Well, go figure. I change the name of this column to “Fade Material” and then I start handing out winning picks. If I knew that was all I had to do, I would have changed the title years ago and avoided all the years of .500 or below predictions.

After a 3-1 performance in Week 1, I finished 3-0-1 with my Week 2 picks. Georgia was a push against South Carolina but TCU, Alabama and BYU had no problems covering. I’m still looking for my first sweep of the season, so let’s see if we can’t nail it this week. (Although I admit to having reservations about “Road Test Weekend.” There are some tough games on the board…)

Auburn @ Clemson, 12:00PM ET
Everyone keeps waiting for Auburn to lose and all they’ve done the past two weeks is pull wins out of their backsides. The No. 19 Tigers find themselves once again as underdogs, this time against an unranked Clemson team. Nobody can ever quite figure out Clemson, which either plays the game of its life or sinks to the level of its competition. They’re 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 versus the SEC, while Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Auburn is also 6-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last four games an underdog. I think the Tigers of Auburn keeps this within a field goal, making that 3.5-point spread highly attractive.
THE PICK: AUBURN TIGERS +3.5

Ohio State @ Miami, 7:30PM ET
The Buckeyes face their first road test under new head coach Luke Fickell and while they didn’t look particularly sharp against Toledo last week at home, I like OSU to win outright tonight. They’ll face a quarterback in Jacory Harris, who is coming off a one-game suspension and who was unimpressive against Oho State last year. He threw four interceptions, including three in the first half alone. Granted, that was a different Buckeyes team last season but the defense is still solid and I expect them to give Harris trouble again this time around. The Buckeyes are 11-3 against the number in all games over the last two seasons and 14-4 ATS in road games in September since 1992.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +2.5

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Almost a year ago we decided to try to quantify the stature of college football programs so that we could rank them against one another. (Click here for the 2010 Rankings.) Then our football guru, Anthony Stalter, wrote a little bit about each program and the direction that it’s headed.

Here’s how the total points are determined — 20 points for a national championship, 10 for a BCS title game loss, seven for a BCS bowl win, five for a BCS bowl loss, five for a BCS conference championship, three for a mid-major conference championship, two for a BCS conference runner-up and one for a major bowl appearance (i.e. a bowl that has a recent payout of more than $2 million, so for 2011 that would be Capital One, Outback, Chick-fil-A, Cotton, Gator, Insight, Holiday, Champs Sports and Alamo.) You’ll see the total points in parenthesis after the team’s name.

We put some thought into the point values for each accomplishment, paying special attention to how the point values are relative to one another. For example, we figured that one national championship would equate to four BCS conference championships, or three BCS bowl wins. We only looked at the last five years, as college football has increasingly become a fluid and fickle sport, and that’s about how far back a recruit will go when deciding amongst a list of schools.

Lastly, since a program is so dependent on the guy in charge, we added or subtracted points if the program saw an upgrade or downgrade at the head coach position in the last five years. A max of 10 points would be granted (or docked) based on the level of upgrade or downgrade. Again, we tried to quantify the hire relative to the program’s other accomplishments. For example, hiring Nick Saban is probably worth two BCS bowl appearances, or 10 points. (Sure, he might lead Alabama to more, but he also might bolt for another job in a year or two.)

So, without further ado, here are the rankings. Every year we’ll go through and update the numbers based on what the program did that year (while throwing out the oldest year of data), so don’t fret if your team isn’t quite where you want them right now. Everyone has a chance to move up.

1. Ohio State (58)

Previous Rank: #2 (+1)
Some college football fans will take issue with the Buckeyes being No. 1 because of their “soft schedule.” But this is a team that has dominated its conference five of the past six years and has finished no worse than second in each of the past six seasons. They’ve also appeared in two title games (though they lost both) and nine straight BCS bowl games, winning the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl in the past two years. They’ve got an interesting season coming up though. Five of their players including quarterback Terrelle Pryor, running back Dan Herron and receiver DeVier Posey will miss the first five games next year after being suspended. Can the Buckeyes stay unscathed until those players return?

