The short answer is “I don’t know.”

Not enough? I don’t blame you. I wrote the following during my running diary on draft day:

There’s a rumor that the Warriors might send Andris Biedrins, Marco Belinelli, Brandan Wright and the #7 pick to Phoenix for Amare Stoudemire. That seems like an awful lot to give up given the trades we’ve seen go down in recent days. But Stoudemire is a borderline franchise player, so a good center (Biedrins) and three prospects (Belinelli, Wright and the #7 pick) doesn’t seem crazy.

The Warriors drafted Stephen Curry when he fell to #7. At that point, it wasn’t clear whether or not he’d be headed to Phoenix as part of this trade. Paul Coro of AZCentral.com reported that he “likely” was headed to the Suns.

Golden State’s selection of Davidson point guard Stephen Curry at No. 7 was likely made for the Suns as part of an Amaré Stoudemire trade that can’t be completed until Wednesday. That is because Phoenix would be acquiring Warriors center Andris Biedrins, a base-year compensation player, as part of a Stoudemire deal that would include more Warriors players, possibly power forward Brandan Wright and/or shooting guard Marco Belinelli.

The Suns were hoping they could land Curry or Arizona power forward Jordan Hill with the Warriors’ seventh pick but had their choice after Minnesota took neither with its fifth and sixth picks.

The next day, Coro reported that the deal was all but done, but hinged on whether or not Curry was included…

Read the rest of this entry »

Probably the most perplexing sequence of events occurred early last night when the Minnesota Timberwolves picked Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn — two pure point guards — with back-to-back picks. My first instinct was that GM David Kahn (Kaaaaaaaaaahn!) was working out a trade for one of the guards, possibly moving Rubio to the Warriors or Knicks or some other team for a pick and/or veteran help. But then Ric Bucher popped his head in to inform us that Kahn said that he plans to play Rubio and Flynn together. Later on, Kahn mentioned a few examples of point guard duos that have played well in the past, citing Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars, Dennis Johnson and Danny Ainge, and…gulp…Michael Jordan and John Paxson.

Setting aside the Jordan/Paxson comparison for a moment, let’s look at the other two examples. DJ and Ainge were both 6′4″ combo guards and neither guy had to have the ball in his hands to be effective. I don’t think the same will be said about Rubio or Flynn (certainly not Rubio). Dumars was 6′3″ defensive stopper and deadeye shooter, while Zeke was a ball-dominant playmaker. In short, Thomas was a pure point guard, while Dumars, Ainge and DJ were combo guards. Those backcourts worked because the two players complemented each other.

But back to Jordan/Paxson — if I’m a Timberwolves fan and I hear that my general manager is referring to Michael Jordan as a point guard, I’m getting out on the ledge. MJ was a 6′6″ wing, who could do everything — handle, shoot, post up and play defense. He was more of a 2/3 who could run the point if necessary. If Kahn really thinks that he was a point guard, then that shows an alarming lack of basic knowledge about the game.

But that’s not the only reason the comparison is invalid. A general manager should not be invoking Jordan’s name when discussing his first few picks in the draft. He is arguably the greatest player ever to play the game, so it’s not fair to expect your rookies to do the same things he did. Any backcourt that featured Jordan would have worked. He was that good.

Once Hasheem Thabeet, James Harden and Tyreke Evans were off the board, I thought for sure the T-Wolves would take a point guard (Rubio or Flynn) and Stephen Curry, who is a smallish combo guard that can shoot the lights out. If you want to run him at off guard, you need to pair him with a pure point guard to set him up. A Flynn/Curry or Rubio/Curry backcourt would have had a real chance at working. Rubio/Flynn would serve as the playmaker, while Curry’s shooting would create space for Al Jefferson and Kevin Love to work in the post. Defensively, a backcourt like that would have its share of problems, but at least it would make sense on the other end of the court.

I just don’t think a Rubio/Flynn backcourt will work. Both players are ball-dominant and neither guy shoots the ball very well. Rubio isn’t strong enough to cover most opposing shooting guards and Flynn isn’t tall enough to cover big guards on the block. Throw in the fact that Rubio doesn’t sound too thrilled about the prospect of playing in Minnesota, and Kahn might have one big mess on his hands.

Here is some more commentary about Minnesota’s first two picks…

Read the rest of this entry »

T-Mac for Amare?

