Here are a couple of predictions sure to be wrong this winter. (It’s not that I lack confidence in my prediction abilities. I just have complete confidence that they won’t be right. But hey, let’s have some freaking fun anyway, huh?)

Albert Pujols: St. Louis Cardinals
Do the Cardinals really have any choice but to work out a deal with Pujols? He is their offense, period. Matt Holliday, David Freese and Lance Berkman are all nice players but their games are enhanced with the mere presence of Pujols, who remains the best hitter in baseball. St. Louis is coming off a miraculous World Series run and just lost icon Tony La Russa to retirement. Turning around and losing Pujols to the Cubs or Dodgers is simply unacceptable. I also believe that St. Louis is the only place Pujols wants to play. But he’s already said that he’s not going to take a hometown discount, which he shouldn’t. That said, considering the Cardinals have allowed him to essentially run the clubhouse over the last decade, he might find that the grass isn’t greener on the other side if he decides to leave. This is a marriage that should stick because it works for all parties involved.

Prince Fielder: Chicago Cubs
Seeing as how I don’t buy into the idea of Pujols leaving the Cardinals, the Cubs make the most sense for Fielder if they’re willing to spend. Signing Fielder could be the start of Theo Epstein’s rebuilding project in Chicago. While the Cubs have a couple of bad contracts on their books, Epstein could build his team around Fielder just like he did with Big Papi in Boston. Management would have to approve a $150-plus million contract for this deal to happen, but it’s clear the Cubs want to win. You don’t acquire Theo Epstein and then tell him to sit on his hands. Could you imagine how many home runs Fielder could hit at Wrigley? I think he just hit one deep while typing this…

Jose Reyes: New York Mets
There are plenty of suitors for Reyes, who is young and productive. The Marlins, Giants, Nationals, Phillies, Pirates, Reds, Twins, Rays and Cardinals could all get involved in the Reyes sweepstakes but in the end, I think he’ll return to the Big Apple. He’s a fan favorite and seemed willing to re-sign with the Mets during the season last year but the situation never played itself out. Trading Carlos Beltran during the deadline last year made sense, as does re-signing Reyes to a new long-term deal.

Carlos Beltran: Boston Red Sox
A return to San Francisco certainly makes sense for Beltran. The Giants obviously need hitting and GM Brian Sabean might want to save face after he inexcusably gave away his top pitching prospect for a three-month rental that didn’t even help San Fran make the playoffs. That said, the Giants still have Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito’s awful contracts on their books and once they get done paying Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, they’ll either be unable or unwilling to sign a big-name free agent. Boston, on the other hand, seems like a perfect place for a guy like Beltran to land. They’re always willing to spend and have a void in right field. Plus, they don’t shy away from risks and seeing as how Beltran is a 34-year-old injury concern, he qualifies as a risk. He’ll be their first free agent signing in the post-Epstein era.

C.J. Wilson: New York Yankees
I had the Rangers listed next to Wilson’s name but I have a feeling that the Yankees will do everything in their power to land the top pitcher on this year’s market. They need a top-of-the-rotation arm to complement CC Sabathia and while Wilson struggled mightily in the postseason this year, he still racked up 250 innings over 39 starts and was Texas’ best pitcher. The Yankees have deep pockets and after missing out on Cliff Lee last winter, they’ll pony up for another Ranger this time around.

Other Predictions:

Jimmy Rollins: Phillies
Aramis Ramirez: Orioles
Edwin Jackson: Nationals
Roy Oswalt: Rangers

Maybe Tony La Russa’s decision to retire was as much about timing as it was foreshadowing.

Why not retire if you’re La Russa? Your Cardinals were seemingly left for dead in spring training when Adam Wainwright went down for the season and again when your club trailed the Braves by 10.5 games in the NL Wild Card. Down to your last strike not once but twice in Game 6, your Cards flat lined multiple times before reviving to become 2011 World Series Champions. And with three titles in your back pocket plus four Manager of the Year awards, there’s really no reason to keep going. You’re financially set, you’re already a baseball icon, and you’ll get to walk away after climbing the very top of the mountain.

You’ll also leave a potentially disastrous situation behind you as you ride off into the sunset.

