I can see being optimistic about a 20-year-old point guard who averaged 13-4-6 and shot 50% from the field and 46% from 3PT in 17 games in March, but new head coach Doug Collins might be going a little overboard here…

“I honestly believe that next year, you’re going to be talking about him being one of the top five point guards in the NBA. I think you’re going to speak about him in the same breath as Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose and Jrue.”

Good grief, Doug. Whatever happened to keeping your players hungry for praise?

For what it’s worth, Andre Iguodala supported Collins’ praise…

At Monday’s media day, Andre Iguodala admitted that he raved about Holiday, not even four months past his 20th birthday, to Collins and Sixers owner Ed Snider back in June. And he’s still doing it today.

“I said he’ll be one of the top point guards in the league,” Iguodala said. “In his prime, he’ll be a top five point guard and he might go down as one of the greatest point guards, defensively. He’s got kind of a Gary Payton presence, where he can pressure a guy full-court.”

Keep in mind that Iggy said “in his prime” that Holiday would be a top five point guard. That’s more reasonable than Collins’ assertion that it’s going to happen this season.

Either way, fantasy owners should take note — the Sixers are really high on this kid.

While it takes more than one player to lose a series, this season was about Vince Carter, and the Magic’s decision to trade for him last summer in lieu of re-signing Hedo Turkoglu. Here’s what I wrote about the move in mid-July:

Let’s see, your team just lost in the Finals — losing two games in overtime — and your main ballhandler is a free agent. What do you do? It’s tough to create the kind of chemistry that gets a team to the Finals, so you re-sign him, right? Not the Orlando Magic, who balked at Hedo Turkoglu’s $10 million-per-season asking price and instead pulled the trigger on a trade for Vince Carter. So essentially they gave up their most consistent player (Turkoglu) and a budding star (Courtney Lee) for the 32-year-old Carter. A healthy Jameer Nelson (along with a savvy mid-level signing) may have been enough to put this Magic team over the top, but now we’ll never know.

Turkoglu has had his problems in Toronto, but on a per minute and per shot basis, he was just about as productive as he was in Orlando. We’ll never know if the Magic would have beaten the Celtics if they had kept their Finals core intact, but one thing is for sure — the Vince Carter move was a bust. Against Boston, he averaged 14-4-2, shot 37% from the field and just 21% from long range. The question remains: Does Vince Carter have what it takes to win an NBA Championship?

If the Magic have learned their lesson, they’ll try to move Carter this summer. He has one more year on his contract (at the tune of $17.5 million) and another year that is a team option. So he essentially has an expiring deal, which could be valuable to a team trying to get out of another big contract. Three trade partners spring to mind…

Perhaps Golden State would be willing to take on Carter’s contract for a year to get out of the four years remaining on Monta Ellis’ (26-4-5, 45% shooting) deal, which would allow the Warriors to fully commit to rebuilding around Stephen Curry. Along with Jameer Nelson, Ellis would give the Magic the league’s smallest backcourt, so that may not be a very good idea.

The 76ers would almost certainly be willing to trade Elton Brand (13-6, 48% shooting), though that would force Rashard Lewis to the three. (Andre Iguodala is another possibility, but the Sixers would want something else in return, like Marcin Gortat.)

Finally, the Wizards would love to unload Gilbert Arenas (23-4-7, 41% shooting), and Carter would take some of the scoring pressure off of rookie John Wall. The move would also create a ton of cap space (for the Wizards) in the summer of 2011 for a possible run at Carmelo Anthony. Arenas would represent another roll of the dice for Orlando, but if he can get back to All-Star form, he could give the Magic the playmaker on the perimeter that they had hoped to find in Carter.

I’m not sure if any of those options sound good to Magic fans, but this is where the team is at with regard to Carter. Given his inability to win in the postseason, no one will want him at his current salary, so the possible trade partners are limited to teams looking to dump a bad contract of their own.

Or the Magic could elect to hold onto Vinsanity and tweak the roster around the edges, hoping that this core has better luck next season. Clearly, that hasn’t been Otis Smith’s style, so I’d expect a big change or two as Orlando tries to find the right players to surround Dwight Howard.

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Sixers beat writer Bob Ford thinks so, assuming they don’t trade Andre Iguodala:

If you believe the mock drafts, Ohio State swingman Evan Turner is going to fall to the Sixers after the Wizards take Kentucky’s John Wall. That’s fine, except the Sixers already have Evan Turner, and his name is Andre Iguodala.

If Stefanski can trade Iguodala and the four years and $56 million he has coming to him, then Turner is fine. If not, the Sixers would be better off dropping down to get Georgia Tech’s 6-foot-10 Derrick Favors and bump Brand out of the low post.

This isn’t a team that will be fixed by one player, anyway. It took years to get into this mess, and it will take years to get out.

This is a clear case of NBA-ready versus potential. Evan Turner is ready to contribute immediately, but the Sixers don’t appear to be going anywhere anytime soon, and in order to make way, they would have to trade away their best player. Andre Iguodala may be a bit overpaid, but he does a lot of different things, and is excellent on the defensive end of the court.

