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NBA Rumors: Grizzlies’ quandary, Blazers want Hinrich, and more

Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard has been actively working the phones, as usual.

The Blazers have been making inquiries all over the first round. Their main target has been Pittsburgh’s DeJuan Blair, a burly power forward who plays with a toughness the Blazers lack and coach Nate McMillan would appreciate.

However, Sunday night, there was talk Pritchard has even grander plans. With point guard Ricky Rubio possibly slipping out of the top four, the Blazers are talking to the Wizards about acquiring the No. 5 pick.

There’s no question Pritchard also is trying to figure out a way to get maximum cap room this summer to use for a free agent or in a trade. The Magic’s Hedo Turkoglu gets the most mention, but sources say Portland’s real target is Bulls point guard Kirk Hinrich.

Portland drafted Jerryd Bayless last year, but he didn’t have a very good rookie season, and head coach Nate McMillan would like Pritchard to steer clear of drafting another rookie. Hinrich would be a great fit. He’s relatively cheap (three years, $26.5 million remaining), experienced, and is a good defender.

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Is Jennings’ stock taking a hit?

Brandon Jennings has changed his mind about working out for a few teams recently, and it may be due to concerns that he’s going to slip in next week’s draft.

In New Jersey, after avoiding the Nets for weeks, Brandon Jennings is expected to join a group for a workout Saturday. The Star-Ledger reports the reason for the about-face is, as one scout said, that Jennings is “sliding like a five-year-old in the park.” More evidence of a fall for Jennings comes from Phoenix, where The Arizona Republic reports Jennings will work out for the Suns, who hold the 14th pick.

I called Jennings “the wild card” a few weeks ago, and it seems like he has one of the biggest ranges in the draft. He could go as early as #3 or #4, or he could slip to the mid-teens (or further). The point guard depth in this draft is excellent, but the teams at the bottom of the lottery aren’t necessarily in the market. Toronto (#9) has Jose Calderon, New Jersey (#11) has Devin Harris, Charlotte (#12) has Ray Felton and D.J. Augustin. Indiana (#13) and Phoenix (#14) could go with a point guard, but Detroit (#15) and Chicago (#16) likely will look to fill other needs.

With six or seven guards vying for four or five picks in the top 10, someone is going to slip to Indiana or Phoenix in the middle of the round. I wouldn’t be surprised if Philadelphia has a shot at a good guard at #17.

NBA Rumors: Rubio, Boozer, T-Mac and more

Chad Ford writes about why Ricky Rubio is being so selective in his workouts.

First of all, the idea that Rubio is the only one doing it is silly. James Harden has only worked out for four teams. Even the Knicks couldn’t get him in. Hasheem Thabeet will likely only work out for three. DeMar DeRozan has been really selective, and so has Stephen Curry.

It’s pretty simple as to why Rubio is being selective: He is going to have to pay a lot of money for the privilege to play in the NBA next season. His buyout will cost him something between $5 and $7 million of his own money. That’s a lot of money, especially when you consider that Rubio wasn’t making a ton of dough in Spain. He essentially will be signing over his paychecks for the next couple of years to his team in Spain.

The Kings have an obvious hole at point guard on a young team. It seems to be the place his camp wants him to land. If the Kings draft him, I don’t think there’s any question that Rubio would pay the buyout and come. The question is, will the Kings draft him? I think the odds are in Rubio’s favor, but it sounds like some in the organization still need to be convinced.

Rubio’s future might depend on something he has no control over — is Russell Westbrook a point guard? A statistical study I did a few weeks ago revealed that he was turnover-prone and shoot-first, though obviously as a young rookie, there is room for improvement. If the Thunder think he’s a point guard, then I doubt they take Rubio. They’ll take James Harden, who averaged 4.2 assists during his senior year even though he was taking 13 shots per game.

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No promise was made to Monta Ellis

On his draft buzz blog [Insider subscription required], Chad Ford dispelled the notion that the Warriors made a promise to Monta Ellis not to draft a point guard at #7. He spoke with GM Larry Riley, who said that the topic never came up. In an interview with KNBR, Ellis confirmed that the meeting was about getting everyone on the same page and said that if the team drafted a point guard, he was going to “do anything to help the team win.” Riley told Ellis that if they do use him at the point, his primary responsibility will be to “get guys more involved” and help his teammates “get off.”

