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Which TEs were most productive in 2010? Other positions: QB | RB | WR | TE | DT Here’s a look at the Top 50 TEs of 2010 in terms of adjusted fantasy points per game, which is calculated by dividing the player’s total points by the number of games he played and then adjusting the result by the average schedule bias for his team. Keep in mind these are points scored in a standard (non-PPR) scoring system. (The PPR table is further down.) Who were the most productive WRs in 2010? Other positions: QB | RB | WR | TE | DT I’ve already covered quarterbacks and running backs, now it’s time to look at wide receivers on a per game basis. Below is a table of the Top 50 WRs of 2010 in terms of adjusted fantasy points per game, which is calculated by dividing the player’s total points by the number of games he played and then adjusting the result by the average schedule bias for his team. Keep in mind these are points scored in a standard (non-PPR) scoring system. (The PPR table is further down.) Which RBs were the most productive in 2010? Other positions: QB | RB | WR | TE | DT As I outlined in yesterday’s QB post, total points is not always the best way to judge a player’s season, especially when you’re trying to project how he’s going to play in the future. I prefer to look at per game numbers that are adjusted for strength of schedule. That way, I have a pretty good idea how each player would fare against neutral competition. Here’s a look at the Top 50 RBs of 2010 in terms of adjusted fantasy points per game, which is calculated by dividing the player’s total points by the number of games he played and then adjusting the result by the average schedule bias for his team. Keep in mind these are points scored in a standard (non-PPR) scoring system. (The PPR table is further down.) Which QBs were the most productive in 2010? Other positions: QB | RB | WR | TE | DT Most fantasy owners focus on total points scored when trying to determine how a certain player performed in any given year. But that total doesn’t always tell the whole story. There are two big factors — strength of schedule and points per game — that should be taken into account when attempting to judge a player, especially when a fantasy owner is putting together his rankings. If a QB had an unusually easy schedule in 2010, and his schedule in 2011 is much tougher, we can expect that his numbers are going to take a hit. The opposite is true if a QB projects to have a much easier schedule. Likewise, if a player has great per game numbers, but spent a good portion of the year sidelined with one injury or another (think Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo or Michael Vick) then total fantasy points isn’t a good indicator of what that player might be capable of in 2011. Below is a list of the Top 40 QBs in terms of adjusted fantasy points per game, which is calculated by dividing the player’s total points by the number of games he played and then adjusting the result by the average schedule bias for his team. The bias for the aforementioned Vick, Romo and Stafford will be off, since the average takes into account all 16 games, and they only appeared in 12, six and three games, respectively. Still, it gives us a pretty good idea how these players rank amongst their peers given their abbreviated seasons. Let’s take a look… Which wideouts had the worst hands in 2010? Certain players take a lot of criticism for dropped passes. James Jones was one of those guys in 2010, especially after he missed an opportunity for a huge gainer in Super Bowl XLV. The Packers have to decide what to do with Jones this offseason. There was a report that they didn’t offer him a restricted free agent tender, but he says they did. This got me thinking — just how bad were Jones’ drops this year? The number of passes that a WR drops is not a stat that is widely available. I found this table over at the Washington Post, which allowed me to calculate each player’s drops as a percentage of their targets: What do we think of the new Rotoworld design? I thought the other one was getting pretty dated, so I like the new design. What do you think? Posted in: Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Football, MLB, NBA, NFL Tags: 2010 fantasy football, Rotoworld
I’m now in 17th out of 23 entries. Anthony Stalter (a.k.a. Against The Spread) moved ahead of me with Aaron Rodgers (43 points), Greg Jennings (14) and Todd Heap (11). He’s sitting in 15th with two weeks to play. Looking ahead, I’m in a tough spot at QB, as I’ve already used both NFC QBs. So I have to pick between Mark Sanchez and Ben Roethlisberger and hope that I don’t pick the winning QB. Otherwise, I’ll be without a QB in the final week, and that’s not good. I’ve also already used the top WR for all four teams (Jennings, Holmes, Knox and Wallace), so I’ll need to choose my wideouts wisely. These are four very good defenses, so I’m not sure how many fantasy points will be scored going forward.
