In order to help get you ready for the MLB season, we’re doing division-by-division rankings with quick overviews on how each club could fair in 2010. Next to each team, you’ll also find a corresponding number written in parenthesis, which indicates where we believe that club falls in a league-wide power ranking. Be sure to check back throughout the next two weeks leading up to the season, as we will be updating our content daily. Enjoy.

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Next up is the NL Central.

1. St. Louis Cardinals (4)
Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Matt Holliday could help the Cardinals win this division sauced out of their minds on a nightly basis. That said, would anyone really be surprised if Carpenter’s arm falls off and the starting pitching (which is among the best in the league) suffers? It’s happened before, so if you answered “yes” to the proposed question then you sir or madam, have not been paying attention. Still, the addition of Brad Penny (who pitched well in the second half last year) will strengthen the club’s starting pitching and Kyle Lohse is a fine middle of the rotation guy. Pujols and Holliday will ignite the offense again, although Colby Rasmus might be the key to whether or not this team makes a serious World Series run. Skip Schumaker is a solid table setter, but how Rasmus fairs hitting in front of Pujols and Holliday could be the difference between the Cards winning the NL Central again and playing for a championship. David Freese better produce too or else the club will regret not acquiring a veteran third baseman in the offseason. All in all, the Cardinals are the best the NL Central has to offer and should make another postseason appearance this season. But how far they go beyond that depends on whether or not Carpenter and Wainwright can continue their magic and if Pujols and Holliday receive help from the rest of the lineup.

2. Chicago Cubs (13)
Some pundits expect the Reds to leapfrog the Cubs in the division this year, but I believe Chicago is more inclined to rebound than sink further into baseball misery (I say misery because no team wants to be outplayed by the Reds…no offense, Pittsburgh – keep your heads up). Keep in mind that this club is only two years removed from winning 97 games and the roster hasn’t seen that much turnover. Last year, the Cubs were hit extremely hard with injuries (Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano), unexpected poor play (Geovany Soto), expected poor play (Kosuke Fukudome) and clubhouse-killing diseases (Milton Bradley). I’m not making excuses for the Cubs because they did play poorly, but they still have enough talent to win the NL Wild Card and maybe even challenge the Cardinals in the division. Assuming everyone stays healthy, Ramirez, Soriano and Derrek Lee give the Cubs plenty of power and the starting pitching (Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster) is solid when healthy. If Carlos Marmol ever figures out how to exploit his talent, the bullpen would be in good shape as well. That said, along with staying healthy, this club needs role players like Fukudome, Mike Fontenot, Ryan Theriot and the newly acquired Marlon Byrd to produce. Chances are, a second place finish is the ceiling for the Cubs. But again, a Wild Card berth isn’t out of the question.

3. Milwaukee Brewers (17)
What happened to this team? It doesn’t seem that long ago that the Brewers had the right mix of players in place to make winning the NL Central a regular thing and then almost out of nowhere, they became non-factors. The biggest issue they had last year was their starting pitching, which was a disaster (5.37 ERA) outside of Yovani Gallardo (3.73). The club added Randy Wolf and Doug Davis over the offseason, which should help but Dave Bush (whose had a solid spring), Jeff Suppan (who could be released) and/or Manny Parra (the poster child for inconsistency) need to step up. The Brewers have the best 3-4 hitters in baseball in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, but they sacrificed offense this offseason when they traded J.J. Hardy and Mike Cameron. Much like the starting pitching, role players like Cory Hart, Carlos Gomez and Rickie Weeks need to improve their production for Milwaukee to have a chance this season. It would also be nice if left-hander Mat Gamel could make a contribution this year, but he’s likely to start the season on the DL and after that, Triple-A. The bottom line is that the Brewers certainly have enough talent to be dangerous, but there are just too many question marks surrounding this club. The starting pitching isn’t reliable and Braun and Fielder can’t win every game on their own.