Riley told Ford that he would “like to have a little beef” and said that the Warriors could “use more size and toughness.” Does this mean that they’ll draft Jordan Hill at #7, if available? Probably, but Riley also said that the Warriors didn’t “have a gaping hole at any position” so that they can “draft the best player available.”

Ellis thrived at off guard playing alongside Baron Davis two seasons ago, averaging 20.2 points, 3.9 assists and 4.9 rebounds, and shot an astounding 53% from the field.

John Hollinger’s Draft Rater likes Lawson

Earlier in the day, I wrote about how Chad Ford is hearing that Ty Lawson is shooting up some draft boards, and now John Hollinger’s Draft Rater (where he takes college statistics and a few other metrics to predict a player’s production in the NBA) says that he’s the top player in this draft. Yes, he’s even ahead of Blake Griffin.

Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance in leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Although he’s short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.

The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn’t mean a team should take Lawson first. The standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as on-the-court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don’t think Lawson’s statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we’ve heard questions about Lawson’s work ethic and injuries.

But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague & Co. (If you’re wondering about Ricky Rubio, I’ll have more on him next week.)

Hollinger’s Draft Rater isn’t error-proof but it’s not a bad second opinion when trying to pick a player out of a group of two or more.

Or when you’re trying to avoid a bust…

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Jefferson-for-Stoudemire, your dumb rumor of the day

Earlier today, the Boston Globe reported that the Suns and T-Wolves were working on a trade that would send Al Jefferson and the #6 pick to Phoenix for Amare Stoudemire.

Hours later, that rumor was shot down.

An NBA source said today that Minnesota forward-center Al Jefferson is not being traded to the Suns with the sixth overall pick for Suns All-Star forward Amare Stoudemire. An NBA executive told The Globe on Wednesday that the teams discussed the trade. But another source acknowledged the discussion, but also said the Suns were quickly turned down.

This is the sort of rumor that just doesn’t pass the smell test. Forget the #6 pick, why would the T-Wolves trade Jefferson, who is already a 23/11 guy at the age of 24 and is locked into a pretty reasonable deal for four more years at the tune of $13.5 million per, for Stoudemire, a 26-year-old 21/8 guy who can opt out of his contract after the season and has already had microfracture and eye surgery in his career? I wouldn’t even make that deal straight up, much less throw in the #6 pick.

Ridiculous.

Lawson, Williams & Henderson — moving up?

On his draft buzz blog, Chad Ford lists a few guys that may crash the top 10 next week.

North Carolina’s Ty Lawson has taken some abuse during the draft workout process, but it sounds as though teams are starting to come around. Lawson was, without question, the most productive point guard in the draft. Teams are skeptical because of his size and his style of play. But he’s been great in several recent workouts according to sources and apparently is in the mix with the Knicks at No. 8 if guys like Curry and Hill are off the board. Lawson also is still on the board at No. 10 to Milwaukee and the Pacers at No. 13 and the Sixers at No. 17 are also giving him a serious look. If Lawson ends up crashing the top 10, that would probably push either Holiday or Flynn out.

Louisville’s Terrence Williams is another player who is a potential lottery crasher. The Warriors have been high on Williams all year and will seriously consider him at No. 7. And Williams also seems to have seriously moved into the mix with the Nets at No. 11 and the Bobcats at No. 12. In fact, sources say that Williams has been invited back to Charlotte for a second time. One league source says that he’s leapfrogged Duke’s Gerald Henderson on Larry Brown’s board.

The final guy to watch is Henderson, who is getting a serious look in New York, Toronto and Charlotte. In each case I think there are players ahead of him on each team’s draft boards, but under certain scenarios I think he could go 8 to 12. However, if DeMar DeRozan is on the board at No. 9, I think he’s going ahead of Henderson in Toronto. And, if the source on Williams is to be believed, it’s possible that Henderson could slide out of the lottery.

Regular readers know I’ve been high on Lawson throughout this entire process despite all the negative feelings towards his game. Given his production and performance at North Carolina, I think he’d be a steal for a team in the middle of the first round looking for a point guard. The Pacers (#13), the Sixers (#16) and the Hawks (#19) all would be good fits. I’d be surprised if he cracked the top 12, as the Bobcats (#12), the Nets (#11), the Bucks (#10) and the Raptors (#9) already have their point guards. (Though Milwaukee may be in the market if they are dumb enough to let Ramon Sessions walk.)

