Last year, it was easy to view the Cincinnati Bengals as a joke. They were a mess on the field and an embarrassment off it. Their star player couldn’t stay healthy, their running back was a castoff from Chicago, one of their star receivers couldn’t match his off-field antics with quality on-field production and their head coach had no idea how to hold everything together.

But it’s amazing how one offseason can change everything. Carson Palmer is healthy again and playing extremely well, Cedric Benson has revived his career, Chad Ochocinco is still a circus act (but a productive circus act), and Marvin Lewis’ name keeps coming up as a coach of the year candidate.

The Bengals beat the Steelers 18-12 on Sunday and they didn’t use smoke and mirrors to do it. They held Rashard Mendenhall to 36 yards on 13 carries by dominating the line of scrimmage and forcing Ben Roethlisberger to beat them through the air. But Big Ben couldn’t and Cincinnati put the clamps on Pittsburgh’s offense inside the red zone and made the Steelers settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

All in all, it was a complete effort by the best team in the AFC North. The Steelers and Ravens have often been highly regarded as the most physical teams in the division and the Bengals outplayed both of them not once, but twice this year. As long as Palmer and Benson (he left today’s game in the third quarter due to a hip injury) can stay healthy and the defense continues to play well, there’s no reason to think that the Bengals can’t make a deep run in the postseason.

The Bengals have finally figured out that chemistry can play a huge role in helping a team win. Gone are the days where the inmates run the asylum in Cincinnati; winning has a way of forcing players to shut up and fall in line.

Here are my top 5 picks for Week 9 against the spread. As usual, fade at will…

Steelers (5-2) at Broncos (6-1), 8:30PM ET, Monday
This game set up nicely for the Steelers, who have won four in a row, are coming off a bye and are playing a Denver team that was thumped last Sunday by the Ravens. But I fully expect Josh McDaniels and the Broncos to learn from their loss last week to Baltimore and rebound on Monday night. Denver is always a tough place to play – just ask the Cowboys and Patriots, whom the Broncos beat earlier this year at Invesco Field. I don’t expect Kyle Orton, Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno to have a lot of success against Pittsburgh’s excellent defense, but I do think Denver’s defense will force a couple turnovers to set the offense up in good field position. Linebacker Elvis Dumervil has been a beast this season and Ben Roethlisberger has always had trouble holding onto the ball. While some will start to doubt the Broncos after last week, I’m holding strong that this is a good football team and will prove it with a small upset Monday night.
Odds: Steelers –3.
Prediction: Broncos 20, Steelers 17.

Texans (5-3) at Colts (7-0), 1:00PM ET
This game has trap written all over it. The Texans have won three straight and four of their last five, while the Colts finally looked beatable last week in their 18-14 win over the 49ers. Your head and gut tell you that Houston will be able to hang with Indy this weekend and at the very least cover the 9-point spread, if not win outright. But don’t be fooled – the Colts are 9-1 in their last 10 games against the Colts and have covered in six of those 10 games. While the ATS trends aren’t impressive, Peyton Manning should have his way with an improving, but suspect Houston defense at home. With Bob Sanders sidelined again, the Texans should score, but it’s not like Indy isn’t used to not having Sanders on the field. This one will be a little bit of a shoot out, but I see the Colts winning by a decent margin in the end.
Odds: Colts –9.
Prediction: Colts 35, Texans 24.

Cardinals (4-3) at Bears (4-3), 1:00PM ET
There’s no doubt that Kurt Warner struggled last week in his five-interception performance. But keep in mind that Carolina does have the best pass defense in the league, so while the Cards’ loss to the Panthers was shocking, it’s not like they were attempting to throw the ball against air. Arizona has played much better on the road this season than it has at home, which is a stark contrast from last year. I like Warner and the Cards to rebound this week, even without receiver Anquan Boldin, who is likely out with an ankle injury. Chicago’s secondary has been inconsistent all season and if Warner isn’t gun shy after throwing five picks last week, then he should be able to test the Bears throwing vertically. On the other side, I see Arizona limiting Matt Forte and making Chicago’s offense one-dimensional, like many opponents have done this year. While the Bears have an advantage playing at home, I think they have false confidence after an unimpressive win last week against the Browns and if the Cards can get up early, they should win outright.
Odds: Bears –3.
Prediction: Cardinals 24, Bears 20.

