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NFL Week 10 MVP Power Rankings

Mike Farley — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 12:00:37 +0000

We’re getting deeper into November now, and as we do the playoff races in the NFL are getting tighter. That means certain players are beginning to step up an show their mettle at crunch time, while others are quietly fading off the map a bit. Here is our updated power rankings for NFL MVP….

1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—Thanks to Bill Belichick giving him a short field to work with last Sunday night, Manning once again led his team to victory to reach 9-0. But let’s not forget the Colts were trailing by 17 early in the fourth quarter before Manning led his team’s comeback.

2. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings—It’s safe to say that nobody expected Brett Favre to have the highest QB rating in the NFL at this point (107.5). But there it is, with 17 touchdown passes and just 3 interceptions, and he’s led the Vikings to an 8-1 record with visions of the promised land becoming clearer.

3. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—He’s slipped just a little in our rankings despite his team being 9-0. It seems like each week it’s becoming more and more of a struggle for Brees and his Saints’ teammates, but until someone beats them, there’s no real reason to discount the QB’s season.

4. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals—Unfortunately, Benson left last Sunday’s game in Pittsburgh with an injury, but there is no denying his value to this upstart Bengals’ squad so far.

5. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans—Sure, his team began the season with six straight losses. But suddenly, we have to give CJ props, because his team has now won three in a row, and he leads the league in rushing (1091 yards, 121 yards per game). He also has 30 catches for 262 yards and 9 total touchdowns. He’s a threat to score from any part of the field, any time.

Honorable Mention–Elvis Dumervil, Broncos; Adrian Peterson, Vikings; Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, Reggie Wayne, Colts; Jared Allen, Vikings

Bill Simmons on Bill Belichick’s ill-fated decision

John Paulsen — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:30:51 +0000

In his latest column, Simmons rails on those that defend Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th-and-2 against the Patriots Sunday night. First, he skewers the idea that it was statistically the right move. Then he questions the assumption that the Colts would have scored had the Pats punted. After that, he questions a few other justifications for Belichick’s decision. The whole thing is a good read, but here’s the meat of his conclusion…

Did it feel like the end of an era? Yeah, a little. The truth is, Belichick is 57 years old. I doubt he’s banking those famous 19-hour work days anymore. I doubt he possesses the same hunger that fueled him when he was trying to escape Bill Parcells’ shadow and make a name for himself. Everything is gravy for him at this point. His place in history is secure.

Career security can be damaging in one of two ways: either you stop taking chances, or you feel emboldened and start taking too many of them. Belichick’s recent history shows that he would rather roll the dice than do something conventionally. He made so many trades in the draft this past April that I can’t even remember where we ended up picking. Right before the season, with the Patriots picked by many as the clear Super Bowl favorite, he dealt one of his defensive pillars (Richard Seymour) to Oakland for a future first-round pick. On Sunday night, he went for the jugular in Indianapolis when the situation demanded prudence.

There is a time for statistics and a time for common sense. And on the road, up six, facing a 4th-and-2 on your own 28 yard-line? That’s a time for common sense.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

2009 NFL Week 11 Point Spreads & Odds

Anthony Stalter — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:21:30 +0000

Along with a complete list of point spreads for this weekend, here is a quick-hit look at some of the marquee matchups in Week 11 of the NFL.

Colts (9-0) at Ravens (5-4), 1:00PM ET
After earning a win Sunday night thanks in large part to Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 28-yard line, the Colts head to Baltimore to take on a Ravens team brimming with confidence after shutting out Cleveland (not like that’s hard to do) on Monday night. The Ravens’ offense hasn’t been as good over the past month as it was earlier in the season and they might have trouble moving the ball against a stout (although injury-plagued) Indy defense. Last time the Colts traveled to Baltimore was during the postseason three years ago when Indy eventually went on to win the Super Bowl. The Colts beat the Ravens 15-6 that day, but Peyton Manning was picked off twice and finished with just 170 yards and no touchdowns.

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton and Knowshon Moreno weren’t around last year when Denver coughed up the AFC West title to San Diego after taking a decent lead late in the season. But that has to be on the minds of the Broncos who did play in the Denver last season. The Broncos already went into San Diego and beat the Chargers earlier this season on Monday night, but that was before the Bolts’ defense started playing better and Philip Rivers wasn’t winning games on his own. Rivers has been outstanding over the past couple of weeks and the running game finally showed a pulse in last week’s win over the Eagles. The Chargers are playing with a ton of confidence right now, while the Broncos have lost three in a row. A loss this weekend and the Denver faithful will start thinking, “Here we go ago.”

Falcons (5-4) at Giants (5-4), 1:00PM ET
Something has to give between these two teams; the Falcons have lost three of their last four, while the Giants have lost four in a row. Atlanta will be at a major disadvantage without running back Michael Turner (high ankle sprain), plus New York is coming off its bye so it had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Both Matt Ryan and Eli Manning have struggled over the past month with poor decision-making, interceptions and inaccuracy. Both of these teams are desperate for a win to stay within the NFC Wild Card hunt.

