All 2010 Fantasy Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

Before the onset of a draft, many fantasy owners believe that they better select their first baseman in one of the first three rounds. If they don’t land Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira or Ryan Howard early, then their entire draft could be ruined.

There’s certainly nothing wrong in subscribing to this theory. Making first base a top priority is a wise decision given the production you’ll get across the board from someone like Cabrera, Teixeira and of course, Pujols. That said, there are many owners that don’t mind waiting to address first base, instead choosing to stockpile players at more scarce fantasy positions. That’s not a bad way to go either, especially if other owners are focusing on first base in the first couple rounds.

We don’t need to re-hash how good guys like Pujols and Fielder are. Instead, here are seven first basemen that you can nab in the middle rounds if you choose to address other positions early. You won’t get the same out-of-this-world numbers that you would from a Pujols, Fielder or Cabrera from these seven, but chances are you’ll be quite satisfied by your first base production by the end of the season.

Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
We don’t have to sell you on Reynolds given his breakout 2009 campaign. He hit 44 dingers and drove in 102 runs while hitting .260 last year and while he may not duplicate those numbers, if he keeps his steals up (he swiped 24 bags last season) then he’ll be extremely valuable. You’d be in good shape if you grabbed premier players at other positions and then nabbed Reynolds after the top seven or eight first basemen come off the board.

Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
It would be nice if Youk could stay healthy for an entire season, but his production has been solid the last couple years. He hits for average, will give you 20-plus dingers, score 95-plus runs and drive in around 100 RBI. Don’t forget that he has added bonus given that he also qualifies as a third baseman.

Derrek Lee, Cubs
While his production didn’t match his 2006 output, Lee turned in a banner 2009. He hit .306, smacked 35 home runs, drove in 111 RBI and scored 91 runs. Assuming his home run production doesn’t dip back to the 20-22 range like it did in 2007 and 2008, Lee would be a solid pickup in the middle rounds.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants
Last year, we predicted that Sandoval could be the ultimate fantasy sleeper and we’d like to think that we nailed that projection. (Hey, this back isn’t going to pat itself.) This year, everyone knows about the “Kung Fu Panda,” so you may have to snag him a round or two earlier than you may have wanted. But that’s okay given that he’s more than capable of hitting upwards of .330 again with 25-30 home runs. Hopefully the additions the Giants made in the offseason (Aubrey Huff, Mark DeRosa, Freddy Sanchez) will allow Sandoval to drive in over 100 RBI this year as well. Draft the Panda (who also qualifies as a 3B) with confidence.

Kendry Morales, Angels
After the All-Star Break last season, Morales hit .330 and slugged 19 home runs. If he can carry that kind of production over to 2010, then he’ll be a steal later in your draft. Hopefully his second half numbers from ’09 weren’t an aberration and instead, a sign of great things to come for the 26-year-old. Value Morales higher in keeper leagues given his age.

Lance Berkman, Astros
The concern about Berkman is that his home run totals have dropped over the last three seasons. But if he can get his average back up (he hit .274 last year after hitting .312 in 2008) into the .300 range, then he still represents plenty of value. He’s often viewed as an unspectacular option on draft day, so there’s a good chance he’ll fall to the later rounds. You can do much worse than having a seasoned vet like Berkman at first base, especially if his home run numbers rebound.

Adam Dunn, Nationals
When you draft Dunn, you resign to the fact that he’s never going to hit .300 or score 90 runs. But you’ll gladly take the 40 home runs and 100-plus RBI while looking for average elsewhere.

Below is our official ranking of first basemen.