2. Florida (51)

Previous Rank: #1 (-1)
If it weren’t for Urban Meyer leaving the program (and their lousy 2010 season), the Gators would probably still be ranked No. 1. They have three conference championships and two national championships in two years, but the lose of Meyer hurts big-time in these rankings. But don’t fret Florida fans, if Will Muschamp gets the program back on the right track then the Gators won’t be at No. 2 for long.

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Here are five quick-hit thoughts about Auburn’s wild 22-19 win over Oregon in the 2011 BCS National Championship Game.

1. In the end, it was a freshman and not a Heisman winner who won it for Auburn.
Cam Newton played a great game. He completed 20-of-34 pass attempts for 265 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while also rushing for 65 yards on 22 carries. But he didn’t put together one of those special performances that Auburn fans were accustomed to seeing all year. His fourth quarter fumble set up LaMichael James’ touchdown run and Darron Thomas’ wild 2-point conversion pass to Jeff Maehl, which tied the game at 19-19 with 2:33 remaining. But in the end, Michael Dyer’s “controversial” 37-yard run set the Tigers up for Wes Byrum’s 19-yard game-winning field goal. I put “controversial” in quotation marks because it wasn’t really controversial, per se. He definitely wasn’t down and the refs never blew the whistle, but I’ve seen officials stop plays when a player’s forward momentum was less stopped than that. Still, credit Dyer for having the wherewithal to keep his knees off the ground when he was being tackled and the Auburn sideline for instinctively telling him to keep running when they saw he wasn’t down. The Tigers’ Heisman-winning quarterback played well but Dyer and Auburn’s defense were the main reasons the Tigers won their second national championship in school history. Seeing as how Dyer is only a freshman, Auburn’s backfield is set for the next couple of seasons.

2. Ted Roof defensive game plan was tremendous.
Roof will certainly sleep easy tonight. He had six weeks to figure out how to slow down Oregon’s explosive offense and that’s exactly what he did. This was an offense that led the nation in points per game (47.5) and was fifth in rushing yards per contest (290.1). Yet the Tigers held the Ducks to 19 points and 81 total rushing yards. That’s amazing. For weeks pundits debated whether or not Auburn’s defense would rise to the challenge and yet Roof’s squad made it look easy for most of the game. Even when the Ducks scored late to tie it at 19-all, Auburn didn’t make it easy for them around the goal line. And that drive was set up when Casey Matthews punched the ball out of Newton’s hands to give Oregon the ball at the 40-yard line, so Roof’s squad was put in a bad spot. What an incredible effort.

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2011 BCS Bowl Previews: BCS National Championship | Fiesta Bowl | Rose Bowl | Orange Bowl | Sugar Bowl

Date: Monday, January 10, 2011
Time: 8:30PM ET
TV: ESPN

Why Watch: You mean, besides the fact that it’s the biggest college football game of the year and that the NCAA will get to crown a mythical national champion? With the way both of these offenses can light up a scoreboard, fans should get the shootout they expect. This matchup features two of the nation’s best players in Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton and Heisman finalist LaMichael James. If the game comes down to defense, Oregon ranks 14th in the nation in scoring and Auburn is 54th. But as teams like South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss and Georgia found out this season, Newton often saves his best for the fourth quarter. This should be quite a game and one that lives up to its hype.

Game Facts: The Tigers are 20-13-2 overall in bowl games, which ranks them as one of the best programs in the nation when it comes to postseason play. They rank 16th in all-time bowl appearances with 35, are 13th all-time in bowl wins at 20, and are tied for 22nd in all-time bowl win percentage at .600. They’ve won three straight bowl games and six out of their last seven, which includes a wild 38-35 win over Northwestern in last year’s Outback Bowl. During Mike Bellotti’s tenure as head coach between 1995 and 2008, the Ducks went to bowl games every year except the ’96 and ’04 seasons. In 2010, Oregon fell to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, which dropped them to 1-4 all-time in Rose bowl appearances.

Key Player: Craig Stevens, Auburn.
We know that Nick Fairley can get the job done in the middle, and that Auburn can be very tough to run on because of his stout play. But Oregon attacks you on the edges and Stevens, an outside linebacker, will play a huge role in trying to stop the Ducks’ potent offense. If he can keep contain, Oregon might be in for a long day. But if he can’t, LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner will spend a lot of time running through the Auburn secondary.

