rush or else the Bills could walk away with yet another divisional win. The Jets can’t afford another divisional loss on their record.

Falcons @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
The Falcons have a great opportunity to right the ship after a slow start. If they beat the Colts on Sunday, they’d be 5-3 heading into their big showdown with the Saints next week. But beware the trap. The Saints overlooked the Rams last Sunday and we all saw what happened. Because of the conservative ways of Mike Smith and OC Mike Mularkey, the Falcons have tendency to leave opponents in games. If they allow the Colts to stick around at home, there’s no reason Indy can’t pull off the upset. Atlanta better use New Orleans’ loss to St. Louis last Sunday as a warning of what could happen if it doesn’t come to play this weekend.

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Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- “If only the Rams could now somehow beat the Saints on Sunday, this would be the greatest sports weekend EVER,” uttered the random St. Louis fan on Friday night after the Cardinals defeated the Rangers in Game 7 of the World Series. How do the previously winless Rams defeat a team in the Saints that just racked up 62 points on the Colts? Well, that’s pretty easy. When you can’t stop Steven Jackson even though you know he’s going to get the ball every down, you lose two turnovers over on your side of the field, and you don’t protect your quarterback, you’re going to lose to most opponents regardless of whether or not they have any wins. The Rams won this game because of Jackson and their defense, which sacked Drew Brees six times and returned one of his passes for a game-clinching touchdown in the fourth quarter. Chris Long absolutely abused Charles Brown, who should have been given more help because he clearly needed it. The Rams clearly haven’t checked out and they’ll continue to fight every Sunday. That was apparent for anyone who saw Jackson flip out on his offensive line late in the second half following yet another false start penalty. What a sweet first win this was for a city that is on cloud nine right now.

- It’s not really shocking that the 2-6 Panthers lost another game. But considering whom they were playing and given that they were 3.5-point home favorites, it was a little surprising to see Carolina go down in flames to Minnesota on Sunday. Christian Ponder’s 102.7 passer rating and 8.4 yards per attempt were both season-highs for the Vikings, who apparently just should have started the kid from Week 1 and bypassed acquiring Donovan McNabb altogether. Ponder threw for 236 yards and a touchdown on 18-of-28 passing while earning his first career win thanks in large part to Olindo Mare’s inability to hit a 31-yard chip shot. The miss, which came with under a minute left to play, cost the Panthers an opportunity to force overtime. Good thing Carolina GM Marty Hurney spent so much money on Mare this offseason. Dude was totally worth it.

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The quarterback has always been the most important position in pro football, even in the days when the running game was dominant. Many fans don’t realize that quarterbacks called all the plays as late as the 1970s and into the early 1980s. So even if offenses weren’t quite as complex back then and great teams had excellent running games, having a field general like Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw or Roger Staubach was critical. As the NFL evolved into a more pass-happy league, an evolution that has accelerated in the last ten years with rules protecting the quarterbacks and defenseless receivers, the importance of the quarterback has only been magnified.

This reality makes the relationship between the head coach and the quarterback the most important in pro football. Look at the great teams over the years, and you see great partnerships between coach and quarterback leading to success on the field. It’s interesting to take a look back and see how these relationships took shape and see how they varied based on the situations and the personalities involved. Here are several interesting examples:

1-Bill Belichick and Tom Brady

Bill Belichick was known as a defensive genius when he took over the New England Patriots, but he was also known as a rigid coach who had a complete lack of imagination on offense as a result of his years as head coach of the Cleveland Browns. Belichick wanted the quarterback to be just another position on the field as he didn’t seem to acknowledge the leadership qualities of the position. Tom Brady was a sixth round pick sitting on the bench behind Drew Bledsoe.

When Bledsoe got hurt, Belichick turned to Brady and immediately saw Brady’s talent, decision-making and leadership ability. When Bledsoe came back, Belichick decided to stay with Brady, which at the time was a controversial decision. They made it to the Super Bowl, and by then Belichick has so much confidence in Brady that he made the aggressive decision to drive down the field with little time left in the fourth quarter in a tie game against the Rams. John Madden famously said on television that the Patriots should have just run out the clock and took their chances in overtime. Instead, Brady drove the Pats down to the game-winning field goal.

Two more Super Bowls and one undefeated regular season later, this partnership between Belichick and Brady is one of the most successful in NFL history. Belichick and his offensive coaches let Brady achieve his full potential by becoming just as imaginative on offense as Belichick had been his whole career on defense. From year to year the Patriots would beat you in many different ways, and then they grabbed Randy Moss they were almost unbeatable.