1. Albert Pujols, STL
2. Prince Fielder, MIL
3. Mark Teixeira, NYY
4. Miguel Cabrera, DET
5. Ryan Howard, PHI
6. Adrian Gonzalez, SD
7. Joey Votto, CIN
8. Justin Morneau, MIN
9. Mark Reynolds, ARZ
10. Kevin Youkilis, BOS
11. Derrek Lee, CHC
12. Kendry Morales, LAA
13. Pablo Sandoval, SF
14. Lance Berkman, HOU
15. Adam Dunn, CIN
16. Victor Martinez, BOS
17. Carlos Pena, Rays
18. Billy Butler, KC
19. Michael Cuddyer, MIN
20. James Loney, LAD
21. Jorge Cantu, FLA
22. Chris Davis, TEX
23. Adam LaRoche, AZ
24. Todd Helton, COL
25. Garrett Jones, PIT

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Offseason movement: The D-Backs made a couple of nice moves, including signing potential leadoff hitter and everyday second baseman Felipe Lopez, as well as free agent starter Jon Garland. They also added Tom Gordon and Scott Schoeneweis to help setup closer Chad Qualls. Randy Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Adam Dunn, Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz and David Eckstein all vacated the desert this offseason.

Top Prospect: Jarrod Parker, RHP
Unlike other clubs that have a couple of players that could be viewed as top prospects, there’s no question that Parker is the best of the best in the D-Backs’ farm system. The 9th overall pick in the 2007 amateur draft, Parker stands just 6’0”, 175 pounds and is rather small in stature. But his fastball is dominating and has even drawn comparisons to Roy Oswalt, which is quite the compliment in itself. The 20-year old probably won’t get the opportunity to crack the big league roster for another year or two, but he could be quite the No. 3 behind Brandon Webb and Dan Haren as early as 2011.

The Big Question: Can this club make a postseason run without a dominant closer?
Chad Qualls will likely emerge as the Opening Day closer, but that doesn’t mean that it’s his job for keeps. He’ll have to continue to earn it throughout the season because Tony Pena, Jon Rauch and even Tom Gordon will have the opportunity to snatch the role from him if he starts to falter (much like they did this spring). The D-Backs are definitely a contender and could win the NL West given their young lineup and outstanding starting pitching. But will the lack of a dominant closer eventually sink them? Manager Bob Melvin can’t be worried about who will close out a tight ballgame in the ninth, so hopefully Qualls will not only keep the job all season, but also be steady and reliable.

Outlook: As soon as Manny Ramirez re-signed with the Dodgers, everyone and their mother was ready to hand the weak NL West over to the boys in blue. But people seem to be forgetting how good the Diamondbacks’ starting pitching is, and how good it can be. (Okay, well maybe people aren’t forgetting, but they certainly seem to be pushing it aside to drink out of the Manny Ramirez-Dodgers Kool Aid fountain.) Brandon Webb and Dan Haren form one of the best 1-2 punches in the NL and offseason addition Jon Garland won 14 games for the Angels last year. Throw in emerging youngster Max Scherzer and ‘Zona has the best rotation in the NL. The problem (and it’s a big one, which is why many believe L.A. is the team to beat in the NL West) is that the D-Backs’ lineup is pretty weak. It isn’t San Francisco Giants-weak, but weak nonetheless. Felipe Lopez isn’t an upgrade over Orlando Hudson and while Chris Young and Justin Upton have loads of potential, neither of them even sniffed a .270 batting average last season. The lineup is full of holes and strikeout artists and losing Adam Dunn cuts down on the power production. It’ll be interesting to see which team emerges in the NL West this year – the offensive-friendly Dodgers or the pitching-stacked Diamondbacks. We’ll go with the pitching and say ‘Zona comes out on top.

Projection: 1st NL West

David Wright delivered a game-winning single in the bottom of the ninth to propel Team USA past Puerto Rico and into the semis of the World Baseball Classic.

Talent won out in the end, even though Team USA has constantly stepped on its own feet by trying to get everyone into the game and still not play matchups at all. Down 5-3 in the ninth, Team USA got back-to-back singles from Shane Victorino and Brian Roberts against J.C. Romero. Derek Jeter then grounded out, advancing only the lead runner. However, Roberts stole second base and Jimmy Rollins walked to load them, resulting in Romero’s departure. After Fernando Cabrera came in, Kevin Youkilis, who homered earlier, walked to force in a run, and Wright dumped a ball into right field to score two runs. It was his third hit of the game.

