It looks like I’m starting to inch closer to respectability with my NFL predictions. The Steelers, Chiefs and Broncos (by a small miracle) covered last week, while the Packers were a fourth-quarter dud against the Vikings.

That gave me a 3-1 Sunday for Week 7, which puts me at 13-15 on the year. I need one more 3-1 effort today to get me back to .500 and then I’ll really tear things up in the second half. Just you wait and see. Oh, just you wait and see.

Saints @ Rams, 1:00PM ET
After they dropped 62 points on the Colts last week, I’m sure public bettors have been racing to the window to take the over with the Saints today. The Rams have allowed the second-most points this year, just behind…yup, the Colts. But 48.5 points seems way too high for me, although I understand why oddsmakers have jacked up the total given the Saints’ offensive output last weekend. New Orleans plays things more conservatively on the road and I don’t see St. Louis helping cover the over with A.J. Feeley at the helm. I like the under.
THE PICK: UNDER 48.5

Dolphins @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
No matter how well Brandon Marshall tries to spin it, the Dolphins have checked out. Reggie Bush says the team stinks, while Yeremiah Bell says that Reggie Bush stinks. The funny part is that half the locker room seemingly agrees with Bush while the other half agrees with Bell. That’s not good for locker room dynamics and considering the Dolphins have to hit the road to face a well-rested New York squad, I like the G-Men to roll today. Of course, the last time I picked the Giants they lost outright to the Seahawks at home, which caused one of our loyal readers to request that I don’t pick them anymore. Sorry snd_dsr, but I’m going back to the well.
THE PICK: GIANTS –9.5

Lions @ Broncos, 4:05PM ET
The Lions are a complete mess and I get three points? Sign me up! Detroit is better than Denver but Detroit also has zero running game, its quarterback is banged up and its defense can’t stop the run. Oh, and they have to travel cross-country to play a team that seemingly has new life under Tim Tebow. For at least one more week I’m going to UNLEASH THE TEBOW!
THE PICK: Broncos +3

Bengals @ Seahawks, 4:15PM ET
Seattle’s quarterback situation is an abomination but no matter how ugly things can get for the Seahawks, they usually play well at home. Seattle is a tough environment for any quarterback to play in, nevertheless a rookie. Andy Dalton has certainly surpassed expectations to this point, but I think he’ll make a couple of big mistakes to cost the Bengals today. Seattle’s defense hasn’t played poorly this season and if their offense can muster double-digit points I think they win outright.
THE PICK: SEAHAWKS +1

Check out the most current NFL Football Betting odds.

Patriots @ Steelers, 4:15PM ET
This is an intriguing matchup not only because of the two teams but also due to the individual matches within the game. The Patriots arguably have the most efficient passing attack in the league, but they’ve struggled defending the pass for much of the season. Thanks to Ben Roethlisberger and the big-play ability of Pittsburgh’s receivers, the Steelers could strike for a long score at any point. I think this one will live up to the hype and with a whole slew of garbage matchups on the Week 8 schedule, I hope it does.

Cowboys @ Eagles, 8:20PM ET
It’s time to see how many of the Eagles’ problems Andy Reid was able to iron out over the bye week. Philadelphia looked great against Washington the week before its bye, but Dallas will provide a more difficult challenge than the Redskins did. DeMarco Murray is coming off a breakout game and the Eagles haven’t been able to stop the run all season. If Murray can get going again, the Cowboys have a chance to potentially put the nail in the coffin of their bitter rivals.

Lions @ Broncos, 4:05PM ET
The Lions have more pressing issues to worry about than whether or not Ndamukong Suh is a dirty player. Matthew Stafford (ankle) is hobbled, Jahvid Best (concussion) is out for another week and the defense can’t stop the run. The Broncos might not be the better overall team in this matchup but Tim Tebow has breathed new life into Denver and will be fired up to play at home. This will not be an easy road trip this weekend for the Lions.

Vikings @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
Rookie quarterbacks will be on display this Sunday in Carolina when the Panthers host the Vikings. Outside of the two interceptions he threw to Charles Woodson in the third quarter last week, the Vikings had to be pleased with Christian Ponder’s first professional start. If Minnesota wants to give Ponder an opportunity to notch his first win, then the Vikes better get Adrian Peterson revved up. Carolina’s run defense has been bad all year and it would be wise to keep Cam Newton on the bench considering how bad Minnesota’s pass defense is.

