Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global icon” and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

2. Dwyane Wade, SG (28)
Wade is two years older than James, but is just as effective when healthy. In fact, staying healthy is his biggest problem. In six-plus seasons, he has missed almost 20% of his team’s games. He isn’t a great three-point shooter, but he’s a terrific all-around scorer and gets to the line as well as anyone in the NBA. Like LeBron, he’ll be seeking a max contract, but since he’s older and somewhat injury-prone, he won’t be as good of a value as his counterpart. I wouldn’t rule out a LeBron-Wade combo in New York, but it’s more likely that the Knicks will want to pair LeBron with a big man, like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. There’s a good chance that Wade will stay put in Miami since it’s a very desirable place to play and the Heat have enough cap space to sign someone like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire in addition to re-signing their superstar. After all, there are worse things in life than being a multi-millionaire living in South Beach.
Note: PO

3. Chris Bosh, FC (26)
Simply stated – Chris Bosh is one of the best young big men in the NBA. He has averaged at least 22.3 points and 8.7 rebounds over the last four seasons. This year, the versatile power forward has stepped up his game and is averaging 28.9 points and 11.5 rebounds. Everyone in New York is talking about a possible LeBron-Bosh combo, and this would be an ideal situation, but with a projected drop in the salary cap, the Knicks will need to move a player or two by the trade deadline to make it work. Bosh is no sure thing to leave Toronto – the franchise proved it was willing to spend when it signed Hedo Turkoglu to give Bosh some help. With the emergence of Andrea Bargnani and the steady play of Jose Calderon, the Raptors have something going.
Note: PO

4. Amare Stoudemire, FC (28)
Stoudemire is a little bigger and stronger than Bosh, but their numbers are almost identical. Stoudemire is two years older, far more injury-prone, and isn’t as good of a defender, but he boasts a much higher FG%. He’s at his best when he catches a pass from Steve Nash off of the duo’s patented pick-and-roll and attacks the rim. If the Knicks are able to woo LeBron but are unable for some reason to get Bosh, Stoudemire would be the next best choice. He’s obviously a great fit in Mike D’Antoni’s system – he averaged 26 points and 9 rebounds in the 2004-05 season – so it’s a logical pairing.
Note: Early Termination Option (ETO)

5. Joe Johnson, SG (29)
The Hawks raised some eyebrows when they traded future Most Improved Player Boris Diaw and two first round draft picks to the Suns for Joe Johnson. Once Diaw won the MIP, it looked like the Suns got the better end of the deal. But with Johnson turning into a 23-point, five-assist, four-rebound kind of player, it sure looks like the Hawks were the ones to benefit most from the trade. It’s likely that Atlanta will do everything possible to retain him, as he’s the biggest reason the team made its return to the playoffs last season. Given his age, scoring ability, versatility and three-point accuracy (39%), he will be highly valued in the summer of 2010.

6. Dirk Nowitzki, PF (32)
Nowitzki’s reputation has taken a bit of a dip over the last couple of seasons, but he’s still averaging 26-and-9 this year. The Mavs are committed to him, so it’s going to be tough for Dirk to turn down the $21.5 million if the two sides are unable to reach an agreement on an extension by next summer. I don’t see Dirk leaving Dallas anytime soon.
Note: ETO

7. Carlos Boozer, PF (27)
Boozer elected to play out the final year of his contract because he found out last summer that his market value didn’t meet his expectations. Instead, he’s focused on having a good season in Utah and proving to everyone that he can stay healthy. Boozer is a great fit as a sidekick, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he landed in Miami, New York or New Jersey/Brooklyn. In fact, the Nets are a trade away from having enough cap space to sign both LeBron/Wade and Boozer, assuming he doesn’t expect a max deal. It’s highly unlikely that he stays in Utah since the Jazz just made a big commitment to Paul Millsap, who has a very similar skill set.

