The NFL delivered another wild playoff game last night, as the Cardinals salvaged an overtime win after blowing it in regulation.
I’m a huge fan of Bruce Arians as a had coach, but some of his aggressive calls on offense and defense late in the game almost blew up in his face. On their past possession in regulation, the Cards had an opportunity to run out a good chunk of the remaining clock by running the ball, but he he had Carson Palmer try a difficult pass up the sideline to Larry Fitzgerald in an attempt to seal the game, but that incompletion gave Aaron Rodgers enough time to launch the game-tying Hail Mary. On that incredible play, Arians chose to go with a blitz as opposed to stacking defenders in the end zone, and that cost him as well.
In overtime, Palmer redeemed himself after some shaky play in regulation with an incredible throw across his body to Fitzgerald after scrambling away from pressure, and Fitzgerald rumbled all the way to the 5 yard line to set up the game-winning score.
This is just one of the many wild playoff games the NFL has produced this season and in recent years. The league has some issues, including the overall quality of play during the regular season, but many these playoff games have been incredible.
Chiefs vs. Colts, 4:35PM ET
The Colts hammered the Chiefs 23-7 in Indianapolis in Week 16 but expect a different outcome today. Kansas City wasn’t prepared for the hurry up that Pep Hamilton threw at Bob Sutton’s defense but with more time to prepare, the Chiefs should adjust. Injuries could impact this game from Kansas City’s side of things, as Tamba Hali is questionable and Eric Fisher has been ruled out for the contest. But Fisher the Chiefs expect Hali to play and Fisher wasn’t performing well before suffering the injury so his loss shouldn’t play a significant role in today’s outcome. The Colts aren’t a very good first half team but they’ve done well playing from behind with Andrew Luck under center. Unfortunately that plays into Kansas City’s hands. Look for the Chiefs to build a lead and then protect it with a combination of Jamaal Charles and their pass rush. FREE PICK: Chiefs -2.5
Saints vs. Eagles, 8:10PM ET
The Eagles have only beaten one playoff team this year and that came in Week 10 against an Aaron Rodgers-less Packers squad. But you’re naïve if you believe that Philly’s success this year is somehow marginalized by its schedule. Look at the NFL this year – half the league is garbage, which contributed to the Eagles’ “soft schedule.” Regardless, the Saints are a completely different team on the road than it is playing on the fast track of the Superdome. Drew Brees can talk about the Saints’ road record since 2009 all he wants but the fact remains that he’s a less accurate quarterback, Sean Payton is a more conservative play-caller and Rob Ryan’s defense isn’t as potent. Look for the red-hot Eagles to advance to the next round with a victory. FREE PICK: Eagles -3
Chargers vs. Bengals, 1:05PM ET
The side is difficult to handicap for this matchup because nobody knows which Andy Dalton will show up. He’s as likely to throw for four touchdowns and 350 yards as he is to turn the ball over four times and keep his opponent in the game nearly single-handedly. Thus, the true value of this matchup may be in the total. The over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Cincinnati and 7-2-2 in the last 11 meetings overall. The over is also 4-0 in the Bengals’ last four games overall, 5-0 in their last five home games and 4-1 in their last five games versus AFC opponents. FREE PICK: OVER 45.5
49ers vs. Packers, 4:40PM ET
Everything about this matchup screams 49ers, at least on paper. They have the significantly better defense, they’re built to win on the road thanks to their running game, and they’ve owned the Packers in the recent past. But this Green Bay team is eirly similar to the one that won the Super Bowl in 2010. That year, the Packers suffered key injuries throughout the season and barely made the postseason before riding a red-hot Aaron Rodgers to the title game versus Pittsburgh. Rodgers looked rusty last week versus the Bears but his second-half magic makes it hard to bet against him at home tomorrow night. If this game turns into a shootout, I like Rodgers over Colin Kaepernick, who has gotten a free pass for his inconsistent play this season after leading the Niners to the Super Bowl last season and playing with Michael Crabtree for most of this season. FREE PICK: PACKERS +3
Saints vs. Panthers, 1:00PM ET
After the Seahawks thrashed the Saints on “Monday Night Football” a few weeks back, Drew Brees reminded reporters that New Orleans has the best road record of any team in the NFL since 2009. While that may be, there’s no denying that the Saints are a much different team on the road this year than at home. Part that is because the Saints are seemingly unbeatable inside the Superdome. But Sean Payton is also more conservative with his play-calling on the road, Brees is less accurate, and Rob Ryan’s defense is softer versus the run. The Panthers should adjust to what they the Saints did to them in Week 14 when these two teams met in New Orleans (a walk away win for the Saints). I expect them to tighten up their red zone coverage and not allow Jimmy Graham to get a free release up the seam and torch them for a second time. The Saints are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games in Carolina and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall versus the Panthers. FREE PICK: PANTHERS -3
