We’ve partnered with On Goal Analysis to provide in-depth NHL coverage this season. For more analysis, be sure to check out the On Goal Analysis website and the OGA Blog.

Submitted by Michael Pryor

There are two things to report on for The Scores Report submission this week. First is a quick analysis of players skating in all games for a team versus their standings points – is there a connection? And the other is the latest results for On Goal Analysis’ Playoff Qualifying Curve.

Players In All Games Versus Standings Points

If I was back in a college science class, I would properly begin a study with a hypothesis. So I offer here that I believe the more players who skate for every scheduled game, the better the overall team performance. Said another way, injuries are likely to adversely affect a team’s ability to earn the “W.”

There is no doubt the loss of an Ovechkin, Gaborik, or Kopitar with what they are providing their teams right now should produce a drop off in overall team production and ability to win games. True, teams often rise to the occasion, playing above their heads and sucking it up for their fallen comrade. The New Jersey Devils losing Martin Brodeur for most of last season is a good example. But more often than not, you are likely to see the kind of play Vancouver offered with the loss of Roberto Luongo last winter.

They used to say in that science class ‘…It is just as important to disprove a theory as it is to show you were right….’ So without further ado here are the mixed results of the comparison through games ending Sunday night, 25 October:

A few notes before the analysis:

• Team names are color-coded red for Eastern Conference and blue for Western Conference.

• The column marked “100% Pl” indicates how many players on a team have dressed for every game. While some players get benched to teach a lesson, a larger percentage have lost games for injury. When looking at these numbers remember NHL rosters have 21 skaters and two goalies at any one time.

• “Points” are points earned in the standings for Wins and OT/SOL’s as of Sunday, 25 October.

• And “Avg Pts” is the average points for all teams with the same amount of 100% Pl’s.

Analysis says my original hypothesis is just about correct. The group of teams with the highest Average Points is FLA, NYR and PIT who have all had 16 players skate in 100% of their scheduled games. (Granted, NYR and PIT raise FLA’s average with their performance.) The 17 teams who have had between 12 and 14 skaters in every game this season average as a whole 11.2 points in the standings and are the most consistent grouping of clubs. The 15 and 11 each 100% Players represent the bookends to this middling group and average between 10 and 11 standings points. And NSH, the team with less than half of the skating roster who has been present on the ice from the start averages the least points at seven.

You can call this a thin correlation this early in the season. I would offer that it begs for more scrutiny as last season, for example, SJS as the President’s trophy Winner finished the season with five players skating in 80 or more games while the NYI in last place had only two skaters that broke the 70-game mark.

OGA’s Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC)

On Goal Analysis stakes its place in the NHL’s blogosphere with the underlying premise that we can pick who will or will not be in the Playoffs as accurately and early as possible in the season. While we do not make those pre-season final predictions that many folks throw out there, we do make the calls on the fly based on team play during the season. And we did so last year with 89.7% accuracy and an average of 84 days before mathematical elimination.

We measure teams against our proprietary PQC and make the call every 10 games down that long and bumpy road that is the NHL’s regular season. As this is going to print, 22 of 30 teams have hit the 10-game mark and all will have done so by Halloween. At this point, three teams have been called Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2010 Playoffs, two more at Sharpening Skates which is just short of IN, 11 are In The Curve or right about average, and one is Dusting Off Clubs – just shy of elimination.

On Sunday, 1 November at 5:30pm EST, OGA will discuss the 10-game PQC calls in detail on their weekly JabberHockey show. You are invited to listen in and see what we know so you know who is likely to play on into late April and who is sorely lacking. You can also find out how to know WHEN OGA KNOWS versus simply at each 10-game mark. Join us on Sunday for this and other hot Hockey topics.

Did Anybody Notice…

…That 100 or more goals have been scored in the 2nd Period (350) than in any other so far this season through 27 October?

…That only 18.8% of all goals have been scored by special teams? Or how about the fact that last year special teams combined to account for a very close 18.2% of all goals scored?

…That the Colorado Andersons are kicking butt and taking names for real? We are past that point where they are merely on a streak. So unless the injury or illness bug comes swooping in, OGA is likely to be on target with a call of Chasing Stanley for them.

…That MTL is 5-0 in OTs/SOs and has one regulation win and NYI is 0-5 playing ‘Bonus Hockey’ to go with their lone, regulation victory? Does this mean NYI need only spend another $14.171M against the CAP in order to net those five points MTL did?