8. Paul Pierce, SG (33)
If Pierce were younger in the summer of 2010, he‘d be higher on this list. Realistically, he’s unlikely to be available because the last year of his deal is worth $21.5 million, and he’s not going to find that kind of money elsewhere. He’ll probably stick in Boston since Kevin Garnett is signed through 2011-12.
Note: PO

9. Manu Ginobili, SG (32)
Ginobili has a reputation for being injury-prone; he has missed almost 17% of his team’s regular season games in seven-plus years. He’s a good three-point shooter (career 38%), and a crafty scorer (14.8 ppg) and passer (3.6 apg). The Spurs have done a great job over the years of re-signing their stars, but if Ginobili becomes available in the summer of 2010, more than a few teams will be interested in signing him to a three- or four-year contract. He always seems to come up big in crunch time.

10. David Lee, PF (27)
Lee was a restricted free agent this past summer and ended up signing a one-year deal to stay with the Knicks. His camp was looking for a deal averaging $8-$10 million per season, but quickly found that the market wasn’t willing to bear that. He led the league in double-doubles in the 2008-09 season, but given the frenetic pace at which the Knicks play, his numbers are a little inflated. Still, he’ll be a great complementary forward wherever he lands.

Honorable Mention:

Yao Ming, C (29)
Yao is a 22/10 guy, but his biggest problem is staying healthy. After playing in all but two games of his first three seasons, Yao has missed more than a third of his team’s games. Yao’s big frame isn’t built for the long haul. This makes him a dicey investment for a team trying to win a championship. Yao would have to terminate a contract that would pay him $17.7 million for the 2010-11 season. It’s doubtful that he’ll find that kind of money on the open market coming off a season-long injury.

Tracy McGrady, SG (31)
T-Mac is one of the league’s most talented and versatile players, but he has two serious issues: staying healthy and an apparent inability to win in the postseason. In the three seasons spanning from 2005-2008, he has missed a quarter of the Rockets’ games. Given his age and health concerns, If he continues to struggle with his knees and back, he could be passed (value-wise) by Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd or Josh Howard.

Shaquille O’Neal, C (38)
Will anyone want to take on a 38-year-old O’Neal? What kind of contract is he willing to play for? If he can help the Cavs win a title, it will boost his stock considerably.

Richard Jefferson, SF (30)
Jefferson would have to opt-out of the final year of his deal ($15.0 million) to become a free agent. It’s doubtful that he’s going to find that kind of money on the open market.

Michael Redd, SG (30)
Redd has a ETO, and is unikely to exercise it due to the value of the final year of his contract ($18.3 million).

Josh Howard, SF (30)
The Mavs have a team option for the 2010-11 season, and given Howard’s off-the-court antics, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be a Maverick for long. If he’s a good citizen, however, he’s sure to stay in Dallas.

Other notables: T.J. Ford, PG (27); Tyson Chandler, C (28); Ray Allen, SG (34); Marcus Camby, C (36); Raymond Felton, PG (26); John Salmons, GF (30); Allen Iverson, G (35); Nate Robinson, G (26); Al Harrington, F (30) and Travis Outlaw, SF (25)

Significant restricted free agents: Rudy Gay, Tyrus Thomas, Ronnie Brewer, Randy Foye, Kyle Lowry and Josh Childress.

Photos from fOTOGLIF

The short answer is “I don’t know.”

Not enough? I don’t blame you. I wrote the following during my running diary on draft day:

There’s a rumor that the Warriors might send Andris Biedrins, Marco Belinelli, Brandan Wright and the #7 pick to Phoenix for Amare Stoudemire. That seems like an awful lot to give up given the trades we’ve seen go down in recent days. But Stoudemire is a borderline franchise player, so a good center (Biedrins) and three prospects (Belinelli, Wright and the #7 pick) doesn’t seem crazy.

The Warriors drafted Stephen Curry when he fell to #7. At that point, it wasn’t clear whether or not he’d be headed to Phoenix as part of this trade. Paul Coro of AZCentral.com reported that he “likely” was headed to the Suns.

