I know my official bracket looked rough there for a while, with a spotty performance in the first round and the loss of my overall winner (Kansas) in the second. But with Syracuse, Ohio State and Kansas State losing, along with West Virginia’s win over Kentucky and Duke’s tight win over Baylor, I ended up with two Final Four teams in a year when almost no one will have three or more. That means that if you followed my picks, you’re probably sitting somewhere near the top of your pool. (Anthony Stalter didn’t look at his bracket after Kansas lost and just discovered that he’s in fourth place out of 54 entries and has a shot at second place.)
Anyway, even though I’m a Duke fan, I picked the Mountaineers over the Blue Devils at the beginning of the tournament, and now I’m regretting it a little. But I don’t want to get ahead of myself. Let’s take a closer look at each game and try to predict what’s going to happen on Saturday night.
MICHIGAN ST. vs. BUTLER
By now everyone knows that Butler will be playing just a few miles away from campus. The pundits are suggesting that the Bulldogs will have a big homecourt advantage, but I’m not for sure. The Final Four crowd is largely made up of corporate types that are both neutral and non-vocal, so unless the Butler contingent can somehow get a hold of these tickets, I don’t think there will be much of an advantage. However, if Butler wins on Saturday, its fans could buy up all the tickets from the losing teams. This, coupled with a villain in the title game (Duke) could create more atmosphere. Still, it’s not like we’re talking about Indiana or Purdue — I just don’t know that the Butler fan base is that broad.
First Team: John Wall, Kentucky; Scottie Reynolds, Villanova; Evan Turner, Ohio State; Wes Johnson, Syracuse; and DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky
James Anderson of Oklahoma State was sixth in the balloting with 27 votes and was joined on the second team by Sherron Collins of Kansas, Greivis Vasquez of Maryland, Jon Scheyer of Duke and Da’Sean Butler of West Virginia.
The third team was Greg Monroe of Georgetown, Cole Aldrich of Kansas, Damion James of Texas, Luke Harangody of Notre Dame and Darington Hobson of New Mexico.
Talk about a pressure-packed game. Neither team led by more than seven points until the 1:36 mark when Lance Thomas followed up a Kyle Singler missed with a dunk and a foul to increase Duke’s lead from five to eight. The follow-up punctuated what was the difference in the game — Duke’s ability to hit the offensive glass. Thomas had eight of the Blue Devils’ 22 offensive rebounds. (Baylor had 16, so the disparity doesn’t seem so big, but five came in the final minute when the Bears were in full catch-up mode.)
Nolan Smith (29 points) and Jon Scheyer (20 points) carried Duke offensively on a night when Singler simply couldn’t buy a bucket. He went 0-10 from the field and turned the ball over four times. In fact, Scheyer scored all of his points from the three-point line (5-10) and the free throw line (5-5). Smith and Scheyer hit back-to-back threes down the stretch to give the Blue Devils a six-point lead with 2:37 to play. (I’m really looking forward to seeing what Smith can do as a full-time point guard next season.)
Duke shot 48% from 3PT, but just 11-38 (29%) from 2PT. This was a result of Baylor’s zone forcing Duke to take open yet uncomfortable shots from inside the arc. Duke was successful offensively when they hit a post player with a pass at the free throw line and that player (usually Mason Plumlee or Brian Zoubek) found the open three-point shooter.
LaceDarius Dunn led the Bears with 22 points, but had just six in the second half before a made three with 0:10 to play. This was something of a coming out party for Ekpe Udoh, who posted 18 points, 10 rebounds, six assists and five blocks. Baylor hasn’t played on national television all that much so Udoh made the most of the opportunity.
In West Virginia, Duke will face a very similar team at the Final Four. The Mountaineers also like to play at a slow pace and have a pretty good 1-3-1 zone that will limit Duke’s playbook. One thing that this Duke team has that the last few teams have lacked is depth on the front line. In Zoubek, Thomas, and the Plumlee brothers, Duke has plenty of beef up front to battle down low. It should be a great game.
