The draft is just a few days away, so it’s a good time to take one final stab at mocking the first round of this draft. I’ll continue to update the consensus draft this week, but this will be my last attempt at predicting what will happen this Thursday.

First, let’s take a look at the most recent consensus. Chad Ford released the most recent version of his mock draft today, NBADraft.net also updated today, while DraftExpress updated their mock yesterday.

Now I’ll go, pick by pick, through the first round, taking the consensus into account while also throwing in my $0.02 here and there.

#1 CLIPPERS
The Clips have shown no signs of trading away their opportunity to draft Blake Griffin. There is much fluidity with the next few picks, but the Oklahoma product is pretty much guaranteed to be the first pick. The Clippers will then (reportedly) try to move Zach Randolph or Chris Kaman, though it might be wise to move forward with Kaman and Griffin in the front court, Baron Davis at the point, and Eric Gordon and Al Thornton on the wing. Randolph is going to be tough to move. (I still can’t believe that Mike Dunleavy traded for him last season.)
Pick: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma

#2 GRIZZLIES
The consensus says that Hasheem Thabeet will be the pick and I don’t disagree, even though he just pulled out of a workout with Memphis due to a shoulder injury. DraftExpress thinks that Memphis will go with James Harden and move O.J. Mayo to the point, which they say is his natural position. I don’t know that they’ve given up on Mike Conley yet, so I think they will go big with this pick. Their biggest need is at power forward, so trading down and drafting Jordan Hill is a possibility. But if they stand pat, Thabeet could very well be the pick, even though he doesn’t seem to want to play in Memphis.
Pick: Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn

#3 THUNDER
This pick mostly depends on what the Thunder think they have in Russell Westbrook. Is he their point guard of the future? If so, OKC might go with Harden, a savvy off guard who tested much better athletically at the combine than expected. If not, they could go with Ricky Rubio or another point guard and move Westbrook to off guard. If Thabeet is available, he’s a possibility as well.
Pick: James Harden, SG, Arizona State

#4 KINGS
The consensus says that Rubio will be the pick even though his visit to Sacramento didn’t go all that well because he was too sick to work out. He has time to make another visit, but I think Evans’ performance at a recent workout has made him the frontrunner in Sacramento.
Pick: Tyreke Evans, PG, Memphis

#5 WIZARDS
The Wizards think they’re in “win now” mode, so they should probably trade this pick for some veteran help, especially at off guard. If they keep the pick, they could go with one of the combo guards — Holiday, Evans, Curry or Harden, if available — or go for some upside in the front court and draft Jordan Hill. They are reportedly really high on Rubio, even though he isn’t the greatest fit with Gilbert Arenas in the Wizards’ backcourt.
Pick: Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain

#6 TIMBERWOLVES
Minnesota looks to be set on drafting a point guard, which will allow Randy Foye to play off guard (probably his natural position). They should have their pick of Curry, Holiday, Evans, Flynn and Jennings, but it was Evans that reportedly dominated the massive point guard workout in Minnesota. Curry didn’t attend, but with both Rubio and Evans already off the board, he may be their pick.
Pick: Stephen Curry, PG, Davidson

#7 WARRIORS
Golden State really likes Stephen Curry, but now that he’s off the board, this becomes a crapshoot. Larry Riley said recently that he’d like some “beef,” and Jordan Hill fits the bill. Brandon Jennings and Terrance Williams are reportedly quite high on the Warriors’ draft board.
Pick: Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona

#8 KNICKS
The Knicks would like to draft Curry or Hill here, but with both players gone, look for them to go with another point guard. Jennings, Holiday, Flynn and even Ty Lawson are possibilities here. They’re reportedly trying to get Holiday in for a second workout, which tells me that he may be their backup plan if Curry and Hill are off the board.
Pick: Jrue Holiday, PG, UCLA

#9 RAPTORS
DeMar DeRozan has been penciled in for Toronto for the last few weeks, though NBADraft.net has the Raptors taking Gerald Henderson in their most recent mock. John Hollinger’s Draft Rater doesn’t like DeRozan, but there’s no telling if Bryan Colangelo, who has a reputation for having a great eye for talent, will care.
Pick: DeMar DeRozan, GF, USC

#10 BUCKS
From the sound of it, GM John Hammond is looking for a point guard here, and with Jonny Flynn, Brandon Jennings and Ty Lawson on the board, he has a nice group to choose from. Of that group, I think Flynn is most likely to be the pick. He’s the best defender of the bunch (including Evans and Curry) and has the right attitude to thrive in a small market like Milwaukee. The Bucks already have Ramon Sessions, and probably should be looking at a front court pick like DeJuan Blair (or moving up for Jordan Hill), but it sounds like they have point guard on the brain. Jrue Holiday is another possibility, if available.
Pick: Jonny Flynn, PG, Syracuse

#11 NETS
Even though the Nets already have Devin Harris, it’s entirely possible that they’ll decide to go with the best player available, even if it’s a point guard like Flynn, Jennings or Lawson. Gerald Henderson is another possibility with Vince Carter getting on in years, but the rumors all seem to be swirling around a front court pick like DeJuan Blair or Tyler Hansbrough. Both players are hard-nosed rebounding types, but they each have their faults. For Blair, it seems to be his height (6’5″ w/o shoes) and concerns about his knees. For Hansbrough, it’s a perceived lack of upside. Blair’s reach makes up for his height, and I think his game will translate a little better to the NBA given his strong post moves inside. (Hansbrough is more robotic on the block.)
Pick: DeJuan Blair, PF, Pittsburgh

#12 BOBCATS
Again, Charlotte could very well go with Jennings or Lawson here and maybe look to make a trade with a team searching for point guard help. If not, they’ll probably look to the wing where a guy like Gerald Henderson could really make an impact. He’s a terrific athlete and has an improving offensive game. He should fit in with what Larry Brown is trying to do.
Pick: Henderson, SG, Duke

#13 PACERS
Indiana would probably be thrilled if they have the choice between Brandon Jennings and Ty Lawson here. Lately, the buzz about Lawson has been good, and concerns about slipping out of the lottery has Jennings working out for some of the teams working in the mid-first round. With GM Larry Bird calling the shots, I think he’ll go with the safer pick (Lawson) leaving the upside of Jennings on the table.
Pick: Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina

#14 SUNS
While there are a few guys that might be able to help immediately, with Steve Nash’s career on the decline, GM Steve Kerr could look at finding his eventual replacement. I don’t think he would pass on Jennings’ potential here. The Suns seem to want to move forward with Nash running the show, so it would give Jennings a year or three to develop.
Pick: Brandon Jennings, PG, via Italy

#15 PISTONS
The word is that the Pistons have made a promise to draft B.J. Mullens if he’s on the board at #15, but Mullens himself says there is no promise, and Chad Ford says that the team is more interested in Earl Clark. If Clark beefs up, he can play the 4, so he’d help with the Pistons’ problems on the front line. (And if they draft Clark, what does that mean for Carlos Boozer potentially signing with Detroit?)
Pick: Earl Clark, F, Louisville

#16 BULLS
Chicago reportedly has interest in Hansbrough here, but they may not be able to pass on the upside of B.J. Mullens. They should be aware that there are long odds of a seven-footer drafted outside of the lottery going on to have a great NBA career.
Pick: B.J. Mullens, C, Ohio State

#17 SIXERS
Philly fans may be hoping that Ty Lawson or Brandon Jennings slips to them here at #17, but Eric Maynor would be a nice pick as well. He’s being overlooked in a great point guard draft, but he does everything well and should be able to contribute immediately, a la Courtney Lee. Jeff Teague is another possibility. His outside shooting should help Elton Brand down low.
Pick: Eric Maynor, PG, VCU

#18 TIMBERWOLVES
If Minnesota gets their point guard (Evans) at #6, their fans should be happy if they can land someone like Terrance Williams at #18. Corey Brewer’s career is off to a rocky start, and Randy Foye isn’t exactly lighting things up, so Williams gives the T-Wolves another option on the wing.
Pick: Terrance Williams, GF, Louisville

#19 HAWKS
Truth be told, the Hawks should have taken Chris Paul or Deron Williams in the ’05 Draft, but they didn’t and they’re still looking for their point guard of the future after drafting Acie Law two years ago. Enter Jeff Teague, a smooth shooter in the same mold as current Hawk Mike Bibby.
Pick: Jeff Teague, PG, Wake Forest

#20 JAZZ
I may be wrong, but if Hansbrough is available at #20, I don’t see the Jazz passing on him. It’s just too good of a fit (especially with Carlos Boozer likely on his way out of town).
Pick: Tyler Hansbrough, PF, North Carolina

#21 HORNETS
New Orleans needs wings who can shoot, because Peja Stojakovic and Rasual Butler aren’t going to get the Hornets to the Finals. While Wayne Ellington is a possibility, LSU’s Marcus Thornton might be the better fit. He’s sort of a Rip Hamilton type who scores a lot off of screens. He also does a nice job of knocking down contested jumpers which will help in the NBA.
Pick: Marcus Thornton, G, LSU

#22 MAVERICKS
The Mavs probably need to think point guard first, but they might still be in denial about that Devin Harris-for-Jason Kidd trade. Darren Collison is a possibility, but the Mavs should be able to re-sign Kidd for another season or two, and they may look at trading Josh Howard due to his tendency to be an off-court distraction. This is where James Johnson comes in. He can play either forward position and was considered a borderline lottery talent before questions about his attitude started to weigh down his stock.
Pick: James Johnson, F, Wake Forest

#23 KINGS
If the Kings go with a point guard at #4, they would have a tough time passing on the potential of Austin Daye here. Draft Express has him rated as the #2 small forward in this draft, but he’s going to need some time to develop, and they have nothing but time in Sacramento.
Pick: Austin Daye, SF, Gonzaga

#24 TRAIL BLAZERS
I think Darren Collison is a sleeper at point guard in this PG-heavy draft. He’s a floor general who plays great defense and can hit the open jumper. He doesn’t have the three-point range of Steve Blake, but he already does everything else better. He would be a nice fit in Portland, assuming they keep this pick. (They’ll probably trade it.)
Pick: Darren Collison, PG, UCLA

#25 THUNDER
Assuming OKC goes with Harden at #3, they’ll probably look to the front court with this pick. At this point, there are a number of power forwards — Josh Heytvelt, Gani Lawal, Jeff Pendergraph, Taj Gibson, Omri Casspi, Derrick Brown or DeMarre Carroll — who could help the Thunder up front. Two of the mocks say that Chase Budinger is a good pick here, but unless they get Thabeet at #3, I think they’re going to go big. How about Casspi, who has played well in workouts this summer? The Thunder can wait for the 20-year-old to develop.
Pick: Omri Casspi, F, Israel