4. Cincinnati Reds (21)
Like the Reds this year, do you? Think they’ll be better than what everyone expects? Think they’ll finally snap that pesky nine-season losing streak? Look, I don’t fault you for thinking that way. Edison Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo comprise a solid rotation (although who knows how long it will be before Volquez recovers from Tommy John surgery). This club also has a good bullpen, is one of the more athletic teams in baseball and headlined by Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, the offense has a nice core as well. So what’s the problem? The problem is that the Reds never win. People like to harp on the Mets failing to live up to expectations or on the Pirates and Royals for being horrid every summer but what about the Reds? They haven’t won in nine years and unless Votto and Phillips turn in MVP-caliber seasons, this club is destined to fall short of 82 victories again. Plus, while he’s beloved and usually gets the most of out of his players, manager Dusty Baker is brutal when it comes to taking care of his pitcher’s arms. I can’t prove it, but I’m almost positive that his life mission is to overuse as many pitchers as he can before he hangs up his wristbands. (Consider this your official warning, Aroldis Chapman.) I want to believe in this club – I really do. But given their history, Volquez’s health and Baker’s incompetence, I just can’t see the Reds finishing higher than third or fourth in the division.

5. Houston Astros (26)
I’d love to sit down with Houston’s front office and pick their brains about the direction of their club. Because it seems to me that the ‘Stros are in some kind of albatross of mediocrity and there’s zero hope on the horizon. The starting lineup is fine at the top, but there’s nothing of substance beyond that. If Michael Bourn, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence can’t produce, then nobody will expect Kazuo Matsui, Pedro Feliz and JR Towles to pick up the slack. It’s the same story in the starting rotation, where Wandy Rodriguez and Roy Oswalt are the stars and have nothing resembling a supporting cast behind them. This team is the epitome of blah and will probably fade into the background once the season starts. The frustrating thing (at least for fans) is that the Astros have a good enough core to compete, but the surrounding pieces just won’t allow it. Plus, they have very little in the farm system, so they’re essentially stuck with what they have.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates (30)
I could do what most writers do and throw a bunch of one-liners into this preview and just rip the Pirates for being the sack of toilet water they are. (Sack of toilet water?) But really, what’s the point? Everyone knows that the Buc-o’s front office avoids winning at all costs and that the club is destined to lose for the 18th season in a row. There is some hope on the horizon in the form of prospects Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez and Tony Sanchez, but it’s going to be a few years. And by that time, the front office will probably recognize that those players have talent and ship them off before, God forbid, they have to give them a decent contract. Still, it’s hard not to love Andrew McCutchen’s ability and Garrett Jones could be a star in the making if he can build off his solid ’09 season. The Pirates’ strength is also in their starting pitching, as Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Ross Ohlendorf form a solid 1-2-3 punch at the top of the rotation. But other than that, well, insert punch line here.

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]]> http://www.scoresreport.com/2010/03/26/2010-mlb-preview-nl-central/feed/ 1 http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/06/23/mlb-trade-rumors-beltre-derosa-and-washburn/ http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/06/23/mlb-trade-rumors-beltre-derosa-and-washburn/#comments Tue, 23 Jun 2009 18:45:40 +0000 Anthony Stalter http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=20416

- According to SI.com, the Mariners have yet to receive any interest for third baseman Adrian Beltre, who Seattle would love to move because he’s in the last year of his $64 million contract.

- One name that continues to be involved almost daily on the rumor mill is Indians utility man Mark DeRosa. According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the Cardinals and Yankees have expressed interest in DeRosa, but neither are willing to give up young pitching like Cleveland covets.

- The Mets are rumored to be interested in DeRosa, Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson and Orioles one-bagger Aubrey Huff, but Newsday’s Ken Davidoff writes that the club shouldn’t make any stupid trades just to fill a spot while Carlos Beltran is on the DL.

- MLB.com reports that the Diamondbacks could become sellers soon and that pitchers Doug Davis and Jon Garland, as well as second baseman Felipe Lopez could all be on the trade block.

- The Phillies want to add an arm, but the pitchers they’re looking at (Erik Bedard, Jake Peavy, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and Jason Marquis) are either hurt or playing for contending teams.

- The Dodgers have interest in Seattle pitcher Jarrod Washburn according to MLB Fanhouse and Juan Pierre’s name has come up as a potential trade piece.

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Offseason Movement: The Reds signed a true leadoff hitter in Willy Taveras and added catcher Ramon Hernandez in a trade with the Orioles. The club also signed free agents Jacque Jones, Arthur Rhodes, Jonny Gomes and Daryle Ward.

Top Prospect: Yonder Alonso, 1B
Alonso is quickly becoming a polished hitter and has displayed a good combination of average and power. Thus far, he’s tore up the Hawaii Leagues, hitting .323 with three dingers in 93 at bats. If all goes well, he should spend this year in Double-A, work his way up through the minors and possibly get an opportunity to crack the big league roster in 2010.

