This is how I know nobody has a clue about what will happen in the NFL:

Green Bay Packers 17, Dallas Cowboys 7.

Unless you’re a Packer slappy, you couldn’t possibly have expected that outcome today; there’s just no way. Dallas had won four in a row, was coming off an impressive road win at Philadelphia and was playing with a ton of confidence. Green Bay, on the other hand, had not beaten a team with a winning record all season and had lost to the previously winless Buccaneers last week in one of the ugliest losses for any team this season.

Granted, some could say that this was a letdown game for the Cowboys after beating the Eagles last week, but it’s not like the Packers are the Browns or Rams; Dallas shouldn’t have had any problem getting up for this game today.

Nevertheless, the Packers’ defense played one hell of a game by completely shutting down a Dallas offense that had been firing on all cylinders entering the game. Green Bay forced three turnovers, held the Cowboys to only 61 rushing yards and sacked Tony Romo five times. It was a dominating effort by Dom Capers’ defense tonight that was embarrassed last week in Tampa. The Packers’ O-line still tried their best to get Aaron Rodgers killed, but Green Bay will certainly take a win, especially after the team held a players-only meeting earlier this week in an effort to try and clear the air.

Since the Eagles also lost today, this won’t set the Cowboys back in the standings but it is alarming that Green Bay was able to shut down Dallas’ offense so easily. I mean, this was the same Packers defense that gave up 38 points last week to the Buccaneers, who were starting a rookie quarterback in Josh Freeman.

Maybe this was just an off day for Wade Phillips’ team. They better hope so anyway.

Once Brett Favre signed with the Vikings and the Bears acquired Jay Cutler this offseason, pundits couldn’t help but to gush over how good the NFC North Division would be.

But now that nine weeks are in the books, it’s clear that the NFC North is the most overrated division in football.

With Favre under center, the Vikings have been as good as advertised this season. But the Bears were crushed 41-21 at home by the Cardinals on Sunday and the Packers lost 38-28 to the freaking winless Buccaneers and rookie quarterback Josh Freeman, who was making his first career start.

Turnovers killed Green Bay today in Tampa. The Packers managed to rack up 404 yards of total offense, 170 yards on the ground (Ryan Grant was effective) and also held the Bucs to just 81 rushing yards of their own. But Aaron Rodgers was intercepted three times, including once with time ticking down in the fourth to seal Green Bay’s fate. (Tanard Jackson returned the interception 35 yards for a touchdown to put Tampa Bay up for good at 38-28.)

Somehow, the Packers allowed Freeman to throw three touchdown passes without much threat of a running game. Freeman was far from perfect as he threw an interception, struggled with his accuracy and fumbled a snap (which was recovered by Tampa). But he was solid in the second half, showed nice poise for being a rookie and bought extra time for himself while scrambling out of trouble. Head coach Raheem Morris said his rookie signal caller was ready to play coming into the game and it showed.

The Packers still haven’t beaten a team with a winning record this season. I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong when I said in the preseason that they were Super Bowl contenders. They haven’t been able to overcome the injuries on the offensive line and the defense has been inconsistent. Rodgers wasn’t great today, but for the most part he has kept his team in games on his own by buying himself extra time to find open receivers.

Green Bay’s schedule is tougher in the second half than it was in the first. This is an 8-8 team at best and so are the Bears (if that). That’s not exactly what most pundits had in mind when they were talking up the NFC North in preseason.

According to a report by ESPN.com, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is hurting after Green Bay’s loss to the Vikings on Sunday, but expects to play this week with a sprain on one foot and a sprained toe on the other.

Packers coach Mike McCarthy says Rodgers could miss time in practice this week but is expected to play Sunday at Tampa Bay without hurting his mobility.

It’s been a long year for Rodgers. He has been sacked 31 times overall — worst in the NFL — including six by Minnesota on Sunday.
Rodgers was limping after the game but said he expected to be OK after a few days.

I’ve gained a lot of respect for Rodgers this season. The kid has been running for his life all year because of the Packers’ O-line issues and yet he’s never complained. And despite Jared Allen treating him like a rag doll, Rodgers has never once thrown one of his teammates under the bus.

I know he hasn’t proven that he can be a consistent winner, but I like Rodgers and think he could be a damn good player in the NFL.

