In his latest column, Simmons rails on those that defend Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th-and-2 against the Patriots Sunday night. First, he skewers the idea that it was statistically the right move. Then he questions the assumption that the Colts would have scored had the Pats punted. After that, he questions a few other justifications for Belichick’s decision. The whole thing is a good read, but here’s the meat of his conclusion…
Did it feel like the end of an era? Yeah, a little. The truth is, Belichick is 57 years old. I doubt he’s banking those famous 19-hour work days anymore. I doubt he possesses the same hunger that fueled him when he was trying to escape Bill Parcells’ shadow and make a name for himself. Everything is gravy for him at this point. His place in history is secure.
Career security can be damaging in one of two ways: either you stop taking chances, or you feel emboldened and start taking too many of them. Belichick’s recent history shows that he would rather roll the dice than do something conventionally. He made so many trades in the draft this past April that I can’t even remember where we ended up picking. Right before the season, with the Patriots picked by many as the clear Super Bowl favorite, he dealt one of his defensive pillars (Richard Seymour) to Oakland for a future first-round pick. On Sunday night, he went for the jugular in Indianapolis when the situation demanded prudence.
There is a time for statistics and a time for common sense. And on the road, up six, facing a 4th-and-2 on your own 28 yard-line? That’s a time for common sense.
Indianapolis had only one timeout, so a first down would have all but won the game. On the night, the Patriots had averaged 6.6 yards per play, so the chance of gaining 2 yards was auspicious. As Tim Graham of ESPN.com has noted, since Tom Brady became New England’s starting quarterback, the Patriots have converted 76 percent of their fourth-and-short attempts. A 3-in-4 chance to win is a pretty inviting opportunity.
Which seems like a better gamble — 2 yards to win the game, or two minutes to shut down Peyton Manning when the Colts are hot? In 2007, AccuScore did thousands of computer simulations of the punt-or-go-for-it question for TMQ. One finding was that between your own 21-yard line and your own 35, you should go for it on fourth-and-2 or less. In test after test, doing this improved a team’s chance of victory — though, of course, there is no guarantee. No coach can control what happens on the field. Had New England punted, Indianapolis might have run the kick back for a touchdown, for instance. All the coach can do is make a decision that improves the team’s odds. Belichick made such a decision.
Two things to note:
1. While the Pats did average 6.6 yards per play on the night, they only averaged 2.8 yards per play in their final three possessions (not including Faulk’s 1-yard catch). The New England offense wasn’t as productive in the fourth quarter as it was during the first three.
2. While Brady may own a 76% success rate on fourth down, during those last three drives, just six of the preceding 16 plays (38%) went for more than two yards. That didn’t bode well for the Pats’ 4th-and-2.
I have no problem with computer simulations, but there is something about a 4th-and-whatever with the game on the line that can’t be quantified. Emotions are higher and everyone tightens up. It becomes tougher to execute. Officials are less likely to call a penalty, thinking that unless it’s obvious, players should decide the outcome (especially when the home crowd isn’t going to like your call).
Belichick’s reasoning is understandable. Tom Brady is his best player and he’d rather have the ball in his hands then punt it to Peyton Manning, who just made short work of his tired defense on the previous possession. Had Faulk caught the ball cleanly, we’d all be talking about how gutsy (and brilliant?) it was to go for the first down to win the game.
But it didn’t work out, and Belichick is left with egg on his face.
Eleven first downs, 160 total yards and zero points.
After two weeks to prepare for their opposition, that’s what the Cleveland Browns produced on Monday night in a 16-0 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
Nobody should be surprised by the outcome of Monday night’s game in Cleveland. Everyone knew that the Browns were awful entering the game, but to actually watch that miserable excuse of a team stumble over themselves for 60 minutes is rather amazing. It’s like a car wreck – you just can’t look away.
Brady Quinn is bad, so bad that it’s safe to say that he has zero chance of becoming anything resembling a decent starting quarterback in the NFL. I’m fully aware that he has no talent around him, but I dare anyone to watch that kid play for entire game and tell me he has any shot of success in this league. His own coaching staff doesn’t trust him to throw the ball further than two feet and I wouldn’t either. The Monday Night Football crew kept begging for the Browns to throw the ball vertically and whenever Quinn did, he was either picked off or was so far off the mark with his passes that there wasn’t a receiver within 20 yards of where the ball ended up.