2-Mike Shanahan and John Elway

John Elway is one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. Yet despite his heroics with “The Drive” and countless other games that he won on sheer athletic ability, Elway had never managed to win a Super Bowl. He never had a real running game, and the Denver defenses were routinely embarrassed in Super Bowls. Then Mike Shanahan arrived. Shanahan is a stubborn system guy, and since the John Elway days he’s not had nearly as much success with his arrogant attitude. But Shanahan’s system was exactly what Elway needed. Elway bought into the changes which placed more emphasis on a running game and a disciplined approach to the passing game, and the result was two Super Bowl titles.

3-Bill Walsh and Joe Montana

Bill Walsh was a system guy. He was an offensive genius who dominated the NFL with his West Coast offense, and he happened to find the perfect quarterback for his system in third-round draft pick Joe Montana. Montana was very accurate and incredibly smart, and he played the quarterback position flawlessly in this system. Of course the 49ers were loaded with talent on offense, but the natural relationship between Walsh and Montana set a standard that would be copied over and over again in the NFL. Look at Aaron Rodgers today, and you see flashes on what Walsh and Montana created thirty years ago. Rodgers and Mike McCarthy have forged a great relationship following the Brett Favre drama in Green Bay.

Of course there are exceptions that help prove the rule. Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw never got along, but they managed to ride one of the best defenses in history plus a great running game to four Super Bowls, and Bradshaw thrived under pressure despite his frosty relationship with Noll. Bill Parcells was notorious for riding Phil Simms, and they had great success as well.

But there’s no doubt that the relationship between the head coach and the quarterback is usually a critical component to sustained success in the NFL. It will be interesting to see how young quarterbacks like Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford grow with their head coaches.

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Oh, how I crashed and burned in glorious fashion last Sunday.

I picked the Cowboys, who coughed up a 27-3 lead to the Lions.

I had the Bears, who were covering with just over a minute to play before they allowed Cam “Backdoor Cover” Newton to waltz right down the field and score a meaningless touchdown on a fourth-and-goal with just seconds remaining.

I had the Cardinals, who were beating the Giants with five minutes remaining in the game before losing and finally, I had the Broncos, who were promptly hammered by the Packers in Green Bay.

For those scoring at home, that was an 0-4 Sunday, which runs my season record to 5-11 on the year. If you’re not cashing these puppies in, then I highly recommend you start doing so. The pickings don’t get any better than this…

Eagles @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
The Eagles’ offensive line, secondary, and run defense have struggled mightily over the last three weeks and yet Michael Vick and Co. still find themselves as 3-point road favorites in Buffalo. What a slap in the face to a good Bills team, which got a lesson in humility last Sunday in Cincinnati. Buffalo is a better team right now than Philadelphia, plain and simple. So I’ll gladly take the points with the home dog.
THE PICK: BILLS +3

Seahawks @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
I’m going to eat a lot of chalk today but I don’t really mind. The Seahawks may have played well in the second half last week against the Falcons, but Atlanta inexplicably went to a shell defense in the third quarter and completely took its foot off the gas offensively. That allowed Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks to get back into a game they should have been blown out in. I thought Eli Manning and the Giants would suffer a letdown last Sunday in Arizona and for three and a half quarters, it looked like they would. But his New York team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and I like the G-Men to roll against a Seattle squad that is brutal on the road.
THE PICK: GIANTS –9.5.

Jets @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
I’m highly aware that the Jets went into Foxboro during the playoffs last season and beat the Patriots in impressive fashion. But Mark Sanchez and the Jets also have mystical powers that apparently only work in the postseason. During the regular season, Sanchez is liable to throw for 76 yards and two interceptions in any given game. New York can’t run the ball and has major issues on offense. If the Patriots get up big, don’t expect Bill Belichick to let up after his team was embarrassed in Buffalo after squandering a 21-0 first half lead. I think this game will be more like the 45-3 thrashing the Pats served the Jets in the regular season last year than the New England’s home playoff loss a few months later.
THE PICK: PATRIOTS –7.5.

Packers @ Falcons, 8:20PM ET
This the second big mismatch on the Week 5 schedule behind Jets-Patriots. Forget the fact that the Packers went into Atlanta last year and drubbed the Falcons 48-21 in the playoffs. Green Bay is simply leaps and bounds better than Atlanta at this point in the 2011 season. The Falcons have major issues along the offensive line and Aaron Rodgers will feast on the likes of Dunta Robinson in the passing game. I think it was a bad omen that the Falcons blew a 27-7 lead last week in Seattle. They may have won the game but the coaching staff gets too predictable and too conservative once this team builds a lead. Fortunately for Mike Smith and Co, the Falcons probably won’t have too many leads come Sunday night.
THE PICK: PACKERS –5.5

Last Week: 0-4
Season: 5-11

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a list of Sunday’s NFL Odds.

