When the Pistons signed Ben Gordon, most reports pinned the contract at about $55 million over five seasons. But Chicago Now has the real numbers and they are a bit higher.

09-10 $10,000,000
10-11 $10,800,000
11-12 $11,600,000
12-13 $12,400,000
13-14 $13,200,000 (Player Option)
5 Years for $58,000,000.

He also has a clause for incentives which are considered unlikely (meaning he didn’t reach them last season), but I don’t specifically know what they are.

Ben Gordon came out ahead by taking the QO and was the first person to do so. Now, even looking at the 5/50 offer the Bulls made, Gordon was the clear winner by waiting even disregarding the circumstances that at the time of the 5/50 offer he was the best or second best player on a team expected to contend for a championship.

Gordon has a reputation for being a below average defender and he isn’t a playmaker. He’s a scorer, and sometimes he displays poor shot selection. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again — I’m surprised that the Pistons made an offer this strong, especially since it turns out that the Bulls never even made an offer to Gordon this summer. I think Detroit will come to regret this contract, but only time will tell.

The NBA offseason is by no means over, but the lion’s share is behind us, so it’s a good time to take a look back at a few of the…um…let’s say “questionable” decisions of the summer. Here are my Top 10, in no particular order. Feel free to add to the list if I missed something.

1. Trevor Ariza plays spiteful hardball…and loses.
Let’s get this straight — the Lakers offered Ariza the same deal he was getting on the open market, and he refused since the Lakers could have offered more, but didn’t? Um, okay. David Lee (the agent, not the Knicks forward) says that Ariza wanted to go somewhere where he’d be “appreciated.” Lee overestimated the market for his client, and the Lakers quickly moved on to acquire Ron Artest. Now instead of playing for the world champs, Ariza is stuck in Houston on a team that faces a very uncertain future. Lee now says that Ariza turned down a deal worth $9 million more, but still picked Houston. It sounds to me like he’s just trying to save face.

2. Grizzlies acquire Zach Randolph.
Once the Clippers traded for Randolph (and his toxic contract) last season, I thought the bar for NBA general managers had hit a new low thanks to Mike Dunleavy and his wily ways. But Dunleavy proved that he wasn’t the dumbest GM in the league when he convinced the Memphis Grizzlies to take on the final two years Randolph’s contract at the tune of $33.3 million. Remember that $25 million or so of cap space that the Grizzlies were going to have next summer? Yeah, that’s down to about $8 million with this brilliant move. Just when it looked like Chris Wallace was going to rehab his image after the Pau Gasol trade — Marc Gasol panning out, trading for O.J. Mayo — he goes and does this. Sigh.

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The Detroit Pistons have a ton of cap space heading into 2009 NBA free agency, and they apparently aren’t afraid to use it, agreeing in principle to contracts with Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.

Former Bulls guard Gordon will receive a five-year deal for between $55 million and $60 million, while former Bucks forward Villanueva gets a five-year deal for $40 million, sources told ESPN.com’s Chris Broussard.

Gordon rejected deals from Chicago in excess of $50 million each of the past two seasons. Milwaukee elected to let the 24-year-old Villanueva become an unrestricted free agent earlier this week, after the Bucks determined that matching any restricted free-agent offers would move the team closer to the luxury tax threshold and limit changing the roster.

It’s not surprising that the Pistons signed both of these players, but the value of the contracts seem a little high when taking the current economic climate into consideration. It seems like GM Joe Dumars is operating in a 2006 or 2007 mindset when the reality is that the demand for these players probably didn’t justify $11 million per season for Gordon and $8 millon per season for Villanueva.

There are only eight teams with significant cap space this summer — the Grizzlies, Pistons, Hawks, Thunder, Kings, Raptors, Blazers and Timberwolves — and Memphis, OKC and Minnesota weren’t expected to be big players this offseason. The Bulls were trying to re-sign Gordon, and they probably were in the same neighborhood of the two deals they offered over the last two years that averaged $10 million and $9 million per season, so Detroit may have felt they had to outbid Chicago to pry him away. But I just don’t think he’s worth it, given his defensive liabilities and his lack of size for an off guard.

As for Villanueva, he was intrigued with the possibility of playing with LeBron James and Shaquille O’Neal in Cleveland, but they could only offer him a mid-level deal, which would probably start at around $5.5 million per season. Even though his new contract’s $8 million per season average is the first thing to jump out, we need to focus on the first season. The contract could very well start at $6 million and go up $1 million per season for five years, which would add up to $40 million. They needed to outbid the mid-level deal to convince Villanueva to join a non-contender. Still, that’s a big commitment for a player who has a reputation for being a poor defender and has had his work ethic questioned at time. But at 24, Villanueva is still learning and is already a proven scorer.

