2011 BCS Bowl Previews: BCS National Championship | Fiesta Bowl | Rose Bowl | Orange Bowl | Sugar Bowl

Date: Tuesday, January 4 2011
Time: 8:30PM ET
TV: ESPN

Why Watch: Because this may very well be Terrelle Pryor, Daniel Herron and DeVier Posey’s final game as Buckeyes after they were suspended for the first five games of the 2011 season after receiving improper benefits. Assuming there’s a NFL season next year, you have to wonder if all three will consider forgoing their senior years at Oho State to go pro. Either way, they’ll be in uniform for the Sugar Bowl against Arkansas and for now, that’s all that matters for college football fans (or the NCAA for that matter, which didn’t want ratings to suffer by suspending OSU’s best offensive players). The Buckeyes are 0-9 against SEC teams in bowl games and will face a Razorback squad making its first BCS Bowl appearance in school history. Fans that want to see a shootout may get one, as OSU averages 39.4 points per game and Arkansas averages 37.3 PPG. But the key may be OSU’s defense, which is allowing an average of 9.5 fewer points per contest than Arkansas.

Game FactsThe Buckeyes are 19-22 all-time in bowl games and finally broke a three-game bowl losing streak last year when they beat Oregon in the Rose Bowl. They haven’t played in the Sugar Bowl since 1998, when they defeated Texas A&M, 24-14. As previously mentioned, this will be Arkansas’ first appearance in a BCS bowl game and its first trip to the Sugar Bowl since 1969, when it lost 27-22 to Ole Miss. The Hogs are 12-22-3 all-time in bowl games, which includes a 20-17 overtime win over East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl last season.

Key Player: Knile Davis, Arkansas.
We all know about Ryan Mallett and the Arkansas passing game, but the balance that Davis adds is what makes the Razorbacks especially dangerous. Despite starting just seven of Arkansas’ 12 games, Davis managed to gain 1,183 yards and score 13 touchdowns. He’s also a First-Team All-SEC selection and if he can get things going on the ground, that will open things up for Mallett in the passing game.

Odds: Ohio State -3.5
Ohio State opened as a 3-point favorite but the line has since moved up to 3.5. That’s a little surprising given the Buckeyes’ struggles against the SEC in bowl games, but the public remembers how OSU’s defense shut down Jeremiah Masoli and Oregon’s explosive offense in last year’s Rose Bowl. The public can’t like the matchup between OSU’s offense against Arkansas’ defense either. The over/under total opened at 57.5 but is now down to 56.5, presumably because bettors are buying into how the Buckeyes’ defense could stifle Mallett and Bobby Petrino’s offense.

How Arkansas can win: If its defense shows up. Arkansas was in some shootouts this season — most notably a 65-43 loss to Auburn — and we know that Petrino’s offense can score points. What we need to see is Arkansas’ defense stop a good team. The Razorbacks allowed 22.8 points per game, but that jumped to 30 points per contest against the six ranked opponents that they faced throughout the year. The good news is that the Razorbacks beat four of those six opponents, while Ohio State does not have a win against a ranked team this season.

Why Ohio State will win: Because of its defense. Mallett saw some good defenses and great defensive backs during the SEC season, but Ohio State will be the best secondary he’s seen all year. The Buckeyes were No. 4 in the country in pass efficiency defense because they can cover and get after the passer. Plus, you don’t think Pryor, Posey and Herron will be out to prove something before they’re held out of the first five games next year (assuming they return, of course)?

Prediction: Ohio State 34, Arkansas 27

Contributors: Anthony Stalter and Paul Costanzo

After Friday’s games, today might be a little anti-climactic, but there’s still plenty to be determined on college football’s more traditional day.

The Big Ten title is still up for grabs, with three teams — Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State — all tied at the top with one loss. If all three win, the BCS standings will decide who goes to the Rose Bowl. That will likely be Wisconsin, which has that edge going into today. If Wisconsin loses and the other two win, the BCS will again decide who goes to the Rose Bowl, as Ohio State and Michigan State did not play each other. It’s a problem the Big Ten will have solved next year when there’s a title game (two title contenders not playing each other, that is. As the Big 12 showed us two years ago, the BCS can still decide a divisional race if all hell breaks loose).

If Wisconsin wins, however, and either Ohio State or Michigan State lose, it will be a lot more clear cut. The Spartans get the bid with an Ohio State loss as they have the head-to-head edge over Wisconsin. The Badgers get it if Michigan State loses, because they hold that same edge over Ohio State.