#26 BULLS
They drafted a center at #16, so they might look to the wing to shore things up in case Ben Gordon leaves via free agency. Wayne Ellington shot the ball great in the tournament and he has the potential to be a pretty good fit alongside Derrick Rose in the backcourt when John Salmons eventually leaves.
Pick: Wayne Ellington, SG, North Carolina

#27 GRIZZLIES
If they go with Thabeet at #2, they might turn to the backcourt with this pick and draft Florida’s Nick Calathes, who is a good finisher and spot up shooter. There are also a number of power forwards still on the board that could provide some defense and rebounding.
Pick: Nick Calathes, PG, Florida

#28 TIMBERWOLVES
The T-Wolves could use a little more beef up front, and Gonzaga’s Josh Heytvelt has the outside stroke to complement Al Jefferson’s post up game. Along with Kevin Love, the trio could give Minny a nice rotation up front, though the T-Wolves may elect to draft a player with more athleticism.
Pick: Josh Heytvelt, C, Gonzaga

#29 LAKERS
With Derek Fisher getting older and Shannon Brown entering free agency, the Lakers have a few questions in the backcourt. They might also look to shore up the small forward position if it looks like Trevor Ariza or Lamar Odom isn’t going to return. Sweden’s Jonas Jerebko is a versatile 6’9″ forward who could potentially fill Odom’s role at the 3/4 spot.
Pick: Jonas Jerebko, F, Sweden

#30 CAVALIERS
With Anderson Varejao’s future in Cleveland unknown, the Cavs have their pick of several power forward types who could bring defense and rebounding. How about USC’s Taj Gibson, who is a pretty good shotblocker?
Pick: Taj Gibson, PF, USC

It has been about two weeks since I published my first mock draft, so it’s a good time to check back in with all the news and rumors and take another stab.

Like I said in the intro of my first mock, it’s tough for me to make predictions about what teams will do because I’m constantly thinking about what they should do. These are obviously two very different things.

For this go-around, I’m going to try something a little different. I’ve compiled the picks for four mock drafts from sites that I respect — ESPN (Chad Ford), Dime Magazine, DraftExpress and NBADraft.net — and then I’ll provide my own picks taking their picks into account, to form some sort of consensus.

Let’s get on with it…

#1 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
All signs seem to point to the Cliippers keeping this pick and taking Blake Griffin. They have a need at power forward — sorry, Zach Randolph is not the answer — and Griffin is the closest thing to a “sure bet” as there is in this draft. Ford says that the Clippers will find a way to get rid of Randolph and/or Chris Kaman, but Randolph’s contract (two years, $33 million) will be unmovable for another year. Kaman is an effective center when healthy, so there’s no reason the Clips can’t move forward with Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Al Thornton, Griffin and Kaman. Davis may understandably want to move on from this young team to play for a contender.
Pick: Griffin, PF

#2 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
The consensus says that Hasheem Thabeet is going to be the pick here, so I see no reason to change my pick. Ricky Rubio’s name keeps coming up, but it sounds like he’s not too excited about buying out his contract in Spain to play in Memphis, where two Spaniards — Pau Gasol and Juan Carlos Navarro — have had a bad time. The Grizzlies already have a center in Marc Gasol, who seems to be thriving there, but is he really a starting caliber center on a playoff team? The other issue is Mike Conley. If the Grizzlies go point guard here, they’re effectively giving up on him, and it’s probably too soon to make that call.
Pick: Thabeet, C

#3 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
The buzz of late is that James Harden may be headed to OKC and the consensus bears that out. This pick is more about what the Thunder think of Russell Westbrook than it is about any player they might take here. Is he a point guard or an off guard? He definitely has a shoot-first mentality (as evidenced by this study that I did a few weeks back), and his A/TO ratio of 1.59 is unimpressive. But the Thunder seem to think he’s a point guard, so Harden may very well be the pick here.
Pick: Harden, SG

#4 SACRAMENTO KINGS
The Kings could use a point guard, and according to the consensus, Ricky Rubio just fell into their proverbial laps. I’m not sure he’s destined to be a star, but the scouts love his vision and overall feel for the game, and if he’s able to improve his jumper, he could be a very good NBA point guard. It’s interesting to note that Ford believes the Kings will take Jrue Holiday, though the other three mocks have him going (on average) with the #18 pick.
Pick: Rubio, PG

#5 WASHINGTON WIZARDS
If Harden is still there, he’s a real possibility, and Dime seems to think that they’ll go with Tyreke Evans to give Gilbert Arenas an upgrade in the backcourt (from DeShawn Stevenson). I think there’s a great chance that the Wizards trade this pick as part of a deal to get some immediate help, as Jordan Hill is probably too much of a project for the Wizards to deal with at this point. They need to win now, and the #5 pick still holds a lot of value, even in this somewhat thin draft.
Pick: Hill, PF

#6 MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
The T-Wolves face the same dilemma as the Thunder. Randy Foye doesn’t look to have the same upside as Russell Westbrook, but they’re both combo guards. The consensus says that Evans is the pick, but in his draft, Ford contradicts himself a bit by putting Evans ahead of Stephen Curry, who has really helped his draft stock with a great showing at the combine. With the success the Magic are having by surrounding Dwight Howard with a bunch of shooters (the ol’ Hakeem Olajuwon-era model in Houston), I could see the T-Wolves going with the best shooter (Curry). He and Foye are both versatile enough to share the ball-handling duties. A pure point guard like Jonny Flynn is also a possibility.
Pick: Curry, PG

#7 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
The consensus says that the Warriors will take Brandon Jennings, but Ford’s GM quiz indicates that the overall feeling on Flynn is much better, since he’s more of a known quantity. But is Monta Ellis a point guard or an off guard? It would have been nice had he stayed off the moped so that the Warriors would have had a year to figure that out. Curry and Evans are also strong possibilities.
Pick: Flynn, PG

#8 NEW YORK KNICKS
The Knicks have been long linked to Curry, but with his fine showing in the combine, he might be gone by the time the Knicks pick at #8. How about sending Nate Robinson and the #8 pick to Washington for their #5 pick? (Just throwing it out there.) If Curry is gone and the Knicks keep their pick, look for Flynn, Jennings, Evans or Holiday to be their guy. Right now, Holiday’s stock seems to be the highest, assuming Flynn goes #7.
Pick: Holiday, PG

#9 TORONTO RAPTORS
Tyreke Evans’ camp seems certain that he’s going in the top 10, but it would seem strange for the Raptors to draft a combo guard to play alongside Jose Calderon, who is one of the most efficient point guards in the league. DeMar DeRozan and DeJuan Blair are possibilities here, but I’ll go with Evans, since three of the four mocks in the consensus have him drafted by this point.
Pick: Evans, G

#10 MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Full disclosure: I’m a longtime Bucks fan (since the days of Sidney Moncrief and Bob Lanier), so it’s hard to distance myself from this pick. Two of the mocks in the consensus have the Bucks selecting Jordan Hill, and I’d be happy with that pick. The other two have the Bucks taking point guards (Flynn and Evans). Since all three players are gone in my mock, I think Milwaukee will take DeJuan Blair to give the team some toughness alongside Andrew Bogut up front. There was some concern about his height, but he has a monster wingspan to give him the 10th highest overall reach in the draft. The Bucks have to decide if they’re keeping Ramon Sessions and Charlie Villanueva, and regular readers know that I am sky high on Sessions. I think a lineup of Sessions, Michael Redd, Richard Jefferson, Blair/Mbah a Moute and Bogut, if healthy, puts the Bucks in the playoffs next season, assuming Blair doesn’t turn into Robert “Tractor” Traylor, Jr. and pack on a bunch of pounds. DeMar DeRozan is a possibility as well.
Pick: Blair, PF

#11 NEW JERSEY NETS
The consensus says Blair, and the Nets could really use his toughness and inside scoring, but my beloved Bucks just took him. New Jersey is set at point guard and center with Devin Harris and Brook Lopez, so DeRozan, Gerald Henderson, James Johnson and Chase Budinger are all possibilities. Three of the four mocks have DeRozan gone by now, so let’s go with the USC frosh.
Pick: DeRozan, GF

#12 CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
This is the first pick where the four mocks have the team taking four different players. I still think that Gerald Henderson has a ton of upside and will bring the consistent defense to make Larry Brown happy. If this guy can develop a consistent jumper, he will be a star.
Pick: Henderson, SG

#13 INDIANA PACERS
Again, there is no consensus. The Pacers are set at small forward with Danny Granger, but that’s about it. Austin Daye has a lot of upside, but at 190 lbs, it’s unclear whether or not he’ll ever be able to play power forward, though Indiana could conceivably move Granger to the four. This is what makes Earl Clark interesting for the Pacers. He’s a versatile forward who could could play the four and set Granger up with his fine passing. Plus, Rick Pitino thinks he’s a good kid that needs a solid mentor, and Granger could be that guy. The Pacers could also go point guard here with Jeff Teague, Eric Maynor or Ty Lawson.
Pick: Clark, F

#14 PHOENIX SUNS
I think it’s safe to say that the writing is on the wall that Amare Stoudemire is not long for Phoenix. He’s already talking about his next destination (the Knicks), so the Suns may look to try to replace him with a power forward like James Johnson. The Suns could also go point guard with Maynor, Teague or Lawson, but that wouldn’t send a very good message to Steve Nash, who has said all the right things the last few months. What the Suns do with this pick could tell us a lot about their long term plans.
Pick: J. Johnson, F

#15 DETROIT PISTONS
Again, no consensus here. The Pistons need more help up front than on the perimeter, but they could still go with a guard with this pick. Someone like Tyler Hansbrough could help right away (as a rotation player off the bench) or the Pistons could go with upside like Austin Daye or B.J. Mullens. They could also go point guard (Maynor, Teague or Lawson) to give Rodney Stuckey a backup or maybe eventually play him at the two if Rip Hamilton leaves. What the hell — let’s go with Mullens. The Pistons’ biggest need is center and here’s a seven-footer with a ton of upside, and those don’t grow on trees.
Pick: Mullens, C

#16 CHICAGO BULLS
Two of the mocks have the Bulls going with Mullens here, which makes sense because Chicago needs some low post scoring. Aaron Gray has been disappointing and Joakim Noah isn’t a post scorer. The team is set at point guard with Derrick Rose, has a nice swingman in Luol Deng and Noah can play power forward or center. They might go with a guy like Chase Budinger or Wayne Ellington in case they don’t re-sign Ben Gordon. Hansbrough and James Johnson are possibilities, if available. Budinger’s stock seems to be the highest of the bunch, so we’ll go with him.
Pick: Budinger, GF