For the second consecutive week, the Packers whipped a bad opponent as they routed the Browns 31-3 on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes in the win, including a 45-yarder to Spencer Havner, a 71-yarder to Donald Driver and a 5-yarder to James Jones.

But the story for the Packers was their running game, as they totaled 202 yards on the ground. Ryan Grant rushed for 148 yards on 27 carries and Brandon Jackson chipped in 31 rushing yards on nine carries. The Packers’ O-line is still incredibly banged up and vulnerable, but if they can run the ball every week as well as they did today, then they won’t have to worry about teams pinning their ears back to get after Rodgers.

The Packers are starting to build confidence. Granted, they’re building confidence against the trash of the NFL, but they’re building confidence nonetheless. They still haven’t beaten a team with a winning record (they beat the Bears, but that was in the opener), but they’re crushing bad teams.

And make no mistake about it – the Browns are a bad football team. In fact, they’re one of the most offensively inept teams I’ve ever wasted time watching. Nobody kills a potential scoring drive like Derek Anderson and unless Josh Cribbs scores on a kick return or in the Wildcat, the Browns don’t score period.

Eric Mangini has a lot of work to do to getting this Cleveland team to respectable. I know at times the Browns have been competitive this season, but they were a total disaster today.

In the summer of 2008, the Green Bay Packers ended the Brett Favre era by trading him to the New York Jets. While some would argue that Favre ended the era himself by hemming and hawing about his retirement, the Packers ultimately made the decision to move on and hand the keys over to Aaron Rodgers.

With Monday night’s game only a few days away, it begs the question – are the Packers better off with Rodgers under center? To discuss this issue, I’m going to enlist the help of our lead NFL writer, Anthony Stalter.

JP: Anthony, if you’re an NFL GM and you think you have a Super Bowl caliber team, who would you rather have at quarterback this year – Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers?

AS: Injuries are a major concern with Favre compared to Rodgers, who is younger and can better withstand the rigors of a full season. I realize Favre has never missed a start in his career, but that doesn’t mean he’s always been healthy. Last year he played through biceps injury during the final month and it sunk the Jets’ season. I worry that Favre would suffer some kind of alignment during the season that would affect his play. On the other hand, while I wouldn’t worry about Rodgers’ durability, I know that Favre is a natural winner. I know that when the chips are down, he’s usually going to make a play to win the ball game and while Rodgers has shown flashes of that in his young career, he hasn’t proven that he can win on a consistent basis yet.

JP: You know I’m kind of a numbers guy, and it’s tough to argue with Rodgers’ statistical performance thus far. In 19 starts, Rodgers has averaged 250 passing yards and 1.68 pass TD per game (versus 0.68 INT per game). Conversely, in 274 starts, Favre is averaging 240 passing yards, 1.71 TD and 1.13 INT per game. Rodgers meets or beats Favre in every category and isn’t nearly as inclined to turn the ball over. Rodgers has already made a number of great plays in tough spots in his young career, but last season the Packer defense gave up several game-winning drives to the opposition. This year, Rodgers beat the Bears by hooking up with Greg Jennings for a perfectly thrown 50-yard touchdown (when the Packers were down two and facing a third-and-1 with just 1:18 to play). Favre is known for being clutch, but I think part of that comes from his longevity. When you’re around that long, you’re bound to have some memorable comebacks. Last week’s (amazing) pass to Greg Lewis was the first time that he threw for a game-winning TD with 0:10 or less remaining in the game.

For reasons you mentioned, if I’m heading into a season, I’d take Rodgers because he’s as talented and has a much better chance of staying healthy for a full season. But if I’m heading into the Super Bowl next week and I have my pick of the two, I’d probably go with Favre because he’s been there before and I know he won’t be overwhelmed by the moment.

AS: Right, it all depends on the situation. If we’re talking about the Super Bowl or even a playoff game, I’m going to want Favre (even despite his high number of postseason INTs) because he’s been there before. I know I can count on him not to be overwhelmed or succumb to the pressure and the magnitude of the moment. Rodgers simply doesn’t have enough experience at this point in his career to trust putting under center in a one-and-done game. We just don’t know how he would react because he’s never been there before. Brett has won a Super Bowl and has been to the postseason countless times before. There’s just no substitute for experience.