Golden State’s selection of Davidson point guard Stephen Curry at No. 7 was likely made for the Suns as part of an Amaré Stoudemire trade that can’t be completed until Wednesday. That is because Phoenix would be acquiring Warriors center Andris Biedrins, a base-year compensation player, as part of a Stoudemire deal that would include more Warriors players, possibly power forward Brandan Wright and/or shooting guard Marco Belinelli.

The Suns were hoping they could land Curry or Arizona power forward Jordan Hill with the Warriors’ seventh pick but had their choice after Minnesota took neither with its fifth and sixth picks.

The next day, Coro reported that the deal was all but done, but hinged on whether or not Curry was included…

With its first-round pick, Phoenix selected 6-foot-10 Louisville forward Earl Clark, but the bigger news was that sources said the Suns expect to complete a trade with Golden State that would send Amare Stoudemire to the Warriors next week for Davidson point guard and No. 7 pick Stephen Curry, center Andris Biedrins, power forward Brandan Wright and shooting guard Marco Belinelli.

If Curry is not included, the deal will not be made. A trade cannot be completed until Wednesday because Biedrins, a 23-year-old Latvian 7-footer, is a base-year compensation player whose trade value will not match his contract number until then. The deal needs Biedrins at his $9 million salary, which stays flat through 2013-14, to make the trade work under NBA financial parameters.

Later, Golden State head coach Don Nelson said that the Warriors were going to keep Curry.

Nelson firmly declared the Warriors won’t trade Curry on Friday, quashing suspicions about Golden State’s intentions in selecting the former Davidson star who led the nation in scoring last season.

“He can unpack his bags and relax,” Nelson said after welcoming Curry to Oakland. “He can buy a house. We drafted him because we think he’s a terrific player that fits right into our program. He ain’t going anyplace.”

Coro tried to clarify the Suns-Warriors deal on Friday.

The Suns had an agreement in principle with Golden State about a deal that would send Amaré Stoudemire to the Warriors for Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright, Marco Belinelli and the No. 7 pick. It was the Suns’ understanding that the Warriors were drafting Curry for them.

But with Biedrins’ base-year compensation status, a deal can’t be completed immediately because his cap number is lower than his actual $9 million salary until July. The Suns were expecting to have to wait about two weeks (until July 8th) for the deal to be completed.

That is a lot of time, especially when there already is a lot of talk out of Golden State about the Warriors keeping Curry. That about-face apparently would nix the deal for the Suns.

Even today, there is still a belief in Phoenix that the deal will get pushed through under the initial agreement. But Golden State may have been shocked that Curry was available and is having a change of heart. There was nothing binding about the agreement.

Coro wrote yesterday that a deal sending Stoudemire to Phoenix was not dead yet.

More insiders have backed up the assertion that Phoenix thought it had a done deal going into the Warriors’ No. 7 pick on Thursday night and believed it had Davidson point guard Stephen Curry once the pick came up. If the Suns did not think that Curry was Phoenix-bound, would they have taken UCLA point guard Jrue Holiday at No. 14 instead of Louisville forward Earl Clark?

We don’t know that answer. We just know the Suns did not think it was very likely that Holiday would drop to them at 14 (he went 17th to Philadelphia). If anything, it appeared that Holiday was rising as the draft neared. For the Suns, the call on Holiday was going to be weighing a short track record at UCLA against the potential star quality of a hard-working, defensively strong 6-foot-4 point guard who has the court vision and willingness to pass. But they really did like Clark all along and said weeks ahead of the draft that length and defense could be priorities with the pick.

In the end, the Suns really were closer to getting Arizona power forward Jordan Hill than Curry. If Golden State planned to keep Curry all along if he was available, the Suns never had a chance at him. Had Curry gone higher as expected, the deal could have get done with the Warriors taking Hill for the Suns.

All right, so what is going on here?

