Four spreads of note:

Giants +3 @ Cowboys, 8:30PM ET, Sunday
This game is the ultimate crapshoot; it could play out in a variety of different ways, none of which would be surprising. But if you’re looking for value, I almost always go with the underdog when it comes to betting on NFC East teams. When NFC East teams are expected to win against an inferior opponent, for whatever reason they seem to underachieve. Examples of this include the Cowboys’ loss to the Cardinals last week, or their failed cover against the Dolphins and Redskins, respectively, in previous games. The Giants also lost to the Seahawks at home, failed to cover against the Dolphins at home, and lost the Eagles as a 6-point favorite in Week 11. On the flip side, the Giants covered and won against the Eagles (Week 2), Patriots (Week 9) and Packers (Week 13) as underdogs of seven points or more. Granted, New York was also crushed by New Orleans in Week 12 but my point is this: NFC East teams often represent value when they’re the underdog and are good fade material when they’re supposed to win. I don’t have hard data here so take this simple approach with a grain of salt. But again, from a pure value standpoint it sure seems like NFC East teams rise to the challenge when they’re the dog.

Raiders +11 @ Packers, 4:15PM ET
As I’ve written many times on this site: It’s Green Bay and then everyone else. And with how poorly Oakland played last Sunday in Miami, there will be plenty of bettors that look at the spread in this game and lay the 11 points without hesitation. But let’s keep in mind that the Raiders’ backs are against the wall here. They’re now tied with Denver for first place in the AFC West and while they play undefeated Green Bay this Sunday, the Broncos have a very winnable home game against a Jay Cutler and Matt Forte-less Chicago team. Thus, we’re probably going to see Oakland’s best effort. With the amount of injuries that the Raiders accumulated in the past month, it was only a matter of time before they suffered a letdown like they did last weekend against the Dolphins. Thus, I’m thinking they bounce back strong this Sunday and at the very least stay within 10 points of the Pack.

49ers -3.5 @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
This is a game you look at and you say, “49ers are only -3.5? Sign me up.” But Arizona proved last Sunday in its win over Dallas that it hasn’t given up on the season despite the fact that the playoffs remain a longshot. The Rams, on the other hand, gave up weeks ago and bettors will probably rush to the window to lay coin on a Niners team that routed St. Louis by 26 points last week. What I’m saying is that this is your classic trap game. Oddsmakers claim that they don’t lay traps for bettors but why is this game only 3.5? San Fran is 10-2 this season while Arizona is 5-7. Even with home field advantage factored in, the line still seems too low. I’m not suggested that the Cards will win outright but something tells me oddsmakers are banking on this being a field goal game either way.

Falcons -3 @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
I wrote this in my recap of Week 13 and I’ll mention it again seeing as how it relates to this article: I don’t think there’s that wide of a gap between the Falcons and Panthers right now. On paper, Atlanta has better overall talent. But on paper, Atlanta had better overall talent than Houston and it lost 17-10 despite the fact that Andre Johnson suffered another hamstring injury in the second half and T.J. Yates started for the Texans at quarterback. The Falcons will once again be without top cornerback Brent Grimes and nickel back Kelvin Hayden, which means Dominique Franks and Chris Owens will receive plenty of looks this Sunday from Cam Newton. Given the inexperience of Franks and Owens, they become a weakness that Newton may exploit. There’s always value in a home dog and given the injuries the Falcons are currently dealing with on both sides of the ball, I’d give Carolina a long look this Sunday.

2011 NFL Week 14 Odds:

Read the rest of this entry »

What are some of the biggest questions heading into Week 13 of the NFL season?