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SPORTSbyBROOKS has news that will make many Auburn Tiger fans spit up their Cheerios this morning.

All indications are that Heisman winner Cam Newton will be eligible to play Oregon in the BCS National Championship Game in two weeks. But there have been reports that indicate that some Tigers could be facing academic issues for the game.

But just when Auburn fans thought they could relax, a cryptic comment by head coach Gene Chizik last week indicated the barn door on eligibility issues for the Tigers hasn’t swung shut just yet.

The MONTGOMERY ADVERTISER reported last week:

Chizik said Auburn is “still getting some things cleared up academically” and isn’t yet sure if all players are in good academic standing.

Jay Coulter at the Auburn website Track ‘Em Tigers reiterated the lingering concern today in a blog entry:

There’s still no word on whether Auburn had any academic casualties that could cause some players to miss the championship game. Auburn coach Gene Chizik has been mum on the subject for the past month. You can bet the rumor mill will be in overdrive this week if Chizik doesn’t address the issue. Keep your fingers crossed…

It’s not fair to speculate at this point which players may be ineligible because none of them may be. If you read between Chizik’s comments it certainly seems that he could be without some of his players, but maybe he’s misleading the media. Or maybe the issues will be cleared up by January 10th (whatever that means).

Of course, if Auburn is without Newton then it changes the entire landscape of the game. But as of right now, Tiger fans seemingly have nothing to worry about.

Cam Newton can now add AP Player of the Year to his list of accomplishments in 2010.

From ESPN.com:

The Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback led the Tigers into the Tostitos BCS National Championship Game against No. 2 Oregon with a mix of flair and poise and enough highlight-reel plays to widely split the vote among a handful of coaches and teammates asked for their favorite.

Newton received 51 votes from the 60-member AP football poll panel. Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore received three, Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck got two, and four ballots went unreturned.

Scandal or no scandal, Cam Newton is one hell of a football player and turned in quite a performance this season. Football is the ultimate team game but if Auburn goes on to win the national championship, it’ll be because of Newton. He’s one of those rare players that can completely take over a game on his own. Watching him battle with Oregon in a couple of weeks will be incredibly fun to watch.

Perhaps the most amazing thing about Newton is that he kind of came out of nowhere. Auburn fans knew he was special but he wasn’t really on anyone’s radar in preseason and he certainly wasn’t being considered as a Heisman candidate at the start of the year. Yet he won the prestigious honor running away and then scooped up the AP Player of the Year award in a landslide. Amazing.

Cam Newton recently told ESPN that Auburn was “best for Cam Newton” and that’s why he chose to play there and not Mississippi State. Not because his dad shopped around his services to the highest bidder.

“I had no dealings with nobody at Mississippi State during the time that I came to Auburn,” Newton said. “But Mississippi State knows it was between Mississippi State and Auburn. And if you’ve been following this, there’s no secret. But I felt that, as a whole, Auburn possessed what’s best for Cam Newton, and that’s why I decided to come here on my decision.”

He said telling Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen — who had been an assistant at Florida when Newton went there two years prior — he would be going to Auburn was difficult. ESPN reported Nov. 9 that Newton had told a Mississippi State recruiter that his father had chosen Auburn because “the money was too much.

“I’m not here to talk about any reports,” Newton said.

“I called Coach Mullen. I told him what I had in my heart at the time. I talked to him and his wife, Miss Megan, and we had an excellent conversation. They wished me the best, and I wished them the best.”

Uh, huh.

Newton may be telling the truth but a couple of things don’t add up here. First of all, did he tell a Mississippi State recruiter that his father had chosen Auburn because of the money or not? If he didn’t and he has nothing to hide, why not deny the report? Instead, he skirts the issue by saying he’s “not here to talk about any reports.”

Granted, maybe somebody instructed him to say anything but I thought honesty was always the best policy? If you have nothing to hide, then scream it from the rooftops until somebody listens.

The other thing that doesn’t add up is why he chose Auburn over Mississippi State. It’s not like Auburn was a powerhouse program before he got there and he already had a relationship with Bulldogs’ coach Dan Mullen. So why Auburn? Was it money perhaps?