Redskins (2-5) at Falcons (4-3), 1:00PM ET
The Falcons need Michael Turner’s 151-yard effort against the Saints to not be an aberration by the norm. Not that he has to rush for 150-plus yards a game, but if he can start churning out 100-plus yard efforts on a near-weekly basis that will make Atlanta’s offense more balanced and take some pressure off Matt Ryan, who has been struggling of late. The only thing the Redskins have going for themselves right now is that they had last week off. But they won’t have Chris Samuels and Chris Cooley on Sunday and their offense will once again struggle to generate points. The Falcons are coming off an emotional loss on a short week, but they desperately need a win and therefore won’t overlook a soft Washington team.
Odds: Falcons –10.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Redskins 16.

Packers (4-3) at Buccaneers (0-7), 1:00PM ET
If there’s one thing the Packers have done this year, it’s beaten bad teams. Three of their four wins have come against horrible teams and Green Bay has thumped every one of them. The Packers are far from perfect, but they’re going to light up a bad Tampa defense that supplies little to no pressure on the quarterback. The Bucs are also starting rookie Josh Freeman, who will be making the first start of his career. Expect plenty of three and outs, turnovers and sacks as the Packers roll.
Odds: Packers –9.5.
Prediction: Packers 30, Bucs 10.

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]]> http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/06/2009-nfl-week-9-picks-predictions/feed/ 3 http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/10/23/2009-nfl-week-7-picks-predictions/ http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/10/23/2009-nfl-week-7-picks-predictions/#comments Sat, 24 Oct 2009 00:00:40 +0000 Anthony Stalter http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=27396

Instead of limiting myself to only four games like I have the previous weeks, I’ve decided to channel my inner Peter King and make predictions (with smaller write ups) on every contest on the NFL schedule this week.

49ers at Texans, 1:00PM ET
It had to have been a long two weeks for San Francisco’s players after the Falcons drubbed the Niners 45-10 in Week 5. Mike Singletary will have his team more focused and I think we’ll see a great defensive effort from San Fran this Sunday to slow down a potent Houston offensive attack.
Odds: Texans –3.
Prediction: 49ers 20, Texans 17.

Packers at Browns, 1:00PM ET
This will be a closer game than most think. The Packers could be looking ahead to a home date with the Vikings next Sunday, although in the end Cleveland’s offense is putrid and while Green Bay has been inconsistent defensively this year, I think they’ll do enough to get the Pack a victory.
Odds: Packers –9.
Prediction: Packers 24, Browns 16.

Chargers at Chiefs, 1:00PM ET
Ron Rivera has no clue on how to get San Diego’s defense back on track, but the young, inexperienced Kansas City secondary could have issues slowing down Philip Rivers and the Bolts’ passing game. Still, I think Matt Cassel and company pull off a surprise upset at home against a San Diego team coming off a short week.
Odds: Chargers –5
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Chargers 18.

Colts at Rams, 1:00PM ET
The Rams have given a nice effort the past two weeks, but this is a horrible matchup for them – even at home. Peyton Manning and company is well rested and the Indy defense will harass Marc Bulger all game.
Odds: Colts –14
Prediction: Colts 34, Rams 14.

Vikings at Steelers, 1:00PM ET
Troy Polamalu was limited in practice this week, which isn’t a good sign for a Pittsburgh defense that desperately needs him in this matchup. The Vikings shouldn’t get away from their game plan because it’s working, although I think this is the first week they stumble. The Steelers haven’t looked impressive all season, but Ben Roethlisberger will connect on enough big plays to aid the Steelers in a tight victory.
Odds: Steelers –5.5.
Prediction: Steelers 28, Vikings 24.