According to the same source that disclosed Terry Porter was about to be fired as Suns coach, the Rockets are leaning toward swapping Tracy McGrady’s expiring $22M contract, Carl Landry and Aaron Brooks for Leandro Barbosa and Stoudemire, who owns an escape clause after next season and is demanding an extension this summer to waive it.

I’m not sure what the upside is for the Suns. Stoudemire will likely opt out of his contract after the season, so they aren’t gaining any financial flexibility. They do get a couple of good young players (Landry and Brooks), but is that really enough? McGrady is a very good player when healthy, but he can’t seem to stay upright.

This would be a bold move for the Rockets, but it would leave them awfully thin at point guard. Kyle Lowry would be the only experienced PG on the roster, but Houston could use its mid-level exception to go out and get a veteran like Andre Miller or Mike Bibby, though the MLE may not be enough.

Read the rest of this entry »

Memphis GM Gerald Wallace took a lot of heat for trading Pau Gasol to the Lakers. But if we’ve learned anything in the past few days, it’s that Wallace was simply a man ahead of his time.

On Tuesday, we learned that the Bucks agreed to trade Richard Jefferson to the Spurs for Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas and Amir Johnson. (Fabricio Oberto was part of the original deal, but San Antonio sent him to Detroit for Johnson, who was then sent to Milwaukee.)

Regular readers know I’m a Bucks fan, and I spent the last couple of days grumbling on the Sports Bubbler message boards about how we didn’t get anything in return for Jefferson, who is still a pretty good player. When Wallace traded away Gasol, at least he got Javaris Crittenton (who was considered a prospect with upside at the time) and Pau’s brother, Marc, who turned out to be a productive center for the Grizzlies.

Then I wake up today to see that the Cavs and Suns have agreed to go through with that long-rumored trade that will send Shaq to Cleveland for salary cap relief. Who do the Suns get in return? A retiree (Ben Wallace), a bench player with a partially guaranteed contract (Sasha Pavlovic), some cash and a second round pick.

This is the going rate for a Third Team All-NBA center these days.

We knew that this summer had the potential to be a rough one for free agents, but it’s a little surprising to see that good players like O’Neal and Jefferson could be had for virtually nothing. Bucks owner Herb Kohl and Suns owner Robert Sarver realize that their clubs aren’t legitimate contenders, so they don’t see the point in paying the luxury tax just for the privilege of being knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. What kind of an effect these moves have on season ticket purchases remains to be seen.

The bottom line is that if a team is willing to spend, there has never been a better time to acquire talent. You’re not going to get someone like Caron Butler, who plays for a (pretend) contender and has a reasonable contract, but you can get Jefferson, who is overpaid and is on a mediocre team that is up against the luxury tax. And the older the player, the more likely he’s available. Teams aren’t going to give up good players that are in their early- or mid-twenties because the plan is to rebuild before they’re over the hill.

So who might be on the move for a bag of peanuts and some salary cap flexibility? How about Tracy McGrady, Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, Vince Carter, Tyson Chandler, Amare Stoudemire, Jermaine O’Neal, Michael Redd, Ray Allen or Rip Hamilton?

Truth be told, a team like the Suns isn’t going to give the youngish Stoudemire away for cap flexibility alone. But as the price of a star goes down, the price of superstar goes down as well.

It promises to be an interesting summer.

Rajon Rondo is available. Wait, no he’s not.

While there has been talk around the NBA from several scouts that the Celtics have been shopping guard Rajon Rondo, he isn’t expected to be dealt. While unlikely, one Eastern Conference executive said the latest trade rumor included Rondo and forward Brian Scalabrine going to Memphis for guard Mike Conley and swingman Rudy Gay. On the flip side, one NBA GM said that he asked Celtics president Danny Ainge about Rondo and Ainge said he didn’t want to trade him.

Chad Ford had this to say…

I’m more persuaded by what several league sources told me about Doc Rivers’ relationship with Rondo. They say Rivers has told them Rondo is “impossible to coach” and “stubborn.” The worry is that if the Celtics give him a big contract extension next year, he’ll be even more unmanageable in the future. So the Celtics are trying to trade him now, while his trade value is high, to avoid a very difficult decision a year from now.

While it’s true that his stock has never been higher, the proof is in the pudding. If the Celtics can keep their core — Garnett, Pierce, Ray Ray and Rondo — healthy for the playoffs, they have a great shot at winning another title. Why break that up?

Read the rest of this entry »

Chad Ford, DraftExpress and NBADraft.net all updated their mocks today, so it’s a good time to come up with another consensus. NBA.com has their own consensus, but it’s only updated through yesterday. (I expect they’ll update it today.) They’re using some old mocks and since I’m unfamiliar with a few of those sites, I can’t speak to their quality.