Don’t bet against Tom Izzo in March. Even without his best player, Kalin Lucas, Izzo has directed his Spartans to their second-straight Final Four with a 70-69 win over Tennessee.
The game was nip-and-tuck the entire way with neither team leading by more than eight points. Raymar Morgan made a free throw with 1.8 seconds to play to give the Spartans the lead for good.
Personally, I’m a little bummed. I was hoping Tennessee and West Virginia would square off in the title game so we could see the matchup between Steven Pearl and Cam Thoroughman.
Butler upended K-State, 63-56, and will head home to Indianapolis for the Final Four next weekend.
Kansas State was out of sync early on, and couldn’t buy a bucket for long periods of the first half. Every analyst seems to think they were tired from Thursday night’s double-OT win over Xavier, but these are 19-, 20-, and 21-year old kids we’re talking about, so fatigue shouldn’t be that much of a factor, especially considering that K-State is a pretty deep team.
Butler controlled the game for most of the way, but there was a nearly five-minute stretch in the second half where the Bulldogs didn’t score a field goal, which allowed the Wildcats to claw back into the game. Butler turned the ball over 11 times in the second half (19 in the game), but didn’t have a single turnover in the final four and a half minutes after Kansas State regained the lead.
Butler made up for its sometimes sloppy offensive play by hitting almost 47% from three (7-15) and getting to the line 20 times (six more than K-State). They also played solid defense throughout the game, though K-State missed a lot of bunnies; Butler’s defense was outstanding on the final few possessions.
Brad Stevens (33) has to be one of the youngest coaches (if not the youngest) to make a Final Four, and he’ll get to do it in Butler’s hometown of Indianapolis. I’m not sure they’ll be much of a home court advantage as the Final Four crowd is usually heavy in non-partisan corporate types. The Bulldogs have a real shot at playing in the title game as both of their potential opponents — Michigan State and Tennessee — are very beatable.
This is the third time in five years (George Mason ’06, Memphis ’08) that a mid-major has made the Final Four. Prior to that, there was a stretch of seven years (Utah ’98) where only “power” conference teams made it to the national semifinals.
1. Americans hate monopolies, and love underdogs: Think of Duke as Microsoft, says workplace psychologist Paul Damiano, as quoted in Newsweek. Duke’s basketball prowess, like Microsoft’s software near-monopoly, makes people mad. Americans love underdogs that fight for victory with few resources. Conversely, we hate dominant businesses and sports teams — the New York Yankees are a prime example — on the assumption they buy the best players, or get cushy treatment from the regulators (“aka the referees”). Case in point: Many writers have complained that Duke got easy opponents to help it go far in the tournament, because Blue Devil hatred translates into good TV ratings.
Sure…only Duke hasn’t been to the Final Four in six years. They are still a top 10 basketball program, certainly, but they aren’t the dominant program they were in years past. If that were the case, why doesn’t everyone hate North Carolina or Michigan State? And I don’t like the comparison to the New York Yankees. Duke can’t go around and buy up all the best free agents. If anything, Coach K is at a disadvantage due to Duke’s stringent admission standards.
2. The “Cameron Crazies”: No school has more infamous fans than Duke’s Cameron Crazies, says John Gasaway in Basketball Prospectus. And many Duke haters believe the rowdy — some would say obnoxious — student fans who cram into Duke’s Cameron Indoor Stadium for home games and relentlessly taunt opposing players give their team an unfair advantage. Or, as a student at nearby arch-rival University of Carolina put it: “When I see those Dookie boneheads shoe-polishing their faces navy blue on television, squandering their parents’ money with their fratty elitist bad sportsmanship antics and Saab stories, I want to puke all over Durham.”
Really, we’re going to ask a Tar Heel fan to comment about the Cameron Crazies? That’s like asking Sarah Palin to comment on Dennis Kucinich’s single-payer health care plan. I suspect even most Duke haters wish that their team had a home court advantage like Duke does. Unfair advantage? Give me a break.
