This is it – the week NFL draft nuts have been waiting for. Soon enough, prospects will know what cities they’re headed to and draft mock experts everywhere will look like idiots when less than half of their predictions are correct despite spending hours of time researching the picks.

I say it every year – the NFL draft is a crapshoot in terms of trying to make predictions. Nobody knows how high prospects are rated on draft boards around the league except the teams themselves. So while it’s fun to project who will go where, nobody has a clue – not Mike Mayock, not Mel Kiper and certainly not Anthony Stalter. (Did I just refer to myself in the third person? What a joke.)

The following is my third and final mock of the first round. In my previous two mocks, I had some fun by predicting potential trades that could play out, but I won’t do it here. I’m playing this mock “straight up” because predicting trades in the first round is harder to do than predicting what kind of mood Billy Bob Thornton will be in when he sits down to give an interview. Zing!

Some of you will inevitably feel as though that I have teams reaching with their picks. That’s fine, but realize that reaches are going to happen come Saturday because they’re just a part of the draft. If you disagree with any of my picks, go ahead and let me hear about it in the comments section. After all, the NFL draft is a spectacle and it’s supposed to be fun for fans. Enjoy all the action on Saturday and good luck to your favorite team on draft weekend.

(Click here to see Mock Draft Version 1.0 and Mock Draft Version 2.0)

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I was watching one of the many Mel Kiper and Todd McShay arguments on ESPN the other day [video], and Kiper was arguing that if McShay has Matthew Stafford ranked so high (McShay currently has Stafford ranked #8), then he should almost be a no-brainer for the Detroit Lions, who have the #1 overall pick and need a quarterback. McShay isn’t convinced that he’s a so-called “franchise” quarterback, so he says he would go another direction. (For the record, at the time Kiper called McShay “crazy” for having Stafford that high, but now he has the QB ranked #3 on his big board. It’s clear that Kiper’s pure hatred for McShay is causing him to slowly lose his mind.)

Anyway, the debate piqued my interest and got me wondering – when it comes to the first round of the NFL Draft, is one position safer than another? For example, if the Lions have three holes to fill (they have more, but bear with me) – quarterback, linebacker and tackle – and they can’t decide amongst the three players, is one position a safer pick than the other two?

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- SPORTSBYBROOKS brings us the (good) news that ESPN couldn’t come to terms with Stephen A. Smith on a new contract, so he won’t be with the Worldwide Leader for much longer. Apparently, ESPN’s offer was “considerably lower” than Smith’s previous contracts.

- MOONDOG SPORTS has the story of Charles Barkley’s speech at the University of Memphis. Apparently, Sir Charles believes that the NBA should require two years at the college level before a player can make himself eligible for the draft. That’s what David Stern originally wanted, but he had to compromise with the player’s union. Personally, I think a player should be able to go into the draft straight out of high school, but if he goes to college, he has to go for two years. These one-and-dones are wreaking havoc on the college game.

- JORGE SAYS NO has a list of the worst free agent contracts in baseball from 2005 to 2009.

- PRO FOOTBALL TALK says that the Cardinals want a first and a third for Anquan Boldin. For a team on the cusp — Titans, Giants, and maybe the Vikings — I think that would be worth it, but Boldin is turning 29 this year and that might be too much to give up for anyone else.

- DEADSPIN tells us that top linebacker prospect Aaron Curry is defying the spoiled athlete stereotype by bringing a 12-year-old leukemia survivor to the NFL Draft. That’s just reason #43 that Curry should be the Lions’ #1 pick.

This is one of the coolest stories I have read in some time:

Curry wound up at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., on Monday. In a prearranged meeting set up by his agent and hospital officials, Curry told wide-eyed, 12-year-old Bryson Merriweather that he wanted a tour of the place. The boy had spent the better part of two years there undergoing five rounds of chemotherapy for leukemia, which is now in remission.

“We were acting like he was just taking me on a regular tour around the hospital,” Curry said. “Toward the end, we ended up outside tossing each other a football, and I just started talking about the draft.

