…and the other two want the Bulldogs to win.

Who wins and why?

[Eamonn] Brennan: My burgeoning relationship (and by “burgeoning” I mean I saw a dog in the press room and thought he was a sweetheart, and definitely way cooler than Uga) with Blue II would say Butler. Ah, but the heart says one thing and the head says another. I think Duke wins, only because of its size. Matt Howard will get into foul trouble. It’s going to happen. Once it does, Duke should be able to control the glass easily, get buckets on the interior and do what it did to West Virginia on Saturday night even if the offense isn’t quite that crazily efficient. Butler is an incredible, legendary story, and you have to have a heart of stone to root against them. (Even if I was a Duke fan, I might be having a Rocky-Drago moment right now.) But I think Duke wins, anticlimactic though it may be.

[Pat] Forde: Butler wins 62-60 when Hayward pulls a Bobby Plump and hits the winning shot in the final seconds. Why? Because truth has been stranger than fiction this NCAA tournament.

[Andy] Katz: Duke wins because of the uncertainty of Howard, the ability to rebound better off the offensive glass and the likelihood that Duke can score more easily than Butler and in bunches, too. Duke has the tendency to go on runs that stretch the game more than Butler does. That’s what my mind says, but my heart wants to see an iconic story receive a winning conclusion of a Butler Bulldogs team that refused to lose in 2010.

[Dana] O’Neil: I think Butler pulls the single greatest stunner in NCAA tournament history. The Bulldogs’ quick hands will make it hard for Duke to set up in its half-court offense, and Butler’s savvy defense won’t allow the Blue Devils to get any easy shots. I know how well Duke shot the ball against West Virginia, but that’s more exception than rule. This isn’t ordinarily a great shooting team, and I suspect the Devils won’t be able to match that offensive firepower. Mix in the talent of Gordon Hayward, whom I suspect will be guarded by Kyle Singler, and I see Butler marching the five miles down the street with trophy in hand.

[Mark] Schlabach: I’m probably guessing more with my heart than my mind, but I think Butler finds a way to win a close game. The Blue Devils won’t shoot the ball as well as they did in their rout of West Virginia in the national semifinals. The Bulldogs won’t allow them to have as many open looks on the perimeter, and guards Ronald Nored and Willie Veasley will take away two-thirds of Duke’s three-headed monster. Gordon Hayward will hit big shots down the stretch, and Butler will march the trophy from Lucas Oil Stadium to its campus in north Indianapolis.

It seems like pundits can be broken up into two camps: 1) those that pick Duke to win, but are admittedly rooting for Butler, and 2) those that actually believe the Bulldogs are going to pull the upset.

This is going to be a strange segue, but I’ve been reading Dan Brown’s book, The Lost Symbol, and its all about Noetic theory, which (among other things) studies the effect that the human mind can have on the physical world. What am I getting at? Well, if virtually everyone that’s watching the game tonight wants Butler to win, will it influence the outcome? If it were ever to have an effect, it seems like tonight would be the night — has there ever been a single game where such a vast majority of the viewing public will be rooting for one side to win?

Did I just blow your mind?

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Immediately after the games on Saturday, I wrote the following about tonight’s matchup between Duke and Butler:

Monday night’s matchup will be touted as a David versus Goliath affair, but Duke and Butler are pretty similar in the way they play. Both teams hang their hats on good man-to-man half court defense and efficient, ball-control offense. It should be a low-scoring, tight game. I expect that Duke will be favored by five or six, but Butler is fully capable of pulling the upset. I’m sure the crowd will be pulling for the Bulldogs.

The line started at Duke -7, but has grown to -7.5 with the news that Butler center Matt Howard is questionable to play after suffering the “mildest of mild concussions” (per the Butler trainer). The Bulldogs will need Howard to pull the upset, because Duke is very big down low. Luckily, it looks like Shelvin Mack will play despite missing a good part of the second half against Michigan State with pain in his legs.

Jeff Sagarin pegs Duke as an almost 9-point favorite, so there still is some value with taking the Blue Devils even with the sizable line. Ken Pomeroy gives Duke an 81% chance to win, which is the biggest advantage of any favorite in the tournament since the Wisconsin/Cornell game (and we all know how that turned out).

