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Five new playoff contenders for the 2010 MLB season

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 02 Apr 2010 19:00:19 +0000

While some enthusiasts will argue otherwise, there’s usually not a lot of change from one year to the next in baseball. Most pundits expect the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Angels, Cardinals, Twins, Dodgers and Rockies (all eight teams that made the playoffs in 2009) to be good again this year. MLB isn’t like the NFL where teams make unexpected playoff runs every year.

That said, that doesn’t mean there aren’t a couple of sleepers to watch out for in 2010. Below are five clubs that didn’t make the postseason last year that have the best odds (in my estimation) of making the playoffs this season.

1. Chicago White Sox
If you read the 2010 MLB season preview, you’re not surprised to see the White Sox at the top of this list. As long as Jake Peavy stays healthy, Chicago arguably has the best starting rotation one through five in the American League. (Boston fans may argue otherwise, but Boston fans can also shove off…just kidding…although not really.) But the key to the Chi Sox’s success this season lies in their offense. Yes, I’m banking on veterans Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, Mark Teahen, Paul Konerko and Mark Kotsay to have productive years and yes, that may be asking a lot. But Gordon Beckham looks like a star in the making and the addition of Juan Pierre gives the Sox a solid leadoff hitter. I’m well aware that Chicago could finish third in a three-team race in the AL Central, but their pitching is going to keep them competitive all season and I’m willing to bet that their offense won’t be as bad as many believe.

2. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have all the pieces in place to not only compete for the AL Wild Card, but also unseat the Angels in the AL West. Along with Felix Hernandez, the acquisition of Cliff Lee now gives Seattle the best 1-2 punch in the American League outside of Boston’s Josh Beckett and John Lackey. The problem is that the lineup lacks major punch. Chone Figgins and Ichiro give the M’s quality bats at the top of the order, but can this team score enough runs on a nightly basis? The club has been built on pitching and defense but if they want to make the postseason, the Mariners will have to prove that they can overcome a powerless lineup.

3. Atlanta Braves
Many people view the Braves as favorites to win the NL Wild Card this season – and for good reason. Their starting pitching looks awfully good, especially if Tim Hudson can rebound and Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson don’t regress in their development. But how successful the Braves are this year depends on their offense. Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus and Nate McLouth are the perfect complements to Martin Prado, Brian McCann, Yunel Escobar, Jason Heyward and Melky Cabrera. But Jones, Glaus and McClouth have to stay healthy or else this team is doomed and Heyward has to be productive as a rookie. Is it asking too much for guys like Jones, Glaus and Billy Wagner to rebound? Maybe. But you still have to like the Braves’ chances this year based on their pitching and Heyward’s potential.

4. Tampa Bay Rays
If I didn’t have such a wild hair up my ass about the White Sox’s chances this year and if they didn’t play in such a competitive division, then the Rays would have probably found themselves ranked second or third on this list. But I go back and forth with how I feel about them. One moment I’m ready to crown them AL Wild Card champs and the next I’m convinced they’ll finish no higher than third in the AL East. Their pitching scares me, although I’m well aware that David Price, James Shields, Matt Garza and Jeff Niemann have the ability to keep the Rays competitive all season. I just wish an ace would emerge from the group so I can sleep better at night. The offense is stacked with guys that can hit for average (Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria), power (Zobrist, Longoria, Carlos Pena) and speed (Crawford, Bartlett, B.J. Upton), but the key might be whether or not Upton can rebound. If he can and the starting rotation is consistent throughout the year, then I’m back to thinking the Rays are a serious Wild Card contender. If he can’t and the rotation is average, then this club has a ceiling on its success in 2010.

5. Chicago Cubs
Two years ago, the Cubs won 97 games – the second most in baseball behind the Angels and tied with the Rays. Then last year, they infected themselves with Milton Bradley, Geovanny Soto forgot how to play and injuries limited Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano. This year, the Bradley infection has cleared and Soto has vowed to rebound from his sophomore slump. If Ramirez and Soriano can stay healthy, they’ll team up with Derrek Lee to form the makings of a solid offense. The starting pitching is above average too, although Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly have to stay healthy and Carlos Silva can’t be the disaster he was last year. The Cubs have their flaws, but they also have the makings of a solid club and could sneak up on teams this season. They probably won’t unseat the Cardinals in the NL Central, but a NL Wild Card berth is certainly not out of the question.