Derrick Favors is 6’10″ and doesn’t turn 19 until mid-July. (Turner turns 22 in October, so he’s essentially two years older.) This is what DraftExpress has to say about Favors:

He’s incredibly gifted from a physical standpoint, showing a combination of length and athleticism that is simply unparalleled at the college level. He runs the floor like a deer, is outrageously explosive around the rim, and is a fantastic target for entry-passes thanks to his terrific hands and the amazing extension he gets around the basket.

The more wide open style of the NBA game should benefit him in this regard, both in transition (where he truly excels) and as a pick and roll finisher in the half-court—especially with more talented shot-creating guards alongside him.

Offensively, Favors is fairly limited as a shot-creator in the half-court, showing raw footwork and little in the ways of a go-to move, struggling to finish with his left hand and being fairly turnover prone when forced to put the ball on the floor.

So he’s extremely athletic and struggles on the block because he’s raw. Sounds a little like Tyrus Thomas, but Favors doesn’t seem to have the attitude issues that plagued Thomas, at least while he was in Chicago.

Favors struggled early in the season, largely due to the makeup of the Georgia Tech team, but he finished strong, averaging 16-9 over the last 11 games. Let’s not forget that Gani Lawal brought many of the same things to the table. (In other words, Favors could have helped himself by picking a different school to play for.)

Anyway, looking ahead, as Favors develops on the block, he and current Sixer Marreese Speights could make a formidable high-low duo. Elton Brand’s best days are clearly behind him and Samuel Dalembert is entering the final year of his contract. The Sixers could build around Favors, Jrue Holiday and Speights.

In the end, the Sixers need to draft the player they think has the best chance to be a star or superstar in four or five years, because that’s how long it’s going to take to rebuild this team into a serious contender.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

The trade deadline is just a week away, so I thought it would be fun to play puppet master and propose a few blockbuster trades that should happen, but probably won’t. Let’s start with the least likely and work our way to the most credible. (Honestly, I had this idea before I hit the ESPN NBA page this morning and saw Chad Ford’s similar piece. Don’t worry, we don’t suggest any of the same trades.) Click on the link to see each trade in the ESPN Trade Machine.

1. Amare Stoudemire for David Lee
To make the salaries work, the Knicks would also include Jared Jeffries and Chris Duhon in the deal.
Why the Knicks should do it: Stoudemire had his best years under Mike D’Antoni and would welcome a reunion. He’s also a big name that would encourage another superstar to join the franchise this summer, and he’s more likely to re-sign with the Knicks because New York is the media capital of the world. They’d also benefit from clearing Jeffries’ salary from the books, leaving around $13 million in cap space to sign a big name (assuming Stoudemire does NOT opt out of the final year of his deal).
Why the Suns should do it: David Lee is a great fit for the Suns’ up-tempo system and he’s almost as good as Stoudemire (PER: 22.1 vs. Amare’s 20.2) at about 60% of the cost. Phoenix would pay a little more this season and have to take on Jeffries’ contract, but they’d have a young All-Star caliber power forward to build around. If they stand pat and Amare opts out, they stand to lose him with nothing to show for it, as they only would have around $4 million in cap space if Amare bolts.
Why it won’t happen: Phoenix won’t want to take on Jeffries’ contract for next season without a commitment from Lee to re-sign for a reasonable salary. He was asking for $10 million per season last summer, but his price is probably going up after making a push for the All-Star Game in 2010.

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The Arizona Republic is suggesting that the Sixers could do a three-way deal that would send Amare Stoudemire to Detroit instead of dealing directly with the Suns.

Possibilities with Philadelphia could be stronger with two fronts, a deal between bringing in swingman Andre Iguodala for Stoudemire with perhaps young power forward Marreese Speights or a three-way deal involving Detroit with Pistons guard Ben Gordon winding up in Philadelphia and the Suns getting Iguodala and Detroit power forward Chris Wilcox. The rub with Iguodala, a 26-year-old former Arizona star, is inheriting a contract that will pay him $56.5 million over the next four seasons.

This sounds like wishful speculation. First, both Marc Stein and Chad Ford have confirmed that it’s the Sixers holding up an Iguodala-and-Dalembert for Stoudemire deal, so why would Philly give up the promising young Speights instead?

Secondly, why would they trade Iggy, an elite defender who can score, for Ben Gordon, an excellent shooter but just a mediocre defender? It’s not like Gordon’s contract (four years, $48 million) is that much better than Iguodala’s (four years, $57 million). Not enough to justify the drop off on defense, anyway.

While I love the NBA trade deadline, I’m ready for it to get here already. The amount of misinformation and speculation that happens on a daily basis is mind-boggling.

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John Krolik of Cavs: The Blog posted a detailed analysis of Andre Iguodala’s potential impact on the Cavaliers.