So those are your scenarios (sure, there’s the “all three lose” scenario, as well, where Iowa is back in the mix, but I don’t want to force that upon you before noon). Here’s how it will play out.

I went 1-2 Friday, which is awful when picking straight up. But I don’t think I’m alone after the shocking results from one of the more impactful days of college football I can ever remember.

Michigan at No. 8 Ohio State, noon: Just four years ago, people were arguing whether or not this was the biggest rivalry in all of sports. But after six straight Buckeye wins in the series, it’s lost a lot of its luster outside of the Midwest. Ohio State should have its way with Michigan, as scoring shouldn’t be an issue, and it has the athletes up front to contain Denard Robinson. The big question here is how much Michigan can lose by and save Rich Rodriguez’s job. If they’re blown out, there are a lot of people in the state that think he’ll be gone within the week. If it’s close, some still think he’s gone. If he wins, there’s no way he goes. But he’s not winning. Pick: Ohio State 34-21.

No. 10 Michigan State at Penn State, noon: Had this game been played in Week 6, I would have called it a no-brainer. The Spartans were rolling and Penn State was reeling. Now, with a banged up Kirk Cousins and suddenly struggling run game, the Spartans don’t look nearly as powerful as they did when they defeated Wisconsin and Michigan in consecutive weeks. Penn State, meanwhile, doesn’t look near as bad as it did early in the season. Have they come all the way to meet in the middle? Yes, but I don’t think they’ve overlapped. Pick: MSU 21-20.

Northwestern at No. 7 Wisconsin, 3:30 p.m.: The Wildcats have proven to be pesky at times this season, but if you watched the one-way madness at Wrigley last week, you saw that they can be run on. If Mikel Leshoure can run for 300-plus yards against Northwestern, what can Wisconsin do at home with a Big Ten title on the line? Probably quite a bit. Enjoy Pasadena, Badgers. Pick: Wisconsin 48-20.

No. 5 LSU at No. 12 Arkansas, 3:30 p.m.: This game could very well be for the second SEC BCS berth. The Tigers would certainly head to the Sugar Bowl — assuming Auburn wins next week in the SEC title game — with a win, and there’s a decent chance that the Sugar would opt for Arkansas with a win, as well. I’ve had serious doubts about LSU all season, as it plays way too close to its competition way too often. But when the Tigers need to turn it up, they do. That should be the case today. Pick: LSU 27-24.

No. 13 Oklahoma at No. 9 Oklahoma State, 8 p.m.: A win sends the Cowboys to the Big 12 championship, while a loss causes some Big-Ten-like confusion at the top of the Big 12 South. I don’t really know what to think of this Jekyll and Hyde Oklahoma team, other than I know it’s more than capable of pulling this off today. But I have a real tough time going against that Oklahoma State offense and Justin Blackmon. Kid’s a creature, and I mean that as compliment. Pick: Oklahoma State 35-31.

Remember the first time you saw this picture — if you’ve seen it — and thought to yourself, “someone’s going to get killed catching a post pattern.”? Well, apparently the Big Ten — and the NCAA — thought the same thing, and Illinois and Northwestern will play their game today at Wrigley Field like you used to play in your backyard — always going toward the “good” end.

No, your eyes aren’t fooling you there. That is the goalpost attached to the wall at Wrigley. The wall that literally cuts into the paint of the end line.

The good news for Northwestern, Illinois and the Big Ten is that this mess of a field has drawn a lot of attention to a game that really doesn’t mean anything. People will tune in to see the wall in the endzone, and how the teams react to always going the same way.

It’s not the only game that is using a baseball field to create attention and ratings, as Notre Dame will play Army at Yankee Stadium tonight. The thought of these two playing at Yankee Stadium — even though it’s the new Yankee Stadium — has evoked a lot of memories of this historical rivalry. And these are two programs that love it when you’re focusing on history, because their history is a lot better than their present.

Both games are pulling in huge money for tickets, probably just for the spectacle. But even on a weak day in college football, neither game is big enough to crack the top five games of the week.

I had a pretty good day last week, going 4-1. I swung and missed on Florida vs. South Carolina, because for some reason I believed a Steve Addazio-led offense could score 21 points. How silly of me.

No. 7 Wisconsin at Michigan, noon: This game is really intriguing to me for a few reasons. Wisconsin, of course, is coming off dropping 83 points on Indiana a week ago (for the record, I have no problem with college teams scoring a million points on opponents. In a system where you have to overly impress to move ahead instead of beat the team ahead of you, that’s what happens). Michigan, of course, gave up 65 points two weeks ago to an Illinois team that doesn’t have an offense as good as Wisconsin’s. Really, other than Purdue, Michigan’s given up a ton of points to every Big Ten opponent it’s faced. So what can the Badgers do today? How many points can they score with John Clay actually in the lineup? And while they’re scoring points, can they stop Michigan and Denard Robinson/Tate Forcier? It may take until 5 p.m. to finish this one, but I imagine it will be fun to watch. Pick: Wisconsin 52-41.

