Well, go figure. I change the name of this column to “Fade Material” and then I start handing out winning picks. If I knew that was all I had to do, I would have changed the title years ago and avoided all the years of .500 or below predictions.

After a 3-1 performance in Week 1, I finished 3-0-1 with my Week 2 picks. Georgia was a push against South Carolina but TCU, Alabama and BYU had no problems covering. I’m still looking for my first sweep of the season, so let’s see if we can’t nail it this week. (Although I admit to having reservations about “Road Test Weekend.” There are some tough games on the board…)

Auburn @ Clemson, 12:00PM ET
Everyone keeps waiting for Auburn to lose and all they’ve done the past two weeks is pull wins out of their backsides. The No. 19 Tigers find themselves once again as underdogs, this time against an unranked Clemson team. Nobody can ever quite figure out Clemson, which either plays the game of its life or sinks to the level of its competition. They’re 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 versus the SEC, while Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Auburn is also 6-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last four games an underdog. I think the Tigers of Auburn keeps this within a field goal, making that 3.5-point spread highly attractive.
THE PICK: AUBURN TIGERS +3.5

Ohio State @ Miami, 7:30PM ET
The Buckeyes face their first road test under new head coach Luke Fickell and while they didn’t look particularly sharp against Toledo last week at home, I like OSU to win outright tonight. They’ll face a quarterback in Jacory Harris, who is coming off a one-game suspension and who was unimpressive against Oho State last year. He threw four interceptions, including three in the first half alone. Granted, that was a different Buckeyes team last season but the defense is still solid and I expect them to give Harris trouble again this time around. The Buckeyes are 11-3 against the number in all games over the last two seasons and 14-4 ATS in road games in September since 1992.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +2.5

Northwestern @ Army, 3:30PM ET
The Wildcats are just 2-10 against the spread as a favorite over the last three seasons and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Army, meanwhile, is 4-2 against the number coming off a home loss and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss. Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa may be out for this game, which means it’ll be dual threat versus dual threat when Kain Colter battles Army’s Trent Steelman. I like the Black Knights to keep things close and get a big cover at home.
THE PICK: ARMY +6

Stanford @ Arizona, 10:45PM ET
Despite starting slow against Duke last week on the road, Stanford eventually got its offense going and cruised to a 44-14 victory (and an easy cover). The line keeps dropping in Arizona’s favor in this one and I’m not sure why (outside of the fact that they’re home). The Wildcats are 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games against Stanford and 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall meetings with the Cardinal. Meanwhile, Stanford is 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite.
THE PICK: STANFORD –9

Last Week: 3-0-1
Season: 6-1-1

For a complete list of odds for Week 3 in College Football, check out Bullz-Eye.com.

Derrick Williams played a nearly perfect first half, and then his supporting cast played a nearly perfect second half.

It’s really that simple.

If not for Williams, Duke might have blown Arizona out in the first 20 minutes. The sophomore forward went 8-for-11 from the field (5-of-6 from 3PT) for 25 points to go along with six rebounds, three steals and a block. That’s all in a half, people. Not a game. A half. His deep three as time expired cut the Duke lead from nine to six, and gave Arizona some momentum heading into intermission.

One category that coaches and statheads both look at is offensive efficiency, which is the number of points per possession that an offense scores in any given game. Since each offensive rebound starts a new possession, one stat I like to look at is the number of points per trip. In the second half, the Wildcats scored 55 points on 35 trips, or 1.57 points per trip. The sign of a good offense is generally 1.0 point per trip, so Arizona’s work in the half was nothing short of outstanding.

Arizona missed just 16 shots in the second half (making 21), but gathered 12 (twelve!) offensive rebounds, so along with three turnovers, the Wildcats only had eight scoreless trips in the second half. That means that they scored on 27 of their 35 (77%) trips in the final 20 minutes. That’s a truly an amazing half of basketball.

Arizona made nearly all its open shots and hit several tough leaners and fadeaways that aren’t typically high percentage shots. They took care of the ball — remember the aforementioned three turnovers — and made every correct decision when Duke’s defense came over to help or trap.

