…me!

I’m happy to report that I held onto the #1 spot in the FantasyPros accuracy contest and have been named this season’s most accurate fantasy expert. After finishing #1 in Week 14 and #2 in Week 15, I didn’t have the strongest Week 16 (#22 overall, though I’d like to note that I finished #1 in DT and #2 in K, which don’t count towards the competition), but my 0.9% lead still held strong. Here’s an excerpt from the FantasyPros article summarizing the results:

Was there any doubt that John Paulsen would finish on top as 2010’s Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert?! After leading the competition for an astounding 11 consecutive weeks, Paulsen held on in the final week of the season to take home the top prize. The key indicator of Paulsen’s dominance was that he was the only expert in the competition to rank in the top 10 for each of the 4 positions that factor into our overall scoring: WR (#1), RB (#3), QB (#10), TE (#1). Heck, he even finished as our #3 rated DST expert so you know he had the magic touch. Simply put, his player rankings were a one-stop destination for advice seekers looking for any kind help. And as a guy who helped so many people win their league titles, it’s certainly fitting to crown him as this year’s accuracy champ. Congrats, John!

By position, I finished #1 in both TE and WR, #3 in RB and DT and #10 in QB. (Damn quarterbacks!)

I’d like to thank the fine folks over at FantasyPros for running this contest — it has obviously given me and TSR a lot of exposure, and it has been fun having a level playing field to compete against the big boys.

Now that Week 16 has come and gone, it’s time to hand out a few awards for the 2010 season. Let’s jump right in…

Most Valuable QB: Michael Vick, Eagles
While I believe that Tom Brady deserves the real-world MVP, Vick is without a doubt the top fantasy QB of the year. He finished QB1 despite missing three-plus games due to injury, and the best fantasy playoff numbers of any QB, scoring 27.1, 42.1 and 28.5, respectively.

Most Valuable RB: Arian Foster, Texans
It’s amazing to think that Foster was going in the 5th or 6th round (or even later) in fantasy drafts in late August. Through W16, Foster racked up 2,030 total yards and 16 TDs, becoming (out of necessity) one of the few every-down RBs in the league. He didn’t have the greatest fantasy playoff by his standards (321 total yards, one TD), but he dominated the competition throughout the season and none of the other top RBs had good enough playoff numbers to trump Foster’s regular season exploits.

Most Valuable WR: Roddy White, Falcons
Just like Foster, White didn’t have eye-popping numbers in the playoffs (18 catches, 187 yards, two TDs) but he didn’t lay any eggs, either. In PPR leagues, he finished 30 points ahead of the next best WR and no other top WR had a great W14-16 run to offset White’s performance in the regular season. He’ll likely be the top fantasy WR heading into next season given his age and consistency.

Most Valuable TE: Jason Witten, Cowboys
Antonio Gates was well on his way to winning this award, but a midseason foot injury knocked him out of the stretch run. Meanwhile, Witten raised his game down the stretch, posting 40-395-5 over the last five games and 25-254-4 during the three-week fantasy playoffs. In fact, I’d argue that Witten outperformed his competition during W14-16 more than any other player at any other position this season, at least in PPR formats.

Most Valuable DT: New England Patriots
The Steelers were a little better for the entire season, but the Patriots really came on down the stretch, scoring 60 fantasy points over the final four games (and 48 in W14-16). What’s funny is that a midseason swoon made the Pats available on the waiver wires in a lot of leagues, so owners who were fortunate enough to pick the NE DT up (and hold onto them), gave themselves a big boost during the fantasy playoffs.

Most Valuable K: Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders
Janikowski started the season strong, scoring 10+ in seven of his first nine games (and 6.9+ in the other two) before his bye. Over the next three games, he failed to score more than 5.0, but turned it on during the fantasy playoffs, scoring 7.0, 17.1 and 21.3 over the final three weeks of the season, finishing as the top fantasy kicker in the process. Despite all the uncertainty at QB, Janikowski was a dependable weapon this season for fantasy owners. And it just goes to show how much depth there is at kicker — he was the #14 kicker off the draft board back in August.