That said, if we’re at the beginning of the season and I have my choice, I’m going to take Rodgers. He’s more durable than Favre, has all the physical tools to succeed and should only progress as a passer with more experience. Once he learns how to adjust to how defenses are trying to stop him, he’s going to be a very good quarterback in this league for a long time. He has all the potential to succeed.

That’s our opinion…what’s yours? Feel free to vote in our poll to the right.

Along with the odds and over/under totals, here’s a look at some of the marquee matchups for Week 4 in the NFL.

Jets (3-0) at Saints (3-0), 4:05PM ET
Perhaps the most anticipated match up on this week’s schedule (outside of the Monday night game, that is) will be played at the Superdome when the 3-0 Saints host the 3-0 Jets. Both teams are playing with tons of confidence on both sides of the ball and this game will be a great test for each team. How will Drew Brees and the explosive New Orleans offense handle Rex Ryan’s aggressive defense? Can Mark Sanchez and the Jets offense keep pace with Brees and company if they start lighting on the scoreboard? This should be a great game from start to finish.
Odds: Saints –7.

Ravens (3-0) at Patriots (2-1), 1:00PM ET
Although the Patriots soundly beat the Falcons last week, they still have some issues to resolve. Tom Brady didn’t play particularly well (especially in the first half), but he also didn’t face much of a pass rush. Baltimore won’t make the same mistake Atlanta did and allow Brady to sit back in the pocket and pick them apart underneath. The Ravens also have a better run defense than the Falcons do, so the Pats shouldn’t be able to control this game on the ground like they were able to do last week. Baltimore has its issues as well, particularly in the secondary. If Brady is on, he could have some success moving the ball against the Ravens’ pass defense. It’ll be interesting to see how New England’s defense handles Joe Flacco and a running game that already looks like it’s in midseason form.
Odds: Patriots –2.

Chargers (2-1) at Steelers (1-2), 8:20PM ET
Is this a must win for the defending champs? The lack of a running game is killing the Steelers right now because they can’t nurse leads late in games. If Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall can’t get going against a beat up San Diego front seven, then the onus will once again be on Ben Roethlisberger and the defense to win the game for Pittsburgh. The Chargers know what it’s like to play in Pittsburgh since they made the trip twice last year, which resulted in a 11-10 regular season defeat and a 35-24 loss in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Consistency has been an issue for Philip Rivers and company, but the Steelers are primed for the taking. Will Pittsburgh fall to 1-3 or can it right the ship this Sunday night?
Odds: Steelers -6.

Packers (2-1) at Vikings (3-0), Monday, 8:30PM ET
Did the schedule makers nail this one or what? Brett Favre will host his former team a week after producing some of the late game heroics that made him an icon in Green Bay. The football world is abuzz with Favre’s game-winning touchdown pass to Greg Lewis last Sunday, which helped the Vikings edge the 49ers and remain undefeated. The Green Bay offensive line must do a better job protecting Aaron Rodgers, especially with Jared Allen ready to provide consistent pressure for a great Minnesota defensive line. Rodgers will have to make plenty of plays in the passing game, since Ryan Grant isn’t likely to find much running room against the Williams Wall. Can Rodgers outshine his predecessor or will Favre teach the young quarterback a thing or two about playing in primetime?
Odds: Vikings –3.5.

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“We’ve got to go back and look at it. I think we’re still going to be a good football team, there’s no need to panic.” – Bears QB Jay Cutler following Chicago’s 21-15 loss to the Packers on Sunday night.

Cutler’s right – there is no need to panic. For all we know, Chicago will run the table to finish 15-1 and win the Super Bowl this season.

But even still, Cutler needed to show more than he did on Sunday night in Green Bay. Bad games are going to happen, but his four-interception night was trumped by only his poor attitude during and after the game. His receivers and his pass protection certainly didn’t provide him any help (a fact I’m sure isn’t lost on Cutler, who doesn’t mind dishing out blame), but Chicago’s defense gift-wrapped a win for this team and he did everything in his power to ensure that Green Bay would walk away with a victory.

Cutler played like a rookie tonight. On multiple occasions, he threw against his body and into coverage. He had a screen pass intercepted by Johnny Jolly because he didn’t show enough awareness to see that the 325-pound defensive tackle had stayed home on the play. On Tramon Williams’ 62-yard interception, Cutler flat out threw the ball in the direction of a receiver, but clearly had no idea where the pass was going.