St. Louis fans still haven’t stopped partying from last Friday night, nor should they. What the Cardinals were able to accomplish this year was highly improbable and they’ll go down as one of the most memorable teams in baseball history. If you think about what had to happen for them to even sneak into the postseason was incredible. Then throw in how they knocked off the heavily favored Phillies, the feel-good Brewers and the high-powered Rangers and…wow. Again, it’s been an improbable journey.

But while St. Louis continues to bask in its World Series glory, the rest of the baseball world is gearing up for next year. And next year’s Cardinals might look completely different if the front office can’t convince Albert Pujols to stick around.

With Wainwright expected to come back to full health next season, the Cardinals’ starting rotation will be in good, if not great shape. Jason Motte also gave the audition of a lifetime last postseason to be the closer next year and the lineup is solid as well. Matt Holliday is a nice player. David Freese is a nice player. Lance Berkman, assuming he’s as good in 2012 as he was in 2011, is a nice player.

But without Pujols in the middle of that lineup, sorry, the Cardinals are an average team. Great baseball city, but an average team. They’ll be even worse if Berkman reverts back to his 2010 production and/or if Holliday visits the disabled list as much as he did this past season.

There were probably many reasons why La Russa decided to call it quits at this point in his career. And who could blame him if he got the sense that the front office won’t be able to give Pujols what he wants? Who could blame La Russa if he saw the writing was on the wall and instead of going out with a whimper he went out with a roar?

No matter what those reasons were for why La Russa decided to retire, he goes out as a champion and doesn’t have to spend this winter thinking about how to repeat next year, which is difficult enough.

It becomes even harder when you don’t have your superstar first baseman batting in the three hole.

The fiasco with the bullpen was bad enough, but Tony La Russa really blew it in the ninth inning. Tom Verducci explains:

In the seventh inning, either Pujols called his own hit-and-run play and didn’t swing, or Craig saw a sign that wasn’t there, or the moon was in the phase of Aquarius, but somehow the Cardinals gave up a runner at first (Craig was thrown out), which immediately allowed Washington to intentionally walk Pujols. It gets worse. In the ninth, trailing 4-2, Craig was on first base with no outs while Rangers closer Neftali Feliz had a full count on Pujols, who represented the tying run. La Russa ordered Craig to run on the pitch. Pujols, after two foul balls, chased ball four — a 99 mph fastball off the plate — swung through it and Craig was thrown out for double play.

Here is La Russa’s explanation in full:

“Yeah, I trusted Albert could put the ball in play. In fact, the two swings that he fouled the ball off with the second baseman going over, the hole was there and all of a sudden it was first and third and nobody out and the last pitch, the guy has a very live arm and it sailed on him and he missed. I liked sending him and having a chance to open that inning up, and it didn’t work.”

Think about what La Russa is saying here. Pujols represents the tying run, and yet La Russa is talking about him as if he is Nick Punto. He is thinking about Pujols — who two days earlier joined Babe Ruth and Reggie Jackson as the only men ever to hit three homers in a game — hitting a groundball through the right side of the infield with Kinsler covering second base. A groundball to second base with Pujols finally getting a chance to swing the bat as the potential tying run! Do you know how many opposite field singles Pujols had this year in 651 plate appearances? Eleven. Less than two percent of his plate appearances. And that counts all opposite field singles of any kind, including line drives, not just seeing-eye ground balls through the vacated second base hole.

Do you know how many times Pujols hit a homer this year? Thirty-seven — or more than three times more often than he hit opposite field singles.

Really, my head hurts trying to figure out what La Russa did to this game but mostly how he tried to explain it away. It was like being stuck in a gigantic corn maze. Blindfolded. At midnight. After getting spun around 38 times. Every explanation led to another turn that led to another dead end or false exit. The bottom line is he lost the game having a matchup he didn’t want — a left-hander pitching to red-hot Napoli — and he lost his last opportunity by getting a runner thrown out who, while down two runs, didn’t mean anything. I’ve never seen a game even close to this one and I hope never again to have to try to explain one like it.

Watching the game, I was stunned to see Pujols swinging at that last pitch, trying to protect the runner. One swing and the game would have been tied. This is a classic case of a manager over-thinking a situation. Earl Weaver would have sat back and let his horse take his swings.