Chargers @ Chiefs, 8:30PM ET Monday
This matchup certainly got more interesting over the past few weeks. After starting the year 0-3 the Chiefs have rattled off three-straight and who can forget the beating they gave the Chargers on Monday night last season? Of course, they won’t have Jamaal Charles this time around but Jackie Battle is starting to come on as KC’s leading rusher. The Chargers’ offense was blanked in the second half last Sunday against the Jets, leading to speculation about whether or not Philip Rivers may be hurt. If he’s not, then it’s time for him to step up on Monday night in what has turned out to be a pretty big divisional game.

Jaguars @ Texans, 1:00PM ET
Blaine Gabbert has received most of the attention this year in Jacksonville, but it’s been the Jaguar defense that has stolen the show. They absolutely dominated the Ravens on Monday night and thanks to strong play out of linebackers Daryl Smith and Paul Posluszny, Jacksonville ranks sixth in yards allowed this season. The Jags’ defense will certainly be tested this weekend, especially if Andre Johnson returns from the hamstring injury that has held him out for nearly a month.

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Cincinnati Bengals owner Mike Brown reiterated on Thursday that he has no plays to trade disgruntled quarterback Carson Palmer.

“I don’t have anything more to say on that,” Brown told the media. “I’ve had my say on that, and it remains all there is to say.”

Following the team’s 4-12 season in 2010, Palmer requested a trade on January 23, 2011. Brown turned down the request almost immediately and Palmer retaliated by saying he’s prepared to retire if necessary. The veteran quarterback hasn’t filed his retirement papers with the league but he remains steadfast that he won’t play another down for the Bengals.

Cincinnati has seemingly found its quarterback of the future in 2011 second round pick Andy Dalton, who has compiled a 78.7 QB rating through five games this season. Thus, with the trade deadline coming up, many have speculated that the Bengals would be willing to move Palmer. Miami, Seattle and Indianapolis are all in need of a quarterback, so Cincinnati has trade partners if it eventually decides to deal the former USC product.

That said, Brown has made it perfectly clear that he is not willing to deal Palmer, who won’t become a free agent until 2015. If the trade deadline passes, the next chance Palmer has to get out of Cincinnati won’t be until March of 2012 when the new league year begins.

Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- There were certainly plenty of people who saw the Lions going down to Dallas and beating a sub par Cowboys team. But did anyone seem them getting down by 24 points and having to rally for the second straight week on the road? This team is legit and I can’t wait to see how they’ll fare in a couple weeks when they play the Packers. The best part about seeing the Lions go 4-0 is that I know Tom “Killer” Kowalski is watching somewhere. Killer had been the Lions beat writer for MLive.com over the last two decades before abruptly passing away in his home before the season started. Him and I worked together at WDFN in Detroit and while he’s greatly missed, there’s no way he’s missing Lions mania right now. They’re finally doing it, Killer…

- When I previewed Week 4 on Thursday I wrote about how Sunday’s trip to Cincinnati was going to be a good test for the Bills, even though they were playing a 1-2 Bengals team. I wrote that because the Bills were coming off an emotional win against the Patriots and now had to travel to play a team they were expected to beat. I even told my father that this was the day the Bills lose their first game. When they took a 17-3 lead I was ready to eat my words but in a blink of an eye, the Bengals were kicking a game-winning field goal to improve to 2-2 on the season. The Bills are a good young team but they’re not good enough to overlook any opponent.

- You know, it’s rather amazing. The lockout was supposed to hurt teams with new coaching staffs and yet the 49ers are 3-1 under Jim Harbaugh and could have very easily been 4-0 had they not collapsed against Dallas in Week 2. It’s a long season but what a great job he’s done so far making the transition from Stanford to the pros. When they were down 23-3 today in Philadelphia, the Niners could have easily packed it in. But they didn’t and I think that’s a testament to Harbaugh. What a great day for comebacks and what a great win for San Fran.

- Cam Newton almost threw for 400 yards again – and against Chicago, no less. I thought he would struggle against the Bears’ Tampa 2 and he did throw a pick-six early in the game. But man-oh-man is he an athletic marvel. At this point I guess I should stop including him in the “Didn’t See that Coming” section, but I continue to be amazed at what this kid can do so early in his career.

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Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- According to every NFL analyst in America, there was a better chance of Cam Newton putting his pants on backwards than resembling anything even close to a quarterback. But lo and behold the kid can play a little. He completed 24-of-37 passes for 422 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, setting a record for most passing yards in a NFL debut. He also rushed eight times for 18 yards and scored on the goal line in the Panthers’ 28-21 loss the Cardinals. Thanks to Newton, Steve Smith looked rejuvenated after spending a year in NFL hell last season. Obviously the former Auburn product isn’t going to throw for 400-plus yards every week but even his biggest critics have to be impressed with how he performed in his debut. And hey, the young man even put his pants on straight, too.

