In his latest column, Simmons rails on those that defend Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th-and-2 against the Patriots Sunday night. First, he skewers the idea that it was statistically the right move. Then he questions the assumption that the Colts would have scored had the Pats punted. After that, he questions a few other justifications for Belichick’s decision. The whole thing is a good read, but here’s the meat of his conclusion…

Did it feel like the end of an era? Yeah, a little. The truth is, Belichick is 57 years old. I doubt he’s banking those famous 19-hour work days anymore. I doubt he possesses the same hunger that fueled him when he was trying to escape Bill Parcells’ shadow and make a name for himself. Everything is gravy for him at this point. His place in history is secure.

Career security can be damaging in one of two ways: either you stop taking chances, or you feel emboldened and start taking too many of them. Belichick’s recent history shows that he would rather roll the dice than do something conventionally. He made so many trades in the draft this past April that I can’t even remember where we ended up picking. Right before the season, with the Patriots picked by many as the clear Super Bowl favorite, he dealt one of his defensive pillars (Richard Seymour) to Oakland for a future first-round pick. On Sunday night, he went for the jugular in Indianapolis when the situation demanded prudence.

There is a time for statistics and a time for common sense. And on the road, up six, facing a 4th-and-2 on your own 28 yard-line? That’s a time for common sense.

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…at least according to Gregg Easterbrook.

Indianapolis had only one timeout, so a first down would have all but won the game. On the night, the Patriots had averaged 6.6 yards per play, so the chance of gaining 2 yards was auspicious. As Tim Graham of ESPN.com has noted, since Tom Brady became New England’s starting quarterback, the Patriots have converted 76 percent of their fourth-and-short attempts. A 3-in-4 chance to win is a pretty inviting opportunity.

Which seems like a better gamble — 2 yards to win the game, or two minutes to shut down Peyton Manning when the Colts are hot? In 2007, AccuScore did thousands of computer simulations of the punt-or-go-for-it question for TMQ. One finding was that between your own 21-yard line and your own 35, you should go for it on fourth-and-2 or less. In test after test, doing this improved a team’s chance of victory — though, of course, there is no guarantee. No coach can control what happens on the field. Had New England punted, Indianapolis might have run the kick back for a touchdown, for instance. All the coach can do is make a decision that improves the team’s odds. Belichick made such a decision.

Two things to note:

1. While the Pats did average 6.6 yards per play on the night, they only averaged 2.8 yards per play in their final three possessions (not including Faulk’s 1-yard catch). The New England offense wasn’t as productive in the fourth quarter as it was during the first three.

2. While Brady may own a 76% success rate on fourth down, during those last three drives, just six of the preceding 16 plays (38%) went for more than two yards. That didn’t bode well for the Pats’ 4th-and-2.

I have no problem with computer simulations, but there is something about a 4th-and-whatever with the game on the line that can’t be quantified. Emotions are higher and everyone tightens up. It becomes tougher to execute. Officials are less likely to call a penalty, thinking that unless it’s obvious, players should decide the outcome (especially when the home crowd isn’t going to like your call).

Belichick’s reasoning is understandable. Tom Brady is his best player and he’d rather have the ball in his hands then punt it to Peyton Manning, who just made short work of his tired defense on the previous possession. Had Faulk caught the ball cleanly, we’d all be talking about how gutsy (and brilliant?) it was to go for the first down to win the game.

But it didn’t work out, and Belichick is left with egg on his face.

Not much has changed in the Coach of the Year power rankings, because most of the coaches here won last weekend. Josh McDaniels is the only one who did not, and he’s in danger of falling into honorable mention.

1. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints—Eight and Zero. 303 points for, 174 against. That’s an average score of 38-21. The 2007 Patriots’ had an average score of 37-17, and this team is reminding folks of that one.

2. Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis Colts—Halfway through his rookie season as head coach, and Jim Caldwell hasn’t lost a game yet. Why isn’t anyone talking about this? Okay, so he inherited a pretty good team with an elite QB, but the Colts have had their share of injuries as well, and a coaching change.

