Last season, he took over a 2-6 team in Week 10, and averaged 234 passing yards, 1.5 pass TD and 0.3 rush TD over the last eight games of the season. Subtracting interceptions (1.0 per game), this works out to about 19.1 fantasy points per game. Had Hill averaged these numbers over the course of an entire season, he would have finished as last year’s QB6, ahead of Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. Moreover, he led the 49ers to a 5-3 record down the stretch, so he has proven that he can win games.

Amongst all NFL QBs, Hill also projects to face the 8th-easiest schedule. Obviously, projections are just projections, but all else being equal, I’d rather have a guy with a schedule that looks favorable. The 49ers are also likely to be trailing for much of the season, which will make it difficult for the team to follow through with its planned 60/40 run/pass split.

Hill doesn’t have a lot of weapons in the passing game, but the situation is pretty much unchanged from last season, so that isn’t a huge concern. If Vernon Davis ever taps into his significant potential and/or Michael Crabtree signs and learns the offense, it could be make Hill’s job a lot easier.

Hill is an undrafted 29-year-old journeyman, so he isn’t going to set the world on fire. I wouldn’t expect Top 10 numbers, though his performance last season would indicate that he’s capable of posting that kind of production. He’s one of those QBs who plays for a pretty bad team that should be trailing much of the time. If he can stay healthy, this could result in fantasy gold.

Grab him as a fantasy backup, especially if you have a QB that has a bye during one of Hill’s favorable matchups (McNabb, Warner, Ryan, Rivers, Brees, Rodgers and Cutler). He’s also a great guy to look for as part of a QBBC, specifically when used with Matt Cassel, David Garrard and Eli Manning. Throughout the preseason, he has been readily available in the 12th round of most fantasy drafts, and has actually gone undrafted in many leagues.

Willie Parker will be the Steelers’ feature back.
HC Mike Tomlin said of Parker that he is “our runner,” the implication being that he’s not going to be splitting carries with the other RBs in Pittsburgh. If this plays out in Week 1, it’s an obvious boost to Parker’s stock.

Chaz Schilens could return as early as Week 2.
He was one of my favorite sleepers, and now he’s back on the radar. Pick him up if you have a spot.

Greg Camarillo the starter in MIA?
This position battle has been fluid all preseason with Camarillo, Brian Hartline and Davone Bess all holding the lead at times. If Camarillo is indeed the starter, he’s worth a spot in PPR leagues.

Jay Cutler has “most faith” in TE Greg Olsen.
Olsen looks primed for a breakout season. Cutler loves to throw to his TE, and there aren’t too many options in the Chicago passing game.

Over the course of his tumultuous four-year career, Chris Henry has caught a TD every 5.6 passes. That’s a better ratio than Randy Moss (6.2), Terrell Owens (6.8) and Jerry Rice (7.3), in his 49er days. There has never been any doubt that the lanky 6’4″ Henry had all the tools to be a star, but he just couldn’t stay out of trouble.

According to ESPN, it was the NFL’s disciplinary policy that helped Henry see the light. He should know — he has been suspended for 14 games over the last three seasons.

“Yeah, it helped me,” Henry said, according to USA Today. “It helped me focus up, and it made me realize that if I continually wanted to play, I had to do right and be a professional.”

Since the Bengals drafted him in 2005 out of West Virginia, he’s faced charges of marijuana possession, carrying a concealed weapon, drunken driving, providing alcohol to minors and assault.

Through four preseason games, Henry has 14 catches for 224 yards and four TD. Even though he’s playing limited snaps, if he keeps that pace up, he’s on his way to a 56-catch, 896-yard, 16-TD season. Obviously, it’s tough to expect him to catch that many touchdowns, but double digits are certainly attainable given his TD-to-catch ratio. The receptions and yards are doable, and a 56-896-10 season would result in Top 20 fantasy numbers.

There are a few things standing in Henry’s way: 1) Chad Ochocinco, who is hell bent on having a bounce-back year, 2) Laveranues Coles, who still has enough ability to earn snaps by catching all the underneath stuff, and 3) Henry’s own demons, who may resurface at any time.