#17 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
The Sixers could really use a true point guard. They might keep Andre Miller around for another season or two, but he’s getting pretty long in the tooth and Louis Williams is more of a combo guard than a pure point. This is where the oft-mentioned triumvirate of Jeff Teague, Ty Lawson and Eric Maynor come in. Of the three, I think Lawson is the best fit with the Sixers, because Andre Iguodala doesn’t have a great handle. According to Ford, Maynor and Teague are ranked higher at this point, but I don’t know how the Sixers turn down Lawson’s experience and toughness at this point in the draft.
Pick: Lawson, PG

#18 MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
The more I think about the T-Wolves, the more I think that they might look at the depth at the point guard position in this draft and elect to go with another position at #6 and then grab whomever is left (Lawson, Maynor or Teague) here. The main problem with that theory is that good point guard play is getting more and more important, so you’d rather use a high pick there than on the wing. Assuming they do go Curry (or another PG) at #6, I think Austin Daye is a real possibility here. That would give the team a core of Curry, Foye, Daye, Love and Jefferson to build around. The mocks say that Mullens, Budinger and Terrance Williams are possibilities here as well. Two of the mocks don’t even have Daye going in the first round, so we’ll go with Williams since his stock seems to be higher, even though I think I’d rather have Sam Young on my team.
Pick: T. Williams, SF

#19 ATLANTA HAWKS
The Acie Law pick hasn’t panned out, so the Hawks are still looking for a point guard to take over whenever Mike Bibby finally leaves. I still like Lawson the most, but Maynor and Teague are both interesting picks. Two of the mocks say Teague, but I think Maynor might be the better pro. He seems to be the better all around player.
Pick: Teague, PG

#20 UTAH JAZZ
Three mocks have the Jazz going with a power forward, with Hansbrough going in two. His measurements (specifically his reach and agility scores) were better than expected, and his non-stop motor and work ethic will keep him in the league for a long time. Besides, he just looks like a Jerry Sloan kind of guy, and with Carlos Boozer likely on the way out, the Jazz will need a power forward to backup Paul Millsap.
Pick: Hansbrough, PF

#21 NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Two of the four mocks project the Hornets to take a point guard (Maynor or Patrick Mills), and while the team could use a backup for Chris Paul, finding a good wing or two is a much bigger priority. Julian Wright should be a good player, so a sharpshooting off guard might do the trick. Budinger would be good if he were available, but the Bulls took him at #16. How about Wayne Ellington, Austin Daye or Sam Young? I think Young could potentially be the Josh Howard of this draft, but Ellington had a great tournament and fills a need at off guard.
Pick: Ellington, SG

#22 DALLAS MAVERICKS
The Mavs could really use a point guard, which is why Maynor might be the pick here. Though it would be tempting to draft Austin Daye for his apparent upside. Maynor is probably too good to pass up here and the four mocks agree that he’s a first round talent — Daye, not so much.
Pick: Maynor, PG

#23 SACRAMENTO KINGS
The Kings are another team that have both an early and a late pick, and they might pass on point guard at #4 if they think they can get their guy with this pick. Two of the mocks have the Kings taking Israel’s Omri Casspi, but how about two-time Big East first teamer Sam Young? He’s a great defender, a good spot up shooter and can finish at the rim. He needs to work on his ball handling and his off-the-dribble jumper, but he projects to be a James Posey-type player, and the Kings could use a few of those.
Pick: Young, SF

#24 PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Two of the mocks have Portland drafting a point guard here (Lawson and Holiday), but I doubt either guy lasts this long. The position is definitely the biggest need for the Blazers, and while they are one of the teams rumored to be looking to move up in the draft, in this mock they have the option of drafting the speedster/sharpshooter (Patrick Mills) or a defensive stopper/floor general (Darren Collison). Mills stock seems to be higher, so we’ll go with him, but UCLA guards have done pretty well of late; Jordan Farmar and Russell Westbrook both turned out to be better than expected.
Pick: Mills, PG

#25 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Assuming they go with Harden, a shooting guard, at #3, it likely means that they view Westbrook as their point guard of the future. Fine. What the Thunder needs now is shotblocking and rebounding. Center is more of a priority than power forward, but the pickings are slim at this point of the draft. Gani Lawal is a good rebounder, a capable scorer, and at just 20 years old, he has some upside.
Pick: Lawal, PF

#26 CHICAGO BULLS
This is when things get really dicey. Whether or not a player that is still on the board is a “first round talent” depends entirely on the teams drafting at the end of the round. The Bulls need some size and low post scoring and Georgetown’s DaJuan Summers fits the bill.
Pick: Summers, PF

#27 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
If the Grizzlies go with Thabeet at #2 instead of a point guard, they may look to grab Collison here as a backup plan for Mike Conley if he doesn’t pan out. They could also use a power forward, so Summers, Casspi, DeMarre Carroll, Taj Gibson, Derrick Brown, Damion James, Dante Cunningham, etc. are all options. I think they’ll go with the proven Collison and try to add a power forward through free agency.
Pick: Collison, PG

#28 MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
The T-Wolves went point guard at #6 and guard/forward at #18, so they will probably try to get some size here. Minny can afford to wait, so how about Israel’s Omri Casspi? They can let him play overseas for a few years before bringing him over. All four mocks think he’s a first round talent.
Pick: Casspi, F

#29 LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Two of the mocks have the Lakers taking Toney Douglas here. He’s undersized for a shooting guard, but in the Lakers’ system, he could play point because he won’t have to handle the ball that much. He fits the L.A. mold — he can shoot and play good defense. The team is also likely to lose either Lamar Odom unless he’s willing to take a big pay cut to stay, so they could go with a forward here as well.
Pick: Douglas, G

#30 CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
The Cavs’ front line is in flux, and there are a number of power forward types available at this point in the draft. Cleveland found PF J.J. Hickson late in last year’s first round, so maybe they’ll try their luck with a center and draft Gonzaga’s Josh Heytvelt who is a polished offensive player, but needs a little work fundamentally on the glass and defensively. He could be a weapon in the pick-and-roll with LeBron. Honestly, it’s a crap shoot at this point.
Pick: Heytvelt, C

With the NBA Draft Lottery behind us, we now know the exact order of the first 14 picks. The Los Angeles Clippers hit paydirt when they won the right to draft Oklahoma forward Blake Griffin with the first overall pick. The Grizzlies moved up from #6 to #2, and the Thunder moved up one spot to pick #3. The big losers Tuesday night were Sacramento and Washington, who had the best and second-best shot at the top pick, but instead fell to #4 and #5, respectively.

Mock drafts are tough for me because I’m usually thinking about what teams should do instead of trying to predict what they will do. This mock will be more predictive, but if I disagree with a selection, I’ll say so. Over the next few weeks, I’ll update this mock to jive with the latest news from around the league. It’s still very early in the process so things are very fluid. One mock has a player going #11 while another may have him going #29.

I’m just going to make picks for the first fourteen slots on the first go-round and then provide the picks of a few different mocks that I respect for #15-#30, along with a short writeup for each team.

#1 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Even Mike Dunleavy can’t screw this one up. Barring something obscenely out of the blue, Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin will be the first overall pick. The Clippers could use a power forward to replace Elton Brand, and Griffin is the only “sure thing” in this draft. He’s strong, skilled and athletic, and he has an improving offensive game. He has star written all over him.
Pick: Griffin, PF

#2 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
The Grizzlies were reportedly one of the few teams more interested in UConn’s 7’3” center Hasheem Thabeet than they were in Blake Griffin. The Grizzlies already have 7’1” Marc Gasol, so Thabeet wouldn’t fill a need like Jordan Hill, Ricky Rubio or Brandon Jennings would (assuming the team isn’t sold on Hakim Warrick or Mike Conley), but Thabeet has the potential to become a dominant defensive center along the lines of Dikembe Mutombo. But will he be willing to put the work in to become an effective post player?
Pick: Thabeet, C

#3 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
If the Grizzlies pass on Thabeet, the Thunder might very well snatch him up. They need a center and he fits the bill. But if he’s off the board (or even if he’s available), the Thunder might look for a point guard. Russell Westbbrook is better off the ball and OKC is set at small forward with Kevin Durant and in pretty good shape at power forward with Jeff Green. Here’s where I have trouble taking the general manager cap off – I’m not sold on Ricky Rubio as a star in the NBA. He’s a terrific passer and has a great feel for the game, but his jumper needs a lot of work. He’s drawing comparisons to Steve Nash and Pete Maravich, but he can’t put the ball in the hole like those guys could. Still, at just 17, he went toe to toe with Chris Paul and Deron Williams at the 2008 Olympics, and CP3 gave him a thumbs up, so the Thunder might very well pick him here.
Pick: Rubio, PG

#4 SACRAMENTO KINGS
The Kings have a lot of holes to fill. They really could use an upgrade at every position other than shooting guard, where Kevin Martin holds down the proverbial fort. Beno Udrih turned out to be a mistake, so the Kings could very well go with a point guard like Brandon Jennings (or Rubio, if available). Thabeet is also an option if he slips. Arizona’s Jordan Hill is a nice prospect, but the Kings already have Jason Thompson at PF and he played pretty well in his rookie season. More and more, it’s becoming a guard’s league, so if Jennings or Rubio (or even UCLA’s Jrue Holliday, who they are reportedly high on) are available, the Kings will probably pull the trigger.
Pick: Jennings, PG

#5 WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Ah, the Wizards. If management is set on moving forward with the trio of Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, they could use an upgrade at off guard and center. It’s hard to tell if Nick Young is going to be a starter or is better suited to come off the bench, so Arizona State’s James Harden is a possibility. He’s polished and NBA-ready, but he disappeared at times in the NCAA tournament and that’s worrisome. Still, defenses won’t be able to focus on him with Arenas, Butler and Jamison spreading the court, and he has shown great ability to score in space and finish at the rim. Jordan Hill is another option, but I think the Wizards can get by with Brendan Haywood, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee up front.
Pick: Harden, SG

#6 MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
The T-Wolves are set up front with Kevin Love at power forward and Al Jefferson at center, and have serious needs elsewhere, so Jordan Hill may continue to slip. All of the point guards – Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holliday, Ty Lawson, Jonny Flynn – are possibilities, as are James Harden, DeMar DeRozan and Tyreke Evans. The key is what the T-Wolves think they have in Randy Foye. He’s a tweener but seems better suited to be an off guard. Even so, he’s been a little disappointing in his young career. I think Lawson is the most polished point guard in the draft, but the T-Wolves might go with the versatility of DeRozan, who has great athleticism and upside (and can play both off guard and small forward).
Pick: DeRozan, GF

#7 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
The Warriors don’t really know if Monta Ellis can run the point, so one of the point guards is a possibility here. The Warriors seem to be in pretty good shape up front with Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph, so Jordan Hill doesn’t seem like a great fit. The Warriors are going to have to replace Stephen Jackson eventually, so how about Memphis’ Tyreke Evans?
Pick: Evans, SG