I’m reluctant to recommend laying the points because Butler has a way of keeping games close. Both teams play at a slow pace, but I have a feeling that Duke will look to push the ball and try to avoid facing the Bulldogs’ excellent man-to-man defense in the half-court. Against West Virginia, Duke won the rebounding battle (+3) and, more importantly, destroyed the Mountaineers from long range (13-25 from 3PT). In fact, they shot almost 53% from the field for the entire game.

To pull the upset, Butler needs to hold its own on the glass and force the Blue Devils to shoot a poor percentage from long range. This is going to be tough to do, especially if Howard is limited or doesn’t play.

These two teams pride themselves on tough defense and good execution on offense. Duke is just a little better at it. Butler should have the crowd on its side, but it’s tough to create much atmosphere at the Final Four and Duke has plenty of experience playing in front of hostile crowds. I see a close game where Duke’s lead oscillates between 3-5 points most of the way and then the Blue Devils may be able to stretch things out if Butler is forced to foul.

As usual, I’ll be tweeting during the game tonight, so be sure to check back at tip-off.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

The Butler/MSU game was tied at halftime and tight the whole way, but Butler managed a late lead against the Spartans and held on to win. The Bulldogs shot just 31% from the field, but outscored Michigan State by seven at the free throw line and forced 16 turnovers, which offset the poor accuracy from the field. Butler held on to win, 52-50.

Gordon Hayward led the Bulldogs with 19 points and nine rebounds. Butler played the stretch without Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard, who were sidelined with leg spasms and a concussion, respectively.

In the late game, the Blue Devils built an eight-point lead by dominating the glass and hitting their threes, and pulled away in the second half behind their “Big Three” — Jon Scheyer (23), Kyle Singler (21) and Nolan Smith (19). Brian Zoubek controlled the glass on both ends of the floor, posting six points and 10 rebounds.

Monday night’s matchup will be touted as a David versus Goliath affair, but Duke and Butler are pretty similar in the way they play. Both teams hang their hats on good man-to-man half court defense and efficient, ball-control offense. It should be a low-scoring, tight game. I expect that Duke will be favored by five or six, but Butler is fully capable of pulling the upset. I’m sure the crowd will be pulling for the Bulldogs.

I’m going to pretend I work for ESPN and answer the questions that the Worldwide Leader asked its college basketball writers.

What are you most looking forward to Saturday?

Seeing just what kind of crowd Butler is able to draw and whether or not it helps Bulldogs beat Michigan State. Final Four crowds are notoriously corporate and laid back, so if the Butler faithful (and the newly converted) can create some real home court atmosphere, it will make things tough for Michigan State. I’ll also be watching how the Bulldogs handle playing in a dome; they’re used to playing in smaller gyms and fieldhouses in the Horizon League.

At the end of the day, whose performance will we be talking about?

There are a long list of possibilities, but Nolan Smith is playing excellent basketball of late. He’s the only Duke guard that will be able to get into the lane and create his own shot, and his floater will be very useful against West Virginia’s zone. And for all of the talk of Jon Scheyer’s “clutch-ness,” Smith isn’t afraid to take the big shot either.

Butler-Michigan State: Who wins and why?

Despite the Spartans’ experience, I think the Bulldogs win a tight one. They’ve already beat two teams (Syracuse, K-State) that are better than Michigan State, so they appear to be the better team. The question is — can they put all the distractions and the sheer magnitude of the game behind them and just play ball? I think they can.

Duke-West Virginia: Who wins and why?

I have a feeling this game will be nip-and-tuck the entire way with the Blue Devils pulling away at the end with a big three and excellent free throw shooting. Even though it was a 2-3, Baylor’s zone will get Duke ready to face the Mountaineers’ 1-3-1. I don’t expect West Virginia to continue to shoot the three like they did against Kentucky — Duke is excellent at guarding the arc.

Be sure to check back around tip-off — I’ll be tweeting during both games.

Yesterday, I described the play that the Cavs used to beat the Bucks on Wednesday, so in preparation for tomorrow’s Final Four games, I thought I’d dig into one of Butler’s favorite sets.

They ran this play at least twice on Kansas State last weekend and scored both times. It’s especially effective against defenses that try to get out in the passing lanes.

The play starts with the point guard (#1), usually Ronald Nored, at the top of the key, dribbling to his right. Matt Howard (#5) starts to move towards Gordon Hayward (#4) as if he’s going to set a screen for him. Shelvin Mack (#2) starts to creep up the lane towards Howard’s man.

