Despite Brett Favre’s best efforts to give the game away, the Vikings earned their first victory of the 2010 season by beating the Lions 24-10 on Sunday.
Adrian Peterson saved another lackluster effort by the passing game by rushing for 160 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries (7.0 YPC). His longest run came on an 80-yard touchdown scamper with three minutes remaining in the third quarter to give the Vikes a 24-10 lead. Thanks to Minnesota’s inability to score, the Lions still had a couple of chances to tie the game in the fourth but Shaun Hill couldn’t make enough plays.
Favre completed 23-of-34 pass attempts for 201 yards and one touchdown, but he also threw two interceptions and lost a fumble. Fortunately for him, Lions’ rookie Ndamukong Suh negated the play by going up high to Favre’s head when bringing him down. Still, he has now thrown six interceptions in three games and could have thrown another if the pick wasn’t overturned on a penalty. Outside of a decent throw to Percy Harvin for a touchdown in the first half (one in which nobody was within three feet of Harvin, yet he still had to dive to make the catch), he continues to be out of sync with his receivers.
Make no mistake – the Vikings aren’t a very good football team. They may have won, but they committed 12 penalties for 100 yards and turned the ball over three times. Their sloppiness was nullified because they were playing the Lions, but either way this wasn’t a very impressive performance.
As of right now, the Vikes are a very distant third behind the Packers and Bears in the NFC North. Their defense continues to play well, but if opponents find ways to stop AP then Minnesota is screwed because Lord Favre isn’t going to beat them like he did last year. He looks every bit of his age right now.
Well, it wasn’t a particularly well-played first game of the NFL season, but it was a tight game nonetheless. Here are five things that fantasy owners can take away from last night’s opener:
1. Pierre Thomas is a stud, and Sean Payton forgets that sometimes. (Adrian Peterson is a stud, and Brad Childress forgets that sometimes.)
In the first half, Payton gave Thomas three touches for -1 yards. He did have a 10-yard catch that was called back due to penalty. In the second half, the Saints tried to establish the running game in earnest and Thomas 72 yards on his next 16 carries — an impressive 4.5 ypc average during that span against the league’s #1-rated rush defense of 2009. He also found the endzone and caught three passes for 15 yards.
Meanwhile, “Chilly” abandoned the run when the Vikings were behind by just five points in the second half. Anthony Stalter has the details:
Down 14-9 with just over nine minutes remaining, Childress called seven straight pass plays. There was plenty of time for him to remain balanced with his playcalling, but he went pass-heavy and the result was a stalled drive at the New Orleans’ 44. He essentially made Gregg Williams’ job a hell of a lot easier once the Saints’ DC new he didn’t have to respect the running game.
The bottom line is that Childress appears to trust Favre more than AP, and that should be worrisome to Peterson owners. AP did finish with 101 yards on 22 touches, but failed to find the endzone.
2. Brett Favre loves him some Visanthe Shiancoe. Not so much the Percy Harvin.
Almost as important as actual production (catches, yards, TDs) is the number of targets each receiver gets throughout the course of the game. I’ve been high on Shiancoe all preseason — mostly due to Favre’s long-established affection for his tight ends — and he didn’t disappoint against the Saints, turning eight targets into 4-76-1. Conversely, Harvin only got five targets and looked out of sync with Favre all night. This is probably due to the time that both players missed in training camp due to migraines (Harvin) and being a total drama queen (Favre). I wouldn’t panic on Harvin just yet — it will probably just take a week or two for the chemistry to return, but I would consider sitting Harvin down next week if there’s a better option on the bench.
3. Don’t expect another 2009 from #4.
In all of his years in Green Bay, Favre never played with a receiver as physically gifted as Sidney Rice, and that was a big reason for his outstanding numbers last season. With Rice on the shelf for at least the first half of the season, Favre can’t just chuck the football downfield and expect Rice to go up and win virtually every jump ball. Without that deep threat, the Vikings are going to have to manufacture more first downs and longer drives, and as we saw last night, it’s not always going to be pretty.
