It’s hard to react to this without having all the facts, but the Browns under Randy Lerner are starting to rival the Oakland Raiders and the Washington Redskins as the most dysfunctional franchises in the NFL. As I discussed yesterday, it all comes down to Randy Lerner.

Why would the General Manager hand-picked by Eric Mangini be fired after only nine months? He’s not coaching the team, and frankly most of his moves have made sense. He hasn’t destroyed the cap and he traded guys like Winslow and Edwards for draft picks. His draft doesn’t look great so far, but for years Browns fans have complained about not drafting offensive linemen, and Kokinis picked up a center in the first round. He may not look like a pro-bowler now, but it’s not crazy to expect Alex Mack to anchor the line for years with Joe Thomas.

Problems must exist behind the scenes, but will Randy Lerner have the guts to face the media and explain himself here? With a control-freak like Eric Mangini, who’s going to come in and run this team?

I’m going to channel my inner Peter King and dole out a crap load of quick-hit thoughts on last weekend’s NFL draft, which by the way, was one of the more unpredictable drafts I have ever witnessed.

Below are 65 observations from the 2009 NFL Draft. Why 65? I don’t know – don’t worry about it. Originally I came up with 62, but I know that some people freak out when things aren’t in round numbers, so I added three more. But the number 65 means nothing, so don’t waste time searching for its meaning.

Obviously these are all my opinions and feel free to debate them. But before you do, I already know that it supposedly takes three seasons to fully grade a draft and that no prospect is a sure thing. Again, I’m projecting here – so lighten up and let’s strike up some good debates.

1. Outside of the fact that he’s now a millionaire and could buy a small country, I kind of feel bad for Matthew Stafford. You know some halfwit fan or media member can’t wait to utter the comment, “For $72 million, he should have made that pass.” I hate the fact that money plays such a huge role in sports because when you get down to it, completing a pass, making a catch or kicking a field goal has nothing to do with how many zeros are on your paycheck.

2. I know I’m not saying anything new here, but the rookie salary structure is a joke. When teams don’t even want a top 5 pick anymore because of the financial burden that comes with it, there’s a huge problem.

3. The kid could turn out to be the next Ryan Leaf on the field, but Lion fans have to at least take comfort in the fact that Matthew Stafford is saying all the right things at this point. He did an interview with the NFL Network on Sunday and he talked about how he wants to be a starter right away, but also wants to learn and be patient in his development. From all accounts, he looks like he has a great head on his shoulders.

4. If Tyson Jackson turns out to be the next Richard Seymour like Chiefs’ GM Scott Pioli believes, then nobody is going to remember (or care) that he was taken with the third overall pick in a weak draft class.

5. Out of all the prospects to come out of this draft class, I’m going to find myself rooting the hardest for Aaron Curry. It was incredibly heartwarming to see him bring a 12-year old leukemia survivor to the draft and it was touching to see how emotionally happy he was on the stage after his name was announced. You can tell that the young man takes nothing for granted in life.

6. Jet fans are excited that they have a quarterback for the future, as well they should be. But I can’t help but think about how if Mark Sanchez had waited to come out next year, there’s a good chance he would be the third quarterback taken behind Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy. Yet he was a top 5 pick in this year’s draft and the Jets had to trade two high picks and three players in order to select him. Yikes.

7. I absolutely loved what Cleveland did in the first round. They not only saved a truck load of money by trading out of the top 5, but they also didn’t reach for a prospect just to fill a need and acquired a ton of picks by continuously trading down.

8. I loved all of Cleveland’s wheeling and dealing in the first round, but not as much as I loved the acquisition of safety Abram Elam as part of the deal for the No. 5 pick. He is one of the most underrated players in the league and he obviously is a fit for Eric Mangini’s defensive scheme. Besides having the desire to get out of the top 5, Elam was the key component to that entire trade for the Browns.

9. Some may hammer the Browns for taking a center in the first round, but many considered Alex Mack the type of prospect that could change the way teams draft the position in the future. Plus, you have to love how Cleveland continues to upgrade the most important unit on the football field: the offensive line.

10. The Bengals never learn do they? Andre Smith is incredibly talented but he carries more baggage with him than a 787.

11. Darrius Heyward-Bey could turn out to be a solid deep threat in the NFL, but Michael Crabtree has the potential to be one of the best receivers in the game for a very long time. Not that he cares, but Al Davis is nuts for passing on the talented Texas Tech product.

12. Speaking of Crabtree, one of the potential reasons of why he fell as far as he did could be because of his attitude. Cleveland was apparently turned off by his “diva” persona during a pre-draft visit, but if there is any person that can humble the young man, it’s 49ers’ head coach Mike Singletary.

13. The Jaguars did incredibly well in the first two rounds. It wasn’t a flashy draft, but how often does a team land two starting-caliber offensive tackles in their first two picks? This was a team crippled by injuries along the O-line last season, so adding Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton was fantastic. (Somewhere, Maurice Jones-Drew is smiling.)

14. I’ve hammered the Packers for much of the offseason because of the lack of attention paid to filling needs in their new 3-4 defense. But GM Ted Thompson came through at No. 9 with the selection of B.J. Raji, who could play end this year and then nose next year if the team decides not to bring back Ryan Pickett, who becomes a free agent after this season.

15. I was surprised the Bills passed on offensive tackle Michael Oher at No. 11, but teams were worried about his ability to grasp an offense at the next level so at least Buffalo addressed its need for a pass rusher in Penn State defensive end Aaron Maybin.

16. Should anyone really be surprised that new Broncos’ head coach Josh McDaniels went offense at No. 12?

17. Speaking of that pick, Knowshon Moreno has the best vision of any running back taken in this draft. He’s a stud and should do well in Denver.

18. Washington got one of the steals of the first round when Texas defensive end Brian Orakpo fell to them at No. 13. He was an absolute force against Oklahoma and Texas Tech last year and should be motivated after falling out of the top 10.

19. I know he had a brutal showing at the NFL scouting combine, but trust me – Malcolm Jenkins can play. He was highly productive at Ohio State and was less of a risk than fellow cornerback prospect Vontae Davis, even though Davis has the superior athletic skills. (More on Davis later.)

20. You have to hand it to the Texans. This was the second year in a row that some believed Houston would address the running back position in the first round, but they continued to build their defense with the selection of linebacker Brian Cushing. Maybe 2009 will finally be the year this team makes a playoff run.

21. Larry English might not be an every down player at the next level, but what a pick by the Chargers. They really didn’t have a ton of needs to address and English was a monster in the MAC last year. The Bolts will find ways to get him on the field and don’t be surprised if he piles up 7-10 sacks next year.

22. I have several issues with the Bucs’ decision to draft Josh Freeman in the first round. First and foremost, in a better quarterback class, he might be a second or even third rounder given how raw he is as a prospect. Secondly, why the hell did Tampa trade up to get him? Did they really think Denver was going to take him at No. 18 with so many holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball?

23. Weren’t Jon Gruden and GM Bruce Allen ridiculed and essentially (in part) ushered out of Tampa for concentrating too much on the quarterback position? Yet, the new regime of Raheem Morris and Mark Dominik have already re-signed Luke McCown, signed free agent Byron Leftwich and drafted Josh Freeman. And oh-by-the-way, they still have Brian Griese and Josh Johnson on the roster. I have no idea what Morris and Dominik are doing in terms of a game plan to rebuild the Bucs.

24. Isn’t Jeremy Maclin essentially the same receiver as DeSean Jackson? I’m surprised the Eagles didn’t add a bigger complement to Jackson if they were focused on drafting a receiver in the early rounds.

25. It’s easy to slam Detroit’s selection of Brandon Pettigrew at No. 20, but what is always considered a young quarterback’s best friend? A tight end – and Pettigrew is one of the better tight end prospects to come out in some time.

26. That said, how did the Lions not address their middle linebacker need with the No. 20 pick? Rey Maualuga was there for the taking and he would have filled a bigger need than Pettigrew. Jordon Dizon is your middle linebacker, Lions? Seriously?

27. One more note on the Lions drafting Pettigrew; tight end is also viewed as an extension of the O-line, which was a major need for Detroit coming into the draft. For better or worse, Pettigrew was essentially Martin Mayhew’s answer in addressing that need.

28. I was shocked that the Vikings selected Percy Harvin at No. 22 – not because they didn’t need a receiver, but because it was reported that Brad Childress had removed all prospects with poor character from his draft board. This was just another example of how you can’t believe everything reported before the draft.

29. Baltimore got a first round steal in offensive tackle Michael Oher. As previously noted, some teams were worried about whether or not Oher could grasp a pro offense, but at No. 23, he was worth the risk.

30. Peria Jerry fits a major need for the Falcons – or does he? Scouts believe he’s an under tackle at the next level and Atlanta already has a productive player at that position in Jonathan Babineaux. Obviously Thomas Dimitroff and Mike Smith feel as though Jerry can play the nose and after the draft those two compiled last year, I trust their judgment.