Here’s Howard’s read: If his man is over his left shoulder (as he’s facing Hayward), preparing to help on Hayward (#4) as he comes off the screen, then Howard (#5) knows he has a step on him. He doesn’t screen and immediately releases to the basket.

If Howard’s man is hugging him, Mack (#2) can set a screen, but usually he just engages his own defender (by walking into him and effectively screening him off), so he can’t help on Howard as he cuts to the basket.

If Howard is open, Nored (#1) delivers a pass that should hit the center right in front of the basket for a lay up.

To defend this play, three things need to happen: 1) there needs to be ball pressure on Nored, 2) Howard’s defender needs to stay close to his man preferably on the basket side, and 3) Mack’s defender needs to curl around (get behind) Mack when he starts to head into the lane so that he’s in position to help on Howard when he cuts.

This play uses Hayward as a decoy. Howard’s man is so worried about Hayward coming off the screen that he forgets about protecting the basket against a cut by Howard. Defenses will typically crowd Hayward and Mack since they are Butler’s most dangerous scorers. This leaves the basket open for Howard.

Butler uses a lot of little misdirection plays that work well against aggressive man-to-man defense. Head coach Brad Stevens likes to run this play out of a timeout, so look for it on Saturday. It will be interesting to see how Tom Izzo chooses to defend it.

I’ll be up front. I don’t like the idea of expanding March Madness. But it seems inevitable, given the money involved. Dana O’Neil digested the spin-job presented by the NCAA’s Greg Shaheen, who explained how a 96-team would work.

The convoluted plan goes like this: The tournament would begin on a Thursday or Friday, as it always does, but only teams seeded 33 through 96 would play on those days. The winners would face teams 1 through 32 on Saturday or Sunday.

The winners of those games advance to the second round, to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the Sweet 16 continuing Thursday and Friday, as always.

In other words, if we had had a 96-team bracket this season, ninth-seeded Northern Iowa would have been playing its third game in six days when it squared off against top-seeded Kansas.

Hero Ali Farokhmanesh would have been playing on Gumby legs.

And yet the NCAA insists that 96 teams won’t change a thing, when logic says it will change everything.

All right, that’s how it would look (ugly) — how to people feel about this idea?

Dana O’Neil, ESPN: The NCAA best hire one helluva public-relations firm to promote the drivel that will be the regular season, because all of those great nonconference games that dot the calendar in November and December are going to disappear. What good does it do a national program like Kentucky or North Carolina to play a tough nonleague game? A few patsies, one or two traditional rivalries, a respectable run through the SEC or the ACC, and you’re in. Consider: The Tar Heels would be in a 96-team field this year. Connecticut, too. Easily. And yet the NCAA doesn’t like the term “watered-down” to describe a potential expanded field. Perhaps “diluted” is more palatable?

Ben Doody, The Trentonian: But the tournament will lose a lot of its appeal if it gives 32 teams a bye while the other 64 have to play on the first day. One of the charming things about the tournament as its presently constituted is that Kansas needs to play the same number of games to win the tournament as Robert Morris — that on the first day, upsets like Ohio over Georgetown are possible. This is corny but entirely true: Those upsets give the tournament charm, and that charm is the reason casual sports fans — or better yet, people not even interested in sports — become college basketball fans in March. Expanding the tournament has the potential to turn away those fans in droves, yielding the NCAA’s TV partner — whether its CBS, ESPN or someone else — lower ratings. That could easily mean that by the time it’s time to negotiate the next tournament TV deal, the value of the deal will be less than it would have with a 65-team field… College basketball’s regular season is already under siege from critics for having little significance. If a team like North Carolina can have its most disappointing season in decades and STILL make the NCAA tournament, critics will rightly argue that at least as it pertains to successful teams from power conferences, what goes on between November and February will be a string of exhibition games.

Eamonn Brennan, ESPN College Basketball Nation Blog: In the end, whether or not expansion is eventually seen as a success will depend on one major outcome: Whether people watch the new first-round games. And I don’t mean you, the college basketball sports blog reader, or me, the college basketball sports blogger. I mean the casual fan: The guy who fills out a few brackets every year but doesn’t really freak out about it. The group that sneaks out of the cube farm and heads down to the local bar at lunchtime on Thursday because it looks like Villanova is going to get upset by a No. 15-seed. Dolores, the woman who keeps photos of her cats on her desk. Will those people watch? Or will the NIT-level play on hand — and the less immediately shocking nature of potential first-round upsets — turn them away, souring them on the tournament in general? Whether we eventually view expansion as a disaster (from both a financial and entertainment standpoint) or as another worthy step in the tournament’s long evolution will depend entirely on this new first round.

Dan Shanoff: The essential qualities of the NCAA Tournament — rather than some arbitrary number — are born out by the fact that the Tournament has expanded from 8 to 16 to 32 to 48 to 64 to 65. And I’m sure the pundits either have — or would have — complained all along the way. In vain. … The reality is that most fans don’t pay attention to college basketball until March anyway. And, aside from the die-hard fans who make up about 5 percent of the fans who follow March Madness, those that do tune in before March are watching marquee games between powerhouse teams whose inclusion in the NCAA Tournament field isn’t in doubt. If anything, people watch before March to get a sneak peek of teams they should be betting on IN March. And with 32 more teams, that means that fans who want to know the field have to watch that much regular-season basketball. Meanwhile, the chance to earn a bye gets expanded beyond the four 1-seeds to the Top 32 teams in the country — something worth playing for in January and February. … Let’s see: If Ohio can beat Georgetown, I’d be curious how the 8 teams that finished ahead of Ohio in the MAC might do. Most early-round NCAA games aren’t exactly pretty basketball played at high levels; they’re street fights. Let’s go back to the foundational point: As long as games are close at the finish or won on buzzer-beaters or feature seed upsets or “no-name” schools beating “name” schools, fans will be happy. And that will happen frequently — perhaps more often, given the general parity between teams ranked between 1 and 100.

With Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse out of the picture, some are grumbling about the lack of big-name teams at the Final Four. By the time the final buzzer sounds on Monday night, it’s entirely possible that those same detractors will call the games “boring” or “ugly.”

Here’s why:

1. Pace
There are 347 teams in the D1 ranks and of the four teams set to play Saturday, Michigan State (#215) plays at the fastest pace. The other three teams — Duke (#232), Butler (#285) and West Virginia (#306) — are all in the bottom third in the number of possessions used per game. All four teams are in the top 50 in offensive efficiency (points per possession), so there should be some scoring, but don’t expect any high-octane, up-and-down affairs.

2. Defense
Duke (#3 in defensive efficiency), Butler (#6) and West Virginia (#10) are elite defensive teams, and Michigan State (#33) isn’t bad, either. All four teams hold their opponents to less than 41.5% from the field and 33.1% from long range. Duke and Butler play great positional defense and always seem to have a help defender in the right spot. Michigan State and West Virginia use superior athleticism to smother opponents. The Mountaineers will even utilize a tough-to-attack 1-3-1 zone.

These teams are evenly matched and low-pace, low-scoring affairs lend themselves to close games. This should result in exciting basketball, but we’re not going to see anything like 2009, when all four teams were in the top 130 in overall pace.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Bernie Miklasz, St. Louis Post-Dispatch: I don’t need to watch spoiled, entitled basketball brats from Kentucky go on an ego spree by crazily firing 32 3-point shots, and making only four, in an Elite Eight loss to West Virginia. I’ll take Butler, which runs an offense and (gosh) makes the extra pass. I’m good with Butler’s best player, Gordon Hayward, who told the Indianapolis Star he’s worried about missing his math classes this week. “I’ve got a heavy class load,” Hayward said. “Some guys don’t have anything, but I wasn’t as lucky with scheduling.” Wait a minute: a real student, competing for the NCAA basketball championship? Who let Hayward and Butler in here? Butler clearly needs to hire John Calipari’s academic advisers. I’m fine with Kansas coach Bill Self sitting in the stands. Nothing personal; he’s a nice fellow. But his No. 1 seed Jayhawks lost heart as soon as Northern Iowa punched them in the mouth early on in their second-round game. I’ll take Michigan State coach Tom Izzo, who dug in and willed the Spartans to the Final Four despite the loss of Kalin Lucas, their injured point guard and leading scorer. I’ll even take this version of Duke, which made it back to the Final Four with a lineup rotation that really doesn’t rate with coach Mike Krzyzewski’s previous Final Four teams. Duke’s recruiting has slumped a bit in recent years. Based on previous Duke standards, Coach K has done more with less. There isn’t a sure No. 1 NBA draft pick on this Duke roster.

Jim Riggio, Real Clear Sports: All of the transfers left Duke with just two guards in summer in senior Jon Scheyer and junior Nolan Smith. But through it all Krzyzewski has worked his magic thanks to the knowledge of his players’ academic backgrounds. Andre Dawkins, who committed to Duke as a high school junior and figured to be one of the top prep players in the nation this year, would have actually been playing his fifth year of high school basketball. After transferring high schools following his freshman year, he was allowed to reclassify as a freshman for basketball purposes in the Commonwealth of Virginia. So Krzyzewski spoke to Dawkins about coming to Durham early and with guaranteed playing time available. The youngster couldn’t say no. It sounded like all the problems were solved and Krzyzewski could relax. But then in early December, Dawkins’ mother and sister were planning to drive down to North Carolina to see him play, only to never make it. With his mother also in the car, Dawkins’ sister Lacey was killed on a highway in West Virginia. This forced Dawkins to take temporary leave from the team to grieve his loss.

Jeff Goodman, FoxSports.com: There’s Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski, who will likely retire as the all-time winningest coach in D-1 history; Michigan State’s Tom Izzo, who is making a remarkable sixth Final Four appearance in the past dozen years; and Bob Huggins, who will likely join Coach K and Izzo in the Hall of Fame soon after he calls it a career. Three larger-than-life figures who have roamed the sidelines for years. Three fiery, intimidating personalities who are often unable to control their emotions. Then there’s Stevens, the 33-year-old wunderkind who just never, ever seems to lose his cool. Except when, following the win over Kansas State that earned Butler a spot in the Final Four in the Bulldogs hometown this week, Stevens ran across the floor and exchanged chest-bumps with walk-on Emerson Kampen. Stevens had been doing it in the locker room following each of the first three NCAA tournament wins, but decided to show a side of him that few have seen.

Mitch Albom, Detroit Free Press: Izzo had gone to Tulsa only for the money. It was 1986, he’d been making less than $5,000 a year at Michigan State as a part-time assistant, and Tulsa offered a job as recruiting coordinator, which paid, he recalls, around $35,000. A fortune! Jud Heathcote, his MSU mentor, told him it probably would be a good move, so Izzo packed a suitcase and a duffel bag and went to Oklahoma to work for an intense coach named J.D. Barnett. One of the first questions Barnett had asked him was, “Do you promise you’ll stay?” And Izzo intended to. He wore a shirt and tie every day, as Barnett demanded. He worked from 6:30 a.m. until midnight, six days a week. He touted the Golden Hurricane logo and told recruits Tulsa would be a great place for them to play basketball. But seven weeks after he’d arrived — just as Izzo was about to buy a house — Heathcote called. A position had opened at MSU. Did he want to come back? … “Oh, J.D. went off!” Izzo recalls, laughing. “He was screaming, ‘Turn your car in RIGHT NOW!’ I kept trying to say I was sorry. He wouldn’t hear it. He was so mad. He hung up on me. I don’t blame him.” Izzo went down the hall and found a young staffer named Ron. He asked for a ride back from the car dealership. “I can’t do that,” Ron said, glumly. “Why not?” Izzo said. “J.D. just called and told me not to do anything for you.”

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Andy Glockner, SI.com: Tom Izzo is the best college basketball coach in America. Relax, North Carolina and Duke fans. No one’s slighting your leading men or their career accomplishments. We’re talking about right now, this very moment, two days after Izzo pulled off the near-impossible and made Michigan State’s three-year turn-of-last-decade run now look more like the rule rather than the exception. Think last season’s dramatic push to the national title game in Detroit with a youthful roster was stirring? This year’s Spartans have overcome a leadership void, player-coach discontent and a back-stiffening gym-floor sleepover in addition to the late rash of injuries. Their quartet of NCAA tournament wins are highlighted by a crucial lane violation, a buzzer-beating three and the country’s largest temporary (and most loquacious) point guard dropping a delicious dime that helped beat Tennessee. And let’s be honest: On the list of legendary college basketball settings, how long after Westwood, Lawrence, Chapel Hill and Durham would it take to finally get to East Lansing? Izzo doesn’t get enough credit for the level of talent he brings in, considering he’s selling kids on winters in central Michigan. Meanwhile, Roy Williams’ office phone has a golden arches insignia on it.

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