Biggest Surprise: Brandon Lloyd, Broncos
All due respect to Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis and Marcedes Lewis, Brandon Lloyd became fantasy’s #2 WR just one season removed from an eight-catch 2009. As the 93rd WR off the draft board, he was the definition of a waiver wire gem, finishing with 72 catches for 1375 yards and 10 TDs. I was admittedly slow to get on the Lloyd bandwagon, as I had been burned by him before (in San Francisco, and then in Washington), but those owners with short memories who managed to snag him off the waiver wire enjoyed his fine play for much of the season. He did crap the bed in W13 and W14 (totaling just five catches for 63 yards), which gave this writer a certain sense of satisfaction, but he turned it on again in W15-16, racking up nine catches for 190 yards and a TD with Tim Tebow under center.

It’s Labor Day weekend and you’re at your buddy Phil’s house waiting for the draft to start. Tank, who played a little football in college (and thinks he’s a fantasy genius because of it) is sitting on the couch with his laptop on the coffee table.

Tank: So who did you get to fill in for Doug?

You: He’s my long lost uncle. I met him at our family reunion last month.

Phil: Is he solid?

You: I guess. He told me to let him know if there were any fantasy leagues with spots open. Sounds like he’s a pretty avid player.

Tank: I can’t believe Doug’s wife forbade him to play. That’s ridiculous.

There is a knock on the door. It’s your Uncle Nostradamus.

N: What up, yo?

Tank: Nice beard, man. Rocking the ZZ Top look.

Phil: Thanks for filling in last second.

N: No worries. Where is everyone?

Phil: We’ve got them on speakerphone.

N: Schweet. What’s my pick?

Tank: Well, Doug, a.k.a. the man with no balls, had the #12 pick, so you’re right after me. Wait, don’t you have a cheat sheet or anything?

N: (tapping his head with his hands) It’s all up here, my man.

The draft begins. It gets to Tank’s pick (1.11). He gets excited.

Tank: I can’t pass up Randy Moss here in a PPR league. The guy is money with Brady and he’s in a contract year.

Nostradamus chuckles.

Tank: What?

N: Nothing. Is it my pick?

Phil: Yeah.

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It’s week 16 and if your team is still alive, it’s not time to get cute. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Aaron Rodgers or Chris Johnson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.

As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

The Seahawks have been brutal against the pass, so I’d expect another good fantasy line from Josh Freeman, who has been very steady this season…Believe it or not, I have Tim Tebow ranked in the top 10 this week. He played pretty well against the Raiders last week and this week he faces a Texans’ pass defense that has given up an average of 275 yards and 2.2 pass TDs per game. I wouldn’t expect that yardage from Tebow, but 200 passing yards plus 2-3 total TDs is well within reach against Houston’s secondary…Need another sleeper? Rex Grossman has a nice matchup with Jacksonville’s 27th-ranked pass defense.

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Welcome to an abbreviated version of the Waiver Wire Watch. It’s Week 16, and most fantasy teams have been eliminated or on cruise control, so instead of listing virtually every player available on the waiver wire, I’m just going to highlight a few players at each position that might be able to help fantasy teams in Week 16. As always, I’m going to limit my scope to those players available in at least 40% (or thereabout) of ESPN leagues. I’ll put the player’s percentage-owned next to their name.

Let’s start with the quarterback position, where I still find it amazing that Josh Freeman (69.8) is still available in 30% of leagues. Not only has he been very consistent this season, but he has a great matchup with the Seahawks in Week 16. I suspect he’ll be in my Top 12 when my rankings come out on Wednesday…Ryan Fitzpatrick (31.3) has the Patriots at home this week, and barring a snow storm, that’s shaping up to be a pretty good matchup. New England showed on Sunday night that its pass defense still leaves something to be desired…David Garrard (46.4) had a strong game against the Colts and has a terrific W16 matchup with the Redskins’ porous pass defense…Need a deep sleeper? Both Tim Tebow (4.0) and Rex Grossman (0.3) have nice matchups with the Texans and Jaguars, respectively. I wouldn’t trust either guy over a more established option, but if you’re desperate, you could do worse. These are some bad pass defenses we’re talking about.

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Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Arian Foster because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.