After tonight there are no more predictions, no more projections and no more speculation. After tonight, the NFL season will have begun and it’s time to put the pre–season prognosticating to rest and let teams settle things on the field.

But for one last time before the games start counting for real, let’s examine what could potentially trip up contenders in both conferences. Below are 16 postseason contenders for the 2011 NFL season, along with 16 questions that revolve around concerns that that team has heading into the new year.

Patriots: What about the last line of defense?
The Patriots did a fantastic job this offseason addressing their need for more pass-rushers. But Bill Belichick may have created another weakness by leaving himself awfully thin at safety with the release of veterans Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders. Granted, Meriweather was less than impressive a year ago and Sanders has been injury prone throughout the years. For Meriweather, he often took bad angles to the ball last season and was caught out of position numerous times throughout the year. But in releasing both he and Sanders, Belichick is putting a lot of faith in Patrick Chung and 2010 rookie free agent Sergio Brown to man both safety positions. If Chung and Brown stay healthy and hold their own, then Belichick will once again look like a genius in his personnel decisions. If they falter, it doesn’t appear as though Belichick has left himself with a plan B.

Jets: Can Sanchez step up in the regular season?
If Mark Sanchez played as well in the regular season as he has in the postseason then maybe the Jets wouldn’t have to win playoff games on the road every year. Sanchez did take a step forward in his development last year but his consistency week-to-week remains an issue. This is a Jets team that could contend for a Super Bowl berth but not if Sanchez doesn’t continue to raise the level of his play. The goal for Rex Ryan and his team shouldn’t be the Super Bowl: it should be supplanting the Patriots in the AFC East first. Then they can set their sights a little higher.

Colts: How long will Peyton be out?
There’s no bigger question that needs to be answered for the Colts. With Manning they’ll once again be favored to win the AFC South. Without him they’ll probably sink to the bottom of the division. Kerry Collins may be able to keep this team afloat for a game or two, but without Manning the Colts will inevitably fall over a 16-game season. Hopefully for Indy’s sake Manning will return in a few weeks and more importantly, he’ll be close to 100-percent healthy. But there are reports that he’ll be out “a while” and if so, the next team on this list will have its shot to win the AFC South crown.

Texans: Is the defense really fixed?
Regular readers know that I fully believe this is the Texans’ year. I love the hiring of Wade Phillips, who has a long history of turning teams around in his first year as either head coach or defensive coordinator. This team also went a long way in shoring up a weakness with the signing of free agent cornerback Jonathan Joseph. But question still remain on that side of the ball. Is Mario Williams a linebacker? Can Kareem Jackson make strides in his second year? Will the safety position be a spot opponents can exploit? Arian Foster’s hamstring is a concern, as is whether or not Matt Schaub is the right man to get this team over the hump. But if the defense hasn’t been fixed then it won’t matter how much Foster or Schaub contribute because the Texans will fall short of expectations once again.

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He’s been AWOL through most of camp, and the peanut gallery has been getting restless, but Albert Haynesworth got some good reviews from Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald for his play in the final preseason game for the Pats.

But after a training camp riddled with missed practices — he didn’t participate for 19 straight days at one point, apparent maintenance for a bad knee — and a court appearance thrown in for good measure, you had to wonder if he ever would make it on the field.

Last night’s glimpse of No. 92 certainly was promising. The very first play, Haynesworth burst out of his stance and made a strong interior rush, thrusting guard Chris White back into quarterback David Carr. Haynesworth slapped White a few times for good measure, as if to let him know he would be coming back to torture him some more.

“Hell, I wanted to get a sack,” Haynesworth said of that first play, on which Patrick Chung then recovered a fumble. “David Carr always gives me a sack. I always like David Carr. That’s what I was looking at . . . a sack.”

From there on out, Haynesworth pretty much played every other defensive series in the first half. His next series in, he showed even more of what he can bring to the table, making two tackles. Both times, the crowd let out huge cheers when his name was called.

Haynesworth’s second tackle showed his incredible athleticism. He tore by his blocker, quickly cut across the line and nabbed Andre Brown from behind. Granted, the Pats’ starters played against the Giants’ second unit, but just having Haynesworth engaged, forcing his will, being mean and menacing, was an encouraging first sign.