1. Can the Texans survive with T.J. Yates at quarterback?
And by “survive” I mean win enough games to clinch the AFC South and make their first ever playoff appearance in franchise history. Apparently Gary Kubiak and his staff worked out Jeff Garcia and Jake Delhomme but for the moment, the starting job is firmly in the hands of Yates, who has zero experience outside of the two and a half quarters he played on Sunday. Now, Yates did have an impressive Pro Day back in April and does come from a pro style offense under North Carolina offensive coordinator John Shoop and head coach Butch Davis. He also impressed the Houston coaching staff this offseason and was considered a “sleeper” but some in the draft. But he’s a fifth-round pick and a developmental quarterback. He was never supposed to see the field this year and now all of a sudden the Texans’ playoff hopes are on his shoulders (for the moment, at least). Talk about pressure. This weekend the Texans play the Falcons, who have a solid run defense and who will certainly challenge Houston’s tough defense, unlike Jacksonville did last Sunday. It’ll be interesting to see how Yates on the Texans fare this week.

2. Can the Giants hand the Packers their first loss?
“Detroit and New York” were the two games most people pointed to as the games in which the Packers could suffer their first loss of the season. But after Green Bay somewhat easily disposed of the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, and following the Giants’ pitiful effort in New Orleans on Monday, it’s likely that there are less people on the New York bandwagon this week. If Aaron issues getting past New York. Granted, the Giants usually play better when their backs are against the wall but their backs were pressed firmly against the wall in New Orleans and they didn’t bother showing up. Thus, it makes you wonder if this isn’t another one of the G-Men’s late-season collapses under Tom Coughlin and Green Bay is just going to burn house down. We’ll find out soon…

3. Can the Bengals knock off the Steelers?
Just when you thought they would go quietly into that good night, the Bengals pulled off a come-from-behind victory last Sunday against the Browns and remain in Baltimore and Pittsburgh’s rearview mirror. That said, Cincinnati has to beat Pittsburgh this weekend if the Bengals are going to have any chance of making the playoffs this season. They’re not mathematically out if they lose but they have to prove to themselves that they can beat one of the two best teams in the AFC North. They fell to the Steelers by a touchdown at home three weeks ago but if they can win in Pittsburgh this weekend then the Bengals must be viewed as a legit contender.

4. Will the Cowboys seize control of the NFC East?
With the Giants’ loss to the Saints on Monday night, the Cowboys now have sole possession of first place in the NFC East. And seeing as how the Giants host the undefeated Packers on Sunday and the Cowboys play the 4-7 Cardinals, Dallas has a great opportunity to take a two-game lead in the division. But this is the Cowboys – the same team that needed overtime to beat the hapless Redskins in Week 11 and who were taken to the brink by the three-win Dolphins on Thanksgiving Day. (In defense of Dallas, Miami was on a three-game winning streak.) My point is that the ‘Boys have yet to put together that one signature win of 2011 and haven’t played a team with a winning record since Week 6 at New England. I wouldn’t be shocked if Arizona gives Dallas a game on Sunday.

5. The Broncos can’t keep winning this way, can they?
Actually yes, they probably can. At least this Sunday they can, because they travel to Minnesota to play a Vikings team that may or may not have Adrian Peterson (ankle) for a second straight week. There’s certainly no reason to believe that the Broncos can’t come away with another 16-13 victory as Denver’s defense stymies another opponent and Tim Tebow rushes for the game-winning score as time expires. Whatever “it” is, Denver has it as all of the players believe in Tebow despite his massive shortcomings as a passer. If the Vikings can’t figure the Broncos’ defense out then it’s going to be another long afternoon for Christian Ponder and Co.

Two weeks ago I was a flaming pile of horse dung. Last week, I went 3-1 as the Raiders, Seahawks and Bears/Packers under all hit. My lone loss was the Patriots, who choked away a 21-0 lead in Buffalo.

