Top 10 reasons why it’s okay that fantasy football season is over
Posted by John Paulsen (01/06/2010 @ 3:30 pm)
Originally published 12/28/07. Updated 1/6/10.
It’s that time of year again. Much like the post-draft letdown all fantasy owners go through in August or September, the end of the fantasy football season can be a depressing time indeed. I know a lot of baseball fans are already looking forward to spring training and their fantasy baseball drafts, but I’m not a baseball guy, so I need to look elsewhere for comfort. Here are 10 reasons why it’s good that the fantasy football season is finally over. (Seriously, guys, it’s not that bad.)
1. Your busted picks won’t haunt you anymore.
Just think about it: you don’t have to set your lineup for another nine months. No more looking at the injured Michael Turner or the disappointing Brian Westbrook wasting away on your bench. You can add Larry Johnson, Terrell Owens, Marshawn Lynch, Ronnie Brown, Steve Slaton and Matt Forte to that list. All of these guys were early picks that managed to sabotage fantasy seasons to one degree or another. If you only had one of these guys on your team, count yourself lucky. Two or more and your season was probably over before it started.
2. You can start (truly) rooting for your favorite team.
No more fragmented alliances. If you have a favorite team (and who doesn’t?), chances are that at one point or another, you were rooting against them this year. Either your favorite team was playing against a particular player on your fantasy team, or you needed a field goal instead of an extra point from your favorite team’s kicker. At some point, you wanted your team – whose colors you claim to bleed – to fail, somehow or someway. The best thing to do is fess up, ask forgiveness, and cheer as loudly as you can if your team was fortunate enough to make the playoffs.
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Posted in: College Basketball, College Football, Fantasy Football, March Madness, NBA, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009-10 College Basketball, 2010 NBA free agency, BCS Championship Game, BCS Mess, Fantasy Football, March Madness
The extraordinary depth of the TE position
Posted by John Paulsen (01/04/2010 @ 1:30 pm)
By the time the fantasy football season is over, I usually want to crawl into a hole and forget about the topic for a few weeks. But one thing occurred to me as I watched the Week 17 games — there really are a lot of quality TEs out there.
Take a look at 2009′s scoring breakdown for TE1 through TE12, for a high-performance, PPR league compared to the five previous years:

In short, nine slots (TE3, and TE5-TE12) set six-year records. There was unprecedented depth at TE in 2009.
What does this mean for 2010?
Well, there are no fewer than eleven players that I’d feel very comfortable with heading into next season: Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis, Brent Celek, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow, Heath Miller, Owen Daniels and Chris Cooley (provided they look strong in training camp), and star-in-the-making Jermichael Finley.
Moreover, there are a few more guys whose stock could rise (or stay high) if their environment improves (or stays consistent). For example, Zach Miller (6.2-63-0.3 over the last six games) emerged as the Raiders’ most consistent receiver after JaMarcus Russell was benched. Visanthe Shiancoe should have another top 10 year if Brett Favre plays another season. Greg Olsen (TE10, ranked 8th in targets amongst TEs) should have a better year with another offseason to work with Jay Cutler. John Carlson (TE13, 10th in TE targets) played a lot better with Matt Hasselbeck under center than without. Dustin Keller should improve alongside Matt Sanchez. Even Kevin Boss showed starter potential once he finally got healthy.
That’s 17 players, and I haven’t even yet mentioned grizzled vets Jeremy Shockey or Todd Heap, who each showed flashes of their old selves and different points in the season.
Throw in the fact that Dallas Clark’s stock may slide due to the return of Anthony Gonzalez, and 2010 is shaping up to be a year when fantasy owners would be wise to wait on the TE position. It will obviously still pay to have a stud TE, but with this many quality players, there’s no telling who those studs will be. Would you be shocked if Brent Celek or Vernon Davis outscored Dallas Clark and/or Antonio Gates next season? Me either.
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Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 17
Posted by John Paulsen (01/02/2010 @ 2:35 pm)
Most fantasy football leagues held their championship games last week, but there are still a few holdout leagues that schedule their title games for Week 17. To that end, here are a few players that I like, and a few that I don’t.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.


The Steelers need a win, and Ben Roethlisberger has a great matchup against the Dolphins’ 23rd-ranked pass defense (allowing 236 yards, 1.3 TD per game)…The Giants have struggled to stop the pass of late and phoned it in against the Panthers last week, so Brett Favre should have a good game, especially since the Vikings need to win…The Browns have a sketchy pass defense, so David Garrard should have a nice line in a game that the Jags have to win to have a shot at the postseason…Desperate? Josh Freeman has a nice matchup against the Falcons, who are ranked 28th against the pass. Matt Ryan and Co. looked pretty good in Week 16, so the Bucs will likely have to throw to stay in the game.
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Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009 fantasy football week 17, 2009 NFL Week 17, Fantasy Football, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football week 17, fantasy football week 17 busts, fantasy football week 17 sleepers, fantasy football week 17 start sit, Headlines, Love 'Em & Leave 'Em
If Nostradamus were in your fantasy football league…
Posted by John Paulsen (12/31/2009 @ 1:10 pm)
It’s draft day, 2009, and you’ve just arrived at your buddy Phil’s house for your league’s fantasy draft. Fat ass Tank is already there.
Tank: Where’s your guy?
You: Should be here any minute.
Tank: He’s solid?
You: Yeah, I guess. He’s my long-lost uncle. I met him at our family reunion last month. He said if I knew of any fantasy leagues to let him know.
Phil: I can’t believe Ken’s wife forbade him to play the day before the draft. She forbade him.
Tank: Ridiculous.
There’s a knock on the door.
Tank: That’s your guy?
Phil answers the door. It’s your Uncle Nostradamus.
Nostradamus: What up, playas?
Tank: Nice beard.
Phil: Thanks for filling in last minute.
Nostradamus: No worries. Where is everyone?
Tank: We’ve got them on speakerphone.
Nostradamus: Sweet. Let’s do this. What’s my pick?
Phil: Well, Ken – the man with no testicles — had the #1 overall pick, so you get to go first. You know how to play?
Nostradamus: Is this a PPR league?
Phil: Yep. 18 rounds. You’re up.
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Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 17
Posted by John Paulsen (12/29/2009 @ 6:18 pm)

Most leagues held their championship games last week, but if you’re league is still going, feel free to post your lineup questions here and I’ll do my best to answer them. Be sure to provide your lineup requirements and the type of scoring system your league uses (standard, PPR, TD-heavy).
Fire away.
Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009 fantasy football week 17, 2009 NFL Draft, 2009 NFL Week 17, Fantasy Football, fantasy football advice, Fantasy Football Q&A, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football week 17, fantasy Q&A, Headlines
Waiver Wire Watch: Week 17
Posted by John Paulsen (12/29/2009 @ 8:00 am)
For all intents and purposes, the fantasy football season is over. Most leagues (wisely) hold their championships in Week 16 to avoid the kind of debacle situation that happened yesterday in the Colts game.
So in lieu of our normal list of waiver wire pickups, I’m going to list a few guys that might be able to help a team that has another game to play in Week 17. I’m looking for two things: 1) the player is readily available on the waiver wire and 2) has a good matchup in Week 17.
Josh Freeman (2.6)
Freeman has averaged 208 yards and 1.1 TD in eight starts and has a nice matchup with a sketchy Falcons defense in Week 17. He throws a lot of picks (2.0 per game), but if you’re in a league that doesn’t penalize too heavily for INTs, he wouldn’t be a bad Week 17 play. Atlanta’s offense is picking up now that Matt Ryan is back under center so the Bucs will probably have to throw to stay in the game.
Justin Forsett (54.6)
Julius Jones re-aggravated his ankle and ribs against the Packers, so expect Forsett to carry the load in Week 17 against a Titans defense that had trouble keeping LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles in check. Forsett is a Sproles-like back, so he should have success against Tennessee.
Donald Brown (58.1)
Brown will probably get the start against the Bills’ league-worst rush defense. Don’t let his numbers (16 carries, 22 yards, TD) against the Jets worry you. He should have a big game against the hapless Bills.
Sammy Morris (33.0)
It looks like Laurence Maroney fumbled his way out of the Pats’ RB1 job. He had four carries for 22 yards before fumbling the ball on his fifth carry as he headed into the endzone. Sammy Morris took over and rushed the ball 12 times for 95 yards and a TD. Moreover, he has a pretty good matchup in Week 17 with the Texans.
Austin Collie (37.6)
He doesn’t have a great matchup (BUF), but the Bills were torched last week against the Falcons, and with Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and Dallas Clark likely limited or sidelined, Collie could be in for a big day.
Muhsin Muhammad (17.2)
Muhammad’s days of consistent domination are long over, but with Steve Smith sidelined with a broken arm, Muhammad figures to get the lion’s share of targets in a very good matchup against the Saints. New Orleans should be able to put some points on the board, so expect the Panthers to throw the ball to try to stay in the game.
Jermichael Finley (26.7)
He’s still out there on almost three-quarters of ESPN waiver wires and I have no idea why. He has gone over 70 yards receiving in four consecutive games and has three TD in that span. With a nice matchup against Arizona in Week 17, another nice outing is likely.
Todd Heap (38.8)
The four TD that Heap has scored the last two weeks came completely out of nowhere — zero TD in the previous 11 games — but he seems to be rolling now and although the Raiders aren’t a great matchup, he is a big target in the Ravens’ passing game, especially with Mark Clayton sidelined and Derrick Mason banged up.
David Thomas (1.7)
As long as Jeremy Shockey is sidelined, Thomas is a starter-caliber TE, at least in PPR leagues. He has 13 catches for 102 yards over the last two weeks, so if Shockey sits again, Thomas should have a solid outing against a Carolina defense that is better against wideouts than it is against tight ends.
Photo from fOTOGLIF
Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009 fantasy football week 17, 2009 NFL Week 17, Fantasy Football, fantasy football pickups, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football waiver wire, fantasy football waiver wire pickups, fantasy football week 17, Headlines, waiver wire watch
Fantasy Fallout: Week 16
Posted by John Paulsen (12/28/2009 @ 8:00 am)
Tom Brady & Randy Moss
This duo came through in a big way in Week 16. Brady threw for 267 yards and four TD while Moss had 4-45 and three TD. Moss also came up pretty big in Week 15 (5-70-1), but anyone that had Brady going that week probably wasn’t playing in the title game in Week 16. (He only threw for 115 yards and a TD against the Bills.)
Matt Ryan & Roddy White
I own a few leagues with a buddy of mine and we were in a quandary at QB. We had Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel on our roster, but neither guy was very appealing this week. Cutler seems to have given up on the season and Cassel had a bad matchup against a good Bengals defense. Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman were on the waiver wire and we ended up going with Freeman because he had been quite solid since taking over as the starter in Tampa. We figured that a matchup with the Saints would offer plenty of opportunity to throw. Besides, Ryan was facing the Bills who had been great against opposing QBs in recent weeks. Well, we should have gone with Matty Ice. He threw for 250 yards and three TD, and we would have won had we plugged him in. His favorite target, Roddy White, also rewarded owners that stuck with him after he had averaged 3-37 over the last two weeks. He posted 8-139-2 against the Bills, and will be the difference in more than a few championship games this week.
Todd Heap
All Heap did the last two weeks was catch seven balls for 93 yards and four TD. That’s right — four TD. Funny story: In my auction league, when Owen Daniels went down midseason and I unwisely gambled all of my bidding bucks on Chris Cooley’s failed comeback attempt, I ended up trading away Laurence Maroney for Todd Heap, and I didn’t start him in Week 15 or Week 16. What can I say? The guy averaged 2.5-28-0.0 the previous four weeks. Who knew he’d catch four TD in the next two games? Anyone forced to start him got a nice surprise in the fantasy playoffs.
Jonathan Stewart
It must have been a tough week to have DeAngelo Williams and not have Stewart as a backup. He had 28 carries for 206 yards and a TD against a Giants team that desperately needed a win. That’s impressive. In Week 15, he had 109 yards and a score against the Vikings, who have one of the best rush defenses in the league. Let this be a lesson to those owners who draft Williams next season — you better get Stewart as insurance.