The Big Question: Can Jay Bruce and Joey Votto have breakout seasons?
The Reds have one of the more promising young lineups in baseball, but Brandon Phillips isn’t a true cleanup hitter and the club would love it if either Bruce or Votto (or both) would have breakout seasons. The concern regarding Votto is that he might not get enough at bats this spring after playing for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic. But even if Bruce and Votto don’t go gangbusters this year, it’s clear that both have very bright futures and will hopefully be the core of the Reds’ lineup for years to come.

Outlook: A lot has to go right for Dusty Baker’s club to compete this season, but the Reds definitely have the makings of a nice young team. The addition of Willy Taveras should help the top of the lineup and if he and Jerry Hairston Jr. can get on, that only means more opportunities for Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce. Ramon Hernandez also gives Cincy more pop at the bottom of the order, although Edwin Encarnacion’s wrist injury has been a small concern this spring. The club hopes Edinson Volquez won’t take a step back after winning a surprising 17 games last year, because he makes a nice 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Aaron Harang. The key to the pitching staff will be getting decent production out of Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto, who threw a one-hitter in his first start last season before finishing 9-14. With youngsters Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Cueto and Homer Bailey, this will be a fun team to watch this year. But the bottom line is that the Reds need some of these young players to have breakout seasons, which is asking too much at this point.

Projection: 4th NL Central

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As someone who loyally subscribes to the “wait for pitching” strategy on draft day, I’m always on the lookout for value starters. Experience has shown me that there are plenty of nice starting pitching bargains in the middle and late rounds every year, and if I’m diligent enough, I can also add pitching via the waiver wire during the season. All of which allows me to load up on as much hitting as I can in the early rounds, understanding that the more offensive firepower I have on my roster, the easier it will be to trade for a top-line starter should I find myself in need of reinforcements for the stretch run.

Of course, that doesn’t mean I ignore pitching on draft day. Far from it. Those SP bargains I mentioned above are available each year, if you know what to look for. Sure, it’s nice to have a reliable horse like Johan Santana or Brandon Webb anchoring your pitching staff, but the cost of adding someone like that is usually a little too steep for my tastes. So instead, my goal is to take five to seven solid starters who can deliver quality ratios while racking up strikeouts. Ideally, I also look for guys who pitch for successful teams, hoping that will translate to wins for my team.

The guys I target tend to fall into one of four categories: Young Guns, Rebound Vets, Undervalued Arms and Late Steals. As I’ve admitted in previous posts, I’m a sucker for upside but that doesn’t mean I’ll fall for any promising youngster with a lively arm. I’m also a sucker for a good revival story so I’m always looking for veterans with a solid track record whose stock has fallen because of an off year, while guys in the undervalued category tend to fly under the radar despite their consistent production. Finally, I try to wrap up every draft with one or two late-round picks that could pay off big in the long run.

Below, I’ve listed several pitchers I’ve got my eye on in each of these four categories, using the Average Draft Position (ADP) from ESPN’s draft kit as a guide. I’ve included the ADP as well as the SP rank (SP13, for example) for each of the 16 starters below. These aren’t, of course, the only guys who would qualify in these categories, just the ones at the top of my list. If you’re thinking about stockpiling bats early in your draft, maybe they should be at the top of your list too.

Felix Hernandez, Mariners
ADP: 67.5, SP13
I was tempted to go with Francisco Liriano, another enticing youngster with loads of upside, in this slot but ultimately sided with King Felix’s healthier track record. While a seventh-round pick isn’t exactly chump change for a guy who’s never won more than 14 games in a single season (he went 9-11 last year) and whose hype has far outweighed his production to this point in his career, don’t forget Felix will be just 22 on Opening Day. In fact, he’s two years younger than Tim Lincecum, but he’s made 47 more starts than San Fran’s ace and he’s going five rounds later than Lincecum in most drafts. Clearly, Lincecum has been more productive to date but Felix arguably has just as much raw talent and, if he can lower his walk rate, he could become a top-five starter as early as this year. If and when this kid finally breaks out, you’ll want to be onboard.

Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
ADP: 101.3, SP20
Gallardo was one of the most popular preseason sleeper picks last year, and after a knee injury limited him to just four starts in ’08, many are again anticipating a breakout season for the 23 year old. Gallardo put up superb numbers in the minors and, if he can stay healthy, he looks like a future ace with excellent strikeout potential and a potent offense behind him. He’s being drafted as a top-25 pitcher so the hype is considerable, but if you can handle the risk, the reward could be huge.

Edinson Volquez, Reds
ADP: 123.4, SP27
Johnny Cueto, Reds
ADP: 221.6, SP71
I like both of Cincinnati’s young power arms, but considering their respective ADP’s, I’d rather own Cueto this year. That’s not meant as a slight to Volquez, who won 17 games last season with a 3.21 ERA and 206 strikeouts after likely going undrafted in most leagues. The talent is undeniable but it also will come at a premium on draft day, whereas Cueto largely flew under the radar after earning some early raves during his rookie campaign. The 9-14 record and 4.81 ERA pale in comparison to Volquez’s sterling numbers, but don’t overlook Cueto’s solid 158-68 K/BB ratio (compared to his teammate’s 206-93 mark). If Cueto can cut down on the 29 homers he coughed up last year, he’ll easily outperform his draft position.

Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks
ADP: 162.7, SP39
I’m generally leery about starters with injury concerns, but Scherzer’s talent is simply too tantalizing to ignore. The 24-year-old righty was shut down in January after experiencing some shoulder soreness but all reports indicate that he’ll be ready to step in as the D-Backs’ fifth starter when the season starts. Scherzer failed to win any of his seven starts last year but his 3.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 66 strikeouts in 56 combined innings between the rotation and bullpen point to his immense potential. His ADP may seem a little high considering his limited track record, but the back end of your draft is the perfect time to roll the dice on a young talent like Scherzer.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox
ADP: 76.9, SP16
I’ve never been the biggest Josh Beckett fan, primarily due to his sketchy injury history, but after following up his Cy Young 2007 campaign with a largely disappointing performance last season, Beckett may well be the biggest potential SP value in the first half of your draft. Granted, an eighth-round pick is nothing to sneeze at but, at just 28, Beckett could easily deliver second- or third-round stats if he avoids the injury bug. While some would classify that as a big “if,” don’t forget that Beckett logged 200-plus innings in his first two seasons with Boston. There’s some risk here to be sure, but also a golden opportunity to buy low on one of the game’s elite starters.

Justin Verlander, Tigers
ADP: 154.4, SP38
Where did that come from? The 26-year-old Verlander seemed primed to claim his spot among the top starters in all of baseball, but thanks to a drop in velocity and a bout of wildness, he instead sabotaged the title hopes of many fantasy owners with an 11-17 record and 4.84 ERA. Most concerning was that his strikeouts dropped by 20 (183 to 163) and his walks rose by 20 (67 to 87). But as with Beckett, this could be a prime chance to buy low on a young starter with a solid track record. Spring results have thus far been mixed and I’m certainly not suggesting you break the bank for Verlander, but as a fourth or even fifth starter, there’s a lot to like here.

Erik Bedard, Mariners
ADP 175.4, SP45
Of the four starters in this group, I’m the least confident about Bedard. He’s never crossed the 200-innings threshold, his K/BB ratio dipped from 3.88 to 1.95 last year, he has one complete game in 126 career starts, and he has a mediocre offense backing him up. Doesn’t sound like much of an endorsement, I know, but if the goal is to buy low and sell high, there’s never been a better time to invest in Bedard. There’s no guarantee that his should problems are behind him but he’s looked healthy so far this spring and, after signing a one-year deal with Seattle, he’s playing for his next contract. That’s music to any fantasy owner’s ears who hopes that an 18th-round investment can result in a repeat of Bedard’s 2007 performance (13-5, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 221 K).

Aaron Harang, Reds
ADP 176.2, SP46
Harang makes for an interesting story. After three consecutive 200-inning, sub-4.00 ERA seasons that yielded 43 wins and a 597-159 K/BB ratio, he entered the 2008 campaign as one of fantasy’s most underrated starters. But a forearm injury contributed to a lost season for the 30-year-old righty as his numbers fell across the board en route to a 17-loss campaign. All of which means Harang is more undervalued than ever. His weak spring numbers are a bit concerning and some say all the innings he threw from 2005-07 are finally catching up to him, but there was no indication of any sort of decline in 2007. After posting a 3.07 ERA in six September starts last year, I like Harang’s chances for a rebound.

