I know there are many owners heading into drafts over the next few weekends, so I’m going to endeavor to update the position rankings every Friday through the weekend before the season starts.

Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends

I just added Mike Williams to my list of sleeper WRs:

The reviews have been rave for the rookie out of Syracuse. He has already won the starting split end job and has impressed Peter King, Pete Prisco and even Adam Schefter, who says that Williams “has star written all over him.” Now it’s important to keep in mind that Williams is a rookie, but when a player is impressing this much for a team in desperate need of a playmaker at WR, fantasy owners should take notice. I’d definitely look to draft Williams in the later rounds, but don’t wait too long.

Just the fact that Williams is the Bucs’ WR1 gives him a certain amount of value. Throw in the rave reviews from this summer and we have a very interesting pick once the 10th round arrives.

Chris Wesseling of Rotoworld has released updated carry projections for the entire AFC, but let’s focus on five teams: the Chiefs, Texans, Colts, Bills and Raiders.

We’ll go one by one:

Jamaal Charles: 220
Thomas Jones: 140
Kestahn Moore: 30

Charles emerged as the Chiefs’ MVP last year, averaging 20 carries and 121 rushing yards once hit he the starting lineup at mid-season. The projection above accounts for Jones in slightly more than a Willis McGahee-type short-yardage/inside role, giving Charles just under 14 carries per contest. Throw in three receptions per week and it’s enough to leave Charles as a borderline RB1.

Obviously, these numbers disregard the fact that TJ is still atop the depth chart and the head coach is telling the press that Charles’s role is ‘undefined.’ While it would seem incomprehensible to fantasy owners that Haley would limit Charles’s touches given how well he played last season, the news out of KC should not be ignored. TJ has been overlooked everywhere he’s went and while I’m hoping for a 60/40 split like we see here, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s more 50/50.

Arian Foster: 215
Steve Slaton: 125
Jeremiah Johnson: 20
Chris Henry: 10

The line for now trendy Foster love starts behind Rotoworld. We were hyping the former Tennessee star as a Dynasty deep sleeper once the Texans snatched him up after last year’s draft while promoting him as the potential answer in Houston by mid-November. Although Ben Tate’s season-ending broken fibula has killed Foster’s sleeper potential for this year, it certainly offers more clarity in this backfield: Foster is Batman; Slaton is Robin. Draft accordingly.

I didn’t jump on the Foster bandwagon until earlier this summer, but with Tate’s injury, he looks like he should vastly outplay his current draft position (9.02 over the last week). Look for his ADP to continue to rise. I’d start thinking about picking him in the 7th or the 8th. He played very well at the end of last season, has drawn rave reviews from the coaching staff this summer, and it’s clear that the team doesn’t view Slaton as a feature back any longer.

Read the rest of this entry »

Originally published 8/27/09
Updated 8/16/10

Snake drafts are simple, easy to understand and organized.

Auctions are not.

They are haphazard and chaotic, and that’s part of what makes them so much fun.

Want Chris Johnson? He’s yours…if you’re willing to pay. You’re not beholden to a certain draft slot or to the whim of the guy picking in front of you. It’s your team and the decisions you make will completely shape your roster, for good or for bad.

Auctions come in all shapes and sizes, but for the past couple of seasons I’ve played in one where each team has a $400 salary cap and a roster of 20 players. It’s a slow online auction. Every day, each owner is responsible for nominating one player along with an opening bid, which can’t be seen by the other owners in the league. Bidding is open for 24 hours, unless the high bidder changes, in which case the clock is reset. At any particular time there might be 20 or 30 players up for bidding, but the slow format gives owners plenty of time to consider their options.

I generally budget 85-90% of my total cap for my starters. This way, I have already accounted for some extra funds to acquire some cheap backups in the later part of the auction. This might seem like a lot to spend on your starters, but these are the guys that are playing week in and week out, so it’s smart to put the vast majority of your resources to that end.

Last year, I ended up with Tony Romo ($14, very smart), Adrian Peterson ($111, smart), Brian Westbrook ($71, dumb), Larry Fitzgerald ($84, smart), Brandon Marshall ($21, very smart), Steve Smith 2.0 ($11, very smart), Owen Daniels ($10, smart until he went down) and Marshawn Lynch ($30, very dumb), with Jason Elam ($2) and the Eagles ($3) rounding out my starting lineup. My backups weren’t great, but I snagged Tim Hightower for $8 and Eli Manning for $6. I also had the Jets for $3.

