Well, go figure. I change the name of this column to “Fade Material” and then I start handing out winning picks. If I knew that was all I had to do, I would have changed the title years ago and avoided all the years of .500 or below predictions.

After a 3-1 performance in Week 1, I finished 3-0-1 with my Week 2 picks. Georgia was a push against South Carolina but TCU, Alabama and BYU had no problems covering. I’m still looking for my first sweep of the season, so let’s see if we can’t nail it this week. (Although I admit to having reservations about “Road Test Weekend.” There are some tough games on the board…)

Auburn @ Clemson, 12:00PM ET
Everyone keeps waiting for Auburn to lose and all they’ve done the past two weeks is pull wins out of their backsides. The No. 19 Tigers find themselves once again as underdogs, this time against an unranked Clemson team. Nobody can ever quite figure out Clemson, which either plays the game of its life or sinks to the level of its competition. They’re 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 versus the SEC, while Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Auburn is also 6-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last four games an underdog. I think the Tigers of Auburn keeps this within a field goal, making that 3.5-point spread highly attractive.
THE PICK: AUBURN TIGERS +3.5

Ohio State @ Miami, 7:30PM ET
The Buckeyes face their first road test under new head coach Luke Fickell and while they didn’t look particularly sharp against Toledo last week at home, I like OSU to win outright tonight. They’ll face a quarterback in Jacory Harris, who is coming off a one-game suspension and who was unimpressive against Oho State last year. He threw four interceptions, including three in the first half alone. Granted, that was a different Buckeyes team last season but the defense is still solid and I expect them to give Harris trouble again this time around. The Buckeyes are 11-3 against the number in all games over the last two seasons and 14-4 ATS in road games in September since 1992.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +2.5

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Derrick Williams played a nearly perfect first half, and then his supporting cast played a nearly perfect second half.

It’s really that simple.

If not for Williams, Duke might have blown Arizona out in the first 20 minutes. The sophomore forward went 8-for-11 from the field (5-of-6 from 3PT) for 25 points to go along with six rebounds, three steals and a block. That’s all in a half, people. Not a game. A half. His deep three as time expired cut the Duke lead from nine to six, and gave Arizona some momentum heading into intermission.

One category that coaches and statheads both look at is offensive efficiency, which is the number of points per possession that an offense scores in any given game. Since each offensive rebound starts a new possession, one stat I like to look at is the number of points per trip. In the second half, the Wildcats scored 55 points on 35 trips, or 1.57 points per trip. The sign of a good offense is generally 1.0 point per trip, so Arizona’s work in the half was nothing short of outstanding.

Arizona missed just 16 shots in the second half (making 21), but gathered 12 (twelve!) offensive rebounds, so along with three turnovers, the Wildcats only had eight scoreless trips in the second half. That means that they scored on 27 of their 35 (77%) trips in the final 20 minutes. That’s a truly an amazing half of basketball.

Arizona made nearly all its open shots and hit several tough leaners and fadeaways that aren’t typically high percentage shots. They took care of the ball — remember the aforementioned three turnovers — and made every correct decision when Duke’s defense came over to help or trap.

That said, Duke still had a chance to make a run with about six minutes to play. The Blue Devils cut the lead from 14 to 11 and forced an Arizona miss, but Nolan Smith couldn’t convert a semi-tough layup to get the lead under 10. Had that shot gone in, the pressure would have been back on the Wildcats, and the game might have been tighter at the end. But it didn’t fall and Arizona went on a 5-0 run to push the lead back to 16. Wheels off. Game over.

Cam Newton’s done a lot of smiling so far this season. He’s the Heisman Trophy front-runner on the undefeated No. 2 team in the country.

A lot of people, including Vegas, don’t believe he’ll be smiling after today’s Iron Bowl, however.

The Tigers come into today’s game (2:30 p.m. ET on CBS) as a 4-point underdog against their biggest rival, Alabama, despite coming into the game with the undefeated record, Newton and two wins against the teams that have given Alabama its two losses.

It’s the game that is supposed to open the door for Boise State, or perhaps TCU to break into the national title game. It’s the game that’s supposed to save the NCAA from being embarrassed down the road if Newton is found to be ineligible after the Tigers have won a national title.

But will it be? Read the rest of this entry »

Today is a big day for TCU and Utah, as they get to prove themselves to a national audience in a huge game between top five teams.

Oh. Wait. This game is somehow not on any kind of normal television. I keep hearing CBS College Sports Network, which does nothing for me because I have a digital basic package. I figured Versus was going to bail me out, but nope. Versus is showing us the very important and very sought after Princeton vs. Penn game. I’d rather watch those two schools square off in quiz bowl. OK, that’s a lie. I don’t want to see that either.