(To see my most recent mock draft, click here.)

A few random thoughts:

- DraftExpress backed off their prediction that Harden would go #2. He’s a great fit in OKC and Russell Westbrook didn’t seem too thrilled with the idea of moving off the ball. I don’t think the Thunder will take a point guard.

- Ford has Jennings going #19 to the Hawks. Atlanta would have to be thrilled to get him there, but I don’t think he lasts that long. On the whole, his workouts have reportedly been very good. Maybe he’s not polished but everyone seems to be saying that he has a ton of upside, maybe the most of any player in this draft. How does a guy like that slip into the late teens? In Ford’s defense, DE has him going #17 to the Sixers. Again, Philly would have to be thrilled to get him there.

- DE has James Johnson going #9 to Toronto, which is a bit of a surprise. The Raptors and DeMar DeRozan have been linked for weeks now, but Jrue Holiday has impressed the franchise as well. Toronto already has Jose Calderon, so I doubt a point guard is high on their list of priorities, but that’s definitely the position of strength in this draft.

- NBADraft.net has Holiday going #18. They’ve been down on him for this entire process, but considering that he’s working out for mainly lottery teams, I don’t see him falling that far. He was rumored to be a Sacramento favorite at #4 early on, but he has had some inconsistent workouts since then. I think he’ll probably go to the Knicks at #8 or the Bucks at #10 unless players slip that those teams can’t pass up (i.e. Curry for the Knicks and Hill for the Bucks).

- There is a lot of fluidity in picks #4 through #8, which makes sense considering there are so many point guards jockeying for position. Rubio is the biggest unknown and has only worked out for Sacramento, Curry really saw his stock climb after the season and appears to be a favorite of Minnesota, Golden State and New York, Evans reportedly dominated in the Minnesota and Sacramento workouts, and Jennings has turned in a couple of great workouts for Golden State and New York.

The Wizards’ #5 pick has been the subject of much speculation in the weeks leading up to the draft, and it looks like it may have finally found a home.

The Washington Wizards are close to a deal that would send the No. 5 pick in Thursday’s draft, Oleksiy Pecherov, Etan Thomas and Darius Songaila to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Randy Foye and Mike Miller, a league source told ESPN The Magazine’s Ric Bucher on Tuesday.

The Wolves would then keep the draft pick and their own selection at No. 6 and not try to package those to move up, a source told ESPN.com’s Andy Katz.

The Wizards had a hole at off guard, and they certainly filled it with this trade. DeShawn Stevenson and Nick Young manned the position last season, so Foye and Miller will give the Wizards two more perimeter weapons. But are Foye and Miller worth whatever the Wizards would have been able to get with the #5 pick?

Whether or not Minnesota fans like this trade will depend on how much they like Randy Foye. While he averaged 16.3 points and 4.3 assists last season, he shot just 41% from the field and wasn’t particularly efficient in his minutes (PER: 13.76). Miller is a good player, but he just had the worst season of his career, failing to crack double digits in scoring (though he did average 6.6 rebounds and 4.5 assists for a PER of 13.84). I think he can still help the Wizards.

The T-Wolves are reportedly most interested in Hasheem Thabeet and Stephen Curry, though there is no guarantee that either player will be available at #5. In fact, Thabeet is projected to go #2 or #3, while Curry is more likely to be available at #5. Since this is such a point guard heavy draft, I wonder what the T-Wolves plan to do if the draft goes as follows: #1 Blake Griffin, #2 Hasheem Thabeet, #3 James Harden and #4 Ricky Rubio — will they draft two guards like Curry and Tyreke Evans? Or will they draft Jordan Hill at a position that is already a position of strength? Or will they go with Curry and DeMar DeRozan, who can play either wing position? Are Jonny Flynn, Brandon Jennings or Jrue Holiday in the mix?

If Harden slips to #5 and Curry is there, Minnesota could lock up its backcourt in one fell swoop.

Promise for Terrence Williams?

Williams went back for a second workout with the Bobcats on Monday against Gerald Henderson. Sources said after the workout that Williams met with the Bobcats and might have walked away with a promise that the Bobcats would take him at No. 12.

Williams has been moving up of late, and now it looks like he may have leapfrogged Henderson in a pretty thin shooting guard draft class. The Warriors are reportedly high on him at #7 as well.