It sounds as if the Warriors and Suns made an agreement for a Stoudemire swap, and when Golden State took Curry at #7, the Suns thought that pick was made for them. If the Warriors agreed to send Curry to Phoenix, but then had a change of heart, then they reneged on the deal. Being surprised about Curry’s availability at #7 isn’t a fair defense because the two teams would have had to have discussions about all of the possible scenarios. At some point, Suns GM Steve Kerr must have said “if Curry is available at #7, we want him as part of this deal” and Warriors GM Larry Riley either agreed or disagreed. If he agreed, then the Warriors reneged. If he disagreed, then the Suns (or Coro) are being disingenuous about Curry actually being part of this deal. If the two didn’t discuss the possibility of Curry falling to #7, then both general managers are incompetent.

It’s not like Curry was a sure bet to go in the top six. Sure, Minnesota’s decision to draft two pure point guards back-to-back was unorthodox, but the Kings could have easily went with Ricky Rubio at #4 and the T-Wolves might have paired Tyreke Evans with Jonny Flynn at #5 and #6. Evans had a terrific workout in Minnesota and is big enough to play off guard, so it wouldn’t have been shocking had Minnesota passed on Curry there.

One thing is certain — it’s going to be interesting to watch this unfold. Curry didn’t work out for Golden State and most indications is that he didn’t want to land in Oakland. He is saying all of the right things now, but he’s a mature kid, so that’s no surprise. Nelson and Riley might be covering their bases when they say that he’s not going to be traded. If the Stoudemire deal falls through due to one of his health issues (eye, knee), then they don’t want to alienate Curry.

As for a Monta Ellis/Stephen Curry backcourt, I think it can work. Ellis is more of a slasher, while Curry is a shooter. Even though their both small, their games actually complement each other more than most people think. Nelson isn’t going to be concerned about size because he feels that with the pace at which the Warriors play, an Ellis/Curry combo will put a lot of pressure on the offensive end of the court and in transition.

If a deal does finally go through, it will be interesting to see if Curry is included. After all of this drama, I don’t see the Suns settling for just Biedrins, Wright and Belinelli (even though that’s not a bad deal given this economy and the certainty that Stoudemire will eventually change teams in the next year). If Golden State is set on keeping Curry, but still wants to do business, they may have to throw in a future first round pick (or include Anthony Randolph instead of Wright) to sweeten the pot for the Suns. Golden State would then move forward with Ellis and Curry in the backcourt, Stephen Jackson or Corey Maggette at small forward, Randolph at power forward and Stoudemire in the middle. Conversely, the Suns would then rebuild around Clark, Biedrins and Wright, and whomever they get for Steve Nash.

T-Mac for Amare?

According to the same source that disclosed Terry Porter was about to be fired as Suns coach, the Rockets are leaning toward swapping Tracy McGrady’s expiring $22M contract, Carl Landry and Aaron Brooks for Leandro Barbosa and Stoudemire, who owns an escape clause after next season and is demanding an extension this summer to waive it.

I’m not sure what the upside is for the Suns. Stoudemire will likely opt out of his contract after the season, so they aren’t gaining any financial flexibility. They do get a couple of good young players (Landry and Brooks), but is that really enough? McGrady is a very good player when healthy, but he can’t seem to stay upright.

This would be a bold move for the Rockets, but it would leave them awfully thin at point guard. Kyle Lowry would be the only experienced PG on the roster, but Houston could use its mid-level exception to go out and get a veteran like Andre Miller or Mike Bibby, though the MLE may not be enough.

Memphis still hasn’t decided what to do with the #2 pick.

Heisley, in town Wednesday preparing to oversee the Grizzlies’ draft war room, contended the organization’s next move still was up in the air just hours before draft proceedings were set to begin.

They’ve haven’t come to a consensus on a player if the Griz exercise their top pick. They’re still talking about trades.

Um, it really shouldn’t be this difficult. There aren’t too many variables to the equation. Blake Griffin is going to go #1, so the Grizzlies can pick anyone they want #2, or trade it away. Unless they’re waiting for a really great offer, it’s a pretty frightening prospect for their fans if the Grizzlies truly don’t know what they’re going to do tonight.