I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t think that USA’s pitching staff would carry them this far. And really, the pitching hasn’t been that great (USA’s team ERA is 6.10) but guys like Wright, Roberts, Victorino, Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn and Jimmy Rollins have been killing the ball. Hopefully the bats stay alive and we can all see a Team USA gold medal.

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Offseason Movement: Perhaps the Nats’ biggest addition was 1B/OF Adam Dunn, who will add some pop to the lineup, as well as a fair amount of strikeouts. Washington also acquired OF Josh Willingham and LHP Scott Olsen in a trade with the Marlins and signed free agents Daniel Cabrera, Alex Cintron and Javier Valentin. In the deal to land Willingham and Olsen, the Nationals agreed to send 2B Emilio Bonifaci, INF Jake Smolinski and RHP P.J. Dean to Florida.

Top Prospect: Jordan Zimmerman, RHP
Zimmermann is a serious Rookie of the Year candidate and is turning in a fantastic spring. As of this writing, he has allowed only six hits, two walks and has struck out 16 batters over 12 1/3 scoreless innings. He seems to be over shadowed on a national level, but that’s mostly because the Nationals have yet to officially hand him a spot in the starting rotation. But that should change soon and as long as he doesn’t let the bright lights of the Big Leagues eat him alive, the 22-year old could be a future star.

The Big Question: How bad will the bullpen be?
Take a gander at these names: Joel Hanrahan, Saul Rivera, Steven Shell, Garrett Mock, Jason Bergmann, Julian Taverez and Mike Hinckley. None really strike the fear of God into any hitter do they? Hanrahan, Rivera and Shell are average at best and Taverez is better at delivering quotes than he is on the hill these days. If the Nats get anything out of former starters Mock and Bergmann, maybe this unit can survive the season. But that’s a huge “if”.

Outlook: This club is actually filled with potential, but that’s about it at this point. Shortstop Cristian Guzman raked last year, hitting .316 with nine home runs and six stolen bases at the leadoff position. Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes have a ton of talent, but they can’t seem to keep their heads on straight. Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman should complement each other well hitting 3-4 in the lineup, but there are some major question marks at the bottom of the order. Can Nick Johnson stay healthy? The starting pitching isn’t terrible, with John Lannan, Scott Olson and Daniel Cabrera leading the way at the top of the rotation. And if Jordan Zimmermann develops like everyone expects, Washington could have an above average starting five. But the pullben is a major weakness and there just seems to be too many question marks surrounding this club. It’s safe to expect some improvement out of the Nats, but it probably won’t be anything earth shattering.

Projection: 5th NL East

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

The great thing about addressing your outfielder positions on draft day is that there are so many to choose from that chances are if you don’t like one facet about a certain player (i.e. age, inexperience, he plays for the Red Sox and you’re a Yankees fan, etc.), you can move on to one of the many other choices available.

Conversely, with so many players to choose from, you’re liable to stick your head in an oven in order to avoid having to decide between which outfielders will explode and which will wind up on your league’s wavier wire after making you suffer for the first couple months of the season.

The nice thing about having so many choices for outfielders is that you can draft certain players to fill certain needs. As your roster starts to take shape on draft day, if you desire more power, then there are plenty of outfielders that can address that specific need. If your team is lacking speed, there are outfielders that you can target to rack up stolen bases. And if you were able to draft for both speed and power in previous rounds, then adding a couple outfielders that can hit for average will only help you in the long run.

That said, if you’re smart, you’ll pinpoint the outfielders that can do it all. Sure, they might not excel in any one area, but over the course of the season if you can land a guy that can spread out his production in home runs, RBIs, runs and average, it will do wonders for your team in the end. After all, balance is key in fantasy baseball and after you land your studs early on, you’re going to need to complete your roster with players that can produce in all areas.