- The Steelers, the Falcons and the Chiefs: What are three teams who apparently forgot that the preseason was only four weeks long, Alex? Give credit where credit is due – the Ravens, Bears and Bills were dominate on Sunday. But it’s not like any of those teams used black magic to fool the Steelers, Falcons and Chiefs, who were absolutely shocked that they had to suit up today. Those three teams, who all won their divisions a year ago, mind you, managed to make flying to the moon look easier than playing football.

- Speaking of the Bills, this team isn’t a pushover any more. Forty-one points on the road? Good grief, man. Ryan Fitzpatrick is just good enough to be dangerous and they have some offensive weapons in Steve Johnson, Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Given how bad the offensive line looked in preseason, Chan Gailey has to be thrilled with his team’s performance. And the best part about the Bills today? They acted as if they expected that outcome. I dare say they were fun to watch.

- Not many people had the Bengals beating the Browns in Cleveland today, which is why they wind up in the “DIDN”T SEE THAT COMING” section. But I’m telling you, if Andy Dalton can play mistake free and just mange games in his first year, Cincinnati won’t be as bad as everyone expects.

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Andy Dalton hasn’t taken one meaningful snap yet in his NFL career and already his team may have concerns about whether or not he can get the job done.

According to Yahoo Sports’ Jason Cole, the Bengals “leaked” their interest in Carson Palmer coming out of retirement because they’re concerned about Dalton starting as a rookie. But as Rotoworld.com points out, this might just be speculation on Cole’s part and they’re probably right. After all, what difference does it make if they “leak” out that they’re interested in Palmer? It would make more sense if they were being coy about situation because then it wouldn’t look bad on their part that they’re not showing faith in Dalton. How do the Bengals help themselves by “leaking” this information out? Cole’s report makes zero sense.

But let’s assume for a moment that part of Cole’s report makes sense and that the Bengals fear Dalton isn’t ready. My question is: What did they expect? Dalton was a fine college quarterback but he didn’t exactly face the toughest competition at TCU and there were questions about his arm strength heading into the draft. They knew Palmer didn’t want anything to do with coming back and they should have known that Dalton was going to be a major project. Thus, they should have had option B in place in case Dalton struggled in preseason. Vince Young was available earlier this offseason, as was Matt Hasselbeck and now so is David Garrard. There’s no guarantee that Young or Hasselbeck would have come to Cincinnati but as far as I know the Bengals never tried to pursue them either. If I were them, I’d jump on the phone with Garrard’s agent before a team like the Colts beats them to the punch.

But if Garrard isn’t in their plans then I say the Bengals mush on with Dalton. He’s a rookie and he’s going to have his ups and downs. But if he learns on the job then maybe next year he’ll be better. And maybe the year after that he’ll turn the Bengals into a contender assuming they add pieces around him.

Or maybe the guy will be a total bust and never live up to anything in the NFL. Either way, the Bengals took this risk and now they might as well show their full support in the kid. After all, it’s not like they’ve left themselves with better options.

Predicting games in the NFL has become more difficult over the years with the emergence of parity in the NFL. The first couple of weeks always produce a number of shockers.

This year things should be even more unpredictable with the aftermath of the NFL lockout. You have a number of teams installing new systems, with other teams adding new quarterbacks. If you’re going to bet on the NFL in week 1, you’re going to have to watch developments in the preseason so see how different players and teams are responding to the changes. On the other hand, you also can’t put too much stock in the preseason. Hence the dilemma. But that also presents opportunities for astute observers.

Here are a couple of players and teams to keep an eye on:

Colt McCoy – He’s off to a great start in Cleveland. Cleveland is installing the West Coast offense, which typically takes a long time to master. Nobody will suggest that McCoy has “mastered” it after one preseason game, but it’s clear that he’s taking to the system, and that’s consistent with what experienced scouts thought about McCoy. He obviously has all the intangibles, and now he has an offense that is a closer match to his skill set.

Sam Bradford – Pat Shurmer is coaching McCoy this season in Cleveland, and last year Bradford excelled in Shurmer’s system. This season, however, Bradford gets a new system and coordinator with the arrival of Josh McDaniels. McDaniels has a good track record with quarterbacks, but we’ll have to see how Bradford adjusts. He didn’t get off to a great start in his first preseason game but there’s plenty of time.