#8 NEW YORK KNICKS
The word is that the Knicks love Curry, either for what he brings to the table in Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo system, or because he increases (however slightly) the chances that LeBron James signs with the Knicks next summer. (LeBron and Curry are good friends.) Some scouts say he’s not even a first round talent, but he can shoot the lights out and is a decent playmaker. He’s especially effective in the pick and roll, but his roles in college and the NBA will be very different, so it will take him some time to adjust. Let’s go with Curry until we hear otherwise.
Pick: Curry, G

#9 TORONTO RAPTORS
Right now, I’m projecting Jordan Hill to be available at #9 and if so, there’s a good chance that Toronto will draft him. He’s raw, but he’s a good rebounder and defender, and has a lot of upside. The Raptors might see the departure of Chris Bosh on the horizon and draft Hill as his replacement. They also need a shooting guard, but it would be tough to pass on Hill here.
Pick: Hill, PF

#10 MILWAUKEE BUCKS
I grew up watching Sidney Moncrief and Bob Lanier, so I’m a Bucks fan through and through. I really hope they plan on keeping Ramon Sessions this offseason, because I think he has all the tools to become a top 10 point guard in the NBA. That said, the Bucks should be looking at the wing or frontcourt with this pick, because Charlie Villanueva may not be back. DeJuan Blair is reportedly looking slimmer and more explosive, but the Bucks had a very bad experience with Robert Traylor, who lost a ton of weight before the draft then proceeded to pack it back on. Traylor averaged 16.2 points and 10.1 rebounds in his sophomore year at Michigan, while Blair averaged 15.7 points and 12.3 rebounds in five fewer minutes per game. The Bucks could use his toughness, but I’m really worried about Blair turning into Traylor, Jr. Ty Lawson would be a great pick if the Bucks plan to let Sessions walk.
Pick: Blair, PF

#11 NEW JERSEY NETS
The Nets are set at point guard (Devin Harris) and center (Brook Lopez). Everything else is fair game. Earl Clark is a versatile forward, Gerald Henderson is a super athletic off guard with an improving jumper and James Johnson is a good all-around forward. Johnson seems like the best fit for New Jersey, who has needs at both forward positions. DeJuan Blair is a possibility as well.
Pick: Johnson, F

#12 CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Charlotte’s biggest need is at off guard and the super-athletic Gerald Henderson seems like a nice fit. He’s a streaky scorer, but when he’s on, he’s on. Larry Brown will like his on-the-ball defense and he should be able to play right away.
Pick: Henderson, SG

#13 INDIANA PACERS
The Pacers need athleticism up front, but there aren’t too many guys that fit the bill. Indiana is building around Danny Granger (and Danny Granger only), so any other position is fair game. The Pacers have two solid point guards in Jarrett Jack and T.J. Ford, but they should grab Ty Lawson here. He’s a proven winner, lightning quick, and should make a very good pro. I just think he’s the best player available.
Pick: Lawson, PG

#14 PHOENIX SUNS
With Steve Nash’s career winding down, the Suns should start thinking about his replacement. There are a ton of point guards that could be available here: Ty Lawson, Jonny Flynn, Eric Maynor, Jrue Holliday and Jeff Teague. The Suns could also go with a sharpshooting wing to help space the court for Nash, Shaq and Amare Stoudemire in the short term, so Wayne Ellington and Chase Budinger are possibilities. I find it doubtful that the Suns will find someone here who can start right away, so Flynn seems like the best available choice. He showed great toughness and vision in the Big East Championship.
Pick: Flynn, PG

#15 DETROIT PISTONS
This pick has more to do with the Pistons’ plans for free agency than with trying to find a star to build around. They seem set at guard and small forward with Rodney Stuckey, Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, but none of those players are untouchable.
NBADraft.net: Tyreke Evans, G
DraftExpress: Terrence Williams, GF
ESPN: Austin Daye, F

#16 CHICAGO BULLS
The Bulls are in pretty good shape personnel-wise, so they can afford to take the best available player and not draft for need. They could use a low-post scorer or potentially an off guard to replace Ben Gordon, who is likely to sign elsewhere.
NBADraft.net: James Johnson, F
DraftExpress: James Johnson, F
ESPN: DeJuan Blair, PF

#17 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
With free agent Andre Miller getting long in the tooth, the Sixers are very likely to take the best point guard available here. I think Lawson would be a coup. Given the uncertainty around Ricky Rubio and Brandon Jennings, Lawson could very well turn out to be the best point guard to come out of this draft. Eric Maynor, Jrue Holliday, Patty Mills and Jeff Teague are other possibilities.
NBADraft.net: Ty Lawson, PG
DraftExpress: Eric Maynor, PG
ESPN: Eric Maynor, PG

#18 MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (FROM HEAT)
Again, even though Al Jefferson isn’t really a center, I think the T-Wolves are set up front with Jefferson and Kevin Love, so they’ll probably be looking for more help in the backcourt and on the wing.
NBADraft.net: Patrick Mills, PG
DraftExpress: Jrue Holliday, G
ESPN: B.J. Mullins, C

#19 ATLANTA HAWKS
With free agent Mike Bibby getting older and Acie Law not panning out, the Hawks biggest need is at point guard. Even if they re-sign Bibby for another year or two, it would be wise to find his eventual replacement, assuming the franchise doesn’t think Law is the heir apparent.
NBADraft.net: B.J. Mullins, C
DraftExpress: Jeff Teague, PG
ESPN: Jeff Teague, PG

#20 UTAH JAZZ
There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Jazz these days. Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Kyle Korver could all leave via free agency this summer, but one thing’s for sure – the Jazz seem determined to retain Paul Millsap. They could use a center if Okur bolts or maybe a small forward to eventually replace Andrei Kirilenko. They figure to lose either Boozer or Millsap, so a backup PF is also an option.
NBADraft.net: DeJuan Blair, PF
DraftExpress: Austin Daye, F
ESPN: Tyler Hansbrough, PF

#21 NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
The Hornets need wings and a replacement for Tyson Chandler if they trade him in a salary dump this summer. Shooting guard seems to be the top priority, so Wayne Ellington, Chase Budinger or Sam Young (who may be the Josh Howard of this draft) are possibilities.
NBADraft.net: Gani Lawal, PF
DraftExpress: B.J. Mullins C
ESPN: Terrence Williams, GF

#22 DALLAS MAVERICKS
The Mavs probably need to think point guard to (eventually?) replace Jason Kidd. Jeff Teague is a lot like Jason Terry in that he’s more of a scorer and not a natural playmaker. If the Mavs are still building around Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard, then they could use help in the backcourt and at center.
NBADraft.net: Jeff Teague, PG
DraftExpress: Chase Budinger, GF
ESPN: Ty Lawson, PG

#23 SACRAMENTO KINGS (FROM ROCKETS)
Again, the Kings have all sorts of holes, so the direction they go here will likely depend on who they draft at #4.
NBADraft.net: Omri Casspi, SF
DraftExpress: Nick Calathes, PG
ESPN: Nick Calathes, PG

#24 PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Jerryd Bayless doesn’t seem like a true point guard, so Kevin Pritchard might elect to go with the pass-first Collison to set up the Blazers’ shooters. He can also play good on-the-ball defense.
NBADraft.net: Jrue Holliday, G
DraftExpress: Gani Lawal, PF
ESPN: Darren Collison, PG

#25 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (FROM SPURS)
If the Thunder end up with a point guard at #3, then they will likely look to the front court with this pick. Jeff Green is improving, but he’s not a sure-thing to be a starter-caliber PF on a playoff team, so the Thunder may look for some insurance. There isn’t much in the way of talent at the center position this late in the draft.
NBADraft.net: Tyler Hansbrough, PF
DraftExpress: Sam Young, SF
ESPN: Gani Lawal, PF

#26 CHICAGO BULLS (FROM NUGGETS)
Don’t be surprised if the Bulls package this pick with #16 to try to move up into the lottery and grab more of an impact player. The Bulls need quality players, not bodies.
NBADraft.net: Taj Gibson, PF
DraftExpress: Marcus Thornton, SG
ESPN: Toney Douglass, SG

#27 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (FROM MAGIC)
If the Grizzlies do take Thabeet at #2, don’t be surprised if they go power forward or point guard here. Do they feel better about Mike Conley or Hakim Warrick? That question might be answered by the position they draft here.
NBADraft.net: Derrick Brown, SF
DraftExpress: Tyler Hansbrough, PF
ESPN: Chase Budinger, GF

#28 MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (FROM CELTICS)
With three first round picks, don’t be surprised if the T-Wolves do some wheeling and dealing on draft day. If Minnesota goes with a good wing like DeRozan at #6, they could package this pick with #18 to move up and try to land Ty Lawson or Jonny Flynn in the early teens. Patty Mills seems like a good fit here if he’s available and the T-Wolves haven’t already drafted a point guard. He’s a great shooter who could space the court for Al Jefferson down low.
NBADraft.net: Terrence Williams, GF
DraftExpress: Darren Collison, PG
ESPN: Patty Mills, PG

#29 LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza are both going to be free agents this summer, so the Lakers biggest need is probably at SF, unless Jordan Farmar isn’t the future at the point. If the Lakers can get Sam Young here, it would be a coup. He’s NBA ready.
NBADraft.net: Sam Young, SF
DraftExpress: Wayne Ellington, GF
ESPN: DaJuan Summers, SF

#30 CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
The Cavs’ frontcourt is a little more unsettled than the backcourt. Ben Wallace, Anderson Varejao and Zydrunas Ilgauskas could all be in the final year of their contracts next season. That said, there isn’t much in the way of size this late in the draft. The Cavs could go international and let the player develop overseas for a year or two before bringing him over.
NBADraft.net: DaJuan Summers, SF
DraftExpress: Patrick Mills, PG
ESPN: Sam Young, SF

As the NFL draft rolls on over the next two days, I’ll post picks, thoughts and stay on top of any rumors that I hear and post them here. Enjoy.

2:55PM ET: Mike Mayock of the NFL Network claims that his “cell phone is blowing up” with reports that the Jets are trying to trade up to No. 2 for USC quarterback Mark Sanchez.

3:19PM ET: According to the South Florida Sun Sentinel, the Dolphins will select Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler at No. 25.

3:22PM ET: The Rams could trade back into the first round for middle linebacker Rey Maualuga according to NFL Network’s Steve Wyche.

3:38PM ET: I’m shocked the Chiefs passed on Aaron Curry, but all the pre-draft rumors that said Tyson Jackson would be their pick were obviously dead on. Jackson is the best 3-4 end in the draft and obvious was a commodity.

3:40PM ET: The Browns got exactly what they wanted with this trade. They weren’t in love with anyone at No.5 and managed to trade out. Great move – I wonder what kind of ransom the Browns got.

3:42PM ET: Mike Mayock just made a great point about the Jets trading up to No. 5. What team did they want to get ahead of to go all the way up to No. 5?