31. Vontae Davis doesn’t really seem like a Bill Parcells-type does he? Regardless, he’s loaded with talent and if he can keep his emotions and attitude in check, he could turn out be a solid corner.

32. My coworker John Paulsen and I are going to do more on this topic soon (so check back), but I thought the Packers’ deal with the Patriots at No. 26 was the worst trade of the first round. Green Bay filled a huge need with the selection of outside linebacker Clay Matthews, but they gave up a second round pick and two third rounders in doing so. Considering Matthews might be one of the more overrated prospects in the draft, I was shocked that GM Ted Thompson would give up so much for that pick.

33. It’ll be interesting to see which receiver taken in the bottom of the first round (Hakeem Nicks or Kenny Britt) goes on to have the more productive career. They both have great hands, above-average speed and will play for decent offenses in New York (Giants) and Tennessee, respectively.

34. How did Chris “Beanie” Wells fall all the way to No. 31? I know there are injury concerns, but he had the best blend of size, speed and strength of any running back prospect in the draft and Arizona might have gotten a steal.

35. Some have compared Western Michigan safety Louis Delmas to Bob Sanders. Too bad Delmas might rot in Detroit.

36. Far be it for me to question Bill Belichick on draft day, but Patrick Chung at No. 34 in the second round? That’s freaking high.

37. Ohio State prospect prediction #1: Linebacker James Laurinaitis will struggle finding a position in the pros.

38. Ohio State prospect prediction #2: Brian Robiskie is going to flourish as a quality possession receiver in the NFL.

39. I love Alphonso Smith and think he could turn out to be a solid corner, but why would the Broncos give up a first round pick in 2010 to trade up in the second round of a weak draft?

40. As long as I’m crapping on the Broncos, did anyone tell Josh McDaniels and Brian Xanders that teams are usually more successful when they trade down, not up? Every time they announced a trade, it was usually Denver moving up. I don’t necessarily dislike the prospects they wound up with, but their approach in this draft was bizarre.

41. Whose mother did Rey Maualuga punch for him to fall all the way to No. 38? Nice pick, Bengals.

42. Whose baby did Duke Robinson punch for him to slip all the way into the fifth round? How the hell does a first-round talent drop to the No. 163 overall pick? Nice value, Carolina.

43. Before the draft, word was that the Patriots were absolutely in love with Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler at No. 23. After completely trading out of the first round, New England snagged Butler with the No. 41 overall pick in the second round. That’s the genius of Bill Belichick on draft day.

44. See No. 38, but replace the name Alphonso Smith with Everrette Brown, and the word Broncos with Panthers.

45. What better team for Pat White to go to than the one that founded the “Wildcat” formation last season?

46. I have no idea how he fits into an already stacked Giants’ linebacker corps, but I love their pick of Virginia’s Clint Sintim at No. 45. The guy was a monster in college.

47. I think it was hilarious that Mel Kiper and Todd McShay bashed the Raiders’ selection of Michael Mitchell with the No. 47 pick in the second round (they said they could have gotten him much later), yet the Bears were reportedly ready to take him at No. 49. If Mitchell was good enough for Jerry Angelo in the second round (I said second, not first – Lord knows Angelo can’t judge talent in the first), then chances are he’s a better prospect than Kiper and McShay thought he was.

48. The Eagles took two boom or bust picks in Jeremy Maclin and “Shaddy” McCoy in the first two rounds, but there’s no question they added some athletic talent with each of the selections.

49. I don’t care what anyone says – William Moore (Falcons) was the steal of the second round. I know he had a bad senior year, but he was nicked up and had he come out after his junior season, he would have been a top 15 pick.

50. I still prefer NFL Network’s coverage to ESPN’s, but Marshall Faulk and Jamie Dukes continue to bring nothing to the table. And what was with the on-going camera trick where they kept making everyone’s heads look bigger? It was funny once, but by the fourth time enough was enough.

51. Penn State wideout Derrick Williams (Lions’ third round pick) could turn out to be the next great kick returner in the NFL.

52. Arizona might have found a gem in the third round in Alabama safety Rashad Johnson. He’s not a thumper, but some have compared him to a poor man’s Ed Reed.

53. If Wisconsin’s Travis Beckum (Giants’ third round pick) could ever stay healthy, he could have a nice career as a pass-catching tight end.

54. The Bears got the steal of the fourth round in Vandy cornerback D.J. Moore. The only reason why he dropped so far was because of his lack of size (he’s only 5’8”). If he were two inches taller, he would have probably been a second rounder. Yet another mid-round gem by GM Jerry Angelo.

55. Speaking of mid-round Jerry Angelo gems, throw Ohio State outside linebacker Marcus Freeman and Abilene Christian wideout Johnny Knox into that group, too.

56. Atlanta had a really solid second day. Quarterbacks mostly stayed away of cornerback Chris Owens (third round) at San Jose State last year and Lawrence Sidbury (forth round) of Richmond could turn out to be a solid pass rusher. All in all, the Falcons filled needs and got a ton of defensive help throughout the draft.

57. I hate to crap on any prospect, because clearly they have more talent than I do, but I think Seattle wasted their sixth round pick on Rutgers’ quarterback Mike Teel. He has good arm strength, but he really struggles in his decision making I doubt he’s long for the NFL. But still – good luck, Mike!

58. I know I hammered Packers’ GM Ted Thompson for his first round trade at No. 31 on this list, but he really did put together a solid draft. Georgia defensive end Jarius Wynn was a nice find in the sixth round.

59. Someone explain to me how Fresno State tight end Bear Pascoe is not on his way to Chicago right now.

60. Your 2009 Marques Colston Seventh Round Sleeper Award goes to: Rutgers’ wide receiver Tiguan Underwood (Jaguars).

61. I know teams are always enamored with size and arm strength when it comes to drafting quarterbacks, but how do guys like Mike Teel and Tom Brandstater get selected before Graham Harrell? I know Harrell had grossly inflated numbers because he played in Texas Tech’s offensive system, but I still can’t believe that no team took a flier on him in the seventh round, yet Bradstater and Teel go in the sixth.

62. After not selecting a running back the entire draft, keep an eye on the Texans’ interest in Edgerrin James if/when he is released by the Cardinals.

63. After not selecting a pass-rusher in the entire draft, keep an eye on the Patriots’ interest in free agent defensive end Jason Taylor.

64. One has to wonder what Anquan Boldin’s fate is after the Giants and Titans each drafted first round receivers. Are the Ravens still a possibility? And would Arizona be willing to scale back their trade demands?

65. Quote of the NFL draft weekend: “How fitting is it that this year’s Mr. Irreverent is a kicker!” – Rich Eisen, NFL Network.

Other 2009 NFL Draft Coverage:

NFL Draft: 5 Second Day Steals
NFL Draft: 5 First Round Values
NFL Draft: 5 Questionable Day 1 Decisions
NFL Draft: 5 Day 1 Winners
Official 2009 NFL Draft Post & Rumor Mill

It’s absolutely ridiculous to claim that a team “won” on draft day when none of the players have even played one down in the NFL yet. But it is fair to debate which teams made quality decisions on draft day (i.e. trades, overall maneuvering, etc.), and below are five franchises that I thought made out well after the first two rounds.

1. Cleveland Browns
Alex Mack, C (21); Brian Robiskie, WR (36); Mohamed Massaquoi, WR (50); David Veikune, DE (52)
The Browns became one of the day one draft winners the moment they were able to trade out of the No. 5 pick, because there wasn’t a prospect at that spot that Cleveland loved and they saved a ton of money getting out of the top 5. So they were able to make a deal with the Jets and landed the 17th and 52nd picks, as well as three players (Kenyon Coleman, Brett Ratliff and Abram Elam) that used to play for Eric Mangini in New York. The underrated Elam is the best of the group and should start at strong safety after the team decided to not re-sign Sean Jones. After the deal with the Jets, the Browns made yet another move, trading the 17th overall pick to Tampa Bay for the 19th and 191st selections. Still not satisfied, the Browns again traded back, this time dealing the 19th pick to Philadelphia for the 21st and 195th selections. When they finally did select a player at No. 21, they got the best center prospect in the draft in Mack, who joins a solid offensive line that already features Eric Steinbach and Joe Thomas. Although I was surprised that they passed on OLB Everrette Brown early in the second, they got a polished receiver in Brian Robiskie and then eventually filled their linebacker need with Veikune, who is raw but has good upside. Massaquoi was a bit of a surprise, especially considering the Robiskie selection earlier in the round, but it’s hard to criticize what Mangini and new GM George Kokinis did on the first day. It also must be noted how well the Browns played everything before the draft, keeping things close to the vest and not tipping their hand. Obviously that trade with the Jets for the No. 5 pick had to be in the works for a while given the players involved.