4. Garrett Hartley is on the hot seat.
Good grief, Garrett. Make a field goal, will you? Hartley was often one of the first two or three kickers off the board and he was miserable last night, shanking two make-able field goal attempts. He’s lucky that it didn’t cost the Saints the game because there are a few capable kickers out there in free agency.
5. Robert Meachem/Devery Henderson are both startable in deep formats, though they’re not dependable.
On the heels of his breakout campaign last season, Meachem was going in the middle rounds (8th-10th) of fantasy drafts this summer, even though he’s coming off of a toe injury. Meanwhile, Henderson was available in the later rounds due to his inconsistency and history of burning fantasy owners. Both players saw four targets from Drew Brees. Henderson posted 2-38-1 while Meachem generated 3-33 and just missed a 14-yard TD early in the fourth quarter. I think Meachem is the better wideout and if he can stay healthy, he should finish the season as the Saints WR2, but Henderson looked pretty good in his own right. There’s enough offense for both of these players to finish in the Top 40, but don’t expect consistency week-to-week until one guy grabs the WR2 job (and WR2-type targets).
One of the many things that is intriguing about football is that the game can often be decided by just one facet of the contest, whether it be a team’s running strength verses its opponents weak run defense, or an elite quarterback being able to pick apart a porous secondary.
With that in mind, here are two key factors that could determine who gets the edge in the much-ballyhooed matchup between the Vikings and Saints tonight.
Saints’ strength vs. Vikings’ weakness
Seeing as how Brees usually beats teams with his arm, many people assume that the Saints’ strength is their passing game. But their true strength is in their balance and Sean Payton’s ability to adjust his game plan to take advantage of an opponent’s weakness. Minnesota’s weakness defensively is in its secondary, where injuries have left the unit thin as a whole. Antoine Winfield can certainly hold his own on the left side, but Lito Sheppard is often inconsistent in coverage, which isn’t good considering the two safeties (Tyrell Johnson and Madieu Williams) had trouble in pass defense last year. Brees knows how to beat teams up the seam and has plenty of weapons to attack the Vikings’ soft secondary. That said, it’s vital that he has enough time to throw or else his timing will be thrown off and Minnesota will be able to keep the game close. Jared Allen and Ray Edwards are the strength of the Vikings’ defense and the biggest weakness the Saints have offensively is left tackle Jermon Bushrod, who was exposed last year by DeMarcus Ware in a loss to the Cowboys. However, if Brees has time to throw, expect some big plays tonight for New Orleans.
Vikings’ strength vs. Saints’ weakness
It was interesting to watch the Vikings transform from a balanced squad last year to a team that predominantly relied on the pass with Brett Favre under center. But seeing as how Sidney Rice is out and questions remain about Favre’s ankle, the key for Minnesota tonight will be Adrian Peterson. Everyone knows what the Saints’ offense is capable of, which is why Minnesota needs to rely on AP to chew up the clock and keep Drew Brees and Co. on the sidelines. If they can’t establish the run against a soft New Orleans’ run defense (especially at defensive tackle), then don’t expect Favre to be able to attack the Saints’ secondary without his No. 1 wideout from a season ago. Brad Childress’ overall game plan tonight should be to control the tempo on the ground, control the clock and escape New Orleans with a victory.
The NFC North will challenge the NFC East this year for being the toughest division in the conference. Three of the four teams are legit playoff contenders, while the Lions only continue to improve as a whole.
Here’s how I see things shaking out in the NFC North in 2010. Be sure to check out the link entitled “2010 Question Mark” under each team’s preview, which is a breakdown of one or two potential weaknesses that could derail that squad’s hopes this season.