“He said he had seen it, and I was telling him that I had been invited and if he would join me in this experience. So I said, ‘So come to New York with me and get drafted into the NFL.’”
So joining Curry’s mother, fiancee and siblings at his draft table on April 25 will be Bryson, the Madison, Ala., boy who is determined to play football again — and get more people to be bone marrow donors.

“I was showing him around and then he asked me,” Bryson said of Curry’s surprise offer. “And I’ve never been to New York before.”

While Curry has been fortunate not to have a friend or family member affected by cancer, he was drawn to Bryson’s story when he was directed to the St. Jude hospital through his agent, Andy Ross.

The article goes on to talk about young Bryson’s battle with cancer, so do yourself a favor and check it out.

There are plenty of athletes who do good things for their community and it gets overlooked. I think what Aaron Curry is doing for this young man is special and I’ll be rooting for him on Sundays, no matter what team drafts him.

There is no such thing as a “can’t-miss” prospect in the first round of an NFL draft. They just don’t exist. For as much as teams scout and prepare, it’s inevitable that some prospects just aren’t going to pan out, which means they hop the train to Bustville right out of the gates.

Before you check to make sure that you’ve taken the correct dosage of your medication today, I realize that the first line of this article directly contradicts the title. That’s because even though there is no such thing as “can’t-miss” prospect in the first round, this is the time of year to have a little fun by making some predictions.

Two weeks ago, I complied a ranking of the top 5 potential first round busts in this month’s draft. So I thought it was only appropriate that I construct another top 5 ranking, this time of players I deem to be “can’t-miss” prospects. These are first round prospects that I think are low-risk, high-reward players.

Fair warning, don’t flip out when you read names of prospects that are expected to go in the top 10. This isn’t a piece dedicated to first round steals – it’s one that centers around prospects that should have the least amount of risk involved and the highest success rate.

Just as I mentioned in my top 5 first round busts piece, I realize that one or two of these prospects might slip to the second round (see Alex Mack). But on average, most pundits would agree that all five of the players are first round talents.

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In my first attempt to project the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft, I predicted the Lions to take Georgia’s Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick, Alabama’s offensive tackle Andre Smith to fall out of the top 15 and I also drummed up a potential swap between the Browns and 49ers so that San Fran could land USC signal caller Mark Sanchez.

But to paraphrase that overactor Nicholas Cage in “The Rock”: Gee, kind of a lot has happened since then. Most notably the Bears sending two first round picks to the Broncos for quarterback Jay Cutler and the Giants’ release of receiver Plaxico Burress.

Here’s my second attempt at projecting the first round of this month’s draft. As always, feel free to criticize in the comments section, but remember that I’m a human – I have feelings, too, damn it. So be gentle.

(Click here to see Mock Draft Version 1.0)

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Mock 1.0 Projection: Stafford
Nothing in the past couple of weeks has changed my mind about Stafford eventually winding up in Detroit. GM Martin Mayhew reportedly wants to trade this selection because of the financial burden that is bestowed upon having the top overall pick, but other teams don’t want it for the same reason. In the end, Jason Smith (Baylor) and Eugene Monroe (Virginia) are both very good options here, but the Lions were reportedly very impressed with Stafford’s private workout and you know what? They simply need a quarterback.

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Lions’ GM Martin Mayhew says he’s open to trading the No. 1 overall pick in April’s NFL draft.

When asked specifically about Jay Cutler and if Mayhew would consider trading the top pick for the unhappy Broncos quarterback, he didn’t shoot down the idea.

“We’re open to all options with that pick,” Mayhew said during a break at the NFL Annual Meeting.

“Obviously, it has value to us, and if it has value to somebody else, then we can talk about that.”

On Sunday, Lions president Tom Lewand told Tom Kowalski of Booth Newspapers in Lansing, Mich., that the team was looking forward to discussions with “agents of players we’re interested in.” Speculation elsewhere has identified the Lions’ leading candidate as Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith.