2. New England Patriots
Patrick Chung, S (34); Ron Brace, DT (40); Darius Butler, CB (41); Sebastian Vollmer, OT (58)
I thought they reached on Chung at the top of the second round, but it’s hard to question Bill Belichick on draft day and it was interesting that safeties started flying off the board once Detroit took Louis Delmas at No. 33 and New England followed with Chung with the next pick. So maybe Belichick knew that Chung would fly off the board if he didn’t reach at 34. The Pats got two players in Brace and Butler who many pundits thought were first round prospects and Vollmer gives them nice depth at the tackle position. But New England did its most damage in the first round, when they acquired the 26th and 162nd picks from Baltimore in exchange for the 23rd pick, then turned around and absolutely fleeced Green Bay for the 41st, 73rd and 83rd picks in exchange for the two picks they acquired from the Ravens. Belichick and the Patriots have long mastered the art of the draft day trade.

3. New York Giants
Hakeem Nicks, WR (29); Clint Sintim, LB (45); William Beatty, OT (60)
The Giants had a solid first day by filling needs and also drafting some of the best players on the board at their selections. The G-Men had an obvious need at wideout after releasing Plaxico Burress and while Nicks isn’t a burner, he was a productive player at UNC and should make an impact right away. I absolutely love the Sintim pick because I felt as though he should have went in the first round, although I wonder how he fits into the Giants’ plans with Danny Clark and Michael Boley already filling the starting outside linebacker spots. Still, Sintim was a beast at Virginia and the Giants will definitely game plan ways to get him on the field in special situations. Beatty adds depth at tackle and could develop into a starter if he shows more mental toughness.

4. Seattle Seahawks
Aaron Curry, LB (4); Max Unger, C (49)
The Seahawks got tremendous value with the fourth overall pick when the Chiefs passed on Curry at No. 3. They landed arguably the best player in the entire draft and didn’t upset the applecart by selecting quarterback Mark Sanchez. Then with their second pick, they landed a player in Unger that could possibly fill in at guard this season. The only debate will be whether or not they gave up too much to land Unger after trading the 68th and 105th overall picks to Chicago for the 49th. They probably did, but this team should rebound next year and compete in a garbage division, plus they wound up with the best prospect in the draft. Not to mention, they landed a first round pick in next year’s draft after trading their second round (37th overall) pick to Denver.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars
Eugene Monroe, OT (8); Eben Britton, OT (39)
Some might scoff at the fact that the Jags took two offensive tackles, but they were decimated with injuries along their O-line last year and the entire offense fell apart. The team also parted with Khalif Barnes in the offseason, so Monroe (who was considered one of the safest picks in the draft) fills their left tackle need and Britton is slated to play on the right side. It’s not too often that a team lands two starting offensive tackles in the first two rounds and while this wasn’t a flashy draft, it was solid nonetheless.

Honorable Mention Section:

San Francisco 49ers: Michael Crabtree, WR (10)
Crabtree shockingly slipped to San Fran at No. 10, who finally landed a true No. 1 receiver since trading Terrell Owens away years ago. The Niners also traded their second round pick (43rd overall) to Carolina for their first round pick in 2010. That’s an outstanding first day and definitely worth a mention.

Other 2009 NFL Draft Coverage:

NFL Draft: 5 Second Day Steals
NFL Draft: 5 First Round Values
NFL Draft: 5 Questionable Day 1 Decisions
NFL Draft: 5 Day 1 Winners
Official 2009 NFL Draft Post & Rumor Mill

As the NFL draft rolls on over the next two days, I’ll post picks, thoughts and stay on top of any rumors that I hear and post them here. Enjoy.

2:55PM ET: Mike Mayock of the NFL Network claims that his “cell phone is blowing up” with reports that the Jets are trying to trade up to No. 2 for USC quarterback Mark Sanchez.

3:19PM ET: According to the South Florida Sun Sentinel, the Dolphins will select Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler at No. 25.

3:22PM ET: The Rams could trade back into the first round for middle linebacker Rey Maualuga according to NFL Network’s Steve Wyche.

3:38PM ET: I’m shocked the Chiefs passed on Aaron Curry, but all the pre-draft rumors that said Tyson Jackson would be their pick were obviously dead on. Jackson is the best 3-4 end in the draft and obvious was a commodity.

3:40PM ET: The Browns got exactly what they wanted with this trade. They weren’t in love with anyone at No.5 and managed to trade out. Great move – I wonder what kind of ransom the Browns got.

3:42PM ET: Mike Mayock just made a great point about the Jets trading up to No. 5. What team did they want to get ahead of to go all the way up to No. 5?

3:45PM ET: DE Kenyon Coleman, QB Brett Ratliff, S Abram Elam No. 17 and No. 57. A sleeper in this deal is Elam, who is one of the more promising safeties in the draft.

3:52PM ET: The Bengals select OT Andre Smith – another low character guy for their low-character roster. He is a tremendous talent, but he comes with a ton of baggage.

3:53PM ET: Mayock speculates that the Raiders will take a receiver, but not Michael Crabtree. In his last mock, he had them taking Darrius Heyward-Bey out of Maryland, which would be quite a shock. I can’t see Oakland passing on Crabtree at No. 7, but a sleeper could be OT Eugene Monroe.

4:21PM ET: Crabtree goes to the 49ers. Although word is that he turned teams off with his “diva” attitude, it’s amazing that this kid fell so far. He’s one of the best prospects in this draft and the Niners got a steal. He fits a need and he was the best player left on the board – great pick.

4:28PM ET: Bills select Aaron Maybin. This was a bit of a surprise considering the Bills’ need for an offensive tackle and Michael Oher is still on the board. But before they traded Jason Peters to the Eagles, pass rush was a major need and Maybin feels that need. He was one of the best pass-rushers in college football last year and while he could stand to add a little bulk to his frame, he could turn out to be terrific off the edge.

4:32PM ET: Broncos select Knowshon Moreno. This is a bit of a surprise considering Denver is switching to a 3-4 defense and they have needs to fill in the front seven. But Josh McDaniels is an offensive guy first and foremost, and Moreno is a stud. He doesn’t have elite speed, but he arguably has the best vision of any back in the draft and should do well in Denver.

4:39PM ET: Redskins select Brian Orakpo. This is another guy that fell. Orakpo was once considering a top 5 pick and he slid all the way to Washington at No. 13, who had a major need at defensive end after releasing Jason Taylor. Some say Orakpo played down to his competition at times, but anyone that saw his effort against Oklahoma and Texas Tech came away impressed.

4:47PM ET: Saints select Malcolm Jenkins. Jenkins had a brutal showing at the scouting combine, but his body of work at Ohio State was impressive. I’m a little surprised that the Saints didn’t address their linebacker position here, but after cutting Mike McKenzie, they had an obvious need at cornerback and Jenkins is less of a risk than Vontae Davis, who some believe is a risk given his attitude.

4:50PM ET: Texans select Brian Cushing. The Texans continue to upgrade their defense with the selection of Cushing, who was the best outside linebacker prospect in the draft after Aaron Curry. The knock on Cushing is that he might be more of a bodybuilder than a football player, but I’d say that more fits his former USC teammate Clay Matthews.

4:55PM ET: Chargers select Larry English. This is a bit of a surprise and it’s no knock on English. With Rey Maualuga on the board, I’m surprised they went English, but at least he’s a fit for the 3-4. English was one of the best players in the MAC and he was a force as a pass-rusher. The Bolts didn’t have a ton of holes to fill, so maybe English was the top player left on their board and they took him.

4:59PM ET: Browns trade the 17th pick to the Bucs for the 19th and the 191st. What a great day for the Browns in terms of value. They’re probably still going to address a need and they keep acquiring more picks.

5:01PM ET: Bucs select Josh Freeman. I could look like an absolute idiot (nothing new) in a few years, but I think this is an awful pick. If this weren’t a weak QB class, there’s no way Freeman would have been taken in the first round. He has a ton of talent and he’s a good kid, but he’s incredibly raw and I think he’s going to have time reading NFL defenses. Again, hammer me if you think I’m wrong. But the Bucs are jam packed at quarterback and one could argue they don’t have a quality starter among them.

5:11PM ET: Eagles select Jeremy Maclin. The Browns once again traded back, this time with the Eagles, who added a dynamic playmaker in Maclin. I’m a bit surprised that they would trade up. Who were they worried about getting ahead of? The Lions? Doesn’t make much sense.

5:26PM ET: Lions select Brandon Pettigrew. I don’t get it – I really don’t. The Lions have needs at offensive tackle and middle linebacker, both Michael Oher and Rey Maulauga are on the board, and they take a tight end. The only way I can spin this pick is that dome teams tend to struggle defensively (they rarely rank in the top 10 defensively at years end). So Martin Mayhew addresses the offense first and foremost and gives Stafford a nice target in the passing game to go along with Calvin Johnson.