1. Packers
What to Like: Given how well he played last year, Aaron Rodgers should be considered a MVP candidate this season. The fact that he was able to throw for 4,434 yards and compile a 103.2 QB rating despite constantly being under pressure is rather amazing. Just think about what he could accomplish this year if the O-line gave him even a fraction of a second more time to throw. Rodgers will lead a passing attack that racked up 261.3 yards per game last season, which was good for seventh in the NFL. He also has an assortment of weapons to throw to, namely receivers Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, as well as rising talent Jermichael Finley. In the backfield, Ryan Grant continues to be underrated and is coming off a 1,253-yard, 11-touchdown season. Defensively, Dom Capers was a miracle worker in his first year, as Green Bay led the NFC in total defense despite switching to the 3-4 (most first-year 3-4 teams struggle). Rookie Clay Matthews turned out to be a phenomenal pass-rusher and Nick Barnett was outstanding in the middle, both against the run and in coverage. Despite his age, Charles Woodson (33) continues to play at an elite level. What Not to Like: The offensive line was a disaster at times last year, save for the play of right guard Josh Sitton. If Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher can make it through an entire season without suffering injuries, this will be a much-improved unit and then Rodgers won’t have to spend most Sunday afternoons running for his life. But both tackles are in their 30s and injuries always seem to be an issue. At left guard, Daryn Colledge struggled, although it’s only fair to point out that he was out of position subbing at tackle. While Tramon Williams is more than capable of handling the starting corner position opposite Woodson, losing Al Harris (knee surgery) was a huge blow to Green Bay’s depth at secondary. The concern is that given Harris’ age (35) and the nature of his injury, he may never play again. The other potential issue on defense is whether or not B.J. Raji can handle playing nose tackle after a lackluster 2009 season as a 3-4 end. All good 3-4 teams have a stout nose tackle to eat up space and if Raji isn’t up for the task, it will certainly have an effect on the linebackers. Keep Your Eye On:Jermichael Finley
Finley put himself on the map last season by catching 55 passes for 676 yards and five touchdowns in just 13 games. He finished the year by hauling in six passes for 159 yards in Green Bay’s loss to the Cardinals in the first round of the playoffs, leading to high expectations this year. If he can stay focused (which is the biggest concern with this youngster), he could put up fantastic numbers in the Packers’ explosive passing attack this season. The Final Word: Expectations are high for the Packers this year, as well they should be. If the offensive line can stay healthy then this is the team to beat in the NFC North. The great thing is that Ted Thompson spent his first round draft pick on tackle/guard Bryan Bulaga, meaning Green Bay now has depth in case injuries do start to mount. Rodgers is the real deal and could lead the Pack deep into the playoffs if his O-line doesn’t get him killed first. Defensively, there are some concerns but Capers will make up for them by being aggressive. If the Packers can win the division and force opponents to come to Green Bay come January, then this will be a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season. The pieces are in place for this team to make a serious run.
In case you haven’t heard, Sidney Rice will be out until midseason after undergoing hip surgery. Obviously, this is a big loss for the Vikings, but what about the fantasy implications?
Let’s start with Rice himself. He’s going to miss the first half of the season and that assumes his recovery goes to plan. Rice is no more than a late-round pick. Stash him on your roster if you have the space and hope that he makes it back for the stretch run.
This news theoretically bumps up Harvin’s stock a bit, but with his migraine issues, there’s no guarantee he’s going to play 16 games either. He’s been going 6.10 over the last week, and while I’d rather have Santana Moss at this point, Harvin is not a bad pick in the 6th or the 7th. But don’t draft him unless you have a high tolerance for week-to-week uncertainty. That’s just how it’s going to be with Harvin, at least for this year.
Bernard Berrian seemingly gets the biggest bump of all the Viking players, and a 29 years old, he has plenty of football left to play. But Berrian is not Rice, so don’t expect anything more than fantasy WR3-type numbers. He’s currently going in the 14th, but I’d start to think about him in the 10th. And remember, he could be pushed back to the bench midseason if Rice comes back.
I’d also bump up Visanthe Shiancoe a bit more. I already liked him as a mid- to late-round sleeper after he posted TE5-type numbers over the last half of the ’09 season. Favre loves to throw to his tight end, especially around the goal line, and with Rice out, he’ll lean on Shiancoe even more.
As for Favre himself, this will probably hurt his numbers. He has a tendency to throw the ball up for grabs, and Rice excelled at using his length and leaping ability to go up and snag the ball out of the air. I’d expect fewer yards, fewer TDs and more picks. That’s just the nature of the beast.
