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2009 NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:11:27 +0000

Here are my locks (locks, ha!) for Week 11 in the NFL:

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is questionable this week with an ankle injury, which means Chris Simms could make his first start of the season. Simms looked Brady Quinn-like bad in a loss to the Redskins last week and I wouldn’t expect much out of him if I were a Broncos fan. If Simms starts, I fully expect the Chargers to load up to stop Knowshon Moreno and force the former Bucs’ QB to beat them through the air. It’s not going to happen and even if Orton does start, how effective can he be on a bum ankle? About as effective as he was last year for the Bears on a bum ankle? The Chargers are hot, have revenge on their minds and are eyeing sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Plus, Philip Rivers is playing just as well as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. I’m taking the Chargers to win outright and to cover.
Odds: Chargers –2.5.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 16.

Redskins (3-6) at Cowboys (6-3), 1:00PM ET
Now that the Cowboys have once again established that they’re still the same inconsistent team under Wade Phillips as they’ve always been, I’m wondering if the Redskins can pull off a huge upset this week in Dallas. Then again, without the brutal play of Chris Simms’ aiding them in victory, I can’t see Washington winning this weekend. In fact, I see this game being a blow out since the Redskins will once again be without running back Clinton Portis and Albert Haynesworth is doubtful to play as well. The Redskins have shown the ability to stop the pass, but if the Cowboys can control this game with Marion Barber and Felix Jones then Washington doesn’t stand a chance. Dallas’ offense should rebound from its horrid performance last week as long as the ground attack can help set things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Washington just doesn’t have the players to compete with Dallas for four quarters and given how bad the Redskins’ O-line has played this season, they’re going to have trouble stopping the Cowboys’ solid pass rush.
Odds: Cowboys –11
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 13.

Falcons (5-4) at Giants (5-4), 1:00PM ET
I would love to predict a victory for my Falcons this Sunday in East Rutherford, but I just don’t see it happening. Michael Turner is out with a high ankle sprain, Matt Ryan is in the midst of a complete funk and the defense can’t stop the run. Throw in the fact that the Giants are at home and should be well rested coming off the bye and I see trouble for Atlanta. Ryan and backups Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood are certainly capable of leading the Falcons to victory this weekend and the road team has won the past seven games in this series. But “Matty Ice” just hasn’t looked like the same player as he did earlier in the year and if he can’t cut down on the turnovers than the Giants will prevail. Since both of these teams are desperate for a win, I envision a tight game throughout. But all the intangibles are in the G-Men’s favor and I see them ending their four-game skid.
Odds: Giants –6.5.
Prediction: Giants 20, Falcons 16.

Eagles (5-4) at Bears (4-5), 8:20PM ET
Looking at both of these teams’ records, one might suggest that they’re both on the same level as one another. But nothing could be further from the truth. Outside of Lance Briggs and the struggling Jay Cutler, the Bears simply don’t have the talent to match up with the other contenders in the NFC Wild Card race – including the Eagles. Matt Forte is a good, young running back but he’s useless thanks to an inept offensive line filled with veterans whose better days are behind them (Orlando Pace, Olin Kreutz), fringe starters (Frank Omiyale, Josh Beekman, Kevin Shaffer) and one underachieving youngster (Chris Williams). The Eagles may be struggling at the moment, but they’ve got better overall talent than the Bears and I think they’ll prove that this Sunday night at Solider Field. Cutler has been brutal in night games (not that necessarily means anything) and continues to think that he has to do everything on his own (which means a lot). If Chicago can’t run the ball (they haven’t all year) then Philadelphia should soundly beat them on their own turf.
Odds: Eagles –2.5.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Bears 10.

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Biggest injury concern: Orton, Turner, Brown or Benson?

Anthony Stalter — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 23:15:57 +0000

Last week, several teams’ playoff hopes took major hits as key players all left their respective games due to various injuries.

The Broncos (Kyle Orton), Falcons (Michael Turner), Dolphins (Ronnie Brown) and Bengals (Cedric Benson) seem to be bitten he hardest by the injury bug but which injury should concern their respective teams the most? Let’s break down all four situations.

