When the ATP Tour quietly started earlier this year, many expected Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal to come out with a bang. The two superstars will battle all year to maintain the #1 rank. However, at an exhibition match in Abu Dhabi, fourth-ranked Andy Murray defeated Nadal. His exceptional play continued when, at the Tour’s first high-stakes tournament in Doha, Qatar, Andy Murray defeated both Federer and Andy Roddick to claim the prize. Neil Harman of Deuce has examined Murray’s potential dark horse run.

“Obviously, experience can help a lot,” he said. “You know, when I played Wimbledon for the first time, I had never played four sets in my life, never mind five. I think it’s understandable to be a bit tired, if you’re not used to doing something before. Then you understand that you need to work on things, but for me, I did start to work hard after that. But you have to respect your body as well. And I was still doing a lot of growing. You can’t push yourself too hard. It’s not good for your body. Now I’m starting to grow up, and finish growing and I can do more weights and train harder. It’s much easier to do all that stuff now. When you’re sort of 17 and 18, I think it’s tough on the body to push so hard.

A measure of his progress into the top four in the world is that no-one is the least surprised that it has happened; but there are those who did not think it would happen quite this quickly. From the very first, he and those who spent time assisting in his development asked us not to expect him to reach full maturity in both playing and physical terms until he was 23 or 24 and we are some way from that.

He chose, somewhat controversially, to write a book entitled Andy Murray, Hitting Back. I thought it was a poor choice of title because of the assumption that he had something, or someone, to hit back at, which made one feel slightly uncomfortable for a 21 year old to be bearing so much negative force. Having read the tome, it was more compelling than I had suspected, and offers a vivid insight into the young man and what drives him.

I like Andy Murray. I like Andy Murray because, when I watch him play, I think, that could be me. He looks like a wet rag out there — this tall and lanky 21 year-old dripping with sweat while clumsily bouncing around the court. Still, the kid has amazing placement and wins matches by tiring out his opponents after sending them every which way across the court. But this strategy does not win tournaments when your opponent figures out your style. Murray skillfully beat Rafael Nadal at the U.S. Open, but Roger Federer returned every difficult shot Murray delivered. Murray has been known to tire after three sets. With Federer in the lead going into the fourth, he made easy work of the young Murray.

This proclivity for early fatigue has kept Murray down. As the article points out, he has gone to great lengths with a new set of trainers to increase his stamina and improve his physique. In Qatar, he beat Federer in straight sets. While this is quite a feat, we’ve yet to see if Murray can go the distance against the top-ranked players. He’s capable of putting them away early, but when the match is neck and neck going in the final sets, Murray tends to waiver. As Federer and Nadal get more and more fed up with the Scotsman, they’ll have to adapt to Murray’s style rather than beating him with their own. This means matching him shot for shot with the hope that he will soon tire out by the fourth set. We’ll just have to wait and see if Murray’s rigorous fitness training has paid off.

Last year, we saw the emergence of Rafael Nadal as the best player in the game. This could be Murray’s year to make his mark, but he’s going to have to win a Grand Slam first. He has his chance at the Australian Open, which kicks off on January 19th.