The last guy to consider is Adrian Peterson. With Rice out, the defense will be able to crowd the box a bit more, but he’ll likely get more carries with the Vikings taking a more conservative approach offensively. His ypc will probably dip a bit, but more carries could offset this. I would still draft him in the top 4.
It’s only one player – a receiver, mind you. And even though this particular receiver caught 83 passes for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns last season, he’s still only a receiver.
The Vikings can get by without Sidney Rice, who has elected to undergo hip surgery and is expected to miss half of the regular season. They still have Adrian Peterson, a solid offensive line, an excellent defense and an above average linebacker corps. And even though Rice was a huge part of their offense last season, Brett Favre has a habit of turning previously no-named receivers into Pro Bowlers.
Just look at Rice himself.
But even though the Vikings made it to the NFC Championship Game last season with practically the same roster, does anyone else get the sense that this team is in store for a freefall this year?
Favre is another year older and is coming off ankle surgery. Rice is out until midseason. Percy Harvin’s migraines are already holding him back. Peterson presumably still has fumbling issues. Versatile backup Chester Taylor is in Chicago. The secondary still has question marks. Etc.
Oh yeah, and Brad Childress is still in charge.
Even before Rice was hurt, I liked the Packers’ chances more than I did the Vikings. Assuming their offensive line holds up, they seem to be a more complete football team right now than the Vikings, whom everyone will be gunning for this season after they ripped apart the competition last year. That’s not to say that Minnesota isn’t a playoff contender because it is. I just don’t get the sense that this team is built to hold up for an entire 16-game season.
Again, Rice is only one player and I’m certainly not suggesting that because he’s out that the Vikings will crumble. But does anyone have more confidence in them right now than the Saints, Cowboys or Packers? I could see the Vikes racing out to a decent start but fading down the stretch. And I have zero faith in Childress to keep everything together.
If at least two of those three things don’t grab your attention, then maybe it’s time for you to turn in your man card.
The second annual Fantasy Football SUPERDRAFT will be held at The Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas on August 26-28 this year and will include a concert by Snoop Dogg, a Draft Room for fantasy football fans, VIP parties hosted by Stacy Keibler and a live celebrity draft conducted by Ashton Kutcher.
Interested? We thought you might be.
Nathan Zegura, the founder of TheFantasyConsultant.com and the host of “The Fantasy Consultant Live” on SiriusXM’s new Fantasy Sports Channel, joined us recently to chat up this year’s Fantasy Football SUPERDRAFT, as well as provide details on how you can attend. (You’ll probably be shocked at how very little it’ll cost you to soak in a fantasy football-filled weekend with Snoop, Stacy Keibler and Ashton Kutcher in Vegas.)
We also couldn’t allow Nathan to get off the phone without picking his brain about this year’s upcoming fantasy season, so we asked him what his top 5 looks like, who his top 3 sleepers are and what kind of expectations we could have for players like Frank Gore and Michael Turner.
For more information about the second annual Fantasy Football SUPERDRAFT, head to FantasySuperdraft.com and for more on Nathan and his fantasy football consulting services, check out TheFantasyConsultant.com and the site’s Twitter Page.
The Scores Report: Hi, this is Anthony.
Nathan Zegura: Hey Anthony, this is Nathan Zegura calling in.
TSR: Hey Nathan, how are you today, man?
NZ: I’m doing great – how are you doing?
TSR: I’m doing well. I’m just reading over this Fantasy Football SUPERDRAFT deal and I’m blown away. I’m trying to figure out a way I can go!
NZ: It’s awesome – I went last year actually. It was cool, I was one of the experts that were asked to be on-site last year and it’s an awesome event. It’s a great time, great parties and, in addition to being able to do your draft and have all your boys there, you also get to do things in Vegas that you wouldn’t otherwise do for a grand total of $125 over the course of three days.
TSR: (Laughs) Sure.