Broncos: Without Orton, Denver stands little chance of beating the Chargers at home this Sunday and even less of a chance of winning the AFC West. Orton isn’t Peyton Manning, but he might as well be the Broncos’ version of the star Colts’ QB because Chris Simms proved last week that he isn’t capable of keeping Denver afloat if Orton misses significant time. Now maybe with more preparation Simms will be better, but chances are the Broncos’ hopes of making the playoffs will fall flat with him under center. Orton says that he will play this weekend, even though he has torn ligaments in his left ankle. He admitted last year that he shouldn’t have tried to grit out a right ankle injury when he was playing for the Bears, so there’s a chance that he’s about to make the same mistake twice. This Sunday will be a good indication of how severe Orton’s injury really is.

Falcons: After getting off to a slow start, Turner was back in 2008 form the past couple weeks and even compiled 111 yards on only nine carries against the Panthers last Sunday before suffering a high ankle sprain. Usually those types of injuries take months to heel, but the Falcons don’t seem concerned about Turner missing more than a couple of weeks. The problem is that the Falcons are in the midst of a Wild Card chase in the NFC and they need their bruising back on the field – especially as Matt Ryan continues to struggle in his second year. Atlanta has capable backups in Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood, but the latter can’t stay healthy and the former doesn’t have much experience. If Ryan can step up and prove he can lead the Falcons through the air, then Turner can rest up and be ready in time for a late-season run. If Ryan falters again like he has been, then Turner might feel the need to rush back from his injury sooner than he (or the team) intends.

Dolphins: Miami had to end Brown’s season after he injured his foot in a win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. Ricky Williams has been superb this season, but Brown is the key to the Dolphins’ Wildcat success and he instills a toughness that can’t be matched by Williams alone. If Pat White can step up and help run the Wildcat, then Miami will keep its slim playoff hopes alive. But they need to win tonight in Carolina or else they’ll likely fall to far behind in a tight conference.

Bengals: Cincinnati is probably the best off because Benson’s hip injury doesn’t seem as serious as the alignments bothering Orton, Turner and Brown. He has been ruled out against the Raiders this week, but I imagine if the game had playoff implications that Benson would be on the field. With a solid two-game lead (tie-breaker included) over Pittsburgh in the AFC North, Cincinnati can afford to rest Benson this week and still beat a bad Oakland team this Sunday. Hopefully he’ll recover quickly and if he doesn’t, Cincinnati has capable backups in Bernard Scott and the recently signed Larry Johnson to help fill the void until Benson is healthy again.

Of these injuries, I would say Orton and Turner’s are of biggest concern given how they can affect the Broncos and Falcons’ playoff hopes. Losing Brown hurts, but even with him on the field the Dolphins’ postseason chances are slim at best and Benson should be back in a week or two for Cincinnati.

If Orton can play on the injured ankle and not suffer any setbacks, then Denver should be okay. But if they have to rely on Simms for longer than a game or two, they’re toast.

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Turner has high ankle sprain; Ryan, Norwood and Snelling must step up

Anthony Stalter — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:15:49 +0000

Jay Glazer of FOXSports.com reports that Michael Turner has been diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, although the Falcons are apparently “very optimistic” that the injury won’t keep their star back out too long.

High ankle sprains can sideline players for as little as 2-3 weeks or as long as six months depending on the severity of the injury. In Turner’s case, it sounds like he’ll only be out a couple of weeks but who knows at this point. The Falcons will be fighting for a playoff spot the rest of the season, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Turner came back earlier than expected.

Atlanta has two capable backs in Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling, although the former can never stay healthy. Norwood has battled concussions and a hip injury for much of the season and hasn’t spent a lot of time on the field.

When healthy, Norwood is a lighting rod and a threat to score every time he gets his hands on the ball, while Snelling looked good on Sunday in the team’s loss to the Panthers. He’s kind of a poor man’s Turner in that he’s a load to bring down, but he has surprising quickness and is a good receiver out of the backfield.

The Falcons could certainly do worse than a combination of Snelling and Norwood – much worse. But the problem is that if Norwood can’t stay healthy, Snelling isn’t the same back as Turner is. He’s more than serviceable, but he’s never been counted on to carry the full load, so Norwood has to recover quickly or else the Falcons’ season could slip away in a hurry.

Of course, Matt Ryan could also help the situation by playing much better than he has. When Turner was struggling at the beginning of the season and the Falcons’ running game was non-existent, Ryan carried the team. But he hasn’t played well in over a month and his performance in Carolina yesterday might have been an indication that he has regressed as a passer. All of a sudden, Ryan has turned into an inaccurate quarterback that makes poor decisions and often bails out of plays (which are all things he never did as a rookie).