That said, Duke still had a chance to make a run with about six minutes to play. The Blue Devils cut the lead from 14 to 11 and forced an Arizona miss, but Nolan Smith couldn’t convert a semi-tough layup to get the lead under 10. Had that shot gone in, the pressure would have been back on the Wildcats, and the game might have been tighter at the end. But it didn’t fall and Arizona went on a 5-0 run to push the lead back to 16. Wheels off. Game over.

Cam Newton’s done a lot of smiling so far this season. He’s the Heisman Trophy front-runner on the undefeated No. 2 team in the country.

A lot of people, including Vegas, don’t believe he’ll be smiling after today’s Iron Bowl, however.

The Tigers come into today’s game (2:30 p.m. ET on CBS) as a 4-point underdog against their biggest rival, Alabama, despite coming into the game with the undefeated record, Newton and two wins against the teams that have given Alabama its two losses.

It’s the game that is supposed to open the door for Boise State, or perhaps TCU to break into the national title game. It’s the game that’s supposed to save the NCAA from being embarrassed down the road if Newton is found to be ineligible after the Tigers have won a national title.

But will it be?

Yes, it’s Friday, but it’s the biggest day of the college football weekend this week. I figured I’d show up a day early and give you a quick look at three games today that have serious national title implications.

No. 2 Auburn at No. 11 Alabama, 2:30 p.m.: I’m assuming Alabama’s perceived strength as the defending national champion which features last year’s Heisman Trophy winner is the reason the Tide are favored in this one. They’re also at home, which always helps. Here’s why I’d place Alabama as the favorite — the Tide aren’t as strong defensively as they were a year ago, but they still play good defense. They also have one of the best defensive game-planners in the country in Nick Saban to try and shut down Newton. I understand Auburn beat LSU and South Carolina while Alabama wasn’t able to. But none of that matters today. In the end, I think the Tide will have more than enough offense to take advantage of Auburn’s weak defense, and just enough defense to slow down Newton and knock off the Tigers. Pick: Alabama 27-24.

No. 21 Arizona at No. 1 Oregon, 7 p.m.: The Wildcats are 12th nationally in scoring defense at 18.1 points per game. But the only truly powerful offense they’ve played to this point is Stanford, which put up 42 in a win. Oregon’s offense, of course, is a step or two above powerful. A real big part of me thinks that Cal probably blew the best chance anyone will have to knock off Oregon before the title game. The Civil War next week is always dangerous, and I suppose there’s a small chance Oregon is looking ahead. But even if it is, I just don’t see a scenario where Arizona is able to keep up in this one. Pick: Oregon 48-24.

No. 4 Boise State at No. 19 Nevada, 10:15 p.m.: I heard Kirk Herbstreit on the radio the other day saying that this was a game that Boise State didn’t have to win by a ton because it’s another top 20 team on the road. I don’t know about that. Voters always seem to be looking for a reason to knock the Broncos down, and a close win against a WAC opponent might be just the fuel they need to do it. If Auburn — or Oregon, for that matter — loses during the day, this will be the biggest game in the school’s history. A win likely puts the Broncos in the driver’s seat for the BCS title game. Can they handle the pressure and pound another team? Have they ever not? Pick: Boise State 41-21.

Today is a big day for TCU and Utah, as they get to prove themselves to a national audience in a huge game between top five teams.

Oh. Wait. This game is somehow not on any kind of normal television. I keep hearing CBS College Sports Network, which does nothing for me because I have a digital basic package. I figured Versus was going to bail me out, but nope. Versus is showing us the very important and very sought after Princeton vs. Penn game. I’d rather watch those two schools square off in quiz bowl. OK, that’s a lie. I don’t want to see that either.

Luckily for TCU and Utah, there’s a lot of hype around the game, meaning the winner will get some preferential treatment in the polls just by the final score. Not to mention the fact that TCU is being listed at No. 3 (its BCS ranking) and Boise at No. 4, while the Broncos are actually No. 3 in the coaches poll and TCU is No. 4. A win by the Horned Frogs just may push them past Boise, if for no other reason than the coaches might have just figured they already were. Don’t you love the BCS?