Donovan McNabb & Brent Celek
The Eagles almost lost the game, but McNabb posted a great line that probably won a few fantasy championships this week. He had 322 yards, three TD and also ran for 29 yards. As a result, Celek was a difference-maker at TE this week. He went for 4-121-1, catching a 47-yard pass from McNabb in the second quarter.
Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark & Joseph Addai
We were all ready to bench our Indy studs in Week 16, figuring that they’d play maybe a half of football before leaving the game. But then Manning tells Rachel Nichols this morning that he thinks he would play a full game if it stayed competitive. Suddenly, fantasy owners were scrambling to get these Colts back in the lineup. Sure enough, midway through the third with the game still very competitive, Indy pulled its starters. Manning finished with 192 yards and zero TD, Addai with 40 yards and a TD, Clark with 4-57 and Wayne with 3-33. Fantasy owners with Addai or Clark in their starting lineups probably got by with their limited output, but those that had Manning or Wayne found themselves behind the eight ball.
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Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 16
Posted by John Paulsen (12/23/2009 @ 6:19 pm)
It’s championship week in most fantasy football leagues, so it’s not a good time to get cute. There’s a saying — dance with the guy that brought you. In other words, don’t bench a stud unless you have to.
On the subject of the Colts…
At this point, only Indianapolis appears to be ready to rest its players, so I’d expect Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark and Pierre Garcon to play a half of football. Moreover, the Jets are a pretty bad matchup, so it’s (relatively) safe to bench those Colts. It’s unfortunate that fantasy owners are forced to bench these players in such a crucial week, but this is a great argument for a fantasy league to end its playoffs in Week 15.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.


Philip Rivers (TEN) and Tom Brady (JAX) are good fantasy QBs with good matchups, so start ‘em..Matt Schaub has a very nice matchup against a Dolphins defense that is 23rd in the league against the pass…In a pinch? Alex Smith has the Lions this week. Detroit has given up an average of 268 yards and 2.1 TD through the air this season…David Garrard has a pretty good matchup with a Patriots defense that has really struggled to stop the pass of late.
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Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009 fantasy football week 16, 2009 NFL Week 16, Fantasy Football, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football week 16, fantasy football week 16 busts, fantasy football week 16 sleepers, fantasy football week 16 start sit, Headlines, Love 'Em & Leave 'Em
Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 16
Posted by John Paulsen (12/22/2009 @ 3:00 pm)
The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.
Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…
#1 Cardinals: 24 PA (0) + 2 SK + 2 INT + 1 FR = 5 fantasy points
#2 Seahawks: 24 PA (0) + 1 INT = 1 fp
#3 Texans: 13 PA (4) + 3 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR = 9 fp
The Cardinals were a big disappointment given their matchup with the Lions and the Seahawks were a no-show against the Bucs at home. At least Houston had a nice day.
On the season, my top pick is averaging 9.3 fantasy points per game, my #2 pick is averaging 9.5 fp and my #3 pick is averaging 6.9. On the whole, DTBWW is averaging 8.6 fp, which equates to DT3 numbers. Not bad.
Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues. (Note: If you already have the Cards, hold onto them this week — they have a great matchup against the Rams.)
Pick #1: San Francisco 49ers (vs. DET)
The 49ers are averaging 13.3 fp at home this season, and 15.3 over the last three (versus CHI, JAX and ARI). They should make mincemeat of the Lions.
Pick #2: Indianapolis Colts (vs. NYJ)
The Colts have averaged 7.8 points per game over the last four weeks and with turnover-happy Mark Sanchez coming to town, they should have a nice day.
Pick #3: Dallas Cowboys (vs. WAS)
Dallas is playing pretty good defense of late. They have gone for 8+ in six of their last nine games, and the Redskins are a pretty nice matchup.
Bonus pick: Falcons (vs. Bills)
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Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 16
Posted by John Paulsen (12/22/2009 @ 2:00 pm)

Be sure to check out Week 15’s Fantasy Fallout and our Waiver Wire Watch for Week 16. Still have questions? Fire away, but be sure to tell me about your league’s roster requirements and whether or not you’re in a PPR league.
Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009 fantasy football week 16, 2009 NFL Draft, 2009 NFL Week 16, Fantasy Football, fantasy football advice, Fantasy Football Q&A, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football week 16, fantasy Q&A, Headlines
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