…That the Stanley Cup Champions once removed are in 11th place in their conference and last year’s victors 1st in theirs? Does losing four key players to trade and one key forward to injury cost that much in the standings?

We’ll be back next week with more engaging analysis of the NHL. You can catch us during the week at www.ongoalanalysis.com.

We’ve partnered with On Goal Analysis to bring our readers innovative, insightful hockey commentary throughout the season. Enjoy.

Submitted by Mike Pryor

A Note Caused By Atlanta

A 9 October blog by Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal Constitution caught my eye. Within, he indicated Thrashers’ coach John Anderson statement that, while the team had been outshot in its first two games, they are being more ‘…shot selective….’ This selectivity had actually produced 10 goals on 50 shots, or a scoring rate of 20%.

It made me wonder what are all teams’ scoring percentages in terms of goals divided by SOG, and how would that project over 82 games. Based on games ending on Saturday, 10 October, I came up with this:

While the numbers are interesting, there are some anomalies to point out what with it being early in the season and all. First is that the average number of projected goals over 82 games this season (‘Proj Gs’) is about 6.2% higher than last year. That sounds great! Were it not for the eight teams projected with 300+, and five teams with totals in the 100’s, I would think we are going to gleefully be witnessing more red lights. The truth is we are more likely to see those numbers even out amongst the clubs as the season wears on (last year, there were NO teams with 300 goals and only one in the 100’s) and any increase in scoring being more in the 1-2% range if it actually occurs.

Despite this being the early part of the season are a few other noteworthy facts. ATL’s 10 goals / 50 SOGs = 20% scoring percentage calculation is no longer valid after Saturday night. The highest percentage team on that chart is CGY at 15.5% or one goal in every 6 – 7 SOG. ATL is right behind with a 15.39% rate, but is now under that 20% that started me thinking. Still, it kinda sucks to play the Flames and face 35 shots, eh?

On the other side of the coin, however, you have BUF with a paultry 3.45% scoring percentage. Could it be the youngsters they have playing? Sabres’ line combinations? Something is amiss, here.

But when the average number of SOG per team and per game was 30.27 after Saturday night, that means CGY outscores BUF 5 – 1. Shoot – it means EVERYONE outscores BUF. Just not in regulation, right? I love irony. I also know this scoring rate bares watching throughout the season.

The On Goal Analysis (Proprietary) Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC)

On Goal Analysis came into existence touting its PQC. The PQC is a numerical measurement of the minimum effort a team must exert to qualify for the #8 seed in either the Eastern or Western Conference by season’s end. We measure the PQC nightly, producing our Daily Tip In Report (DTIR), and providing you with the IN- or OUT-of-the-Playoffs call every 10-games for each team. (The DTIR tells you the IN or OUT call the morning after it occurs, however, instead of waiting for each 10-game segment to conclude and the team status blog to post on our site.)

So what can the PQC tell us about the season we have just barely begun?

How about our notes that:

• Eight teams will NOT be eliminated from Playoff contention by Game 10 so far;
• While six teams will NOT clench a Playoff berth by Game 10

‘So what?’ you might ask? There’s 77 or more games still to be played this season. THERE’S PLENTY OF TIME.

Is there? Don’t forget that the margin of error between the 8th and 9th seeds in the two Conferences for all years since The Lockout is a trifling 1.5 games. One Win and an OT/SO loss – that’s all.

And how about the fact that OGA predicted the Rangers, Red Wings and Sharks to be Chasing Stanley – IN the Playoffs – before the end of OCTOBER 2008 and the Islanders at Tee Time – OUT of the post-season – on 1 NOVEMBER of last season? With an overall measurement of accuracy at 89.7% and an average of 84 days before mathematical elimination, we strive to prove that we are watching the NHL closer than the rest.

Who are the 14 teams we mention above? Visit the OGA Store and subscribe to the DTIR so you will know what we know.

How Are They Playing?