The Next Five:

6. San Francisco Giants
7. Texas Rangers
8. New York Mets
9. Detroit Tigers
10. Arizona Diamondbacks

I wouldn’t be shocked if any of these five teams made the postseason in their respective leagues, but all five of them have major flaws that they’ll have to overcome. The Giants have great pitching, but GM Brian Sabean has ruined that great pitching by fielding a horrible offense outside of stud Pablo Sandoval. The Rangers have the opposite problem – they can hit, but their pitching is a question mark. The Mets have enough offense, but the organization is cursed (if you don’t believe in curses, have a couple of beers with a Mets fan and see if they can’t change your mind) and their pitching is a joke outside of Johan Santana. The Tigers have two MVP-caliber pieces in Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, but whether or not the front office is committed to winning is a question that won’t be answered until after the All-Star Break. The Diamondbacks have a promising offense, but it’s also inexperienced and Brandon Webb’s injury is obviously a major concern.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

2010 MLB Preview: AL East

Anthony Stalter — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 23:00:04 +0000

In order to help get you ready for the MLB season, we’re doing division-by-division rankings with quick overviews on how each club could fair in 2010. Next to each team, you’ll also find a corresponding number written in parenthesis, which indicates where we believe that club falls in a league-wide power ranking. Be sure to check back throughout the next two weeks leading up to the season, as we will be updating our content daily. Enjoy.

First up is the AL East.

1. New York Yankees (1)
If you think I would get cute in these rankings and suggest that some upstart team would derail the Yankees this season, then you sir, are sadly mistaken. I just don’t have the conjones to bet against them, especially after they added Curtis Granderson, Javier Vazquez and Nick Johnson to their already stacked roster. Sure they lost World Series MVP Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon, the latter of which loved to work the count and provided the Yanks with some pop over the last couple of seasons. But thanks to Granderson, Johnson, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Texeira, Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada, the lineup is still stacked from top to bottom. Vazquez, CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Mariano Rivera will once again highlight a strong pitching staff and assuming they don’t suffer any major injuries, there’s nothing to suggest that the Bombers won’t make another championship run. That said, let’s not be oblivious to the potential problems that could arise for the Yanks this season. Age is a factor, as is the fact that Granderson can’t hit lefties and will be under the spotlight as the club’s biggest offseason acquisition. Plus, for as good as Vazquez was over the past couple of years, he was a disaster the last time he wore pinstripes (Boston fans remember this well.) Should the Yankees win another World Series? Yeah – especially considering they have the best-purchased roster in baseball. But just like last year, they still have to prove it between the lines and they’re not immune to hurdles getting in their way.

2. Boston Red Sox (3)
Based on the moves they made this offseason, you either love the Red Sox’s chances this year or you’re willing to write them off like your favorite tax exemption. The club acquired ace John Lackey, outfielder Mike Cameron and infielders Marco Scutaro and Adrian Beltre last winter. Every player will be counted on to contribute this season, but they all come with question marks as well. When healthy, Lackey is virtually guaranteed to win 15-plus games and pitch over 200 innings. But he has to stay healthy. Cameron is a huge upgrade over Jason Bay in the outfield, but he won’t fill Bay’s shoes offensively. Scutaro is coming off a career year but the law of averages suggest that he’ll take a step back in 2010 and there’s no telling what Boston will get out of Beltre after he only appeared in 111 games last season due to an injury. Plus, will Big Papi carry over his production from June to September last year or will he struggle as he did at the start of 2009? That said, the BoSox are still stacked. Along with Lackey, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz give Boston the best pitching staff in the division and their bullpen is solid as well. Ortiz, Beltre, Cameron, Jacoby Ellsbury, J.D. Drew, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez comprise an offense that should help Boston win over 95 games this season and compete for a postseason berth. Their defense has also improved dramatically with the addition of Cameron and Ellsbury’s move from center to left. Do they have unanswered questions? Of course – all clubs do at this time of year. Will they overcome the Yankees? Maybe. Will they compete? Most definitely.

