You’ve got Jairus Byrd on defense and Percy Harvin on offense leading the charge here, with a few others who might be considered supporting cast at this point.

1. Jairus Byrd, Buffalo Bills—Byrd had another pick against the Titans to bring his league-leading total to 8. That was before Titans’ owner Bud Adams flipped the Bills a bird of his own. Sorry, I just couldn’t help it.

2. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings—Harvin may be the most exciting playmaker on the Vikings’ offense, and with you-know-who in the backfield, that’s saying something.

3. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles—6 catches for 76 yards and a score against the Chargers, and 72 return yards for good measure. This kid is special.

4. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos—He had 104 all-purpose yards against Albert Haynesworth’s Redskins last Sunday, albeit in a losing effort.

5. James Laurinaitis, St. Louis Rams—He just keeps making those tackles, now with 60 total (50 solo). Too bad he’s playing on a really bad team

Honorable mention: Hakeem Nicks, Giants; Johnny Knox, Bears; Ryan Succop, Chiefs; Michael Oher, Ravens; LeSean McCoy, Eagles; Beanie Wells, Cardinals

According to Philly.com, the Eagles are unlikely to rush Brian Westbrook back, even for a big game like Sunday’s tilt against the Giants.

From a fantasy perspective, Westbrook’s owners knew that he was going to miss a few games throughout the season, so they shouldn’t be surprised or angry about this news. LeSean McCoy is a capable backup, but it’s not like next week’s game against the Giants is a tasty matchup for either RB.

Desperate owners should look to Shonn Greene and/or Beanie Wells, who may be available. Greene is going to get most of Leon Washington’s touches and Wells is getting more and more work in the Arizona backfield. He’s a much better natural runner than Tim Hightower, though Hightower has more experience and better hands.

If Greene and Wells are gone, Mike Bell is another option. He is getting all of the Saints’ goal line work and has 27 carries in the last two games. He’s not going to post Westbrook-like numbers, but he should help fantasy owners get by. If Bell isn’t available, Justin Fargas ran really hard against the Jets and has a nice matchup against the Chargers in Week 8.

Most fantasy owners draft a running back in the first round and oftentimes their season depends on how that player fares. If he misses a few games with an injury and is bothered by it for a few more, his production will suffer and it will put his fantasy team in a tough spot. This can be offset if his owner is savvy enough to draft one of the “surprise” backs that inevitably crash the top 10 every season.

But how does one pluck one of these backs out of the middle rounds? Better yet, how can we avoid drafting an early round bust in the first place?

As a forewarning, this is not a tight article. I ponder, deliberate and meander as I go along. Trying to predict the future is nebulous at best and futile at worst, so please bear with me as I muddle my way through this topic.

Here’s a list of the top RBs from 2008…

RB1 – Matt Forte (RB30)
RB2 – DeAngelo Williams (RB36)
RB3 – Maurice Jones-Drew (RB13)
RB4 – Thomas Jones (RB23)
RB5 – Brian Westbrook (RB3)
RB6 – Michael Turner (RB19)
RB7 – Adrian Peterson (RB2)
RB8 – Steve Slaton (RB67)
RB9 – Chris Johnson (RB40)
RB10 – LaDainian Tomlinson (RB1)
RB11 – Clinton Portis (RB8)
RB12 – Marshawn Lynch (RB9)

Michael Turner went on average in the very late third round, so that makes six backs that were drafted outside the first two rounds that made the top 12. Maurice Jones-Drew was a fringe first round pick, so players that were drafted in the first round finished in the top 12 about 50% of the time. Marion Barber (drafted RB7, finished RB13) and Frank Gore (drafted RB6, finished RB14) just missed the top 12. There were three first round “busts” – Joseph Addai, Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee – who finished outside the top 35. All three missed significant time due to injury. The final first round pick, Steven Jackson, finished as RB19 even though he missed four games due to injury.

What does this all mean? Good question…

Of the first 12 picks, eight finished in the top 20, and seven finished in the top 15. While that success rate certainly wouldn’t qualify as a sure thing, it doesn’t dispel the notion that fantasy owners should look to draft a running back in the first round. It’s not like drafting a WR was any more rewarding last year. The top three receivers – Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne – finished 11th, 13th and 12th amongst wideouts, respectively. The top QB, Tom Brady, missed the entire season with an injury and the second QB off the board, Peyton Manning, finished as 2008’s QB6.