Patriots at Buccaneers, 1:00PM ET
What a crappy game for the folks in London. The Buccaneers haven’t done much right this season and will face a Patriots team coming off a 59-0 effort against the Titans in Week 6. Tampa won’t have much of an answer for Tom Brady as New England rolls.
Odds: Patriots –15.
Prediction: Patriots 33, Buccaneers 10.

Jets at Raiders, 4:05PM ET
Oakland is coming off its best effort of the season in a win over the Eagles in Week 6, while the Jets are coming off their worst in a loss to the Bills. Mark Sanchez is struggling, but the Jets will put the game in the hands of their running backs to ease out a win. The Raiders will have a tough time scoring again this week.
Odds: Jets –6
Prediction: Jets 16, Raiders 7.

Bills at Panthers, 4:05PM ET
After wins over the Redskins and Bucs the past two weeks, the Panthers are playing with confidence and a win over the Bills would get them back in contention (at least for the moment). Fortunately for them, Buffalo continues to struggle offensively and has been brutal against the run. DeAngelo Williams could be in store for a breakout game this Sunday.
Odds: Panthers –7.
Prediction: Panthers 27, Bills 16.

Bears at Bengals, 4:15PM ET
The Bears can’t run the football right now, but they catch a break this week facing a Bengals team that won’t have defensive end Antwaan Odom, who is out for the season after suffering an injury last week. Jay Cutler should have plenty of time to throw and as long as he doesn’t turn the ball over (this game isn’t on Sunday night, so he shouldn’t), the Bears should pick up a big road victory.
Odds: Bengals –1.
Prediction: Bears 20, Bengals 17.

Falcons at Cowboys, 4:15PM ET
The Cowboys are well rested coming off their bye, but they face a Falcons team that is playing well defensively right now. John Abraham and company should drum up a good pass rush and force Tony Romo to make some mistakes. Atlanta has done an excellent job protecting Matt Ryan, who could have a big day zipping the ball around Jerry Jones’ new stadium.
Odds: Cowboys –4.
Prediction: Falcons 28, Cowboys 24.

Saints at Dolphins, 4:15PM ET
The Dolphins are winners of two straight and are coming off a bye, but they’ve had issues against quarterbacks that can get the ball out of their hands quickly and attack a defense vertically (see Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers). I don’t see Miami’s defense slowing down Drew Brees and the high-powered Saints’ offense. As long as New Orleans can stop the Dolphins’ ground attack, they’ll remain undefeated.
Odds: Saints –6.5
Prediction: Saints 27, Dolphins 20.

Cardinals at Giants, 8:20PM ET
I don’t like this matchup for the Cardinals, especially with a hobbled Anquan Boldin and the Giants’ coming off a loss. The G-Men will played inspired defensively after they were shredded last wee in New Orleans and should give Kurt Warner plenty of trouble, just as they did last year.
Odds: Giants –7.
Prediction: Giants 30, Cardinals 21.

Eagles at Redskins, 8:30PM ET
A week after suffering an embarrassing loss to Oakland, Philadelphia should rebound on Monday night against a Washington team that can do little offensively. I don’t see Sherman Lewis turning things around overnight for the Redskins and the Eagles won’t allow Donovan McNabb to be sacked six times this week.
Odds: Eagles –7.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Redskins 13.

Along with the complete list of odds, here are the four marquee matchups on the Week 7 schedule in the NFL.

Vikings (6-0) at Steelers (4-2), 1:00PM ET
Up to this point, nobody has been able to stop the combination of Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson. Defenses are loading the box in efforts to stop Peterson, and Favre is beating them with his pinpoint accuracy. The Vikings’ offensive line has also been outstanding, which obviously has played into how much success the team is currently having. But if there’s one defense that could shackle Minnesota’s offense, it’s Pittsburgh. Troy Polamalu is healthy again and the Steelers have been awfully tough to beat at home throughout the years. The Vikings gave up several big plays in the fourth quarter to the Ravens and Ben Roethlisberger has proven that he can make things happen in the vertical passing game. At 6-0, the Vikings are in good shape win or lose. But if they want to keep pace with the Saints for the top spot in the NFC, then they need to keep winning.
Odds: Steelers –4.

