The Best in Class: Andrew Luck, Stanford
There are many scouts who are intrigued by Robert Griffin III’s skill set and natural feel for the game, so there will be plenty of people suggesting that Griffin should be the first signal caller off the board in April. But “pound for pound” Luck is still the top quarterback prospect in this draft, if not the top all-around prospect, period. What impresses me most about Luck is his pocket awareness. He anticipates pressure and reacts to it instead of looking for it at the snap. He also keeps his eyes down the field, which is an attribute that all of the elite NFL quarterbacks posses. He goes through his progressions well, displays sound footwork, and has a better arm than people give him credit for. He’s also extremely bright, as evidence of his ability to call plays at the line of scrimmage in Stanford’s offense, and you rarely see him get frazzled. At this point Luck looks like a safe bet at the top of the draft, which is saying a lot considering the position he plays.

The Challenger: Robert Griffin III, Baylor
It appears that the Colts are set on taking Luck with the No. 1 overall pick but Griffin has plenty of time to change their minds. A smart, savvy player with the ability to create using his arm or his legs, Griffin has improved as a passer every year he’s been at Baylor. He has very good arm strength and can fit the ball into tight windows at the second level. He’s also a natural athlete with a high ceiling and plenty of room to grow if a team surrounds him with the right coaching staff. The main knock on Griffin is that he isn’t comfortable taking snaps from under center and isn’t particularly strong at reading the blitz at the snap. But he seems more “boom” than “bust” and certainly has the attention of fans in Cleveland.

Don’t Sleep On: Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
Weeden isn’t drawing the same attention as Luck, Griffin, or even Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill. But at 6-foot-4 with a big, accurate arm, Weeden is worth a long look for quarterback-needy teams looking to either move up into the late first round or early second. His age (28) might scare teams away but the fact remains that he has all of the physical attributes and intangibles that pro teams look for in a quarterback. There are some concerns about his inconsistency and he has a habit of forcing throws into coverage, but he could be a perfect fit for teams like the Jets, Seahawks or Broncos.

Mid-Round Sleeper: Ryan Lindley, San Diego State
The biggest knock on Lindley is that he needs to improve his overall footwork and coordination inside the pocket. Thus, this isn’t a prospect that a team can plug into their offense and have him start in year one or two. But at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, Lindley looks the part and has very good arm strength. He can make all of the throws at the next level and is an accurate passer. He would be perfect for a team that already has its starter in place but is looking to groom a developmental quarterback for down the line (i.e. the Giants, Falcons or Packers).

Based on some of the comments coming out of Indianapolis these days, it would appear as though Peyton Manning’s career with the Colts is coming to an end.

Such as life. Times change, people separate, memories fade. Why should sports be any different?

According to ESPN NFL Business Analyst Andrew Brandt, it would cost the Colts $50.5 million to keep Manning and Andrew Luck on the same roster in 2012. Manning’s option is $28 million in addition to a $7.4 million salary while the No. 1 overall pick will receive approximately $15.1 million in bonus plus salary in 2012. Thus, it doesn’t make sense financially for the Colts to pay Manning and draft Luck while trying to fill holes all over a depleted roster.

It doesn’t make sense from a risk/reward standpoint either. Manning is 35 and is still trying to recover from neck surgery that he had last May. I’m not a doctor but when you listen to other athletes talk about the same nerve damage that Manning has, it’s feasible that he could have complications the rest of his career. That’s why there’s still plenty of speculation about whether or not he’ll ever play again.

I’m not trying to be cold because I’m very aware of what Manning has meant to the Colts franchise over these past 14 seasons. But former Giants GM Ernie Accorsi said it best when he stated that he would rather be accused of getting rid of a player a year too early rather than a year too late. This is a business decision and the right business decision for the Colts is to part ways with Manning and draft their future signal caller while they have that chance. There are teams like the Browns, Dolphins, Bills and Redskins who continuously fail to address their quarterback situation and the Colts have a golden opportunity to replace one franchise signal caller with another in just one fell swoop. Cold? Probably. But smart? Definitely.

Let’s not overlook the fact that this could be a good thing for Manning as well. During John Elway’s final years he essentially took a backseat to Terrell Davis because the Broncos became Davis’ team. He won two Super Bowls handing the ball off to Davis and throwing when he had to, but Manning doesn’t have that same fortune. The Colts proved last year that they’re a serious rebuilding project. At this point in his career, Manning shouldn’t be at the helm of a rebuilding team: he should be trying to take one more shot at winning a Super Bowl just like Elway did. (Assuming of course that Manning is healthy enough to ever pick up a football again.)