5:41PM ET: Browns select Alex Mack. This was a bit of a surprise because of what the Browns need, but Mack is a great prospect. He’s the best center in the draft and obviously Cleveland felt that they could nab one of the best players available at No. 21 and fill their linebacker need later with one of their many second round picks. This was a surprise (and maybe a reach?) with Everrette Brown still on the board, but the Browns still got a quality prospect.

5:50PM ET: Vikings select Percy Harvin. Speculation had it that the Vikings would take a receiver at this spot, although I’m a little surprised that they took Harvin despite rumors that said they had removed all prospects who had poor character. Regardless, Harvin has loads of potential and could be explosive opposite Bernard Berrian in the Vikings’ offense.

6:06PM ET: Ravens select Michael Oher. No surprise – the Patriots traded down in a draft. Oher is a fantastic value at this spot and fills a need for the Ravens. I’m shocked he lasted this long and I think Baltimore got a steal.

6:10PM ET: Falcons select Peria Jerry. The Falcons definitely addressed a need and Jerry is a tremendous value at this pick, but he’s projected as an under tackle and Atlanta desperately needs a nose. Jerry is essentially the same player as Jonathan Babineaux, who just received a new contract extension for his productive play. Still, maybe Mike Smith wants to use a smaller defensive line and go with more stunts next year. If Trey Lewis returns to full health next season, then Jerry fits in well and could give the Falcons another pass rusher along with John Abraham.

6:27PM ET: Dolphins select Vontae Davis. I love it. Davis’s attitude has been questioned in the past, but obviously Bill Parcells isn’t concerned is too upset about it. Davis has tremendous athleticism and could turn out to be a steal this late in the draft. Then again, he could be nothing more than an athletic marvel that gets abused by NFL receivers because he’s too aggressive. I trust Parcells’ judgment.

6:37PM ET: Packers trade their 2nd round pick and two 3rd rounders to New England in order to select Clay Matthews. This was, bar none, the worst trade of the day so far. The Packers did fill a need at outside linebacker, but the Patriots fleeced them for what could turn out to be a very overrated prospect in Matthews. This trade was mind-boggling and Ted Thompson should feel abused.

6:41PM ET: Quick question – did teams forget that USC linebacker Rey Maualuga is still on the board?

6:42PM ET: Colts select Donald Brown. Sucka what? This pick makes no sense. With Evander Hood and Ron Brace still on the board, I’m shocked the Colts went offense – more specifically, a running back. They have Joseph Addai and also took Michael Hart in the sixth round a year ago. Brown is a solid prospect, but I’m shocked the Colts went running back with their first pick with needs on defense.

6:49PM ET: Bills select Eric Wood. I’m a little surprised that with a need for offensive tackle, the Bills didn’t go with Eben Britton. But some felt as though Wood would get selected ahead of Alex Mack, so obviously the kid has a ton of talent. I’ll be shocked if Buffalo doesn’t take an OT in the second round.

7:06PM ET: Giants select Hakeem Nicks. No real surprise here. Since the G-Men couldn’t acquire Braylon Edwards from the Browns, they had an obvious need for a receiver and Nicks is one of the better route runners in the draft.

7:09PM ET: Titans select Kenny Britt. Just as I wrote for the Giants – no real surprise here. Tennessee was rumored to be interested in trading for Anquan Boldin, so obviously they wanted to address the wideout position, even though they signed Nate Washington this offseason. Britt is a nice big target and although he doesn’t have a ton of speed, he’s a great blocker and isn’t afraid to go over the middle.

7:23PM ET: Cardinals select Chris “Beanie” Wells. It’s surprising that a talented back like this fell this far, but the Cardinals got a steal. He’s similar to Tim Hightower in that he’s a bigger back, but Wells has more speed and Arizona now has a replacement for Edgerrin James, who will get his wish and be released soon.

7:26PM ET: Steelers select Evander Hood. If Hood can be a 3-4 nose, then this was a solid pick. The Steelers didn’t have a ton of needs obviously, so they take one of the best players on the board and add to their already stout defense.

This is it – the week NFL draft nuts have been waiting for. Soon enough, prospects will know what cities they’re headed to and draft mock experts everywhere will look like idiots when less than half of their predictions are correct despite spending hours of time researching the picks.

I say it every year – the NFL draft is a crapshoot in terms of trying to make predictions. Nobody knows how high prospects are rated on draft boards around the league except the teams themselves. So while it’s fun to project who will go where, nobody has a clue – not Mike Mayock, not Mel Kiper and certainly not Anthony Stalter. (Did I just refer to myself in the third person? What a joke.)

The following is my third and final mock of the first round. In my previous two mocks, I had some fun by predicting potential trades that could play out, but I won’t do it here. I’m playing this mock “straight up” because predicting trades in the first round is harder to do than predicting what kind of mood Billy Bob Thornton will be in when he sits down to give an interview. Zing!

Some of you will inevitably feel as though that I have teams reaching with their picks. That’s fine, but realize that reaches are going to happen come Saturday because they’re just a part of the draft. If you disagree with any of my picks, go ahead and let me hear about it in the comments section. After all, the NFL draft is a spectacle and it’s supposed to be fun for fans. Enjoy all the action on Saturday and good luck to your favorite team on draft weekend.

(Click here to see Mock Draft Version 1.0 and Mock Draft Version 2.0)

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Word is that the Lions aren’t completely sold on Stafford, which is why they have started contract negotiations with not only his agent, but also the representatives of Jason Smith and Aaron Curry. Considering how many holes the Lions have, it’s ludicrous for them to take a QB that they’re not 100% convinced can be their leader under center for years to come. But when has Detroit ever done anything that made sense? Matt Millen is nowhere near Allen Park these days, yet the general feeling is that the Lions are still going to screw up this pick. For the record, I think Curry should be their pick. He’s the best player in the draft, he fills a major need, would be cheaper to sign than either Stafford or Smith and linebacker is usually a safer pick in the first round. But what I think Detroit should do, and what I think they will do are two different things, which is why Stafford’s name is penciled in above.

2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
If the Lions select Smith at No. 1, then the Rams could go one of four ways. They could take the next best offensive tackle in Eugene Monroe, they could get their quarterback of the future in Matthew Stafford, they could fill their need for a No. 1 receiver and take Michael Crabtree, or they could go with the best defensive player in the draft and select Aaron Curry. Curry seems like the most likely choice, but again, any one of the prospects mentioned are viable options. If the Lions do pass on Smith, then he seems like a slam-dunk for the Rams, who are rumored to prefer him to Monroe. With Orlando Pace now in Chicago, St. Louis needs to address the gaping hole at left tackle and the athletic Smith would seemingly be a great fit.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
There’s a chance Curry might not fall to this spot and there’s an even bigger chance that the Chiefs will go with an offensive tackle to help protect new quarterback Matt Cassel. But chances are Curry will be available here and considering KC is making a switch to a new 3-4 defensive alignment, he would be a great fit. New GM Scott Pioli traded for Mike Vrabel and signed veteran free agent Zach Thomas this offseason, so obviously he’s making the linebacker position a priority. Pair Curry opposite Derrick Johnson and the Chiefs will have a nice set of young, athletic linebackers.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
There is a ton of speculation that the Seahawks will select USC quarterback Mark Sanchez here, which certainly would make sense. Matt Hasselbeck is 33 years old, is coming off an injury-plagued season and Seattle isn’t currently developing a young backup behind him (which is where Sanchez would come in). But with general manager Tim Ruskell recently saying that Hasselbeck is “as good as ever,” it’s hard to believe that Sanchez would be their pick here. Granted, Sanchez could still be viewed as a potential successor even if Hasselbeck is “as good as ever,” but it still seems far-fetched for Seattle to go that route with this pick. The bottom line is that even though the Hawks are coming off a disastrous year, they can easily rebound in a weak NFC West and they seem to still be in “win now” mode. Seattle wants right tackle Sean Locklear to eventually be Walter Jones’ successor on the left side, so Monroe could play guard until one of the tackle spots open up.

5. Cleveland Browns: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Earlier this week I went into detail about why I believe Sanchez will be the Browns’ pick at No. 5, which you can read here. But the long and short of it is that I fully believe that Cleveland will trade either quarterback Brady Quinn or wide receiver Braylon Edwards by the end of draft weekend, and therefore decided between either Sanchez or wideout Michael Crabtree at No. 5. And actually, I think the Browns will trade both Quinn and Edwards by the end of draft weekend, select Sanchez at No. 5 and then fill their wide receiver need later in the draft. If I’m wrong about all of these trade scenarios, then top defenders Aaron Curry, Brian Orakpo, B.J. Raji and Everrette Brown are all possibilities at this spot as well.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
The Bengals would love to replace former first round bust Levi Jones at left tackle, but what prospect will they go with? Some believe Oher would be a reach here and that Alabama’s Andre Smith would be a better fit for Cincy’s desire to fill its roster with questionable characters. But something tells me Mike Brown will go with the safer choice in Oher, whose draft stock has risen of late. He has great size, athleticism and comes with less baggage than Smith, who has tremendous talent, but has also had his weight, work ethic and motivation questioned in the past. Either way, unless they surprise and address another need such as running back, the Bengals will probably go with an offensive tackle at this spot.