Hightower stepped in for Westbrook when he went down, and this team cruised until I lost Daniels to a knee injury. I spent the next three weeks trying to replace him, trading away some depth and burning all of my bidding bucks in the process. I ended up taking third place after losing in the semis.

When approaching an auction there are two prevailing strategies to consider when bidding on players:

Read the rest of this entry »

Fantasy football drafts are starting to ramp up, and we’re here to answer your questions about who to keep, which players to target and anything else that might be troubling you.

Fire away.

Per the Houston Chronicle…

Tate suffered a broken ankle in the 19-16 preseason loss at Arizona. He’s expected to undergo surgery on Tuesday.

Tate, the second-round pick from Auburn, was third team behind Foster and Slaton. Kubiak wanted to see him play for two quarters against the Cardinals. Tate was injured at the end of a 12-yard run when he was tackled by rookie linebacker Daryl Washington.

Tate will be placed on injured reserve.

I was already a fan of Arian Foster this summer, but with Tate out, I like his chances even more. Here’s what I wrote in my sleeper RBs piece.

Of everyone on this list, Foster could very well turn out to be the best value if things break his way. Houston’s offensive line is decent, and Foster had a couple of nice games late last season — 19 carries, 97 yards, TD versus Miami and 23 touches, 145 yards, 2 TD against New England — giving him some momentum heading into 2010. His head coach called the 23-year-old ‘mature beyond his years’ and says he’ll be tough to unseat atop the Texans’ depth chart. Meanwhile, rookie Ben Tate ‘has a long way to go’ while Steve Slaton is spending time in camp working on his kick return skills. This points to Foster as the opening day starter. As long as he doesn’t fumble away the job, Foster’s ADP is bound to move into the middle rounds as the preseason wears on.

With Tate out, I’m now targeting Foster in the 7th or the 8th round. He should make a solid third RB and could be a RB2 in a pinch in a flex league that only requires two RB starters. Kubiak lost confidence in Slaton last season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Foster crack the top 20 assuming he stays healthy and doesn’t start coughing up the ball.

Here’s a quick look:

I tend to shy away from Randy Moss on draft day, mainly due to the reputation that he earned in Oakland of being a malcontent. But the Raiders will make anyone a little crazy, right?

After watching some video of how he spent his summer, I’m definitely considering taking him in the late first/early second.

Tim Martin, who has trained Moss the past eight years and is the innovator of the workout, believes the Patriots receiver doesn’t get enough credit for how well he’s maintained his body over time, and how hard he’s worked to stay at the top of his game.

“Yeah, he is very talented, but he outworks 99 percent of the NFL,” said Martin, when reached by phone last week. “I heard Jerry Rice talk about how hard Larry Fitzgerald works. I’ve seen his workout … if people take a look at what myself and Randy do, you’ll see a lot of things you don’t see other people doing. I’d put our regimen up against anyone else’s.”

During camp, Moss has had that quick first step and extra gear, particularly on the long bomb routes, as he’s easily beaten many of the younger corners, Darius Butler and Devin McCourty. The past few days during the joint practice sessions with New Orleans, he also made the Saints secondary look slow.

You can see highlights of his workout regimen here.

Since joining the Patriots, Moss has averaged 83-1255-15.7 in three seasons. Even if we throw out his monstrous ’07 campaign (98-1493-23), he has averaged 76-1136-12 over the last two years, and that included playing an entire season with Matt Cassel instead of Tom Brady. Brady returned in ’09 and Moss posted 83-1264-13.

If he’s healthy, and it sure looks like he is, there’s no reason to believe that he’s not capable of putting up similar numbers in 2010. This makes him an intriguing pick in the late first round/early second round as fantasy owners have to decide whether or not to go stud WR or take one of the second- or third-tier RBs that are still there.

Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve outlined my strategy for the upcoming fantasy football season in the various segments of the 2010 Fantasy Football Preview. In this post, I’ll attempt to pull them all together to provide a (somewhat) coherent strategy that you can, if you so choose, use on draft day.