3. Brad Childress, Minnesota Vikings—We’re holding his place for the bye week, and he’s got the Lions this Sunday. Safe to say Mr. Childress’ seat here will stay warm.

4. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals—Two wins against the Ravens, and Marvin’s boys are a stunning 4-0 in divisional play, including two wins against the Ravens. This weekend’s rematch with the Steelers will tell us a lot, but win or lose that one, Marvin has earned a place here.

5. Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos—Despite two straight losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh, the Broncos are still 6-2 when many thought they’d be 2-6 at this point.

Honorable mention: Bill Belichick, Patriots; Wade Phillips, Cowboys; Mike Tomlin, Steelers; Ken Whisenhunt, Cardinals

Leading the way here, are, not surprisingly, the two coaches who have unblemished records. But remember how the Giants started out 11-1 last year and then finished 12-5, including an early playoff exit? The Titans did something similar. So nothing is guaranteed, but these guys are sure off to good starts and deserve to top the list. The boy wonder in Denver, however, fell under scrutiny after losing to Baltimore, but if he bounces back against Pittsburgh, look out.

1. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints—The talk has begun on whether or not the Saints can run the table. Think about that for a minute. Did anyone see that coming at the start of the season?

2. Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis Colts—Everyone is saying to wait until the Colts play a real opponent, but still, you don’t get to 7-0 by being lucky. Still, should be interesting to see how that upcoming Sunday nighter against New England shakes out.

3. Brad Childress, Minnesota Vikings—Yeah, the Vikings are pretty good. And we’ll keep saying Childress looks like a genius for bringing back #4 until #4 proves us otherwise.

4. Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos—Finally a blemish on the Broncos’ record in Baltimore, but it was lopsided enough to start wondering about just how talented this upstart team is.

5. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals—A bye week keeps Marvin safe, but a rematch against Baltimore looms, and then a road game in Pittsburgh.

Honorable mention: Bill Belichick, Patriots; Gary Kubiak, Texans; Andy Reid, Eagles; Wade Phillips, Cowboys (well, he’s 5-2 and climbing back into contention!); Mike Tomlin, Steelers

Sean Payton has climbed into the top spot this week after his team had a riveting come-from-behind win in Miami, and by come-from-behind we mean they were trailing 24-3 late in the second half and won the game 46-34. That means for the rest of the game, they score was 43-10 New Orleans. Just sick.

1. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints—Sorry Josh McDaniels, but while you were on bye Payton’s team had a remarkable comeback against the Dolphins on the road. They appear to be the 2007 Patriots, and for that we have to give the coach top props.

2. Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos—We know the Broncos upset the Cowboys and Patriots, but the next two weeks they face Baltimore and Pittsburgh. We’ll see if the boy wonder is still sitting pretty after that.

3. Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis Colts—The rookie coach is still waiting for his first loss. Good for him.

4. Brad Childress, Minnesota Vikings—Okay, so the Vikings are human. However, I think Childress’ investment will pay off this weekend in Green Bay.

5. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals—Regained confidence by thrashing the Bears and remained tied for first with the Steelers in the tough AFC North.

Honorable mention: Bill Belichick, Patriots; Mike Smith, Falcons; Gary Kubiak, Texans; Ken Whisenhunt, Cardinals

Okay, so we can finally separate Josh McDaniels and Marvin Lewis after the former beat San Diego to reach 6-0 and the latter lost a tough home game to Houston. Here is our current power rankings for NFL Coach of the Year:

1. Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos—Seriously, 6-0? The schedule keeps getting tougher, but it doesn’t seem to faze this team or their confident coach. Dude is a mini-Belichick, the first “offspring” to be worthy of that title.

2. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints—After beating the Giants to reach 5-0, we can start talking about the very real likelihood of the Saints reaching the Super Bowl for the first time, and this guy is a big reason why. It’s still amazing that he managed to pay his defensive coordinator a quarter mil of his own cash to lure him, but it seems to have been worth it.

3. Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis Colts—Just like his QB, you can’t fault Caldwell for the bye week.