Bears (3-2) at Bengals (4-2), 4:15PM ET
Both of these teams are reeling after suffering defeats in Week 6. The Bears had several scoring opportunities last week against the Falcons and just never capitalized. Chicago is struggling to run the ball right now and is relying heavily on Jay Cutler and the passing game. The Bengals suffered more than just a loss last week, as defensive end Antwaan Odom suffered a season-ending injury. He was a difference maker on Cincinnati’s defense and without him, the Bengals might have trouble generating a pass rush. Both of these teams need a win right now to keep pace in their division.
Odds: Bengals –1.5.

Saints (5-0) at Dolphins (2-3), 4:15PM ET
The Dolphins have won their last two games and are fresh coming off the bye, but they’ve had issues with quarterbacks who can get the ball out of their hands quickly. They struggled to stop Peyton Manning and the Colts and Philip Rivers and the Chargers in previous weeks. The Saints are firing on all cylinders right now and won’t look past a Miami team playing with confidence under Chad Henne. Drew Brees could have another big day and as long as the Saints limit the effectiveness of Miami’s Wildcat, they should keep their undefeated record intact.
Odds: Saints –6.5.

Falcons (4-1) at Cowboys (3-2)
After the Patriots handed the Falcons their first loss in Week 3, Atlanta went into its bye hell-bent on fixing their defensive flaws. The past two weeks, the Falcons have held the 49ers to 10 points and the Bears to 14 points, respectively. They’ve also forced a combined six turnovers in those games and found a way to generate pressure. That’s not good news for Tony Romo, who has been turnover-prone at times this year and who hasn’t received the best protection from his O-line. This is a game Dallas needs to win in order to keep pace in the NFC East, especially with the Giants and Eagles both losing last week. Teams have done a great job bottling up Michael Turner, but have been unsuccessful stopping Matt Ryan. Will Wade Phillips and his defense be up to the challenge?
Odds: Cowboys –4.

2009 NFL Week 7 Odds:

Chargers –5 Over 44
Chiefs +5 Under 44

Colts –14 Over 45
Rams +14 Under 45

Bears +1.5 Over 42
Bengals –1 Under 42

Packers –7 Over 41.5
Browns +7 Under 41.5

Vikings +4 Over 45
Steelers –4 Under 45

Patriots –15 Over 45
Buccaneers +15 Under 45

49ers +3 Over 44
Texans –3 Under 44

Jets –6 Over 35
Raiders +6 Under 35

Bills +7 Over 37.5
Panthers –7 Under 37.5

Saints –6.5 Over 47
Dolphins +6.5 Under 47

Falcons +4 Over 47.5
Cowboys –4 Under 47.5

Cardinals +7 Over 46
Giants –7 Under 46

Eagles –7 Over 37.5
Redskins +7 Under 37.5

Check out a complete list of odds at Bullz-Eye.com.

Here’s how I see things 1-32 in the NFL now that the first six weeks of the season are in the books.

1. New Orleans Saints (5-0)
As of right now, I don’t see how any team in the NFC can walk into the Superdome and beat the Saints on their home turf. Drew Brees is the early-season MVP and Gregg Williams has transformed New Orleans’ defense overnight.

2. Indianapolis Colts (5-0)
Outside of maybe Miami, the Colts haven’t been tested by a formidable foe. But they’ve done what they’re supposed to do: Crush bad teams. They’ll crush another one this week in the Rams.

3. Minnesota Vikings (6-0)
The way the Ravens moved the ball at will on the Vikings’ defense in the fourth quarter on Sunday is troubling, but nobody can stop Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson right now…except maybe the Steelers, that is. Minnesota gets another huge test this weekend in Pittsburgh.

4. Denver Broncos (5-0)
I see an offensive growing under Josh McDaniels, which is a bad sign for future opponents. What a great special teams effort by Eddie Royal on Monday night.