In a perfect world the Colts would already have Manning’s replacement on their roster. But they don’t, and now this is the situation that they find themselves in. Separations are never easy and if the Colts do decide to move on from Manning, it will be a hard decision. But it doesn’t have to be difficult.

Times change, people separate, memories fade. That’s just life.

It now seems obvious that the Colts will be parting ways with Peyton Manning. Anything can happen at this point, but Peyton’s recent interview made it pretty clear that he wasn’t a part of the new direction in Indianapolis. You can’t blame them, as they will have Andrew Luck and they would need to pay Peyton a king’s ransom to stick around. The team needs to be rebuilt, and keeping Peyton just delays the process.

The NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora makes a pretty good case that Arizona and Seattle are the two most likely spots.

There will be plenty of time to discuss whether or not the Indianapolis Colts should draft Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the No. 1 overall pick.

Plenty of nauseating time.

But for now, here’s the official order for the 2012 NFL Draft, minus the 12 playoff teams, that is. I’ll keep this list updated throughout the postseason so you’ll know exactly where your team will be selecting come April.

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14)
2. St. Louis Rams (2-14)
3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13)
4. Cleveland Browns (4-12)
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
6. Washington Redskins (5-11)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
8. Carolina Panthers (6-10)*
9. Miami Dolphins (6-10)*
10. Buffalo Bills (6-10)
11. Seattle Seahawks (7-9)**
12. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)**
13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
14. Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8)
16. New York Jets (8-8)
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland)
18. San Diego Chargers (8-8)
19. Chicago Bears (8-8)
20. Tennessee Titans (9-7)

* – Order will be decided by coin flip at the scouting combine in February.

By this time in most college football seasons, we know who is winning the Heisman Trophy. Not this year, however, as there are several contenders that are still very much in the race.

After today’s games, nobody separated themselves from the field, and nobody fell out. It’s been that kind of year.

Here’s a look at how I would vote if the Heisman Trust ever decided to give a vote to a guy who writes two posts a week on a blog:

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford: What’s that you say, this is a cop out? I say nonsense. Luck has had a great year statistically leading a Stanford team that doesn’t have a single wide receiver who will play a significant role in the NFL. He’s doing this with tight ends, people, which makes it more impressive. Yes, the offensive line is great, and yes, he had a bad day against Oregon. Although I’d argue his bad day against Oregon had a lot more to do with not having receivers. And it wasn’t really all that bad. He had a big-time performance against Notre Dame today, but it wasn’t enough to really distance himself.

2. Trent Richardson, Alabama: He’s the best player in college football, but his performance against LSU might hurt him. Nobody does anything against LSU, but for a lot of voters and viewers, that was one of their few times seeing him play. He went off in the Iron Bowl today, but that’s a bad Auburn defense, and there was very little hype around that game, despite the fact Gameday was there.

3. Matt Barkley, USC: I fear voters will ignore Barkley because of USC’s probation, but he’s been ridiculous this year. As I write this, Barkley is destroying UCLA. Sure, that’s not that awesome, considering it’s UCLA, but he’s done it to most defense. Barkley and the Trojans got off to a slow start, which is probably what’s hurting him more than anything, because anyone that has followed the Heisman knows it’s all about getting your name in early and maintaining.

4. Robert Griffin III, Baylor: He might have lost his chance at this award tonight. Not because of the injury, because that’s well out of his hands. But his backup, Nick Florence came in and went nuts, and I have a feeling people are looking for any reason to not give this award to a player from Baylor. Don’t get me wrong, without Griffin, Baylor certainly isn’t in the Top 25, but he struggled against a suspect Oklahoma State defense, and that’s the game that will be weighed with his performance against Oklahoma. OK, who am I kidding, the Oklahoma game wins out.

5. Tyrann Mathieu, LSU: He won’t win it because of the suspension, but if Richardson is the nation’s best player, he’s the second, and it’s pretty close. Mathieu proved again Friday with a punt return touchdown against Arkansas that he impacts the game more than any defensive player in the country. Plus, he has the nation’s best nickname: Honey Badger.