Still, with the departure of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and the (possible) decline of Ochocinco, the Bengals’ WR pecking order is as fluid now as it’s ever been, and if the immensely talented Henry has truly turned over a new leaf, he has the chance to break out in a big way.

From a fantasy perspective, it’s hard not to like this guy in the late-middle rounds. In my drafts, it seems like he’s the best WR on the board as early as the 8th or 9th in some cases, but owners can usually wait a bit longer to pull the trigger.

But don’t wait too long.

Usually, the term “late bloomer” is used to describe someone that raises his level of play later than usual in his career, but in this case I’m referring to guys that have become fantasy relevant late in preseason. I wasn’t thinking about these players when I put together our fantasy football preview or even when I suggested several late round WR sleepers. These guys emerged as viable fantasy players as injuries took their toll, position battles were won and depth charts were adjusted.

Maybe it’s too late to draft these players, but they’re worth considering when scouring the waiver wire for help.

In no particular order…

1. Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins
I really like Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo in PPR leagues, but it appears that Hartline has passed both on the Miami depth chart. This is a fuzzy, fluid battle. Hartline is a deep threat as evidenced by his 56-yard grab against the Bucs last week. Reports this week have Hartline and Camarillo rotating at flanker with the first team. Given his rise, I like the rookie Hartline here, but since he plays with a weak-armed QB on a run-oriented team, he’s only worth a flier in the late rounds. 9/7 Update: Now it appears that Greg Camarillo is the starter opposite Ginn in MIA. This situation continues to be very fluid.

2. Justin Gage, WR, Titans
3. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans
Nate Washington’s hamstring injury opened the door for both these players to get off to a good start early in the season. Britt is the high upside rookie, while Gage is the under-the-radar vet. Gage appears to be the safer option at this point, because he should still be the starter when Washington returns and has always been pretty productive when healthy. In the last preseason game, he posted 6-57-1 and looks to be Kerry Collins’ go-to guy. Meanwhile, Britt has shown flashes of excellence (like his 89-yard effort in the previous game), but he still looks overwhelmed at times. If you need help early on, Gage is your man, but Britt isn’t a bad guy to stash on your bench.

4. Shaun Hill, QB, 49ers
Now that it’s finally clear that he’ll be the 49ers’ starting QB, it’s safe to draft Hill in the later rounds. He was quite productive fantasy-wise in 2008, posting 227 yards and 1.4 pass TD over the last nine games. He also rushed for two TD. He faces an easy schedule and should have more weapons in the passing game once Michael Crabtree signs and if Vernon Davis ever reaches his potential. Hill is a sneaky good pick in the 11th or 12th round as a backup (or as part of a QBBC).

5. Chansi Stuckey, WR, Jets
As a rookie, Stuckey burst on the scene in 2008, posting 12-122-3 in his first three games, then proceeded to put up just 20-237-0 over the next 11 games. With Laveranues Coles gone, the Jets’ WR2 spot is open, and Stuckey appears to be the one to fill that role, at least for now. David Clowney is also a factor, but he’s been plagued by drops and is now looking like he’ll come in when the team needs a deep threat. Stuckey has good hands and agility, so he has the makings of a pretty good WR.

6. Jason Avant, WR, Eagles
While rookie Jeremy Maclin has struggled with fumbles in the return game, Avant has emerged as the WR most likely step in for Kevin Curtis as he battles a knee injury. Avant went for 5-92 against the Jaguars last week and with the way that Donovan McNabb likes to spread the ball around, he could be an effective WR in PPR leagues as long as he’s getting consistent playing time.

7. Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers
He’s supposedly going to split time with Donald Lee, but Finley is far more explosive in the passing game and the Packers will use him there. He has been tearing it up at camp, posting 7-74-2 in the last two preseason games. He’s flying under the radar, but is a nice upside guy to draft in the final rounds as a TE2.

8. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants
For a while, it looked like the rookie was going to struggle to have much of an impact this season, but after a 144-yard, two-TD effort in the Giants’ third preseason game, Nicks seems primed to see a lot of playing time for a team in desperate need of someone to step it up at WR. This, coupled with Domenik Hixon’s drop-turned-INT bodes well for Nicks.