Boy, second to last. I don’t have much to say in my defense other than that I wasn’t expecting Greg Freaking Jennings and Dwayne Freaking Bowe to combine for one Freaking catch for eight Freaking yards, or zero Freaking fantasy points. I did pretty well at QB (Rodgers, 27 points) and RB (Rice, 17 points; Bush, 6 points — before inevitable injury), but WR really killed me. What’s worse is that Jennings now has a tasty matchup with ATL, but I can’t use him. I started him in the first week because PHI hasn’t been playing very good pass defense of late and I was afraid the Packers might get beat and I wouldn’t be able to get Jennings in my lineup. I’m also really excited about my last minute decision to swap out the Ravens (13 points) for the Saints (3 points). Thank you, New Orleans DT! I guess it could be worse. I could have been one of the five teams that failed/forget to get a lineup in. Shame on you, guys. Shame on you. I can also take some solace that I beat Anthony Stalter (“Against the Spread”). Eat it, Anthony! Looking ahead, the Packers seemingly have a nice passing matchup with the Falcons, while the Falcons have tough matchups all around. The Pats have been playing better pass defense of late, so it’s not necessarily a good idea to start any of the Jets, though the New England rush defense is still having some issues. Baltimore/Pittsburgh could be an ugly fantasy battle while Chicago/Seattle could have a few fantasy stars, at least on the Bears’ side of the ball. Fantasy Points Per Target: WRs A few days ago, I calculated the fantasy points per touch for the running back position, and today I’m looking at fantasy points per target for wide receivers. It’s important to note that not all targets are the same. A wideout will register a target if a QB throws the ball in his direction, so it really doesn’t matter if the ball goes off the receiver’s hands or if it sails 10 feet over his head. Generally speaking, the better the QB, the better the quality of targets his receivers will see, so all else being equal, fantasy owners should usually take the WR with the better QB. (But we knew that already, right?)
A few takeaways: - These numbers don’t include a point per reception, so they’ll skew more towards the big play, TD-heavy wideouts. I also limited the scope of the table to those receivers who saw at least 80 targets. Of the players who were targeted 30-79 times, a few names stand out: Kenny Britt (1.80 FP per target), Austin Collie (1.57), Ben Obomanu (1.50), Malcom Floyd (1.40) and Dez Bryant (1.26) would have likely finished in the Top 20 in FP/T had they stayed healthy. Jerome Simpson (1.90) was only targeted 24 times, but obviously did a lot (20-277-3) with those looks. - Mike Wallace is explosive. If he gets his targets into the 120+ range, he’d have a great shot at becoming fantasy’s top WR. Wallace saw 4.8 targets through the first four games (with Ben Roethlisberger suspended) and 6.6 targets over the final 12 games, with Big Ben under center, so his final 2010 numbers may be a little depressed.
Q: Can you tell us a little about your site, The Scores Report, and how you got started in the fantasy business? John: The Scores Report is a national sports blog. We cover all the major sports, but my focus is on fantasy football during the NFL season, and then my focus turns to the NBA and college basketball once the season is over. I started writing for Bullz-Eye in 2005 and shortly thereafter began covering fantasy football on BE and then on The Scores Report. Q: Can you briefly describe your process for coming up with your player projections/rankings? John: I have an engineering background, so statistics play a big role in my rankings. I calculate strength of schedule each week, and use matchups to put my rankings together. I don’t do player-specific projections, at least not yet, so my rankings probably have more “feel” than some of the more math-driven rankings that are out there. This allows me to create rankings that reflect my own opinion on each player, including the level of trust that each player has earned. In other words, if a player is a risky start but has considerable upside, I generally won’t rank them ahead of a solid start with little upside. If I have one player ranked ahead of another, it almost always means that I would personally start them in that order as well. I wouldn’t want to advise my readers to start someone that I wouldn’t start myself under the same circumstances. |
Last week, I finished a (miserable) second-to-last in 
Last week, I suggested to our readers that they enter PlayoffBlitz’s playoff fantasy contest and the (playoff) Week 1 results are in.
Late last week, FantasyPros announced that I was 