This Gordon signing may indicate that Rip Hamilton will be moved before next February’s trade deadline. Though he’s getting older, he’s still a highly efficient scorer and he’d definitely be able to help a contender. I doubt that it’s Dumars’ plan to have $22 million locked up per season at one position. If Hamilton is moved, then the Pistons would be building around a lineup of Rodney Stuckey, Gordon, Tayshaun Prince and Villanueva.

Pistons, Blazers interested in Hedo Turkoglu.

The Oregonian reports Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard and assistant general manager Tom Penn called agent Lon Babby last night to begin the courtship of Hedo Turkoglu.

With Carlos Boozer out of the picture, an NBA source tells the Chicago Sun-Times that Turkoglu is now the Pistons’ first choice in free agency.

While the Blazers’ interest has long been rumored, Detroit’s interest is a little surprising. They already have a very good small forward on the roster in Tayshaun Prince, so unless they’re planning to play Turkoglu at the four, someone is going to lose some minutes. Of the two teams, the Pistons have more cap space, so if they want him, they can get him. (And what about Ben Gordon?)

Charlie V ahead of Turkoglu on the Pistons’ wishlist?

Chicago’s Ben Gordon remains the backcourt player deeply coveted by the Pistons, but the prospect of a Gordon-and-Villanueva combo likely would be slightly cheaper than trying to sign Gordon and Turkoglu with Detroit’s nearly $19 million in projected salary-cap space.

The Pistons may also be interested in Paul Millsap, but anytime a team signs a restricted free agent to an offer sheet, that money is tied up for a week while his current team decides to match. That makes signing an RFA a dicey prospect.

I wonder if the Bucks are regretting letting Villanueva given the amount of interest he’s generating from their division rivals (Detroit and Cleveland).

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Pistons not willing to pony up for Boozer?

The Pistons would love to sign Carlos Boozer should he decide today to opt out of the final year of his contract with the Jazz and become a free agent.

However, if Boozer opts out, he would leave $12.6 million on the table in Utah. Thus, there is a good chance Boozer, as has been widely speculated, would look to start his next contract at $14 million or $15 million.

If that is the case, the Pistons most likely would walk away.

Just because a guy asks for a contract starting at $14-$15 million doesn’t mean that the Pistons have to give it to him. If Boozer opts out, the Pistons are his most likely landing spot, so they set the market, not him. If he wants an unreasonable deal, they shouldn’t walk away, they should make an offer and give him some time to find a better one. Chances are that he won’t, and he’ll end up taking Detroit’s deal.

Assuming Boozer does not dramatically reduce his asking price, the Pistons would go after Bucks forward Charlie Villanueva.

Villanueva will turn 25 in August and is coming off his best season. He averaged 16.2 points and 6.7 rebounds for the Bucks.

The Pistons could conceivably sign Gordon and Villanueva and still have money left over to pursue re-signing Antonio McDyess.

I estimate Gordon’s value to be about $9 million, though he has turned down bigger offers from the Bulls in the past. Villanueva will probably get lots of MLE offers, so the Pistons would likely have to trump those to convince him to play in Detroit instead of Cleveland (or for another contender). So if Detroit signs both, expect them to pay at least $15.5-$16.0 million combined. That doesn’t leave a lot of space for McDyess.

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Once the draft is over, the next step of the NBA offseason is the free agency period. Negotiations start July 1, but players have to wait until July 8 to actually sign on the dotted line. Due to the economy, this promises to be an interesting summer, as more franchises seem to be trying to cut payroll than add talent. There are eight teams with significant cap space this summer, and there’s no guarantee that they’ll be willing to use it. Teams that are over the cap can add good players in two ways: 1) they can sign a player to the Mid-Level Exception (MLE), which will be around $5.8 million per season (and can be split up between two or more players), or 2) they can work out a sign-and-trade with the player’s old team.

Below is a list of the top unrestricted free agents this summer. These are players who can sign with whomever they like. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign.

1. Carlos Boozer, PF (27 years-old)
PER: 17.28
At press time, Boozer hasn’t officially opted out, but he is expected to. He can play another year for $12.3 million, but he thinks he’s due for a raise, and I don’t think he’s going to get the kind of raise he’s expecting. Boozer is one of the top 20 players in the league when healthy, but it’s that whole “when healthy” part that’s the problem. Over the past five seasons, he has missed a third of his team’s games. At 27, he’s in his prime, and assuming he has the right supporting cast, I think he can be one of a twosome or threesome on a championship-caliber team. Boozer may not get a raise this summer, but he could get long-term security. The Pistons, Raptors, Kings and Thunder all have the space to make a run at him, but Sacramento and OKC might consider themselves too far away from contending to add a big piece like Boozer. The Pistons seem like the best fit, but they are rumored to have more interest in Ben Gordon. There’s always the possibility that another team works out a sign-and-trade with Utah, but I don’t think anyone is going to give him a max deal, not in this economy.
Value: $12.0 – $13.0 million per year

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Not so, at least according to Chad Ford.