3. Tampa Bay Rays (7)
The Rays stumbled out of the gates last year, although they fought through injuries in order to finish with a respectable 84-78 record. But they didn’t make any moves this offseason, so it’s hard to figure out whether or not they’re going to compete for a postseason berth or finish with roughly the same record as they did in 2009. If BJ Upton stays healthy for an entire season and rebounds, then the Rays have more than enough offense in him, Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena and Ben Zobrist to compete. And if a No. 1 emerges out of David Price, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann or James Shields, then the Rays will compete. If, if, if, if. I want to believe that the Rays are the perfect team to unseat the Yankees and Red Sox (two teams that have had more than enough time at the top) in the division. But there’s no question that they’ll have to overachieve again like they did in 2008 in order to make the postseason. They have the talent, but they need an ace to emerge, Upton to be productive again and for Crawford (whose contract is up at the end of the year) to stay happy or else they’re destined for another third place finish.

4. Baltimore Orioles (22)
The O’s have several pieces that will get your heat pumping just like the time you stole that car and led the police on a two-hour joy ride down the interstate. Wait…what? Nick Markakis is already a fine ballplayer, Adam Jones showed his vast potential last year before getting hurt and Matt Wieters is already being described as the next Joe Mauer (only with more power). The club also improved in a couple of areas over the offseason, namely at third base with the acquisition of Miguel Tejada, at first base with Garrett Atkins and in their starting rotation with Kevin Millwood. But it’s hard to measure how good this club will be when they play in the AL East and their pitching still has the potential to be down right hideous again. It says a lot about a team’s starting staff when the team leader in ERA finished with a 5.04 mark (Jeremy Gutherie). Maybe Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta will surprise and overachieve this season, but chances are Baltimore will top out around 75-80 wins in 2010. They should be improved, but again, their division will keep them from competing for a postseason berth again this year.

5. Toronto Blue Jays (27)
Mom always said that if you don’t have anything nice to say then you shouldn’t say anything at all. But mom doesn’t have to complete this preview now does she? The Blue Jays traded away ace Roy Halladay in the offseason and while they may benefit from the deal down the road, they don’t have anyone to pick up the slack in 2010. They also lost one of their top offensive pieces from last year in Marco Scutaro and replaced him with Alex Gonzalez. That’s great news if you’re into defensive wizards that can’t hit over .250 on a consistent basis. The club does have a couple of nice/promising/okay/whatever pieces Vernon Wells, Ricky Romero, Brandon Marrow, Aaron Hill and Travis Snider, but the bottom line is that the Jays are in rebuilding mode and will wind up collecting dust all season in the basement of the AL East. They’re going to be horrible and there’s very little to like about their chances to succeed in 2010. Sorry, Mom.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Second Basemen

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 03:10:23 +0000

All 2010 Fantasy Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

Stop us if this scenario has ever played out during one of your drafts: You’re in the first round and Chase Utley comes off the board. With so many good players available at other positions, you don’t even blink an eye. But then Ian Kinsler is taken a few rounds later and then maybe even Brandon Phillips or Robinson Cano are selected and all of a sudden you start to feel the second basemen death grip on your shoulder.

“No problem,” you think to yourself. “I’ll just address other positions and figure out second base later. After all, what’s the difference now? The production will be roughly the same for anyone I draft from here out, so I might as well wait.”

The problem with that mindset is that you’re probably passing on players that are essentially locks for certain stats. Once those players come off the board, you run the risk of suffering through major bouts of inconsistency (think Dan Uggla) or unspectacular production (think Jose Lopez) at the second base position.

If you miss out on Utley or Kinsler, we recommend snagging one of these four second basemen and reaping the benefits of what should be locks for certain stats. These four might not give you the same production as Utley or Kinsler, but they’re safer bets to than ’09 heroes Aaron Hill and Ben Zobrist, who may not duplicate the success they had last year. We know they look like locks, but we value the four players below more.

(Side note: Depending on what stat you’re looking for, these four players might be interchangeable, so don’t get too hung up on where we have them ranked. They’re all solid options at second base.)

Brandon Phillips, Reds
Phillips has produced three straight 20/20 seasons and chances are, he’ll accomplish that feat again this year. If you’re hoping he’ll slug 30 home runs and steal 30 bases this season, you’re expectations are probably too high. But getting 20 dingers and 20 steals from your second baseman is nothing to scoff at. Phillips often gets overlooked because of his batting average, but at .275 he’s right around the league average – if not better. Plus, he should drive in 90-plus RBI again this year and score 80-plus runs. What else are you looking for out of your second baseman?