Again, I know that he doesn’t have anyone to throw to but there’s just no excuse for being that inept. The Browns didn’t even reach the Ravens’ 40-yard line tonight and don’t forget that this was a Baltimore defense that has struggled at times this year stopping the pass. On multiple occasions late in the game when he was trying to make a feeble attempt at throwing deep, Quinn tossed the ball completely out of bounds. That means he’s so inaccurate with his throws that he can’t even keep the ball in play. He even overthrew a receiver on a screen pass, which is so mind-boggling that it pisses me off just thinking about it.
Following the Titans’ 41-17 win over the Bills on Sunday, Tennessee owner Bud Adams was seen giving the middle finger to Buffalo’s sidelines from his owner’s box.
Adams apologized in a statement, saying: “I need to apologize for my actions yesterday near the end of the game. I got caught up in the excitement of a great day, but I do realize that those types of things shouldn’t happen. I need to specifically apologize to the Bills, their fans, our fans and the NFL.
“I obviously have a great deal of respect for [Bills owner] Ralph Wilson and the history we have shared. I also understand there will probably be league discipline for my actions and I will accept those.”
Here’s the video:
Hey, whatever. The man is 86-years old – he can do whatever the hell he wants.
Don’t tell me that you have never wanted to give the middle finger to the Buffalo Bills at least once in your lifetime.
Growing up, many of us were told: “Never say never.”
But F-that – JaMarcus Russell will never succeed in the NFL, period.
During the Raiders’ putrid effort in a 16-10 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday, Oakland head coach Tom Cable benched Russell after the quarterback completed just nine of his 24 pass attempts for 67 yards. It was a typical Sunday outing for Russell, filled with accuracy issues, a complete disregard for pocket awareness and zero signs of being prepared.
After the game, Cable refused to commit to Russell as his starting quarterback moving forward and who could blame him? The former first overall pick’s 47.1 completion percentage and 5.5 YPA both rank him 30th in the NFL and he also has a 2:9 touchdown to interception ratio this season. He’s horrible, horrendous – awful.
But numbers aside, Russell will never succeed in this league because he doesn’t care. He misses open receivers and then he stands on the sidelines acting like he’s rotating in and out of a touch football game at a family barbecue. He has zero passion, zero emotion and I wonder if the guy truly even wants to play football or if he just has the occupation because he can throw a ball 70-plus yards.
- Jake Delhomme (195 yards, 2 TD) was surprisingly solid, tossing two TD to Steve Smith in the first half. When the Panthers have their running game going, it takes the pressure off their QB.
- Matthew Stafford (224 yards, TD) should be pretty good down the stretch since the Lions will be playing from behind most weeks.
- Surprisingly, David Garrard (221 yards, TD, rush TD) had a pretty nice day against a good Jets pass defense.
- Vince Young (210 yards, TD, INT) continues to play well. He made several nice throws and also had 29 yards rushing.
- Philip Rivers (231 yards, 2 TD) continues to play well, even against good defenses like the Eagles’.
- Donovan McNabb (450 yards, 2 TD, INT) threw the ball 55 times. The Eagles ran the ball 13 times. Now that’s some balance.
- Neither Brian Westbrook (6 carries, 28 yards) nor LeSean McCoy (3 carries, 5 yards) did much in the ground game against a suspect Chargers rush defense. Westbrook suffered his second concussion in as many games and it looks like he will be out for a prolonged period, and there is speculation that his career may even be over.
- Michael Turner (9 carries, 111 yards) had a great first half, but left the game with what was being described as a high ankle sprain. If that’s the case, he’ll be out a while and Jason Snelling (21 touches, 93 yards, TD) will fill in for the time being.
- Ronnie Brown (14 touches, 98 yards, TD) left the game with an ankle injury. Ricky Williams (22 touches, 107 yards) will get the lion’s share of the carries if Brown misses any time.