5. New York Giants (5-1)
Sunday proved that the Giants have to get healthy on defense. They can get away with not having several defensive starters against teams like the Redskins, Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders, but the Saints made them look like a JV squad.

6. Atlanta Falcons (4-1)
The Falcons weren’t overly impressive on Sunday night, but their defense rose to the challenge. They forced two red zone turnovers, completely shut down the Bears’ running game and held Chicago to only 14 points. It looks like Mike Smith’s young defense is starting to come together.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
The Steelers played a sloppy game on Sunday, but Ben Roethlisberger continues to make plays vertically in the passing game and now that Troy Polamalu is healthy, Pittsburgh’s defense is almost back to form.

8. New England Patriots (4-2)
Sure, the Titans are a bad football team. But Tom Brady finally looked like Tom Brady again on Sunday and New England’s defense turned in its best effort of the season.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)
I think the Bengals’ loss to the Texans on Sunday will actually do them more good than bad. The players may have started to read their own press clippings and now Marvin Lewis can remind his team that they have a long way to go.

10. Chicago Bears (3-2)
The Bears missed so many opportunities to earn a victory Sunday night in Atlanta that I would need a calculator, a ruler, an abacus and a stiff drink to total all of them up. The offensive line better start gelling soon or else Chicago’s running game is going to be non-existent all season.

11. Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
The Ravens deserve props for battling back on Sunday after falling behind by double-digits. But the bottom line is that they’ve lost three in a row and their defense hasn’t played well in weeks.

12. Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)
The Eagles’ pathetic, inexcusable loss to the Raiders on Sunday proved how valuable left tackle Jason Peters is. After Peters left the game with an injury, Donovan McNabb spent more time on his back than on his feet.

13. San Francisco 49ers (3-2)
The Niners spent their bye week stewing over the 45-10 drubbing the Falcons gave them in Week 5. I shudder to think what their practices have been like this week under Mike Singletary.

14. Green Bay Packers (3-2)
The Packers better not overlook the Browns this Sunday in Cleveland with a home game against Favre and the Vikings coming up the following week.

15. Arizona Cardinals (3-2)
What an impressive win for Arizona against the Seahawks last week in Seattle. Are the Cards starting to find their rhythm offensively?

16. Houston Texans (3-3)
I want to believe in this team, but every time I move them up in the power rankings they lose the next week. Their offense can contend with anybody, but their defense falls asleep every other week.

17. Dallas Cowboys (3-2)
It’s time to see what the Cowboys are made of. They get the Falcons at home this week and are fully rested coming off their bye. A win and maybe we can start believing in this team again.

18. Miami Dolphins (2-3)
Chad Henne is 2-0 as a starter this year and got a full week to prepare for the Saints. A win over New Orleans at home and Miami will get right back into contention in the AFC East and give them confidence. Of course, beating the Saints is easier said than done.

19. New York Jets (3-3)
Now isn’t the time for Rex Ryan to be contemplating a quarterback change. He chose Mark Sanchez in the offseason and now he has to stand by him threw the ups and downs.

20. San Diego Chargers (2-4)
Ron Rivera has no idea how to fix the Chargers’ defense. They can’t generate any pressure and opposing quarterbacks are absolutely picking them apart.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3)
Yes, the Jags almost lost to the Rams at home last Sunday. But this isn’t a very good team, so they’ll take wins whenever they can get them.

22. Carolina Panthers (2-3)
Wins over the Redskins and Buccaneers don’t prove anything, but at least John Fox’s squad is building some momentum. That said, Jake Delhomme better start throwing to Steve Smith soon, or else the receiver will become a distraction. Smith rarely gets credit for it, but he’s one of the more underrated complainers in the league.

23. Seattle Seahawks (2-4)
Not what I expected from the Hawks after they drilled the Jaguars in Week 5. Against the Cards last Sunday, Seattle looked like the same befuddled, lifeless team they did when Seneca Wallace was under center.

24. Oakland Raiders (2-4)
Now why can’t the Raiders team that played last Sunday show up every week? They wouldn’t be a playoff contender, but they’d at least be competitive.