We are only two weeks into the season, but there are already some interesting notes about team play at this juncture. Here is what we have found about teams compared to their Game 1 – 5 play since The Lockout:

Best of the EAST
o PIT is sitting with their best start
o One more Win by Game 5 gives the NYI, OTT and TBL their best start

Worst of the East
o This is MTL’s worst start in five seasons
o CAR and WSH are off to their second worst start

Best in the WEST
o CGY and CBJ off to their best start
o With one game to go, LAK and PHX are tied with their best start
o CHI’s start could be their best-at-five with a Win on MONDAY, 12 OCTOBER

Worst in the West
o DET cannot equal its average 5-game start this season
o In one more game MIN and VAN will be at their worst start

And a separate note for Ottawa Senators’ fans. Did you miss Saturday night’s game? More specifically, the response when sophomore Zach Bogosian leveled Sens’ Captain Daniel Alfredsson? The clean but hard, open ice check brought no less than three Senators swarming on Bogosian. Kuddos here for Bogosian, who a few seconds earlier was dumped on his caboose, not being nervous amongst those veterans and going for a statement of his own. But you have to say the same about the Senators who at times over the last few seasons would not necessarily have done that. Could it be those persistently onerous locker room issues flew out west when training camp opened? Time will tell, but it’s not looking bad from our seat down (south) here.

Finally, What Is Going On Out In The Desert?

On Sunday, 11 October, OGA’s JabberHockey show on BlogTalkRadio interviewed Odin Mercer of SB Nation’s “Five For Howling” blog following the Phoenix Coyotes.

A born-and-raised Phoenixian, Odin Mercer brings an interesting perspective to the entire Phoenix situation that is not as well publicized as what the NHL or Mr. Ballsilie said in court on any given day. He speaks about: how “Five For Howling” came to be in the blogosphere; the home opening ‘White Out’ and what constitutes good value for a Coyotes’ ticket; long-term viability of the Coyotes in Phoenix; and how deep the grass roots of Hockey are out west.
Perhaps the most interesting answers begin to flow when the conversation centers on viability of the Coyotes in the Phoenix market. The situation is not necessarily what we have all been led to believe in what we have read around the trial transcripts.

We think the interview is well worth the listen. You can catch in on the JabberHockey archive player at www.ongoalanalysis.com to the left side of page center.

That’s all for now. We will have more throughout the week in the blogosphere and wholeheartedly encourage everyone to spend their free time doing what we all like best: (playing and) watching The Great Game.

Keep those sticks on the ice…

We’ve partnered with On Goal Analysis to provide in-depth NHL coverage this season. Here is a look at the weekend’s game and a look ahead at this week’s action. For more analysis, be sure to check out the On Goal Analysis website and the OGA Blog.

It is time for a short post on some keys things we noticed this first weekend of the new hockey season and what to look for next week.

A short weekend…

…but an exciting and interesting one. At this point in the season, it is not worth getting too worked up while watching your team play. But if they were not winning, the time to wring hands is fast approaching. Because On Goal Analysis’ proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve is not yet ready to determine who will or will not be in the 2010 playoffs, this week’s primary post focus is on some of the interesting storylines from the first three days and nights of the new Hockey season.

The first note we caught was the President’s Trophy winner, runner up and No.3 team ALL losing their season openers. BOS recovered somewhat by going 1-1 with a HUGE 7-2 second game win over CAR. SJS did likewise with a Game #2 win in ANA. But DET starts 2-0 with 1/3 of games against STL down the tubes. Will this come back to haunt the Red Wings in any way? Shaken confidence and increased frustration are likely by-products here. This team has a mere four days to travel home and practice before receiving CHI at home, a club that took three-of-four points home from the European openers.

We also found several points where science kicked in to display the thought theory that ‘Nature Seeks Equilibrium.’

• The No. 1, undefeated pre-season team (VAN) starts 0-2, both loses within the Division. Might this skew things out of their favor come the end of the season? Especially when the difference between the 8th and 9th seeds since the Lockout has averaged 1.5 games? We shall see…

• The team picked to be No. 15 in the West (COL) and 30th overall in many pre-season polls begins the season 2-0 with two, convincing victories by an average of three goals. That Wojtek Wolski fella is on a roll.

• PIT, pacing themselves in pre-season with only one W are 2-0 to start defense of their Cup victory in games against the two NY’s.

We also were watching the top five 2009 Entry Draft prospects currently active with their clubs this past weekend and their efforts:

• John Tavares’ first Goal came against the defending Stanley Cup champions on home ice. In fact, 1-1 for 2 points on the first two Islanders’ goals of the season.