Over the past few months, we’ve assumed Carlos Boozer is their primary target, but that might not be the case. A league source told me Tuesday that the Pistons’ free-agent strategy likely would preclude a run at Boozer.

The Pistons want to add several players to the roster and want to keep salaries at or less than $10 million per year. With Boozer likely demanding a deal in the $15 million to $16 million a year range, his contract demands are out of their league. Add in concerns about Boozer’s injury history, and I don’t think the Pistons will make a play for him.

Instead, you can look for them to make a run at Ben Gordon, try to re-sign Antonio McDyess and find one or two other players they can sign for smaller salaries.

That stance in Detroit could put Boozer in a tough position. If he opts out of his contract with the Jazz, he’s going to struggle to find any team far enough under the cap to offer him what he wants. And with the Jazz interested in keeping Paul Millsap, Boozer could be out of luck in Utah, too.

Chad Ford contradicts himself in this piece. He says that the Pistons won’t be willing to pay Boozer’s asking price ($15-$16 million per season), but then says that the market won’t support what Boozer is asking for.

With $23 million in cap space, why can’t the Pistons sign both Boozer and Gordon? I bet Boozer ultimately signs for $12-$13 million per season, while I think Gordon will sign for something in the $8-$9 million range (which may be tough to swallow, since he turned down a contract worth $10 million per season from the Bulls).

Both players are flawed. Boozer is a great power forward, but he’s injury prone. Over the past five years he has only played in 67% of his team’s games. For that reason, he’s not worth a max contract, so I don’t expect him to get one this summer. Gordon is a great scorer, but his shot selection is suspect sometimes and he doesn’t have a reputation for being a good defender. Is he really worth $10-$11 million per season? I don’t think so.

If the Pistons play their cards right, they could sign both players (assuming they want both players) and then move Rip Hamilton to a contender looking for some good outside shooting.

In a smallish move yesterday, the Pistons agreed to trade Amir Johnson to the Bucks for Fabricio Oberto, who has a contract that is only partially guaranteed, potentially freeing up a little more cap space. Still, I don’t understand why the Pistons would give up on the 22 year-old Johnson when they clearly need to bolster their front line. If moving Johnson ultimately results in the signing of Boozer and Gordon, then it will have paid off.

The answer is yes, at least according to Sam Smith.

But I also heard that Gordon’s agent allegedly has been saying he has an $11 million promise from the Pistons.

First off, when a writer says that he “heard” that someone has “allegedly” been saying something, beware. But let’s assume for a moment that the report is accurate.

On the surface, the Pistons’ interest doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Why replace Rip Hamilton with Ben Gordon? Isn’t Hamilton better?

Gordon does have one thing on Rip — youth. He is 26, five years Hamilton’s junior. If Joe Dumars is planning to make a splash in free agency next summer, then he’s planning for a franchise resurgence in 2011, and Hamilton would be 33 at that point. If he signs Gordon, Dumars is just trying to make the Pistons younger.

Hamilton still has a lot of value right now. He’s a sharpshooter and a pretty good defender, and there are more than a few teams that could use him. This is pure speculation, but how about a Hamilton for Boozer swap with Utah? The Jazz already have Ronnie Brewer — would they even go for it? The Spurs, Rockets, Cavs, Wizards and Hornets might be interested as well (though New Orleans is trying to trim salary, not add it.)

Hamilton’s contract runs through the 2012-13 season but the final year isn’t fully guaranteed.

I prefer Hamilton right now. Gordon can make some impossible shots, but he sometimes shoots the Bulls out of games. He averaged 24.3 points against the Celtics in this year’s playoffs, but he only shot 39% from the field (and 29% over the last three games). He did shoot better than 45% from the field during the regular season, which is solid for a shooting guard. I think $11 million per season is too much to pay in this market; given his faults (shot selection, suspect defense), I’d estimate Gordon’s value to be around $8 million per season.

- Charlie Villanueva is open to joining the Cavs, and given the current state of the economy, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the best he’ll be able to do is a deal at the mid-level (~$5.8 million). The Bucks first have to decide whether or not to make the qualifying offer (~$4.6 million) and they may elect not to in order to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold (~$71 million, and could drop). Without Villanueva (and Ramon Sessions, who is also slated to become a restricted free agent), the Bucks’ payroll is at about $61 million with only eight players under contract. Villanueva would give the Cavs a good matchup for Rashard Lewis. Both players are slender power forwards who can shoot the ball, though Charlie V isn’t known for his defense.