Danny Ferry has done an absolutely masterful job of surrounding LeBron James with high-quality role players during his tenure as GM. That being said, thanks to LeBron getting too good too fast, Luke Jackson’s back, DaJuan Wagner’s intestines, Ricky Davis’ head, Larry Hughes’ everything, and the sins of Jim Paxson, LeBron’s never gotten a young potential superstar to grow with. (Mo Williams is great for what he is, but he’s no superstar.) This might be the Cavs’ chance to get LeBron a true running mate.

There’s also something else. Iguodala’s a lock-down perimeter defender, both on the ball and providing weak-side help. He’s got off-the-charts athleticism and a Gumby wingspan. He’s not a natural shooter, but he can make shots when they’re open. He’s a good decision-maker and can make plays. This is borderline heresy, but it’s hard not to see more than a little bit of Scottie Pippen in Iguodala.

I’m sure that the Pippen comparison is going to raise more than a few eyebrows, but Krolik isn’t saying that Iggy is as good as Pippen or really even in the same league, but the potential is there. His numbers are comparable and Pippen had the luxury of playing with an alpha dog from day one. Iguodala played with Allen Iverson for a couple of seasons (posting 50% shooting from the field and 35% from long range in 2005-06) but has otherwise been the offensive focal point of a pretty mediocre Sixers squad. If he were to join the Cavs, there is reason to believe that he would become a far more efficient player since he could exercise much better shot selection.

Krolik goes on to discuss Iggy’s defense:

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The Philadelphia 76ers were down by 14 points heading into the fourth quarter, and they managed to outscore Orlando 35-19 in the final period to spring the upset. Andre Iguodala is a difficult matchup for Hedo Turkoglu, but with time running down in regulation, the Turkish forward forced the “new AI” into a tough shot, but Iguodala nailed it to give the Sixers the lead for good, 100-98. On the previous possession, Donyell Marshall hit a HUGE three-pointer (with 0:34 to play) to tie the game at 98-98. (Truth be told, I didn’t even realize that Marshall was still in the league.)

How did Orlando lose this game? Dwight Howard had 31 points and 16 rebounds, but Turkoglu and Rafer Alston combined to shoot just 7 for 23 from the field. Three-point shooting was the difference — Orlando shot 5 of 18 (28%) from long range while the Sixers knocked down 7 of 12 (58%) attempts. Iguodala had a great game, posting 20 points, eight rebounds and eight assists. Lou Williams pitched in with 18 points.

The Magic miss Jameer Nelson. Rafer Alston is a serviceable replacement, but he’s no Jameer. Rashard Lewis needs to play better as well. Fifteen points, three rebounds and three assists is a decent line, but not for a guy making more than $17 million per season.

The economy is really starting to take its toll on professional sports, and the NBA is no different. Bad contracts are bad even when the economy is pumping, but they really stand out in tough times like these. So I decided to look through the payrolls team-by-team to try to identify the worst contracts in the NBA. I expected to list 15-20 names, but I ended up scribbling down 68. That’s right, there are no fewer than 68 bad contracts in the NBA.

I didn’t include any of the players that are in the final year of their contracts because…well, what’s the point? They’ll be off the books in a few months anyway. Instead, I wanted to focus on those contracts that are going to haunt teams for years to come, so to be eligible, players have to have at least a year left on their current deals.

It’s tough to compare someone making superstar money to an average, everyday role player, so I split these 68 contracts up into three groups: the Overpaid Role Players, the Not-So-Super Stars and the Injury-Prones. I will rank them from least-worst to most-worst with the thinking that I wouldn’t trade the player for anyone further down the list but I would trade him for anyone previously mentioned. So, for example, if a guy is listed #7 within a particular group, I’m not trading him for anyone ranked #6-#1, but I would think seriously about moving him for a guy that is ranked #8+.

So let’s start with the role players and go from there…

(Note: In most cases, I don’t blame the player himself for his outrageous contract. The fault lies with the general manager that inked the guy to the deal. However, this rule goes out the window if the player has a history of only producing in his contract year – I’m looking at you, Tim Thomas.)

The 76ers got the win last night, but their star forward suffered a dislocated shoulder that is going to keep him out a month.

Team officials say the Sixers’ leading scorer has a fracture and tear in his right shoulder but will not need surgery.

Brand is averaging 15.9 points and 9.8 rebounds per game this season.

A playoff team last season, the 76ers struggled to a 9-14 start before firing coach Maurice Cheeks last week. They are 2-0 under interim coach Tony DiLeo.

All right, so the team is currently 11-14. Let’s assume that Brand misses exactly a month and returns Jan. 18. That means he would miss 15 games. The Sixers’ winning percentage was .440 with him, so let’s say they win 34% of their games without him (5-10). That would put them at 16-24 when he gets back. Is there still time to get back into the playoff hunt?

Sure. Considering .500 will probably earn a playoff spot in the East, it shouldn’t be too difficult. But assuming our assumptions are correct, that would mean that the Sixers would have to go 25-17 (.595) over the last half of the season to make the playoffs. And this team hasn’t proved that they can play at that level thus far.

Every win they can get with Brand out will make things easier. It would be a major disappointment if this team misses the playoffs, especially in the East.

It’s time for Andre Iguodala to step up and earn that big contract he signed this offseason.