Jets (4-5) at Patriots (6-3), 4:15PM ET
A lot has changed since Week 2 when the Jets upset the Patriots in East Rutherford: Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez isn’t playing with as much confidence as he had been and now there are cracks in Rex Ryan’s vaunted defense. Bill Belichick and the Pats are angry after giving a win away in Indianapolis last Sunday night and will certainly look to bury a New York team that was so boastful about wanting to beat the New England earlier in the season. This game could get ugly in a hurry.

NFL Week 11 Point Spreads & Odds:

Thursday, November 19
Dolphins +3 Over 42.5
Panthers –3 Under 42.5

Sunday, November 22
Browns +3.5 Over 38
Lions –3.5 Under 38

Bills +8.5 Over 42.5
Jaguars –8.5 Under 42.5

Steelers –10 Over 40
Chiefs +10 Under 40

Colts –1 Over 44.5
Ravens +1 Under 44.5

Falcons +6.5 Over 46.5
Giants –6.5 Under 46.5

49ers +6.5 Over 42
Packers –6.5 Under 42

Seahawks +11 Over 46
Vikings –11 Under 46

Redskins +11 Over 41
Cowboys –11 Under 41

Saints –11 Over 51
Buccaneers +11 Under 51

Cardinals –9 Over 46.5
Rams +9 Under 46.5

Jets +10.5 Over 45
Patriots –10 Under 45

Bengals –9.5 Over 36
Raiders +9.5 Under 36

Eagles –3 Over 45
Bears +3 Under 45

Monday, November 23
Titans +4.5 Over 48
Texas –4.5 Under 48

For expert picks and daily free picks, visit HSI Sports!

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Bill Belichick was right…

John Paulsen — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 21:28:54 +0000

…at least according to Gregg Easterbrook.

Indianapolis had only one timeout, so a first down would have all but won the game. On the night, the Patriots had averaged 6.6 yards per play, so the chance of gaining 2 yards was auspicious. As Tim Graham of ESPN.com has noted, since Tom Brady became New England’s starting quarterback, the Patriots have converted 76 percent of their fourth-and-short attempts. A 3-in-4 chance to win is a pretty inviting opportunity.

Which seems like a better gamble — 2 yards to win the game, or two minutes to shut down Peyton Manning when the Colts are hot? In 2007, AccuScore did thousands of computer simulations of the punt-or-go-for-it question for TMQ. One finding was that between your own 21-yard line and your own 35, you should go for it on fourth-and-2 or less. In test after test, doing this improved a team’s chance of victory — though, of course, there is no guarantee. No coach can control what happens on the field. Had New England punted, Indianapolis might have run the kick back for a touchdown, for instance. All the coach can do is make a decision that improves the team’s odds. Belichick made such a decision.

Two things to note:

1. While the Pats did average 6.6 yards per play on the night, they only averaged 2.8 yards per play in their final three possessions (not including Faulk’s 1-yard catch). The New England offense wasn’t as productive in the fourth quarter as it was during the first three.

2. While Brady may own a 76% success rate on fourth down, during those last three drives, just six of the preceding 16 plays (38%) went for more than two yards. That didn’t bode well for the Pats’ 4th-and-2.

I have no problem with computer simulations, but there is something about a 4th-and-whatever with the game on the line that can’t be quantified. Emotions are higher and everyone tightens up. It becomes tougher to execute. Officials are less likely to call a penalty, thinking that unless it’s obvious, players should decide the outcome (especially when the home crowd isn’t going to like your call).

Belichick’s reasoning is understandable. Tom Brady is his best player and he’d rather have the ball in his hands then punt it to Peyton Manning, who just made short work of his tired defense on the previous possession. Had Faulk caught the ball cleanly, we’d all be talking about how gutsy (and brilliant?) it was to go for the first down to win the game.

But it didn’t work out, and Belichick is left with egg on his face.

Belichick costs the Patriots a win over Colts

Anthony Stalter — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 05:34:44 +0000

Bill Belichick is a genius. In fact, he’s so much of a genius that he cost his team a win on Sunday night by making one of the dumbest decisions by a head coach in quite some time.

The Patriots absolutely dissected the Colts for 58 minutes tonight. Tom Brady threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns on 29-of-42 passing, while Randy Moss (nine catches, 179 yards, 2 TDs) and Wes Welker (nine catches, 94 yards) abused an injury-riddled, inexperienced secondary on their way to taking a 31-14 fourth quarter lead.

Then Peyton Manning worked his magic to cut Indy’s deficit to 34-28 with just over two minutes remaining. But all the Patriots had to do was pick up two first downs (something they had done with ease the entire night) on their ensuing possession and put the Colts away for good. Instead, Indy’s defense rose to the challenge and stopped the Pats on a 3rd and 2 from New England’s 28-yard line to force a punt.