Anthony Stalter is having a hard time believing that Cecil Newton didn’t ask Mississippi State for cash and when they didn’t deliver, he turned around and got something from Auburn instead. That’s just one outsider’s opinion, but it’s not difficult to connect the dots. The sad part is that Cam is now caught up in something from which he may or may not have benefited. Anthony Stalter is not suggesting he’s innocent, but it sure sounds as though Cecil was the catalyst for this entire situation.

And shame on him (Cecil, not Anthony Stalter) if he was.

Even before the BCS crunched all of its mythical numbers to come up with a mythical matchup for a mythical national championship, oddsmakers had already made Auburn a 2.5-point favorite over Oregon in the national title game.

The line has since gone up to Tigers –3, while the over/under total is currently sitting at 74.5. After beating South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game, Auburn held onto its No. 1 spot in the BCS rankings, while Oregon stayed at No. 2 following its 17-point beating of Oregon State in the Civil War.

Oregon finished with a 12-0 record and covered in seven of those games with one push (vs. Washington). But they failed to cover in two of their last three games, which were against Cal (15-13), Arizona (48-29) and Oregon State (37-20).

Auburn finished 13-0 and covered in nine of those games, including six of their last seven. They crushed the Gamecocks 56-17 as a 4-point favorite and also rallied to beat Alabama 28-27 as a 4.5-point underdog despite falling behind 24-0 in the second quarter.

Odds have yet to be released for the Rose Bowl (TCU vs. Wisconsin), Fiesta Bowl (Connecticut vs. Oklahoma), Orange Bowl (Virginia Tech vs. Stanford) and Sugar Bowl (Arkansas vs. Ohio State), but when they do I’ll update this post.

It’s what we expected coming into today, and really what we’ve kind of expected for the better part of the last two months: Auburn and Oregon will play for the national title.

Both won comfortably, as Oregon beat Oregon State 37-20 in the Civil War, and Auburn dominated South Carolina 56-17 in the SEC Championship Game. Like it had been for most of the season, it was too easy for both teams.

As it was last year, TCU is the odd team out, but I doubt many people outside of Fort Worth, Texas are all that upset about that. Even I, an ardent opponent of the BCS, believe that the two best teams in the country are about to meet each other on the field.

So what can we look forward to in this matchup? I think the obvious answer is offense. Cam Newton should be the only person invited to next week’s Heisman Trophy ceremony — perhaps they should invite Colt McCoy, too, so he can make it four years in a row of coming up short in New York — and he’ll be on the same field in January with Darron Thomas, LaMichael James and company. The over/under could literally be in the 70s.

Just from looking through Twitter, it seems as the early line will be Oregon -3, or something in that vicinity. I don’t know about that. If I had to make a pick right now, I’d say Auburn wins this one by a touchdown. I have a month to change that, however.

As for the other BCS bowls, we’ll find those out tomorrow. The only one we really know, almost certainly for sure, is TCU vs. Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. That matchup, plus the title game is a good start. Let’s hope the rest of the games are as intriguing.

One of my favorite writers, Andy Staples, made a very good point on Friday: Unless there are major upsets today, it will go down as a day that none of us remember. Sure, Oregon fans will likely remember the day the Ducks beat Oregon State to get into the national title game. And Auburn fans probably will remember when they won the SEC title. But other than that, most of us will look back at this day like, “meh.”

Now, if Oregon State or South Carolina do the unthinkable, things might change.

We might forget, at least for a weekend, that Miami has hired and fired and hired and accepted the resignation — all according to Twitter — of Jon Gruden.

The fact that Cam Newton’s dad solicited funds for his son without his son knowing might slip our minds, at least for a day.

Everyone might stop making fun of Rich Rodriguez for blaring Josh Groban at the Michigan football banquet at the end of an emotional plea for his job that is making most Michigan fans cringe.

Some upsets today would make us forget a lot of that. So what I’m saying is the only person rooting harder for those upsets than the people in Fort Worth, Texas is Rich Rodriguez. Seriously, dude. Josh Groban is even dogging you for liking his song. Read the rest of this entry »