7. Oakland Raiders: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Even though the Raiders have needs on the offensive and defensive lines, Crabtree might be too good to pass up here. There are concerns about his health after he had foot surgery following the college season, but there’s no doubt Crabtree is a gamer and he fills Oakland’s need to give quarterback JaMarcus Russell a true go-to receiver. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders select one of the top offensive tackles here or a defensive end like Brian Orakpo. But again if Crabtree falls, I highly doubt Al Davis will pass.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Considering Dennis Northcutt and Troy Williamson are the projected starters at receiver next season, there’s no doubt that the Jags need to address their gaping hole at wideout. But will it be with this pick? Maybe, especially if Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin are available, but don’t forget that head coach Jack Del Rio is a defensive-minded guy and that Jacksonville has always been known for its defense. The Jags traded Marcus Stroud to Buffalo last offseason because they felt Rob Meier could be as productive as a starter as he was in a three-man rotation in previous years. But he wasn’t, and Jacksonville’s defense struggled generating pressure from the interior. If Raji falls, he would be an excellent addition to the defensive line and he would surely benefit from playing alongside big John Henderson. Again, receiver is the top need for this team and nobody would be surprised if Jacksonville filled that hole with this pick. But Raji might be too good to pass up at this spot.

9. Green Bay Packers: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
The Packers have been quiet so far in free agency, which is surprising considering they’re switching to a 3-4 defensive scheme next year and don’t have 3-4 personnel currently on the roster. If B.J. Raji falls, I could definitely see Green Bay selecting him to use in a rotation at all three defensive line spots next season and eventually replacing Ryan Pickett (who is a free agent after the 2009 season) at nose tackle. But with the Jaguars stealing Raji a pick earlier, Jackson isn’t a bad fallback. Jackson isn’t much of a pass rusher, but he’s solid against the run and he’s big enough to play end in a 3-4, which is a major need for the Packers. Another option for GB here would be to go with either Brian Orakpo or Everette Brown and plug them into the outside linebacker position opposite Aaron Kampman. But the Pack are awfully thin along the defensive line and Jackson would be a solid, albeit unspectacular, addition.

10. San Francisco 49ers: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas
The 49ers have a nice group of young linebackers, which includes Patrick Willis and Manny Lawson. But the team is hurting for pass rushers and could use an outside linebacker that can provide a solid rush off the edge and get pressure on the quarterback. The knock on Orakpo is that he can play down to his competition, but there’s no doubt he wreaked havoc in the opponents’ backfields last season, most notably against Big 12 rivals Texas Tech and Oklahoma. He’s athletic enough to play outside linebacker in a 3-4 and under the guidance of Mike Singletary, he could turn out to be a productive player at the next level.

11. Buffalo Bills: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
The Bills need a pass rusher, which is why prospects like Everrette Brown and Aaron Maybin are major possibilities at this pick, but the Jason Peters trade changed everything. Now the top need is offensive tackle and although Smith comes with major baggage, there’s no denying that he has tremendous talent. The team took a chance by signing a dynamic personality in Terrell Owens this offseason, so they might be to a point now where talent supersedes all else. If Michael Oher falls, the Bills could look at him (regardless of whether or not Smith is still on the board) as well, but the overall feeling is that Buffalo will go with either an offensive tackle or a pass rusher at this spot.

12. Denver Broncos: Everrette Brown, OLB/DE, Florida State
Denver would love it if defensive tackle B.J. Raji fell to this spot so that they could plug him in at nose tackle in their new 3-4 defensive alignment, but it’s doubtful that he slips out of the top 10. The Broncos need a defender that can provide a decent rush off the edge and generate pressure on the quarterback. Brown was a force at Florida State and while there are some concerns about his lack of size, he should be able to transform into an outside linebacker in Denver’s 3-4 scheme, or play with his hand in the dirt as an end when the team goes with a 4-3 front. Brown’s stock has fallen has the draft nears, so the Broncos might look at Aaron Maybin from Penn State here, too.

13. Washington Redskins: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
If either Andre Smith or Michael Oher falls to this spot, I could see the Skins selecting one of them. But with both off the board in this mock, it’s hard to see them reaching for Eben Britton, who would be the next highest offensive tackle in this draft. This is one of the more difficult teams to figure out because if Daniel Snyder is in love with a prospect like Mark Sanchez or Aaron Curry, I could see him trading up. I could also see the Skins trading down and then selecting Britton or one of the top defensive ends later on. But if we’re playing this mock straight up, then I say Washington bypasses smaller defensive end prospects like Aaron Maybin and Larry English, and goes with the big-bodied Ayers, who has good size, is a reliable tackler and plays with a chip on his shoulder. The only thing is, he would be a reach here and if LSU’s Tyson Jackson falls, I could see the Skins preferring him to Ayers. Keep an eye on USC linebacker Rey Maualuga at this pick, too.

14. New Orleans Saints: Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
Some pundits think that the Saints will take a running back like Beanie Wells at this spot following the release of veteran Deuce McAllister this offseason. But with only one pick in the first three rounds, if the Saints stay here (as in, they don’t trade down in order to acquire more picks) then they’ll go defense. (Plus, they also have a highly productive Pierre Thomas waiting for a more extended role in the offense.) New Orleans’ most pressing defensive need is at outside linebacker, where Scott Fujita and Scott Shanle are quality starters, but neither of them makes a huge impact and both will turn 30 this year. Some feel as though Cushing is nothing more than a bodybuilder who posses as a football player, but that description better fits his former USC teammate Clay Matthews. Outside of having some durability concerns, Cushing is a solid tackler, flashes good athleticism and has decent range. He would be a solid pick for the Saints at this spot.

15. Houston Texans: Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State
Houston has bigger needs than running back, most notably at cornerback, defensive tackle and outside linebacker. But Wells might be too good to pass up at this spot and pair with speed back Steve Slaton. Wells has the best combination of size and speed of any back in the draft and could be one of the better picks of this year’s draft. Of course, many pundits thought that the Texans would draft a running back last year and they traded down and took offensive tackle Duane Brown.

16. San Diego Chargers: Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
The Chargers are one of the toughest teams to predict in the first round. Their biggest needs are arguably at defensive end now that Igor Olshansky signed with Dallas, a right tackle to uproot Jeromey Clary, and a future running back to supplant LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. But if they’re taking the best player available at this spot, then it’s Maualuga, who could turn out to be a tremendous two-down linebacker at the next level. If LSU’s Tyson Jackson or Tennessee’s Robert Ayers fall (which are decent possibilities), then the Bolts could go with one of them, or a surprise like Missouri DT Evander Hood. Trading down is also a major possibility, too.

17. New York Jets: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
New head coach Rex Ryan has done a nice job upgrading the defense this offseason with the additions of linebacker Bart Scott and cornerback Lito Sheppard. While the Jets could still stand to upgrade the defensive end position, wide receiver remains their most pressing need and Heyward-Bey would give them a player who has great size, speed and that can stretch the field in the vertical passing game.

18. Denver Broncos (from Chicago): Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
Reach! Reach! REAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACH! I know – this is a massive reach. I don’t really believe the Broncos would stay at this spot if they value Brace, which they might given their need for a 3-4 nose tackle. But since I’m not predicting any trades, I’ll pencil Brace into this spot but assume Denver is going to get him later in the draft after trading back. REEAAAAACCH!

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
The Bucs are moving away from the “Tampa 2” scheme under new head coach Raheem Morris and they need another pass-rushing threat opposite Gaines Adams on the defensive line. If Maybin falls to this spot, he would give Tampa a nice edge rusher and could provide pressure on the quarterback. He would also inject some youth at the position, with Kevin Carter set to turn 36 this year. Adding an interior lineman such as Peria Jerry, Evander Hood or Ron Brace is an option as well.

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas): Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Davis might not fall this far and the Lions could certainly look to address their need at offensive tackle with a player like Eben Britton. But Davis is the top cornerback prospect in the draft and he would fill an immediate need for Detroit. Some have questioned Davis’s character because he reportedly got into spats with the coaching staff at Illinois, but he’s an athletic marvel and could turn out to be a great pick if he stays motivated and keeps his head on straight.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
After trading for left tackle Jason Peters, the Eagles could go a variety of ways with this pick. Tight end remains a need and that means Oklahoma State’s Brandon Pettigrew is an option. Outside linebacker is also an area of concern with Omar Gaither losing his starting job to second-year undrafted player Akeem Jordan at the end of last year. But ultimately, Brian Westbrook turns 30 this year, is always an injury risk and Correll Buckhalter signed with Denver. The Eagles could trade out of his spot and still land a productive running back later on, but Moreno is one of the more underrated prospects in this entire draft. He doesn’t posses elite speed, but his vision is outstanding and some at Georgia have compared him to Hershel Walker.

