Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global icon” and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

2. Dwyane Wade, SG (28)
Wade is two years older than James, but is just as effective when healthy. In fact, staying healthy is his biggest problem. In six-plus seasons, he has missed almost 20% of his team’s games. He isn’t a great three-point shooter, but he’s a terrific all-around scorer and gets to the line as well as anyone in the NBA. Like LeBron, he’ll be seeking a max contract, but since he’s older and somewhat injury-prone, he won’t be as good of a value as his counterpart. I wouldn’t rule out a LeBron-Wade combo in New York, but it’s more likely that the Knicks will want to pair LeBron with a big man, like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. There’s a good chance that Wade will stay put in Miami since it’s a very desirable place to play and the Heat have enough cap space to sign someone like Bosh or Stoudemire in addition to re-signing their superstar. After all, there are worse things in life than being a multi-millionaire living in South Beach.
Note: PO

3. Chris Bosh, FC (26)
Simply stated – Chris Bosh is one of the best young big men in the NBA. He has averaged at least 22.3 points and 8.7 rebounds over the last four seasons. This year, the versatile power forward has stepped up his game and is averaging 28.9 points and 11.5 rebounds. Everyone in New York is talking about a possible LeBron-Bosh combo, and this would be an ideal situation, but with a projected drop in the salary cap, the Knicks will need to move a player or two by the trade deadline to make it work. Bosh is no sure thing to leave Toronto – the franchise proved it was willing to spend when it signed Hedo Turkoglu to give Bosh some help. With the emergence of Andrea Bargnani and the steady play of Jose Calderon, the Raptors have something going.
Note: PO

4. Amare Stoudemire, FC (28)
Stoudemire is a little bigger and stronger than Bosh, but their numbers are almost identical. Stoudemire is two years older, far more injury-prone, and isn’t as good of a defender, but he boasts a much higher FG%. He’s at his best when he catches a pass from Steve Nash off of the duo’s patented pick-and-roll and attacks the rim. If the Knicks are able to woo LeBron but are unable for some reason to get Bosh, Stoudemire would be the next best choice. He’s obviously a great fit in Mike D’Antoni’s system – he averaged 26 points and 9 rebounds in the 2004-05 season – so it’s a logical pairing.
Note: Early Termination Option (ETO)

5. Joe Johnson, SG (29)
The Hawks raised some eyebrows when they traded future Most Improved Player Boris Diaw and two first round draft picks to the Suns for Joe Johnson. Once Diaw won the MIP, it looked like the Suns got the better end of the deal. But with Johnson turning into a 23-point, five-assist, four-rebound kind of player, it sure looks like the Hawks were the ones to benefit most from the trade. It’s likely that Atlanta will do everything possible to retain him, as he’s the biggest reason the team made its return to the playoffs last season. Given his age, scoring ability, versatility and three-point accuracy (39%), he will be highly valued in the summer of 2010.

6. Dirk Nowitzki, PF (32)
Nowitzki’s reputation has taken a bit of a dip over the last couple of seasons, but he’s still averaging 26-and-9 this year. The Mavs are committed to him, so it’s going to be tough for Dirk to turn down the $21.5 million if the two sides are unable to reach an agreement on an extension by next summer. I don’t see Dirk leaving Dallas anytime soon.
Note: ETO

7. Carlos Boozer, PF (27)
Boozer elected to play out the final year of his contract because he found out last summer that his market value didn’t meet his expectations. Instead, he’s focused on having a good season in Utah and proving to everyone that he can stay healthy. Boozer is a great fit as a sidekick, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he landed in Miami, New York or New Jersey/Brooklyn. In fact, the Nets are a trade away from having enough cap space to sign both LeBron/Wade and Boozer, assuming he doesn’t expect a max deal. It’s highly unlikely that he stays in Utah since the Jazz just made a big commitment to Paul Millsap, who has a very similar skill set.