No. 9 Ohio State at No. 20 Iowa, 3:30 p.m.: The interesting thing about this game is that Ohio State has had slow starts in all of its big games this year. Iowa, meanwhile, is a team that seems to feed almost exclusively off of momentum (see: Michigan State game). The Hawkeyes are coming home after losing to Northwestern, and are likely out of the Big Ten title hunt. They’re a wounded animal, which is dangerous, especially early on against a slow-starting team. But if I’ve figured this out, I’m sure Jim Tressel has, too. I think he’ll have his team ready to weather the early storm in Kinnick, and then it will simply come down to Terrelle Pryor having to make plays down the stretch. Pick: Ohio State 21-20.

No. 16 Virginia Tech at No. 24 Miami, 3:30 p.m.: The Hurricanes haven’t really skipped a beat with Stephen Morris taking over for the injured Jacory Harris at quarterback. But that was against Maryland and Georgia Tech. Now he’s going to have to deal with a red-hot Virginia Tech team, led by Bud Black’s Foster’s (wrong Bud. Wrong sport) defense. If Morris can get things going early, and Miami’s athletic defense can corral Tyrod Taylor, the Hurricanes have a shot. If the Hokies get going early, however, and rattle the freshman, it could be a long day. Pick: Va Tech 24-17.

No. 13 Arkansas at No. 21 Mississippi State, 7 p.m.: Who would have thought we’d be paying this much attention to Mississippi State this season? Off the field, the Bulldogs brought all of this upon themselves by going public with the Cam Newton allegations. Not saying they’re wrong, just pointing out that there’s nobody else to blame if the players feel there are off-field distractions. On the field, all of the attention seems to be stemming from beating Florida a month ago. Sorry, but that’s not something that deserves attention this year. Pick: Arkansas 31-21.

No. 8 Nebraska at No. 19 Texas A&M, 8 p.m.: A&M is riding high into this one, on a four-game win streak with wins over Oklahoma, Baylor and Texas Tech (it also beat Kansas, but that doesn’t really need to be mentioned). The Aggies had lost three straight prior to that, and would keep themselves in the Big 12 South race with a win today. Nebraska’s an interesting team, as it either looks lights out, or meh. The Huskers squeaked out an overtime win against a better-than-expected Iowa State team two weeks ago, and only scored 20 points against Kansas last week. The normally impenetrable Husker defense has hit some rough spots this season, and faces a tough task against Jerrod Johnson. If Taylor Martinez and Roy Helu can get the ground game going, Nebraska will be fine, because that defense will get a few stops against the Aggies, and Johnson will stop the offense himself a couple of times. Pick: Nebraska 28-20.

Today is a big day for TCU and Utah, as they get to prove themselves to a national audience in a huge game between top five teams.

Oh. Wait. This game is somehow not on any kind of normal television. I keep hearing CBS College Sports Network, which does nothing for me because I have a digital basic package. I figured Versus was going to bail me out, but nope. Versus is showing us the very important and very sought after Princeton vs. Penn game. I’d rather watch those two schools square off in quiz bowl. OK, that’s a lie. I don’t want to see that either.

Luckily for TCU and Utah, there’s a lot of hype around the game, meaning the winner will get some preferential treatment in the polls just by the final score. Not to mention the fact that TCU is being listed at No. 3 (its BCS ranking) and Boise at No. 4, while the Broncos are actually No. 3 in the coaches poll and TCU is No. 4. A win by the Horned Frogs just may push them past Boise, if for no other reason than the coaches might have just figured they already were. Don’t you love the BCS?

I went 3-2 last week, because I didn’t believe in Baylor, and I believed too much in USC. Oh well, I feel a 5-0 day coming up.

No. 21 Baylor at No. 17 Oklahoma State, 12:30 p.m.: I covered a high school game Friday night that finished 49-48. It was insane. That’s what this game will be like, although instead of me standing outside in 30-degree temperatures, I’ll be inside my warm house, watching a game played in a fairly warm climate. What I’m saying is both of these teams have super explosive offenses, but lack very good defenses, meaning we’re in for a track meet. It could be a “whoever has the ball last” kind of thing, in which case I just go with the home team. Pick: Oklahoma State 45-42.