22. Minnesota Vikings: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
Some might look at this pick and scoff considering the Vikings have two of the best defensive tackles in the league in Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. But they’re not necessarily deep at the position and Pat Williams is 36 and coming off injury. Jerry would also give them a nice interior pass-rusher and would certainly be a solid addition if Pat and Kevin are suspended for the start of the season for violating the league substance abuse policy last year. I could also see the Vikes selecting a possession receiver like Hakeem Nicks and a center like Alex Mack to fill the void left by Matt Birk.

23. New England Patriots: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Several media outlets (including Don Banks of SI.com) say that Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler is a lock to go to New England at this pick. Which is exactly why I’m going with Jenkins. Every time a player is a “lock” to go to a team past the top 10, it’s usually wrong and I don’t trust anything coming out of New England around this time because Bill Belichick is the last person to let any draft information leak. Jenkins is a perfect fit for Belichick’s scheme because he’s smart, intuitive and has a great head on his shoulders. He would be a solid pick here.

24. Atlanta Falcons: Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan
I’ve gone round and round with this pick for weeks. The Falcons have several needs including tight end, outside linebacker, defensive tackle, defensive end and safety. Everyone and their mother assumes that the Falcons are going to take Brandon Pettigrew if he’s available, but considering the tight end position is an afterthought in Mike Murlarkey’s offense, I bet they wait until later in the draft to fill that need. The top need is at defensive tackle, which makes Peria Jerry (if he’s available) and Evander Hood possibilities, although Hood is a better fit than Jerry because Jerry doesn’t play nose and that’s the position Atlanta needs to address. But at the end of the day, the safety class is weak this year and if Atlanta waits, it might not be able to address that need later in the draft. So they take Delmas here and wait to grab a DT, OLB and TE later in the draft. But I could see the Falcons going with any one of these prospects at No. 24: Pettigrew, Delmas, Hood, Clint Sintim and Clay Matthews.

25. Miami Dolphins: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
Miami doesn’t have much in terms of starting-quality cornerbacks outside of Will Allen. Smith is a very good athlete who doesn’t mind coming up to play the run and is fundamentally sound. He’s not the biggest prospect, but he seems like a Bill Parcells-type of athlete and has loads of experience.

26. Baltimore Ravens: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
The Ravens have needs at safety, cornerback and defensive end, but their interest in Anquan Boldin suggests that they might go wide receiver with this pick. Derek Mason is consistent, but he’s getting up there in age and Mark Clayton has not proved that he can make much of an impact. There might not be any way Maclin falls this far (he’s slated to go in the top 15), but if he does, he would be the ultimate steal at this spot.

27. Indianapolis Colts: Evander Hood, DT, Missouri
In my first two mocks, I said that Peria Jerry would be a slam-dunk at this pick, but I have him going No. 22 to the Vikings now, so Hood falls to Indy. The Colts have a major need at defensive tackle with Darrell Reid now in Denver and Hood (6’2”, 300 pounds) would give their defensive line much-needed bulk considering Keyunta Dawson and Eric Foster each weigh well under 275 pounds.

28. Buffalo Bills (from Carolina through Philadelphia): Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
There is a huge possibility that Pettigrew won’t fall this far, but if he does, he would seem like a lock to land in Buffalo. Some mock projections even have him going to the Bills at No. 11, although that seems like a bigger stretch than him falling to No. 28. Either way, Pettigrew would form a nice 1-2 combination with T.O. in the Bills’ offense.

29. New York Giants: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
What the hell do I do with this pick? If the G-Men don’t trade for Braylon Edwards, then a receiver is obviously needed, which is why I have Nicks penciled in at this spot. But if they do acquire Edwards, then tight end and safety become the two biggest needs and if Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas are both off the board, then it looks like the Giants will be reaching no matter what they do. Britt might not be available and if he isn’t, Hakeen Nicks is also a possibility.

30. Tennessee Titans: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
The Titans could use a corner to play opposite Cortland Finnegan once Nick Harper decides to call it quits. Butler has excellent quickness and athleticism, although he comes with some durability issues. Still, the former Husky is a smart, confident player and someone that Tennessee could bring along slowly to eventually replace Harper.

31. Arizona Cardinals: Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois
Is English a great fit for the Cardinals? Maybe not, but they do have needs at both defensive end and outside linebacker and English is the best hybrid prospect left on the board. Arizona needs another pass rusher, which is what English excelled at in college. Some have compared him to a poor man’s Terrell Suggs, which certainly bodes well for English’s potential.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
Considering he’s the best guard prospect in the draft, Robinson might not last to the 32nd pick in the first round. But if he does, the Steelers would instantly upgrade their guard position with the 6’5”, 329-pound former Sooner. Robinson has outstanding strength and is very powerful.

I’m saying the over/under on correct picks for this mock is 7 and I’m taking the under. Anyone taking the over so I can feel good about myself?

There is no such thing as a “can’t-miss” prospect in the first round of an NFL draft. They just don’t exist. For as much as teams scout and prepare, it’s inevitable that some prospects just aren’t going to pan out, which means they hop the train to Bustville right out of the gates.

Before you check to make sure that you’ve taken the correct dosage of your medication today, I realize that the first line of this article directly contradicts the title. That’s because even though there is no such thing as “can’t-miss” prospect in the first round, this is the time of year to have a little fun by making some predictions.

Two weeks ago, I complied a ranking of the top 5 potential first round busts in this month’s draft. So I thought it was only appropriate that I construct another top 5 ranking, this time of players I deem to be “can’t-miss” prospects. These are first round prospects that I think are low-risk, high-reward players.

Fair warning, don’t flip out when you read names of prospects that are expected to go in the top 10. This isn’t a piece dedicated to first round steals – it’s one that centers around prospects that should have the least amount of risk involved and the highest success rate.

Just as I mentioned in my top 5 first round busts piece, I realize that one or two of these prospects might slip to the second round (see Alex Mack). But on average, most pundits would agree that all five of the players are first round talents.

1. Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
Some believe Curry is the best prospect in the entire draft and I’m one of them. What’s impressive about the Wake Forest product is that he projects as either a middle or outside linebacker in any defensive scheme. Some linebackers and defensive ends don’t have a true position in the NFL because of lack of size, but Curry is projected to have multiple positions at the next level. He’s also a three-down player who not only can be a force against the run, but he’s so athletic that he can stay on the field in passing situations and cover backs and tight ends in coverage. Curry is the ultimate package and has limited weaknesses, which is why some Lions fans are holding out hope that Detroit will make him the No. 1 pick.

2. Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
Baylor’s Jason Smith is rated as the best offensive tackle in this month’s draft – and for good reason. He has great size, athleticism and is projected to be the best pass blocker of any offensive lineman in the draft. But while Smith might have a higher ceiling in terms of potential, Monroe is arguably the safest prospect in the entire draft. He doesn’t excel at any one facet of the game, yet is fundamentally sound in both run blocking and pass protection, and is also more athletic than what people give him credit for. Monroe is the prototypical NFL offensive tackle in terms of size (he’s 6’5”, 309 pounds) and has tons of experience (he was a three-year starter and could have played as a true freshman if it wasn’t for D’Brickashaw Ferguson). He also has outstanding footwork, which is often the most important thing when pro scouts are looking at offensive line prospects. Whichever team lands Monroe will probably be able to plug him in at left tackle and forget about having to draft the position again for the next 10 to 12 years.

3. Alex Mack, C, California
Some people are going to take one look at Mack’s position and wonder what I smoked right before sitting down to write this piece. A center for a first round pick? Believe it. The last center to be selected in the first round was Nick Mangold by the Jets in 2006. While he struggled a bit during his sophomore season, he’s been a quality player in the middle of the Jets’ offensive line and will likely continue to be for years to come. Centers are often the most overlooked position on the field and yet they’re responsible for getting their linemates set, calling out audibles and making pre-snap adjustments so their quarterbacks don’t get killed. They’re often the most intelligent players on the field and prospects like Mack are changing the way teams view centers in the draft. Mack doesn’t come without his flaws (he can be overly aggressive at times), but he’s extremely intelligent, has great technique and he’s an incredibly hard worker. He also comes loaded with experience, is strong and doesn’t have any durability issues. Mack won’t be selected in the top 20 and could fall into the early second round, but he’s the best center prospect to come out in several years and chances are he’s going to be very successful at the next level.