If I didn’t know better, I would have sworn that Cutler had money on Green Bay tonight. And yet after the game what does he say?

“There’s no need to panic.”

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Last month we started looking at last season’s statistics for position players in fantasy football land, and today we’ll look at a position many often overlook. That’s fantasy defenses, which can sometimes put up just enough points to earn your team a victory once in a while. It’s always smart to try and grab one of the top units, although as we’ve seen before, things change, sometimes drastically, from year to year with fantasy D’s. Me? I like to grab my defense before my kicker. This list is based on point totals from one of my leagues, so keep in mind that stats vary from year to year.

1. Baltimore Ravens—The Ravens’ defense is perennially awesome, and we’ll find out for sure how much of that was due to former coordinator Rex Ryan, who is now the head honcho for the Jets. Ryan took plenty of players with him too, like LB Bart Scott and S Jim Leonhard, but the Ravens still have Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs. Reed just keeps getting better every year, and his sick nose for the ball is one reason the Ravens had a league high 26 picks. They will keep scoring low as always, but their 34 sacks last season isn’t much to get excited about. Bottom line: The Ravens won’t be a number one this year, but are still top 10.

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Last week we looked at the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks from 2008 with a look toward 2009. This week, it’s about those who catch passes. Wide receivers have become almost as valuable as running backs, so it’s important not to overlook that when you’re preparing for your fantasy draft. And you are preparing, right? Or will you cram on Labor Day weekend? If you’re like me, you’re reading this stuff now because these long months without football suck. So, about those receivers….and keep in mind this Top 10 is based on scoring from one of my own fantasy leagues, and stats may differ from league to league:

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals—There should be no question remaining as to who has the best hands in football. In fact, I’ll just say it — that Larry Fitzgerald is the best receiver in football, and one of the best since the days of (dare I say it) Jerry Rice, or Lynn Swann. Yeah, he’s that good, and he’s just getting started. In ’08, Fitzgerald had 96 catches for 1431 yards and 12 touchdowns….and that’s with Kurt Warner having two other legitimate targets in Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston.

2. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions—This poor bastard put up huge numbers last year for an 0-16 team—78 receptions for 1331 yards and 12 scores. It’s difficult to draft anyone on the Lions, though.

3. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans—This guy is just a beast. I mean, a freaking beast. Johnson had SIX games of over 130 receiving yards, and wound up with 115 catches for 1575 yards and 8 TDs…all usually with two guys covering him. Like I said, a beast. Now what would he do with a real QB?

4. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals—Q wants the ball, and he may not get it in Arizona this season. But his numbers and skills have every other GM salivating. Last year, despite missing four games with injuries, Boldin caught 89 passes for 1038 yards and 11 scores. He even rushed 9 times for 67 yards.

5. Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers—Jennings has been on the verge of fantasy superstardom for a few years now, and I think the next two seasons may be peak years for him — especially with Aaron Rodgers coming into his own and Donald Driver losing a step or two. His 2008 numbers? 80 catches for 1292 yards and 8 touchdowns. This year, I’m saying 100-1500-12.

6. Randy Moss, New England Patriots—The fact that Moss still had a 1000-yard season catching passes from the yet-unproven Matt Cassel says a lot about Moss. Dude is a sick receiver. He had just four 100-yard games, but was consistent over the season with 69 receptions for 1008 yards and 11 TDs. He gets his boy Brady back in 2009, so look for 2007-ish numbers again.

7. Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys—He had one game over 200 yards, one more over 100, and every other game below 100. Owens managed 1052 yards on 69 catches with 10 scores, but by his standards the season was a bust. In Buffalo, I can’t imagine his numbers will be much better.

8. Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints—Marques Colston was never quite right after coming back from an injury, but Drew Brees kept throwing the ball to this guy, to the tune of 79 catches for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns—with three 100-yard games.

9. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers—He was suspended for the first two games in 2008, but still racked up 1421 yards on 78 catches with 6 scores…and a whopping eight 100-yard games. Steve Smith is just money, and he should be a Top 5 receiver in every fantasy league.

10. Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Bucs—Bryant had his best season as a pro last year after missing the entire 2007 campaign, catching 83 passes for 1248 yards and 7 TDs…and he gets bonus points for doing it with the Tampa Bay Bucs!