Albert Pujols clubbed three home runs as the Cardinals pounded the Rangers 16-7 to take a 2-1 lead in the World Series. He also had 5 hits and 6 RBIs. The Cardinals chased Rangers starter Matt Harrison in the fourth inning and then continued their assault on a Texas bullpen that had been brilliant in the post-season.

The series had been characterized by low-scoring games, but everything changed when the teams arrived in the warm Texas climate. Both pitching staffs had a rough night, but Texas suffered a total collapse by giving up 15 runs.

It had looked like Texas may have stolen momentum in the series with their dramatic ninth-inning win in game two, but the Cardinals shook it off and unleashed Pujols and the rest of the offense. Pujols had received heavy criticism for not talking to the media after committing a key error in the ninth inning of game 2, but he shrugged that off as well.

It wouldn’t be a Cardinals-Reds series if somebody wasn’t yelling at somebody by the end of it.

On Sunday, Francisco Cordero was the recipient of some backlash from the Cardinals’ dugout after he hit slugger Albert Pujols with a pitch during an 0-2 count in the ninth inning. According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, St. Louis backup catcher Gerald Laird was mainly doing the barking at Cordero.

“Just a little fun,� Cordero said. “I think it was because I hit Pujols 0-2, Gerald Laird was all loud in the dugout. He was yelling at me and pointing at me and saying a whole bunch of stuff.

“Out of all the guys that are great hitters, great players, Gerald Laird doesn’t even play. He’s the one yelling at me because I hit Pujols 0-2. 0-2! I wasn’t trying to hit him. I’ve got to face (Matt) Holliday next, who can take the lead with one swing, and he’s yelling at me.

“All I know is he was loud, so I said something back to him.�

I don’t blame Laird or any other member of the Cardinals for being upset about Cordero hitting Pujols. Brandon Phillips was the one who threw gasoline on the fire last year by calling the Cardinals “little bitches� so now St. Louis always has its guard up.

But Laird has to realize the situation. Cordero isn’t going to hit Pujols on purpose when he has him down 0-2 in the count. To put the tying run on base with Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman coming up just doesn’t make sense. One could argue that Cordero chose that moment to hit Pujols because he would have the perfect excuse to claim it was accidental. But even Pujols admitted after the game that he didn’t think Cordero did it on purpose.

“I’m pretty sure Francisco didn’t try to do that on purpose,� Pujols told the St. Louis Post Dispatch. “He doesn’t want to bring the winning run to the plate with two big hitters, Matt and Berkman (coming up next). It’s probably something that slipped. You turn the page and get ready for tomorrow.�

What has to be more frustrating for the Cardinals than the situation with Cordero is the fact that they were swept by the Reds. St. Louis went into the weekend with a small lead in the NL Central and came out of it looking up at Cincinnati in the standings.

This was the title I used exactly one month ago after St. Louis starter Chris Carpenter suffered a minor injury during an exhibition game:

“The St. Louis Cardinals, your cursed team for 2011�

If this last month and a half has been an indication of how the rest of the year will play out for the Cards, it looks like I can save that title and reuse it throughout the season.

Thirty-seven days after it was discovered that starter Adam Wainwright would be out for the entire season following Tommy John surgery, and 30 days after Carpenter suffered his scare, St. Louis has learned that outfielder Matt Holliday will be out indefinitely following an appendectomy.

This news comes a day after Holliday went 3-for-4 with a homer and a walk in the Cardinals’ loss to the Padres in their home opener. He could miss anywhere from 1-6 weeks after undergoing the surgery, which means Albert Pujols won’t have his main protection in the lineup for maybe a month or more.

That said, the Cardinals believe that since the doctors “got it early,� it’s possible that Holliday may only miss “six or seven days.� And seeing as how Giants’ outfielder Andres Torres returned from his appendectomy last year in just 12 days, maybe St. Louis has reason for optimism regarding Holliday.

Of course, Torres also admitted that he probably came back too soon and hit just .250 over the last eight games following his surgery. The bottom line for Holliday and the Cardinals is that this is yet another setback in what already is turning out to be a long year in St. Louis.

Ah, the week where pitchers and catchers report to camp. It’s scheduled around Valentine’s Day for a reason, you know. It’s the time of year where hope springs eternal and love conquers all, and even if your favorite team doesn’t have a prayer of making the playoffs, it’s still all right to believe that they might make the playoffs. Faith, even blind faith, is a powerful thing, and it is never stronger for a baseball fan than it is right now.