Robinson Cano, Yankees
What’s not to love about Cano? He hits for a high average, produces 20-plus home run power and hits in a stacked offense that plays in a wind tunnel disguised as a stadium. There’s a good chance that he’ll hit around .315 this season with 90 RBI, 100 runs and 25 home runs, which makes him extremely productive. The only problem we have with Cano is that he doesn’t steal enough bases, but he’s so good in other areas that it’s hard to hold that against him.

Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
Some of you may scoff at where we have Pedroia ranked, but keep in mind that Phillips is likely to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases, while Roberts is likely to steal 30 bases and hit 15 home runs. Pedroia, for as wonderful as his run production is, will probably top out at 15-16 long balls and 20 steals. That’s not a knock against him, because he’ll still score 110-plus runs and hit around .300, but is he more valuable than Phillips and Roberts? That’s debatable. Nevertheless, he’s a solid fantasy second basemen and if he some overzealous owner doesn’t take him too early then you’ll love his production across the board.

Brian Roberts, Orioles
Roberts had a bit of a down year in 2009, but at the end of the day he’ll hit roughly the same amount of home runs as Pedroia and steal 10 more bases. And while he won’t hit more home runs or wind up with a higher average than Cano, Roberts will score just as many runs and steal upwards of 20 more bases. There’s a lot of value in knowing exactly what you’re going to get from a player and Roberts offers that. Some owners might choose to pass on Roberts in order to take Hill or Zobrist later in their draft, but we still value what the Baltimore second baseman brings to the table in terms of consistency.

Below is our official ranking of second basemen. We recommend targeting one of the top six players before they come off the board, but there is plenty of value past Roberts as well.

1. Chase Utley, PHI
2. Ian Kinsler, TEX
3. Brandon Phillips, CIN
4. Robinson Cano, NYY
5. Dustin Pedroia, BOS
6. Brian Roberts, BAL
7. Aaron Hill, TOR
8. Ben Zobrist, TB
9. Dan Uggla, FLA
10. Jose Lopez, SEA
11. Ian Stewart, COL
12. Howie Kendrick, LAA
13. Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE
14. Gordon Beckham, CHW
14. Rickie Weeks, MIL
15. Clint Barmes, COL
17. Placido Polanco, PHI
18. Felipe Lopez, STL
19. Kelly Johnson, ARZ
20. Eric Young Jr., COL

SI.com’s MLB All-Star Team

Anthony Stalter — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 17:48:09 +0000

Tom Verducci of SI.com put together his MLB All-Star team, where he fills out his roster with players that deserve to go to the Midsummer Classic based on their production over the first half of the season and not just the popular ones, which seem to make the ASG on name recognition alone.

American League

First base: Kevin Youkilis*, Justin Morneau, Russell Branyan. By far the deepest, toughest position to call in baseball. What about Mark Teixeira, Carlos Pena and Miguel Cabrera? They deserve to go, but there is no room.

Second base: Aaron Hill*, Ben Zobrist, Ian Kinsler. Surprise! Combined previous All-Star selections for this trio: one. Hill, 27, and Zobrist, 28, already have set career highs in homers and Kinsler, 27, is just two behind his highwater mark.

Shortstop: Jason Bartlett*, Derek Jeter, Marco Scutaro. Bartlett, a career .276 hitter entering this year, was batting more than 100 points above his career average. Scutaro, the most patient hitter in the league, is having a breakout year at 33 and could join Alex Rodriguez and Cal Ripken Jr. as the only shortstops in the past 50 years to get 100 walks. And that Jeter guy is still pretty good.

Outfield: Jason Bay*, Torii Hunter*, Carl Crawford*, Adam Jones, Ichiro Suzuki. Hunter turns 34 next month and is having a career season, far outpacing his previous highs for on-base percentage and slugging.

Pitcher: Zack Greinke*, Roy Halladay, Kevin Millwood, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Cliff Lee, Jared Weaver, Edwin Jackson, Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, David Aardsma. Heavy on young starting pitchers, the AL staff is light on one ingredient: left-handed pitching. Lee is the only lefty.