Below is an overview of the various components. Note: I’m assuming this is a 12-team, TE-required PPR league.

1. Quarterback By Committee (QBBC)
This year, I am recommending that fantasy owners draft Eli Manning in the 7th round and Ben Roethlisberger in the 9th (since it looks like Roger Goodell is going to shorten his suspension to four games and in effect, raise Ben’s fantasy stock). I’m going with 7th/9th because it looks like Eli’s ADP is creeping up as the fantasy preseason wears on. If Eli goes before your pick in the 7th, then go with Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or Carson Palmer, in that order. Their schedules all mesh well with Big Ben’s.

2. Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC)
I’m targeting the Chargers in the 14th, and then using my next pick on the Patriots, Dolphins, Colts or Bears, in that order. If you miss out on the Chargers, there are various other options outlined in the DTBC piece.

3. Draft Zach Miller in the 8th round.
Here’s what I wrote about Miller in our TE preview:

Jason Campbell is in as the starter in Oakland, which means that for the first time, Miller will have a capable QB throwing the ball. Campbell loved throwing it to Chris Cooley in Washington, so Miller projects to have a nice year. He caught 37 passes over his final six games and with a solid QB under center, he should be able to build off of that success.

Of course, if Tony Gonzalez or Brent Celek somehow slip into the 8th, I’d take either over Miller, but barring that, Miller is my man in the 8th.

The rest is fill in the blanks and it largely depends on your draft position and who you like in each round. I put together the table below as an outline. Along the top you’ll see different picks (1-4, 5, 6-7, 8-12) which represents all the picks in the first round. (Note: You can see a bigger version of the table by clicking on it.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Those fantasy owners thinking about drafting Jamaal Charles in the second round should take note: The Chiefs released their first depth chart of the preseason and Thomas Jones is listed ahead of Charles.

I just spoke with Anthony Stalter and he said that owners shouldn’t read too much into this. I tend to agree, but this is a 2nd round pick we’re talking about. It’s too early to draft a guy that isn’t even listed first on his team’s depth chart. I still like Charles this year, but even if he gets 50% of the touches, it’s still not going to be enough to justify a second round pick over more defined backfields like Green Bay (Ryan Grant), San Diego (Ryan Matthews) or New Orleans (Pierre Thomas) — teams that are much better offensively and feature better-defined roles.

Charles is still worth a pick in the 3rd or the 4th and could move back into the 2nd if the reports out of camp indicate that he’ll get 60% of the carries. Right now, it looks like a timeshare. Ugh.

This quite perplexing considering Charles’ age (23) and performance down the stretch last season. He averaged 141 total yards and 1.0 TD per game over the last eight games. His is a situation to keep an eye on.

Giants beat writer Mike Garafolo of the The Star-Ledger seems to think so…

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (yes, I put him in the starter category because he’s taking all of the first reps with the starters, it seems) continues to look like his rookie self. He went off left edge and moved well, changing direction a few times. RB Brandon Jacobs looked pretty good tonight as well.

Here are the stats from last season:

Jacobs – 224 rushes, 835 yards, 5 TD; 18-184-1
Bradshaw – 163 rushes, 778 yards, 7 TD; 21-201-0

Bradshaw averaged more than a yard more per carry and only finished 40 yards behind Jacobs in total yards despite 58 fewer touches.

How you feel about this situation depends on how you feel about Jacobs’ knees. If he’s healthy, he’ll almost certainly get enough first and second down work and goal line carries to keep Bradshaw from being a bona fide fantasy RB2.

But here we are, about a month away from the season and Bradshaw appears to be pressing Jacobs for the starting job. This could be a coaching ploy to motivate Jacbos (whom Garafolo also said looked good), it could be a way to reduce Jacobs’ workload in the preseason since he’s coming off of knee surgery, or it could be an actual change to the Giants depth chart. For what it’s worth, Tom Coughlin says that the press is “too hung up on that stuff.” (Spoken like a man who doesn’t have a fantasy football draft to prepare for.)

Considering Jacobs is going a full two rounds earlier than Bradshaw (who is a nice value in the 9th), the latter would appear to be a better value given his upside. Regardless, fantasy owners who draft Jacobs in the 6th or the 7th should definitely grab Bradshaw in the 8th as insurance.