I wrote yesterday that Andre Miller likes to play at a fast pace. That apparently applies to his contract negotiations as well. He has agreed to sign a deal to play in Portland.

Miller’s contract is a three-year deal worth $21 million, with $14 million guaranteed and $7 million included as a third-year team option, sources close to the process said.

Portland made a strong push for the Knicks’ David Lee, but the two teams couldn’t come to terms on a sign-and-trade, and the Blazers didn’t want to sign Lee to an offer sheet and miss out on Miller, since New York would have seven days to match the offer. (I still find it ridiculous that teams get a full week to match an offer for one of their restricted free agents. The players association should negotiate that down to two or three business days in the next collective bargaining agreement. It would spur more offers and more competition, which is good for everyone.)

John Hollinger says that Miller is a questionable fit.

Sure, there are some ways this doesn’t exactly fit. Miller does a lot of damage in the post, and the Blazers already have a couple of players (Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge) occupying those slots fairly regularly. He’s also an up-tempo guard on what was the league’s second-slowest-paced team last season, and his inability to make 3s is an odd fit with the Blazers’ habit of spacing the floor with shooters around Brandon Roy.

He goes on to discuss the Blazers’ other options, or lack thereof, as well as the trickery that teams are using to circumvent the salary cap. It’s an interesting read, but you’ll need to be an Insider to see it.

Per ESPN…

The Portland Trail Blazers have offered point guard Andre Miller a three-year contract after failing in their efforts to acquire New York Knicks restricted free agent David Lee, sources close to the process said Friday.

Miller’s contract would be worth $21 million, with $14 million guaranteed and $7 million included as a third-year team option, a source said.

So from the team’s perspective, this is actually a two-year deal for a total of $14 million.

On paper, Miller seems to be good fit for a Portland team that is lacking above average play at the point guard position. But the Blazers’ plan has always been to surround Brandon Roy with four shooters, and Miller is most definitely not a shooter. Still, his overall field goal percentage (47%) is good for a guard, and it’s not like he stands out behind the arc jacking threes. (He only takes 0.6 threes per game.)

The other issue is the pace at which Miller thrives — he likes it fast. But the Blazers like to slow the game down, as evidenced by their pace, which is the second-slowest in the league. Are the Blazers planning to speed the tempo up or do they hope to slow Miller down?

Keep in mind that this is only an offer; Miller was looking for a deal averaging $10 million, so he could reject it (though I don’t expect that he will). If the Blazers do manage to sign him, it will probably increase the chances that the Knicks extend an offer to Ramon Sessions, since they were the other team talking to Miller.

After Hedo Turkoglu decided to play for the Raptors and after the Jazz made it clear that they’d match the Blazers’ offer sheet to Paul Millsap, we all wondered what Portland’s Plan C would be. Apparently, it’s Andre Miller.

A deal is not imminent, but there has been progress made toward resolving Miller’s status, according to a source with knowledge of the discussions.

The Blazers have been looking to upgrade at point guard but didn’t get very far in talks with Dallas guard Jason Kidd (who re-signed with the Mavericks) or Phoenix’s Steve Nash (who agreed to a two-year, $22 million extension with the Suns on Monday). Portland was not looking hard at Miller because the Blazers thought they needed to add someone to the roster with more perimeter shooting skills than the 33-year-old. But with $7.7 million in cap room and a dwindling number of free agents available, Miller may be Portland’s last best chance to bring in a veteran player that can help its young core.

For now, according to a source, the Blazers do not have any interest in Lakers free agent forward Lamar Odom, whose negotiations with Los Angeles on a new contract have stalled.

I’ve been hearing all summer how Miller is a poor fit for the Blazers given their overall pace (29th in the league) and desire to surround Brandon Roy with as many shooters as possible. (Miller is a career 21% three-point shooter.) So the Blazers’ sudden interest is surprising.

While Odom doesn’t represent the kind of toughness the Blazers want to add to their front line, Portland is uniquely positioned to wrest him away from Los Angeles, which would serve a big blow to the Lakers’ chances of winning another title.

Portland could work with Miami to help the Heat facilitate a trade for Carlos Boozer. Udonis Haslem is a good, hard-nosed player who can shoot the ball, and while he’s not truly starter-caliber, he’d be a nice guy to have on the bench.