With a huge pool of outfielders to choose from, there are plenty of players that will give you the balance you’ll need all season. We’ve picked out a few below (that you’ll find in both middle and late rounds), so take a look and keep an eye on them come draft day. And for the sake of not insulting your intelligence, we didn’t list any of the outfielders in our top 15 (see the rankings below). There’s no sense waxing poetically about Ryan Braun, Grady Sizemore and Matt Holliday when you already know what they can do.

Alex Rios, Toronto Blue Jays
Rios flashed power in 2007 and speed in 2008 and if he can put everything together this season, 2009 could be a very good year fantasy-wise for the Blue Jay right fielder. If Rios falls into your lap after the top 15 outfielders come of the board, you probably won’t be disappointed. He should close in on a .290 batting average, 20 home runs, 100 runs and 90 RBI, all while stealing 25 bases. When we talk about finding balance in outfielders, Rios is exactly what we’re talking about.

Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels
Vlad might not be the player he was a couple of years ago, but don’t be the one that passes on him because you’re worried about his age. He’ll still hit over .300 and chip in 25-plus home runs, 100-plus RBIs and 85-plus runs. He won’t steal any bases, but he doesn’t strike out much and he’ll likely finish with a slugging percentage around .530.

Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers
Ordonez is another player that you might pass up due to age, but don’t forget that he hits in the same lineup that features Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson and Gary Sheffield so he still has a ton of value fantasy-wise. Similar to Guerrero’s production, Mags will hit over .300, drive in over 100 runs and finish with 20-25 home runs if he can stay healthy. And much like Vlad, Ordonez won’t give you anything in the stolen base department but he’ll finish with a slugging percentage in the .520-range and score 80-plus runs.

Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies
If this guy can stay healthy, he’s going to be a hell of a fantasy player and could be in store for a solid season. Victorino lacks elite power, but he’ll still hit 10-plus dingers, score 95-plus runs and hit in the .280-range. He won’t knock in many runs, but he’ll make up for it by stealing 35-plus bases and add 7-plus triples.

Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox
If Dye comes close to what he did last year (.292-34-96-96), then you’ll be more than happy to add him as your second outfielder. Dye loves hitting at U.S. Cellular and while he won’t hit for average like Vlad or Mags will, he’ll produce seven to 10 more dingers. The only disadvantage of drafting him is that he obviously doesn’t have much upside. He is what he is at this point in his career, so don’t expect better than what he produced last year, which certainly isn’t bad by any means but there’s not much to get excited about either.

Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays
By this point, everyone knows the book on Wells; if he can stay healthy, he has the capability of being a top 20 pick, but you can draft him as a top 30 pick. If avoids the injury bug, he’ll close in on .285, hit 20-plus home runs and score 75-plus runs. He doesn’t offer much in the RBI category, but he’s always knocking on the door of a huge season and worth a look if other owners in your league avoid him like the plague on draft day.

J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox
This guy terrifies us, as well as he should terrify you. But there’s no doubt he can hit and in that lineup, Drew will have the opportunity to knock in close to 80 RBIs, score 80-plus runs and hit close to 20 dingers. He’ll also sniff .285 and chip in 30-plus doubles. The only problem, of course, is that he’s always a stubbed toe away from landing on the DL and he’s already complaining about his back. Be afraid…be very afraid. Still, there’s no doubt Drew offers a ton of value late in your draft.

Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees
There will probably be a point during your draft when you see Matsui’s name staring you in the face and you might be tempted to pass. Depending on what round it is and how your draft has shaken out to that point, Matsui could be a great low risk, high reward player. He’s coming off knee surgery, but he also will see plenty of time at DH this season with the Yankees, which hopefully will keep him healthier. If he does stay healthy throughout, there’s no reason he can’t hit .300 with 15-plus home runs and chip in 80 RBI and 80 runs.