What does all this mean? I’m ready for my first 4-0 Sunday! Or, more than likely, another 0-4 day. Either way it’ll be fun…

Lions @ Cowboys, 1:00PM ET
Something’s fishy about this line. The public is all over the 3-0 Lions, especially with how poorly the Cowboys played on Monday night in a win over the Redskins. Yet Detroit goes from +1 to +2.5 the night before the game? Give me the Cowboys, who are 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games. (The home team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.)
THE PICK: COWBOYS –2.5

Panthers @ Bears, 1:00PM ET
Cam Newton has been a big-time surprise so far but I think the Bears’ Tampa 2 will give him problems today in Chicago. That defense is designed to take away the big play, which has been a staple of Newton’s game early on. The Bears have always played better at home and I like the fact that the spread is below the key number of 7. The Bears are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite, while the Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last four road games.
THE PICK: BEARS –6.5

Giants @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
Eli Manning and the Giants looked fantastic against the Eagles last Sunday in Philadelphia, so it’s only natural that he and New York will struggle against a 1-2 Cardinals team today. This is another spread that doesn’t make much sense. The Giants opened as a 3-point favorite and despite a public backing, it’s dropped to New York –1. Kevin Kolb is familiar with the Giants’ defense from his days in Philadelphia and I think that experience will play out today in an outright Arizona victory.
THE PICK: CARDINALS +1

Broncos @ Packers, 4:15PM ET
I don’t like this spread either. The Broncos are vastly inferior to the Packers and yet the line continues to drop. The spread opened at Green Bay –13.5 and is now down to 12. Who on earth is taking Denver in this matchup? Better yet, who is betting against Green Bay? The line movement doesn’t make sense and when that happens, I like going against the grain. A week after winning an emotional back-and-forth battle against the Saints, the Packers found themselves down 10-0 to the Panthers and didn’t cover. Now they’re coming off a physical road win against a divisional opponent (the Bears) and face a non-conference team that’s 1-2. I think this one stays within 10 points.
THE PICK: BRONCOS +12

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 5-7

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a complete list of NFL Week 4 odds.

Not a great start last week but not bad either. I hit the Eagles and Bengals but the Colts never arrived in Houston and the Titans fell short in Jacksonville. I’ll try harder today…

Cardinals @ Redskins, 1:00PM ET
Cam Newton was incredible in his debut but Arizona’s defense was sofffffft. Now the Cardinals have to hop a flight cross-country to play a Redskins team that didn’t have to move after playing at home last week. While the situation is built like a house of cards, Rex Grossman played well last Sunday against the Giants and I think he’ll carry that confidence into today. The Cardinals are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven road games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog. The Redskins, meanwhile, are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games versus the NFC.
THE PICK: REDSKINS –4

Browns @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
Apparently I’m a glutton for punishment because I’m right back on the Colts this week after their brutal performance in Week 1. It just doesn’t sit right with me that Indy is a 1-point home underdog against a Browns team that got drubbed by the Bengals at home last Sunday. Kerry Collins looked like crap-o-la in Houston but he should have an easier time this Sunday against Cleveland. The underdog is 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams while the Browns are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games versus the AFC.
THE PICK: COLTS +1

Read the rest of this entry »

After tonight there are no more predictions, no more projections and no more speculation. After tonight, the NFL season will have begun and it’s time to put the pre–season prognosticating to rest and let teams settle things on the field.

But for one last time before the games start counting for real, let’s examine what could potentially trip up contenders in both conferences. Below are 16 postseason contenders for the 2011 NFL season, along with 16 questions that revolve around concerns that that team has heading into the new year.

Patriots: What about the last line of defense?
The Patriots did a fantastic job this offseason addressing their need for more pass-rushers. But Bill Belichick may have created another weakness by leaving himself awfully thin at safety with the release of veterans Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders. Granted, Meriweather was less than impressive a year ago and Sanders has been injury prone throughout the years. For Meriweather, he often took bad angles to the ball last season and was caught out of position numerous times throughout the year. But in releasing both he and Sanders, Belichick is putting a lot of faith in Patrick Chung and 2010 rookie free agent Sergio Brown to man both safety positions. If Chung and Brown stay healthy and hold their own, then Belichick will once again look like a genius in his personnel decisions. If they falter, it doesn’t appear as though Belichick has left himself with a plan B.