No. 3 TCU at No. 5 Utah, 3:30 p.m.: Utah is carrying a 21-game home win streak into this one, which is pretty impressive. The Utes are also somewhat under the radar, if you can say that about an unbeaten team ranked in the top five. But with all the attention being paid to TCU and Boise State this year, people seem to have forgotten that Utah — the original BCS buster — has just as good a shot as being the team that completely breaks the mold this year. But … TCU is better. The Horned Frogs have an incredible defense, and have a more impressive resume to this point than Utah. They pounded Baylor, and for that matter, everyone they’ve played since beating Oregon State by nine in the opener. Utah could keep it close being at home — and the Utes are damn good team, too — but I don’t think it can win it. Pick: TCU 28-24.

No. 6 Alabama at No. 10 LSU, 3:30 p.m.: The breakdown in this game is simple — Alabama is a well-rounded team and shouldn’t have a ton of trouble with an LSU team that can’t score — so let’s look for other things to write about. Um, well, both teams are coming off a bye. That means the Tide had an extra week with Nick Saban and LSU had one with Les Miles. So the advantage in this one just went from “Alabama” to “are you kidding me? Alabama.” Pick: Alabama 23-12.

No. 18 Arkansas at No. 19 South Carolina, 7 p.m.: This game could be a shootout, considering Arkansas is still in search of a good defense, and South Carolina has a rough pass defense. I have a lot more faith in the South Carolina defense, however, than I do Arkansas’ to come up with a stop or two when it matters. Not too mention South Carolina has Alshon Jeffery, who’s awesome. Pick: South Carolina 34-31.

No. 15 Arizona at No. 13 Stanford, 8 p.m.: This should be a big test for Andrew Luck and the Stanford offense as Arizona is No. 7 in the country in scoring defense. Arizona, though, has had one and a half tough games, and it lost the half (which actually counts as a whole … but I digress). Stanford has kind of fallen off the radar after losing to Oregon, and I think some people forget that the Cardinal had the Ducks on the ropes for a while. That’s about as good as you can get against the Ducks this year. Pick: Stanford 28-20.

Two players who entered the day as Heisman Trophy contenders don’t look like they’ll be finishing their games. Arkansas’ Ryan Mallet was knocked out of his team’s game against Auburn with with a concussion and will not return. Michigan’s Denard Robinson was shaken up in the third quarter of his team’s game against Iowa, and has not returned. His injury has not been disclosed as of yet.

Both quarterbacks are crucial to their teams, as they’re perfect for the systems their coaches run. Mallett’s big arm is just what Bobby Petrino needs in Arkansas, and coming back at unbeaten Auburn could be a very difficult task without him.

Robinson is exactly the quarterback Rich Rodriguez needs to run his spread-option offense. His injury has forced Tate Forcier into action. Forcier responded by forcing a pass into coverage on his second drive, throwing an interception that led to a touchdown and a 21-point Iowa lead.

Meanwhile, in Nebraska, star freshman Taylor Martinez has been benched in favor of Zac Lee as the Cornhuskers are getting beat on by Texas.

Not a good day to be a Heisman-candidate quarterback, I suppose (unless you’re Cam Newton, who is carving up the Arkansas defense). Worried at all, Ohio State fans?

Two of the best quarterbacks in the nation will square off today when unbeaten Auburn plays host to Arkansas. Auburn’s Cam Newton is a big, physical dual threat, while Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett is a big-armed gun-slinger who can make all the throws.

Both are dynamic players in their own right, and with the success of their respective teams, they’re also right in the middle of the Heisman Trophy conversation. Today’s game could push even further up the chart, and perhaps even to the top.

Both should be able to put on a show, as well, as neither defense is overpowering. Arkansas is improved on that side of the ball from last year, but not by a ton. Auburn, meanwhile, just allowed 34 points to Kentucky. So expect some serious fireworks.

It’s one of — if not the — biggest games of a weekend that isn’t exactly as strong as the last couple have been. But there’s still plenty to take in.

Last week, I went 3-2, and I should probably give myself a third loss for doubting Stephen Garcia. Then again, his coach doubts him on a regular basis, so maybe I should give myself a free pass. I’m still searching for that perfect weekend, so let’s see if I can make it happen.

