I can see being optimistic about a 20-year-old point guard who averaged 13-4-6 and shot 50% from the field and 46% from 3PT in 17 games in March, but new head coach Doug Collins might be going a little overboard here…

“I honestly believe that next year, you’re going to be talking about him being one of the top five point guards in the NBA. I think you’re going to speak about him in the same breath as Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose and Jrue.”

Good grief, Doug. Whatever happened to keeping your players hungry for praise?

For what it’s worth, Andre Iguodala supported Collins’ praise…

At Monday’s media day, Andre Iguodala admitted that he raved about Holiday, not even four months past his 20th birthday, to Collins and Sixers owner Ed Snider back in June. And he’s still doing it today.

“I said he’ll be one of the top point guards in the league,” Iguodala said. “In his prime, he’ll be a top five point guard and he might go down as one of the greatest point guards, defensively. He’s got kind of a Gary Payton presence, where he can pressure a guy full-court.”

Keep in mind that Iggy said “in his prime” that Holiday would be a top five point guard. That’s more reasonable than Collins’ assertion that it’s going to happen this season.

Either way, fantasy owners should take note — the Sixers are really high on this kid.

While it takes more than one player to lose a series, this season was about Vince Carter, and the Magic’s decision to trade for him last summer in lieu of re-signing Hedo Turkoglu. Here’s what I wrote about the move in mid-July:

Let’s see, your team just lost in the Finals — losing two games in overtime — and your main ballhandler is a free agent. What do you do? It’s tough to create the kind of chemistry that gets a team to the Finals, so you re-sign him, right? Not the Orlando Magic, who balked at Hedo Turkoglu’s $10 million-per-season asking price and instead pulled the trigger on a trade for Vince Carter. So essentially they gave up their most consistent player (Turkoglu) and a budding star (Courtney Lee) for the 32-year-old Carter. A healthy Jameer Nelson (along with a savvy mid-level signing) may have been enough to put this Magic team over the top, but now we’ll never know.

Turkoglu has had his problems in Toronto, but on a per minute and per shot basis, he was just about as productive as he was in Orlando. We’ll never know if the Magic would have beaten the Celtics if they had kept their Finals core intact, but one thing is for sure — the Vince Carter move was a bust. Against Boston, he averaged 14-4-2, shot 37% from the field and just 21% from long range. The question remains: Does Vince Carter have what it takes to win an NBA Championship?

If the Magic have learned their lesson, they’ll try to move Carter this summer. He has one more year on his contract (at the tune of $17.5 million) and another year that is a team option. So he essentially has an expiring deal, which could be valuable to a team trying to get out of another big contract. Three trade partners spring to mind…

Perhaps Golden State would be willing to take on Carter’s contract for a year to get out of the four years remaining on Monta Ellis’ (26-4-5, 45% shooting) deal, which would allow the Warriors to fully commit to rebuilding around Stephen Curry. Along with Jameer Nelson, Ellis would give the Magic the league’s smallest backcourt, so that may not be a very good idea.

The 76ers would almost certainly be willing to trade Elton Brand (13-6, 48% shooting), though that would force Rashard Lewis to the three. (Andre Iguodala is another possibility, but the Sixers would want something else in return, like Marcin Gortat.)

Finally, the Wizards would love to unload Gilbert Arenas (23-4-7, 41% shooting), and Carter would take some of the scoring pressure off of rookie John Wall. The move would also create a ton of cap space (for the Wizards) in the summer of 2011 for a possible run at Carmelo Anthony. Arenas would represent another roll of the dice for Orlando, but if he can get back to All-Star form, he could give the Magic the playmaker on the perimeter that they had hoped to find in Carter.

I’m not sure if any of those options sound good to Magic fans, but this is where the team is at with regard to Carter. Given his inability to win in the postseason, no one will want him at his current salary, so the possible trade partners are limited to teams looking to dump a bad contract of their own.

Or the Magic could elect to hold onto Vinsanity and tweak the roster around the edges, hoping that this core has better luck next season. Clearly, that hasn’t been Otis Smith’s style, so I’d expect a big change or two as Orlando tries to find the right players to surround Dwight Howard.

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Sixers beat writer Bob Ford thinks so, assuming they don’t trade Andre Iguodala:

If you believe the mock drafts, Ohio State swingman Evan Turner is going to fall to the Sixers after the Wizards take Kentucky’s John Wall. That’s fine, except the Sixers already have Evan Turner, and his name is Andre Iguodala.

If Stefanski can trade Iguodala and the four years and $56 million he has coming to him, then Turner is fine. If not, the Sixers would be better off dropping down to get Georgia Tech’s 6-foot-10 Derrick Favors and bump Brand out of the low post.