• Victor Hedman chipped in 1 Assist in TBL’s season opening loss to ATL.

• Matt Duchene has 1 Assist after two COL victories.

• Evander Kane provided 1 Assist in ATL’s opening night victory over TBL

• Dmitry Kulikov has 0 points in two games so far for FLA, but he has not register a SOG as of yet – he needs to start scoring or he is likely to be sent back down for more experience.

It was difficult not to note that CGY begins the new season 2-0 against the Northeast Division. CGY’s lead-off win was the first season opener they have won since The Lockout. Interestingly, they are 3-0-2 in Game #2’s in that same time span.

And unfortunately, key injuries have already begun to surface since the season began:

• CAR’s Eric Cole suffered a fracture in his lower left leg and will be out of commission 4-6 weeks. It sounds like a country song for the oft injured Cole, but doesn’t play well at all.

• MTL’s Andrei Markov lacerated the tendon in his ankle. Reports are that the Canadiens leading defensive scorer will be out four months. MTL also lost Centerman Glen Metropolit and Defenseman Ryan O’Byrne in the same period Saturday night. Is this the harbinger of things to come for MTL this season? It has been many a team’s undoing for a season.

• NSH’s J.P. Dumont was knocked out of the game against DAL on Saturday night after a hard check into the boards. To be determined is whether or not he has a concussion as his head struck the dasher, but some precautionary rest may ensue.

• TBL’s Kurtis Foster left the ATL game early with a dreaded ‘undisclosed lower body injury.’ Early reports indicate it is not serious, but it limited him to a bit over 2 minutes in TBL’s opener.

And next week…

There are a two categories of note reference this next week’s games. First is a note about Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC)-centric matchups (read the Tao of OGA for an explanation of the PQC). And second is key matchups for the emotional, physical, and therefore, entertainment value of the game.

PQC-centric measurements include five Eastern and two Western Conference teams who will hit the halfway point of the PQC’s first 10-game furlong of the season. In the Eastern Conference this is CAR (at TBL), MTL (at EDM), PHI (versus ANA), PIT (at TOR) and WSH (at DET). Out in the Western Conference, it is CGY (versus DAL) and SJS (versus MIN).

While the first half of the lead furlong has never predicted a team IN or OUT of the playoffs as far as the PQC is concerned, it might be an indicator to watch those seven teams’ next three games closely. The OGA staff might be able to have an early tell as to whether or not any of the teams are starting so well or so poorly that they get the early IN or OUT call. You can follow this analysis by going to the OGA Store at and hooking your season-long subscription to the Daily Tip-In Report.

There are several key matchups this week. Chronologically speaking, they are:

Monday, 5 October for the first NYR at NJD’s great, sorta-cross-town rivalry contest of the season. (For a recap of the game, click here.)

Tuesday, 6 October, Friday, 9 October and Saturday, 10 October are three intra-divisional games in a row for CAR after opening the season 0-2.

Tuesday, 6 October’s OTT @ TOR tilt because it is another, great all-Canadian rivalry.

Tuesday, 6 October and Wednesday, 7 October are MTL’s back-to-back road games at fellow Canadian teams CGY and VAN.

Thursday, 8 October is a huge night:

• CGY @ EDM because the battle of Alberta is always an emotional thing.
• CHI @ DET as the third, intra-divisional game the Red Wings have played AND if lost, out will come the pundits for DET’s chances this season.
• COL @ NSH to see if the Avalanche’s first two games were an anomaly or not.
• NYR @ WSH as the first meeting since the Rangers’ Game 7 Eastern Conference semi-finals ouster and Donald Brashear against his old teammates.
• PIT @ PHI as the Pennsylvania turnpike series heats up for the season.

And finally, Saturday, 10 October for two contests:

• ANA @ PHI for two reasons. First is that they will be somewhat fatigued playing in their third game in five nights on the road. The main reason people will watch this game is because it will be Chris Pronger taking on his old team for the first time.
• PHX vs CBJ to see the crowd turnout at the Coyotes’ home opener
All in all, a value-added week of NHL play is on the buffet for your grazing pleasure. The local grocery should have a good run on chips and beer because the NHL and NHL fans support their local economy.

We’ll be back next week with some engaging analysis of the NHL. You can catch us during the week at www.ongoalanalysis.com.