Before Lion fans start doing back flips about the possibility of trading out of the No. 1 slot in hopes to acquire more draft picks and essentially get better value for their selections, trading out of the top spot isn’t like shopping for toilet paper. It’s just not that easy – especially when there isn’t an elite prospect that multiple teams are after. (I know Aaron Curry is a stud, but he’s still not a prospect that multiple teams are going to trip over in trying to trade for the No. 1 pick.)

The last time the No. 1 overall pick was successfully traded was in 2001 when the Chargers dealt the top selection to the Falcons for the 5th overall pick, a third round pick and a second round pick in 2002. But Atlanta wanted Michael Vick and didn’t know if he would slide to No. 5 if they waited. Guys like Curry, Matthew Stafford, Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe aren’t going to garner that kind of attention, so I would imagine that the Lions will still be drafting out of that slot come next month.

It would probably be good for me to do an intro to this piece, but I’m going to skip all the foreplay and just get right to the action. And let’s be honest – you probably wouldn’t have read the intro anyway.

Below is my first mock draft of the year. You can disagree all you want, but just make sure you go into detail in the comments section so I know you care. I hate those bastards that trash my work and don’t have the common courtesy to tell me how much of a moron I am in print…

Let’s mock!

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Jason Smith (Baylor), Eugene Monroe (Virginia) and Aaron Curry (Wake Forest) are all possibilities for new GM Martin Mayhew with this pick. But the offensive tackle and linebacker positions are deep in this year’s draft – the quarterback position is not. Mayhew can get his franchise quarterback in Stafford, select an offensive tackle at No. 20 and then fill the middle linebacker need in the second or third round. There, I just fixed the 0-16 Detroit Lions in less than 100 words.

2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
If Smith goes No. 1 to the Lions, then I fully expect the Rams to take Virginia offensive tackle Eugene Monroe. With the jettison of long-time veteran Orlando Pace this offseason, St. Louis needs to address their need at left tackle and they’ll do so with either Smith or Monroe depending on who’s available. If it’s Smith, then they land one of the most athletic offensive lineman in the draft.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
The Chiefs could really use a right tackle to pair with last year’s first round pick, Branden Albert, but Curry would be too good to pass up here. GM Scott Pioli put a premium on versatile defenders while he was in New England, and that’s exactly what Curry is. The Wake Forest product could play either outside or inside in a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme and is easily the best defensive prospect in this year’s draft.

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The Seahawks traded linebacker Julian Peterson to the Lions for defensive tackle Cory Redding and a fifth round pick according to FOX Sports.com.

The deal raises questions about Detroit’s draft-day plans. The Lions hold the top overall pick and Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry had been suggested as a candidate for that spot.

The Seahawks gave Peterson a $54 million, seven-year contract three years ago after their Super Bowl appearance in Detroit. Peterson became an expensive asset because linebacker Leroy Hill got $8.4 million guaranteed this year with a franchise tag and Lofa Tatupu signed a $42 million contract a year ago.

Peterson will team up with Ernie Sims and give the Lions a solid outside linebacker duo. They still need to find a middle linebacker, however, and now address the hole they’ve created on their defensive line after trading Redding.

As the article suggests, this move probably means that Curry won’t be the top pick. Unless there’s a sleeper candidate out there (B.J. Raji?), the Lions will probably choose between Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford and Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith.

- SPORTSbyBROOKS.com has the story of Colts’ defensive end Dwight Freeney, who had the opportunity to learn a little bit about gold-digging women.

- THE LOVE OF SPORTS ponders what would have happened if the Kentucky Wildcats had defended the in-bounds pass in their crushing Eastern Regional Finals loss to Duke in 1992.

- Deadspin discusses weird Japanese baseball curses.

- TONYBLOGS.NET writes that David Beckham plans to own a MLS team after his career ends. Hopefully this means that High Maintenance Spice will remain in the public eye for a long, long time.

- Calvin Pace (yes, that Calvin Pace) wonders aloud whether or not his linebacker brethren Aaron Curry should be the No. 1 overall pick.