Evans the Kings’ choice at #4?

As for who the Kings pick at No. 4? It’s still sounding like Memphis’ Tyreke Evans, but today and the in-house discussions that are going on do truly matter. Davidson’s Stephen Curry may be the safe pick, and I almost wonder if he winds up being the guy with the understanding that the Kings love his offense and simply plan to add defensive pieces elsewhere to shore up that weakness (they love Louisville’s Terrence Williams). Syracuse’s Jonny Flynn still has fans among the team’s decision makers and makes sense to them on a lot of fronts.

Lastly, Ricky Rubio. If the anti-Rubio sentiment that was so prevalent in the Kings camp over the last few weeks was actually all smoke, then Cheek and Chong would be proud. But there are strong basketball arguments to be made that he would be the best fit based on need, and the business and what his presence could do to help the bottom line is certainly being discussed.

This could be a case of the Kings blowing some smoke. If they want Rubio, they could be pretending that they’re going to pass to dissuade teams from trading with Memphis or Oklahoma City in order to leapfrog the Kings and snatch him up. But Evans reportedly performed really well in his last workout and Jonny Flynn is high on their board as well. I think there’s a pretty good chance that Evans ends up being the Kings’ pick.

Elton Brand on the block?

An NBA source has confirmed that Stefanski has shopped power forward Elton Brand, last off-season’s blockbuster acquisition. That same source indicated Brand is unlikely to be traded because he has four years and $65 million left on his deal and has health concerns because his last two seasons ended in injury.

Brand might be worth his contract when he’s healthy, but that’s a big question mark right now.

The Raptors want to re-sign Marion.

“The Shawn variable is a big one,” Colangelo said. “I think we’ll prioritize it to make him a part of this team, because I really do think he’s a good fit, and I think you saw that at the end of the season, when we were really rolling … The message has been that he wants to be here.”

In 27 games with Toronto, Marion averaged 14.3 points and 8.3 rebounds. The Raptors went 9-4 in their last 13 games, and during that span, the Matrix posted 16.2 points and 9.4 rebounds, numbers that are almost the same as his final year in Phoenix.

Toronto is one of the teams with significant cap space this summer, but if the Raptors elect to re-sign Marion, they probably won’t be able to afford any other big-name free agents. He’s a nice fit for what they’re trying to do, but he’s not a long-term solution.

Minnesota moving up…for Tyreke Evans?

A source told The Oklahoman on Wednesday that Minnesota, which has the Nos. 5, 6, 18 and 28 picks, might try to move up to No. 3, not to select Hasheem Thabeet or Rubio, but Tyreke Evans.

The Timberwolves are convinced the Sacramento Kings will take Evans at No. 4 and might want to leapfrog the Kings. But Minnesota also has interest in Rubio and Thabeet, so it doesn’t want to overpay and might keep picks 5 and 6.

Evans stock seems to be on the rise of late, but it’s tough to tell if it’s real, or if it’s just a smokescreen. If the Wolves want Evans and believe the Kings will take him at #4, then the trade makes sense for both teams, assuming the Thunder are happy with James Harden at #5. (The Kings are unlikely to take him at #4 because they already have Kevin Martin at shooting guard.)

But both Minnesota and Sacramento have been long linked with Ricky Rubio, so they may be trying to bluff their way into a position where they can draft the Spanish star.

Memphis GM Gerald Wallace took a lot of heat for trading Pau Gasol to the Lakers. But if we’ve learned anything in the past few days, it’s that Wallace was simply a man ahead of his time.

On Tuesday, we learned that the Bucks agreed to trade Richard Jefferson to the Spurs for Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas and Amir Johnson. (Fabricio Oberto was part of the original deal, but San Antonio sent him to Detroit for Johnson, who was then sent to Milwaukee.)