- December 25th – mark it down. That’s the day the Bears get their rematch with the Packers and it’s going to be a spectacle to watch. There might not be a team playing with more confidence right now than Chicago, which hasn’t lost since its ugly effort in Detroit on Monday Night Football back in early October. Jay Cutler didn’t light the stat sheet on fire today but he made big plays all day. And his lone mistake (an interception to Antoine Cason), wasn’t a mistake at all because Johnny Knox slipped on the play. Besides, the Bear defense picked off Philip Rivers in the end zone on the next possession, basically nullifying Cason’s interception. With guys like Cutler, Matt Forte and Devin Hester, as well as a physical, unrelenting defense, the Bears look playoff ready…

…whoops! Talk about timing. About a millisecond after writing that paragraph I saw a report that Jay Cutler’s season might be over due to a fractured right throwing thumb. If that’s the case, then the Bears could be finished. Caleb Hanie has had his moments, such as leading Chicago to a touchdown on his first series against Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game last year. But as B.J. Raji’s interception in that same game can attest to, Hanie is also very inexperienced. If Cutler is indeed out (he’ll undergo more tests on Monday), then his injury dramatically changes the Bears’ offense (and season, for that matter).

- The Falcons would be foolish not to keep Matt Ryan in the no-huddle from here on out. Atlanta ran its no-huddle almost exclusively today in its 23-17 victory over the Titans and Ryan had is second-highest QB rating of the season (110.9), threw for over 300 yards for only the fourth time all year, and didn’t throw an interception for only the third time in 10 games. While they did have issues inside the red zone (they settled for three field goals and Michael Turner coughed the ball up once to allow Tennessee to get back into the game), the Falcons only punted twice in the victory. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey has been hesitant to run the no-huddle on a full-time basis but it’s the offense that Ryan is clearly most comfortable running.

- Jake Locker showed why he was once considered a slam-dunk No. 1 overall draft pick. Matt Hasselbeck has done a fantastic job managing games for Tennessee this year but Locker sparked a punchless offense and nearly brought the Titans back from 20 points down in the second half. He only completed 9-of-19 passes but those nine completions went for 140 yards and two touchdowns. He also picked up a first down with an 11-yard rush on a third-and-long and showed good zip on most of his passes. Mike Munchak already backed Hasselbeck as the starter in his post-game press conference but with Matt Schaub now out for the year in Houston, it might be time for Tennessee to roll the dice with the kid. Locker was fun to watch today.

- I watched Chris Johnson very closely today and from my point of view, there’s nothing wrong with him. He just doesn’t have anywhere to run as Tennessee’s run blocking is abysmal. Atlanta’s run defense is very sound but Johnson was bottled up almost immediately after receiving the hand off.

- Blaine Gabbert threw for 210 yards and didn’t turn the ball over in the Jaguars’ 14-10 loss to the Browns. He also threw a perfectly placed ball that Jason Hill couldn’t haul in with three seconds remaining in the game that could have won it for Jacksonville. But Gabbert’s overthrow to a wide-open (and I mean WIDE-OPEN) Hill in the end zone with just under seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter really cost Jacksonville a huge opportunity to tie the game at 14-14. Those are the types of plays that Gabbert hasn’t been making all season. Now, he’s only a rookie and deserves time to develop. But I firmly believe that Jacksonville screwed up by releasing David Garrard and forcing Gabbert onto the field before he was ready. The kid should be holding a clipboard right now.

- I’m sorry, I know a win is a win and they very well could wind up being tied for first in the NFC East before the night is over (the Giants are currently losing to the Eagles as I type). But that was not a very impressive win by the Cowboys today. The Redskins’ offense has been putrid for over a month and the Cowboys were one 52-yard field goal by Graham Gano away from losing. Jason Witten and Tony Romo made some great plays today and hey, divisional games are usually close. But count me among the people who keep waiting for the ‘Boys to put together that signature win and yet, it still hasn’t come. I picked the Cowboys to win the NFC East this year so I’m not surprised that they’re 6-4. It’s just not a very impressive 6-4 to me.

- Andy Dalton made some big mistakes today, which included throwing three interceptions and being flagged for intentional grounding on the Bengals’ final possession. But it’s clear that he and Cincinnati have a very bright future. This was a team that was without its best offensive playmaker (A.J. Green) and its top cornerback (Leon Hall) and still hung with the Ravens on their home field. On paper, Baltimore should have cruised to victory and it almost did. But thanks to Dalton and the Bengals’ perseverance, they had a chance to at least tie the game in the closing minutes. Assuming Dalton doesn’t go backwards from here, I see no reason why the Bengals won’t continue to challenge the Ravens and the Steelers in the AFC North.