This isn’t a team that will be fixed by one player, anyway. It took years to get into this mess, and it will take years to get out.

This is a clear case of NBA-ready versus potential. Evan Turner is ready to contribute immediately, but the Sixers don’t appear to be going anywhere anytime soon, and in order to make way, they would have to trade away their best player. Andre Iguodala may be a bit overpaid, but he does a lot of different things, and is excellent on the defensive end of the court.

Derrick Favors is 6’10″ and doesn’t turn 19 until mid-July. (Turner turns 22 in October, so he’s essentially two years older.) This is what DraftExpress has to say about Favors:

He’s incredibly gifted from a physical standpoint, showing a combination of length and athleticism that is simply unparalleled at the college level. He runs the floor like a deer, is outrageously explosive around the rim, and is a fantastic target for entry-passes thanks to his terrific hands and the amazing extension he gets around the basket.

The more wide open style of the NBA game should benefit him in this regard, both in transition (where he truly excels) and as a pick and roll finisher in the half-court—especially with more talented shot-creating guards alongside him.

Offensively, Favors is fairly limited as a shot-creator in the half-court, showing raw footwork and little in the ways of a go-to move, struggling to finish with his left hand and being fairly turnover prone when forced to put the ball on the floor.

So he’s extremely athletic and struggles on the block because he’s raw. Sounds a little like Tyrus Thomas, but Favors doesn’t seem to have the attitude issues that plagued Thomas, at least while he was in Chicago.

Favors struggled early in the season, largely due to the makeup of the Georgia Tech team, but he finished strong, averaging 16-9 over the last 11 games. Let’s not forget that Gani Lawal brought many of the same things to the table. (In other words, Favors could have helped himself by picking a different school to play for.)

Anyway, looking ahead, as Favors develops on the block, he and current Sixer Marreese Speights could make a formidable high-low duo. Elton Brand’s best days are clearly behind him and Samuel Dalembert is entering the final year of his contract. The Sixers could build around Favors, Jrue Holiday and Speights.

In the end, the Sixers need to draft the player they think has the best chance to be a star or superstar in four or five years, because that’s how long it’s going to take to rebuild this team into a serious contender.

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The trade deadline is just a week away, so I thought it would be fun to play puppet master and propose a few blockbuster trades that should happen, but probably won’t. Let’s start with the least likely and work our way to the most credible. (Honestly, I had this idea before I hit the ESPN NBA page this morning and saw Chad Ford’s similar piece. Don’t worry, we don’t suggest any of the same trades.) Click on the link to see each trade in the ESPN Trade Machine.

1. Amare Stoudemire for David Lee
To make the salaries work, the Knicks would also include Jared Jeffries and Chris Duhon in the deal.
Why the Knicks should do it: Stoudemire had his best years under Mike D’Antoni and would welcome a reunion. He’s also a big name that would encourage another superstar to join the franchise this summer, and he’s more likely to re-sign with the Knicks because New York is the media capital of the world. They’d also benefit from clearing Jeffries’ salary from the books, leaving around $13 million in cap space to sign a big name (assuming Stoudemire does NOT opt out of the final year of his deal).
Why the Suns should do it: David Lee is a great fit for the Suns’ up-tempo system and he’s almost as good as Stoudemire (PER: 22.1 vs. Amare’s 20.2) at about 60% of the cost. Phoenix would pay a little more this season and have to take on Jeffries’ contract, but they’d have a young All-Star caliber power forward to build around. If they stand pat and Amare opts out, they stand to lose him with nothing to show for it, as they only would have around $4 million in cap space if Amare bolts.
Why it won’t happen: Phoenix won’t want to take on Jeffries’ contract for next season without a commitment from Lee to re-sign for a reasonable salary. He was asking for $10 million per season last summer, but his price is probably going up after making a push for the All-Star Game in 2010.

2. Kevin Martin for Carlos Boozer
The Kings would also include Ime Udoka to make the salaries work.
Why the Jazz should do it: They could use another scorer in the backcourt and there’s a possibility that they’ll soon lose Ronnie Brewer. Moving Boozer will free up minutes for Paul Millsap, who played at an All-Star level with Boozer sidelined last season. The Jazz would also save almost two million this season, inching them closer to the luxury tax threshold ($69.9 million).
Why the Kings should do it: The Tyreke Evans-Kevin Martin marriage is apparently not working (though I keep suggesting the Kings try Evans at small forward), and the Kings need a good big man. Even though he’s a bit injury-prone, Boozer is just 28 and is in his prime. He’d be a great sidekick for Evans, and the Maloofs have deep enough pockets to pay him this offseason.
Why it won’t happen: The Jazz are under the impression that they are a real contender this season, though a 15-point loss to a Kobe-less Laker team in Salt Lake City should put a damper on that thinking. Still, if an injury were to strike one of the Lakers’ stars, the Jazz would be one of the teams that could sneak into the Finals. The Kings wouldn’t do this deal because they’d be worried about Boozer bolting after the season — and that’s a real possibility. That’s not all bad, though. If Boozer didn’t re-sign, the Kings would have an extra $10 million in cap space this summer, giving them a total of $20 million to spend.