8. Paul Pierce, SG (33)
If Pierce were younger in the summer of 2010, he‘d be higher on this list. Realistically, he’s unlikely to be available because the last year of his deal is worth $21.5 million, and he’s not going to find that kind of money elsewhere. He’ll probably stick in Boston since Kevin Garnett is signed through 2011-12.
Note: PO

9. Manu Ginobili, SG (32)
Ginobili has a reputation for being injury-prone; he has missed almost 17% of his team’s regular season games in seven-plus years. He’s a good three-point shooter (career 38%), and a crafty scorer (14.8 ppg) and passer (3.6 apg). The Spurs have done a great job over the years of re-signing their stars, but if Ginobili becomes available in the summer of 2010, more than a few teams will be interested in signing him to a three- or four-year contract. He always seems to come up big in crunch time.

10. David Lee, PF (27)
Lee was a restricted free agent this past summer and ended up signing a one-year deal to stay with the Knicks. His camp was looking for a deal averaging $8-$10 million per season, but quickly found that the market wasn’t willing to bear that. He led the league in double-doubles in the 2008-09 season, but given the frenetic pace at which the Knicks play, his numbers are a little inflated. Still, he’ll be a great complementary forward wherever he lands.

Honorable Mention:

Yao Ming, C (29)
Yao is a 22/10 guy, but his biggest problem is staying healthy. After playing in all but two games of his first three seasons, Yao has missed more than a third of his team’s games. Yao’s big frame isn’t built for the long haul. This makes him a dicey investment for a team trying to win a championship. Yao would have to terminate a contract that would pay him $17.7 million for the 2010-11 season. It’s doubtful that he’ll find that kind of money on the open market coming off a season-long injury.

Tracy McGrady, SG (31)
T-Mac is one of the league’s most talented and versatile players, but he has two serious issues: staying healthy and an apparent inability to win in the postseason. In the three seasons spanning from 2005-2008, he has missed a quarter of the Rockets’ games. Given his age and health concerns, If he continues to struggle with his knees and back, he could be passed (value-wise) by Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd or Josh Howard.

Shaquille O’Neal, C (38)
Will anyone want to take on a 38-year-old O’Neal? What kind of contract is he willing to play for? If he can help the Cavs win a title, it will boost his stock considerably.

Richard Jefferson, SF (30)
Jefferson would have to opt-out of the final year of his deal ($15.0 million) to become a free agent. It’s doubtful that he’s going to find that kind of money on the open market.

Michael Redd, SG (30)
Redd has a ETO, and is unikely to exercise it due to the value of the final year of his contract ($18.3 million).

Josh Howard, SF (30)
The Mavs have a team option for the 2010-11 season, and given Howard’s off-the-court antics, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be a Maverick for long. If he’s a good citizen, however, he’s sure to stay in Dallas.

Other notables: T.J. Ford, PG (27); Tyson Chandler, C (28); Ray Allen, SG (34); Marcus Camby, C (36); Raymond Felton, PG (26); John Salmons, GF (30); Allen Iverson, G (35); Nate Robinson, G (26); Al Harrington, F (30) and Travis Outlaw, SF (25)

Significant restricted free agents: Rudy Gay, Tyrus Thomas, Ronnie Brewer, Randy Foye, Kyle Lowry and Josh Childress.

Photos from fOTOGLIF

Per the NY Times…

“I want to be in Miami, and I hope everything works out that way,” Wade said Thursday. “I want to be one of those players that stays with one franchise for his entire career.”

“Next year will be a big year for myself and for the team, but the plan has always been to stay with the Heat, and that’s still the plan,” he said. “I think everything will work out.”

The NY Post went a step further, asking Wade if the Knicks or Nets had a chance of signing him.

And while admitting the Heat were still the favorites, for his services, he pretty much dashed any hope of the Nets or Knicks getting him. After saying firmly “The Heat” as the frontrunner, he was asked point blank if the Nets or Knicks had a chance.

“Not in my mind. I’m not thinking about the Knicks or the Nets. Only when we play them,” Wade said.