The Bengals – This could be a disaster, as the Bengals might be going with rookie Andy Dalton. This kid has some ability, but jumping from TCU to the NFL is quite a leap. He wasn’t that great in his preseason debut, so we’ll have to see how he develops. The Bengals might be in the early running for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

The Redskins – This will be the real test of the Shanahan ego express. Who knows who will start, and we’ll see if the Shanahans are as smart as they think.

Donovan McNabb – Can he still play? Will he do better under coaches that give him a longer leash?

These are just some of the questions leading up to the season, so get to work! At least it’s more fun than reading up on labor issues . . .

Here are Jon Gruden’s QB Camp videos with Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett and Andy Dalton.

Cam Newton

Blaine Gabbert

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Despite a report a week ago that stated the Redskins were trying to move up in the first round, Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com writes that Washington is actually trying to trade down.

According to a league source, the Redskins are looking to trade down in the first round with the idea they will draft either Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder or TCU quarterback Andy Dalton.

The Redskins, who pick 10th overall, would like to get a second-round pick from a team in exchange for moving back to their spot in the first round. They could then use their two second-round picks to bolster the defense.

For a team that doesn’t have a third-round pick, this scenario makes a lot more sense than trying to trade up.

The X-factor here would be if Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert were to fall to them at the 10th spot. The Redskins would likely take him there, rather than trading back.

I share in Prisco’s thoughts exactly. Teams can’t trade 2012 draft picks without a CBA in place, so it would be difficult for a team like the Redskins to move up in the first round without having enough 2011 selections to make a deal. Besides, why would the Redskins want to sacrifice maybe first, second and fourth round selections to move up a couple of spots when they don’t have a third rounder? I get that if a team is in love with a player, you move up and get him. But the Redskins may wind up sacrificing their entire draft for one player if they traded up, which might not be worth it in the end.

It sounds like if Gabbert is there at N0. 10, the Skins will take him. If he doesn’t fall, then they could wait to see if Ponder or Dalton is there in the second or third. (Assuming of course that they trade down and acquire a third round pick.)

The quarterbacks performed throwing drills at the NFL scouting combine on Sunday and below are some quick-hit thoughts on how each of them fared. (Thank you NFL Network for broadcasting the scouting combine for those of us who are unable to go to Indianapolis, or have a restraining order that mandates we stay 500 yards away from Rich Eisen, whom all I wanted to do was party with.)

- For those that were concerned with the way the ball comes out of Cam Newton’s hand, there’s no need. Unlike Tim Tebow last year, Newton doesn’t have a flaw that needs to be fixed when it comes to his delivery, which is important seeing as how he played in the spread option under Gus Malzahn at Auburn.

- That said, Newton was awfully inconsistent on Sunday. His passes on the out route sailed on him and he also overthrew his receiver on one of his post-corner throws. His footwork is still a work in progress but hey, he’s learning. He has to transition from being a spread quarterback to a conventional drop back passer in the NFL, so it’s going to take time. At least at this point he has better mechanics than Tebow and Vince Young when they were preparing for the draft.

- Ryan Mallett was really impressive. He has a cannon attached to his right shoulder and the ball comes out of his hand rather effortlessly. He has the best physical tools of any quarterback in the draft and at 6’6” and 238 pounds, he has the size that scouts drool over. Of course, his physical tools have never been in question. His attitude and character are what some are concerned about. Personally, I think he has Oakland Raiders written all over him. He could thrive in a vertical offense and Al Davis can’t even spell character.

- Christian Ponder had himself a great day as well. He outshined Newton and all other quarterbacks in the second group, displaying very good accuracy and decent arm strength. I can’t see him going any higher than the third round, but he looked healthy and confident on Sunday. Depending on what team he winds up with, he could be a player to watch in a couple of years.

- For those who followed him at Washington, it’s not surprising that Jake Locker ran one of the fastest 40 times (4.52 seconds) of any quarterback in combine history. The guy was blessed with a ton of athleticism and he looked good throwing the ball, which had been a concern heading into the combine. He was a little inconsistent with his accuracy when throwing the dig route, but it’s hard to complain about his performance. Of course, most quarterbacks perform well when there are no defenders in their face. When teams watch film of him from last year, there will be plenty to pick apart.

- Ricky Stanzi, Jerrod Johnson and Andy Dalton all struggled with their accuracy. I don’t think anyone is surprised with Johnson, but I thought Dalton would put on a better performance. Of course, where he wins teams over is with his leadership, his football IQ and his instincts. You can’t measure those things in throwing drills. I will say this about Stanzi though: the kid throws a nice deep ball (at least when he’s not facing any DBs).