9. Troy Williamson, WR, Jaguars
Williamson has failed fantasy owners over the years, but the Jags are hurting at WR and he has had a great preseason. He’s a significant deep threat, so if he can continue to hold onto the ball, there’s a very good chance that he’ll be the Jags’ Week 1 starter opposite Torry Holt (who is struggling to gain separation). Right now, he leads the league in preseason receiving yards, and that’s a good sign.

10. Michael Bush, RB, Raiders
Bush is pushing Justin Fargas, but it’s not clear how his role would relate to Darren McFadden, who is the Raiders’ true RB1. Oakland will likely use McFadden like Reggie Bush, which means that Michael Bush could play the Deuce McAllister/Pierre Thomas role and get most of the work between the tackles. The only problem is that the Raiders’ offense is not nearly as productive as the Saints’, so Bush’s goal line opportunities will be limited. Still, if he’s the top guy behind McFadden, and McFadden goes down…well, you can do the math.

I’m playing in nine or ten leagues this year, and one thing I’m noticing as I get deeper and deeper into my drafts is that Marshawn Lynch is consistently undervalued this preseason.

Here’s what I wrote as part of our fantasy preview:

Marshawn Lynch, Bills (4.08)
Lynch’s ADP is depressed because he’s going to miss the first three games due to suspension. Last year, we saw two players – Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall – tear it up after returning from suspension, and they were both big values on draft day. If you can combine Lynch in the late 3rd or early 4th and his backup, Fred Jackson, in the 8th or 9th, you’re essentially getting a borderline first round RB, which will pay dividends throughout the season. Plus, the Terrell Owens acquisition should take the pressure off the running game and open things up a little for Lynch and Jackson, even though the loss of Jason Peters (one of the league’s best left tackles) may offset this advantage.

Then I had to choose amongst Lynch, Ryan Grant and Reggie Bush in Round 4 of my Industry Insiders Draft…

Of the three, Bush is the most productive on a per game basis in PPR leagues, but he has missed 10 games over the past two seasons and just isn’t as dependable as the other two guys. I ran the numbers for Grant and Lynch, and Grant has averaged 14.1 ppg since he became the starter in Green Bay while Lynch has averaged 15.1 ppg in his two seasons in the league. Lynch is more involved in the Buffalo passing game, so that helps his overall numbers.

Then there’s the whole three-game suspension thingy, which is the reason that Lynch is available in the fourth round in the first place. Otherwise, he’d likely be a late first round or early second round pick. Last year, we saw two players — Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall — see their stock fall in the preseason due to suspension and proceed to light it up once they returned. Marshall finished as WR4 after missing the first game and Smith finished as WR10 after missing the first two.

I took a closer look at the schedules of Grant and Lynch and found that Lynch had a distinct advantage over the last 13 games. In fact, Lynch projects to face the second easiest schedule of any running back over that span. This, combined with Grant’s struggles last season and Lynch’s overall superior productivity, convinced me to draft the Buffalo RB at 4.05. Sure, I’ll have to burn a middle round pick on Lynch’s backup (Fred Jackson), but I think it’s worth it to lock up Lynch after his suspension is over.

I also won Lynch in a slow auction league, where he went for a very reasonable price of $30 when guys like Grant, Bush and Darren McFadden all went for $49+. Bush and McFadden are injury concerns and Lynch has produced more consistently than Grant has (though I do like these other players).

Obviously, the three-game suspension is a little off putting to some owners, but they’re being shortsighted. Sure, he’s going to miss a quarter of the fantasy regular season and a fifth of the full fantasy season, but for the price of a 4th or 5th rounder, you can get a RB that will produce at a late-first/early-second round level. The first three weeks of the year might be a little precarious, but it’s before the byes start, so if owners have an option of a flex position or if they manage to draft Jackson, then they should be just fine.

There was some talk about Fred Jackson possibly stealing the job during the suspension, but Lynch took the majority of first team snaps throughout the preseason, so I don’t think there’s much to worry about on that front.