As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

Jon Kitna has played pretty well since taking over for Tony Romo, and this week he has a nice matchup with the Redskins, who have struggled mightily against the pass this season…Josh Freeman should continue to put up solid fantasy lines the rest of the way. This week he has the Lions, who did play well against Aaron Rodgers for a half last week. Still, this is a secondary that has given up 20+ to Jon Kitna, Donovan McNabb and Mark Sanchez in the last eight weeks, so Freeman should finish with good stats…Jason Campbell is probably available on your waiver wire (or was earlier in the week) and has a terrific matchup with a reeling Broncos defense that has given up 1.8 pass TDs per game this season.

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Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Josh Freeman (59.0)
Save for a bad game against the Steelers in W3, Freeman has been solid all season throwing for at least one TD in 12 of 13 games. He’ll also add 10-40 rushing yards, which helps the bottom line. He should be able to post nice numbers in a W15 matchup against the Lions.

Jon Kitna (18.2)
Kitna has a pretty good matchup with the Redskins, who have struggled to stop the pass this season. He has thrown at least one TD in seven of his last eight games, so I’d expect 200+ yards and 1-2 TDs against Washington in W15.

Matt Hasselbeck (14.3)
The Falcons have struggled against the pass and Hasselbeck has shown that he can be productive against suspect secondaries. It would certainly help if Mike Williams and/or Ben Obomanu could make it back, since the Seahawks lost Deon Butler to a broken leg.

David Garrard (43.2)
I’m not psyched about Garrard’s matchup with Indy. He played well against the Colts in W4, but the Jags will continue to feature the run, so I don’t see another three-TD game in his near future. Still, he’s a decent matchup and has had success against the Colts recently.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (33.6)
I do like the idea of Fitzy in W16 against the Pats (though they’ve managed to shut down Mark Sanchez and Jay Cutler in recent weeks). But the Dolphins are pretty tough against the pass, so I expect I’ll rank Fitzpatrick in the high teens this week.

Jason Campbell (6.7)
Campbell played well in a good matchup against the Jags in W14 and now he has another good matchup against the reeling Broncos. Campbell has had his share of stinkers (W6 against the 49ers and W11 against the Steelers come to mind), but he has played well in good matchups, so I’d expect a good line this week against the Broncos.

Kerry Collins (1.2)
Talk about inconsistent. Collins went from dreadful against the Jags in W13 to great (fantasy-wise) against the Colts in W14. He has the Texans in W15, so I’d expect good fantasy numbers.

Sam Bradford (34.5)
What’s happened to the rookie? He had a run of six straight games with at least one TD pass, but has failed to throw any in the last two weeks. His matchups the next two weeks are decent, but his recent failings have shaken my confidence in the youngster.

Drew Stanton (0.7)
Stanton was shaky against the Packers, but Green Bay is tough to throw on. The Bucs should be a bit easier, especially with Aqib Talib out for the season.

Chad Henne (46.9)
With back-to-back stinkers, as well as losing his job midseason, I’m not sure how Henne is owned in almost 47% of ESPN leagues. He does have the Bills and Lions the next two weeks, so if you’re really desperate, you could do worse. (See below.)

Alex Smith (6.7)
Smith torched the Seahawks, but the Chargers are another story.

Matt Flynn (0.0)
He had one good drive against the Lions, but threw a costly pick in the endzone. I am not optimistic about his chances against the Pats, who have played pretty good pass defense of late.

Jake Delhomme (1.4)
Ugh.

Tarvaris Jackson (0.9)
UGH.

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With so much on the line during the fantasy playoffs, I thought I’d take a closer look at the productive RBBCs around the league and try to read the tea leaves in order to figure out who will dominate the touches over the last few games.

Off we go…

New Orleans Saints
Pierre Thomas returned to action and saw 16 touches (for 58 yards). This was more than anticipated because Chris Ivory suffered/re-aggravated a hamstring injury at some point in the first half, finishing with just seven touches (47 yards), all carries. Ivory ran the ball better (6.7 ypc) than Thomas (3.3), but that’s to be expected as Pierre works his way back into game speed. Reggie Bush had 14 touches for 61 yards. If Ivory can’t play or is limited next week, Thomas will become a low-end RB2/flex play against a Ravens defense that has been pretty good against the run.

Detroit Lions
I watched this game and I thought Maurice Morris was getting more work, but Jahvid Best actually out-touched Morris 14 to 12. Morris gained 57 yards and ran the ball better. Best only managed 42 yards on two more touches. The reason I’m writing about the Lions is because they play the Bucs next week so there’s a chance for a Detroit RB to post nice numbers. If the team gives Morris 15+ carries, I think he’ll have a nice day, but it appears that they want to keep Best involved.