3. Tracy McGrady & Kyle Lowry for Andre Iguodala & Samuel Dalembert
Why the Rockets should do it: T-Mac and his contract are collecting dust and even though Iggy’s contract is hard to swallow, with what he brings at the defensive end, he’s probably worth it. If/when Yao comes back, the Rockets would be a legit contender. In the meantime, the addition of Iggy and Dalembert would probably be enough to push the Rockets into the playoffs.
Why the Sixers should do it: I’d be leery of trading away Iguodala, but the financial windfall ($69 million over four years). Lowry is a starter-quality point guard (something the Sixers could really use, as Lou Williams is more suited for a combo role off the bench) and if T-Mac is 75% of the player he once was, they could re-sign him on the cheap. If neither player panned out, the Sixers would suddenly have about $10 million in cap space for the summer.
Why it won’t happen: If T-Mac stinks, the Sixers would have to explain to its fans why it essentially gave away its best player for a washed-up has-been.

4. Caron Butler for Michael Beasley
Why the Heat should do it: Dwyane Wade has grumbled about Beasley’s defense this season and would probably see Butler as an upgrade, increasing the likelihood that he’d agree to re-sign. The Heat think Beasley is a power forward, which wouldn’t jibe with their plans to add Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire or Carlos Boozer this summer. Even with Butler’s salary on the books for next season, the Heat would still have $15 million in cap space to sign another superstar.
Why the Wizards should do it: (I think) Washington is rebuilding, and Butler is 29 years old — probably too old to build around. Beasley is a 21-year-old power forward who is averaging 16-7 in his sophomore season. He’s also from Maryland, and I’m not sure if playing closer to home would be a good thing or a bad thing. He has seemingly cleaned up his act and has a ton of potential. Chalmers is a young rotation-quality player on the cheap.
Why it won’t happen: The Heat and Wizards are in the same division and it’s unlikely that Washington would want to increase the chances that the Heat can hold onto Wade, even if acquiring Beasley would help them in the long run.

5. Troy Murphy for Zydrunas Ilgauskas and J.J. Hickson
Why the Cavs should do it: Cleveland’s desire to add a “stretch 4″ is well documented. They could probably do the same deal with Washington (for Jamison), but if the Wizards were to acquire Beasley, they probably wouldn’t want Hickson, who plays the same position. Murphy is a great rebounder who is also one of the best shooting big men in the game. He’d be a great complement for Shaq and LeBron on the front line, though his foot speed could be a problem against Rashard Lewis.
Why the Pacers should do it: They’re going nowhere and Hickson is a good looking prospect at power forward. With Murphy’s salary off the books, the Pacers would only be about $5 million over the salary cap heading into the 2010-11 season.
Why it won’t happen: The Cavs have been reluctant to give up Hickson in trades, but they could simply be posturing to get the best possible deal next week. They made the mistake of not making a move at the trade deadline last season and with the way they’re running away in the East right now, the same thing could happen this season.

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The Arizona Republic is suggesting that the Sixers could do a three-way deal that would send Amare Stoudemire to Detroit instead of dealing directly with the Suns.

Possibilities with Philadelphia could be stronger with two fronts, a deal between bringing in swingman Andre Iguodala for Stoudemire with perhaps young power forward Marreese Speights or a three-way deal involving Detroit with Pistons guard Ben Gordon winding up in Philadelphia and the Suns getting Iguodala and Detroit power forward Chris Wilcox. The rub with Iguodala, a 26-year-old former Arizona star, is inheriting a contract that will pay him $56.5 million over the next four seasons.

This sounds like wishful speculation. First, both Marc Stein and Chad Ford have confirmed that it’s the Sixers holding up an Iguodala-and-Dalembert for Stoudemire deal, so why would Philly give up the promising young Speights instead?

Secondly, why would they trade Iggy, an elite defender who can score, for Ben Gordon, an excellent shooter but just a mediocre defender? It’s not like Gordon’s contract (four years, $48 million) is that much better than Iguodala’s (four years, $57 million). Not enough to justify the drop off on defense, anyway.

While I love the NBA trade deadline, I’m ready for it to get here already. The amount of misinformation and speculation that happens on a daily basis is mind-boggling.