Read the rest of this entry »

TrueHoop has a nice piece on Louisville forward Earl Clark, a versatile 6′10″ forward who some believe has the most upside of anyone in this draft even though he’s projected to go in the middle of the first round. His advocates say that he’s a top five talent but his detractors say that he’s a tweener and doesn’t have the drive or intensity to succeed in the NBA.

Clark embodies this basketball archetype. When he falls below the radar on the court — whether it was in that horrendous game against UConn or in a hostile road environment like Morgantown, West Virginia — it isn’t so much that he’s unassertive. It’s often a case of not knowing which of his many skills to assert on a specific play. A player like Clark can look like he’s taking plays off when, in reality, he’s paralyzed by choice.

When Clark gets twitchy on a halfcourt possession, he often holds the ball overhead along the perimeter. He looks over at the weak side, then down low, then back up at his point guard. There’s a moment you think he’ll put the ball on the deck and drive past his defender, and sometimes he’ll start his dribble move that way. Only Clark doesn’t display the tunnel vision of a fierce slasher. You can riffle through dozens of clips before you see Clark simply put his head down and drive for the hole. He hesitates, will look for a kickout or a cutter, maybe back it out, or just stop in his tracks. It’s the tentativeness of someone with too many options.

Watching Clark at moments like these evokes memories of Lamar Odom’s early days with the Los Angeles Clippers. Odom came to the pro game with a vast array of skills, almost none of which were wholly NBA-ready. He’d recognize a mismatch — for instance, a hulking big man guarding him on the ball along the perimeter. Odom’s initial instincts would be spot on, and he’d blow by the big man without much effort. But he’d ease up before he got to the hole, which would allow a lanky weak side defender to challenge the play and force him to his weaker right hand. Prior to arriving in the NBA, Odom never needed more than 80% speed to finish an elementary play like that.

The Odom comparison is a good one. It’s frustrating to watch the Laker forward because at times he’s the best player on the floor. Other times, he barely makes an impact. I watched several Louisville games this season and Clark seems to be a background player. He doesn’t make a big deal when he makes a great play, and his points are often of the “quiet” variety. But that doesn’t mean that he isn’t effective.

He averaged 14.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.4 blocks and 3.2 turnovers per game during his senior year. He shot 46% from the field, 65% from the line and 33% from long range; none of those numbers are particularly good for a 6′10″ perimeter-oriented forward, but keep in mind that he was arguably the best player on a Louisville team that won the Big East Championship.

Clark’s draft stock was consistently in the top 10 most of the season and started to take a dip when all of these point guards — Jonny Flynn, Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday — began to emerge before and after the combine. Now he’s projected to go in the middle of the round, while the occasional mock will have him cracking the top 10, usually to Toronto at #9 or to Milwaukee at #10.

TrueHoop tracked down Brandon Jennings’ former teammate, Ibrahim Jaaber, to provide a scouting report on Jennings and Ricky Rubio.

Ibrahim Jaaber is uniquely situated to comment on both. It is much discussed that Jennings did not play much for his Italian team, Lottomatica Roma. That’s in part because Jennings played behind Jaaber, a former two-time Ivy League player of the year who has played in Europe since graduating in 2007.

Jaaber agreed to provide a scouting report on his former teammate, Jennings, as well as Rubio, whom Jaaber faced on the court last December. I don’t know if it’s fair to expect Jaaber to be unbiased — Jennings is a former teammate, and he has no such relationship with Rubio — but he assures he is speaking from the heart when he writes:

I look at both as players who will need to be nurtured and given a lot of attention in order to thrive in the NBA. After one or two seasons in the League, given the same coaching, opportunities and development, in my opinion, I think Brandon Jennings will be the overall better player. Which is not to say that Ricky won’t be successful. I just think Brandon has greater potential — and as they are both in my eyes players who will have to make great developments, I would invest my pick in the better athlete, Brandon Jennings.

The piece is longer, and Jaaber makes a case for both players, but he’d take Jennings over Rubio.

Jennings was a top 5 pick all season, but has seen his stock drop recently as concerns over his lack of playing time in Italy crossed with the emergence of several other point guard prospects, namely Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, Stephen Curry and Jonny Flynn. Everything I’m reading points to the fact that Jennings is a great athlete and has outstanding quickness, but doesn’t have the same feel for the game as some of the other prospects do. His jumper seems to be falling and he has had several good workouts in recent days. He could go as early as #7 (to the Warriors) or possibly as late as #14 (to the Suns), and given the fluidity of this draft, even that’s not a solid range.