3:45PM ET: DE Kenyon Coleman, QB Brett Ratliff, S Abram Elam No. 17 and No. 57. A sleeper in this deal is Elam, who is one of the more promising safeties in the draft.

3:52PM ET: The Bengals select OT Andre Smith – another low character guy for their low-character roster. He is a tremendous talent, but he comes with a ton of baggage.

3:53PM ET: Mayock speculates that the Raiders will take a receiver, but not Michael Crabtree. In his last mock, he had them taking Darrius Heyward-Bey out of Maryland, which would be quite a shock. I can’t see Oakland passing on Crabtree at No. 7, but a sleeper could be OT Eugene Monroe.

4:21PM ET: Crabtree goes to the 49ers. Although word is that he turned teams off with his “diva” attitude, it’s amazing that this kid fell so far. He’s one of the best prospects in this draft and the Niners got a steal. He fits a need and he was the best player left on the board – great pick.

4:28PM ET: Bills select Aaron Maybin. This was a bit of a surprise considering the Bills’ need for an offensive tackle and Michael Oher is still on the board. But before they traded Jason Peters to the Eagles, pass rush was a major need and Maybin feels that need. He was one of the best pass-rushers in college football last year and while he could stand to add a little bulk to his frame, he could turn out to be terrific off the edge.

4:32PM ET: Broncos select Knowshon Moreno. This is a bit of a surprise considering Denver is switching to a 3-4 defense and they have needs to fill in the front seven. But Josh McDaniels is an offensive guy first and foremost, and Moreno is a stud. He doesn’t have elite speed, but he arguably has the best vision of any back in the draft and should do well in Denver.

4:39PM ET: Redskins select Brian Orakpo. This is another guy that fell. Orakpo was once considering a top 5 pick and he slid all the way to Washington at No. 13, who had a major need at defensive end after releasing Jason Taylor. Some say Orakpo played down to his competition at times, but anyone that saw his effort against Oklahoma and Texas Tech came away impressed.

4:47PM ET: Saints select Malcolm Jenkins. Jenkins had a brutal showing at the scouting combine, but his body of work at Ohio State was impressive. I’m a little surprised that the Saints didn’t address their linebacker position here, but after cutting Mike McKenzie, they had an obvious need at cornerback and Jenkins is less of a risk than Vontae Davis, who some believe is a risk given his attitude.

4:50PM ET: Texans select Brian Cushing. The Texans continue to upgrade their defense with the selection of Cushing, who was the best outside linebacker prospect in the draft after Aaron Curry. The knock on Cushing is that he might be more of a bodybuilder than a football player, but I’d say that more fits his former USC teammate Clay Matthews.

4:55PM ET: Chargers select Larry English. This is a bit of a surprise and it’s no knock on English. With Rey Maualuga on the board, I’m surprised they went English, but at least he’s a fit for the 3-4. English was one of the best players in the MAC and he was a force as a pass-rusher. The Bolts didn’t have a ton of holes to fill, so maybe English was the top player left on their board and they took him.

4:59PM ET: Browns trade the 17th pick to the Bucs for the 19th and the 191st. What a great day for the Browns in terms of value. They’re probably still going to address a need and they keep acquiring more picks.

5:01PM ET: Bucs select Josh Freeman. I could look like an absolute idiot (nothing new) in a few years, but I think this is an awful pick. If this weren’t a weak QB class, there’s no way Freeman would have been taken in the first round. He has a ton of talent and he’s a good kid, but he’s incredibly raw and I think he’s going to have time reading NFL defenses. Again, hammer me if you think I’m wrong. But the Bucs are jam packed at quarterback and one could argue they don’t have a quality starter among them.

5:11PM ET: Eagles select Jeremy Maclin. The Browns once again traded back, this time with the Eagles, who added a dynamic playmaker in Maclin. I’m a bit surprised that they would trade up. Who were they worried about getting ahead of? The Lions? Doesn’t make much sense.

5:26PM ET: Lions select Brandon Pettigrew. I don’t get it – I really don’t. The Lions have needs at offensive tackle and middle linebacker, both Michael Oher and Rey Maulauga are on the board, and they take a tight end. The only way I can spin this pick is that dome teams tend to struggle defensively (they rarely rank in the top 10 defensively at years end). So Martin Mayhew addresses the offense first and foremost and gives Stafford a nice target in the passing game to go along with Calvin Johnson.

5:41PM ET: Browns select Alex Mack. This was a bit of a surprise because of what the Browns need, but Mack is a great prospect. He’s the best center in the draft and obviously Cleveland felt that they could nab one of the best players available at No. 21 and fill their linebacker need later with one of their many second round picks. This was a surprise (and maybe a reach?) with Everrette Brown still on the board, but the Browns still got a quality prospect.

5:50PM ET: Vikings select Percy Harvin. Speculation had it that the Vikings would take a receiver at this spot, although I’m a little surprised that they took Harvin despite rumors that said they had removed all prospects who had poor character. Regardless, Harvin has loads of potential and could be explosive opposite Bernard Berrian in the Vikings’ offense.

6:06PM ET: Ravens select Michael Oher. No surprise – the Patriots traded down in a draft. Oher is a fantastic value at this spot and fills a need for the Ravens. I’m shocked he lasted this long and I think Baltimore got a steal.

6:10PM ET: Falcons select Peria Jerry. The Falcons definitely addressed a need and Jerry is a tremendous value at this pick, but he’s projected as an under tackle and Atlanta desperately needs a nose. Jerry is essentially the same player as Jonathan Babineaux, who just received a new contract extension for his productive play. Still, maybe Mike Smith wants to use a smaller defensive line and go with more stunts next year. If Trey Lewis returns to full health next season, then Jerry fits in well and could give the Falcons another pass rusher along with John Abraham.

6:27PM ET: Dolphins select Vontae Davis. I love it. Davis’s attitude has been questioned in the past, but obviously Bill Parcells isn’t concerned is too upset about it. Davis has tremendous athleticism and could turn out to be a steal this late in the draft. Then again, he could be nothing more than an athletic marvel that gets abused by NFL receivers because he’s too aggressive. I trust Parcells’ judgment.

6:37PM ET: Packers trade their 2nd round pick and two 3rd rounders to New England in order to select Clay Matthews. This was, bar none, the worst trade of the day so far. The Packers did fill a need at outside linebacker, but the Patriots fleeced them for what could turn out to be a very overrated prospect in Matthews. This trade was mind-boggling and Ted Thompson should feel abused.

6:41PM ET: Quick question – did teams forget that USC linebacker Rey Maualuga is still on the board?

6:42PM ET: Colts select Donald Brown. Sucka what? This pick makes no sense. With Evander Hood and Ron Brace still on the board, I’m shocked the Colts went offense – more specifically, a running back. They have Joseph Addai and also took Michael Hart in the sixth round a year ago. Brown is a solid prospect, but I’m shocked the Colts went running back with their first pick with needs on defense.

6:49PM ET: Bills select Eric Wood. I’m a little surprised that with a need for offensive tackle, the Bills didn’t go with Eben Britton. But some felt as though Wood would get selected ahead of Alex Mack, so obviously the kid has a ton of talent. I’ll be shocked if Buffalo doesn’t take an OT in the second round.

7:06PM ET: Giants select Hakeem Nicks. No real surprise here. Since the G-Men couldn’t acquire Braylon Edwards from the Browns, they had an obvious need for a receiver and Nicks is one of the better route runners in the draft.

7:09PM ET: Titans select Kenny Britt. Just as I wrote for the Giants – no real surprise here. Tennessee was rumored to be interested in trading for Anquan Boldin, so obviously they wanted to address the wideout position, even though they signed Nate Washington this offseason. Britt is a nice big target and although he doesn’t have a ton of speed, he’s a great blocker and isn’t afraid to go over the middle.

7:23PM ET: Cardinals select Chris “Beanie” Wells. It’s surprising that a talented back like this fell this far, but the Cardinals got a steal. He’s similar to Tim Hightower in that he’s a bigger back, but Wells has more speed and Arizona now has a replacement for Edgerrin James, who will get his wish and be released soon.

7:26PM ET: Steelers select Evander Hood. If Hood can be a 3-4 nose, then this was a solid pick. The Steelers didn’t have a ton of needs obviously, so they take one of the best players on the board and add to their already stout defense.

This is it – the week NFL draft nuts have been waiting for. Soon enough, prospects will know what cities they’re headed to and draft mock experts everywhere will look like idiots when less than half of their predictions are correct despite spending hours of time researching the picks.

I say it every year – the NFL draft is a crapshoot in terms of trying to make predictions. Nobody knows how high prospects are rated on draft boards around the league except the teams themselves. So while it’s fun to project who will go where, nobody has a clue – not Mike Mayock, not Mel Kiper and certainly not Anthony Stalter. (Did I just refer to myself in the third person? What a joke.)

The following is my third and final mock of the first round. In my previous two mocks, I had some fun by predicting potential trades that could play out, but I won’t do it here. I’m playing this mock “straight up” because predicting trades in the first round is harder to do than predicting what kind of mood Billy Bob Thornton will be in when he sits down to give an interview. Zing!

Some of you will inevitably feel as though that I have teams reaching with their picks. That’s fine, but realize that reaches are going to happen come Saturday because they’re just a part of the draft. If you disagree with any of my picks, go ahead and let me hear about it in the comments section. After all, the NFL draft is a spectacle and it’s supposed to be fun for fans. Enjoy all the action on Saturday and good luck to your favorite team on draft weekend.

(Click here to see Mock Draft Version 1.0 and Mock Draft Version 2.0)

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Word is that the Lions aren’t completely sold on Stafford, which is why they have started contract negotiations with not only his agent, but also the representatives of Jason Smith and Aaron Curry. Considering how many holes the Lions have, it’s ludicrous for them to take a QB that they’re not 100% convinced can be their leader under center for years to come. But when has Detroit ever done anything that made sense? Matt Millen is nowhere near Allen Park these days, yet the general feeling is that the Lions are still going to screw up this pick. For the record, I think Curry should be their pick. He’s the best player in the draft, he fills a major need, would be cheaper to sign than either Stafford or Smith and linebacker is usually a safer pick in the first round. But what I think Detroit should do, and what I think they will do are two different things, which is why Stafford’s name is penciled in above.