- It was good to see Cam Cameron let it rip today. Sometimes the Ravens’ offense looks like a Ferrari but drives like a Pinto. Joe Flacco took a couple of deep shots, Ray Rice was heavily involved and Torrey Smith (6 receptions, 165 yards, 1 TD) had a breakout performance. Speaking of Smith, if he maintains his confidence week in and week out, he’s going to be a star in this league. That 49-yard catch that he hauled in today was a thing of beauty.

- If I’m a Lions fan I’m ecstatic that my team scored 49 points as Matthew Stafford threw for five touchdowns and Kevin Smith rushed for 140 yards and two scores. But I would be extremely concerned about the number of times they’ve had to stage a big comeback because they’ve dug themselves a huge hole in the first half. Three of the Lions’ seven wins this year (Dallas, Minnesota and Carolina) have come after they’ve fallen behind by 20 points or more and while it’s impressive that they’ve been able to persevere, it would be more impressive if they figured out a way to play four quarters more consistently. Because this is obviously a very dangerous team when they’re firing on all cylinders.

- Cam Newton is extremely fun to watch and he’s making a lot of pundits look very stupid for doubting him (and the Panthers for that matter) back in April. That said, he certainly helped his team lose today. Carolina’s defense turned in a brutal second-half effort against Detroit but Newton’s inaccuracy was a major issue as well. He often missed high to his receivers and wound up throwing four interceptions in the loss. Recklessness simply can’t be a part of his game.

- Kellen Winslow (9 receptions, 132 yards, 1 TD) had a monster game but he cost the Bucs’ twice in their 35-26 loss to the Packers. First he was flagged for an obvious pass interference call in the end zone on a third-and-3 from the Packers’ 4-yard-line, which led to a Tampa Bay field goal instead of a potential touchdown early in the third quarter. Then he dropped a pass on a two-point conversation attempt that would have tied the game at 21-21 early in the fourth. Granted, the Bucs’ defense couldn’t come up with that one big stop in the fourth but they were also trailing by nine points virtually that entire quarter because of Winslow’s mistakes. Still, Tampa certainly gave Green Bay all it could handle. There are no moral victories but the Bucs finally showed some punch on offense (including LeGarrette Blount’s unbelievable touchdown run).

- All of those weapons on offense and the Packers’ first two touchdowns today came on a 1-yard B.J. Raji run and a Tom Crabtree five-yard reception, respectively. As if opposing defenses don’t have enough to worry about when it comes to Green Bay, now they have to try and tackle 337 pounds of B.J. Raji and defend some guy named Tom Crabtree.

- Want to know the biggest reason why the previously 0-7 Dolphins have won three games in a row? Try the fact that they haven’t allowed a touchdown in 12 quarters now. Miami’s defense absolutely stifled the Bills today, allowing just 41 rushing yards in a 35-8 rout. They also stuffed Buffalo at the goal line early in the fourth quarter and intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick twice. And who needs Andrew Luck? Matt Moore has thrown six touchdowns in his last three games.

- Somebody stick a fork in the Bills because they’re done. They made believers out of a lot of people earlier in the year but they’ve looked absolutely horrendous the last three weeks. Do you think the front office is regretting signing Ryan Fitzpatrick to that extension? He signed his new deal on October 28, beat the Redskins two days later and hasn’t won since.

- His play is indicative of a rookie quarterback but Christian Ponder is absolutely maddening to watch sometimes. One minute he’s using his athleticism to make a big throw downfield and the next he’s literally throwing the ball directly to a defender (see his interception to Stanford Routt in the fourth quarter today). He did extremely well to lead the Vikings from 20 points down against the Raiders without Adrian Peterson (who left the game early with an injury), but Ponder made some really bad decisions. Again, this is what you expect out of a rookie but he’s liable to make Leslie Frazier and Bill Musgrave insane.

- Some teams don’t have one capable starter at running back and Oakland has two. It must be nice when Darren McFadden goes down with an injury to have Michael Bush step in and take his place. Bush has lifted the Raiders into sole possession of first place in the AFC West the past two weeks. Of course, it also doesn’t hurt that the Chargers are absolutely imploding.