Jets: Can Sanchez step up in the regular season?
If Mark Sanchez played as well in the regular season as he has in the postseason then maybe the Jets wouldn’t have to win playoff games on the road every year. Sanchez did take a step forward in his development last year but his consistency week-to-week remains an issue. This is a Jets team that could contend for a Super Bowl berth but not if Sanchez doesn’t continue to raise the level of his play. The goal for Rex Ryan and his team shouldn’t be the Super Bowl: it should be supplanting the Patriots in the AFC East first. Then they can set their sights a little higher.

Colts: How long will Peyton be out?
There’s no bigger question that needs to be answered for the Colts. With Manning they’ll once again be favored to win the AFC South. Without him they’ll probably sink to the bottom of the division. Kerry Collins may be able to keep this team afloat for a game or two, but without Manning the Colts will inevitably fall over a 16-game season. Hopefully for Indy’s sake Manning will return in a few weeks and more importantly, he’ll be close to 100-percent healthy. But there are reports that he’ll be out “a while” and if so, the next team on this list will have its shot to win the AFC South crown.

Texans: Is the defense really fixed?
Regular readers know that I fully believe this is the Texans’ year. I love the hiring of Wade Phillips, who has a long history of turning teams around in his first year as either head coach or defensive coordinator. This team also went a long way in shoring up a weakness with the signing of free agent cornerback Jonathan Joseph. But question still remain on that side of the ball. Is Mario Williams a linebacker? Can Kareem Jackson make strides in his second year? Will the safety position be a spot opponents can exploit? Arian Foster’s hamstring is a concern, as is whether or not Matt Schaub is the right man to get this team over the hump. But if the defense hasn’t been fixed then it won’t matter how much Foster or Schaub contribute because the Texans will fall short of expectations once again.

Read the rest of this entry »

In what could be devastating news for the rookie, Cardinals running back Ryan Williams “probably” has a torn patellar tendon according to head coach Ken Whisenhunt.

From Rotoworld:

It’s a season-ending and potentially career-threatening injury depending on Williams’ recovery process. The good news is that Williams is still just 21 years old, and the injury is occurring now as opposed to November. He’ll have a better chance to be healthy by the start of 2012 training camp. The bad news is that Williams will need major knee surgery and his rookie season in the NFL will be a washout. Beanie Wells will dominate carries in Arizona this year.

This poor kid can’t catch a break. After breaking multiple Virginia Tech and ACC rushing records in 2009 (including VA Tech’s single season rushing yards record, the ACC single season rushing touchdown mark and the ACC single season TD record), Williams injured his right hamstring in a game against East Carolina and wound up missing four games in 2010. Now he faces an even bigger injury hurdle.

Those we kept an eye on him in training camp were impressed by his quickness and ability to change directions without throttling down his speed. Given Beanie Wells’ injury concerns and inconsistently woes, Williams figured to see plenty of playing time in 2011. Hopefully he’ll only miss his rookie season and will be back in training camp again next year.

That now makes two players from the running back class of 2011 that will miss this season due to injury. The Lions’ Mikel Leshoure tore his Achilles’ tendon in practice last week.

Despite Monday’s report by Scout.com that said the coaching staff has concerns about whether or not he’s a fit in Ken Whisenhunt’s offense, the Cardinals are still expected to pursue quarterback Kevin Kolb if/when he becomes available if/when the lockout lifts.

From the Arizona Republic’s Kent Somers:

*Whenever they are able, the Cardinals will pursue a trade for Eagles quarterback Kevin Kolb. Kolb had highs and lows last season, but if you are looking for reasons to be excited about him, check out this highlight video of his game against the Falcons. He completed 23 of 29 for 326 yards and three touchdowns against good defense.

Kolb is considered a prototypical West Coast offense quarterback and Whisenhunt’s system involves more downfield throws, which is where the supposed concern comes in from Arizona’s coaching staff. Also, Kolb only averaged 6.46 per pass attempt in his five starts in 2010.