25. Buffalo Bills (2-4)
The Bills were handed a win last week in New York, but at least they showed that they have a pulse.

26. Detroit Lions (1-5)
Well, the Lions had been competitive up until this point. For all the Detroit fans that were lobbying for Daunte Culpepper to start over Matthew Stafford, how do you feel now?

27. Washington Redskins (2-4)
Stripping Jim Zorn of his playcalling duties won’t fix all of the Redskins’ offensive woes, but it certainly can’t hurt.

28. Cleveland Browns (1-5)
Josh Cribbs had more rushing yards (45) than Jerome Harrison (26) on Sunday. I know Cribbs is a fantastic player, but it’s never a good sign when one of your receivers out gains one of your running backs – Wildcat be damned.

29. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)
The Chiefs are closing in on their second win – I can feel it. And it could be this week against the Chargers.

30. Tennessee Titans (0-6)
Hey Jeff Fisher, your team has given up. I know the idea of starting Vince Young makes you want to throw up, but your squad needs a spark, my man. Give them one before this is your last season in Tennessee.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)
The Josh Freeman era is quickly approaching in Tampa.

32. St. Louis Rams (0-6)
The Rams showed some fight in Jacksonville last Sunday, but unfortunately the same, sad end result transpired.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are far from perfect, in fact, they might be the best imperfect team in the NFL, if that makes any sense. But as long as they have Ben Roethlisberger under center, they’re going to have a chance to win most on most Sundays.

The Steelers beat the Browns 27-14 on Sunday in a sloppy game that had little to no flow to it. Both teams combined for eight turnovers and Cleveland didn’t even total 200 yards of offense. Yet through all the muck, Big Ben was 23-of-35 for 417 yards and two touchdowns while helping Pittsburgh gain 543 yards of total offense.

Rothlisberger absolutely shredded the Browns’ secondary, connecting with Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller and Mike Wallace with regularity on plays that gained 25-yards or more. He also rushed six times for 11 yards and once again kept plays alive with his mobility in the pocket. I realize shredding a Browns secondary that is susceptible to giving up big plays isn’t a monumental event for a quarterback, but it’s hard not to appreciate how good Big Ben looked on Sunday.

Tom Brady and Petyon Manning are known for putting their teams on their shoulders and leading them to victory. He’s usually not brought up in the same discussion, but Roethlisberger is definitely on Brady and Manning’s level when it comes to that ability. Granted, he’s often aided by how good Pittsburgh’s defense is, but there’s no denying that he’s an exceptional quarterback. And more times than not, he covers up how flawed the Steelers truly are.

Okay, who played quarterback for the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Because it sure as hell wasn’t Daunte Culpepper.

In the Steelers’ 28-20 win over the Lions on Sunday, somebody resembling Culpepper (wearing Culpepper’s jersey) totaled 282 yards and one touchdown on 23-of-37 passing. Imposter Culpepper also rushed for 44 yards in the loss and actually kept the Lions in contention despite not having receiver Calvin Johnson, who suffered an injury and left the game.

Despite the surprising performance, Culpepper’s decision-making was as brutal as ever, which was evident in his second half interception. He was also sacked seven times and apparently bathed his hands in butter before the game because he fumbled three times. Still, he performed admirably against a tough Pittsburgh defense.

Looking at the stats, it’s amazing that the Steelers didn’t win this game by four touchdowns. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 277 yards and three touchdowns, while Rashard Mendenhall rushed for 5.1 YPC (despite only gaining 77 rushing yards). But Pittsburgh’s defense allowed Culpepper to keep the chains moving and couldn’t get off the field as Detroit converted 11 of its 18 third down attempts.

I wouldn’t say that the Steelers regressed after their convincing 38-28 win last Sunday night over the Chargers, but Mike Tomlin has to be somewhat disappointed that his team only compiled 82 yards on the ground against a suspect Detroit run defense. (Not to mention his defense allowed Daunte freaking Culpepper to keep this game close in the end.)