For the people who actually play and manage the game of baseball, however, it is a much, much different story. Some have contract issues to deal with; others have to try and deliver the same numbers they racked up the previous year even when the lineup around them is depleted. Managers have to talk to reporters about taking baby steps with young players, while telling their shrink that they just can’t bear the thought of losing another 95 games. General managers have to find a way to fill that hole, and they all have a hole. Of the hundreds of players, managers, and baseball personnel currently working in the majors today, though, these are the ones we pity the most. (Thanks to the good people at Baseball Reference for their meticulous, endless stream of statistics and bread sticks.)

Vernon Wells

His contract (seven years, $126 million) was considered to be one of the most untradeable contracts in baseball, and his sub par performance after inking said contract only made it seem like an even bigger albatross. (Sports writers like using the word ‘albatross.’ It makes them look well read.) Granted, he broke his wrist in 2008, and dealt with the lingering effects of it in 2009, but no one remembers that; they just remember the numbers, and Wells was once again confirming his reputation as the “Star Trek” movie franchise of baseball players. Last year, wrist fully healed after surgery, Wells had a nice bounce-back year (he ranked 16th among outfielders in one of our points-based fantasy leagues), so you can see why The The Angels Angels of Anaheim, after missing out on Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford, would view Wells as a worthwhile gamble.

Having said that, Wells is positively boned if he turns in a season less than, or even equal to, his 2010 numbers. Anaheim is taking on nearly all of the money remaining on his contract (a whopping $86 million), and given that the Angels traded Juan Rivera and Mike Napoli in order to get him, Wells will be expected to perform at astronomical levels for the remainder of the contract. Good thing he has his stellar defense to fall back on during the rough patches.

Michael Young

Poor bastard. When the Rangers asked Michael Young to move from second base to shortstop to make room for Alfonso Soriano (who’s now a left fielder, by the way), Young did so. When the Rangers asked Young to move from shortstop – where he had just won his first Gold Glove – to third base in order to make room for Elvis Andrus, Young did so, though a bit more reluctantly than he was the first time. Now the Rangers have signed Adrian Beltre, and they’re asking Young not to play at all; just grab a bat every couple of innings. This is not in Young’s DNA, and Young, understandably, has requested a trade. The Rangers, however, are having a hard time finding a suitor for Young, thanks to his backloaded contract (three years, $48 million), which will make for one awkward clubhouse in a few days.

It’s hard not to feel bad for the guy. He merely signed the contract that the Rangers offered him, and his batting numbers have remained relatively consistent (save for his nine home runs in 2007, though he did knock in 94 runs and steal 13 bases that year). The Rangers are trying to grant his trade wish – they’ve reached out to Colorado and Florida – but everyone in baseball knows the Rangers are stuck, and they’re telling the Rangers they’ll take Young if the Rangers eat the vast majority of his contract. As it stands, it looks as though Young will be a DH and part-time first baseman. As selfless as he’s been in terms of doing what was best for the team, it has to sting that this is how he’s rewarded for his selflessness.

It’s kind of ironic that Albert Pujols’ camp didn’t want the superstar’s contract situation to become a distraction because that’s exactly what it’s become.

Wednesday’s Noon deadline came and went without Pujols and the Cardinals agreeing to a new contract. As it stands now, the slugger will head into the 2012 offseason as a free agent and the Cards will just have to hope another team doesn’t whisk him away before they have another chance to re-sign him. (If they even want to re-sign him, that is. It sounds like the club has no plans of meeting Pujols’ 10-year, $275 million-plus demands.)

But what’s unclear to me is why the discussions have to cease. I think it’s admirable that Pujols doesn’t want his personal situation to become a distraction to his teammates, but that’s out of his hands. Does anyone think that the media in St. Louis isn’t going to ask him about his future plans just because his deadline passed? Does he think the media in New York, Chicago or L.A. won’t poke and prod him every night when the Cardinals play the Mets, Cubs and Dodgers on the road?

Sorry Albert, but your situation will be a distraction whether you like it or not. So you might as well let your camp continue discussing dollar amounts with the team over these next couple of months. At least then you can say, “Hey, my agent is working on it. I’m staying out of it.� That sounds a heck of a lot better than, “I’m going to body slam the next sum bitch that says the word contract.� (What, that doesn’t sound like Pujols?)