In a piece about which teams will project to have a lot of cap space next summer, I wrote this about the Heat…

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

There might be a little chicken and the egg thing going on here. In order for the Heat to attract a top free agent like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire, they need to have a commitment from Dwyane Wade that he’ll re-sign. (Last summer, Baron Davis learned this the hard way when Elton Brand bolted for Philly.) But in order to get Wade to re-sign, he needs to know that there’s help on the way.

Right now, the Nets (with a nice core of Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the Knicks (great market) look to be the two biggest threats to stealing Wade away. In his own words, he doesn’t think there’s much of a chance of that happening.

But a lot can happen in a year.

ESPN’s Chad Ford lists nine teams that will have significant cap space next summer. [Insider subscription required.]

1. Nets ($25-$27 million)
2. Knicks ($24 million, assuming they don’t sign anyone for longer than a year)
3. Heat ($20-$22 million)
4. Timberwolves ($16-$18 million)
5. Bulls ($13-$15 million minus whatever they give Tyrus Thomas)
6. Thunder ($14-$15 million)
7. Rockets ($12-$14 million minus whatever they give to Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes)
8. Clippers ($10-$11 million)
9. Kings ($9-$10 million)

This assumes a cap of $53.6 million, which is an optimistic view. The cap could drop below $50 million.

It takes about $14 million of space to sign a max-contract player, so even under these optimistic circumstances, there really are only five teams — the Nets, Knicks, Heat, T-Wolves and Thunder — that will have that kind of space. (The Bulls are likely to keep Thomas and the Rockets are likely to retain Landry and Hayes, though they could make another move here or there to put them in position to add a superstar.)

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

The Thunder are compelling because they have a great young nucleus that includes Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green and James Harden. It would be a terrific spot for a big like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire to go if they are serious about trying to win a championship.

The Nets are also appealing, though it would be nice if the team’s location were settled by next summer. Right now the plan is to play in Brooklyn starting in the 2011-12 season, so this would be a good landing spot for a star looking to up his Q score. They have an All-Star caliber point guard (Devin Harris), an up-and-coming off guard (Courtney Lee) and a rising star at center (Brook Lopez). Considering most of the major free agents next summer play off guard, small forward or power forward, the Nets will be a major player.

The Timberwolves are viewed as kind of a mess, and it will be next to impossible for them to attract LeBron or Wade to the Twin Cities. They would have an outside chance at Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire, but they are pretty set up front with Kevin Love and Al Jefferson. Joe Johnson would appear to be the best fit if he were willing to leave Atlanta.

Finally, the Knicks are in great shape financially, but if they can’t retain David Lee, they don’t have a whole lot of talent to attract a superstar who is more interested in titles than he is in playing in the biggest market in the country.

Ultimately, I think the Heat will acquire/sign an impact player like Bosh, Stoudemire or Boozer that will prompt Dwyane Wade to stay put. Those three bigs are likely to have new homes next season, though I think Bosh has the best chance to stay put with the moves that Toronto has made this summer. Joe Johnson will probably stick in Atlanta.

That leaves LeBron. I think the Cavs need to make a Finals appearance to keep him, though since they signed Anderson Varejao to a long-term deal, they don’t have the cap space to sign a big-name free agent to replace Shaquille O’Neal if they elect not to bring him back for another season. Will LeBron stay if the Cavs lose in the Finals and Shaq’s contract expires? The Cavs won’t have a lot of options in the summer of 2010 unless they can swing a trade to bring a superstar in his 20′s to Cleveland to be LeBron’s sidekick.

For a preview of the 2010 free agents, click here.

Now that the dust has pretty much settled in the 2009 NBA offseason, ESPN’s Chad Ford previews the free agents that are likely to be available next summer. [Insider subscription required.]

No subscription? Check out our preview from last December. I plan to update it once this year’s restricted free agents are settled, as there are still a few looking for long-term deals.

Right now, it’s looking like the 2010 unrestricted free agent class could include the likes of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming, Paul Pierce, David Lee, Manu Ginobili, Shaquille O’Neal, Ray Allen, Tracy McGrady, Tyson Chandler, Michael Redd, Richard Jefferson, Ramon Sessions, Ray Felton, Nate Robinson, Travis Outlaw, John Salmons and Al Harrington.