National League

First base: Albert Pujols*, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez. A similar story to the AL logjam. Todd Helton, Ryan Howard and Lance Berkman all have good arguments for being All-Stars, but they can’t all go.

Second base: Chase Utley*, Freddy Sanchez, Orlando Hudson. Over the past four seasons Utley’s RBI totals, in no particular order, have been 102, 103, 104 and 105. This year? He’s on a pace for 113.

Third base: David Wright*, Pablo Sandoval, Mark Reynolds. It’s been a very weird season for Wright, who has hit just four home runs, including only one on the road, and seen his rate of strikeouts soar — all while leading the league in hitting (.339).

Outfield: Raul Ibanez*, Brad Hawpe*, Ryan Braun*, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Hunter Pence. Philly fans already love Ibanez, and why not? In late and close situations he’s hitting .415. (Special mention for the injured Carlos Beltran.)

Pitcher: Tim Lincecum*, Matt Cain, Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, Yovani Gallardo, Chad Billingsley, Javier Vazquez, Ryan Franklin, Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, Trevor Hoffman, Rafael Soriano. Only one starting pitcher older than 28. And you thought the AL was light on lefties? Not a single lefty on the staff here. Sorry, Johan Santana.

Glad to see that Zobrist, Scutaro, Hudson and Sandoval are getting some recognition from the national media, because all four have been fantastic for their clubs in the first half of the season.

It’s amazing to see the logjam at first base for both teams and to think that Gonzalez is third best at the position in the NL. I love the youth on both squads and the pitching for the NL is sick (and Santana didn’t even make Verducci’s team).

Too bad these two rosters won’t look like the official ones. It’s nice that fans have a vote in baseball, but most of them abuse the option by only penciling in players from their favorite teams. It completely defeats the purpose of giving fans a voice when it comes to selecting the ASG teams.

2009 MLB Preview: #6 Tampa Bay Rays

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 15:39:30 +0000

Click Here to see Previews of all 30 MLB Teams

Offseason Movement: The Rays hope the signing of OF/DH Pat Burrell will add a little more pop to their lineup, although it could sink their team batting average at the same time. The club also added a slew of pitchers including Lance Cormier, Jason Isringhausen, Joe Nelson and Brian Shouse, and acquired outfielder Matt Joyce from the Tigers in exchange for RHP Edwin Jackson.

Top Prospect: David Price, RHP
The Rays never seem to have a shortage of top prospects at their disposal and Price clearly tops a group that also includes RHP’s Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. Some believe Price is the best pitching prospect in baseball and he should have gotten the opportunity to prove that this year at the big league level. But the Rays optioned the talented youngster to Triple-A Durham recently for reasons unknown to Price and the rest of the baseball world. Tampa could be regretting the decision if the Yankees and/or Red Sox take early lead in the highly competitive AL East.

The Big Question: Will B.J. Upton be healthy?
The 24-year old Upton proved how vital he was to the Rays last year when he led the club in on base percentage, doubles and stolen bases. He also absolutely raked in the playoffs, clubbing seven home runs and helping Tampa set a new team record for steals in a single postseason (22). But in mid November, Upton underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and while he was recovering this spring, also suffered a bone bruise when he was hit on the hand by a pitch. He’ll likely miss Opening Day, but should be back sometime in mid April. Still, will the effects of either injury slow him down this season? Can the Rays get by with Ben Zobrist in center field until Upton recovers? If he misses significant time, the Rays could take a step back this year.

Outlook: After producing the single greatest season in club history, 2009 marks a vital year for the Rays. Why you ask? Because Tampa is now the model franchise, building their roster the way rosters should be built. They slowly developed prospects instead of signing big name free agents. They won with youth and are built for the long haul. And most importantly, they’re the anti-Yankees and Red Sox in every sense of the word. B.J. Upton’s injuries aside, the Rays should be better than they were a year ago. Upton, Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine have yet another year of experience under their belts and thus should lift the Rays right back into contender status. This club didn’t lose much in the offseason either, and even signed free agent Pat Burrell to give the middle of the lineup some added pop. But obviously things will be different this year. The Rays won’t sneak up on anybody and both the Yankees and Red Sox retooled in the offseason. New York and Boston have been consistently winning for years. It’s time for the Rays to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke and they don’t go the way of the ’08 Tigers and Indians.

Projection: 3rd AL East