2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
If the Lions select Smith at No. 1, then the Rams could go one of four ways. They could take the next best offensive tackle in Eugene Monroe, they could get their quarterback of the future in Matthew Stafford, they could fill their need for a No. 1 receiver and take Michael Crabtree, or they could go with the best defensive player in the draft and select Aaron Curry. Curry seems like the most likely choice, but again, any one of the prospects mentioned are viable options. If the Lions do pass on Smith, then he seems like a slam-dunk for the Rams, who are rumored to prefer him to Monroe. With Orlando Pace now in Chicago, St. Louis needs to address the gaping hole at left tackle and the athletic Smith would seemingly be a great fit.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
There’s a chance Curry might not fall to this spot and there’s an even bigger chance that the Chiefs will go with an offensive tackle to help protect new quarterback Matt Cassel. But chances are Curry will be available here and considering KC is making a switch to a new 3-4 defensive alignment, he would be a great fit. New GM Scott Pioli traded for Mike Vrabel and signed veteran free agent Zach Thomas this offseason, so obviously he’s making the linebacker position a priority. Pair Curry opposite Derrick Johnson and the Chiefs will have a nice set of young, athletic linebackers.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
There is a ton of speculation that the Seahawks will select USC quarterback Mark Sanchez here, which certainly would make sense. Matt Hasselbeck is 33 years old, is coming off an injury-plagued season and Seattle isn’t currently developing a young backup behind him (which is where Sanchez would come in). But with general manager Tim Ruskell recently saying that Hasselbeck is “as good as ever,” it’s hard to believe that Sanchez would be their pick here. Granted, Sanchez could still be viewed as a potential successor even if Hasselbeck is “as good as ever,” but it still seems far-fetched for Seattle to go that route with this pick. The bottom line is that even though the Hawks are coming off a disastrous year, they can easily rebound in a weak NFC West and they seem to still be in “win now” mode. Seattle wants right tackle Sean Locklear to eventually be Walter Jones’ successor on the left side, so Monroe could play guard until one of the tackle spots open up.

5. Cleveland Browns: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Earlier this week I went into detail about why I believe Sanchez will be the Browns’ pick at No. 5, which you can read here. But the long and short of it is that I fully believe that Cleveland will trade either quarterback Brady Quinn or wide receiver Braylon Edwards by the end of draft weekend, and therefore decided between either Sanchez or wideout Michael Crabtree at No. 5. And actually, I think the Browns will trade both Quinn and Edwards by the end of draft weekend, select Sanchez at No. 5 and then fill their wide receiver need later in the draft. If I’m wrong about all of these trade scenarios, then top defenders Aaron Curry, Brian Orakpo, B.J. Raji and Everrette Brown are all possibilities at this spot as well.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
The Bengals would love to replace former first round bust Levi Jones at left tackle, but what prospect will they go with? Some believe Oher would be a reach here and that Alabama’s Andre Smith would be a better fit for Cincy’s desire to fill its roster with questionable characters. But something tells me Mike Brown will go with the safer choice in Oher, whose draft stock has risen of late. He has great size, athleticism and comes with less baggage than Smith, who has tremendous talent, but has also had his weight, work ethic and motivation questioned in the past. Either way, unless they surprise and address another need such as running back, the Bengals will probably go with an offensive tackle at this spot.

7. Oakland Raiders: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Even though the Raiders have needs on the offensive and defensive lines, Crabtree might be too good to pass up here. There are concerns about his health after he had foot surgery following the college season, but there’s no doubt Crabtree is a gamer and he fills Oakland’s need to give quarterback JaMarcus Russell a true go-to receiver. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders select one of the top offensive tackles here or a defensive end like Brian Orakpo. But again if Crabtree falls, I highly doubt Al Davis will pass.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Considering Dennis Northcutt and Troy Williamson are the projected starters at receiver next season, there’s no doubt that the Jags need to address their gaping hole at wideout. But will it be with this pick? Maybe, especially if Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin are available, but don’t forget that head coach Jack Del Rio is a defensive-minded guy and that Jacksonville has always been known for its defense. The Jags traded Marcus Stroud to Buffalo last offseason because they felt Rob Meier could be as productive as a starter as he was in a three-man rotation in previous years. But he wasn’t, and Jacksonville’s defense struggled generating pressure from the interior. If Raji falls, he would be an excellent addition to the defensive line and he would surely benefit from playing alongside big John Henderson. Again, receiver is the top need for this team and nobody would be surprised if Jacksonville filled that hole with this pick. But Raji might be too good to pass up at this spot.

9. Green Bay Packers: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
The Packers have been quiet so far in free agency, which is surprising considering they’re switching to a 3-4 defensive scheme next year and don’t have 3-4 personnel currently on the roster. If B.J. Raji falls, I could definitely see Green Bay selecting him to use in a rotation at all three defensive line spots next season and eventually replacing Ryan Pickett (who is a free agent after the 2009 season) at nose tackle. But with the Jaguars stealing Raji a pick earlier, Jackson isn’t a bad fallback. Jackson isn’t much of a pass rusher, but he’s solid against the run and he’s big enough to play end in a 3-4, which is a major need for the Packers. Another option for GB here would be to go with either Brian Orakpo or Everette Brown and plug them into the outside linebacker position opposite Aaron Kampman. But the Pack are awfully thin along the defensive line and Jackson would be a solid, albeit unspectacular, addition.

10. San Francisco 49ers: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas
The 49ers have a nice group of young linebackers, which includes Patrick Willis and Manny Lawson. But the team is hurting for pass rushers and could use an outside linebacker that can provide a solid rush off the edge and get pressure on the quarterback. The knock on Orakpo is that he can play down to his competition, but there’s no doubt he wreaked havoc in the opponents’ backfields last season, most notably against Big 12 rivals Texas Tech and Oklahoma. He’s athletic enough to play outside linebacker in a 3-4 and under the guidance of Mike Singletary, he could turn out to be a productive player at the next level.

11. Buffalo Bills: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
The Bills need a pass rusher, which is why prospects like Everrette Brown and Aaron Maybin are major possibilities at this pick, but the Jason Peters trade changed everything. Now the top need is offensive tackle and although Smith comes with major baggage, there’s no denying that he has tremendous talent. The team took a chance by signing a dynamic personality in Terrell Owens this offseason, so they might be to a point now where talent supersedes all else. If Michael Oher falls, the Bills could look at him (regardless of whether or not Smith is still on the board) as well, but the overall feeling is that Buffalo will go with either an offensive tackle or a pass rusher at this spot.

12. Denver Broncos: Everrette Brown, OLB/DE, Florida State
Denver would love it if defensive tackle B.J. Raji fell to this spot so that they could plug him in at nose tackle in their new 3-4 defensive alignment, but it’s doubtful that he slips out of the top 10. The Broncos need a defender that can provide a decent rush off the edge and generate pressure on the quarterback. Brown was a force at Florida State and while there are some concerns about his lack of size, he should be able to transform into an outside linebacker in Denver’s 3-4 scheme, or play with his hand in the dirt as an end when the team goes with a 4-3 front. Brown’s stock has fallen has the draft nears, so the Broncos might look at Aaron Maybin from Penn State here, too.

13. Washington Redskins: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
If either Andre Smith or Michael Oher falls to this spot, I could see the Skins selecting one of them. But with both off the board in this mock, it’s hard to see them reaching for Eben Britton, who would be the next highest offensive tackle in this draft. This is one of the more difficult teams to figure out because if Daniel Snyder is in love with a prospect like Mark Sanchez or Aaron Curry, I could see him trading up. I could also see the Skins trading down and then selecting Britton or one of the top defensive ends later on. But if we’re playing this mock straight up, then I say Washington bypasses smaller defensive end prospects like Aaron Maybin and Larry English, and goes with the big-bodied Ayers, who has good size, is a reliable tackler and plays with a chip on his shoulder. The only thing is, he would be a reach here and if LSU’s Tyson Jackson falls, I could see the Skins preferring him to Ayers. Keep an eye on USC linebacker Rey Maualuga at this pick, too.

14. New Orleans Saints: Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
Some pundits think that the Saints will take a running back like Beanie Wells at this spot following the release of veteran Deuce McAllister this offseason. But with only one pick in the first three rounds, if the Saints stay here (as in, they don’t trade down in order to acquire more picks) then they’ll go defense. (Plus, they also have a highly productive Pierre Thomas waiting for a more extended role in the offense.) New Orleans’ most pressing defensive need is at outside linebacker, where Scott Fujita and Scott Shanle are quality starters, but neither of them makes a huge impact and both will turn 30 this year. Some feel as though Cushing is nothing more than a bodybuilder who posses as a football player, but that description better fits his former USC teammate Clay Matthews. Outside of having some durability concerns, Cushing is a solid tackler, flashes good athleticism and has decent range. He would be a solid pick for the Saints at this spot.

15. Houston Texans: Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State
Houston has bigger needs than running back, most notably at cornerback, defensive tackle and outside linebacker. But Wells might be too good to pass up at this spot and pair with speed back Steve Slaton. Wells has the best combination of size and speed of any back in the draft and could be one of the better picks of this year’s draft. Of course, many pundits thought that the Texans would draft a running back last year and they traded down and took offensive tackle Duane Brown.

16. San Diego Chargers: Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
The Chargers are one of the toughest teams to predict in the first round. Their biggest needs are arguably at defensive end now that Igor Olshansky signed with Dallas, a right tackle to uproot Jeromey Clary, and a future running back to supplant LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. But if they’re taking the best player available at this spot, then it’s Maualuga, who could turn out to be a tremendous two-down linebacker at the next level. If LSU’s Tyson Jackson or Tennessee’s Robert Ayers fall (which are decent possibilities), then the Bolts could go with one of them, or a surprise like Missouri DT Evander Hood. Trading down is also a major possibility, too.

17. New York Jets: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
New head coach Rex Ryan has done a nice job upgrading the defense this offseason with the additions of linebacker Bart Scott and cornerback Lito Sheppard. While the Jets could still stand to upgrade the defensive end position, wide receiver remains their most pressing need and Heyward-Bey would give them a player who has great size, speed and that can stretch the field in the vertical passing game.

18. Denver Broncos (from Chicago): Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
Reach! Reach! REAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACH! I know – this is a massive reach. I don’t really believe the Broncos would stay at this spot if they value Brace, which they might given their need for a 3-4 nose tackle. But since I’m not predicting any trades, I’ll pencil Brace into this spot but assume Denver is going to get him later in the draft after trading back. REEAAAAACCH!

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
The Bucs are moving away from the “Tampa 2” scheme under new head coach Raheem Morris and they need another pass-rushing threat opposite Gaines Adams on the defensive line. If Maybin falls to this spot, he would give Tampa a nice edge rusher and could provide pressure on the quarterback. He would also inject some youth at the position, with Kevin Carter set to turn 36 this year. Adding an interior lineman such as Peria Jerry, Evander Hood or Ron Brace is an option as well.