Once Lynch returns to face a very easy schedule, his owners will have a distinct advantage for the rest of the season and into the playoffs.

After news of the suspension broke, a fellow owner in my slow auction league nominated him for bidding. I won him for $21, which was 5% of my total payroll (or about two-thirds his pre-suspension value). Here’s what Joe Bryant (of Footballguys.com) had to say in a recent email:

Marshall will probably fall out of the top 100 picks in most drafts now. We would still take a chance on him around the 9th/10th round range in PPR leagues, because if this really goes completely sour, you can cut him for the WW flavor of the week, but if he straightens out, he’ll be the rare top 20 WR you can get out of the top 100.

But this hasn’t been the case, at least not yet. According to Antsports, in 12-team redraft leagues from 8/29-8/31, his ADP dropped from the late third into the early fifth. I had a keeper league that drafted this Sunday, and Marshall went in the middle of the sixth. (I realize that in a keeper league, his value will be somewhat higher because of his long-term value in the league.)

Other owners are going to be scared off by Marshall’s ridiculously bad offseason. But the bottom line is that he’s in a contract year, and if he wants to score a big payday, he’s going to need to show up and act like a professional. At least this what I hope his agent is telling him on a daily basis during his suspension.

There are some indications that the Broncos are willing to work with Marshall this year. The suspension itself was only for the preseason, and if he behaves, he could very well be on the field for the team’s opener. This is a clear sign that the Broncos value Marshall and what he can do for the team. They are not yet at the point where he’s too much of a headache to deal with. Moreover, Josh McDaniels spoke about the situation at the most recent preseason game and he seemed optimistic about the WR’s short-term future.

The driving force behind Marshall’s future is Marshall himself. If he wants a fat contract, he needs to shut his mouth and play out his current deal. If he performs up to his usual standard, some team will forget about all of this and will give him the kind of contract he’s looking for. From a fantasy point of view, this makes Marshall a risk, but a worthwhile risk in the middle rounds. If he realizes his situation, swallows his pride, and acts like a professional, he can get the kind of money he wants. This is why I’m optimistic about Brandon Marshall in 2009.

Given what we know right now, his ADP of 5.05 sounds about right. I’d take him after Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson, but before Santonio Holmes, Antonio Bryant and Santana Moss.

Of course, he could completely flake out and get suspended for the entire season, a la Keyshawn Johnson.

Don’t you love fantasy football?

Snake drafts are simple, easy to understand and organized.

Auctions are not.

They are haphazard and chaotic, and that’s part of what makes them so much fun.

Want the consensus top fantasy player in the league? He’s yours…if you’re willing to pay. You’re not beholden to a certain draft slot or to the whim of the guy picking in front of you. It’s your team and the decisions you make will completely shape your roster, for good or for bad.

Auctions come in all shapes and sizes, but for the past couple of seasons I’ve played in one where each team has a $400 salary cap and a roster of 20-22 players. It’s a slow online auction. Every day, each owner is responsible for nominating one player along with an opening bid, which can’t be seen by the other owners in the league. Bidding is open for 24 hours, unless the high bidder changes, in which case the clock is reset. At any particular time there might be 20 or 30 players up for bidding, but the slow format gives owners plenty of time to consider their options.

I generally budget 85-90% of my total cap for my starters. This way, I have already accounted for some extra funds to acquire some cheap backups in the later part of the auction. This might seem like a lot to spend on your starters, but these are the guys that are playing week in and week out, so it’s smart to put the vast majority of your resources to that end.

When approaching an auction there are two prevailing strategies to consider when bidding on players:

SMASH AND DASH

In most auctions, owners are amped up and ready to spend. Usually, big-name players are nominated first, so there is a sense of urgency when there are 12 or 15 of the game’s top 20 or 30 players on the board. The bids come fast and furious and prices are usually inflated. How do you know if they’re inflated? There are a number of auction spreadsheets out there, but I like to use the Value Based Drafting spreadsheet that Footballguys.com distributes.