Texas at No. 5 Nebraska, 3:30 p.m.: The Longhorns, despite copious amounts of talent, aren’t a very good football team this year. I understand they lost Colt McCoy to graduation (hey, Colt, good luck in Pittsburgh this weekend. My guess is you’ll be wishing you were getting tossed around by Ndamukong Suh as opposed to what’s about to happen), but Garrett Gilbert is a very talented quarterback who played most of a national title game last year. A drop off there is still somewhat acceptable, I suppose, but what’s happening to that defense is pretty scary. Giving up 34 points to a UCLA team that has struggled since isn’t a good sign, especially with Taylor Martinez coming to town. UCLA ran for 264 yards in that game, so I’d imagine the Cornhuskers will be over 300. And the Huskers’ defense is light years ahead of UCLA’s. Pick: Nebraska 27-14.

No. 12 Arkansas at No. 7 Auburn, 3:30 p.m.: I think Newton is great, and I have a soft spot in my heart for Auburn since it was screwed out of a title shot in 2004, but I’m still not sold on this group. Auburn squeaked out victories over Mississippi State, Clemson and Kentucky. Sure, it beat South Carolina, but that had as much to do with Steve Spurrier giving up on Stephen Garcia as it did with Auburn being better. I’m not in love with Arkansas either, but I think they have more potential because of the weapons Mallett has around him. Pick: Arkansas 31-28.

No. 15 Iowa at Michigan, 3:30 p.m.: It looks like Michigan State has provided a blue print for stopping — or at least slowing down — Denard Robinson. The Spartans got pretty good penetration to stop him behind the line a few times, but mostly decided they weren’t going to give up the big play, which is what Michigan relies on. Iowa has a defense that can pull off the first part of that equation more often than not, as it boasts one of the nation’s top defensive lines. I don’t really like Ricky Stanzi, and I think he might make a play or three that keeps Michigan in this game. But he, Adam Robinson and the Hawkeyes offensive line will be more than enough to put up points against Michigan’s “defense.” Pick: Iowa 31-21.

No. 20 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, 3:30 p.m.: The Cowboys have benefited from a weak early-season schedule and Jerrod Johnson’s penchant for arm punting. Even at No. 20, they’re one of the country’s most overrated teams. Texas Tech is in a bit of a transition in Tommy Tuberville’s first year, but it can still put up a lot of points. The defense is still a long way from Tuberville approved, but it only will need a few stops today, as Oklahoma State gives away points like Discover Rewards (that’s my first credit card joke. How did it work?). Pick: Texas Tech 38-31.

No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Wisconsin, 7 p.m.: Speaking of overrated teams, Wisconsin is still riding the positive wave of preseason expectations and a fairly weak early-season schedule. The Badgers lost by 10 to Michigan State on the road, and have struggled with any other real opponent they’ve played. Maybe that’s why Bret Bielema went for two last week, because he was trying to make his team look better to scoreboard watchers. Or maybe he’s just a prick. Either way, Ohio State is much better than Wisconsin. The Buckeyes aren’t perfect, and Terrelle Pryor still has his issues at times, but the Badgers aren’t the team to knock them off. Did I say pretty much the same thing last week about Alabama/South Carolina? Maybe. But just try and trust me this week. Pick: OSU 24-20.

While the face of college football is constantly changing, one thing seems to remain a constant: If you can play good defense and run the ball, you’re going to win a lot of football games.

Alabama has those qualities, which is why its the reigning national champion, and the current No. 1 team in the country.

The Tide fell behind today, but on the back of its defense and run game clawed back into its game with Arkansas and eventually picked up a 24-20 win in front of a raucous crowd in Fayetteville.

Mark Ingram ran for 157 yards, many of which came with one or more Razorback on his back. His counterpart Trent Richardson added 85 more yards, and the team finished with 228 on the ground. It was punctuated with a 2-yard run by Greg McElroy on fourth-and-inches from midfield with under a minute to play. I’d say Nick Saban made a gutty call going for it in that situation, but I don’t know if anyone had any doubt the Tide was going to convert at that point.

The defense gave up some yards to Ryan Mallett, who threw for 357, but they also forced a career-high three interceptions from the highly-touted quarterback. Two of those came in the final 5 minutes, one setting up the go-ahead score. Arkansas isn’t much of a running team, but it was held to 64 yards on 20 carries.

This was just the first game in a really tough three-game stretch for Alabama, but it’s arguably the toughest of the three. Florida is next, but that’s at home, and the Gators’ offense doesn’t seem like it will pose much of a threat. That’s followed by a trip to South Carolina, and while the Gamecocks look much improved this year, I don’t think they’re ready for the Crimson Tide.

I had my doubts early in the year about Alabama’s chances to repeat, but Ingram and Richardson can run on anyone, and that defense — which just passed what will be its toughest test of the season — is only going to continue to get better. At this point, I don’t know who can beat the Tide.