It’s draft day, 2009, and you’ve just arrived at your buddy Phil’s house for your league’s fantasy draft. Fat ass Tank is already there.

Tank: Where’s your guy?

You: Should be here any minute.

Tank: He’s solid?

You: Yeah, I guess. He’s my long-lost uncle. I met him at our family reunion last month. He said if I knew of any fantasy leagues to let him know.

Phil: I can’t believe Ken’s wife forbade him to play the day before the draft. She forbade him.

Tank: Ridiculous.

There’s a knock on the door.

Tank: That’s your guy?

Phil answers the door. It’s your Uncle Nostradamus.

Nostradamus: What up, playas?

Tank: Nice beard.

Phil: Thanks for filling in last minute.

Nostradamus: No worries. Where is everyone?

Tank: We’ve got them on speakerphone.

Nostradamus: Sweet. Let’s do this. What’s my pick?

Phil: Well, Ken – the man with no testicles — had the #1 overall pick, so you get to go first. You know how to play?

Nostradamus: Is this a PPR league?

Phil: Yep. 18 rounds. You’re up.

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It’s championship week in most fantasy football leagues, so it’s not a good time to get cute. There’s a saying — dance with the guy that brought you. In other words, don’t bench a stud unless you have to.

On the subject of the Colts…

At this point, only Indianapolis appears to be ready to rest its players, so I’d expect Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark and Pierre Garcon to play a half of football. Moreover, the Jets are a pretty bad matchup, so it’s (relatively) safe to bench those Colts. It’s unfortunate that fantasy owners are forced to bench these players in such a crucial week, but this is a great argument for a fantasy league to end its playoffs in Week 15.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

Philip Rivers (TEN) and Tom Brady (JAX) are good fantasy QBs with good matchups, so start ‘em..Matt Schaub has a very nice matchup against a Dolphins defense that is 23rd in the league against the pass…In a pinch? Alex Smith has the Lions this week. Detroit has given up an average of 268 yards and 2.1 TD through the air this season…David Garrard has a pretty good matchup with a Patriots defense that has really struggled to stop the pass of late.

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The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

#1 Cardinals: 24 PA (0) + 2 SK + 2 INT + 1 FR = 5 fantasy points
#2 Seahawks: 24 PA (0) + 1 INT = 1 fp
#3 Texans: 13 PA (4) + 3 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR = 9 fp

The Cardinals were a big disappointment given their matchup with the Lions and the Seahawks were a no-show against the Bucs at home. At least Houston had a nice day.

On the season, my top pick is averaging 9.3 fantasy points per game, my #2 pick is averaging 9.5 fp and my #3 pick is averaging 6.9. On the whole, DTBWW is averaging 8.6 fp, which equates to DT3 numbers. Not bad.

Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues. (Note: If you already have the Cards, hold onto them this week — they have a great matchup against the Rams.)

Pick #1: San Francisco 49ers (vs. DET)
The 49ers are averaging 13.3 fp at home this season, and 15.3 over the last three (versus CHI, JAX and ARI). They should make mincemeat of the Lions.

Pick #2: Indianapolis Colts (vs. NYJ)
The Colts have averaged 7.8 points per game over the last four weeks and with turnover-happy Mark Sanchez coming to town, they should have a nice day.

Pick #3: Dallas Cowboys (vs. WAS)
Dallas is playing pretty good defense of late. They have gone for 8+ in six of their last nine games, and the Redskins are a pretty nice matchup.

Bonus pick: Falcons (vs. Bills)

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Be sure to check out Week 15’s Fantasy Fallout and our Waiver Wire Watch for Week 16. Still have questions? Fire away, but be sure to tell me about your league’s roster requirements and whether or not you’re in a PPR league.

Week 16 is here, so it’s do or die time for most fantasy owners. I wouldn’t imagine that there are too many championship-caliber teams out there scouring on the waiver wire for guys to start in the title game, so I’ll make this WWW relatively brief. Here are a few guys that could help fantasy owners that are in a pinch at a particular position. Remember, to be eligible for the WWW, a player needs to be owned in no more than 50% of ESPN leagues.

* Alex Smith (37.2) didn’t have a very good game against the Eagles, but with Lions coming to town, he is very much startable in Week 16.

* Vince Young (27.1) has thrown nine TD in the last six games and is also making plays with his feet. The Chargers are just a so-so matchup, but the Titans will have to throw to keep up.

* Jason Campbell (30.6) doesn’t have the greatest matchup in the world (DAL), but he has played pretty well of late and is usable in a pinch.

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