Fantasy Fallout, Week 11: QBs
Posted by John Paulsen (11/23/2009 @ 8:00 am)

- Ben Roethlisberger (398 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) had a big day before leaving in overtime with a head injury.
- Joe Flacco (256 yards, INT) threw for good yardage against the Colts, but failed to throw a TD.
- Tony Romo (158 yards, TD, INT) and the Dallas offense weren’t sharp for much of the day, but a late TD pass to Patrick Crayton gave the Cowboys the win.
- Matthew Stafford (422 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT) had a huge game against the Browns. Brady Quinn (304 yards, 4 TD) posted a nice fantasy line as well. Of the two, Stafford is the better fantasy QB to own, though keep an eye on his left shoulder injury.
- Alex Smith (227 yards, 3 TD, INT) was really quiet in the first half, but bounced back with a big second half.
- Brett Favre (213 yards, 4 TD) took advantage of a nice matchup and was able to take the fourth quarter off.
- Kurt Warner (203 yards, 2 TD) left the game at the end of the second quarter with a “minor” concussion. Keep an eye on this.
- The Chargers’ running game was rolling, so Philip Rivers (145 yards, TD) didn’t have to do a whole lot.
Fantasy Fallout, Week 11: RBs
Posted by John Paulsen (11/23/2009 @ 7:40 am)
- Joseph Addai (19 carries, 74 yards, TD) continues to dominate the touches out of the Indy backfield. He looks like an every week start at this point.
- Ladell Betts (4 carries, 5 yards) left the game early with a knee injury and was replaced by Rock Cartwright (20 touches, 140 yards), who suddenly looks like a good pickup.
- Kevin Smith (12 carries, 45 yards) didn’t get a whole lot of work in the running game, but he went for 4-104-1 in the passing game.
- Ryan Grant (21 carries, 129 yards, TD) has been very solid over the last three weeks.
- Marshawn Lynch’s disappointing season continues. He left the game with a shoulder injury after rushing for 18 yards on eight carries. Look for Fred Jackson’s (13 touches, 55 yards) stock to rise with Lynch out.
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Fantasy Fallout, Week 11: WRs
Posted by John Paulsen (11/23/2009 @ 7:20 am)
- The Colts are usually stout against the pass, but Derrick Mason (9-142) took advantage of a couple of injuries en route to a big day.
- Pierre Garcon (6-108) had a big day for the Colts, but where was Austin Collie (1-15)?
- Mohamed Massaquoi (5-115-1) had his first good game in four weeks.
- Michael Crabtree (4-77-1) had a couple of nice catches against a pretty good Packer secondary.
- Calvin Johnson (7-161-1) destroyed the Browns’ secondary.
- Greg Jennings (5-126-1) had a nice game that included a terrific 64-yard catch and run.
- Welcome to the 2009 NFL season, Terrell Owens (9-197-1).
- Surprisingly, Mike Sims-Walker (8-91-1) had a very nice day against a pretty stingy Bills pass defense.
- With Dwayne Bowe out, Chris Chambers (4-119) was once again the main man in the Kansas City passing game.
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Fantasy Fallout, Week 11: TEs
Posted by John Paulsen (11/23/2009 @ 7:00 am)
- Dallas Clark (1-3-1) was oddly quiet on Sunday, while Tom Santi (6-80) had a great game.
- Brandon Pettigrew (6-72-1) had his second great game in two weeks. He looks like a decent start down the stretch.
- Heath Miller had a pretty quiet stretch of three games, but exploded for 7-95-1 against the Chiefs.
- Visanthe Shiancoe (8-78-1) caught a TD on a nice 8-yard slant in the second quarter.
- Kevin Boss (5-76-2) is making a late push. He has four TD in his last three games.
- After a 5-45 performance in Week 10, David Thomas (4-66-1) had another nice day. He’s stealing targets from Jeremy Shockey (2-17).
- It might be a good sign for Zach Miller (5-65-1) that Bruce Gradkowski is under center instead of JaMarcus Russell.
Check back in a bit for the WR, RB and QB positions.
Q&A Question of the Week: Week 11
Posted by John Paulsen (11/22/2009 @ 11:49 am)
Every week, I pick one question from our Fantasy Football Q&A and post it on Sunday morning. This week’s question comes from Pradeep, who is wondering how he should replace Michael Turner.
“I need to replace Turner. I have J.Stewart on my roster…so he is the current pick. I also have Bradshaw and Sammy Morris on bench but they don’t look attractive to me. I can pick up Beanie Wells, Snelling, Forsett, or Betts from the waiver. What are my options both for next week and to build a little more depth into the RB position going forward?”