Or what everyone thought would be a punt, that is.

Instead of punting and making Manning drive the length of the field, Belichick decided to call a time out (the second of the drive) and go for it on fourth down. What ensued was a 1-yard catch by Kevin Faulk, a controversial spot of the ball and a turnover on downs for New England. Four plays later, Manning found Reggie Wayne for a 1-yard touchdown pass to give the Colts a stunning 35-34 victory.

Now, I don’t fault Belichick for being who he is: An aggressive decision-maker and a coach that not only likes to beat his opponent, but rip their soul out of their bodies and do a tap dance number on it. That’s who he is and that’s what he does. He’s won multiple Super Bowls with that strategy and he’s not going to change his philosophy now.

But the problem with that strategy in this case is that it just wasn’t a smart football decision. Belichick has to punt the football and trust his defense in that situation by forcing Manning to drive the length of the field to win. There’s nothing wrong with being aggressive, but that was just a flat out stupid decision by a head coach that knows better.

Granted, if the Patriots picked up that first down and never gave the ball back to Manning, everyone would be lauding Belichick’s fearless style. I get that, and I don’t want to lose sight of that fact because the media can be two-faced in scenarios like these. And in Belichick’s defense, with the way his offense had been moving the ball all night, gaining a first down on 4th and 2 must have seemed like a lock and why give the ball back to Manning after he just carved up your defense the previous two drives?

But the Patriots didn’t pick up that first down and there was really no reason not to punt the football in that situation. It wasn’t like they were at midfield – they were at their own 28-yard line and if their gamble didn’t work, Belichick had to have known he was handing a win over to the Colts. Furthermore, for Belichick to burn two timeouts before making that decision and leaving himself without the option to stop the clock had his offense not picked up the first down was just as stupid.

I’ve never seen a team dominate like the Patriots did for 58 minutes, only to lose on a decision like that. New England will surely rebound and I wouldn’t doubt it if we saw these same two teams play in the AFC Championship Game in the same stadium. But nevertheless, this was an awful decision by Belichick and he cost his team tonight.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

NFL Week 9 COY Power Rankings

Mike Farley — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 13:00:45 +0000

Not much has changed in the Coach of the Year power rankings, because most of the coaches here won last weekend. Josh McDaniels is the only one who did not, and he’s in danger of falling into honorable mention.

1. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints—Eight and Zero. 303 points for, 174 against. That’s an average score of 38-21. The 2007 Patriots’ had an average score of 37-17, and this team is reminding folks of that one.

2. Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis Colts—Halfway through his rookie season as head coach, and Jim Caldwell hasn’t lost a game yet. Why isn’t anyone talking about this? Okay, so he inherited a pretty good team with an elite QB, but the Colts have had their share of injuries as well, and a coaching change.

3. Brad Childress, Minnesota Vikings—We’re holding his place for the bye week, and he’s got the Lions this Sunday. Safe to say Mr. Childress’ seat here will stay warm.

4. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals—Two wins against the Ravens, and Marvin’s boys are a stunning 4-0 in divisional play, including two wins against the Ravens. This weekend’s rematch with the Steelers will tell us a lot, but win or lose that one, Marvin has earned a place here.

5. Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos—Despite two straight losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh, the Broncos are still 6-2 when many thought they’d be 2-6 at this point.

Honorable mention: Bill Belichick, Patriots; Wade Phillips, Cowboys; Mike Tomlin, Steelers; Ken Whisenhunt, Cardinals

NFL Week 8 COY Power Rankings

Mike Farley — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 13:00:40 +0000

Leading the way here, are, not surprisingly, the two coaches who have unblemished records. But remember how the Giants started out 11-1 last year and then finished 12-5, including an early playoff exit? The Titans did something similar. So nothing is guaranteed, but these guys are sure off to good starts and deserve to top the list. The boy wonder in Denver, however, fell under scrutiny after losing to Baltimore, but if he bounces back against Pittsburgh, look out.

1. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints—The talk has begun on whether or not the Saints can run the table. Think about that for a minute. Did anyone see that coming at the start of the season?

2. Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis Colts—Everyone is saying to wait until the Colts play a real opponent, but still, you don’t get to 7-0 by being lucky. Still, should be interesting to see how that upcoming Sunday nighter against New England shakes out.

3. Brad Childress, Minnesota Vikings—Yeah, the Vikings are pretty good. And we’ll keep saying Childress looks like a genius for bringing back #4 until #4 proves us otherwise.

4. Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos—Finally a blemish on the Broncos’ record in Baltimore, but it was lopsided enough to start wondering about just how talented this upstart team is.

5. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals—A bye week keeps Marvin safe, but a rematch against Baltimore looms, and then a road game in Pittsburgh.

Honorable mention: Bill Belichick, Patriots; Gary Kubiak, Texans; Andy Reid, Eagles; Wade Phillips, Cowboys (well, he’s 5-2 and climbing back into contention!); Mike Tomlin, Steelers