But Somers knows his stuff and is an excellent beat writer, so I would be more inclined to believe him over Scout.com if I were a Cardinals fan. There are going to be concerns no matter which quarterback (Kolb, Marc Bulger, Kyle Orton or whomever) the Cardinals wind up acquiring this offseason. But there’s little doubt that Kolb represents an upgrade over John Skelton and besides, the Cardinals’ coaching staff doesn’t have final say anyway. The final decision on whether or not to acquire Kolb will ultimately be made by GM Rod Graves.

After asking ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio what his “gut feel” is on where Kevin Kolb will end up next year, SI’s Peter King tweets that the Cardinals are “a slam dunk as much as you can have a slam dunk” to land Kolb.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Asked Sal gut feel where Kolb ends up. “Arizona … a slam dunk as much as you can have a slam dunk.” But only if Phl likes compensation.

The thing that will determine Philadelphia’s compensation is what the market will be like for Kolb once the lockout lifts. If Seattle, Arizona and Miami are all interested in Kolb, then the Eagles can pit the three teams against each other and drive up the price. But if the Cardinals are the only team that’s seriously interested, then Philly may have to settle for less than what they’re expecting in exchange for the veteran QB.

What the Seahawks need to do is drive up the price whether they’re interested or not. If Paolantonio’s “gut feel” is right and Kolb-to-Arizona is a slam dunk, then Seattle needs to make sure the Cardinals (their rivals in the NFC West) pay top dollar for the quarterback. They can always renege and pull their offer off the table if the Eagles get close to accepting it. (That may piss off Philadelphia but hey, the NFL is a business first and foremost.)

Where Kolb lands will be the question of the offseason once the owners and players stop d*cking fans around with this labor dispute.

According to Rotoworld (via 3TV News in Phoenix), the Cardinals have had preliminary contact with the Broncos about quarterback Kyle Orton’s availability.

Profootballtalk’s Gregg Rosenthal has it on good authority that teams can discuss trades “generally” even if following through isn’t yet allowed. Neither team is breaking the rules by engaging in hot-stove talk. The Broncos reportedly believe the Cardinals’ interest in Orton is strictly as a “Plan B” in case a deal can’t be worked out for Kevin Kolb. It’s refreshing to hear Arizona’s fallback plan is more than just a wink-and-nod understanding with Marc Bulger.

Orton would certainly be a better option than Bulger, who hasn’t taken a snap since 2009 and hasn’t been effective since 2006. Orton can put up good numbers in any offense and would probably flourish with a couple of key playmakers around him. As Rotoworld points out, he would be a nice fallback option for the Cards if they couldn’t acquire Kevin Kolb from Philly.

In his latest “Monday Morning Quarterback,” SI.com’s Peter King reiterated that the Eagles have an offer of a first-round pick in the 2012 draft from an unknown team for quarterback Kevin Kolb. But because of the ongoing labor dispute, Kolb is being held hostage by the unfortunate circumstances.

That “unknown team” may be the Arizona Cardinals, who reportedly had a deal in place for Kolb before the draft. The Cardinals decided not to draft a signal caller last week, so the thought is that they’re waiting for the labor dispute to end in order to make a run at Kolb (who has already said that he wouldn’t mind playing in the desert).

But the Dolphins and Seahawks also failed to address their quarterback needs in the draft, so maybe they’re gearing up to make a run at Kolb as well. Like all deals, whichever team can make the Eagles the best offer will have Kolb under center next season. The 26-year-old is a fit for any one of those teams and assuming the Eagles are willing to trade him, whoever lands him will likely sign him to a new contract. (He’s owed $1.392 million in 2011 but is a free agent in 2012.)

The good thing for the Cardinals, Seahawks and Dolphins is that Kolb’s trade market shrunk last weekend. The Titans (Jake Locker), Jaguars (Blaine Gabbert), Vikings (Christian Ponder), 49ers (Colin Kaepernick) and Bengals (Andy Dalton) all addressed their needs at quarterback in either the first or second round, so the odds just rose for Arizona, Seattle and Miami in terms of landing Kolb later this offseason. (Assuming there even is a “later this offseason.”)