I expect at least a few of those names will strike long-term deals before next summer, but still, that’s quite the list, and it doesn’t even include the potential restricted free agents from the draft class of 2006 (i.e. Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rajon Rondo, Rudy Gay, etc.)

The short answer is “I don’t know.”

Not enough? I don’t blame you. I wrote the following during my running diary on draft day:

There’s a rumor that the Warriors might send Andris Biedrins, Marco Belinelli, Brandan Wright and the #7 pick to Phoenix for Amare Stoudemire. That seems like an awful lot to give up given the trades we’ve seen go down in recent days. But Stoudemire is a borderline franchise player, so a good center (Biedrins) and three prospects (Belinelli, Wright and the #7 pick) doesn’t seem crazy.

The Warriors drafted Stephen Curry when he fell to #7. At that point, it wasn’t clear whether or not he’d be headed to Phoenix as part of this trade. Paul Coro of AZCentral.com reported that he “likely” was headed to the Suns.

Golden State’s selection of Davidson point guard Stephen Curry at No. 7 was likely made for the Suns as part of an Amaré Stoudemire trade that can’t be completed until Wednesday. That is because Phoenix would be acquiring Warriors center Andris Biedrins, a base-year compensation player, as part of a Stoudemire deal that would include more Warriors players, possibly power forward Brandan Wright and/or shooting guard Marco Belinelli.

The Suns were hoping they could land Curry or Arizona power forward Jordan Hill with the Warriors’ seventh pick but had their choice after Minnesota took neither with its fifth and sixth picks.

The next day, Coro reported that the deal was all but done, but hinged on whether or not Curry was included…

With its first-round pick, Phoenix selected 6-foot-10 Louisville forward Earl Clark, but the bigger news was that sources said the Suns expect to complete a trade with Golden State that would send Amare Stoudemire to the Warriors next week for Davidson point guard and No. 7 pick Stephen Curry, center Andris Biedrins, power forward Brandan Wright and shooting guard Marco Belinelli.

If Curry is not included, the deal will not be made. A trade cannot be completed until Wednesday because Biedrins, a 23-year-old Latvian 7-footer, is a base-year compensation player whose trade value will not match his contract number until then. The deal needs Biedrins at his $9 million salary, which stays flat through 2013-14, to make the trade work under NBA financial parameters.

Later, Golden State head coach Don Nelson said that the Warriors were going to keep Curry.

Nelson firmly declared the Warriors won’t trade Curry on Friday, quashing suspicions about Golden State’s intentions in selecting the former Davidson star who led the nation in scoring last season.

“He can unpack his bags and relax,” Nelson said after welcoming Curry to Oakland. “He can buy a house. We drafted him because we think he’s a terrific player that fits right into our program. He ain’t going anyplace.”

Coro tried to clarify the Suns-Warriors deal on Friday.

The Suns had an agreement in principle with Golden State about a deal that would send Amaré Stoudemire to the Warriors for Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright, Marco Belinelli and the No. 7 pick. It was the Suns’ understanding that the Warriors were drafting Curry for them.

But with Biedrins’ base-year compensation status, a deal can’t be completed immediately because his cap number is lower than his actual $9 million salary until July. The Suns were expecting to have to wait about two weeks (until July 8th) for the deal to be completed.

That is a lot of time, especially when there already is a lot of talk out of Golden State about the Warriors keeping Curry. That about-face apparently would nix the deal for the Suns.

Even today, there is still a belief in Phoenix that the deal will get pushed through under the initial agreement. But Golden State may have been shocked that Curry was available and is having a change of heart. There was nothing binding about the agreement.

Coro wrote yesterday that a deal sending Stoudemire to Phoenix was not dead yet.

More insiders have backed up the assertion that Phoenix thought it had a done deal going into the Warriors’ No. 7 pick on Thursday night and believed it had Davidson point guard Stephen Curry once the pick came up. If the Suns did not think that Curry was Phoenix-bound, would they have taken UCLA point guard Jrue Holiday at No. 14 instead of Louisville forward Earl Clark?