Looking at the four middle- to late-round picks that made the top 12, we can draw some common themes. Five of the six are/were young. Thomas Jones had eight years in the league entering the 2008 season. The next most experienced player was Michael Turner, who had four years in the league. Four of the six were newcomers to their respective teams, with three rookies and Turner, who joined the Falcons after four seasons with the Chargers. Three entered the season as members of a committee — Williams split time with Jonathan Stewart, Chris Johnson shared carries with LenDale White and Steve Slaton emerged as the last man standing in Houston.

Now let’s take a look at 2007…

RB1 – Brian Westbrook (RB8)
RB2 – LaDainian Tomlinson (RB1)
RB3 – Clinton Portis (RB16)
RB4 – Joseph Addai (RB6)
RB5 – Adrian Peterson (RB26)
RB6 – Jamal Lewis (RB27)
RB7 – Frank Gore (RB4)
RB8 – Marion Barber (RB24)
RB9 – Willis McGahee (RB13)
RB10 – Earnest Graham (RB??, undrafted)
RB11 – Maurice Jones-Drew (RB15)
RB12 – Reggie Bush (RB10)

There were four major surprises in the top 12 in 2007 – Peterson, Lewis, Barber and Graham. Peterson and Lewis were newcomers to their respective teams, while Barber and Graham each emerged from a RBBC as the main man. (Graham was actually the last man standing.) Portis was a semi-surprise, as he was coming off an injury-plagued 2006 and finished the season as RB3. The other seven top 12 players weren’t that surprising, as they were all picked in the top 15.

Seven of the top 12 picks in 2007 could be considered disappointments. Steven Jackson (drafted RB2, finished RB15), Willie Parker (drafted RB7, finished RB20) and Ronnie Brown (drafted RB12, finished RB23) were minor disappointments, while Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Rudi Johnson and Laurence Maroney all finished outside of the top 30. All four players missed significant time due to injury. LJ, Alexander and Johnson all had at least 622 carries during the previous two seasons.

WHAT TO MAKE OF ALL OF THIS

It’s difficult to predict who is going to bust because usually underperformance stems from some sort of injury. Some fantasy football analysts argue that a heavy workload in previous seasons will eventually cause a breakdown, but a large number of carries also indicates dependability and consistency, which is why these players are being drafted this early in the first place.

LaDainian Tomlinson is 30 and has averaged 332 carries over his eight years in the league. Even though he showed some signs of breaking down in 2008 (with a very pedestrian 3.8 ypc), he still gained 1536 yards from scrimmage and scored 12 TD, finishing the season as RB10. Would you pass on him late in the first round?

Steven Jackson is only 26, but he has missed eight games over the past two seasons after a stellar 2006 campaign. He should bounce back, but he’s also shown signs that he’s injury-prone. Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, Clinton Portis, Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber are all first- or second-round guys that are injury concerns for one reason or another. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to accurately predict which players are going to break down much less when.

So the best we can do is identify some possible surprises and hope they pan out, giving ourselves a safety net if one or more of our early picks have a disappointing season. We identified that youth, newcomer status, and starting the season in a RBBC were the top three factors of finding value in the middle to late rounds.

Right now, three names jump out at me: Derrick Ward (ADP: 5.03), Knowshon Moreno (4.10) and Chris Wells (6.01).

Ward was excellent when given the opportunity to start in place of an injured Brandon Jacobs in New York. He had 15+ carries eight times over the past two seasons, averaging 104 rushing yards in those games. He’s also a very adept pass catcher, averaging 2.8 catches per game over the last two years. Most importantly, he’s proven to be an efficient runner, averaging 4.8 ypc and 5.6 ypc in 2007 and 2008. He joins a semi-crowded backfield in Tampa that also includes Earnest Graham and Carnell Williams. But the Bucs gave Ward starter’s money, so he should have first crack at the job. His chances are further boosted by Williams’ knee injury and Graham’s ability to play fullback.

At first glance, Moreno looks to face something of an uphill battle to get carries in Denver. But these aren’t (or shouldn’t be) your father’s Broncos. Mike Shanahan is gone, and hopefully new coach Josh McDaniels didn’t inherit Skeletor’s joy of messing with his RB depth chart. Peyton Hillis, Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and Ryan Torain are also there, but Moreno is the most talented runner of the group. Here’s an excerpt from Moreno’s scouting report at FFToolbox…

Moreno is naturally blessed with a nice blend of size and speed, but it is his athleticism, vision, and ability to hit the hole that sets him apart as arguably the best running back in this year’s draft class.