4. Brad Childress, Minnesota Vikings—Now 6-0, there should be no question that Childress did himself and the city of Minnesota a huge favor bringing back #4. He sure wasn’t going to be 6-0 with Tarvaris Jackson, was he?

5. Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons—A tough win against the Bears, and this team is not fading any time soon. Really, the Falcons and Saints are two of the best teams in the NFC and it should be interesting when they meet.

Honorable mention: Tom Coughlin, Giants; Bill Belichick, Patriots; Marvin Lewis, Bengals

The general consensus surrounding the New England Patriots these days is that the sky is falling.

Tom Brady doesn’t look the same.

Bill Belichick can’t win without his coveted videotapes.

The entire defense is a mess.

It’s true – the Patriots are in trouble. Brady didn’t look comfortable last week as the Jets’ defense used multiple looks to confuse him at the line. He generally looked confused and befuddled as Rex Ryan sent extra defenders from all angles and for Brady to look confused and befuddled is a telltale sign that things aren’t right in New England’s world.

But doubting Brady and Belichick when their backs are against a wall is about as smart as taking anything Skip Bayless says to heart. It’s just not wise to write off the Pats, especially coming off a loss.

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Along with the odds and over/under totals, here’s a look at some of the marquee matchups for Week 3 in the NFL.

Falcons (2-0) at Patriots (1-1), Sunday, 1:00PM ET
This will be a great test to see where both of these teams currently lie. The Falcons are 2-0 with wins over two struggling 2008 playoff teams, while the Patriots could very easily be 0-2 right now. Behind quarterback Matt Ryan’s (108.5 QB Rating) great start, Atlanta’s offense is gearing up for big things this season, but the defense is giving up 5.1 YPC and just lost starting DT Peria Jerry for the year. New England has its own defensive problems without middle linebacker Jerod Mayo and Tom Brady still hasn’t looked comfortable on his surgically repaired knee. It would be unwise to doubt Bill Belichick and the Patriots, but the Falcons would go a long way in proving that they’re a legitimate Super Bowl contender with a win at Foxboro.
Odds: Patriots –4.

49ers (2-0) at Vikings (2-0), Sunday, 1:00PMET
Who would have thought that the only matchup this week featuring two 2-0 teams would be the 49ers at Vikings? San Francisco’s defense has been solid in the first two games, yielding less than 300 total yards per game and limiting opponents to only 13 PPG. But neither Arizona nor Seattle posed the rushing threat that Adrian Peterson and Minnesota will provide this Sunday. This will be a great test to see where Mike Singletary’s team is and whether or not the Niners are legitimate playoff contenders. Can Shaun Hill beat the Vikings through the air if/when the Williams Wall takes away Frank Gore?
Odds: Vikings –7.

Titans (0-2) at Jets (2-0), Sunday, 1:00PM ET
Panic hasn’t set in yet for Jeff Fisher and the Titans, although a loss this week in East Rutherford would make things unsettling in Tennessee. Jets’ rookie Mark Sanchez has looked more like a five-year pro than a quarterback with only two career starts under his belt, but will this be the week that he finally suffers some growing pains? Tennessee’s defense has a way of making opposing quarterbacks look bad, although that certainly wasn’t the case last week when Houston’s Matt Schaub threw a career high four touchdown passes against the Titans. If Fisher’s squad falls to 0-3, the Titans may never recover. On the flip side, if the Jets start 3-0 they’ll set themselves up for making a run at the AFC East crown.
Odds: Jets –2.5.

(2-0) Colts at Cardinals (1-1), Sunday, 8:20PM ET
If you like watching quick-tempo offenses, then the Sunday night game will be right up your alley. The Colts defeated the Dolphins on Monday might despite only running 35 plays, which means Peyton Manning and the rest of Indy’s offense is already in midseason form. The Cards bounced back from their opening week loss to the 49ers by pounding the Jaguars last Sunday thanks to Kurt Warner’s amazing 24-for-26 passing day. Watching Manning and Warner dissect the opposing defense is going to be one of the more intriguing things to watch in Week 3.
Odds: Cardinals -2.5.

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