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas): Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Davis might not fall this far and the Lions could certainly look to address their need at offensive tackle with a player like Eben Britton. But Davis is the top cornerback prospect in the draft and he would fill an immediate need for Detroit. Some have questioned Davis’s character because he reportedly got into spats with the coaching staff at Illinois, but he’s an athletic marvel and could turn out to be a great pick if he stays motivated and keeps his head on straight.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
After trading for left tackle Jason Peters, the Eagles could go a variety of ways with this pick. Tight end remains a need and that means Oklahoma State’s Brandon Pettigrew is an option. Outside linebacker is also an area of concern with Omar Gaither losing his starting job to second-year undrafted player Akeem Jordan at the end of last year. But ultimately, Brian Westbrook turns 30 this year, is always an injury risk and Correll Buckhalter signed with Denver. The Eagles could trade out of his spot and still land a productive running back later on, but Moreno is one of the more underrated prospects in this entire draft. He doesn’t posses elite speed, but his vision is outstanding and some at Georgia have compared him to Hershel Walker.

22. Minnesota Vikings: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
Some might look at this pick and scoff considering the Vikings have two of the best defensive tackles in the league in Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. But they’re not necessarily deep at the position and Pat Williams is 36 and coming off injury. Jerry would also give them a nice interior pass-rusher and would certainly be a solid addition if Pat and Kevin are suspended for the start of the season for violating the league substance abuse policy last year. I could also see the Vikes selecting a possession receiver like Hakeem Nicks and a center like Alex Mack to fill the void left by Matt Birk.

23. New England Patriots: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Several media outlets (including Don Banks of SI.com) say that Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler is a lock to go to New England at this pick. Which is exactly why I’m going with Jenkins. Every time a player is a “lock” to go to a team past the top 10, it’s usually wrong and I don’t trust anything coming out of New England around this time because Bill Belichick is the last person to let any draft information leak. Jenkins is a perfect fit for Belichick’s scheme because he’s smart, intuitive and has a great head on his shoulders. He would be a solid pick here.

24. Atlanta Falcons: Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan
I’ve gone round and round with this pick for weeks. The Falcons have several needs including tight end, outside linebacker, defensive tackle, defensive end and safety. Everyone and their mother assumes that the Falcons are going to take Brandon Pettigrew if he’s available, but considering the tight end position is an afterthought in Mike Murlarkey’s offense, I bet they wait until later in the draft to fill that need. The top need is at defensive tackle, which makes Peria Jerry (if he’s available) and Evander Hood possibilities, although Hood is a better fit than Jerry because Jerry doesn’t play nose and that’s the position Atlanta needs to address. But at the end of the day, the safety class is weak this year and if Atlanta waits, it might not be able to address that need later in the draft. So they take Delmas here and wait to grab a DT, OLB and TE later in the draft. But I could see the Falcons going with any one of these prospects at No. 24: Pettigrew, Delmas, Hood, Clint Sintim and Clay Matthews.

25. Miami Dolphins: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
Miami doesn’t have much in terms of starting-quality cornerbacks outside of Will Allen. Smith is a very good athlete who doesn’t mind coming up to play the run and is fundamentally sound. He’s not the biggest prospect, but he seems like a Bill Parcells-type of athlete and has loads of experience.

26. Baltimore Ravens: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
The Ravens have needs at safety, cornerback and defensive end, but their interest in Anquan Boldin suggests that they might go wide receiver with this pick. Derek Mason is consistent, but he’s getting up there in age and Mark Clayton has not proved that he can make much of an impact. There might not be any way Maclin falls this far (he’s slated to go in the top 15), but if he does, he would be the ultimate steal at this spot.

27. Indianapolis Colts: Evander Hood, DT, Missouri
In my first two mocks, I said that Peria Jerry would be a slam-dunk at this pick, but I have him going No. 22 to the Vikings now, so Hood falls to Indy. The Colts have a major need at defensive tackle with Darrell Reid now in Denver and Hood (6’2”, 300 pounds) would give their defensive line much-needed bulk considering Keyunta Dawson and Eric Foster each weigh well under 275 pounds.

28. Buffalo Bills (from Carolina through Philadelphia): Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
There is a huge possibility that Pettigrew won’t fall this far, but if he does, he would seem like a lock to land in Buffalo. Some mock projections even have him going to the Bills at No. 11, although that seems like a bigger stretch than him falling to No. 28. Either way, Pettigrew would form a nice 1-2 combination with T.O. in the Bills’ offense.

29. New York Giants: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
What the hell do I do with this pick? If the G-Men don’t trade for Braylon Edwards, then a receiver is obviously needed, which is why I have Nicks penciled in at this spot. But if they do acquire Edwards, then tight end and safety become the two biggest needs and if Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas are both off the board, then it looks like the Giants will be reaching no matter what they do. Britt might not be available and if he isn’t, Hakeen Nicks is also a possibility.

30. Tennessee Titans: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
The Titans could use a corner to play opposite Cortland Finnegan once Nick Harper decides to call it quits. Butler has excellent quickness and athleticism, although he comes with some durability issues. Still, the former Husky is a smart, confident player and someone that Tennessee could bring along slowly to eventually replace Harper.

31. Arizona Cardinals: Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois
Is English a great fit for the Cardinals? Maybe not, but they do have needs at both defensive end and outside linebacker and English is the best hybrid prospect left on the board. Arizona needs another pass rusher, which is what English excelled at in college. Some have compared him to a poor man’s Terrell Suggs, which certainly bodes well for English’s potential.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
Considering he’s the best guard prospect in the draft, Robinson might not last to the 32nd pick in the first round. But if he does, the Steelers would instantly upgrade their guard position with the 6’5”, 329-pound former Sooner. Robinson has outstanding strength and is very powerful.

I’m saying the over/under on correct picks for this mock is 7 and I’m taking the under. Anyone taking the over so I can feel good about myself?

In my first attempt to project the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft, I predicted the Lions to take Georgia’s Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick, Alabama’s offensive tackle Andre Smith to fall out of the top 15 and I also drummed up a potential swap between the Browns and 49ers so that San Fran could land USC signal caller Mark Sanchez.

But to paraphrase that overactor Nicholas Cage in “The Rock”: Gee, kind of a lot has happened since then. Most notably the Bears sending two first round picks to the Broncos for quarterback Jay Cutler and the Giants’ release of receiver Plaxico Burress.

Here’s my second attempt at projecting the first round of this month’s draft. As always, feel free to criticize in the comments section, but remember that I’m a human – I have feelings, too, damn it. So be gentle.

(Click here to see Mock Draft Version 1.0)

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Mock 1.0 Projection: Stafford
Nothing in the past couple of weeks has changed my mind about Stafford eventually winding up in Detroit. GM Martin Mayhew reportedly wants to trade this selection because of the financial burden that is bestowed upon having the top overall pick, but other teams don’t want it for the same reason. In the end, Jason Smith (Baylor) and Eugene Monroe (Virginia) are both very good options here, but the Lions were reportedly very impressed with Stafford’s private workout and you know what? They simply need a quarterback.

2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
Mock 1.0 Projection: Smith
Smith could go to the Lions at No. 1 and if he does, I firmly believe St. Louis would then select Virginia offensive tackle Eugene Monroe, who apparently turned in a solid private workout for the Rams in mid March. After Orlando Pace was released (and subsequently signed with the Bears), the need for a left tackle became paramount for the Rams. Considering the entire offense revolves around opening holes for running back Steven Jackson and trying to keep quarterback Marc Bulger on his feet, St. Louis taking an offensive tackle seems like a lock.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
Mock 1.0 Projection: Curry
The Chiefs could really use a right tackle to pair with last year’s first round pick, Branden Albert, but Curry would be too good to pass up here. GM Scott Pioli put a premium on versatile defenders while he was in New England, and that’s exactly what Curry is. The Wake Forest product could play either outside or inside in any defensive scheme and is easily the best defensive prospect in this year’s draft.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
Mock 1.0 Projection: Monroe
The Seahawks would love to see Curry fall to No. 4, but it’s doubtful that he would slip past the Chiefs at No. 3 unless KC values Monroe more. Walter Jones is still extremely effective for his age, but the Hawks need to start grooming someone to take his place. Seattle also has interest in USC quarterback Mark Sanchez, or is at least feigning interest. If teams like the 49ers or Broncos also have interest in Sanchez, them maybe the Seahawks can trade down and acquire another pick or two.

5. Cleveland Browns: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Mock 1.0 Projection: Traded to San Francisco, 49ers select QB Mark Sanchez
In my first mock, I had the Browns trading this pick to the 49ers, but I’m not feeling as ballsy as I was that day. Personally I think Cleveland is screwed. They really need linebackers, but none of the top ‘backers after Wake’s Aaron Curry – Brian Orakpo, Everette Brown, Brian Cushing, Rey Maualuga – are worthy of the fifth overall pick. Plus, with their signing of free agent inside linebacker Eric Barton (who played for Eric Mangini in New York), Cleveland would probably pass on Maualuga (who some Browns fans are clamoring for) anyway. So unless they can trade down and get more value, they’ll either have to reach at this pick or take a surprise like Crabtree. The Giants released receiver Plaxico Burress last week and there has been speculation for months that New York is interested in Braylon Edwards. If the Browns send Edwards to New York and acquire an OLB like Mathias Kiwanuka in return, then Crabtree makes a ton of sense here.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
Mock 1.0 Projection: Oher
Oher is a reach here, there’s no doubt about it. But I think the Bengals are finally starting to learn their lesson in regards to drafting potentially bad apples, so they’ll stay away from Alabama’s Andre Smith. Oher is projected to go 15-20, but so what? He’s the third best offensive tackle on the board after Jason Smith (Baylor) and Eugene Monroe (Virginia) and his stock has steadily climbed since the scouting combine. If he becomes a Pro Bowler in three years, will anyone criticize the Bengals for taking him at No. 6 instead of No. 15? No. Obviously if they can trade down and still nab him 15-20, then all the better. But trading out of the top 10 is harder than fans realize.

7. Oakland Raiders: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Mock 1.0 Projection: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
If Crabtree were still available, I think there’s little doubt that Al Davis will go with the Texas Tech product. But with Crabtree coming off the board to Cleveland at No. 5, Davis could try to fill another need by taking DT B.J. Raji (Boston College) or one of the offensive tackles like Michael Oher (Ole Miss) or Andre Smith (Alabama). But in the end, this is Al Davis we’re talking about and I think he’ll go with speed. The Raiders have an obvious need at receiver and Maclin is one of the most explosive playmakers in the entire draft. Is he a good fit for Oakland’s offense? Who cares – he has speed!

8. Denver Broncos (via trade with Jacksonville): Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Mock 1.0 Projection: Jacksonville selected Jeremy Maclin
After the Broncos traded Jay Cutler to Chicago, I’m going to bite on the rumors and predict Denver trades up to this spot to take Sanchez. The Jaguars have an obvious need at receiver, but with Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin off the board, they could trade down and try and get more value. Rumor has it that the Jags are interested in Sanchez, but maybe that is just a smokescreen and now that Denver has an obvious need at quarterback, Jacksonville can sell this pick to the highest bidder.