Regular readers know I’m a Bucks fan, and I spent the last couple of days grumbling on the Sports Bubbler message boards about how we didn’t get anything in return for Jefferson, who is still a pretty good player. When Wallace traded away Gasol, at least he got Javaris Crittenton (who was considered a prospect with upside at the time) and Pau’s brother, Marc, who turned out to be a productive center for the Grizzlies.

Then I wake up today to see that the Cavs and Suns have agreed to go through with that long-rumored trade that will send Shaq to Cleveland for salary cap relief. Who do the Suns get in return? A retiree (Ben Wallace), a bench player with a partially guaranteed contract (Sasha Pavlovic), some cash and a second round pick.

This is the going rate for a Third Team All-NBA center these days.

We knew that this summer had the potential to be a rough one for free agents, but it’s a little surprising to see that good players like O’Neal and Jefferson could be had for virtually nothing. Bucks owner Herb Kohl and Suns owner Robert Sarver realize that their clubs aren’t legitimate contenders, so they don’t see the point in paying the luxury tax just for the privilege of being knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. What kind of an effect these moves have on season ticket purchases remains to be seen.

The bottom line is that if a team is willing to spend, there has never been a better time to acquire talent. You’re not going to get someone like Caron Butler, who plays for a (pretend) contender and has a reasonable contract, but you can get Jefferson, who is overpaid and is on a mediocre team that is up against the luxury tax. And the older the player, the more likely he’s available. Teams aren’t going to give up good players that are in their early- or mid-twenties because the plan is to rebuild before they’re over the hill.

So who might be on the move for a bag of peanuts and some salary cap flexibility? How about Tracy McGrady, Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, Vince Carter, Tyson Chandler, Amare Stoudemire, Jermaine O’Neal, Michael Redd, Ray Allen or Rip Hamilton?

Truth be told, a team like the Suns isn’t going to give the youngish Stoudemire away for cap flexibility alone. But as the price of a star goes down, the price of superstar goes down as well.

It promises to be an interesting summer.

Much of the speculation centers around a deal involving Lee and the #8 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft going to Memphis for the #2 pick and backup center Darko Milicic. This would allow the Knicks to draft international star point guard Ricky Rubio, who has made it known that he wants to play in a major United States sports market.

The Spaniard has a complicated, multi-million dollar contract with his European team, DKV Joventut Barcelona. Before June 30th, the club will grant Rubio’s freedom from his contract for $6.6 million (NBA teams are allowed only to contribute a maximum of $500,000 to buy out a contract of a foreign player), and after June 30th, the price tag expands to $8 million.

Other trade rumors include the Knicks packaging Lee, forward Jared Jeffries and the #8 pick to Toronto for forward Chris Bosh or to Phoenix for disgruntled power forward Amare Stoudemire.

Every so often, I’ll be sitting at a bar, throwing back a few adult beverages with a buddy or two and I’ll pose the following question:

If you could have one current NBA player to build your franchise around, with the goal of winning a NBA title in the next five years – who would it be?

Since the 2009 NBA Playoffs are in their infancy, it seems to be as good of a time as any to kick around this question. My criteria are simple – a franchise player has to be able to carry his team, while being reasonably young and injury-free.

We’ll count down from #10 to #1. My top nine guys were pretty easy to list, but #10 was a bitch. Maybe you can help me decide. Feel free to provide your own top 10.

HONORABLE MENTION

Yao Ming, Rockets (28 years-old)
I love Yao’s post up game, and he is a skilled passer, but the chances are only 60/40 that he’ll be healthy for any given playoffs and those odds are only going to decrease as time wears on. He’s like Robert Downey, Jr. — he’s great at what he does, but you just don’t know if he’s going to be there when you need him.

Chauncey Billups, Nuggets (32)
He seems to be more responsible than ‘Melo for the Nuggets’ great play this season, but he’s 32 years old. Still, his effectiveness depends more on strength, steady play and good shooting than it does his (somewhat limited) athleticism, so he should be able to play into his late thirties.

Al Jefferson, Timberwolves (24)
Jefferson is one of the few young, back-to-the-basket post players in the league. He averaged 23/11 on a bad team, which leads me to believe he could post 19/10 on a playoff team, and should only get better with age.