I went 3-2 last week, because I didn’t believe in Baylor, and I believed too much in USC. Oh well, I feel a 5-0 day coming up.

No. 21 Baylor at No. 17 Oklahoma State, 12:30 p.m.: I covered a high school game Friday night that finished 49-48. It was insane. That’s what this game will be like, although instead of me standing outside in 30-degree temperatures, I’ll be inside my warm house, watching a game played in a fairly warm climate. What I’m saying is both of these teams have super explosive offenses, but lack very good defenses, meaning we’re in for a track meet. It could be a “whoever has the ball last” kind of thing, in which case I just go with the home team. Pick: Oklahoma State 45-42.

No. 3 TCU at No. 5 Utah, 3:30 p.m.: Utah is carrying a 21-game home win streak into this one, which is pretty impressive. The Utes are also somewhat under the radar, if you can say that about an unbeaten team ranked in the top five. But with all the attention being paid to TCU and Boise State this year, people seem to have forgotten that Utah — the original BCS buster — has just as good a shot as being the team that completely breaks the mold this year. But … TCU is better. The Horned Frogs have an incredible defense, and have a more impressive resume to this point than Utah. They pounded Baylor, and for that matter, everyone they’ve played since beating Oregon State by nine in the opener. Utah could keep it close being at home — and the Utes are damn good team, too — but I don’t think it can win it. Pick: TCU 28-24.

No. 6 Alabama at No. 10 LSU, 3:30 p.m.: The breakdown in this game is simple — Alabama is a well-rounded team and shouldn’t have a ton of trouble with an LSU team that can’t score — so let’s look for other things to write about. Um, well, both teams are coming off a bye. That means the Tide had an extra week with Nick Saban and LSU had one with Les Miles. So the advantage in this one just went from “Alabama” to “are you kidding me? Alabama.” Pick: Alabama 23-12.

No. 18 Arkansas at No. 19 South Carolina, 7 p.m.: This game could be a shootout, considering Arkansas is still in search of a good defense, and South Carolina has a rough pass defense. I have a lot more faith in the South Carolina defense, however, than I do Arkansas’ to come up with a stop or two when it matters. Not too mention South Carolina has Alshon Jeffery, who’s awesome. Pick: South Carolina 34-31.

No. 15 Arizona at No. 13 Stanford, 8 p.m.: This should be a big test for Andrew Luck and the Stanford offense as Arizona is No. 7 in the country in scoring defense. Arizona, though, has had one and a half tough games, and it lost the half (which actually counts as a whole … but I digress). Stanford has kind of fallen off the radar after losing to Oregon, and I think some people forget that the Cardinal had the Ducks on the ropes for a while. That’s about as good as you can get against the Ducks this year. Pick: Stanford 28-20.

Under the direction of Mike Stoops, Arizona has won some very big games. The Wildcats knocked off a top 10 team three years in a row from 2005-07, with UCLA, California and Oregon all being their victims. This past year, Arizona even knocked off the Pac 10′s Goliath in USC.

But those wins all came late in the season, when Arizona had already piled up a handful of losses. One thing the Wildcats — who seem to perennially be thought of as a sleeper team — have not done, is capitalize on any preseason hype with a big-time early-season win.

They have the chance to do that tonight, though, when they play host to No. 9 Iowa. A win moves the Wildcats to 3-0 and gives them some serious national respect. It would also be a huge victory for the Pac 10, which is trying to assert itself as a top conference, even with a lethargic, and penalized, USC.

Can Stoops and Arizona pull it off? Click through for that prediction, and more from today’s games.

Last week I was a Dayne Crist eye injury away from going 5-0, so clearly there was something strange in the air. Let’s see if I can’t repeat — or beat — that this week.

No. 12 Arkansas at Georgia, noon: This is the first real test of the season for Ryan Mallett and the Razorbacks’ offense, and I’d expect that to show, at least early on. The problem for Georgia will be staying on the field offensively, as again they’re without A.J. Green, who is still serving an NCAA suspension. That means freshman Aaron Murray is going to have to find a way to get it done in the passing game without him, which he was unable to do consistently a week ago. I’d expect the Razorbacks to load up the line of scrimmage and force Murray to beat them. At least if they’re smart, because I don’t think he can out-gun Mallett, even with a defensive advantage. Pick: Arkansas 23-17.