My answer: I’d dump Morris for Snelling and start him while Turner is out.
The simplest thing for Turner owners to do is to run Snelling out there until Turner gets back. That way, you’re pretty much guaranteed the starter in ATL for the rest of the season. The value of some of these other RBs depends largely on how long the starters for their respective teams are going to be sidelined. Sammy Morris is on his way back, but Maroney has been decent as the Pats’ starter, so NE may elect to go with a RBBC to ease Morris back in. Julius Jones will miss this week, but SEA is optimistic that he’ll be back soon. Still, Forsett has value in PPR leagues because he’s going to get extra snaps now that Edgerrin James out (even if Jones is healthy). The Falcons are optimistic about Michael Turner’s injury, but high ankle sprains are tricky, so no one really knows how long he’ll be out. Clinton Portis is dealing with a concussion and is seeing specialists about it. It wouldn’t be surprising if they shut him down, since the Redskins are pretty much out of the playoff hunt. Cedric Benson said that he’d play this week, but it looks like he’s going to be out, so Bernard Scott looks like a great one-week start. Beanie Wells continues to earn more work in the ARI backfield and with a relatively easy schedule coming up, it wouldn’t be surprising if he gets a ton of carries as the Cards try to protect the lead.
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Fantasy Football Quick-Hitters: Benson, Westy, Orton, DeAngelo, Ronnie and Norwood
Posted by John Paulsen (11/19/2009 @ 1:50 pm)
Cedric Benson did not practice on Thursday. Rotoworld reports that Bengals players who don’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday usually do not play on Sunday, but that an exception might be made for Benson, who is the league’s 6th-leading rusher. Cincy’s game against Oakland is at 4:15 PM, so fantasy owners with Bernard Scott can simply wait it out and see if Benson is active on Sunday. Those without Scott have a tough decision to make.
Brian Westbrook should make a full recovery. This is great news for Westy, but his 2009 is still in doubt. The doctors are recommending he be re-evaluated in 2-3 weeks, which makes his return in Week 13 at the earliest. The Eagles were told to take a conservative approach, so even if he’s healthy enough to play, I’d expect the team to shut him down if they fall out of the playoff hunt. Fantasy owners should hold onto him in the event that he comes back for the fantasy playoffs, but if there is a good option on the waiver wire, it might be time to cut bait.
Jerious Norwood returns to limited practice. It looks like Michael Turner will be out this week, but he’s optimistic that he’ll be back soon. It’s not inconceivable that Norwood would get some work with Jason Snelling in a RBBC against the Giants, though he’s been out a while with a hip injury.
Kyle Orton has torn ligaments in his left ankle. Brandon Marshall owners should keep an eye on this. If Orton isn’t able to play through this injury, it’s a big blow to Marshall. Orton isn’t great, but he’s a lot better than Chris Simms right now.
Ronnie Brown reportedly has Lisfranc injury. This generally requires surgery and recovery takes a while. If this is indeed the type of injury he has, he will enter the 2010 season as a question mark.
DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are both expected to play tonight. Williams sat out practice on Wednesday just to rest, nothing more. He’s a good RB1 play and Stewart is a solid RB2/flex play in most formats.
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The fantasy impact of Ronnie Brown’s season-ending injury
Posted by John Paulsen (11/18/2009 @ 7:07 pm)
Rotoworld shares the bad news that the Dolphins placed Ronnie Brown on IR, ending his season…
The extent of Brown’s foot injury still hasn’t been revealed, but the Dolphins wouldn’t have ended his season so early if it wasn’t significant. A Lisfranc fracture requiring surgery could jeopardize his availability for 2010 training camp. In standard leagues, Brown has been the No. 8 overall fantasy RB with eight all-purpose touchdowns, 746 total yards, and a rock-solid 4.4 YPC in nine starts. With no CBA deal on the horizon, Brown’s 2010 option will likely kick in, keeping him in Miami. He’s due $5 million in salary next season.
Obviously, this is a big blow to the Dolphins who already have RB Patrick Cobbs on IR. However, they do have a good backup in Ricky Williams who is more than capable of taking over.
From a fantasy point of view, if Williams is somehow available on your waiver wire, pick him up NOW. His matchups in the fantasy playoffs are all decent and the Miami running game is one of the best in the league. There are a few things to keep in mind: 1) He’s 32 years-old and hasn’t had a 25+ carry game since 2005, 2) he was basically out of football for two years so he doesn’t have the normal mileage of a 32 year-old RB, and 3) he has looked damn good this year, averaging a career-high 5.3 ypc.