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John Krolik of Cavs: The Blog posted a detailed analysis of Andre Iguodala’s potential impact on the Cavaliers.

Danny Ferry has done an absolutely masterful job of surrounding LeBron James with high-quality role players during his tenure as GM. That being said, thanks to LeBron getting too good too fast, Luke Jackson’s back, DaJuan Wagner’s intestines, Ricky Davis’ head, Larry Hughes’ everything, and the sins of Jim Paxson, LeBron’s never gotten a young potential superstar to grow with. (Mo Williams is great for what he is, but he’s no superstar.) This might be the Cavs’ chance to get LeBron a true running mate.

There’s also something else. Iguodala’s a lock-down perimeter defender, both on the ball and providing weak-side help. He’s got off-the-charts athleticism and a Gumby wingspan. He’s not a natural shooter, but he can make shots when they’re open. He’s a good decision-maker and can make plays. This is borderline heresy, but it’s hard not to see more than a little bit of Scottie Pippen in Iguodala.

I’m sure that the Pippen comparison is going to raise more than a few eyebrows, but Krolik isn’t saying that Iggy is as good as Pippen or really even in the same league, but the potential is there. His numbers are comparable and Pippen had the luxury of playing with an alpha dog from day one. Iguodala played with Allen Iverson for a couple of seasons (posting 50% shooting from the field and 35% from long range in 2005-06) but has otherwise been the offensive focal point of a pretty mediocre Sixers squad. If he were to join the Cavs, there is reason to believe that he would become a far more efficient player since he could exercise much better shot selection.

Krolik goes on to discuss Iggy’s defense:

First of all, Iguodala’s impact on the defensive end would be immediate. By the numbers, Iguodala may have been the best perimeter defender in basketball last season. What’s more, the numbers seem to make sense. Iguodala is a freak athlete with a 6-11 wingspan, and has been regarded as a nightmare defender ever since he came into the league. He’s also active on the weak side, as his block and steal numbers demonstrate.

His defensive prowess is confirmed by John Hollinger:

Iguodala is one of the most underrated players in the league. He’s not a great shooter or scorer, which muddies the first impression, but he’s consistent, durable, and fills out the box score. He also is one of the few stars who guards the opponent’s best player every night.

That’s probably the first place to start with Iguodala — he’s an All-Defense caliber player who can guard wings of just about any size and shape, and this fact has mostly slipped under the radar. Last season the Sixers gave up 7.4 points per 100 possessions fewer with him on the court according to 82games.com. Moreover, his ability to defend without fouling was phenomenal — only four shooting guards beat his rate of 1.86 personals per 40 minutes.

All right, so he’s a great defensive player and a capable offensive player who is likely to become more efficient playing alongside a generous alpha dog like LeBron. What’s not to like? Well, his salary (four-years, $56 million remaining) is pretty steep, though it’s tough to put a dollar value on his defense.

I’m not worried about that end of the court. Iguodala would make the Cavs a better defensive team. The concern is on the offensive end, where head coach Mike Brown really struggles to take advantage of his players’ strengths. How quickly can the Cavs get Iggy into the flow of things?

Though a lot can change in a few months, with Kevin Garnett’s knee, Paul Pierce’s ankle, and Vince Carter’s inconsistency, I’m not too worried about the Cavs getting out of the East come June. It would be nice to have Iguodala to throw at Kobe Bryant in a potential Finals matchup with the Lakers, and if the Sixers are insisting that Samuel Dalembert be part of the deal, he could be useful against Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum.

More and more, it’s looking the Iguodala would be the best overall fit for the Cavs. Whatever struggles he may have on offense should be offset on the defensive end. And if LeBron leaves in the summer, the Cavs would have a good all-around player in his prime to keep the team competitive.

The issue might be Dalembert. Here’s what Krolik had to say:

There’s also the issue of what the Cavs would have to give up. If it’s just Z with a buyout and JJ, that’s one thing. However, the word is that the 76ers are looking to use Iguodala to offload Dalembert’s contract. A commenter made that work with the Cavs giving up Z, Hickson, Boobie, and Parker. That’s a lot to give up. Say what you will about all of those guys, but you’re talking about shipping out four rotation players from the league’s best team, including two starters. And as much as Z has struggled with his shot, the team still plays very well with him on the floor, and he’s the only true 4 or 5 on the team able to stretch the floor.

Assuming the Cavs can get Ilgauskas back via a buyout and re-sign, they’d be giving up Hickson, Gibson and Parker for Iguodala and Dalembert. Iggy would make Gibson and Parker expendable while Dalembert would offset the loss of Hickson. If Dan Gilbert is willing to spend the money, the Cavs should pull the trigger. At this point, it’s all about winning a title and keeping LeBron. You can’t put a price tag on that.

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