Moreover, the Broncos were 2nd in the league in yards per carry with 4.8. This was with Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis and Selvin Young rushing the football. I expect Moreno will get starter’s carries and finish in the top 15, maybe even the top 10.

Lastly, Chris “Beanie” Wells joins Tim Hightower in the Arizona backfield. What’s worrisome about Wells is that the Cardinals have struggled with their ground game over the past several seasons. Last year, they averaged just 3.5 ypc, which was next to last in the league.

On the plus side, teams don’t usually burn a first round pick on a running back unless they plan to use him. Clearly, the Cardinals did not feel strongly enough about Hightower to use their first pick to shore up another weakness, and they must have seen something in Wells that they really liked. This kind of favoritism usually leads to opportunity, and that’s half the battle.

As the training camps wear on, we may be able to identify some of the other “surprise” prospects. Inevitably, a veteran will go down with an injury, or a rookie will make a splash. This might help us recognize who the next Earnest Graham or Chris Johnson will be.

Stay tuned.

In Mel Kiper’s latest mock draft, he has USC quarterback Mark Sanchez falling to the Redskins at No. 13.

5. Cleveland Browns (4-12)
Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: The stress fracture in his left foot shouldn’t affect his draft status. He’s a big-time player who should have a Larry Fitzgerald-type career in the NFL.

13. Washington Redskins (8-8)
Mark Sanchez, QB, USC: Sanchez definitely is one of the top five to eight players available in this draft, and getting him here would be a bit of a steal, because had he returned to USC for his senior season, he likely would have been the No. 1 overall pick.

14. New Orleans Saints (8-8)
Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State: Wells is a nice fit for the Saints after they let running back Deuce McAllister go in the offseason. He could be a perfect complement to Reggie Bush.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State: Freeman is an interesting prospect because he throws a great ball and has imposing size at nearly 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds. However, his inconsistent play puts him in the boom-or-bust category.

24. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State: Pettigrew remains the No. 1 tight end on the board and would be a help to young Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan.

It’s easy to disagree with someone’s mock just days before the draft, but the above are the projections I find the most fault in.

Cleveland: I had the Browns taking Crabtree in my second mock because I not only bought into the notion that they could select him after trading Braylon Edwards, but also because he would be the best player available at that spot and could fill the void when Edwards presumably leaves Cleveland as a free agent after the 2009 season. But the Browns just have too many other needs to fill and I can envision them waiting to take a receiver until the second or third round. Plus, rumor has it that Crabtree didn’t endear himself to the Cleveland staff in a recent visit and the Browns have all but crossed him off their draft board.

Washington: Unless Kiper believes that the Redskins will eventually trade up to get him, I don’t see Sanchez falling to No. 13. Seattle and Cleveland are major possibilities in the top 5 and if he falls, I could see a team (the Jets maybe?) trading up to snag him ahead of Washington.

New Orleans: The Saints aren’t going to take an offensive player with only one pick in the first three rounds. I have to believe that they’re going defense with their first pick, especially with Pierre Thomas ready for a more active role in their offense.

Tampa Bay: With Byron Leftwich, Luke McCown, Josh Johnson and Brian Griese already on the roster, I can’t see the Bucs taking a flier on Freeman, who is an incredibly raw prospect.

Atlanta: The majority of mock drafts on the web have the Falcons taking Pettigrew and I understand why – he fills a need and would give Matt Ryan a nice target in the passing game. But the tight end doesn’t play a significant role in Mike Mularkey’s offense and the Falcons have major holes on the defensive side of the ball, most notably at outside linebacker, defensive tackle, safety and defensive end. For as good of a prospect as Pettigrew could be, I just don’t see GM Thomas Dimitroff waiting a full round before addressing the defense.

According to the Dayton Daily News, the Bengals are believed to be high on Ohio State running back Chris “Beanie” Wells and could take him with the sixth overall pick.

One impact player ranked high on the team’s list is Ohio State running back Chris “Beanie” Wells. The Bengals have a need for a playmaker at the running back position behind starter Cedric Benson and Wells is scheduled to visit the organization in Cincinnati the first week of April.