If Turner is out for an extended period of time, the Falcons need all three players – Norwood, Snelling and Ryan – to step up and produce or else a second half collapse is imminent. Their defense is young and improving, but it can’t carry Atlanta to a postseason berth on its own. (Especially considering how bad the Panthers tore them up yesterday.)

It’s time for Ryan, Norwood and Snelling to step up.

Let’s put Snelling’s performance on Sunday into perspective. Before he left the game, Turner had run for 111 yards on nine carries for a 12.3 ypc. Snelling took over and rushed for 61 yards on 18 carries (3.4 ypc) and a TD. This was against the league’s 25th-ranked rush defense. Snelling is no Michael Turner, but if Jerious Norwood remains sidelined, he’s a guy capable of filling in for a few weeks, both for the Falcons and for your fantasy team. The good news is that he’s a decent receiver (3-32), an area of the game in which Turner does not excel (or isn’t given the opportunity to excel). Other options at RB are LeSean McCoy, Ladell Betts, Justin Forsett and Sammy Morris. Be sure to check back for our Waiver Wire Watch tomorrow morning for rankings of these potential fantasy free agents.

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Matt Ryan is officially in a sophomore slump

Anthony Stalter — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 23:10:12 +0000

For anyone that has actually devoted some time watching Matt Ryan over the past month, it’s hard to argue that he doesn’t look like a completely different quarterback than he did last year – or even at the start of this season. He bails out of plays, he overthrows receivers and he looks frightened in the pocket.

It appears that the dreaded sophomore slump has officially sacked “Matty Ice.”

During the Falcons’ 28-19 loss to the Panthers on Sunday, Ryan looked uncomfortable for most of the first half. He threw a horrible interception just before halftime that led to a Carolina touchdown, which put Atlanta behind 21-10. Then late in the game with the Falcons needing a field goal to take the lead, he again was picked off after he forced a pass downfield to a double-covered Michael Jenkins.

In both cases, Ryan not only made poor throws, but poor decisions – something that didn’t plague him last season.

Of course, Ryan had nothing to do with Jason Elam missing a chip shot field goal one possession before the critical interception. Had Elam made the field goal, the Falcons would have had the opportunity to stop Carolina and eek out a much-needed division win. Instead, Elam shanked the kick like someone with money on the Panthers and put his team in an awful situation.

Getting back to Ryan, he really has no excuse for playing as poorly as he has, because the running game has been productive (unlike earlier in the season when the passing game had to carry the Falcons). Michael Turner (nine carries, 111 yards) suffered a high ankle sprain in the first half and couldn’t return, but Jason Snelling picked up the slack in his place and Ryan just couldn’t deliver. The running game should allow Ryan to make more plays in the passing game but he just hasn’t made the throws.

The Falcons have a great opportunity to earn a Wild Card in the NFC, but they can’t do it if Ryan continues to play as poorly as he has. He needs to rekindle the magic that helped him win the Rookie of the Year Award, or second half collapse for Atlanta is certainly possible.

As for the Panthers, they’re starting to get back to what they did last year: Run the ball and play good defense. It also helps when Jake Delhomme isn’t trying to give games away by throwing the ball to the other team and generally being useless.

With this win, the Panthers have gotten back into contention for the NFC Wild Card.

Update: Turner’s injury could be serious. If he’s out for any extended length of time, the Falcons’ season could be in danger, especially considering Jerious Norwood hasn’t played in weeks due to injuries.

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NFL Week 9 MVP Power Rankings

Mike Farley — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 12:00:43 +0000

With Drew Brees and Peyton Manning leading their teams to victory again, barely, there is no good reason to drop them in the rankings here. Meanwhile, Brett Favre and Jared Allen did not play, so we held spots for them, but moved Cedric Benson up based on a second 100-yard rushing performance against the Ravens.

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Halfway through the season, Brees and his Saints are 8-0 and have a three game lead in their division. Suffice to say, this team appears to be headed toward a first round bye, and their QB is one of the biggest reasons.

2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—After a subpar start to 2008 after knee surgery, Manning wanted to get off to a fast start this season, and he has done just that. But what might be more impressive is that after Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, he’s throwing to guys named Garcon and Collie.

3. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals—He rushed for 120 yards against the Ravens in Week 5, and 117 yards against them in Week 9. Read that back. That’s two 100 yard games against the Baltimore Ravens, and that’s just sick.

4. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings—The old man still has it, much to the dismay of everyone in Northern Wisconsin. You think Ted Thompson is sleeping well lately?

5. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings—He’s had two weeks to rest those wheels that never seem to stop moving. Next on Allen’s hit list is that poor Stafford kid in Detroit.

Honorable Mention–Elvis Dumervil, Broncos; Andre Johnson, Texans, Tom Brady, Patriots; Adrian Peterson, Vikings; Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, Chris Johnson, Titans; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Michael Turner, Falcons; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Steve Smith, Giants

NFL Week 8 MVP Power Rankings

Mike Farley — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 12:00:22 +0000

The race for MVP rages on at the midway point of the season, and it’s loaded with QBs, for good reason. Brees, Manning and Favre have a combined record of 21-1 and show no signs of slowing down. So we’ll give them their due, for now. Things are going to get mighty interesting, though, in the coming weeks as races get tighter and become closer to being decided, including this race for NFL MVP…..

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Their games are getting tighter, but it’s not like the Saints just beat a bad Falcons team on Monday night. That was a tough divisional match up and the Saints just keep, you know, marching…oh, forget it.

2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—No TDs against the Niners, but Manning still had a Week 8 best of 347 yards. Plus, the Colts remain undefeated.

3. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings—Okay, forget that one blemish against Pittsburgh. After another strong showing against his former team, Favre has now thrown for 1925 yards with 16 TDs and just 3 picks. And his team is 7-1. Raise your hand if you expected that kind of success.

4. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings—Three more sacks against the Packers. Jon Gruden talked about Allen having a “motor that never stops,” and that’s pretty spot on. Allen is not just playing like defensive player of the year, he’s making a strong case for MVP.

5. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals—Sorry Cedric, but while you were on bye, Favre and Allen terrorized the Packers, and Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew racked up a bunch of yards and TDs. We’ll hold you a spot, but let’s see how you do against the Ravens this week.

No need to hit the panic button on Matt Ryan

Anthony Stalter — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:08:19 +0000

In his first four games of the 2009 season, Atlanta Falcons second-year quarterback Matt Ryan had a QB rating of 98.0, 122.2, 82.3 and 110.0. He was off to a fantastic start and people started to assume that he would have Tom Brady-like numbers every game.

But in his last three outings, Ryan has QB ratings of 68.4, 66.1 and 46.6 and now all of a sudden he’s drawing comparisons to Rex Grossman. (Okay, so Ryan has never been compared to Grossman, but you get my feeble attempt at exaggerating my point.)

After his three-interception game last Monday night against the Saints, I’ve read at least two articles from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution about how Ryan doesn’t look like the same player he was as a rookie. The overall tone of the articles was that the Falcons should be worried, because “Matty Ice” hasn’t played well in three games.

But people need to take their hand off the ejection button, because Ryan is fine – he’s just going through typical growing pains. He had one of the best (if not the best) rookie season of any quarterback to ever play in the NFL, while leading what many believed was a 3-13 team to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth. Entering his second season, the expectations were sky high and now that he’s not playing well, some want to question whether or not last season was a fluke.

I’ll admit that following his performance in New Orleans on Monday night that he hasn’t looked like the same player he was last year or at the beginning of this year. He seems to be rushing his throws more and making bad decisions. His cool, calm pocket presence has turned into a rushed dance where he doesn’t always work through all of his progressions and set his feet to throw. He also seems to be locking in on Tony Gonzalez or Roddy White and therefore throwing a high number of interceptions. (He’s thrown eight in his last four games.)

But all of this doesn’t mean the young man is doomed or that what he accomplished last year was a fluke. Normally it takes a quarterback two or three full years before they start performing at a high level, so it’s understandable that Ryan is suffering a bit in his development. Plus, he has already shown that he has great work ethic, sound technique and can go through all his progressions while hitting a receiver in stride. He’s a good player and truth be told, his protection hasn’t been that great the past two weeks, which also aids in him rushing his throws and being off the mark.

Don’t forget that Michael Turner took a lot of pressure off Ryan last year and outside of his 151-yard performance against the Saints, he hasn’t been the same player either. But if Turner can get going, the offense will become more balanced and teams can’t pin their ears back and pass rush Ryan knowing that the Falcons have to throw.

Through all of this, Ryan has the Falcons at 4-3. If his O-line can give him a tad more protection and Turner can build some momentum off the New Orleans game, I have a feeling we’ll start to see better play out of “Matty Ice.”