Cowboys vs. Redskins, 1:00PM ET
Kirk Cousins was outstanding in the first half last Sunday in Atlanta and nearly helped Washington overcome seven turnovers to beat the hapless Falcons. He may have just as much success on Sunday versus a Dallas defense that ranks dead last in yards allowed this season, but this isn’t the game the Cowboys will choke away. (That’ll come next weekend when they host the Eagles for what will amount to the NFC East Division title game, a la Week 17 last season.) Regardless of who is under center, the Redskins remain a mess defensively and they’re just 2-9 against the number in their last 11 games versus NFC opponents. They’re also 0-4 ATS in their last four divisional games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Cowboys should get it done on Sunday. FREE PICK: COWBOYS -2.5
Steelers vs. Packers, 4:25PM ET
The Packers have won two straight games after out-playing their opponents in the second half. They trailed by double-digits at home to the Falcons two weeks ago and by 23 points at half versus the Cowboys in Dallas last Sunday but still managed to win. At some point they’re not going to be able to dig themselves out if they continue their inconsistent play on offense and shoddy play on defense. Green Bay is just 1-6 against the spread in its last seven games overall, 0-4 ATS in its last four home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a losing record. On the other side, the Steelers are 5-1 against the number in their last six games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. With Aaron Rodgers sidelined for another week with an injured collarbone, look for Pittsburgh to pull off the minor upset. FREE PICK: STEELERS +2.5
Bears vs. Eagles, 8:30PM ET
The total is set high in this one but neither of these teams were interested in playing defense last week. The Bears are going to have loads of trouble slowing down LeSean McCoy on Sunday night and after getting torched by Matt Cassel last week, the Eagles should struggle trying to defend Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. The over is 4-1 in the Bears’ last five games overall, 11-3 in their last 14 road games and 9-2 in the Eagles’ last 11 games following an ATS loss. FREE PICK: OVER 55.5
The Kansas City Chiefs had the top pick in the latest NFL draft, and now they’re sitting at 7-0 with everyone calling Andy Reid a genius. But are they really that good, and does this make them a good bet in Vegas?
Andy Reid deserves a ton of credit for turning around this team. Everything revolves around the defense, where the Chiefs already had a lot of talent. They play very aggressive defense and they’v been causing a ton of turnovers. With the defense being the core, Reid went out and got Alex Smith to fit into his natural role as a game manager. The Chiefs love to run the ball, and then they don’t ask Smith to take any chances. This conservative approach has been critical to their success so far this season.
Still, is this sustainable? With an excellent defense they of course will be a contender all season long. But will they keep getting the critical turnovers? There’s always some luck associated with that. The Chiefs have had the good fortune of playing some terrible football teams. Also, they’ve faced a string of backup quarterbacks in Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and this week they get Jason Campbell. Later this year reality may set in as they will face Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning twice, Philip Rivers twice and RG3.
Then we have the issue of the offense. How long can they ride Alex Smith and his low yards per attempt numbers?
If you look at the NFL lines this week you’ll see the Chiefs as a 7.5 favorite over the Cleveland Browns. This game is interesting for a number of reasons. With Campbell starting, it’s really impossible to predict what we’ll see with the Cleveland offense. If he’s rusty or plays like he did last year, the Chiefs will have another win to celebrate. But if he can be a competent quarterback like the guy who was 4-2 in 2011 with the Raiders before getting hurt, then the Browns be come a formidable opponent.
The Browns do have an aggressive defense, and DC Ray Horton has promised to let them get more aggressive this week now that they’re healthy. And while he didn’t say it, Alex Smith is no Aaron Rodgers. The Browns will likely stack the box and blitz often in order to stuff the running game and dare Smith to throw passes downfield.
So be careful of this game. With the large spread this one seems like a coin flip that will turn on the unpredictable play of Jason Campbell. And if you’re in a n elimination pool, then this is a classic trap game. It should be a fun one to watch.