Amare Stoudemire, Suns (26)
He’s four years younger than our next guy, but he’s already had two serious injuries in his career so one wonders if this is a trend. He also seems to be a little bit on the selfish side and has a rep for being a bad defensive player.

10i. Dirk Nowitzki, Mavs (30)
Nowitzki already took a team to the Finals, and if not for the officials’ love affair with Dwyane Wade, he’d have his ring. But he’s already 30 and seems to have a weird stigma about him. Can he really carry a team to the Finals again?

10h. Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets (24)
I don’t know what it is, but I’m just not sold on ‘Melo as a so-called “franchise” player. He has a rep for being lackadaisical on the defensive end, but there is no doubt he’s a terrific scorer. Still, it should be hard to find fault with a franchise player; Anthony has a chance to alter the course of his career with a good performance in these playoffs.

10g. Carlos Boozer, Jazz (27)
He’s a gritty post player and rebounder, but seems to be a little injury prone. I don’t think he’s worth a max deal given the amount of time he spends in the training room.

10f. Chris Bosh, Raptors (25)
Bosh’s stock has slid with Toronto’s poor season. Throwing the record out for a moment, this is a 6’10” 25 year-old who has averaged better than 22.3 points and 8.7 rebounds in four straight seasons, and players like that don’t fall off of trees.

10e. Kevin Garnett, Celtics (32)
He’s more than just a smooth seven-footer with a great jumper. He’s a defensive force, both on his man and in his ability to raise the level of play of his teammates. He’d be higher, but that knee injury has me worried about his long-term effectiveness. Is he wearing down? (Yes.)

10d. Joe Johnson, Hawks (27)
Given all the talent around him, he should be shooting better than 43% from the field. He’s a very good all around player – sort of a Kobe Lite.

10c. Paul Pierce, Celtics (31)
Pierce plays toe-to-toe with any wing on this list and usually comes up huge in crunch time. He gets the nod over Johnson because he can score in a plethora of ways and is a gritty defender. I love his game, but at 31, how many good years does he have left?

10b. Tim Duncan, Spurs (32)
He’s 32 and his numbers are on the decline. But he still plays big in the playoffs and even if he’s only “Duncan effective” for the next three years, wouldn’t you rather have that than five years of Boozer or Bosh?

10a. Tony Parker, Spurs (26)
It’s hard to tell how much of his success stems from having Duncan (and Manu Ginobili) on his team. He’s lightning quick and is getting more and more efficient from the field. At just 26 years old, he has a ton of seasoning and is a proven winner. It’s hard to beat that.

9. Derrick Rose, Bulls (20)
Some may say that Rose is a little high on this list, but he was thrown to the wolves and came out the other end as the clear Rookie of the Year. He can pretty much get to the rim whenever he wants and once he develops a consistent jumper (which looks like it will happen sooner rather than later), he’s going to be unguardable.

8. Brandon Roy, Blazers (24)
Roy is one of the league’s best young scorers. He can play off the ball or handle the point, and with his 48% accuracy from the field, he’s very efficient with the ball. Given his ability and versatility, I’d have no problem making him the centerpiece of my franchise.

7. Deron Williams, Jazz (24)
6. Chris Paul, Hornets (23)
Why bother writing separate blurbs for these two? They’ll be connected at the hip forever. This time last year, CP3 would be higher, but he’s playing too passive in these playoffs and his team needs him to score. Conversely, Williams is doing everything imaginable to keep the Jazz competitive. The mark of a great point guard is knowing when to get your teammates involved and when to take over the game. Williams seems to have the better killer instinct right now, but Paul’s MVP-worthy 2007-08 season still lingers in my mind.

5. Kevin Durant, Thunder (20)
I’m going with upside here. Durant made a huge leap from last season, increasing his three-point accuracy by almost 14%, while averaging 25.3 points and 6.5 rebounds. And the kid is only 20 – can you imagine what kind of overall game he’ll have in another two or three years?