NZ: I actually became pretty good friends with Eric Simon, who is the guy that started SUPERDRAFT. It was kind of his brainchild and it’s been very neat to see it grow and see it get to where it is this year. It’s going to be awesome with Snoop, Stacy Keibler (photo left)…they’re having a model search there – it’s going to be crazy. I can’t even wait until the end of August – I’m fired up.
TSR: Like I said, I was reading over this and my eye caught that Snoop and, well, my eye caught that Stacy Keibler was going to be there actually, but it’s amazing the entertainers that you guys got to come out this year. And it’s all centered around fantasy football, which has grown into this unbelievable vehicle now for entertainment.
NZ: Totally. Eric’s vision for SUPERDRAFT is to bring entertainment and sports together in the perfect place, which is Las Vegas. Ashton Kutcher is actually my partner and he owns half of my website, TheFantasyConsultant.com. I was able to bring Ashton and Eric together on the SUPERDRAFT idea, so we’re going to do a live broadcast of our show, which is “Fantasy Football Live” in addition to the various parties that are going to be there. And then obviously Snoop, who I personally as a kid who grew up in California, am very excited about.
The next player to complain about his contract will be Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, who missed the mandatory minicamp due to a scheduling conflict.
That was the only details Lombardi provided on the topic, so we’ll have to wait and see if the story develops from here.
Peterson is in the midst of a six-year, $40.5 million deal that he signed after being drafted with the seventh overall pick in 2007. His contract has a lot of incentives and it doesn’t run out until 2013, so he wouldn’t have much leverage if he were to complain.
That said, he’s the Vikings’ offense (although it was clearly Brett Favre’s team in the second half last year) and if he did follow through with a long holdout, Minnesota might be forced to re-do his deal. Hopefully he’ll honor his current contract, but with no CBA deal in place, players are trying to get what they can now.
Brad Childress has made it clear that he’s upset with Adrian Peterson for not showing up at the Vikings’ most recent minicamp. Of course Brett Favre isn’t there, but if Brett wanted to walk around the team complex in his underwear and punch babies in his free time, then Childress has no problem with that. Brett can do whatever he damn well pleases.
From ESPN.com:
Childress opened his post-practice media session by noting this is a “mandatory minicamp.” He provided terse answers about Peterson’s absence, suggested that discipline will be discussed and mocked the significance of “the fourth annual Adrian Peterson day” in Palestine, Texas.
Does it annoy you that he’s not here?
BC: I just know that there’s a bunch of guys here. This has a term “mandatory” for a reason. The work is here. Period. You can say whatever you want. This is the fourth annual Adrian Peterson day. I don’t know if it’s going to be every year. But we’re going to have this, too. …
When did he inform you he wouldn’t be here?
BC: In my office on Thursday. Maybe Wednesday.
Was that a surprise or did you know it was a possibility?
BC: I think somebody showed me something on a website. I had an inkling. Let’s put it that way. I didn’t know if he was going to come out here and practice this afternoon, and then catch a late flight. I didn’t know how he would.
Are you worried that players will start to question the standard you have set for Favre and want to skip camps?
BC: First of all, that’s a special circumstance. I don’t think Adrian is batting around retirement in his mind. It’s a special set of circumstances. Is it special? Is everything equal? Obviously it’s not. That’s just the way it is. It’s a matter of fact. I think everyone understands that from our side.
Sorry, but that’s horseshit. If Childress is going to have a rule that all players must show up to mandatory workouts, then Favre shouldn’t be exempt from that. I realize Brett has a Super Bowl ring on his shelf and Peterson doesn’t, but this is exactly why people shouldn’t respect Childress. This is the second year that he’s bent over and taken it square up the pooper from Favre and if it weren’t so sad, I’d find it humorous that he goes along with whatever Lord Brett wants.
Do I think Peterson should be at camp instead of at a parade? Yeah. But so should Favre. I don’t care how old he is or what injury he’s milking – if he wants to be a part of the Vikings, then he should be in mandatory camps just like everyone else. And don’t tell me that just because Brett knows the offense like the back of his hand that he doesn’t need to be in camp with his teammates. Last time I checked, the Vikings didn’t win the Super Bowl last year.