Washington Redskins
Mike Shanahan strikes again! All week he played coy about who his starter was leading fantasy owners to believe that he’d use some sort of committee. Yeah, well, that didn’t happen. Ryan Torain reclaimed the RB1 job with 172 yards on 24 carries and added two catches for 10 yards. Keiland Williams only had four carries (for 16 yards) but turned three catches into 60 yards. I wouldn’t expect that kind of production every week. Torain is clearly the Redskin RB to own for the final three weeks of the season.

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Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.

As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

Joe Flacco has been really good lately (267 yards, 2.0 pass TDs over his last seven games) and he has a matchup with the worst pass defense in the league. Good things should happen…Even with Asante Samuel back for the Eagles, I still like Jon Kitna this week. The Eagles have given up 24 pass TDs on the season and this one is shaping up to be a shootout…Josh Freeman should have a nice day against the Redskins, who have struggled all season against the pass. Washington has given up an average of 32 points over the last five games, so Freeman should find the endzone once or twice…Need a spot starter off the waiver wire? Alex Smith is back under center for the 49ers and he has an outstanding matchup against the Seahawks’ 30th-ranked pass defense.

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Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (34.0)
He had a brutal first half in a so-so matchup, but the Vikings’ defense plays pretty tough at home. Over the next three weeks he has CLE, @MIA and NE. That W16 matchup against the Patriots is tasty.

Jon Kitna (14.1)
It wasn’t a great matchup against Indy, but Kitna fared pretty well. He has PHI, WAS and @ARI over the next three weeks, so even without Dez Bryant, he should still be able to post solid numbers down the stretch. Romo’s pending return could be a headache, but I don’t think the Cowboys are going to rush him back.

David Garrard (42.1)
The Jags are running the ball more and more and it’s eating into Garrard’s numbers, though he has rushed for a TD in each of the last two weeks. He’s startable in W14 (OAK) and W16 (WAS).

Sam Bradford (36.3)
Do I see a chink in the rookie’s armor? After a string of five consecutive games with at least 251 yards passing or two TDs, Bradford had his first bad game since Week 5…against the Cardinals no less. I’m not terribly optimistic about his chances against a relatively tough Saints pass defense.

Matt Hasselbeck (14.3)
His matchups down the stretch (@SF, ATL, @TB) are pretty favorable, but with Mike Williams 1.0 out, Hasselbeck is running out of options, and fast. Hopefully, Ben Obomanu can shake off that lacerated hand and make it back by Sunday.

Troy Smith (4.4)
After hooking up with Vernon Davis for a long TD, Smith finished with decent numbers on the day. He has a nice matchup this week against the Seahawks, but should be avoided after that (@SD, @STL).

Jason Campbell (6.2)
It’s not always pretty, but Campbell is capable of putting up good fantasy numbers when the stars align. He has two good matchups coming up (@JAX, DEN) before a date with the Colts in W16.

Chad Henne (47.7)
He had three picks against the Browns. What is the Jets’ defense going to do to him?

Drew Stanton (0.3)
He was decent in a tough matchup with the Bears. I wouldn’t want to use him against the Packers this week, but his W15 matchup with an Aqib Talib-less Bucs secondary isn’t a bad matchup.

Kerry Collins (1.2)
Maybe dreadful is too strong of a word to describe Collins’ performance against a sketchy Jags’ pass defense. 169 yards and two TDs…no it’s not too strong. He has the Colts this week (so-so) and the Texans in W15 (great matchup) before traveling to KC.

Jake Delhomme (1.1)
Congratulations to Jake Delhomme, who threw a TD without throwing an interception for the first time this season. Assuming Colt McCoy can’t make it back, he has a decent matchup with the Bills this week.

Jimmy Clausen (1.0)
Very good matchup, but he hasn’t thrown a TD pass since W4, so why are you reading this?

Tarvaris Jackson (0.7)
He threw two TDs and three picks against the Bills. The Vikings would be better off giving him some reps to see where he’s at heading into next season, but they appear to want Favre back under center if he’s healthy. We’ll see.

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