No. 8 Nebraska at Washington, 3:30 p.m.: The good news for Washington is that it’s at home, and Steve Sarkisian has already proven he can pull off a big upset in his own building. The bad news is Nebraska has faced Western Kentucky and Idaho so far, and gets South Dakota State next week. I’d venture a guess that the Cornhuskers have spent a little bit of time over the past few weeks working in a gameplan to stop Jake Locker. Ndamukong Suh might be gone, but the Huskers still have one of the more dominant defenses in the country. Add that to the fact Locker still doesn’t have the weapons necessary to beat a team like that, and really hasn’t looked all that sharp to begin with (which hasn’t stopped Todd McShay from camping out outside of his apartment, however), and I think it might be a tough day for the Huskies. Pick: Nebraska 20-14.

No. 10 Florida at Tennessee, 3:30 p.m.: There’s a rule when you write a college football picks column/blog/diary/manifesto that you have to pick the Florida/Tennessee game. It’s unwritten, but it’s still there. So even in a year where Tennessee looks light years away from competing in the SEC again, and Florida’s offense is actually tougher to watch than its perp walk, I’m forced to pick a winner. The key to this game is whether or not John Brantley can get over the Neyland Stadium crowd. Tennessee is far less talented, but will come out strong (kind of like it did against Oregon, but I’d expect even more passion in a huge rivalry). The Gators defense should be enough to stomp out any emotional fires in the early going, but that’s if Brantley can at least manage the game during that time. If he struggles and turns the ball over, we could have a ballgame on our hands. If he takes care of it, Florida should roll. I’ll go with some combination of both (if that’s even possible). Pick: Florida 24-13.

Notre Dame at Michigan State, 8 p.m.: Since I’m from the Midwest, I’ve got to give the region some love this weekend. If history tells us anything, this will be one heck of a game, and it probably won’t be decided until the final whistle. I live about an hour and a half away from East Lansing, and I have no clue what to expect from Michigan State. I have multiple friends who are either going to school there or have graduated from there that don’t know either. That’s what happens when a team opens with Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic (in an away game, in Detroit). The Spartans look to still be a little soft defensively, especially in coverage. Offensively, their run game has been great, and the pass game has been pretty vanilla. Notre Dame, meanwhile, is just happy it doesn’t have to see Denard Robinson for another year. And offensively, looks alright when Crist can see out of both of his eyes. It’s tough to predict the unpredictable (which this game often is), but I’ll go with what I think I know, and that’s Notre Dame is a better overall team. Pick: Notre Dame 34-30.

No. 9 Iowa at No. 24 Arizona, 10:30 p.m.: This is easily the game of the night (at least on paper). As I mentioned earlier, Arizona has a chance to put itself into the national conversation, while Iowa can solidify itself as a serious title contender with a tough road win. The Hawkeyes have looked sharp to start this season, and that starts with their quarterback, Ricky Stanzi. He earned a reputation a year ago for orchestrating late comebacks, but a lot of that was necessary because of the 15 interceptions he threw. If he’s over that, Arizona is in trouble, and so is the rest of the Big Ten. Arizona has a solid signal-caller of its own in Nick Foles, but he’s going to be dealing with a very good Iowa defensive front all night, led by Adrian Clayborn. I think that defensive front makes the difference in a very tight game. Pick: Iowa 23-20.

What does Murray bring to a basketball program? I have no idea. Presumably, neither does he; he only graduated college in 2007 and is still a G.A., meaning he’ll be doing quite a bit of quiet learning — preparing tape, taking notes, keeping the clipboard handy, that sort of thing — for at least a few more years. But he’ll be interesting to watch. If he has one-tenth of his father’s charisma, it’s only a matter of time until he’s a major college hoops coach on his own.

Good luck to Murray in his new endeavor. Something tells me he’ll do just fine.