- Predictably, Adrian Peterson (18 carries, 133 yards, 2 TD) had a great day against Detroit.
- Maurice Jones-Drew (26 touches, 145 yards, TD) would have had another TD, but he took a knee on the two-yard line in order to set up a game-winning field goal for his team. It was a smart play, but frustrating for his fantasy owners.
- Cedric Benson (7 carries, 22 yards) left the game with a hip injury. Bernard Scott (14 touches, 54 yards) took over.
- Rashard Mendenhall (13 carries, 36 yards) struggled against a pretty good Bengals rush defense.
- Reggie Bush (8 touches, 98 yards, 2 TD) had a big game against the Saints. Pierre Thomas (12 touches, 38 yards) had a quiet day.
- Roddy White (7-98) was questionable coming into the game, but finished with good PPR numbers.
- Steve Smith (4-34-2) was injured on his second TD catch and wasn’t targeted at all in the second half.
- Maurice Stovall (4-47-1) has caught seven passes for 93 yards and a TD in the last two weeks.
- Sidney Rice (7-201) absolutely destroyed the Lions.
- Jerricho Cotchery (6-68-1) looked good. It wasn’t clear what the pecking order would be with Braylon Edwards (3-79), but Cotch got 11 targets while Edwards had six.
Bill Belichick is a genius. In fact, he’s so much of a genius that he cost his team a win on Sunday night by making one of the dumbest decisions by a head coach in quite some time.
The Patriots absolutely dissected the Colts for 58 minutes tonight. Tom Brady threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns on 29-of-42 passing, while Randy Moss (nine catches, 179 yards, 2 TDs) and Wes Welker (nine catches, 94 yards) abused an injury-riddled, inexperienced secondary on their way to taking a 31-14 fourth quarter lead.
Then Peyton Manning worked his magic to cut Indy’s deficit to 34-28 with just over two minutes remaining. But all the Patriots had to do was pick up two first downs (something they had done with ease the entire night) on their ensuing possession and put the Colts away for good. Instead, Indy’s defense rose to the challenge and stopped the Pats on a 3rd and 2 from New England’s 28-yard line to force a punt.
Or what everyone thought would be a punt, that is.
Instead of punting and making Manning drive the length of the field, Belichick decided to call a time out (the second of the drive) and go for it on fourth down. What ensued was a 1-yard catch by Kevin Faulk, a controversial spot of the ball and a turnover on downs for New England. Four plays later, Manning found Reggie Wayne for a 1-yard touchdown pass to give the Colts a stunning 35-34 victory.
Now, I don’t fault Belichick for being who he is: An aggressive decision-maker and a coach that not only likes to beat his opponent, but rip their soul out of their bodies and do a tap dance number on it. That’s who he is and that’s what he does. He’s won multiple Super Bowls with that strategy and he’s not going to change his philosophy now.
But the problem with that strategy in this case is that it just wasn’t a smart football decision. Belichick has to punt the football and trust his defense in that situation by forcing Manning to drive the length of the field to win. There’s nothing wrong with being aggressive, but that was just a flat out stupid decision by a head coach that knows better.
Granted, if the Patriots picked up that first down and never gave the ball back to Manning, everyone would be lauding Belichick’s fearless style. I get that, and I don’t want to lose sight of that fact because the media can be two-faced in scenarios like these. And in Belichick’s defense, with the way his offense had been moving the ball all night, gaining a first down on 4th and 2 must have seemed like a lock and why give the ball back to Manning after he just carved up your defense the previous two drives?
But the Patriots didn’t pick up that first down and there was really no reason not to punt the football in that situation. It wasn’t like they were at midfield – they were at their own 28-yard line and if their gamble didn’t work, Belichick had to have known he was handing a win over to the Colts. Furthermore, for Belichick to burn two timeouts before making that decision and leaving himself without the option to stop the clock had his offense not picked up the first down was just as stupid.
I’ve never seen a team dominate like the Patriots did for 58 minutes, only to lose on a decision like that. New England will surely rebound and I wouldn’t doubt it if we saw these same two teams play in the AFC Championship Game in the same stadium. But nevertheless, this was an awful decision by Belichick and he cost his team tonight.