- Perhaps the most impressive thing about Jim Harbaugh is not the fact that he has gotten Alex Smith to play well or that the Niners’ defense is one of the best in the league. Albeit, those things are impressive but not nearly as impressive as the focus and discipline that he’s instilled in this San Francisco team. The Niners were a talented squad under Mike Singletary but the problem was that he was completely overmatched as a football tactician. And because he was so overmatched both on and off the field, his team began falling apart at the seams. But under Harbaugh, the Niners have played sound football, don’t beat themselves and not once have they been caught looking ahead. With a Thanksgiving Day matchup with his brother’s Ravens coming up in just four days, Harbaugh and the Niners could have easily overlooked Arizona today. Instead, they nearly shut the Cardinals out. Again, under Harbaugh they’ve been highly impressive.

- Considering how brutal their schedule was in the first half and the amount of injuries they’ve had to suffer through (particularly in the defensive backfield), it’s not surprising to see the Rams sitting with only two wins. That said, that’s a pitiful football team they have in St. Louis and if Billy Devaney doesn’t have a better offseason than the one he did this past year, the Rams will continue to lose. Devaney better find some gems in next year’s draft; I’m talking about finding a couple of guys that can make an impact right away or else both he and Steve Spagnuolo will be out of jobs very soon.

- I just can’t wrap my head around the play of Philip Rivers this year. This can’t be the same guy who almost single-handedly kept the Chargers in the playoff hunt last year without his top two playmakers. It just can’t. The interception he threw at the end of the game to Corey Graham was one of the worst throwaway attempts I’ve ever seen. And this came after Major Wright picked him off earlier in the quarter when San Diego’s defense put the Chargers in great field position with an interception of their own. Brutal. Philip Rivers has been brutal this year.

It’s November, and predicting college games in November is akin to jamming your hand down a garbage disposal with a ring on each finger.

In other words, it can be a bloody mess of a situation.

Sorry for the graphic nastiness. I’m just a little salty after going 1-3 last week, which dropped my season record to 24-18-2. That’s not bad overall but when you consider I haven’t had a winning week in a while, I’m a little on edge. (I’ve had plenty of .500 weeks, but a push is not a win, my friends.)

The hook screwed me in the Nebraska-Penn State game while Illinois was thumped at home by Michigan and Nevada couldn’t cover the digits against Hawaii. Louisiana Tech was an easy winner at Ole Miss, but a 1-3 record isn’t going to do it. Unless, of course, you name your prediction column “Fade Material.” Then you’re covered either way. (See, smart, huh?)

On to this week’s nastiness…

Nebraska @ Michigan, 12:00PM ET
I think the Huskers are a pile of inconsistent dirty diapers. One week they hold Michigan State to only a field goal and then come out the following Saturday and lose to Northwestern at home. Then they build a 17-0 lead on Penn State only to keep the Nittany Lions in it until the very end. My point is, I don’t trust Nebraska. I don’t know what I’m getting in Nebraska. I know what I’m getting in Michigan. They can’t throw the ball but Denard Robinson is going to make plays and the Wolverines have been unbeatable at home this year. The hook scares the hell out of me after what happened last week at Happy Valley but I’m going to roll the dice anyway with the home favorite.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN –3.5

Oklahoma @ Baylor, 8:00PM ET
The Sooners are done losing this year (at least in the regular season) and they clearly are out to prove that they’re still national-title worthy. The last time these two teams met was in Waco last year, where Oklahoma rolled to a 53-24 victory. I expect more of the same this year from Landry Jones and Co. Robert Griffin III is a nice player but I trust Oklahoma’s defense to stop Baylor’s explosive offense way more than I trust the Bears to slow down the Sooners.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA –15

USC @ Oregon, 8:00PM ET
When I first saw this line I said, “Wow, 14.5 points? USC has more than enough talent to hang with Oregon and cover that spread.” Then I remembered how badly the Ducks took it to the Trojans in Southern Cal last year and one of the many unwritten rules of college football betting: Never go against Oregon in Eugene. I think I’m 0-42 either with or against the Ducks this season, but I like them tonight. Matt Barkley will keep things close at first but Oregon is just too explosive on its home turf.
THE PICK: OREGON –14.5

Cal @ Stanford, 10:15PM ET
With the way Andrew Luck and Co. lost last Saturday to Oregon, I think it’ll take them a quarter or two to shake off the bad vibes. Cal is a very imperfect team but its more than capable of hanging with the Cardinal if Stanford comes out in a fog. Call this one a hunch, but I like the Golden Bears to stay within a touchdown or two of the Cardinal.
THE PICK: CAL +17.5

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.