9. Green Bay Packers: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Mock 1.0 Projection: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
After making the decision to switch to the 3-4 and then subsequently sitting on their hands in free agency, the Packers have a ton of holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball. They need an outside linebacker to play opposite Aaron Kampman and a defensive end to play opposite Cullen Jenkins. But prospects like Brian Orakpo (Texas) and Everette Brown (Florida State) would have to make the switch from 4-3 ends in college to 3-4 outside linebackers in the NFL. So why doesn’t Green Bay just take one of the best players available in Raji, who can play tackle in either a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme and not have to worry about Orakpo or Brown having to make an adjustment? The Packers are counting on Ryan Pickett to play nose in their 3-4 scheme, but he becomes a free agent after the 2009 season and is already 30. GB can take Raji here (assuming GM Ted Thompson wasn’t turned off by a report that claims Raji failed a drug test at the scouting combine), and then try to address their need at linebacker and end later in the draft.

10. San Francisco 49ers: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
Mock 1.0 Projection: Traded to Cleveland, Browns select OLB/DE Everette Brown
I originally had the 49ers swapping picks with Cleveland in order to select Mark Sanchez, but that seemed like a reach then and it seems like a reach now. Andre Smith’s issues have been well documented and I think there’s a chance he could fall past the top 15. But with Michael Oher and Mark Sanchez off the board and given the Niners’ desperate need at offensive tackle, I could see San Fran taking a shot on Smith. And quite frankly, I hope the kid does wind up getting tutelage from a head coach like Mike Singletary because he has too much talent to waste.

11. Buffalo Bills: Brian Orakpo, DE Texas
Mock 1.0 Projection: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
The Bills desperately need a guard, but there aren’t any available worthy of the No. 11 pick. Instead, Buffalo addresses their pass rush need with Orakpo, who might not last this long. Other end possibilities are Aaron Maybin of Penn State and Everette Brown of Florida State. Orakpo has some durability concerns and he can be inconsistent at times, but he was one of the best pass rushers in the nation in college and has incredible athleticism.

12. Jacksonville Jaguars (via trade with Denver): Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
Mock 1.0 Projection: Denver selected B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
The Jags could stand to upgrade their defensive tackle and cornerback positions, but unfortunately there aren’t any worth taking here. So they try to address the black hole that is their wideout position with Harvin, and pray he doesn’t become the next in a long line of busts at receiver. Harvin has incredible speed and could offer the Jags plenty of options in their offense.

13. Washington Redskins: Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
Mock 1.0 Projection: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
The Skins might address their need at offensive tackle if Alabama’s Andre Smith and Ole Miss’s Michael Oher are still on the board. But taking a defensive end makes more sense at this point, especially after the team released Jason Taylor. Brown lacks the ideal size and strength to play end at the next level (which is why some envision him as a 3-4 outside linebacker), but he’s incredibly quick and is one of the top pass rushers in this year’s draft.

14. New Orleans Saints: Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
Mock 1.0 Projection: Cushing
Some believe the Saints will look at a running back, most notably Ohio State’s Chris “Beanie” Wells. But this team only has one pick in the first three rounds so they surely won’t use it on offense. After signing safety Darren Sharper in free agency, outside linebacker becomes New Orleans’ biggest need and Cushing certainly helps fill that void. One of four Trojan linebackers that could be taken on day one, Cushing is a big-time workhorse and a football player in every sense of the word.

15. Houston Texans: Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State
Mock 1.0 Projection: Wells
The Texans could use a hard-hitting strong safety, but prospects like Western Michigan’s Louis Delmas and Missouri’s William Moore would be reaches at No. 15. Houston could also upgrade the outside linebacker spot, but with Brian Cushing coming off the board a pick earlier, Beanie Wells looks awfully intriguing. Steve Slaton proved that he can get it done at the next level, but he needs a complement and Wells, who can run between the tackles and outside, could help in that department.

16. San Diego Chargers: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
Mock 1.0 Projection: Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
The Chargers simply don’t have a ton of holes to fill, but seem destined to take a running back at some point during the draft given the long-term uncertainty surrounding LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. If Beanie Wells is still available, he’s an option here, or the Chargers could wait and try and nab Connecticut’s Donald Brown in the second round. But people seem to be forgetting how good Moreno is and how good he can be. He’s not the fastest back in the draft, but he has outstanding vision and could turn out to be one of the true first round sleepers of this draft.

17. New York Jets: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Mock 1.0 Projection: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
In my first mock, I had the Jets taking Davis but as a reader reminded me, I forgot that they had already acquired Lito Sheppard from the Eagles early this offseason and therefore corner isn’t a pressing need. Receiver certainly is, however, after the team released Laveranues Coles (who signed with the Bengals). Heyward-Bey is one of the fastest prospects in the entire draft and could pair nicely with Jerricho Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey.

18. Denver Broncos (via trade with Chicago): Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
Mock 1.0 Projection: Chicago selected Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
The Broncos have a need at cornerback, so Illinois’ Vontae Davis and Ohio State’s Malcolm Jenkins make sense here. But with their switch to 3-4, the Broncos desperately need linebackers and if Maualuga is still around at No. 18, he would be a tremendous pickup. The Broncos have been getting by with smaller, fast linebackers for years but Maualuga would be a perfect fit for a team that wants to get nastier against the run.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
Mock 1.0 Projection: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
I had Tampa taking Freeman at this spot in my first mock, but the more I play with the idea in my mind, the less I see it happening. The Bucs could really use an upgrade at the defensive end spot opposite Gaines Adams with Kevin Carter set to turn 36 and Greg “Stylez G.” White’s production dipping last year. Maybin might not last this long (in my original mock I had Buffalo taking him at No. 11), but if he does, he would provide Tampa with a nice upgrade and give the team a pair of bookends that really can get after the passer.

20. Detroit Lions: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Mock 1.0 Projection: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
The Lions have always had a huge need at cornerback and after they allowed Leigh Bodden to walk in free agency, the position is once again a major concern. Davis has the athletic talent to be a top 10 pick, but his work ethic and motivation have often been questioned, which could allow him to drop. The Lions have a major need at offensive tackle, but they could grab Davis here and then address their line needs with the first pick in the second round.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
Mock 1.0 Projection: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
After allowing L.J. Smith to bolt via free agency, the Eagles could use an upgrade at tight end if they don’t feel that Brent Celek is ready to be a full-time starter. Pettigrew is the best tight end prospect in the draft and not only is he a solid pass-catcher, but he’s a decent blocker as well.

22. Minnesota Vikings: Alex Mack, C, California
Mock 1.0 Projection: Mack
Center isn’t the sexiest pick in the first round (in fact, it’s about the least sexiest outside of kicker and punter), but the departure of Matt Birk left a gaping hole in the middle of the Vikings’ offensive line. Mack is extremely smart (not unlike Birk) and is physical and aggressive at the point of attack.

23. New England Patriots: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Mock 1.0 Projection: Clint Sintim, OLB, Virginia
The Pats value their linebackers, but they can’t ignore their defensive back concerns. Youngsters Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite struggled last year as rookies and Jenkins seems like the perfect fit for Bill Belichick’s defensive scheme. Jenkins isn’t as athletic as fellow corner prospect Vontae Davis, but he’s instinctive, smart and could really excel under Belichick’s guidance.

24. Atlanta Falcons: Clint Sintim, OLB, Virginia
Mock 1.0 Projection: Clay Matthews, OLB, USC
Some believe the Falcons will select Ole Miss’ Peria Jerry here because of their need at defensive tackle. Atlanta does have a need at DT, but the problem is that Jerry doesn’t fit their scheme. The team already has a quality under tackle in Jonathan Babineaux and Jerry is too close in size and build to him. Jerry can’t play nose, which is the position the Falcons need. Atlanta believes youngster Stephen Nicholas can beat out Coy Wire or Mike Peterson at one of the outside linebacker positions. And if the team could add a quality prospect like Sintim, he could groom at the other outside ‘backer position under Wire or Peterson.

25. Miami Dolphins: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
Mock 1.0 Projection: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Miami doesn’t have much in terms of starting-quality cornerbacks outside of Will Allen. Smith is a very good athlete who doesn’t mind coming up to play the run and is fundamentally sound. He’s not the biggest prospect, but he seems like a Bill Parcells-type of athlete and has loads of experience.

26. Baltimore Ravens: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
Mock 1.0 Projection: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
Britt might be a reach here, but the Ravens need some playmakers on the offensive side of the ball and the Rutgers’ product is one of the more polished receivers in the draft. Britt was incredibly productive at Rutgers and always seemed to produce in the clutch. Baltimore needs to do something at the position with Derrick Mason already turning 35.

27. Indianapolis Colts: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
Mock 1.0 Projection: Jerry
This just seems like a slam dunk pick. The Colts need a run-stuffing defensive tackle and while Jerry doesn’t have a ton of size or bulk, he fits Indy’s style of defense because he’s quick and explosive.

28. Philadelphia Eagles: Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan
Mock 1.0 Projection: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
Since I have the Eagles taking Pettigrew with their first pick this round, they could fill their need at safety with Delmas. Western Michigan’s secondary was abused plenty this year, but Delmas was the one true standout (in a positive way, that is). He doesn’t have a ton of speed, but he’s incredibly tough and physical, was a four-year started in college and is a true team leader. He probably won’t make Philly fans forget about Brian Dawkins anytime soon, but Delmas could turn out to be a very productive player.

29. New York Giants: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
Mock 1.0 Projection: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
What the hell do I do with this pick? If the G-Men don’t trade for Braylon Edwards, then a receiver is obviously needed, which is why I have Nicks penciled in at this spot. But if they do acquire Edwards, then tight end and safety become the two biggest needs and if Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas are both off the board, then it looks like the Giants will be reaching no matter what they do. Nicks is a reach, but he addresses a need.

30. Tennessee Titans: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
Mock 1.0 Projection: Butler
The Titans could use a corner to play opposite Cortland Finnegan once Nick Harper decides to call it quits. Butler has excellent quickness and athleticism, although he comes with some durability issues. Still, the former Huskie is a smart, confident player and someone that Tennessee could bring along slowly to eventually replace Harper.

31. Arizona Cardinals: Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
Mock 1.0 Projection: Brace
Starting nose tackle Bryan Robinson is 34 and although the team re-signed Gabe Watson, he’s not a long-term solution at the position. Brace definitely benefited from playing alongside B.J. Raji at Boston College, but he projects into a 3-4 nose tackle because he has the ability to shoot the gaps and give a good push up front. He has excellent size at 6’3”, 334 pounds.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
Mock 1.0 Projection: Robinson
Considering he’s the best guard prospect in the draft, Robinson might not last to the 32nd pick in the first round. But if he does, the Steelers would instantly upgrade their guard position with the 6’5”, 329-pound former Sooner. Robinson has outstanding strength and is very powerful.