The Dolphins plan to use Williams as their workhorse back. Lex Hilliard is listed next on the Miami depth chart, so he might be a guy to stash if you have room on your roster. Hilliard is a power back that hasn’t yet carried the ball in his two year career. However, he amassed 3,428 yards and 45 TD in three seasons at Montana. He averaged 107 yards and 1.2 TD in 23 games over his last two years in college. Given his age, Williams is susceptible to injury, and if he were to go down, Hilliard would likely be the lead back in a potent rushing attack.
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Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009 fantasy football week 11, fantasy football week 11, Lex Hilliard, Lex Hilliard fantasy, Ricky Williams, Ricky Williams fantasy, Ronnie Brown, Ronnie Brown fantasy impact, Ronnie Brown injury
Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 11
Posted by John Paulsen (11/18/2009 @ 6:00 pm)
Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.


Matt Schaub is coming off his bye and has a tasty matchup with a Tennessee defense that has given up an average of 270 yards and 2.6 pass TD per game…Eli Manning is also coming off his bye and has a date with an Atlanta defense that is 28th against the pass…The KC DT has been a little better versus QBs of late, but Ben Roethlisberger should still have a nice game. On the season, the Chiefs have given up an average of 234 yards and 1.6 pass TD per game…It’s tough to run on the Vikings, so look for Matt Hasselbeck to pass early and often to try to take advantage of Minnesota’s 23rd-ranked pass defense…The Giants have struggled against the pass of late, so Matt Ryan will have an opportunity to break out of his recent funk…Desperate? Miami has really struggled against the pass lately, so (gulp) Jake Delhomme should be able to post some good fantasy numbers.
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Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009 fantasy football week 11, 2009 NFL Week 11, Fantasy Football, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football week 11, fantasy football week 11 busts, fantasy football week 11 sleepers, Headlines, Love 'Em & Leave 'Em
Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 11
Posted by John Paulsen (11/18/2009 @ 1:52 pm)
The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.
Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…
#1 Dolphins: 23 PA (0) + 3 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR = 5 fantasy points
#2 Titans: 17 PA (2) + 2 SK + 2 INT + 2 RET TD = 18 fp
#3 Cardinals: 20 PA (0) + 4 SK + 2 INT = 6 fp
The Dolphins were a little disappointing considering their opponent (TB), but they put up a serviceable point total. The Titans were excellent — TEN is averaging 14.0 fp over the last three weeks (in three very good matchups). Arizona was mediocre, but at least they didn’t put up a goose egg like my bonus pick (ATL).
On the season, my #1 pick is averaging 10.1 fantasy points, my #2 pick is averaging 10.7 fp and my #3 pick is averaging 6.8 fp. As a whole, DTBWW is averaging 9.2 fp, which are DT3 numbers. Not bad.
Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
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Fantasy Football Quick-Hitters: Bowe, Julius, Hightower, Benson and Ronnie
Posted by John Paulsen (11/17/2009 @ 1:54 pm)
Dwayne Bowe suspended for four games. Apparently, he violated the league’s substance abuse policy. Believe it or not, this makes Chris Chambers a viable fantasy option as the Chiefs don’t have much else going for them at WR. Lance Long may see more targets as well.
HC Mora admits that Julius Jones is “unlikely” to play in Week 11. This isn’t surprising considering that Jones was hospitalized on Sunday. Justin Forsett will get the start in a bad matchup with the Vikings. But from Week 12 on, Seattle’s schedule is pretty nice, so Forsett could potentially be a nice second-half pickup if Jones misses extended time. I wonder if the Seahawks are regretting letting Edgerrin James go.
Tim Hightower is still the Cardinals’ starter. This is going to be an interesting situation to watch down the stretch. The Cardinals have series of great rushing matchups, so will Hightower be as involved as Arizona tries to milk the clock? He seems to shine when Arizona is in catch up mode.
Cedric Benson may be a game-time decision against Oakland. The Raiders are terrible against the run, so whoever starts (Benson or Bernard Scott) should be a great start in Week 11. The team has already stated that the Larry Johnson signing has nothing to do with Benson’s injury, but the timing makes this hard to believe.
Ricky Williams will be the Dolphins’ every-down back with Ronnie Brown out. Brown apparently has two injuries — one to his ankle and one to his foot — and beat writer Omar Kelly says there’s a possibility that Brown will see a specialist. Williams’s value was already pretty high, but now it’s through the roof. Start him with confidence.
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Posted in: Fantasy Football, News, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football week 11, Cedric Benson injury, Dwayne Bowe, Dwayne Bowe suspension, Fantasy Football, fantasy football week 11, Julius Jones injury, Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown injury, Tim Hightower
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