Or they could go after Boozer themselves, if they can get the Jazz to answer their calls after trying to steal Millsap away earlier this month.

If the Blazers aren’t worried about having a point guard that can shoot, they should go after Ramon Sessions, who is just as productive as Miller, but 10 years his junior and quite a bit cheaper.

Carlos Boozer wants to play in Miami.

The two-time NBA All-Star said Monday that he and the Jazz have “mutually agreed” to a trade, and it would be “a beautiful thing” if he wound up reunited with Olympic teammate Dwyane Wade on the Heat.

“We first came here for tax reasons and fell in love with it,” Boozer said, taking a break from his campers. “We love the palm trees, the laid-back attitude, the sun, quality of life. It’s like paradise here, and I would love to be part of the Heat. They’re a very good team, and I’m real close to some of the guys. Dwyane and I started to get close at the Athens Olympics in 2004, and I’d love to play on his team. Plus, I already live here. I’m just waiting to see what happens.”

The Heat have a few trade chips, but when considering Boozer, who is in the final year of his contract, the Jazz aren’t going to want to take only expiring salaries in a trade. They might as well keep him for the year and hope they can make some noise in the playoffs.

Udonis Haslem is a good player, but he’s in the final year of his deal. Would Miami be willing to part with Michael Beasley? Would Jerry Sloan even want him? Miami may need to get a third team involved to facilitate this deal.

Read the rest of this entry »

It would seem so…

The Atlanta Journal-Consitution first reported Tuesday that Bibby and the Hawks had a three-year agreement for about $18 million, according to sources.

Falk said Bibby and other free agents have found “the market is extremely conservative this year for free agents, compared to last year.”

“A number of teams had interest in him … but I think Mike was comfortable in the environment” with the Hawks, Falk said.

I’m not sure what Falk is talking about when he says that the market is “extremely conservative” after the Pistons invested $19 million per season in Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva and Toronto is doing everything it can to give Hedo Turkoglu the $10 million per season that he’s asking for. Bibby’s market value is about the mid-level and that’s essentially what he signed for.

It looked like Bibby’s days in Atlanta were numbered when the Hawks traded for Jamal Crawford and drafted Jeff Teague, but Crawford is better off the ball and Teague needs to develop, so it makes sense to keep Bibby around for a couple more years. He played well last season, so hopefully for Hawks fans he can repeat that performance now that he’s not in a contract year.

It will be interesting to see how this contract affects Andre Miller’s negotiations. Miller is two years older and has been asking for a contract starting around $10 million per season, but I don’t think he’s going to get it. I think his floor is around the mid-level.

Pistons, Blazers interested in Hedo Turkoglu.

The Oregonian reports Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard and assistant general manager Tom Penn called agent Lon Babby last night to begin the courtship of Hedo Turkoglu.

With Carlos Boozer out of the picture, an NBA source tells the Chicago Sun-Times that Turkoglu is now the Pistons’ first choice in free agency.

While the Blazers’ interest has long been rumored, Detroit’s interest is a little surprising. They already have a very good small forward on the roster in Tayshaun Prince, so unless they’re planning to play Turkoglu at the four, someone is going to lose some minutes. Of the two teams, the Pistons have more cap space, so if they want him, they can get him. (And what about Ben Gordon?)

Charlie V ahead of Turkoglu on the Pistons’ wishlist?

Chicago’s Ben Gordon remains the backcourt player deeply coveted by the Pistons, but the prospect of a Gordon-and-Villanueva combo likely would be slightly cheaper than trying to sign Gordon and Turkoglu with Detroit’s nearly $19 million in projected salary-cap space.

The Pistons may also be interested in Paul Millsap, but anytime a team signs a restricted free agent to an offer sheet, that money is tied up for a week while his current team decides to match. That makes signing an RFA a dicey prospect.

I wonder if the Bucks are regretting letting Villanueva given the amount of interest he’s generating from their division rivals (Detroit and Cleveland).

Read the rest of this entry »

Pistons not willing to pony up for Boozer?

The Pistons would love to sign Carlos Boozer should he decide today to opt out of the final year of his contract with the Jazz and become a free agent.