- UFA Andre Miller doesn’t have a problem with the Sixers’ hire of head coach Eddie Jordan. The Sixers are over the cap but well under the luxury tax, so I’d expect them to sign the 33 year-old to a one- or two-year deal in the $6-7 million range. He is unlikely to get that on the open market, but Portland is a team with cap space that could use his leadership.

- Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo plans to keep Chris Bosh and try to surround him with better players, unless the talented power forward expresses serious doubts about re-signing. By sending Jermaine O’Neal to the Heat for Shawn Marion (and his expiring contract), the Raptors have about $10 million in cap space heading into the summer. While that may not be enough to land someone like Carlos Boozer, it is enough, coupled with the team’s mid-level exception, to add two or three pretty good players to the roster. How about Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva/Chris Andersen? I’d expect the Bosh rumors to heat up next season if Toronto struggles again early on.

- Hoopsworld says that there’s a rumor making the rounds that the Thunder might take DeMar DeRozan #3. This sounds a little fishy to me because everything I’m seeing shows DeRozan slipping a little after poor agility and sprint tests at the combine. James Harden has the better standing vertical and is just 1.5″ off of DeRozan’s max vertical. Harden also beat DeRozan soundly in the agility and sprint tests and is the much more polished offensive player at this point. DeRozan is 1.5″ taller, but Harden has a higher reach because he has a longer wingspan.

- With Jonny Flynn and Jrue Holiday climbing the draft charts, Ricky Rubio is suddenly open to interviews and workouts with teams picking #2 to #4, which includes Memphis, Oklahoma City and Sacramento. Rubio apparently didn’t play very well in his season finale, and his camp may be worried about him slipping out of the top four if those teams in question find a guy they like better.

The NBA free agency period starts July 1st, and as that date approaches I’ll preview this year’s free agent class in more detail. But for now, I’d like to take a look at which teams have the cap flexibility to be major players in free agency this summer. (Mind you, just because a team has cap space, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll use it. Just sayin’.)

Not familiar with the NBA salary cap? Here’s a quick primer…

1. The cap for the 2008-09 season was $58.7 million. The general consensus is that the cap will stay flat or decrease slightly. We’ll assume it sticks at $58.7 million.

2. If a team is over the cap, the only free agents they can sign are their own, unless they elect to sign a player to the mid-level exception (~$5.8 million per season), the bi-annual exception (~$2.0) or to a minimum contract. (The bi-annual exception may not be used in two consecutive years.)

3. If a team is under the cap, they can sign any free agent they want as long as they do not exceed the cap. They can also take on salary via trade up to the cap, so a team like the Grizzlies (with almost $20 million in cap space) could conceivably trade their first round pick to the Suns for Amare Stoudemire or to the Raptors for Chris Bosh.

Here’s a list of the bigger names in the free agent pool this summer:

Unrestricted: Carlos Boozer, Ben Gordon, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Hedo Turkoglu, Allen Iverson, Mehmet Okur, Rasheed Wallace, Mike Bibby, Anderson Varejao, Grant Hill, Kyle Korver, Trevor Ariza, Brandon Bass, Chris Andersen, Zaza Pachulia, Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden

Restricted: David Lee, Paul Millsap, Ray Felton, Josh Childress*, Marvin Williams, Glen Davis, Ramon Sessions, Charlie Villanueva, Nate Robinson, Leon Powe, Hakim Warrick, Linas Kleiza, Jarrett Jack and Shannon Brown

* It appears that if Childress does return to the NBA, the Hawks still hold his rights, so he would be a restricted free agent.

There are eight teams that project to have more than $5.8 million (the value of the mid-level exception) in cap space this summer:

Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Cap Space: $19.7 million
Memphis has been reluctant to spend for several years now and is probably one of the franchises that’s struggling the most in the current economy. I lived in Memphis for three years, and given its small size and overall lack of wealth, I always thought that it would struggle to support a professional sports team. With a core of Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about what they have at off guard, small forward and center. The big decision this summer is what to do with restricted free agent Hakim Warrick. When dealing with bad teams, numbers can be deceptive, because no matter what, somebody has to score and rebound, right? Warrick’s PER (16.91) is #24 amongst power forwards, so ideally he’d be coming off the bench for a playoff team. The Grizzlies projected cap space assumes they make the qualifying offer to Warrick ($3.0 million). Memphis is one of those teams that could really use the services of a Carlos Boozer, David Lee or Paul Millsap, but in this economy, are the Grizzlies willing to make that kind of a commitment? They could try to make a run at Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire next summer, but the odds are long that either guy would want to play for the Grizzlies.

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