Xavier Nady, New York Yankees
We’ll give you the bad news first; Nady plays in an awfully crowded outfield in New York and you have to be concerned about guys like Melky Cabrera stealing his at bats. But the good news is that he’s in a contract year and could flourish hitting in a stacked lineup. (Although A-Rod is set to miss up to 10 weeks so that certainly doesn’t help.) Nady will likely close in on .280, hit 20-25 home runs and score 70-plus runs. You could do a lot worse late in the draft.

Fred Lewis, San Francisco Giants
Lewis is a sleeper and could be a great value late in your draft following a breakout year of sorts in 2008. He’ll move into the third spot in the lineup sandwiched between Edgar Renteria and Benglie Molina, thus having the opportunity to score close to 90 runs while sniffing a .280 batting average. Unfortunately he probably won’t rack up a ton of RBIs, but he’ll more than make up for it with 20-25 stolen bases and he’ll even chip in 10-15 home runs and 10 triples. Not bad for a late round pick.

1. Grady Sizemore, CLE
2. Ryan Braun, MIL
3. Carlos Beltran, NYM
4. Carlos Quentin, CHW
5. Alfonso Soriano, CHC
6. Carlos Lee, HOU
7. Josh Hamilton, TEX
8. B.J. Upton, TB
9. Carl Crawford, TB
10. Matt Holliday, OAK
11. Ichiro Suzuki, SEA
12. Nick Markakis, OAK
13. Matt Kemp, LAD
14. Manny Ramirez, LAD
15. Jason Bay, BOS
16. Alex Rios, TOR
17. Shane Victorino, PHI
18. Nate McLouth, PIT
19. Vladimir Guerrero, LAA
20. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
21. Curtis Granderson, DET
22. Magglio Ordonez, DET
23. Adam Dunn, WAS
24. Jermaine Dye, CHW
25. Corey Hart, MIL
26. Bobby Abreu, LAA
27. Ryan Ludwick,
28. Jay Bruce, CIN
29. Vernon Wells, TOR
30. Raul Ibanez, PHI
31. Johnny Damon, NYY
32. Hunter Pence, HOU
33. Brad Hawpe, COL
34. Torii Hunter, LAA
35. Chris Young, ARI
36. Milton Bradley, CHC
37. Lastings Milledge, WAS
38. Andre Ethier, LAD
39. Pat Burrell, TB
40. Jayson Werth, PHI
41. Conor Jackson, ARI
42. Xavier Nady, NYY
43. Nelson Cruz, TEX
44. Justin Upton, ARI
45. Fred Lewis, SF
46. Mark DeRosa, CLE
47. J.D. Drew, BOS
48. Coco Crisp, KC
49. Rick Ankiel, STL
50. Adam Jones, BAL
51. Shin-Soo Choo, CLE
52. Carlos Gomez, MIN
53. Cameron Maybin, FLA
54. Hideki Matsui, NYY
55. Willy Taveras, CIN
56. Denard Span, MIN
57. Elijah Dukes, WAS
58. Adam Lind, TOR
59. Mike Cameron, MIL
60. Juan Pierre, LAD
61. Jason Kubel, MIN
62. Jack Cust, OAK
63. Randy Winn, SF
64. Jeremy Hermida, FLA
65. Felipe Lopez, ARI
66. Travis Snider, TOR
67. Mat LaPorta, CLE
68. Chase Headley, SD
69. Jose Guillen, KC
70. Michael Bourn, HOU
71. David DeJesus, KC
72. Gary Sheffield, DET
73. Ryan Spillborghs, COL
74. Ryan Church, NYM
75. Ty Wigginton, BAL
76. Aaron Rowand, SF
77. Brian Giles, SD
78. Eric Byrnes, ARI
79. Michael Cuddyer, MIN
80. Ken Griffey, SEA

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

If you’re a fantasy baseball or football owner and you don’t read Rotoworld every day (or, in my case, several times a day), you’re not only missing out, but you may very well be costing yourself a chance at a league title. As far as free and comprehensive fantasy advice goes, nobody does it better than Rotoworld. Their player updates pull from all sorts of local and national sources and are updated throughout the day, and their columnists offer up plenty of great insight, both during the season and leading up to draft day. They even have their own draft guide, although you’ve got to pay $15 for that.