A membership to the site is worth it, but if you don’t want to join, don’t worry, the first few updates are free. You can then customize the Excel spreadsheet to your league’s specifications and modify the player projections as you see fit. The spreadsheet will generate a cheatsheet that will have a list of all the players by position and by price. This will be your guide during the auction.

The “smash and dash” approach is to hit the auction hard in the first few days, acquiring 2-4 top players – 1st or 2nd rounders in a traditional draft format – spending anywhere from 50-80% of your total budget. While you need to trust your spreadsheet, don’t be afraid to pay a little more than MSRP to get a guy you want.

You would then look to round out your roster with cheaper players, hoping that your studs will stay healthy and carry you to the playoffs. Depending on how far you pushed your payroll, this may be easier said than done. Owners who saved their money for the middle of the auction are going to be able to outbid you at will, so you have to hope that those owners aren’t interested in the cheaper players that you want. If you’re patient, you can usually find good deals in the later stages of the draft.

This is a high risk, high reward strategy.

SIT AND WAIT

Another approach is to sit on the sidelines while the other owners trip over themselves overbidding on every player on the board. At some point, they’ll all run out of money having overspent on their “studs” and won’t have any money left to fill out the rest of their roster with anything but scrubs.

This is the point in the auction – usually when 50% of the total league payroll has been allocated – that the proverbial worm turns. This is when you step in with your wad of cash and pounce on value when it reveals itself. It’s not uncommon for good players (3rd-5th rounders) to go for 50% or less of their true value. The strategy here is to build a balanced squad made up of solid mid-round talent. This type of team will be better able to absorb an injury or two .

There are two drawbacks to this strategy: 1) fantasy champions usually have at least one or two studs and 2) it can be difficult to sit idly by at start of the auction as a series of very talented players come and go.

Both strategies, if followed to the letter, have significant drawbacks. This is why I advocate something of a hybrid approach, which I dubbed…

THE HYBRID APPROACH

This strategy requires the owner to play a little defense in addition to offense. The first thing I do is nominate a player that I don’t really want. I’ve never been a big fan of Randy Moss or Terrell Owens (I just don’t trust them to stay healthy or sane) so I love to throw out their names early on. This will usually cause a feeding frenzy and eat up some of the resources of the other owners in the league. I’ll usually cap my bid at 50-60% of the player’s value (according to my spreadsheet), so that no one gets a screaming deal (i.e. I will take Moss if it’s at a 50% discount).

Then, as the big-name players are nominated, I’ll bid them up to different levels depending on how strongly I feel about them…60-70% if I’m lukewarm…70-80% if I like them…80-85% if I really like them…90-100% if I love them.

Sometimes, I’ll end up with the high bid on 2-3 big name players early on. Don’t be afraid to spend a good chunk of your payroll on discounted studs. If you can get three first round or early second round players for 60-70% of your total payroll, you are in good shape. Just lay low for a while and let the owners sitting on the sideline play defense on the big-name players. Only enter the fray if there is a value player available that fits your budget.

If you don’t end up with any studs in the first third of the draft, don’t fret, there are bound to be several first and second round talents still available, along with plenty of players who are going in the middle rounds of snake drafts. Keep track of who has and who hasn’t been nominated and only bid with a sense of urgency if the last stud RB or WR becomes available. Chances are, you’ll be able to get him at a price that wasn’t available earlier in the auction.

CONCLUSION

As you can see, auction strategy is something of a nebulous topic. It depends largely on what kind of auction you’re in. If you’re surrounded by aggressive spenders, then it pays to bide your time. If you’re surrounded by bargain hunters, then it is wise to land a few studs early, provided you can get them at a discount. You should know what kind of auction you’re in by the time the first few players fall off the board. Keep a running total of what players are going for and divide that by their total value. If the number is greater than 1.1, you’re in an aggressive league (or at least there are a few aggressive owners). If it’s less than 0.9, you’re probably in a passive league, so look for some discounted studs early on. Just pay attention, spend wisely, and pounce when the time is right. This might be at the start, in the middle, or at the end. It all depends.

I’ve only participated in three or four auction drafts in my career, so I’m still learning. If you have any tips or suggestions for our readers, please feel free to share them below.