We don’t know that answer. We just know the Suns did not think it was very likely that Holiday would drop to them at 14 (he went 17th to Philadelphia). If anything, it appeared that Holiday was rising as the draft neared. For the Suns, the call on Holiday was going to be weighing a short track record at UCLA against the potential star quality of a hard-working, defensively strong 6-foot-4 point guard who has the court vision and willingness to pass. But they really did like Clark all along and said weeks ahead of the draft that length and defense could be priorities with the pick.

In the end, the Suns really were closer to getting Arizona power forward Jordan Hill than Curry. If Golden State planned to keep Curry all along if he was available, the Suns never had a chance at him. Had Curry gone higher as expected, the deal could have get done with the Warriors taking Hill for the Suns.

All right, so what is going on here?

It sounds as if the Warriors and Suns made an agreement for a Stoudemire swap, and when Golden State took Curry at #7, the Suns thought that pick was made for them. If the Warriors agreed to send Curry to Phoenix, but then had a change of heart, then they reneged on the deal. Being surprised about Curry’s availability at #7 isn’t a fair defense because the two teams would have had to have discussions about all of the possible scenarios. At some point, Suns GM Steve Kerr must have said “if Curry is available at #7, we want him as part of this deal” and Warriors GM Larry Riley either agreed or disagreed. If he agreed, then the Warriors reneged. If he disagreed, then the Suns (or Coro) are being disingenuous about Curry actually being part of this deal. If the two didn’t discuss the possibility of Curry falling to #7, then both general managers are incompetent.

It’s not like Curry was a sure bet to go in the top six. Sure, Minnesota’s decision to draft two pure point guards back-to-back was unorthodox, but the Kings could have easily went with Ricky Rubio at #4 and the T-Wolves might have paired Tyreke Evans with Jonny Flynn at #5 and #6. Evans had a terrific workout in Minnesota and is big enough to play off guard, so it wouldn’t have been shocking had Minnesota passed on Curry there.

One thing is certain — it’s going to be interesting to watch this unfold. Curry didn’t work out for Golden State and most indications is that he didn’t want to land in Oakland. He is saying all of the right things now, but he’s a mature kid, so that’s no surprise. Nelson and Riley might be covering their bases when they say that he’s not going to be traded. If the Stoudemire deal falls through due to one of his health issues (eye, knee), then they don’t want to alienate Curry.

As for a Monta Ellis/Stephen Curry backcourt, I think it can work. Ellis is more of a slasher, while Curry is a shooter. Even though their both small, their games actually complement each other more than most people think. Nelson isn’t going to be concerned about size because he feels that with the pace at which the Warriors play, an Ellis/Curry combo will put a lot of pressure on the offensive end of the court and in transition.

If a deal does finally go through, it will be interesting to see if Curry is included. After all of this drama, I don’t see the Suns settling for just Biedrins, Wright and Belinelli (even though that’s not a bad deal given this economy and the certainty that Stoudemire will eventually change teams in the next year). If Golden State is set on keeping Curry, but still wants to do business, they may have to throw in a future first round pick (or include Anthony Randolph instead of Wright) to sweeten the pot for the Suns. Golden State would then move forward with Ellis and Curry in the backcourt, Stephen Jackson or Corey Maggette at small forward, Randolph at power forward and Stoudemire in the middle. Conversely, the Suns would then rebuild around Clark, Biedrins and Wright, and whomever they get for Steve Nash.

That appears to be the case, at least according to ESPN’s sources.

After the Suns spent several days taking and making phone calls on potential trades for Amare Stoudemire and Shaquille O’Neal, NBA front-office sources told ESPN.com that Phoenix — having received a series of underwhelming proposals for Stoudemire — prefers now to leave its core intact for the rest of the season to see if new coach Alvin Gentry can do more with this group than the outgoing Terry Porter.

“I got the impression today that [the Suns] are standing pat,” said one source with knowledge of the team’s thinking.

Said another source close to the situation: “That is very accurate.”