Howard Megdal (who, as far as I can tell, is new to the Rotoworld staff this season) just posted a great article about the value of youth and health on draft day:

So when I draft, I want as much predictability as possible. Therefore, my two touchstones are getting as many players in their age peak (roughly 25-30), with an added focus on injury history. Such a strategy provides no guarantees—no strategy does—but puts me in the best position to consolidate my gains. And as a bonus—a healthy player of peak age, more likely than not, is going to be a player who has that surprise season you were hoping for from the rookie, anyway.

I’m always amazed by how many owners don’t pay attention to age or injury history during their drafts, especially in the early rounds. Every year, someone drafts a guy like AJ Burnett too early, and every year Burnett goes down with some kind of injury. Go ahead and take Lance Berkman in the second round — I’ll gladly wait another round or two and snag the younger Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder. Upside, upside, upside.

Megdal goes on to target some of the likely first-rounders that he’s avoiding this year:

Ian Kinsler is another top-12 player with red flags of the white bandage variety. For the third straight season, he showed that when healthy, he is an offensive force at a position, second base, with very few of them. But he played in just 121 games, this time due to a sports hernia, and his season-high through three seasons is 130. No reason he can’t help a fantasy team—but let someone else draft his injury history first.

Also consider dropping Jimmy Rollins, who played in 137 games last season and already has back issues in spring training, and Carl Crawford, who was limited to 109 games with a finger injury last year. Crawford in particular appears to be healthy this spring—but grab the guy who just put up 150-160 games in 2008. An extra 10-15 games out of your best player could be the difference in some leagues.

Instead of Kinsler, who averaged fewer than 124 games per season from 2006-2008, how about Brandon Phillips, who has averaged around 150 games per season? Phillips is 27, suggesting that his best year may come in 2009.

I’m pretty high on both Kinsler and Phillips, as I noted in my second base preview, but while Kinsler is younger (by one year) and may arguably have a little more upside, Phillips has the much healthier track record and can be snagged a little later than Kinsler, which likely makes him the better value of the two. When you consider the premium you’ll need to pay for Kinsler (a late first or early second rounder), Phillips becomes that much more intriguing.

Megdal wisely suggests not becoming a slave to this (or any) draft strategy, because remaining too loyal to a plan could close you out of any mid- to late-round bargains that may fall into your lap. But when it comes to debating the merits of Carlos Delgado vs. Adrian Gonzalez, AJ Burnett vs. Edinson Volquez, or Carlos Lee vs. Nick Markakis, you’d be wise to go with the younger, healthier guy.

Rumor has it that Abreu and Dunn were the Dodgers’ backup plan if they couldn’t work out a deal with Ramirez, although according to L.A. GM Ned Colletti, that has never been the case.

Ramirez stands alone among available sluggers now. Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu are off the market, Dunn gone to the Washington Nationals and Abreu to the Angels, two signings greeted with a shrug at Chavez Ravine.

“I don’t expect them to impact us,” Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti said.

It’s Manny or nothing for the Dodgers. They never said anything different. There appears to be Manny money in the budget, reserved for him, not intended to be spent otherwise.

I think everybody is going to need a hard drink after this situation is over. I don’t even know what to write anymore. This is like watching two chip leaders at a poker game and neither of them wants to put the other one in. Somebody (the Giants) should just walk up to the table and flip the whole damn thing over and end this charade.