When one team (Team A) is up by three points and time is running down, it’s a fairly common strategy to foul the opposing team (Team B) before they can get a three-point shot off to tie the game. That way, they have to go to the free throw line where Team A has a great chance of securing the rebound and closing out the game. If Team B makes both free throws, Team A still has a one-point lead and the ball with just a few seconds left on the clock.
That’s what Kansas State tried to do at the end of regulation last night. When the officials failed to call a foul on Denis Clemente and instead whistled Chris Merriewether for clubbing Xavier’s Terrell Holloway after he had entered the act of shooting a three-pointer, Len Elmore said over and over that the refs missed the first foul.
Here is a video of the highlights from the game. The entire video is worth watching, but the sequence I’m talking about starts at about the 0:35 mark.
Doesn’t look like much, does it? Clemente’s left arm did commit a foul on the front of Holloway’s body, but the view of the officials on the baseline and the near sideline were both blocked and the official behind Holloway and Clemente couldn’t see through Holloway’s body to call the foul. Clemente’s right arm just grazed Holloway’s back, and it wasn’t enough for the rear official to blow his whistle. Elmore reiterated his point as CBS showed the replay a few times, but he didn’t account for the position of the officials.
Two areas in which K-State failed in this situation: 1) Clemente did a poor job of taking the foul. He should have essentially wrapped up Holloway and stopped his progress (without tackling him). He needs to be aware of where the officials are — he should have grabbed around Holloway’s waist with his right hand, turned Holloway’s hip, forcing the ref to make the call. 2) Before the possession, Frank Martin should have told his three smartest players to each go up to an official and explain what they wanted to do. “Sir, we’re going to be looking to foul on the floor when they cross half court.” That way, the refs would be aware of K-State’s intentions and would be looking for the foul.
Leading by thee points with 9 seconds left in regulation, the refs ignored Clemente’s foul and instead waited 2 seconds and whistled Chris Merriewether for a foul while Xavier’s Terrell Holloway was pulling the trigger on a three-pointer.
They didn’t ignore the foul — they couldn’t see it due to the positions of the different players on the court. You can’t blow the whistle because you think you see something, you blow it because you see it. And what about Merriewether’s bonehead move to foul Holloway in the act of shooting? Once Holloway got past Clemente, Merriewether should have known at that point to let Holloway go without fouling. Instead, he raked him across the arm and sent him to the line to shoot three free throws.
Ultimately, K-State prevailed, and in that sense we’re lucky — if the Wildcats had lost, half of the state of Kansas would be going ballistic this morning.
Most of the players on this list were stars during the regular season, but for one reason or another, they didn’t capture national attention until making serious noise in the NCAA Tournament.
1. Omar Samhan, St. Mary’s
Hands down the mostquotable player in this year’s tourney, Samhan has led the Gaels on an unlikely Sweet 16 run. But St. Mary’s deserved to get there — the Gaels are better than Richmond and they proved on Saturday that they were better than a slumping Villanova team. The 6’11″ Samhan was the key in both games. He posted 29-12 against Richmond and followed that up with 32-7 against Villanova. Moreover, he has been extremely efficient, hitting 75% from the field. St. Mary’s has the tools to beat Baylor, but the Bears have size and athleticism inside to give Samhan trouble.
2. Ali Farokhmanesh, Northern Iowa
Farokhmanesh is the one player on this list that didn’t average double-digits in scoring during the regular season. But he hit THE biggest shot of the tournament thus far when he drilled a three to give the Panthers a four-point lead in their upset of #1-seed Kansas. The shot was big, but his balls were even bigger. Before nailing the game-sealer, Farokhmanesh had missed seven straight shots in the second half and he launched the three early in the shot clock when UNI was nursing a one-point lead. After averaging just 5.6 points in his previous five games (on 6-29 shooting from deep, no less), the senior guard now has 33 points in two tournament games and has nailed 9-19 shots from long range. Here’s another look at his bracket-busting shot:
