John Hollinger writes in his latest PER Diem (Insider subscription required) that LeBron’s best bet for long term success may not be in Cleveland…or New York…or New Jersey/Brooklyn…

And it’s especially worth noting that if the Cavs are back in the 45-50 win range this season, King James might be a much more portable commodity this coming summer. If he’s looking at a Cleveland lineup with one majestically talented player and several spare parts, one would think the comparison to such arrangements in New York or New Jersey wouldn’t be dramatically different.

But those aren’t close to being the most palatable changes of uniform available. For instance, it bears mentioning that joining the Chicago squad LeBron’s team lost to Thursday night would be dramatically different. With a young star point guard, quality big men and lots of secondary help, the Bulls — who could get as much as $20 million under the cap if John Salmons opts out of his contract, conveniently opening a spot in the lineup for LeBron at the same time — would offer a more clear opportunity for long-term success.

Let me throw out an even crazier proposition — Minnesota. The Wolves will have the cap space to make a run at LeBron, depending on a few variables — or at the very least can get there fairly easily if they know there’s a chance for a player of this caliber. (Declining an option on Ryan Gomes, for instance, is done much more easily if it allows you to replace him with the best player in the league.)

Minnesota is generally thought of as one of the NBA’s least-desirable relocation options, but let’s consider it from a winning perspective. Who would you rather play with for the next five years: Al Jefferson or Anderson Varejao? Kevin Love or Ilgauskas? Ricky Rubio or Mo Williams? Jonny Flynn or West? Ramon Sessions or Daniel Gibson? Next year’s fourth pick or next year’s 24th? It’s obvious, isn’t it?

Don’t get me wrong — the T-Wolves would be a good fit for LeBron, but he’d be a pretty good fit anywhere. I just don’t see him taking his show from one cold, small-market Midwestern city to another cold, small-market Midwestern city. If he doesn’t stay in Cleveland, then there seem to be three real options:

1. Brooklyn Nets
With Devin Harris and Brook Lopez locked up for the next few years, the Nets have two All-Star caliber players already on the roster at two of the toughest positions to fill — point guard and center. Is the penetrating Harris the perfect fit alongside LeBron? Not necessarily, but if the Nets can find a sharpshooting off guard (Courtney Lee?) and face up power forward (a la Rashard Lewis), the Nets would really be in business. Plus, the move to Brooklyn would take away the stigma of playing in New Jersey.

2. Chicago Bulls
It would break the city of Cleveland’s heart if LeBron fled to the Windy City. New York or Brooklyn? Cleveland fans wouldn’t like it, but they’d understand. But if LeBron heads to Chicago, home of the team that stepped on the Cavs’ throats so many times during the Jordan era, the city might explode. From a pure basketball point of view, it’s a nice fit. They already have Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Kirk Hinrich and maybe Tyrus Thomas. Chicago is also a threat to pry Dwyane Wade out of Miami.

3. New York Knicks
This is more about MSG and the spotlight than who the Knicks have on the roster. Playing in Mike D’Antoni’s system would be nice, and if the Knicks can unload either Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries, they’d have enough cap space to sign another free agent to max deal. This might be a case of the Knicks having to coax Chris Bosh out of Toronto or Amare Stoudemire out of Phoenix before being able to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line.

We’re only a couple of weeks into the season and the talk is already starting. The Cavs have plenty of time to morph into a 60-win team, but right now they don’t look it. And the longer they struggle, the louder the drum beat is going to sound.

Garnett’s knee is just fine. It has been a concern in camp, but apparently KG has his explosion back. In a recent practice, he caught an alley-oop and slammed it home. The Celtics’ fortunes depend heavily on the health of Garnett’s knee. Without him at full strength, they’ll have a tough time competing with the Cavs and Magic. As an NBA fan, a healthy KG is good for the league.

Is Russell Westbrook turning into a dependable point guard? The Oklahoman reports that is A/T ratio in the preseason is 5.4. Last season it was 1.6, which is quite bad. It’s a small sample size, but if Westbrook can get his A/T ratio above 3.0, it will reap dividends for the Thunder. From a fantasy perspective, if he were to cut his turnovers in half and have the same number of assists (which would result in a A/T ratio of about 3.0), then he’d be the 15th most efficient point guard (just below Mo Williams) instead of the 21st most efficient.

Stephen Jackson will play for the Warriors, but he’s not happy about it. There’s a good chance the Warriors will acquiesce and try to fulfill Jackson’s wishes to be traded, but the 31 year-old has three more years remaining on his contract at the tune of $9.3 per season, so there’s no guarantee that a playoff team would be willing to make a move for him. Miami could move Michael Beasley, but Jackson’s contract would ruin the Heat’s financial flexibility next summer. The Suns could use Jackson to replace an aging Grant Hill, but they’re in financial trouble. The Hornets probably make the most sense, but are they willing to spend?

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David Lee wooed by Blazers, but was worried about playing time. Portland offered $28 million over four years, but Lee didn’t think there were enough minutes to be had with LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden already on the front line. It looks as if Lee left $21 million in guaranteed money on the table to stay with the Knicks and play out the season. This is a big risk, but it may pay off next summer.

Blazers, Aldridge still talking extension. While it’s good to hear that negotiations aren’t at a standstill, it’s still worrisome that a deal has not yet been finalized. Aldridge is not a no-brainer max-contract guy, so right now, the Blazers are trying to convince his agent that Aldridge is not worth the max. This can be a tough pill to swallow, expecially with all those teams sitting on loads of cap space next summer. If Aldridge becomes a restricted free agent in 2010 and gets a max deal in the form of an offer sheet, then the Blazers will probably match. But it’s their job to get him for what they think he’s worth, and right now the franchise has the leverage.

Monta Ellis warming up to Stephen Curry. Ellis was worried that Curry was just a shooter, but he’s shown the ability to create (specifically the nine assists he had in the Warriors’ first preseason game). I’m not sure why Ellis is so concerned with the team’s front office decisions, as he should be focused on having a bounce-back year after a fairly disastrous 2008-09 season. Curry and Ellis may face some matchup problems on the defensive end, but they have the potential to create as many problems for their opponents on the other end of the court.

LeBron not a fan of the “sit down” rule. I don’t blame him. He doesn’t want to see the emotion sucked out of the game, and that’s what this rule does. The league doesn’t want its players to block the view of the fans that pay thousands and thousands of dollars for premier seats, but there has to be a compromise here. Why not have a rule where the players can stand up to cheer a play but have to sit down within some set amount of time?

Delonte West misses practice (unexcused) again. All right, one unexcused absence I can understand, but after he was MIA yesterday, wouldn’t the Cavs track him down to find out why he was absent? Of course they would, which is why he is either completely unreachable or the Cavs don’t approve of his reasons for missing practice. This is worrisome, but expect the team to give him a lot of leeway to get his life straightened out.

The New York Daily News thinks there has been another sign that LeBron is headed to the Knicks. His name is William Wesley and apparently he has LeBron’s ear. He was at Knicks camp this week and some conspiracy theorists believe his presence is a sign that LeBron will be playing in New York next season.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Joe Johnson will not sign an extension this season. Instead, Johnson is going to become a free agent next summer when a number of teams are going to have the cap space to offer a max deal. After LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and (maybe) Amare Stoudemire, Johnson is the next biggest prize in the free agent class of 2010. He’s one of those players that isn’t quite worth a max deal but he’s going to get one anyway. (Think Michael Redd circa 2005.)

Byron Scott told the Times-Picayune that the Hornets’ starting small forward job is Julian Wright’s to lose. This is about a year too late. Wright was quite productive (PER: 15.48) in his rookie season, but the Hornets went with James Posey instead, thinking that he’d be the missing piece to the championship puzzle. Wright is one of those young, talented players that is going to see a big increase in minutes, so fantasy basketball owners should take note.

The New York Knicks have re-signed David Lee. Nate Robinson is close to a deal as well.

Lee’s agent, Mark Bartelstein, told ESPN.com on Thursday that the sides have an agreement in principle on a one-year contract.

“We’re on the verge of getting this done,” Bartelstein said. “I believe David will sign the contract tomorrow.”

The contract is believed to be worth $7 million for the 2009-10 season with incentives that could take it to $8 million if the Knicks reach the playoffs.

Fellow restricted free agent Nate Robinson has also reached terms with the Knicks on a one-year deal, according to a source with knowledge of the talks, that will pay him a higher salary than Robinson’s $2.9 million qualifying offer.

The Knicks’ stance has been clear all along. They are very reluctant to sign players to contracts that run longer than one year because they want to have as much cap flexibility as possible next season when they hope to woo a big-name free agent to New York.

If Lee’s contract demands were more reasonable, he would have signed a multi-year deal with another team a long time ago. But his camp has demanded $8-$10 million per season this entire time, and the market just won’t bear it. He’s a great rebounder, but he’s just an average defender and his numbers are a bit inflated because the Knicks play at a frenetic pace. By signing a one-year deal, he is risking the financial security of a mid-level deal that he no doubt could have signed had he been willing to reduce his asking price.

Would you rather have a guaranteed $7 million with a shot at a long-term deal averaging $8 million next summer or a mid-level deal that runs five years and a guaranteed $34 million starting this summer? If he suffers a career-ending injury this season, his decision to sign a one-year deal will cost him $27 million.

That’s a lot of risk. After all, 27 million birds in the hand are better than 47 million in the bush, right?

Per the Charlotte Observer…

The Charlotte Bobcats and Raymond Felton’s agent both confirmed this morning that Felton has signed the one-year, $5.5 million qualifying offer for this season, which will make him an unrestricted free agent next summer.

This amounts to an acknowledgement that the team and Felton couldn’t work out a long-term deal. Agent Kevin Bradbury said Felton isn’t upset by that and wants to remain in Charlotte.

The solid play of D.J. Augustin has made Felton expendable in Charlotte. Felton averaged 14.2 points and 6.7 assists last year, but shot less than 41% from the field and less than 29% from long range.

When restricted free agents are unable to work out a long-term deal, it’s a sign that they will be moving to a different zip code within a year. We’ll see if that holds true for Felton.

Dwyane Wade is in Chicago right now for the 3rd annual “Wade’s World” charity weekend. The festivities include a benefit dinner, a kick-off party, school visits, a bowling party, a youth summit and a school supply giveaway. But the event that D.Wade really wanted to promote was the Gatorade “Chicago Has Talent” show on Saturday night at the Harris Theater at Millenium Park. (For tickets or information call 312-334-7777 or visit www.harristheaterchicago.org. All proceeds go towards the Wade’s World Foundation.) Go to the foundation’s website for more information about the weekend’s festivities and events.

D.Wade took a few minutes out of his busy schedule to chat with The Scores Report about the weekend, what it was like to win an Olympic gold medal and where he might sign next summer.

TSR: D. Wade. How are you doing?

DW: I’m good, boss. I’m good.

TSR: It’s a pleasure to talk to one of the best – if not the best – basketball players on the planet.

DW: Aw, well, I appreciate that.

TSR: I saw your itinerary for this “Wade’s World” Weekend and it looks like you are about to present a check to the William Leonard Public Library. What does it mean for you to be able to give back to your hometown?

DW: It means a lot. Whether it’s a big contribution or a small contribution to be able to give back to not only my hometown and my community, but to others as well. I’ve been very blessed and I think it’s my job to continue to help others that are in dire need, like the William Leonard Public Library in Robbins.

TSR: There’s a jam-packed weekend of activities. One thing I wanted to ask you about was the Gatorade “Chicago Has Talent” show on Saturday. Can you tell me a little bit about that?

DW: Yeah, you look at the whole weekend and we’ve got many different events going on. Some of them you’re going to have fun and some of them are fundraisers, but I think the biggest thing is the one that Gatorade really got behind was the “Chicago Has Talent” because it’s showcasing our kids and giving them an opportunity in life. I think we’re going to have between 10-15 different groups of kids perform in front of a crowd of around 1,000 people, and get a chance to showcase their talent. And the top 3 will get an opportunity to do some special things, but the winner is going to go on and do some great things and get an opportunity to be seen. I think our job is to give them that chance and that hope that they can do it. So I’m looking forward to it. I can’t wait until that Saturday event. That’s probably the biggest event to me of the week of all the things we’re doing.

TSR: That’s at the Harris Theater at 7:00 PM at Millenium Park and tickets (which start at $15) are available.

DW: Yeah, that’s at the Harris Theater and it’s just after we get done with a youth summit where we have a panel full of celebrities and powerful, important people in the community, and they get to talk to kids for a couple of hours about violence and sex, and about so many different topics, and that’s actually right before the show.

TSR: And that’s at the UIC Forum at 725 W. Roosevelt Road.

DW: Yeah.

TSR: So do you mind if I ask you a couple of basketball-related questions?

DW: Sure.

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Per the NY Times…

“I want to be in Miami, and I hope everything works out that way,” Wade said Thursday. “I want to be one of those players that stays with one franchise for his entire career.”

“Next year will be a big year for myself and for the team, but the plan has always been to stay with the Heat, and that’s still the plan,” he said. “I think everything will work out.”

The NY Post went a step further, asking Wade if the Knicks or Nets had a chance of signing him.

And while admitting the Heat were still the favorites, for his services, he pretty much dashed any hope of the Nets or Knicks getting him. After saying firmly “The Heat” as the frontrunner, he was asked point blank if the Nets or Knicks had a chance.

“Not in my mind. I’m not thinking about the Knicks or the Nets. Only when we play them,” Wade said.

In a piece about which teams will project to have a lot of cap space next summer, I wrote this about the Heat…

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

There might be a little chicken and the egg thing going on here. In order for the Heat to attract a top free agent like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire, they need to have a commitment from Dwyane Wade that he’ll re-sign. (Last summer, Baron Davis learned this the hard way when Elton Brand bolted for Philly.) But in order to get Wade to re-sign, he needs to know that there’s help on the way.

Right now, the Nets (with a nice core of Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the Knicks (great market) look to be the two biggest threats to stealing Wade away. In his own words, he doesn’t think there’s much of a chance of that happening.

But a lot can happen in a year.

ESPN’s Chad Ford wrote a good article [Insider subscription required] about how the Knicks’ rebuilding plan has shaped up thus far.

They successfully shed Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford, Zach Randolph and Jerome James. But Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries are still on the roster, and their contracts will eat up cap space in 2010. Surprisingly GM Donnie Walsh passed up a chance to trade Jeffries for Kenny Thomas’s expiring contract at the trade deadline. I have no idea why he would do that.

The Knicks also did a great job of wooing Mike D’Antoni to New York. Players love to play in his up-tempo system and he has a number of connections to NBA stars given his stint as assistant coach for Team USA.

But Ford writes that “phase 3″ of the plan has hit a few snags:

The plan was to restock the Knicks’ talent pool via the draft. Rookies have low salaries and high upside, and given the Knicks’ lack of talent the team hoped it could strike gold once or twice in the draft. While it’s still very early, things haven’t gone according to plan so far. The Knicks’ top targets the past two years have been off the draft board when they drafted.

In 2008, their two favorites — Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo — were gone, so they settled for Danilo Gallinari. While Gallinari showed enormous promise in Europe, he hurt his back in the summer league and played sparingly for the Knicks in his rookie season while he tried to rehab. Meanwhile, the Knicks passed on several prospects in the ‘08 draft — like Brook Lopez, Eric Gordon and Anthony Randolph — who look like potential stars down the road.

In 2009, Walsh and D’Antoni had their hearts set on Davidson shooting star Stephen Curry. However, the Warriors took him one place ahead of the Knicks, who settled on Arizona forward Jordan Hill. While Hill has upside, too, he’s closer to Dale Davis than Amare Stoudemire.

And what about 2010? In 2005, Isiah agreed to send that first-round pick to Phoenix as part of the Marbury trade. The Suns then traded it to Utah. There are no protections left on the pick. It’s gone.

Isn’t it a little ironic that the Knicks are struggling at the one thing (finding talent in the draft) that Isiah Thomas was good at? Gallinari may still turn out to be a player, but I’m sure Knicks fans would trade him for any number of players that the team passed up. Ford mentioned Lopez, Gordon and Randolph, but what about D.J. Augustin or Jason Thompson?

While I like Jordan Hill, it seems a little counter intuitive to draft a power forward when you already have David Lee on the roster and are potentially targeting Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire next summer. However, the Knicks probably view Bosh and Stoudemire as potential centers in D’Antoni’s system.

To draft Hill, the Knicks passed up Brandon Jennings, who turned in a very good summer league performance for the Bucks and has the kind of speed, quickness and vision to be a nightmare on the fast break. The team has been flirting with Ramon Sessions (also of the Bucks), but has yet to come to terms on a deal even though Milwaukee put themselves in a tough position to match any offer greater than $2 or $3 million per season. As it stands, the Knicks don’t have a point guard to run D’Antoni’s system.

And, as Ford writes, the Knicks’ plans have soured with the economy. If they are able to move both Jeffries and Curry, they would have enough to sign two max-contract players, but even then, it would be tough to fill out the roster with the limited funds available. It’s looking more and more that the Knicks aren’t going to have the talent to attract LeBron James or Dwyane Wade. Forgetting about D’Antoni and Madision Square Garden for a moment, wouldn’t LeBron and Wade, assuming they change teams, rather play in Brooklyn with Devin Harris and Brook Lopez?

ESPN’s Chad Ford lists nine teams that will have significant cap space next summer. [Insider subscription required.]

1. Nets ($25-$27 million)
2. Knicks ($24 million, assuming they don’t sign anyone for longer than a year)
3. Heat ($20-$22 million)
4. Timberwolves ($16-$18 million)
5. Bulls ($13-$15 million minus whatever they give Tyrus Thomas)
6. Thunder ($14-$15 million)
7. Rockets ($12-$14 million minus whatever they give to Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes)
8. Clippers ($10-$11 million)
9. Kings ($9-$10 million)

This assumes a cap of $53.6 million, which is an optimistic view. The cap could drop below $50 million.

It takes about $14 million of space to sign a max-contract player, so even under these optimistic circumstances, there really are only five teams — the Nets, Knicks, Heat, T-Wolves and Thunder — that will have that kind of space. (The Bulls are likely to keep Thomas and the Rockets are likely to retain Landry and Hayes, though they could make another move here or there to put them in position to add a superstar.)

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

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