Officials from two other teams told ESPN.com on Monday that the Suns’ willingness to consider offers for Stoudemire has been scaled back considerably from last week, when Stoudemire himself seemed resigned to being sent elsewhere, telling reporters: “I know for sure, wherever I go, we’re going to definitely be playoff contenders.”

At a news conference to announce Gentry’s hiring, [Steve] Kerr stopped short of promising that the Suns would sit out the deadline completely, but did add: “I’d like to keep what we have and go forward and see what we can do,” Kerr said.

Well, well, well…it appears that cooler heads may have prevailed. It could be that the Suns realized that they weren’t going to get equal value for their superstar or they may have decided that he wasn’t the problem after all. The dismissal of Terry Porter would indicate that management places a fair amount of blame for the Suns’ inconsistent play at his feet.

After all this build up, the Suns may very well decide to keep Stoudemire through the end of the season. Salary cap ramifications aside, I think this is the right call.

Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global icon” and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

2. Dwyane Wade, SG (28)
Wade is two years older than James, but is just as effective when healthy. In fact, staying healthy is his biggest problem. In six-plus seasons, he has missed almost 20% of his team’s games. He isn’t a great three-point shooter, but he’s a terrific all-around scorer and gets to the line as well as anyone in the NBA. Like LeBron, he’ll be seeking a max contract, but since he’s older and somewhat injury-prone, he won’t be as good of a value as his counterpart. I wouldn’t rule out a LeBron-Wade combo in New York, but it’s more likely that the Knicks will want to pair LeBron with a big man, like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. There’s a good chance that Wade will stay put in Miami since it’s a very desirable place to play and the Heat have enough cap space to sign someone like Bosh or Stoudemire in addition to re-signing their superstar. After all, there are worse things in life than being a multi-millionaire living in South Beach.
Note: PO

3. Chris Bosh, FC (26)
Simply stated – Chris Bosh is one of the best young big men in the NBA. He has averaged at least 22.3 points and 8.7 rebounds over the last four seasons. This year, the versatile power forward has stepped up his game and is averaging 28.9 points and 11.5 rebounds. Everyone in New York is talking about a possible LeBron-Bosh combo, and this would be an ideal situation, but with a projected drop in the salary cap, the Knicks will need to move a player or two by the trade deadline to make it work. Bosh is no sure thing to leave Toronto – the franchise proved it was willing to spend when it signed Hedo Turkoglu to give Bosh some help. With the emergence of Andrea Bargnani and the steady play of Jose Calderon, the Raptors have something going.
Note: PO

4. Amare Stoudemire, FC (28)
Stoudemire is a little bigger and stronger than Bosh, but their numbers are almost identical. Stoudemire is two years older, far more injury-prone, and isn’t as good of a defender, but he boasts a much higher FG%. He’s at his best when he catches a pass from Steve Nash off of the duo’s patented pick-and-roll and attacks the rim. If the Knicks are able to woo LeBron but are unable for some reason to get Bosh, Stoudemire would be the next best choice. He’s obviously a great fit in Mike D’Antoni’s system – he averaged 26 points and 9 rebounds in the 2004-05 season – so it’s a logical pairing.
Note: Early Termination Option (ETO)

5. Joe Johnson, SG (29)
The Hawks raised some eyebrows when they traded future Most Improved Player Boris Diaw and two first round draft picks to the Suns for Joe Johnson. Once Diaw won the MIP, it looked like the Suns got the better end of the deal. But with Johnson turning into a 23-point, five-assist, four-rebound kind of player, it sure looks like the Hawks were the ones to benefit most from the trade. It’s likely that Atlanta will do everything possible to retain him, as he’s the biggest reason the team made its return to the playoffs last season. Given his age, scoring ability, versatility and three-point accuracy (39%), he will be highly valued in the summer of 2010.