Wells may have put himself back in the running as a potential Top 5 pick after an explosive performance at the school’s pro day on March 13, rebounding from a so-so showing at the Scouting Combine last month.

The 6-foot-1, 235-pound Wells was clocked as low as 4.34 and as high as 4.42 in the 40-yard dash. I’m told that he also fared well during position drills, grabbing the attention of all 32 team representatives in attendance.

The Seattle Seahawks with the No. 3 pick and Cleveland Browns at No. 5 have expressed interest in the running back. Other teams at top of the draft board expressing interest include Green Bay, Jacksonville, Denver and Cincinnati of course.

Wells worked out privately for the Broncos on Tuesday, March 17. According to a source with knowledge of the situation, the workout went extremely well.

Wells hasn’t showed any lingering affects from the injury he had early in the ’08 college season and he has absolutely blown away scouts in private workouts. He’s a big, strong back that can not only run effectively through the tackles, but also shows great speed in the open field.

Surprisingly, there hasn’t been a lot of talk surrounding Wells so far. One reason could be the amount of depth there is at the running back position in this year’s draft. Georgia’s Knowshon Moreno, Pittsburgh’s LeSean “Shady” McCoy, Connecticut’s Donald Brown, N.C. State’s Andre Brown and Iowa’s Shonn Greene are all talented prospects that teams could land in any of the top three rounds.

But out of that group, Wells still has the best combination of size, strength and speed. He shouldn’t be overlooked.

Multiple sources with knowledge of the players’ decisions said Moreno was definitely leaning toward entering the NFL draft, but said Stafford had wrestled with his decision for several days.

Stafford, a junior from Highland Park, Texas, might be the first player selected in the draft, according to Todd McShay, director of college football scouting for Scouts Inc. who also does NFL draft analysis for ESPN.

The strong-armed passer set a Georgia single-season record with 25 touchdown passes this year. He threw for 3,459 yards this season, the second-best total in school history, and ranked 15th nationally in pass efficiency.

Moreno, a sophomore from Bedford, N.J., ran for 1,338 yards and 16 touchdowns before the Bulldogs’ 24-12 win over Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl. He became the first Georgia player since 1982 Heisman Trophy winner Herschel Walker to run for more than 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons.

Stafford probably “wrestled with his decision” because he was at home in front of the mirror repeating, “With the first overall pick, the Detroit Lions select…Matthew Stafford, quarterback, Georgia…” over and over to himself. That’s enough to make a grown man question what he’s about to do.

I’m a little surprised about Moreno. I thought he’d stay for one more year and then be the top back coming out next year, but now he’ll compete with Beanie Wells as the top back selected.

With all due respect, we’d like to direct the jury to disregard the statements of Texas coach Mack Brown, who proclaimed after Monday night’s Fiesta Bowl that, “We’re obviously one of the best teams in the country, if not the best.”

If we’re to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, the Longhorns aren’t worthy of national-title consideration. They were gutsy and entertaining in a 24-21 victory over Ohio State, but by week’s end Florida or Oklahoma will prove it’s more deserving.

We direct your attention to People’s Exhibit 1, mainly Texas’ inability to find the end zone until the third quarter. In a college football postseason that has become, yawn, absurdly diluted, Texas’ quest for title respect was the most interesting story line of the night.

Until the Longhorns scored their game-winning touchdown with 16 seconds left, it was Mr. Sweater Vest himself, Ohio State coach Jim Tressel, who gave the game its spice. The guy might be more sock hop than hip-hop, more L.L. Bean than LL Cool J, but he added some oomph with the way he showcased his freshman quarterback.

In a game that squared off a team that had a lot at stake against one that didn’t, Texas needed a blowout to sway opinion. It will have to live with the reality that the Bowl Championship Series got it right.

Hey, it happens.

“I wasn’t sure before tonight . . . but I’m going to vote Texas No. 1,” Brown said.

Brown is loyal. He’s just not right.

You knew if Texas didn’t blow out Ohio State that we would see 50 of these articles hit the net by Tuesday morning. No offense to the Longhorns or the Buckeyes because they played an entertaining second half, but the game didn’t matter. None of the college football games matter expect for the national championship game and even that doesn’t matter. Without a playoff, there’s no fair way to judge which team is the best in the nation so I refuse to partake in the, “Texas deserves to be No. 1/Texas doesn’t deserve to be No.1” discussions. Sorry.