4. Dwight Howard, Magic (23)
Howard is 6’11”, strong as an ox, and has averaged 21/14 over the last two seasons. His post up game is improving and he’s the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Those are just a few of the reasons why he’s the only PF/C in the top 9. The fact that he’s such a rare commodity makes him that much more valuable.

3. Kobe Bryant, Lakers (30)
2. Dwyane Wade, Heat (27)
This is a pretty tough call because Kobe is three years Wade’s senior, so it’s a safe assumption that Wade will be the better player over the last two years of the five-year period in question. His play this season has been phenomenal, and if you replace Kobe with D-Wade on the Lakers, I don’t think there’s much of a drop-off. Still Kobe is Kobe, and if he fails to win a title this season, there will be no player hungrier for one in the next five years. However, I think the Lakers will get a ring this season, so I’m going with Wade for the next five years.

1. LeBron James, Cavs (24)
No surprise here. He’s already in the top two in the “best player in the world” conversation and he’s six years Kobe’s junior. There is no ceiling on how good he can be. If he shows a Jordan- or Kobe-esque offseason work ethic, he could be the greatest player ever to play the game. If he continues to ignore the post, teams may figure out a way to slow him down (i.e. play off him on the perimeter and send over help on his first dribble). He has drastically improved his defensive intensity and free throw shooting from a year ago, so things are looking good. Very good.

Looking at the list, I think I’d only give a max contract to the first nine players. The fact that I could make an argument for any of those players in the 10th spot tells me that there’s a drop-off in total value after Rose. Part of the problem with salaries around the league these days is that there are far too many max contracts out there. Just because a guy is the best player on any given team, it doesn’t make him worthy of a max deal.

So those are my top 10 – what about you?

Eliminated from the playoffs, it’s time for the Phoenix Suns to look forward to next season. For his part, Steve Nash says that he would like to stay…

After missing the playoffs, Nash could decline an extension if he is unhappy with the offer or the off-season plan. He wants to play four more seasons.

“My first priority is to sit down and listen to Steve and (Suns Managing Partner) Robert (Sarver) and hear what their wish is and what their plan is for the team,” Nash said. “I can be a part of us revamping here.

“I’m under the impression they want to talk an extension, and I do, too. Hopefully we can find ourselves in a position where we can revamp and be back in the playoffs and hopefully be a contender. Hopefully I’ll be a part of the plan.”

Nash, 35, still is a special offensive player. If he maintains his fifth consecutive 50 percent field-goal shooting season in the final two games, Nash would become the first player in NBA history to record three seasons in which he shot 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from 3-point range and 90 percent from the free-throw line. Nash went from averaging 13.8 points under Porter to 19.1 once interim Alvin Gentry restored the team’s Nash-and-dash style. Nash’s assist-to-turnover ratio went from 2.6 -to 1 to 3.7 -to 1.

I have been critical of the Suns’ brass — namely Steve Kerr — all season long.

Back in early February, I wrote about how every move Kerr makes has made the team worse.

His first move as GM was to trade Rudy Fernandez to the Blazers for cash considerations. Then there was the Marion-Shaq trade, which forced Mike D’Antoni out, because he doesn’t know how to coach a slow-it-down team. Seemingly every move Kerr makes backfires.

The Suns are now 26-20, they’ve lost seven of their last 11 games and are hanging on to the #8 seed in the West. They are a shell of that exciting team that we saw in those playoffs two years ago and if Carlos Boozer can come back strong for the Jazz, Phoenix is in serious danger of missing the postseason altogether.

I went into more detail about Kerr’s missteps in this mid-December post.

The Suns are a mess. They probably would have made the playoffs had Amare Stoudemire stayed healthy, but even then, we’re they really a contender to make the Finals? For years, the Suns have been giving away first round picks and it has come back to bite them in the end.

Kerr has a lot of work to do. But here’s the big question: Given the job he’s already done, will he have a chance to clean up his own mess?