6. Dirk Nowitzki, PF (32)
Nowitzki’s reputation has taken a bit of a dip over the last couple of seasons, but he’s still averaging 26-and-9 this year. The Mavs are committed to him, so it’s going to be tough for Dirk to turn down the $21.5 million if the two sides are unable to reach an agreement on an extension by next summer. I don’t see Dirk leaving Dallas anytime soon.
Note: ETO

7. Carlos Boozer, PF (27)
Boozer elected to play out the final year of his contract because he found out last summer that his market value didn’t meet his expectations. Instead, he’s focused on having a good season in Utah and proving to everyone that he can stay healthy. Boozer is a great fit as a sidekick, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he landed in Miami, New York or New Jersey/Brooklyn. In fact, the Nets are a trade away from having enough cap space to sign both LeBron/Wade and Boozer, assuming he doesn’t expect a max deal. It’s highly unlikely that he stays in Utah since the Jazz just made a big commitment to Paul Millsap, who has a very similar skill set.

8. Paul Pierce, SG (33)
If Pierce were younger in the summer of 2010, he‘d be higher on this list. Realistically, he’s unlikely to be available because the last year of his deal is worth $21.5 million, and he’s not going to find that kind of money elsewhere. He’ll probably stick in Boston since Kevin Garnett is signed through 2011-12.
Note: PO

9. Manu Ginobili, SG (32)
Ginobili has a reputation for being injury-prone; he has missed almost 17% of his team’s regular season games in seven-plus years. He’s a good three-point shooter (career 38%), and a crafty scorer (14.8 ppg) and passer (3.6 apg). The Spurs have done a great job over the years of re-signing their stars, but if Ginobili becomes available in the summer of 2010, more than a few teams will be interested in signing him to a three- or four-year contract. He always seems to come up big in crunch time.

10. David Lee, PF (27)
Lee was a restricted free agent this past summer and ended up signing a one-year deal to stay with the Knicks. His camp was looking for a deal averaging $8-$10 million per season, but quickly found that the market wasn’t willing to bear that. He led the league in double-doubles in the 2008-09 season, but given the frenetic pace at which the Knicks play, his numbers are a little inflated. Still, he’ll be a great complementary forward wherever he lands.

Honorable Mention:

Yao Ming, C (29)
Yao is a 22/10 guy, but his biggest problem is staying healthy. After playing in all but two games of his first three seasons, Yao has missed more than a third of his team’s games. Yao’s big frame isn’t built for the long haul. This makes him a dicey investment for a team trying to win a championship. Yao would have to terminate a contract that would pay him $17.7 million for the 2010-11 season. It’s doubtful that he’ll find that kind of money on the open market coming off a season-long injury.

Tracy McGrady, SG (31)
T-Mac is one of the league’s most talented and versatile players, but he has two serious issues: staying healthy and an apparent inability to win in the postseason. In the three seasons spanning from 2005-2008, he has missed a quarter of the Rockets’ games. Given his age and health concerns, If he continues to struggle with his knees and back, he could be passed (value-wise) by Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd or Josh Howard.

Shaquille O’Neal, C (38)
Will anyone want to take on a 38-year-old O’Neal? What kind of contract is he willing to play for? If he can help the Cavs win a title, it will boost his stock considerably.

Richard Jefferson, SF (30)
Jefferson would have to opt-out of the final year of his deal ($15.0 million) to become a free agent. It’s doubtful that he’s going to find that kind of money on the open market.

Michael Redd, SG (30)
Redd has a ETO, and is unikely to exercise it due to the value of the final year of his contract ($18.3 million).

Josh Howard, SF (30)
The Mavs have a team option for the 2010-11 season, and given Howard’s off-the-court antics, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be a Maverick for long. If he’s a good citizen, however, he’s sure to stay in Dallas.

Other notables: T.J. Ford, PG (27); Tyson Chandler, C (28); Ray Allen, SG (34); Marcus Camby, C (36); Raymond Felton, PG (26); John Salmons, GF (30); Allen Iverson, G (35); Nate Robinson, G (26); Al Harrington, F (30) and Travis Outlaw, SF (25)

Significant restricted free agents: Rudy Gay, Tyrus Thomas, Ronnie Brewer, Randy Foye, Kyle Lowry and Josh Childress.

Photos from fOTOGLIF