4. B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Some will argue that since Raji comes with off field baggage (i.e. he was ejected from a game in 2006 for throwing a punch, he missed the entire 2007 college season because of an academic issue and he also tested positive for marijuana before the 2008 season) that he could be one of the bigger first round risks this year. But back in 1995 there was a defensive tackle out of Miami named Warren Sapp that had some off field issues (including a reported failed drug test leading up the draft) too, yet he turned the doubts and criticisms into motivation and wound up being a seven-time Pro Bowler. Raji has a ton of talent and if he’s motivated, he could become one of the more dominant interior defensive linemen in the NFL some day. He’s big enough and quick enough to play either tackle position in a 4-3, and has enough size to play nose in a 3-4. He has outstanding strength, can occupy multiple defenders and flashes good instincts and quickness at the point of attack. If he winds up in a solid organization (i.e. Green Bay), he could turn out to be one of the best first round picks in this draft. He just needs to stay focused and motivated.

5. Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
Maualuga isn’t a three-down player. He won’t be very good in coverage if he’s left in obvious passing situations and he’s not Aaron Curry in that he can play multiple ‘backer positions in either a 4-3 or 3-4. Maualuga is a true thumper in every sense of the word and if he winds up playing inside linebacker in a 3-4 or middle linebacker in a 4-3, he’s going to be a force. He has the size and strength to shed blockers and despite not having ideal speed, he’s a solid pass rusher and decent blitzer. The bottom line is that Maualuga has to fit into the right defensive scheme to be completely successful, but if he does, he could become one of the better young ‘backers in the NFL in a short amount of time.

Be sure to return to The Scores Report the week of the draft as John Paulsen and I break down what positions are the safest bets in the first round.

In my first attempt to project the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft, I predicted the Lions to take Georgia’s Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick, Alabama’s offensive tackle Andre Smith to fall out of the top 15 and I also drummed up a potential swap between the Browns and 49ers so that San Fran could land USC signal caller Mark Sanchez.

But to paraphrase that overactor Nicholas Cage in “The Rock”: Gee, kind of a lot has happened since then. Most notably the Bears sending two first round picks to the Broncos for quarterback Jay Cutler and the Giants’ release of receiver Plaxico Burress.

Here’s my second attempt at projecting the first round of this month’s draft. As always, feel free to criticize in the comments section, but remember that I’m a human – I have feelings, too, damn it. So be gentle.

(Click here to see Mock Draft Version 1.0)

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Mock 1.0 Projection: Stafford
Nothing in the past couple of weeks has changed my mind about Stafford eventually winding up in Detroit. GM Martin Mayhew reportedly wants to trade this selection because of the financial burden that is bestowed upon having the top overall pick, but other teams don’t want it for the same reason. In the end, Jason Smith (Baylor) and Eugene Monroe (Virginia) are both very good options here, but the Lions were reportedly very impressed with Stafford’s private workout and you know what? They simply need a quarterback.

2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
Mock 1.0 Projection: Smith
Smith could go to the Lions at No. 1 and if he does, I firmly believe St. Louis would then select Virginia offensive tackle Eugene Monroe, who apparently turned in a solid private workout for the Rams in mid March. After Orlando Pace was released (and subsequently signed with the Bears), the need for a left tackle became paramount for the Rams. Considering the entire offense revolves around opening holes for running back Steven Jackson and trying to keep quarterback Marc Bulger on his feet, St. Louis taking an offensive tackle seems like a lock.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
Mock 1.0 Projection: Curry
The Chiefs could really use a right tackle to pair with last year’s first round pick, Branden Albert, but Curry would be too good to pass up here. GM Scott Pioli put a premium on versatile defenders while he was in New England, and that’s exactly what Curry is. The Wake Forest product could play either outside or inside in any defensive scheme and is easily the best defensive prospect in this year’s draft.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
Mock 1.0 Projection: Monroe
The Seahawks would love to see Curry fall to No. 4, but it’s doubtful that he would slip past the Chiefs at No. 3 unless KC values Monroe more. Walter Jones is still extremely effective for his age, but the Hawks need to start grooming someone to take his place. Seattle also has interest in USC quarterback Mark Sanchez, or is at least feigning interest. If teams like the 49ers or Broncos also have interest in Sanchez, them maybe the Seahawks can trade down and acquire another pick or two.

5. Cleveland Browns: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Mock 1.0 Projection: Traded to San Francisco, 49ers select QB Mark Sanchez
In my first mock, I had the Browns trading this pick to the 49ers, but I’m not feeling as ballsy as I was that day. Personally I think Cleveland is screwed. They really need linebackers, but none of the top ‘backers after Wake’s Aaron Curry – Brian Orakpo, Everette Brown, Brian Cushing, Rey Maualuga – are worthy of the fifth overall pick. Plus, with their signing of free agent inside linebacker Eric Barton (who played for Eric Mangini in New York), Cleveland would probably pass on Maualuga (who some Browns fans are clamoring for) anyway. So unless they can trade down and get more value, they’ll either have to reach at this pick or take a surprise like Crabtree. The Giants released receiver Plaxico Burress last week and there has been speculation for months that New York is interested in Braylon Edwards. If the Browns send Edwards to New York and acquire an OLB like Mathias Kiwanuka in return, then Crabtree makes a ton of sense here.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
Mock 1.0 Projection: Oher
Oher is a reach here, there’s no doubt about it. But I think the Bengals are finally starting to learn their lesson in regards to drafting potentially bad apples, so they’ll stay away from Alabama’s Andre Smith. Oher is projected to go 15-20, but so what? He’s the third best offensive tackle on the board after Jason Smith (Baylor) and Eugene Monroe (Virginia) and his stock has steadily climbed since the scouting combine. If he becomes a Pro Bowler in three years, will anyone criticize the Bengals for taking him at No. 6 instead of No. 15? No. Obviously if they can trade down and still nab him 15-20, then all the better. But trading out of the top 10 is harder than fans realize.

7. Oakland Raiders: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Mock 1.0 Projection: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
If Crabtree were still available, I think there’s little doubt that Al Davis will go with the Texas Tech product. But with Crabtree coming off the board to Cleveland at No. 5, Davis could try to fill another need by taking DT B.J. Raji (Boston College) or one of the offensive tackles like Michael Oher (Ole Miss) or Andre Smith (Alabama). But in the end, this is Al Davis we’re talking about and I think he’ll go with speed. The Raiders have an obvious need at receiver and Maclin is one of the most explosive playmakers in the entire draft. Is he a good fit for Oakland’s offense? Who cares – he has speed!

8. Denver Broncos (via trade with Jacksonville): Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Mock 1.0 Projection: Jacksonville selected Jeremy Maclin
After the Broncos traded Jay Cutler to Chicago, I’m going to bite on the rumors and predict Denver trades up to this spot to take Sanchez. The Jaguars have an obvious need at receiver, but with Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin off the board, they could trade down and try and get more value. Rumor has it that the Jags are interested in Sanchez, but maybe that is just a smokescreen and now that Denver has an obvious need at quarterback, Jacksonville can sell this pick to the highest bidder.

9. Green Bay Packers: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Mock 1.0 Projection: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
After making the decision to switch to the 3-4 and then subsequently sitting on their hands in free agency, the Packers have a ton of holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball. They need an outside linebacker to play opposite Aaron Kampman and a defensive end to play opposite Cullen Jenkins. But prospects like Brian Orakpo (Texas) and Everette Brown (Florida State) would have to make the switch from 4-3 ends in college to 3-4 outside linebackers in the NFL. So why doesn’t Green Bay just take one of the best players available in Raji, who can play tackle in either a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme and not have to worry about Orakpo or Brown having to make an adjustment? The Packers are counting on Ryan Pickett to play nose in their 3-4 scheme, but he becomes a free agent after the 2009 season and is already 30. GB can take Raji here (assuming GM Ted Thompson wasn’t turned off by a report that claims Raji failed a drug test at the scouting combine), and then try to address their need at linebacker and end later in the draft.

10. San Francisco 49ers: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
Mock 1.0 Projection: Traded to Cleveland, Browns select OLB/DE Everette Brown
I originally had the 49ers swapping picks with Cleveland in order to select Mark Sanchez, but that seemed like a reach then and it seems like a reach now. Andre Smith’s issues have been well documented and I think there’s a chance he could fall past the top 15. But with Michael Oher and Mark Sanchez off the board and given the Niners’ desperate need at offensive tackle, I could see San Fran taking a shot on Smith. And quite frankly, I hope the kid does wind up getting tutelage from a head coach like Mike Singletary because he has too much talent to waste.

11. Buffalo Bills: Brian Orakpo, DE Texas
Mock 1.0 Projection: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
The Bills desperately need a guard, but there aren’t any available worthy of the No. 11 pick. Instead, Buffalo addresses their pass rush need with Orakpo, who might not last this long. Other end possibilities are Aaron Maybin of Penn State and Everette Brown of Florida State. Orakpo has some durability concerns and he can be inconsistent at times, but he was one of the best pass rushers in the nation in college and has incredible athleticism.