I think everyone needs to use common sense here. Albert has stated that he wants to stay in St. Louis and you know the Cardinals don’t want to lose him. So if the main objective is to keep him in the Lou, then the two sides might as well keep the lines of communication open throughout the season. Again, it’s not realistic to think that everyone will fall hush over these next couple of months just because Pujols’ deadline passed on Wednesday. He’s baseball’s best player and this story is the biggest in baseball. Who knows, maybe if the two sides keep talking, they’ll eventually settle on something and everyone can put this mess behind them.

Tony La Russa doesn’t believe that Albert Pujols is all about the money. He thinks it’s that damn Major League Baseball Players Association that is making Albert Pujols be all about the money.

From ESPN.com:

St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said Tuesday that he believes the Major League Baseball Players Association is attempting to “beat up” Albert Pujols and his agent in an attempt to get Pujols to sign a record-setting contract.

And that, La Russa said emphatically, “is bull—-. That’s not the way it should be.”

“I’m not saying that if I was a union representative I would do it differently,” the manager said. “I’m just saying I think it diminishes the other factors that a player looks at. … I think each negotiation should be based on what’s the best decision — taking everything into account, not taking one thing into account.”

But because the union sees Pujols as a player who can raise the salary bar, he’s under more pressure than your average player, La Russa said.

This sort of pressure has gone on for years, with many high-profile players, La Russa went on. But in Pujols’ case, he said, this was “not just arm-twisting. It’s dropping an anvil on your back through the roof of your house.”

La Russa said he had no specific evidence that Pujols was being pressured by the players union. But he said his many years in the game have made that “a guaranteed assumption. It’s gone on since I started managing. And I don’t think they’d deny it.”

I think the first sentence in that last paragraph sums up this situation nicely: La Russa has no evidence that the players union is pressuring Pujols.

Who knows, maybe La Russa is right and the union is pressuring players to get the most they can. But it’s not a stretch to think that the players and agents want to soak every last penny out of teams. Why wouldn’t they? If they’re lucky, players are able to land one, maybe two big contracts throughout their playing career, so you better believe they’re going to stretch the dollar amount as big as possible.

Besides, I don’t really see a benefit for the union to demand that players ask for as much money as possible. There’s already a natural order to the way contracts are done now. Player A makes X amount in 2010, then Player B makes a little more than what Player A made in 2011. Player C then makes a little more than Player B and the cycle never stops.

The union already has what it wants, so there’s no real need to put pressure on players. I think La Russa has just grown frustrated that this Pujols contract situation hasn’t been resolved and the players are set to report to spring training.

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Albert Pujols rejected a recent contract offer by the Cardinals and is ready to cease all talks about a new deal until after the World Series.

Pujols, trying to avoid distractions, has no intention of addressing the contract talks when he reports Wednesday to the Cardinals’ spring-training camp in Jupiter, Fla. Manager Tony La Russa told reporters Sunday he will also encourage his players to avoid the issue.

“This is a spectacular distraction potentially,” La Russa said. “We won’t allow it to be.”

Even if Pujols continues his silence about his future, it won’t squelch the firestorm that has already been created in St. Louis. Newspaper columnists are picking sides. The phrase “#Albertageddon” is gaining popularity on Twitter. And a Web site — albertcountdown.com — is counting down to when he arrives at spring training and terminates negotiations.

“I read that he’s looking for $30 million a year, and I just can’t see how that’s going to happen,” said Andy MacPhail, Baltimore Orioles president of baseball operations, during a Q&A at the Baltimore School of Law Sports Symposium.

He may get $30 million a year but it probably won’t come from the Cardinals. As I’ve wrote for the past couple of weeks, St. Louis’ payroll usually never tops $100 million so it seems unlikely that the club would give one player $275 million over the span of 10 years. (Even if that player is Albert Pujols.)

I don’t think the Cards ever intended to give Pujols a new deal by his spring training deadline. They need more time to figure out what they’re going to do and they’ll be given that time when the season begins. But in the end, they’re still going to have to make a decision. Either pay the best player in the game what he wants or watch him walk out the door.