Haynesworth continues to talk about how happy he is in New England. He also discusses the d-line rotation and how he’s expected to go full speed on all plays and then signal when he needs a breather. Bill Belichick and the Pats seem to have figured out how to manage spoiled players like Haynesworth. Let’s see if it carries over to the regular season.

Mad genius Bill Belichick is getting props for his off-season moves, and the odds-makers also like the free agent coups of the Eagles. Of course, they also respect Aaron Rodgers and the Pack, even though they’ve been quiet.

Here’s how they are ranked when you look at the NFL futures on the odds to win the Super Bowl:

New England Patriots: 6.5/1 odds

Green Bay Packers: 7/1 odds

Philadelphia Eagles: 7.5/1 odds

The Jets are at 12/1 and the Steelers are at 14/1.

Check out the rest of the odds and get ready for a fun season.

Albert Haynesworth is saying all the right things in New England:

To this point, Belichick has liked what he’s seen from Haynesworth.

“Albert has worked hard. I think that it’s coming (along),” Belichick said. “We’ve got a long way to go, so just take it day by day, but I think he’s doing fine.”

Numerous times in the team’s last two practices, Haynesworth has broken through the line to disrupt a play. He explained that he’s still getting his legs under him, but that the role reminds him of what he played in Tennessee, which would signal a Patriots shift to a 4-3 alignment, with Haynesworth in a disruptive role lining up shaded on the center or guard.

Haynesworth said he first got word of the trade to New England in a text message at 6:30 a.m., and was excited for the chance to play for Belichick.

“I always liked Coach Belichick, just the way he did things, the way the team performed, the way he handled the team and everything,” he said. “Now being on the inside, he’s very detail oriented and he demands perfection every time. I’ve been on some really good teams, with a lot of great players, but I’ve never been in a situation where it’s like perfection every time, not for a person but for the team.”

Haynesworth passed the Patriots’ conditioning test Sunday and said he feels like he’s in good shape, although there is still some rust to shake off.

In Washington, he expressed reservations about playing nose tackle in a 3-4 alignment. Asked if he’s willing to play in a 3-4 in New England, he responded, “I’m willing to attack the quarterback and kill the running back, knock everything back. Whatever gap the ball is in, that’s the gap I want to be in.”

Haynesworth said one aspect that has surprised him since arriving in New England last Thursday is how welcoming everyone has been.

Maybe he’ll revert to his old self, but context is everything in life, and Haynesworth seems to understand that he has a real opportunity here.

This also shows a real contrast between Bill Belichick and Mike Shanahan. I blame Shanahan and the Redskins for most of the problems last season with Haynesworth. Sure, the guy can be a real jerk, but he’s a dominating force as a 4-3 tackle, yet Shanahan insisted on playing him as a nose tackle in the 3-4. It was idiotic, and it helps to explain why Shanahan went through defensive coordinators in Denver like hot women go through shoes. In contrast, Belichick will happily alter his scheme to fit his talent. He wasn’t always like that. I had to suffer watching him coach the Browns back in the 90s, but he obviously became a better coach through the years. Shanahan on the other hand seems to be regressing as his ego grows.

Like Mike Florio, I like this trade (not yet confirmed) for both teams.

As Florio points out, people will give Bill Belichick the benefit of the doubt. Other teams would likely be criticized for taking on this head case.

That said, Belichick will likely use Albert Haynesworth properly, avoided the idiotic showdowns in Washington where defensive offensive “genius” Mike Shanahan tried to make this elite interior pass rusher into a hole-clogging nose tackle.

As resident Patriots homer expert Rosenthal points out, the Pats use a 4-3 front roughly half the time. Thus, Haynesworth likely will be a part-time player, but he possibly will be in the alignment he prefers 100 percent of the time that he’s on the field.

And while there’s no way he’d be asked to play the nose tackle position in New England’s 3-4 alignment, thanks to the presence of Vince Wilfork, Belichick surely wouldn’t expect Haynesworth to be a traditional lineman-occupying presence at defensive end in that formation. That’s where Belichick’s brain becomes important. When a player doesn’t like a certain type of system, it’s because he doesn’t play as well in that system. So instead of forcing Haynesworth to eat his brussel sprouts, Belichick will find ways to let Haynesworth get the most out of his talents. Who knows? Maybe that will mean periodically lining him up on the edge in obvious passing situations and letting him maul a tackle one-on-one and chase down the quarterback.

Belichick understands the concept of calculated risks. His team needs a pass rush, and this move makes sense.

Meanwhile, the Redskins are looking for a fresh start, so this helps. We haven’t seen them break the bank yet with idiotic free agent signings, so maybe new GM Bruce Allen might be taking control from Mr. Ego Daniel Snyder.