12. Jacksonville Jaguars (via trade with Denver): Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
Mock 1.0 Projection: Denver selected B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
The Jags could stand to upgrade their defensive tackle and cornerback positions, but unfortunately there aren’t any worth taking here. So they try to address the black hole that is their wideout position with Harvin, and pray he doesn’t become the next in a long line of busts at receiver. Harvin has incredible speed and could offer the Jags plenty of options in their offense.

13. Washington Redskins: Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
Mock 1.0 Projection: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
The Skins might address their need at offensive tackle if Alabama’s Andre Smith and Ole Miss’s Michael Oher are still on the board. But taking a defensive end makes more sense at this point, especially after the team released Jason Taylor. Brown lacks the ideal size and strength to play end at the next level (which is why some envision him as a 3-4 outside linebacker), but he’s incredibly quick and is one of the top pass rushers in this year’s draft.

14. New Orleans Saints: Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
Mock 1.0 Projection: Cushing
Some believe the Saints will look at a running back, most notably Ohio State’s Chris “Beanie” Wells. But this team only has one pick in the first three rounds so they surely won’t use it on offense. After signing safety Darren Sharper in free agency, outside linebacker becomes New Orleans’ biggest need and Cushing certainly helps fill that void. One of four Trojan linebackers that could be taken on day one, Cushing is a big-time workhorse and a football player in every sense of the word.

15. Houston Texans: Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State
Mock 1.0 Projection: Wells
The Texans could use a hard-hitting strong safety, but prospects like Western Michigan’s Louis Delmas and Missouri’s William Moore would be reaches at No. 15. Houston could also upgrade the outside linebacker spot, but with Brian Cushing coming off the board a pick earlier, Beanie Wells looks awfully intriguing. Steve Slaton proved that he can get it done at the next level, but he needs a complement and Wells, who can run between the tackles and outside, could help in that department.

16. San Diego Chargers: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
Mock 1.0 Projection: Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
The Chargers simply don’t have a ton of holes to fill, but seem destined to take a running back at some point during the draft given the long-term uncertainty surrounding LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. If Beanie Wells is still available, he’s an option here, or the Chargers could wait and try and nab Connecticut’s Donald Brown in the second round. But people seem to be forgetting how good Moreno is and how good he can be. He’s not the fastest back in the draft, but he has outstanding vision and could turn out to be one of the true first round sleepers of this draft.

17. New York Jets: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Mock 1.0 Projection: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
In my first mock, I had the Jets taking Davis but as a reader reminded me, I forgot that they had already acquired Lito Sheppard from the Eagles early this offseason and therefore corner isn’t a pressing need. Receiver certainly is, however, after the team released Laveranues Coles (who signed with the Bengals). Heyward-Bey is one of the fastest prospects in the entire draft and could pair nicely with Jerricho Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey.

18. Denver Broncos (via trade with Chicago): Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
Mock 1.0 Projection: Chicago selected Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
The Broncos have a need at cornerback, so Illinois’ Vontae Davis and Ohio State’s Malcolm Jenkins make sense here. But with their switch to 3-4, the Broncos desperately need linebackers and if Maualuga is still around at No. 18, he would be a tremendous pickup. The Broncos have been getting by with smaller, fast linebackers for years but Maualuga would be a perfect fit for a team that wants to get nastier against the run.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
Mock 1.0 Projection: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
I had Tampa taking Freeman at this spot in my first mock, but the more I play with the idea in my mind, the less I see it happening. The Bucs could really use an upgrade at the defensive end spot opposite Gaines Adams with Kevin Carter set to turn 36 and Greg “Stylez G.” White’s production dipping last year. Maybin might not last this long (in my original mock I had Buffalo taking him at No. 11), but if he does, he would provide Tampa with a nice upgrade and give the team a pair of bookends that really can get after the passer.

20. Detroit Lions: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Mock 1.0 Projection: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
The Lions have always had a huge need at cornerback and after they allowed Leigh Bodden to walk in free agency, the position is once again a major concern. Davis has the athletic talent to be a top 10 pick, but his work ethic and motivation have often been questioned, which could allow him to drop. The Lions have a major need at offensive tackle, but they could grab Davis here and then address their line needs with the first pick in the second round.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
Mock 1.0 Projection: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
After allowing L.J. Smith to bolt via free agency, the Eagles could use an upgrade at tight end if they don’t feel that Brent Celek is ready to be a full-time starter. Pettigrew is the best tight end prospect in the draft and not only is he a solid pass-catcher, but he’s a decent blocker as well.

22. Minnesota Vikings: Alex Mack, C, California
Mock 1.0 Projection: Mack
Center isn’t the sexiest pick in the first round (in fact, it’s about the least sexiest outside of kicker and punter), but the departure of Matt Birk left a gaping hole in the middle of the Vikings’ offensive line. Mack is extremely smart (not unlike Birk) and is physical and aggressive at the point of attack.

23. New England Patriots: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Mock 1.0 Projection: Clint Sintim, OLB, Virginia
The Pats value their linebackers, but they can’t ignore their defensive back concerns. Youngsters Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite struggled last year as rookies and Jenkins seems like the perfect fit for Bill Belichick’s defensive scheme. Jenkins isn’t as athletic as fellow corner prospect Vontae Davis, but he’s instinctive, smart and could really excel under Belichick’s guidance.

24. Atlanta Falcons: Clint Sintim, OLB, Virginia
Mock 1.0 Projection: Clay Matthews, OLB, USC
Some believe the Falcons will select Ole Miss’ Peria Jerry here because of their need at defensive tackle. Atlanta does have a need at DT, but the problem is that Jerry doesn’t fit their scheme. The team already has a quality under tackle in Jonathan Babineaux and Jerry is too close in size and build to him. Jerry can’t play nose, which is the position the Falcons need. Atlanta believes youngster Stephen Nicholas can beat out Coy Wire or Mike Peterson at one of the outside linebacker positions. And if the team could add a quality prospect like Sintim, he could groom at the other outside ‘backer position under Wire or Peterson.

25. Miami Dolphins: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
Mock 1.0 Projection: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Miami doesn’t have much in terms of starting-quality cornerbacks outside of Will Allen. Smith is a very good athlete who doesn’t mind coming up to play the run and is fundamentally sound. He’s not the biggest prospect, but he seems like a Bill Parcells-type of athlete and has loads of experience.

26. Baltimore Ravens: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
Mock 1.0 Projection: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
Britt might be a reach here, but the Ravens need some playmakers on the offensive side of the ball and the Rutgers’ product is one of the more polished receivers in the draft. Britt was incredibly productive at Rutgers and always seemed to produce in the clutch. Baltimore needs to do something at the position with Derrick Mason already turning 35.

27. Indianapolis Colts: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
Mock 1.0 Projection: Jerry
This just seems like a slam dunk pick. The Colts need a run-stuffing defensive tackle and while Jerry doesn’t have a ton of size or bulk, he fits Indy’s style of defense because he’s quick and explosive.

28. Philadelphia Eagles: Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan
Mock 1.0 Projection: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
Since I have the Eagles taking Pettigrew with their first pick this round, they could fill their need at safety with Delmas. Western Michigan’s secondary was abused plenty this year, but Delmas was the one true standout (in a positive way, that is). He doesn’t have a ton of speed, but he’s incredibly tough and physical, was a four-year started in college and is a true team leader. He probably won’t make Philly fans forget about Brian Dawkins anytime soon, but Delmas could turn out to be a very productive player.

29. New York Giants: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
Mock 1.0 Projection: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
What the hell do I do with this pick? If the G-Men don’t trade for Braylon Edwards, then a receiver is obviously needed, which is why I have Nicks penciled in at this spot. But if they do acquire Edwards, then tight end and safety become the two biggest needs and if Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas are both off the board, then it looks like the Giants will be reaching no matter what they do. Nicks is a reach, but he addresses a need.

30. Tennessee Titans: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
Mock 1.0 Projection: Butler
The Titans could use a corner to play opposite Cortland Finnegan once Nick Harper decides to call it quits. Butler has excellent quickness and athleticism, although he comes with some durability issues. Still, the former Huskie is a smart, confident player and someone that Tennessee could bring along slowly to eventually replace Harper.

31. Arizona Cardinals: Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
Mock 1.0 Projection: Brace
Starting nose tackle Bryan Robinson is 34 and although the team re-signed Gabe Watson, he’s not a long-term solution at the position. Brace definitely benefited from playing alongside B.J. Raji at Boston College, but he projects into a 3-4 nose tackle because he has the ability to shoot the gaps and give a good push up front. He has excellent size at 6’3”, 334 pounds.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
Mock 1.0 Projection: Robinson
Considering he’s the best guard prospect in the draft, Robinson might not last to the 32nd pick in the first round. But if he does, the Steelers would instantly upgrade their guard position with the 6’5”, 329-pound former Sooner. Robinson has outstanding strength and is very powerful.