However, if Boozer opts out, he would leave $12.6 million on the table in Utah. Thus, there is a good chance Boozer, as has been widely speculated, would look to start his next contract at $14 million or $15 million.

If that is the case, the Pistons most likely would walk away.

Just because a guy asks for a contract starting at $14-$15 million doesn’t mean that the Pistons have to give it to him. If Boozer opts out, the Pistons are his most likely landing spot, so they set the market, not him. If he wants an unreasonable deal, they shouldn’t walk away, they should make an offer and give him some time to find a better one. Chances are that he won’t, and he’ll end up taking Detroit’s deal.

Assuming Boozer does not dramatically reduce his asking price, the Pistons would go after Bucks forward Charlie Villanueva.

Villanueva will turn 25 in August and is coming off his best season. He averaged 16.2 points and 6.7 rebounds for the Bucks.

The Pistons could conceivably sign Gordon and Villanueva and still have money left over to pursue re-signing Antonio McDyess.

I estimate Gordon’s value to be about $9 million, though he has turned down bigger offers from the Bulls in the past. Villanueva will probably get lots of MLE offers, so the Pistons would likely have to trump those to convince him to play in Detroit instead of Cleveland (or for another contender). So if Detroit signs both, expect them to pay at least $15.5-$16.0 million combined. That doesn’t leave a lot of space for McDyess.

Read the rest of this entry »

Once the draft is over, the next step of the NBA offseason is the free agency period. Negotiations start July 1, but players have to wait until July 8 to actually sign on the dotted line. Due to the economy, this promises to be an interesting summer, as more franchises seem to be trying to cut payroll than add talent. There are eight teams with significant cap space this summer, and there’s no guarantee that they’ll be willing to use it. Teams that are over the cap can add good players in two ways: 1) they can sign a player to the Mid-Level Exception (MLE), which will be around $5.8 million per season (and can be split up between two or more players), or 2) they can work out a sign-and-trade with the player’s old team.

Below is a list of the top unrestricted free agents this summer. These are players who can sign with whomever they like. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign.

1. Carlos Boozer, PF (27 years-old)
PER: 17.28
At press time, Boozer hasn’t officially opted out, but he is expected to. He can play another year for $12.3 million, but he thinks he’s due for a raise, and I don’t think he’s going to get the kind of raise he’s expecting. Boozer is one of the top 20 players in the league when healthy, but it’s that whole “when healthy” part that’s the problem. Over the past five seasons, he has missed a third of his team’s games. At 27, he’s in his prime, and assuming he has the right supporting cast, I think he can be one of a twosome or threesome on a championship-caliber team. Boozer may not get a raise this summer, but he could get long-term security. The Pistons, Raptors, Kings and Thunder all have the space to make a run at him, but Sacramento and OKC might consider themselves too far away from contending to add a big piece like Boozer. The Pistons seem like the best fit, but they are rumored to have more interest in Ben Gordon. There’s always the possibility that another team works out a sign-and-trade with Utah, but I don’t think anyone is going to give him a max deal, not in this economy.
Value: $12.0 – $13.0 million per year

Read the rest of this entry »

- Charlie Villanueva is open to joining the Cavs, and given the current state of the economy, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the best he’ll be able to do is a deal at the mid-level (~$5.8 million). The Bucks first have to decide whether or not to make the qualifying offer (~$4.6 million) and they may elect not to in order to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold (~$71 million, and could drop). Without Villanueva (and Ramon Sessions, who is also slated to become a restricted free agent), the Bucks’ payroll is at about $61 million with only eight players under contract. Villanueva would give the Cavs a good matchup for Rashard Lewis. Both players are slender power forwards who can shoot the ball, though Charlie V isn’t known for his defense.

- UFA Andre Miller doesn’t have a problem with the Sixers’ hire of head coach Eddie Jordan. The Sixers are over the cap but well under the luxury tax, so I’d expect them to sign the 33 year-old to a one- or two-year deal in the $6-7 million range. He is unlikely to get that on the open market, but Portland is a team with cap space that could use his leadership.

- Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo plans to keep Chris Bosh and try to surround him with better players, unless the talented power forward expresses serious doubts about re-signing. By sending Jermaine O’Neal to the Heat for Shawn Marion (and his expiring contract), the Raptors have about $10 million in cap space heading into the summer. While that may not be enough to land someone like Carlos Boozer, it is enough, coupled with the team’s mid-level exception, to add two or three pretty good players to the roster. How about Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva/Chris Andersen? I’d expect the Bosh rumors to heat up next season if Toronto struggles again early on.

- Hoopsworld says that there’s a rumor making the rounds that the Thunder might take DeMar DeRozan #3. This sounds a little fishy to me because everything I’m seeing shows DeRozan slipping a little after poor agility and sprint tests at the combine. James Harden has the better standing vertical and is just 1.5″ off of DeRozan’s max vertical. Harden also beat DeRozan soundly in the agility and sprint tests and is the much more polished offensive player at this point. DeRozan is 1.5″ taller, but Harden has a higher reach because he has a longer wingspan.

- With Jonny Flynn and Jrue Holiday climbing the draft charts, Ricky Rubio is suddenly open to interviews and workouts with teams picking #2 to #4, which includes Memphis, Oklahoma City and Sacramento. Rubio apparently didn’t play very well in his season finale, and his camp may be worried about him slipping out of the top four if those teams in question find a guy they like better.

The NBA free agency period starts July 1st, and as that date approaches I’ll preview this year’s free agent class in more detail. But for now, I’d like to take a look at which teams have the cap flexibility to be major players in free agency this summer. (Mind you, just because a team has cap space, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll use it. Just sayin’.)

Not familiar with the NBA salary cap? Here’s a quick primer…

1. The cap for the 2008-09 season was $58.7 million. The general consensus is that the cap will stay flat or decrease slightly. We’ll assume it sticks at $58.7 million.

2. If a team is over the cap, the only free agents they can sign are their own, unless they elect to sign a player to the mid-level exception (~$5.8 million per season), the bi-annual exception (~$2.0) or to a minimum contract. (The bi-annual exception may not be used in two consecutive years.)

3. If a team is under the cap, they can sign any free agent they want as long as they do not exceed the cap. They can also take on salary via trade up to the cap, so a team like the Grizzlies (with almost $20 million in cap space) could conceivably trade their first round pick to the Suns for Amare Stoudemire or to the Raptors for Chris Bosh.

Here’s a list of the bigger names in the free agent pool this summer:

Unrestricted: Carlos Boozer, Ben Gordon, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Hedo Turkoglu, Allen Iverson, Mehmet Okur, Rasheed Wallace, Mike Bibby, Anderson Varejao, Grant Hill, Kyle Korver, Trevor Ariza, Brandon Bass, Chris Andersen, Zaza Pachulia, Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden

Restricted: David Lee, Paul Millsap, Ray Felton, Josh Childress*, Marvin Williams, Glen Davis, Ramon Sessions, Charlie Villanueva, Nate Robinson, Leon Powe, Hakim Warrick, Linas Kleiza, Jarrett Jack and Shannon Brown

* It appears that if Childress does return to the NBA, the Hawks still hold his rights, so he would be a restricted free agent.

There are eight teams that project to have more than $5.8 million (the value of the mid-level exception) in cap space this summer:

Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Cap Space: $19.7 million
Memphis has been reluctant to spend for several years now and is probably one of the franchises that’s struggling the most in the current economy. I lived in Memphis for three years, and given its small size and overall lack of wealth, I always thought that it would struggle to support a professional sports team. With a core of Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about what they have at off guard, small forward and center. The big decision this summer is what to do with restricted free agent Hakim Warrick. When dealing with bad teams, numbers can be deceptive, because no matter what, somebody has to score and rebound, right? Warrick’s PER (16.91) is #24 amongst power forwards, so ideally he’d be coming off the bench for a playoff team. The Grizzlies projected cap space assumes they make the qualifying offer to Warrick ($3.0 million). Memphis is one of those teams that could really use the services of a Carlos Boozer, David Lee or Paul Millsap, but in this economy, are the Grizzlies willing to make that kind of a commitment? They could try to make a run at Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire next summer, but the odds are long that either guy would want to play for the Grizzlies.

Read the rest of this entry »