As for Williams, he’s not much of a scorer, but he can play defense, distribute the ball and rebound really well for a wing. I’d still take Henderson over Williams because he is just as athletic and has proved that he can improve his offensive game. Williams has the better handle and is the better passer. There is a lot of margin for error when trying to predict where these guys will go because this draft is relatively thin at shooting guard. The only true shooting guard in the top 10 is Harden. Curry, Evans and Holiday are considered to be combo guards, and DeRozan looks like a swingman. Then there are Henderson, Williams, Budinger and Ellington to round out the first round.

NBA Rumors: Bosh and Wade talk about 2010, David Lee to Portland, and more

Chris Bosh discussed Miami as a possible destination next summer.

“As of right now, I’m not sure. I like Miami, don’t get me wrong. But I don’t know what comes along with being a part of that organization. I don’t even have any friends in Miami, which was the funniest part. A close friend of mine hit me yesterday and was like ‘Hey there’s another article out’ and I was like ‘What now?’ ‘Apparently a friend in Miami said you’re going to Miami.’ He sent me the article and I read it, and I’m like, ‘now they’re just making stuff up.’”

For Heat fans, re-signing Dwyane Wade and signing Bosh would be a dream scenario next summer. The best thing Miami has going for it (other than South Beach, of course) is Wade, so if Bosh signs he better hope that Wade doesn’t pull an Elton Brand and bolt. Speaking of…

Dwyane Wade discussed his hometown of Chicago as a possible destination next summer.

“I’m not ruling out a lot of places, including Chicago, but I’m not really thinking about those places. Like I said, 2010 is the year when I will sit down and open up my options and, hopefully, I’m still blessed and healthy to have those options and then go from there. But Miami is my number one option and I’ve made that clear. That’s where I want to be and, hopefully, we can get everything right here in Miami.”

Wade is just keeping his options open. He has said repeatedly that he’d like to stay in Miami, but he’s keeping the organization’s feet to the fire by insinuating that he still might leave if the franchise is unable to surround him with good players. The Heat are projected to have significant cap space next summer, so they could conceivably sign Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire or even LeBron James.

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Brandon Jennings: ‘I’m better than Ricky Rubio.’

Brandon Jennings isn’t shy. When being interviewed by the Sacramento Bee after a workout with the Kings, Jennings had some sharp words for Ricky Rubio. [Transcript from The Sporting Blog.]

Jennings: Well, put it like this: If he was in a workout with me, Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson, Stephen Curry, he wouldn’t even probably be at the top.

Reporter: You think he’s all hype?

Jennings: Yeah.

Reporter: Because?

Jennings: Because he played in the Olympics, he been playing pro ball since he been 14, so you know, there it is right there. And you know, his stats? 26 minutes, and he be having like 16 points, 7 assists [inaudible -- sounds like he says 900] steals? Come on. Twenty-six minutes, and you have all that? So I really don’t know. I really don’t know. I can’t wait to play him, though. I’m just letting y’all know that now. I can’t wait.

Reporter: You think you should go before Ricky Ruubio in the draft?

Jennings: Yeah, I think I’m a better player than he is. I can shoot the ball better than he can. The only time I’ve seen him do something is when he has a home run pass or something. So I think the dude is all hype. I can’t even front. I’m going to be real with you guys.

Two weeks out, Rubio is still considered the top point guard in the draft, but his stock isn’t quite as high as it once was. While they love the “feel” that he has for the game, some personnel people are concerned about his overall athleticism and his suspect jumper.

Meanwhile, Jennings stock has slipped considerably since midseason largely because he got inconsistent playing time while in Italy.

Rubio is definitely more pass-first than he is shoot-first, and the opposite is true for Jennings, at least reputation-wise. Of the best point guards in the league, most are pass-first, so it’s no surprise that Rubio is favored right now.

Consensus NBA mock draft (6/12)

DraftExpress updated their mock yesterday, and NBADraft.net updated theirs today, so it’s a good time to update our consensus mock draft. DIME hasn’t finished a new mock for 11 days, so they’re out of our consensus. To see our most recent mock, click here.

There are a few headscratchers…NBADraft.net still has Holiday going at #18 despite all the reports that his stock has him going by the end of the lottery. They also have the Bucks passing on Brandon Jennings for Jeff Teague…I don’t know about that one, though there was a report that Milwaukee is high on Teague. Both DE and NBADraft.net have the Nets taking Jennings at #11, which doesn’t make much sense considering they already have Devin Harris on the roster. DE also has Harden going to the Grizzlies, who already have O.J. Mayo.

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