Javier Vazquez, Braves
ADP: 149.5, SP35
Some (including former manager Ozzie Guillen) may argue that Vazquez is actually overrated, considering the 32-year-old right hander has posted an ERA above 4.40 in four of the last five seasons. It’s a valid criticism, but keep in mind that Vazquez also has averaged 197 strikeouts per year since 2005 and his WHIP is generally solid. He won’t anchor your staff, but a move to the National League and into a more pitcher-friendly home stadium should help Vazquez outperform his reasonable ADP.

Randy Johnson, Giants
ADP: 172.7, SP44
Speaking of moving to a better home park, Johnson should enjoy his new digs in San Fran after coughing up 16 of his 24 home runs at Arizona’s Chase Field in 2008. The lanky lefty’s ADP suggests that many owners didn’t notice just how effective Johnson was in his desert return, to the tune of 11 wins, 3.91 ERA, 1.24 and 173 strikeouts. He may be 45, but as his 2.41 second-half ERA suggests, the Big Unit clearly has plenty left in the tank.

Brett Myers, Phillies
ADP: 180.7, SP48
After getting shifted back to the rotation following the Brad Lidge acquisition, Myers was positively brutal in the first half last season, posting a 5.84 ERA through June that earned him a demotion to AAA. The 28 year old was much better upon his return, winning seven games to round out the season with an ERA of 3.06 and a WHIP of 1.17. The overall numbers (10-13, 4.55 ERA, 1.38 WHP) clearly are scaring owners who have forgotten that Myers was very good in 2005 and 2006 before the Phillies moved him into the closer’s role. He’s always been susceptible to the long ball, even during his best years as a starter, but when you’re looking to round out your rotation in the middle rounds or later, Myers’ track record and strikeout ability should plant him squarely on your radar.

Chris Young, Padres
ADP: 219.2, SP69
In the “What have you done for me lately?” world of fantasy baseball, Chris Young is getting very little respect. Granted, we’re not talking about a staff ace but once the surefire starters are off the board, a guy with Young’s ability and track record should be an appealing option. Unfortunately, that track record includes several stints on the DL, which may be the only reason the 6-10 righty hasn’t officially broken out yet. He’s been good for nearly a strikeout per inning over the last three years and his spacious home park only adds to his value. The injuries are a legitimate concern but if Young gives you 30-plus starts (which he did from 2005-07), you’ll have yourself a huge bargain.

John Smoltz, Red Sox
ADP: 220.2, SP70
The obvious caveat with Smoltz is that you’ll need to be prepared to wait if you decide to take a flier on him. Reports as of this writing say he won’t be ready to take the mound for the Red Sox until late-May or into June. So let’s say he returns around the All Star break and goes on to give you 100 innings. Would you take that from a pitcher with a 3.26 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his 13-year career? Yes, he’s 41 but he also was an extremely effective fantasy starter for the three years prior to last season’s shoulder injury. Draft Smoltz late, stash him on your DL for the first half of the season, and then smile as he solidifies your rotation down the stretch.

John Maine, Mets
ADP: 224.9, SP75
Maine plummeted from chic preseason pick to late-round afterthought thanks to his underwhelming performance last season. But here’s the thing: he wasn’t all that bad. He wasn’t all that good either, but that’s what makes him such an intriguing flier this year. After striking out 180 batters in 191 innings two years ago, he maintained a solid 7.84 K/9 ratio in 2008 despite battling a shoulder injury for much of the season. Fortunately, the injury wasn’t all that serious and Maine has been healthy (albeit a little rusty) so far this spring. As with most pitchers at this point of your draft, Maine won’t anchor your staff but, at just 27 years old and with serious strikeout potential, you won’t find many arms with as much upside in the 23rd round.

Kelvim Escobar, Angels
ADP: 260, SP97
Escobar just barely slides into the top 100 at his position, but he’s owned in just 1.8% of ESPN leagues. That will change if the talented 32 year old can stay healthy. Of course, that’s always been the kicker with Escobar, who’s logged more than 200 innings just once in his career, but his recovery from August shoulder surgery looks to be on track, with early estimates saying he could take the mound by May. His return won’t match Smoltz’s in terms of fantasy impact, but as a guy who won 18 games in 2007, hasn’t had an ERA above 3.93 since 2003, and is always good for a healthy number of strikeouts, he makes for an appealing DL stash to round out your draft.