Luckily for TCU and Utah, there’s a lot of hype around the game, meaning the winner will get some preferential treatment in the polls just by the final score. Not to mention the fact that TCU is being listed at No. 3 (its BCS ranking) and Boise at No. 4, while the Broncos are actually No. 3 in the coaches poll and TCU is No. 4. A win by the Horned Frogs just may push them past Boise, if for no other reason than the coaches might have just figured they already were. Don’t you love the BCS? Read the rest of this entry »

Under the direction of Mike Stoops, Arizona has won some very big games. The Wildcats knocked off a top 10 team three years in a row from 2005-07, with UCLA, California and Oregon all being their victims. This past year, Arizona even knocked off the Pac 10′s Goliath in USC.

But those wins all came late in the season, when Arizona had already piled up a handful of losses. One thing the Wildcats — who seem to perennially be thought of as a sleeper team — have not done, is capitalize on any preseason hype with a big-time early-season win.

They have the chance to do that tonight, though, when they play host to No. 9 Iowa. A win moves the Wildcats to 3-0 and gives them some serious national respect. It would also be a huge victory for the Pac 10, which is trying to assert itself as a top conference, even with a lethargic, and penalized, USC.

Can Stoops and Arizona pull it off? Click through for that prediction, and more from today’s games. Read the rest of this entry »

What’s a G.A., you might ask? It’s a graduate assistant, and they are generally unpaid (or very poorly paid) wannabe coaches fresh out of college who do all the things the coaching staff doesn’t want to do. Bill Murray’s son, Luke, just joined new coach Sean Miller as a G.A. at Arizona.

What does Murray bring to a basketball program? I have no idea. Presumably, neither does he; he only graduated college in 2007 and is still a G.A., meaning he’ll be doing quite a bit of quiet learning — preparing tape, taking notes, keeping the clipboard handy, that sort of thing — for at least a few more years. But he’ll be interesting to watch. If he has one-tenth of his father’s charisma, it’s only a matter of time until he’s a major college hoops coach on his own.

Good luck to Murray in his new endeavor. Something tells me he’ll do just fine.

The University of Arizona can’t catch a break. First, Tim Floyd turns them down and now Sean Miller has (reportedly) decided to stay in Cincinnati.

Xavier’s Miller met with Arizona athletic director Jim Livengood on Sunday about the Wildcats’ open head coaching job but rejected the school’s offer later that night, according to multiple media reports.

Xavier AD Mike Bobinski told ESPN.com’s Andy Katz that he expected to speak with Miller late Sunday or early Monday. He wrote in a text message: “Nothing firm at this moment, but I remain very optimistic that Sean Miller will continue as our head basketball coach at Xavier.”

Miller “has a potential Final Four team coming back next season, loves where he lives, has security and is paid well and has the best job in his league, yet has to decide whether or not this is the right job for him to explore,” Calipari said earlier Sunday.

So who’s next for Arizona? I’m sure the Wildcats would like an established guy in his 40′s (or early 50′s) who could guide the program for the next 10-15 years, but those coaches are hard to come by. Tim Floyd (55) elected to stay with USC, and now Miller (40) has as well.

Monday afternoon update: Sean Miller has accepted the Arizona job.

So much for those reports that had Tim Floyd packing his bags for Arizona. He has decided to stay at USC.

Floyd announced his decision in a meeting with reporters in Los Angeles Thursday afternoon. Floyd said he not only visited Arizona but also spoke to Memphis about its opening.

“I felt that I needed to look at those two programs,” Floyd told reporters on Thursday. “I am at a point where I want to do something really special and I feel like I needed to go look at an elite program.

“But there is something really special about building your own traditions, your own histories and doing it with a group of guys that you love. … I have never been more excited to be a Trojan.”

Floyd said his contract at USC remains unchanged.

“I have three years left on my contract,” he said. “No, there have not been any changes made that I am aware of. I would like another year or two. I think that would be great. I would like for this to be my last job.”

Floyd has done a nice job at USC, which is why Arizona wanted him in the first place. He has guided the Trojans to three straight NCAA appearances and three straight 20+ win seasons. The next step for the program is to crack the Elite Eight or Final Four.

So which direction does Arizona go now that Floyd has publicly turned down the job?

So much for those Pitino-to-Tuscon rumors. It looks as if Tim Floyd is poised to take over as head coach at Arizona.

Tim Floyd will be named basketball coach at Arizona, Mark Asher of Sports 620 KTAR, ESPN’s radio affiliate in Phoenix, is reporting according to multiple sources.

Floyd met with Arizona athletic director Jim Livengood on Wednesday night to work out the final details of the deal and an announcement is expected Thursday, according to sources.

Floyd, 55, has spent the last four seasons at USC with an 85-50 record. He led the Trojans to three NCAA tournament appearances — including the Sweet 16 in 2007.

Floyd previously coached in the NBA with the Chicago Bulls in 1999-2002 and the New Orleans Hornets in 2004.

He was also the head coach at Iowa State, New Orleans and Idaho.

Floyd is certainly a proven recruiter (O.J. Mayo, DeMar DeRozan), but I wonder if Arizona fans were expecting a bigger name to come to Tuscon. Rick Pitino recently bought a house there, which fueled speculation that he’d take over as head coach, but apparently sometimes a real estate transaction is just a real estate transaction.